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0.7913004887092411 | TpIaR9jpDSGAsHifxJox | {"NO": 1404.8644342828502, "YES": 854.2337504298077} | 0.8617943085820776 | what-percent-of-delegates-will-dona | 1010.7947233847937 | What percentage of Republican primary delegates will Donald Trump win? | 1725166740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0.3612282637862757 | 9.767266137400998 | False | basic | public | 1661627395673 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to numerical answer in every case. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ex:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasest... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.010191722587574281, "month": 0.010191722587574725} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.8957117044955515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1719668042545 | 1.3 | 14 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1661627396017}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181888525}] | ["us-politics", "donald-trump"] | 0.1236856370909259 | 0.5 | 1719668039393 | 1661627535072 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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4UHdFSVSoMReFci1WjT4 | manifold-5050-2 | 311.53408793721997 | Manifold 50/50 #2 | 1662350340000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.767871704979694 | True | play | MKT | public | 1661660734200 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to a 50% share between the subsidy and one other entry chosen randomly (weighted by probability)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will periodically add to the subsidy s... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662413372116 | 2080.0000000000005 | MarketManagerBot | 1701523549121 | 0 | 13 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "aabde13cd3c1", "prob": 0.1093067864645978, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.969296363568266, "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 16.04693508246441, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4UHdFSVSoMReFci1WjT4", "createdTime": 1661660734892, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1661660734783}] | ["gambling"] | False | 1662339055603 | 1701523548372 | {"9e2958397521": 50, "b4027c2d6036": 50} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31935387899163487 | MFOSNhRMKWqWOVKRfmtG | {"NO": 78.93559228616922, "YES": 165.55589274916446} | 0.14254669350219618 | will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets-afdd60de212e | 65.55589274916446 | Will MattP decide any of my markets were resolved "dishonorably" in 2022? If so, how many? | 1673153940000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.25687215111338 | True | play | MKT | public | 1661666617495 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created by me that @MattP comments had \"dishonorable resolution\" in 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that the term has been used broadly to enco... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674149491025 | 100 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1674149503538 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661666617848}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 16616... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "olivia", "fun", "trust", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "insurance"] | 0.31935387899163487 | 1662466586294 | 1674149501927 | 0.14254669350219618 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.22849283370847376 | BzY5UfnFmn0KPVQHrNlz | {"NO": 503.01830917277584, "YES": 1375.112364711376} | 0 | will-anton-and-zella-me-still-be-li | 6434.796377438253 | Will Anton and Zella (me!) still be life partners in 10 years? | 1673633144081 | 490IyHHOfCgMyERXQQEaWbUyQsA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.884541266722221 | True | play | NO | public | 1661669114389 | Zella Urquhart | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"NO\" if Anton and I break up or de-escalate our relationship in some way that makes the \"life partners\" label feel inaccurate (by our estimation) (even if we end up getting back together later). Resolves to \"YES\" other... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673633144081 | 720 | ZellaUrquhart | 1673728409205 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrNyB7yFLG-DwcOPvOLrQfqqkeY6CsCYftDUCnRiQ=s96-c | 3 | 41 | 0 | 34 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "490IyHHOfCgMyERXQQEaWbUyQsA2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1661669114992}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 0.5 | 1673610647227 | 1673728400325 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | kjpB3GftqyZh9vts7Cbo | {"NO": 30.483379742915904, "YES": 328.0476142847617} | 0 | will-manifold-let-you-set-a-custom | 263.52910534857597 | Will Manifold let you set a custom time zone for the daily events to happen on (by end of September)? | 1664600663749 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.44027985221404 | True | play | NO | public | 1661669202042 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I can set an arbitrary time zone, and the betting streak and daily loans will pay out according to that midnight rather than Manifold's midnight. This resolves to YES even if it defaults to Pacific time unless you change it, and eve... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664600663749 | 100 | MarketManagerBot | 1664594733425 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1661669417631}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1661669411509}, {"n... