p string | id string | pool string | prob string | slug string | volume string | dpmPool string | question string | realAnte string | closeTime string | creatorId string | mechanism string | startPool string | totalBets string | dailyScore string | elasticity string | isResolved string | marketTier string | resolution string | visibility string | createdTime string | creatorName string | description string | outcomeType string | probChanges string | subsidyPool string | totalShares string | collectedFees string | phantomShares string | volume24Hours string | resolutionTime string | totalLiquidity string | creatorUsername string | lastUpdatedTime string | popularityScore string | creatorAvatarUrl string | likedByUserCount string | uniqueBettorCount string | cfmmConversionTime string | uniqueBettorCountDay string | addAnswersMode string | answers string | bountyLeft string | bountyTxns string | closeEmailsSent string | conversionScore string | coverImageUrl string | creatorCreatedTime string | deleted string | followerCount string | freshnessScore string | groupLinks string | groupSlugs string | importanceScore string | initialProbability string | isPolitics string | isRanked string | isSubsidized string | lastBetTime string | lastCommentTime string | loverUserId1 string | loverUserId2 string | matchCreatorId string | nonPredictive string | resolutionProbability string | resolutions string | resolverId string | shouldAnswersSumToOne string | sort string | totalBounty string | unlistedById string | username string | viewCount string | wasDpm string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.49999999999999994 | TZFiArvQ2ypTKihbNQlI | {"NO": 103.84455452492236, "YES": 96.29777936598529} | 0 | will-we-see-a-10th-gen-base-model-i | 54.611085985948655 | Will we see a 10th Gen base model iPad at the "Far Out" event? | 1662570000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.773300265105995 | True | play | NO | public | 1662149673509 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662598319318 | 100 | Predictor | 1662552265577 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149673926}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1662552265366 | 0.5188535204227472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | eyf7b9xdxZnDuhzvRMH1 | {"NO": 170.1997862905882, "YES": 58.754480354790694} | 1 | will-the-apple-watch-series-8-have | 958.7640722248158 | Will the Apple Watch Series 8 have temperature sensing capabilities? | 1662570000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.912360245402072 | True | play | YES | public | 1662149678037 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662598298676 | 100 | Predictor | 1662581547045 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 25 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149678483}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1662552252376 | 1662581544951 | 0.7433789672686305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | wTI4qjZWxjtp9g8iBRcw | {"NO": 159.09909909909913, "YES": 62.853907134767894} | 1 | will-apple-show-off-the-apple-watch | 80 | Will Apple show off the Apple Watch Pro at the "Far Out" event? | 1662570000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8794475244231776 | True | play | YES | public | 1662149685647 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662598251924 | 100 | Predictor | 1662552257908 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149686061}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1662552257730 | 0.716814346418268 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | DmPFSYmNaRk28WUQX3l8 | {"NO": 182.93103448275852, "YES": 54.6654099905749} | 1 | will-apple-unveil-the-airpods-pro-2 | 115 | Will Apple unveil the AirPods Pro 2 at the "Far Out" event? | 1662570000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9522538800514675 | True | play | YES | public | 1662149694773 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if it is announced/presented at/during Apple's \"Far Out\" event on September 7, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662598275188 | 100 | Predictor | 1662552270953 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662149695120}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1662552269687 | 0.7699232826831706 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3229743533946917 | k2oHlQprADvf5rOqYxFS | {"NO": 966.677479202742, "YES": 1049.701167833537} | 0.3052264247507942 | will-a-humancreated-pathogen-infect | 110.74679743864775 | Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? | 1893484800000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.58692544759758 | False | basic | public | 1662150124150 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count. It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild. Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greate... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1704698626491 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | 1704698626345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.15533551456339406 | eUioJGoy4dPIXv9ZsoB3 | {"NO": 159.69477861878104, "YES": 1193.5028847657952} | 0 | will-russia-gain-control-of-kharkov | 2313.318667520561 | Will Russia gain control of Kharkov by the end of 2022? | 1672523940000 | IzhHEjwPN4OinzXg8MM0LgPfhu22 | cpmm-1 | 2.631950142682103 | True | play | NO | public | 1662151581829 | Cristian Dobre | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Russia holds control of Kharkov at the end of 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676744067897 | 260 | CristianDobre | 1676744065637 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 14 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662317706341}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "IzhHEjwPN4OinzXg8MM0LgPfhu22", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1662151582315}, {"name": "Wars", "slu... | ["ukraine", "world-default", "wars", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672513596110 | 1676744063640 | False | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
