p
string
id
string
pool
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prob
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slug
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volume
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dpmPool
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question
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realAnte
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closeTime
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creatorId
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mechanism
string
startPool
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totalBets
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string
elasticity
string
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string
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phantomShares
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volume24Hours
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string
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popularityScore
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creatorAvatarUrl
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likedByUserCount
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uniqueBettorCount
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cfmmConversionTime
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uniqueBettorCountDay
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addAnswersMode
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answers
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bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
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closeEmailsSent
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conversionScore
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creatorCreatedTime
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deleted
string
followerCount
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freshnessScore
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groupLinks
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groupSlugs
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importanceScore
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initialProbability
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isPolitics
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loverUserId1
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loverUserId2
string
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nonPredictive
string
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resolutions
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wasDpm
string
0.49999999999999994
TZFiArvQ2ypTKihbNQlI
{"NO": 103.84455452492236, "YES": 96.29777936598529}
0
will-we-see-a-10th-gen-base-model-i
54.611085985948655
Will we see a 10th Gen base model iPad at the "Far Out" event?
1662570000000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.773300265105995
True
play
NO
public
1662149673509
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662598319318
100
Predictor
1662552265577
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
5
0
1
5
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149673926}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1662552265366
0.5188535204227472
0.5000000000000012
eyf7b9xdxZnDuhzvRMH1
{"NO": 170.1997862905882, "YES": 58.754480354790694}
1
will-the-apple-watch-series-8-have
958.7640722248158
Will the Apple Watch Series 8 have temperature sensing capabilities?
1662570000000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.912360245402072
True
play
YES
public
1662149678037
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662598298676
100
Predictor
1662581547045
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
0
23
0
1
25
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149678483}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1662552252376
1662581544951
0.7433789672686305
0.5000000000000001
wTI4qjZWxjtp9g8iBRcw
{"NO": 159.09909909909913, "YES": 62.853907134767894}
1
will-apple-show-off-the-apple-watch
80
Will Apple show off the Apple Watch Pro at the "Far Out" event?
1662570000000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.8794475244231776
True
play
YES
public
1662149685647
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662598251924
100
Predictor
1662552257908
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
6
0
1
6
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149686061}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1662552257730
0.716814346418268
0.5
DmPFSYmNaRk28WUQX3l8
{"NO": 182.93103448275852, "YES": 54.6654099905749}
1
will-apple-unveil-the-airpods-pro-2
115
Will Apple unveil the AirPods Pro 2 at the "Far Out" event?
1662570000000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
2.9522538800514675
True
play
YES
public
1662149694773
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662598275188
100
Predictor
1662552270953
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
9
0
1
9
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149695120}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1662552269687
0.7699232826831706
0.3229743533946917
k2oHlQprADvf5rOqYxFS
{"NO": 966.677479202742, "YES": 1049.701167833537}
0.3052264247507942
will-a-humancreated-pathogen-infect
110.74679743864775
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
1893484800000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
9.58692544759758
False
basic
public
1662150124150
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count. It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild. Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greate...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704698626491
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
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0
6
0.5
1704698626345
0.15533551456339406
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{"NO": 159.69477861878104, "YES": 1193.5028847657952}
0
will-russia-gain-control-of-kharkov
2313.318667520561
Will Russia gain control of Kharkov by the end of 2022?
1672523940000
IzhHEjwPN4OinzXg8MM0LgPfhu22
cpmm-1
2.631950142682103
True
play
NO
public
1662151581829
Cristian Dobre
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Russia holds control of Kharkov at the end of 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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0
1676744067897
260
CristianDobre
1676744065637
0
https://firebasestorage.…915-e0c4ab1c4c07
15
0
10
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662317706341}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "IzhHEjwPN4OinzXg8MM0LgPfhu22", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662151582315}, {"name": "Wars", "slu...
["ukraine", "world-default", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1672513596110
1676744063640
False
0.02
XJ9MoP9SmMwUHwvl3KbF
when-will-spacex-be-more-valuable-t
223.25839890687092
When will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla?
2085458340000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1662152511146
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of any large raise or valuation event. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1702523198216
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
11
0
DISABLED
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6
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662152511557}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807369346...
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0.1169263845374188
1702523197997
True
True
xz1LVDZC2SLGXuakWlTm
who-will-be-the-largest-players-in
1060.888509130234
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
1925013540000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1662153039070
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 5.538863400797972, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Gigacasting
1718985006828
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
2
24
0
ANYONE
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14
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662153039387}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": ...
["technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"]
1718985003609
1718655223291
True
True
0.25454375517366534
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{"NO": 73.02013422508685, "YES": 1987.3353092951415}
0
will-russia-restart-the-nord-stream
2716.952757226739
Will Russia restart the Nord Stream 1 pipeline before the start of winter?
1671685140000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
2.9994833453372807
True
play
NO
public
1662153560519
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is restarted before the first day of winter 12/21/22. Resolves NO if the pipeline remains shutdown past 12/21. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671727857797
392.63920003881145
BTE
1670737025478
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
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0
1
20
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["global-macro", "russia", "nord-stream", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1670737025302
1662558478157
False
0.01
0.546535503626304
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{"NO": 188.74391656574247, "YES": 107.05060297185683}
0.6800000000000008
will-the-next-public-health-emergen
138.77414716434643
Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?
1925791140000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
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10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662153747518
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything as coincidental as these will count for a 100% resolution, while generic “pandemic preparedness” without similar timing/virus-type settles close to 0%. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":...
BINARY
{"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
Gigacasting
1705557182296
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
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0
5
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0.5
1705557182170
1662153834096
0.4999999999999998
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{"NO": 145.77379737113276, "YES": 68.5994340570036}
0
will-i-spend-more-than-30-hours-wri
469.18599854365186
Will I spend more than 30 hours writing code for Nomic in September?
1664596740000
rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2
cpmm-1
0
2.8431938137923902
True
play
NO
public
1662153777208
cos
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" if I spend more than 30 hours editing the contents of files which get pushed to production before the end of the month (where \"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664640583529
189.35153644067245
cos
1664580984871
0
https://firebasestorage.…83f-4e72668503f9
8
0
1
8
[{"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662153777676}, {"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1662153890204}]
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0.5
1664580984786
0.68
0.5000000000000001
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{"NO": 78.28813612588125, "YES": 127.73327473170103}
0.3625
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170.36644751719098
How many lovers will Sinclair have at the end of 2022
1672559940000
0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2
cpmm-1
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2.802471416651122
True
play
MKT
public
1662153782194
Sinclair Chen
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PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673944058804
100
Sinclair
1673944096992
0
https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32
0
7
0
4
8
[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664323436240}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822553}]
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1668805192300
1673944092184
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given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f
14082.069077958196
Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for another?
1693281540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
1.8765807714286091
True
play
YES
public
1662155125161
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
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0
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0
1693285740273
540
LivInTheLookingGlass
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39
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["personal-goals", "olivia", "dating", "sex-and-love"]
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1693273741127
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{"NO": 1304.3609968051007, "YES": 764.7467321098795}
0.6471713961241521
given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f-0dde6bfd1962
3851.047569457222
Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?
1787975940000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
9.620252595108344
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basic
public
1662155182206
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
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LivInTheLookingGlass
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["personal-goals", "dating", "lgbtqia", "olivia", "sex-and-love"]
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{"NO": 20.783790003808292, "YES": 481.1441993095421}
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will-the-manifold-api-links-in-the
410.5993904340477
Will the Manifold API links in the description work in one week?
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k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
3.897321266900777
True
play
NO
public
1662157695293
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
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