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1664594733303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5977687713157972 | R9IZTTGNaMee8Ae07Cgp | {"NO": 105, "YES": 96.77027654809379} | 0.6172276171809472 | how-many-square-kilometers-will-be | 5 | How many square kilometers will be deforested from the Brazilian Amazon in 2022? | 1661718339841 | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.88364554538212 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1661686652034 | Franklin Baldo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be resolved using last estimation available at market closing from Imazon.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is the Imazon estimation for 2021:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661718339841 | 100 | FranklinBaldo | 1661718248464 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5977687713157973 | 1661718247087 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CXfU6CzWgUEAAIQNhMgq | which-team-will-win-the-2022-dutch | 70 | Which team will win the 2022 Dutch Grand Prix? | 1662296400000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.872282915004588 | True | play | 641af4eb6669 | public | 1661694973756 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Netherlands.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2022/Netherlands.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:un... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662304671427 | 520 | Ibozz91 | 1661801901366 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "641af4eb6669", "prob": 0.618235294117647, "text": "Red Bull Racing", "index": 0, "poolNo": 97.16386472859415, "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 59.999379837162344, "textFts": "'bull':2 'race':3 'red':1", "contractId": "CXfU6CzWgUEAAIQNhMgq", "createdTime": 1661694973756, "p... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1661694974204}] | ["sports-default"] | 1661801096485 | 1661801898601 | {"641af4eb6669": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.049999999999998816 | WHRCAvnUOyN1cN1EAbkj | {"NO": 101.22913835084742, "YES": 79.28567648929186} | 0.063 | how-many-paperclips-will-the-winner | 354 | How many paperclips will the winner of the LWCW 2022 have? | 1661702657714 | 5OZK9agt1lVKkOGtPrImZxddc6p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.852280967791774 | True | play | MKT | public | 1661699642794 | Sam Brown | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All ~150 people at the Less Wrong Community Weekend in Berlin received 10 paperclips on arrival. People can exchange these however they like. The person with the most paperclips at the end of the weekend wins a soft plush seal! How many paperclips ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661702657714 | 100 | SamBrown | 1661702564573 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmksa2FQYpyxy1GEJli_KSC1X66S71ZExr3_Q53f=s96-c | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.05 | 1661702563208 | 0.063 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18770432812275073 | jLhfoOINhEn5OrII3lm7 | {"NO": 113.42581452711377, "YES": 1433.1543437965872} | 0 | will-personnel-from-north-korea-be | 1553.0694183485266 | Will personnel from North Korea be deployed to Russian-occupied Ukraine by end of February 2023? | 1677650340000 | absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52 | cpmm-1 | 3.4507804539125972 | True | play | NO | public | 1661700248624 | Joe Brenton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if at least 1000 persons from North Korea are sent to Russian-occupied Ukraine by the end of February 2023. Threshold is placement of personnel for any reason, for example, as soldiers, military support, general labor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677672077740 | 220 | JoeBrenton | 1677672030531 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662319559203}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662319557571}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug":... | ["ukraine", "world-default", "wars", "north-korea", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1677632484965 | 1677672026405 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36377029227025637 | tgIUvO6MZ312DJtfcBWc | {"NO": 145.43369679489618, "YES": 130.0599422086058} | 0.39000000000000007 | in-what-year-will-leaded-aviation-f | 138.34179194912485 | In what year will leaded aviation fuel be banned across all US states? | 3187295940000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1661711639319 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When will TEL in Avgas be completely banned in the US?", "type": "text"}]}]} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | GeorgeVii | 1710206869762 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}] | ["health"] | 0.375 | 1701039052489 | 1661714428142 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
moE0VJNzxK5zz9BuY2Gb | how-will-the-debian-resolution-on-n | 50 | How will the Debian resolution on nonfree firmware resolve? | 1664737991406 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.901971679398953 | True | play | 72b111e849b6 | public | 1661718484753 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.debian.org/vote/2022/vote_003", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.debian.org/vote/2022/vote_003", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indig... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664737991406 | 400 | MarketManagerBot | 1664737955566 | 0 | 3 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "3d3dcfeeab4a", "prob": 0.1955555555555556, "text": "A - Enable nonfree by default in all images", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.2835596171829, "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 79.32555206159329, "textFts": "'default':5 'enabl':2 'imag':8 'nonfre':3", "contractId": "moE0VJNzxK5z... | 3 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1661718485219}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1661718560590}, {"name": "Pro... | ["technology-default", "olivia", "programming"] | 1664737955449 | {"72b111e849b6": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2861609613764195 | 7eGhkXddCZh0bek5eF5y | {"NO": 332.2117039455746, "YES": 1077.5125603147696} | 0 | will-this-market-have-the-most-m-in | 1620.3532254778445 | Will this market have the most M$ invested in it of all my markets, current and future, on June 30, 2023? | 1688155200000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0438895878187684 | True | play | NO | public | 1661718986992 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 12, 8:39am: Date and time is subject to change if I can’t see it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10:30 Jun 17: Changed time from 6:00 to 4:00", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1688203017217 | 480 | Ibozz91 | 1688203049422 | 0.4 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661718987362}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.10693821273837306 | 0.5 | 1688152274637 | 1688203046719 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
H6s7KfWjrwnTpqdzKN5h | what-will-be-the-next-agency-to-ann | 87 | What will be the next agency to announce a moon mission? | 1680915695656 | LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.9070309254025615 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1661721500356 | Duncn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will be the next agency, government, or company to announce a NEW mission to send a probe, lander, or rover to the surface of the moon? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 28, 5:19pm: No... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680915695656 | 580 | Duncn | 1680915712773 | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d87c2d8322e2", "prob": 0.4627701420704336, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 41.723314127286336, "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.43659537036672, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H6s7KfWjrwnTpqdzKN5h", "createdTime": 1661721500817, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 7 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1661721500751}] | ["space"] | 1680863734719 | 1680915710572 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
sm7x0yUaWpCmDH1DJpxz | who-are-the-most-trusted-market-cre | 9859.335117068094 | Who are the most trusted market creators on Manifold? | 1697825205561 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.632900881553245 | True | play | MKT | public | 1661727332054 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each answer on this market should be the name of a user who creates a significant number of public markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this market closes, I will select to win all an... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697827719165 | 3919.9999999999955 | IsaacKing | 1697832411003 | 1.6 | 1 | 47 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "70a0024fc7ae", "prob": 0.0012877468924908343, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0022900218243194458, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.7760266937298945, "textFts": "", "contractId": "sm7x0yUaWpCmDH1DJpxz", "createdTime": 1661727332539, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 23 | 37 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661727332453}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cr... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions", "trust", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution"] | 0.1432317942421525 | 1688192339748 | 1697832408882 | {"0a16ff4074da": 3.4482758620689653, "0f48465d8c32": 3.4482758620689653, "24036bf7ff97": 3.4482758620689653, "25b090b7b1ef": 3.4482758620689653, "370ad9be4480": 3.4482758620689653, "42f5b96a88ed": 3.4482758620689653, "4812d593c4ce": 3.4482758620689653, "4aadd19b70d2": 3.4482758620689653, "4dedbca08204": 3.4482758620689... | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FxewD41zWW3SnlREyyKd | who-will-be-the-second-user-banned | 7073.611626659188 | Who will be the second user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022? | 1665866985862 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.647599525521932 | True | play | df45f519705e | public | 1661737454279 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/who-will-be-the-first-user-banned-f", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665866985862 | 1039.9999999999998 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1665869755646 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "61c15a81118d", "prob": 0.004362103251661061, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.020433260767129306, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.663834760478918, "textFts": "", "contractId": "FxewD41zWW3SnlREyyKd", "createdTime": 1661737454732, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":... | 22 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661737454663}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1661737473529}, {"name": "In... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia", "internet", "manibans"] | 1665866920221 | 1665869749856 | {"df45f519705e": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22094093356061578 | rfWT08IrIZhjjL37wiCu | {"NO": 935.1613038525905, "YES": 1152.1267831477717} | 0.18711939875766792 | does-the-ckm-matrix-violate-unitari | 1009.9282692939234 | Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)? | 1893567540000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.672514001178312 | False | basic | public | 1661740004799 | Scott Lawrence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The CKM matrix is a 3-by-3 matrix determining the ability of different flavors of quark to interact with each other. To the extent that the standard model is correct, the matrix must be unitary. In particular, this means that the sum of the squares... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.018107336723928613} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 1.4822975569739938, "platformFee": 0.1290939249489681, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | ScottLawrence | 1717779231187 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 17 | [{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1661740005313}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1661740762395}, {"nam... | ["physics", "science-default", "particle-physics"] | 0.5 | 1717779228068 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.31794910130272563 | wUq7J6otkFjx0vs1OHwk | {"NO": 45.227501200034226, "YES": 660.6785192131913} | 0 | will-equations-be-supported-in-mark | 822.4921697429024 | Will equations be supported in market descriptions in 2022? | 1672556340000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8757751705095034 | True | play | NO | public | 1661740151601 | Scott Lawrence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if, at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "any", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " point in 2022, I am able to create a market with latex embedded in the description, in a documented way.", "type": "tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672559513623 | 140 | ScottLawrence | 1672554063573 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661740152012}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672554063370 | 1661996974712 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5887954930719069 | TWmFl1ja2vwBoFl8cIxt | {"NO": 241.30396475770925, "YES": 114.72722033154125} | 0.7507260529435748 | what-will-be-the-mass-of-the-first | 161 | What will be the mass of the first detected BSM particle, in eV? | 1893567540000 | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | cpmm-1 | 2.6164630616596507e-15 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1661740406692 | Scott Lawrence | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a detection is widely contested, I will use my (somewhat conservative) discretion. In the event of no detection by close time, this will resolve to MKT.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | ScottLawrence | 1703208623465 | 0.1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Physics Forecasting", "slug": "physics", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "0JWy5mbK5ML8EUh5NA3z", "createdTime": 1661740407301}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1661740440631}, {"nam... | ["physics", "science-default", "particle-physics"] | 0.08675907799465923 | 0.5 | 1703208623307 | 1688372022249 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4461844142886468 | xD0BEVtUcOKhUXsIo5Bi | {"NO": 46.16858365352681, "YES": 1213.7211896107456} | 0 | will-there-be-official-confirmation | 1922.9326772060795 | Will there be official confirmation of a Mistborn movie by market close? | 1672549140000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.725884065112848 | True | play | NO | public | 1661742396337 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES immediately upon confirmation by the studio that they are moving forward with a live-action movie adaptation of The Final Empire. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672586510152 | 200 | wasabipesto | 1672495994619 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "W76fvvUmYWiPb6lyYtiI", "createdTime": 1661742396862}, {"name": "Books", "slug": "books", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU", "createdTime": 1661788337557}] | ["cosmere", "books"] | 0.5 | 1672495994458 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6514043538343874 | 5kPaEdN82t8uaoHVIClS | {"NO": 337.83380552162197, "YES": 242.74957142334296} | 0.7222684062382493 | will-bryan-caplans-next-graphic-nov | 819.7145604366497 | Will Bryan Caplan's next graphic novel be a New York Times Bestseller? | 1714625940000 | 5wtfWB2k6iOiIexu4eQUN87ARry1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1661742533846 | Joel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last one was (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.econlib.org/open-borders-is-a-new-york-times-bestseller/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.econlib.org/open-borders-is-a-new-york-times-bestseller... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.1055406713171428, "platformFee": 0.1055406713171428, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 280 | akrasiac | 1714625551134 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoelPollen%2FvPm-32QtjT.0?alt=media&token=edd07ffa-65fa-4cd9-a2a3-68b0dddc9617 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 20 | 18 | [{"name": "📚 Books", "slug": "books", "groupId": "o3T3Wvaoqw90dns1Q7nU"}, {"name": "Bryan Caplan", "slug": "bryan-caplan", "groupId": "a5468aaf-634b-44ad-818b-a33f5df45eda", "createdTime": 1712161278688}, {"name": "Build, Baby Build!", "slug": "build-baby-build", "groupId": "e9a9dd7b-de11-4167-94e6-beeaf7423b91", "cre... | ["books", "bryan-caplan", "build-baby-build"] | 0.5 | 1714625547941 | 1702109271065 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Qtocb2usmBB7uG2ix45I | should-the-manifold-limit-orders-ui | 225 | Should the Manifold limit orders UI say bet 'at' or 'upto'? | 1661826790098 | nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.758016526396825 | True | play | 897468d09c14 | public | 1661747042231 | Akhil Wable | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Limit orders UI currently say 'Bet YES at %' and 'Bet NO at %'. Is one making the bet at a %age or upto a %age?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve 100% to whatever text the limit... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1661826790098 | 320 | akhil | 1720053161621 | 0 | 5 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "504efe51f7bb", "prob": 0.04733727810650889, "text": "at", "color": "#4e46dc", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.5324832382122553, "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 50.96622516902162, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Qtocb2usmBB7uG2ix45I", "createdTime": 1661747042231, "probChanges": {"d... | 5 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "nRdqzwFSO7QOIVFNVtEX2Td8PEw2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661747042722}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1661798152148 | 1661826762970 | {"897468d09c14": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.790063491875519 | sJnxqZZWl88OEPxbdXwX | {"NO": 1125.969702888237, "YES": 1045.459800700241} | 0.8021038995303942 | will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up | 496587.63023216283 | Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up? | 1798779540000 | 7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0.16912792080248984 | 1.5781853689299967 | False | basic | public | 1661749576292 | journcy | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On August 26th, Eliezer tweeted ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1563282607315382273"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/156328260... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 0.012103899530394036, "month": 0.002103899530394693} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 165.39889140612937, "platformFee": 22.224924339463577, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1130 | journcy | 1719893962483 | 6.3 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c | 14 | 481 | 6 | 138 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1661808943631}] | ["ai"] | 0.2387488890691809 | 0.5 | 1719893954022 | 1709948316944 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4999999999999997 | A22paAz1RafQZJS5lqZm | {"NO": 231.6534040671972, "YES": 172.67175572519096} | 0 | will-anyone-write-a-lesswrong-tagwi | 282.00000000000006 | Will anyone write a LessWrong tag/wiki page this week? | 1662350340000 | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.631448877294136 | True | play | NO | public | 1661775782111 | Multicore | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tracked at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tags/dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/tags/dashboard", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662350609020 | 200 | Multicore | 1662131594243 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1662131590995 | 1662054880799 | 0.5729383850021746 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2721502246538236 | QPmd0NnVgcVCZ2kAIoBf | {"NO": 835.5298059549777, "YES": 1426.316989985913} | 0.17967877742718427 | will-the-diablo-canyon-nuclear-powe | 978.7970533834326 | Will the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant be fully shut down at the end of 2025? | 1767247200000 | uACZd1dXrzedEp383VGTPkr2pfw1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.66278008396085 | False | basic | public | 1661781993226 | enobufs | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve yes, both reactors must be shut down at the end of the day on Dec 31, 2025. As in no longer operational - a temporary shut down, e.g. for maintenance, does not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "con... | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.007244067362572604} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.6984087214491967, "platformFee": 0.065100817052105, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | enobufs | 1718179195981 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmnTrpp8AhinjYBjlHa1rjh66Cfu40qGmFVOzhn=s96-c | 13 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Nuclear Power", "slug": "nuclear-power", "userId": "NnFJuUAa1eNnR8ydYGfdJ7DvFdy1", "groupId": "GAhreYQjzbNxlucwUxQ2", "createdTime": 1684775113721}] | ["nuclear-power"] | 0.5 | 1718179192824 | 1700612074352 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44583034405630495 | k9AOvyGXhqsxVnn7szTv | {"NO": 113.0767729180484, "YES": 2941.3775097635244} | 0 | will-tanium-go-public-by-2024 | 4360.020069370461 | Will Tanium go public by 2024? | 1704085140000 | ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4807096128083752 | True | play | NO | public | 1661788179433 | Treldman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Tanium is listed on a public stock exchange in the United States before the end of 2023. This can be done via IPO, DPO, reverse merger/SPAC acquisition, etc. Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704151071833 | 500 | Treldman | 1704151071998 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ZaUdTpJV2oVZDu1kG2Sem3a9L8h1", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1661788180385}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736... | ["wall-street-bets", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1703921487348 | 1704151066253 | 0.03 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999994 | nODngqnA8Bonx02Zs2xC | {"NO": 351, "YES": 28.49002849002854} | 1 | will-manifold-add-pictures-this-yea | 251 | Will manifold add pictures this year?
Will I figure out how to post a picture into a question?
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0.3252133586414144 | 7boeUetBblWriUkODCNV | {"NO": 37.43302019149102, "YES": 593.6240703077323} | 0 | will-tudor-dixon-win-by-at-least-5 | 2119.4428538051443 | Will Tudor Dixon win by at least 5 percentage points in the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election? | 1667980800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.229885591441954 | True | play | NO | public | 1661922000743 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668102900200 | 120 | IsaacKing | 1667977202509 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.5 | 1667977202378 | 0.02949464691603064 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | nN5DDxAquGMWEIOek6q2 | {"NO": 110.55415967851326, "YES": 90.45340337332912} | 0.56 | poll-did-you-know-gorbachev-did-a-p | 348.0671733897245 | Poll: Did you know Gorbachev did a Pizza Hut commercial? | 1662008340000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2429172517264866 | True | play | MKT | public | 1661923491059 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vote by writing YES or NO in the comments. This market will resolve to the percentage of YES votes. #RIP", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/cUTIc-f1h3E", "frameborder": 0, ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662009777822 | 100 | SG | 1662008557034 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 30 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1661923491477}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1662008068998 | 1662008555165 | 0.56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.29271665731327334 | GzMwyXauCFlTqUIqzbPx | {"NO": 104.52595768377671, "YES": 1229.2950361209296} | 0 | will-my-friends-agniv-and-audrey-st | 3499.7388167033073 | Will my friends Agniv and Audrey still be dating on January 1, 2023? | 1672561402693 | uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.403780589314366 | True | play | NO | public | 1661923870896 | alleycat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves as you’d expect. Agniv and Audrey refer to the Agniv (", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "jtyAWBvjRsTckA46ckZCElO5X1g2", "label": "AsterTyche"}}, {"text": ") and Audrey (", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672561402693 | 280 | alleycat | 1671239685509 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665542606081}, {"name": "Proofniks", "slug": "proofniks", "userId": "uggVm93ahZfiMWMHoktijFsut8j2", "groupId": "HWg8Z5SraHRjoEjHCcIJ", "createdTime": 1661923871322}, {"name": "Sex and love"... | ["proofniks", "dating", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1671239685360 | 1668574271901 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
QdqvzIgsummEFjFlVjmN | who-is-the-most-well-known-person-w-370aa60f8030 | 94 | Who is the most well known person who will comment on this market? | 1664555490834 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.843903662697684 | True | play | 5ff12c296dae | public | 1661927316900 | Mr Stone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is an improved version of this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/stone/who-is-the-most-well-known-person-w", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664555490834 | 300 | stone | 1664555476917 | 0 | 5 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6c7d0b7d6b0e", "prob": 0.2657030502710171, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 38.359257294680724, "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 106.00964345957966, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QdqvzIgsummEFjFlVjmN", "createdTime": 1661927317254, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 3 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661978168270}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 1664555476800 | {"5ff12c296dae": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.39887850548887066 | DEUtVJSk4g0HLQeT1JLU | {"NO": 77.68437325011132, "YES": 1520.448469005962} | 0 | will-robin-hanson-tweet-about-manif | 4056.037885310931 | Will Robin Hanson tweet about Manifold before the end of 2022? | 1672552740000 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1801668087706556 | True | play | NO | public | 1661927429938 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The tweet must either mention Manifold Markets by name or link to a market.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672628171316 | 300 | SG | 1672558810877 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 43 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1661927430322}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672550509843 | 1672558808074 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ufsDVUelnSPHaCeOO9Rp | {"NO": 240.0000000000001, "YES": 41.6666666666667} | 0.8520710059171598 | did-austin-actually-have-had-the-mo | 200.70967741935488 | Did Austin ACTUALLY have the most referrals in July? | 1662620340000 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6624610526209063 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1661931188339 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's some reason to believe that I improperly resolved this market; if we go ahead and actually check by querying our Firestore db, will I be validated? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676056971113 | 100 | Austin | 1662552346926 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1661934095057}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "cre... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1662552346811 | 1661951080877 | 0.85 |
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