XJ9MoP9SmMwUHwvl3KbF | when-will-spacex-be-more-valuable-t | 223.25839890687092 | When will SpaceX be more valuable than Tesla? | 2085458340000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1662152511146 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of any large raise or valuation event. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1702523198216 | 1.1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ab5ba5d8a6ec", "prob": 0.04264994679316154, "text": "2022-2025", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.92290016442613, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 222.73624505207297, "textFts": "'-2025':2 '2022':1", "contractId": "XJ9MoP9SmMwUHwvl3KbF", "createdTime": 1662152511146, "probChanges":... | 6 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662152511557}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807369346... | ["technology-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.1169263845374188 | 1702523197997 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
xz1LVDZC2SLGXuakWlTm | who-will-be-the-largest-players-in | 1060.888509130234 | Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030? | 1925013540000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1662153039070 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Miles driven, regardless of “level of autonomy”; will resolve to the top-3 players based on their relative market share. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 5.538863400797972, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1718985006828 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f6d12e09d63f", "prob": 0.050000000000000364, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.566319127671436, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 48.76006342575691, "textFts": "", "contractId": "xz1LVDZC2SLGXuakWlTm", "createdTime": 1662153039459, "probChanges": {"day": -0.0375471140... | 14 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662153039387}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": ... | ["technology-default", "selfdriving-vehicles"] | 1718985003609 | 1718655223291 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25454375517366534 | 3mc1rWgs7glAsUacMhDx | {"NO": 73.02013422508685, "YES": 1987.3353092951415} | 0 | will-russia-restart-the-nord-stream | 2716.952757226739 | Will Russia restart the Nord Stream 1 pipeline before the start of winter? | 1671685140000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9994833453372807 | True | play | NO | public | 1662153560519 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is restarted before the first day of winter 12/21/22. Resolves NO if the pipeline remains shutdown past 12/21. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1671727857797 | 392.63920003881145 | BTE | 1670737025478 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 20 | [{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664652704197}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662153560876}, {"name": "Nord St... | ["global-macro", "russia", "nord-stream", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1670737025302 | 1662558478157 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.546535503626304 | GDyGJwmWroWOosqSDWRA | {"NO": 188.74391656574247, "YES": 107.05060297185683} | 0.6800000000000008 | will-the-next-public-health-emergen | 138.77414716434643 | Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation? | 1925791140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662153747518 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything as coincidental as these will count for a 100% resolution, while generic “pandemic preparedness” without similar timing/virus-type settles close to 0%. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":... | BINARY | {"day": 6.661338147750939e-16, "week": 6.661338147750939e-16, "month": 6.661338147750939e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | Gigacasting | 1705557182296 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1705557182170 | 1662153834096 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | qEBmBotE2nXcFjmXqLpq | {"NO": 145.77379737113276, "YES": 68.5994340570036} | 0 | will-i-spend-more-than-30-hours-wri | 469.18599854365186 | Will I spend more than 30 hours writing code for Nomic in September? | 1664596740000 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8431938137923902 | True | play | NO | public | 1662153777208 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" if I spend more than 30 hours editing the contents of files which get pushed to production before the end of the month (where \"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664640583529 | 189.35153644067245 | cos | 1664580984871 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662153777676}, {"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1662153890204}] | ["nomic-garden", "nomic"] | 0.5 | 1664580984786 | 0.68 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4ZpMfuw5TjKxPzJB44zE | {"NO": 78.28813612588125, "YES": 127.73327473170103} | 0.3625 | how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have-4e4e5709d839 | 170.36644751719098 | How many lovers will Sinclair have at the end of 2022 | 1672559940000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.802471416651122 | True | play | MKT | public | 1662153782194 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as this market:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Sinclair/how-many-lovers-will-sinclair-have", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "c... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673944058804 | 100 | Sinclair | 1673944096992 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664323436240}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822553}] | ["dating", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1668805192300 | 1673944092184 | 0.3625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8508023481752561 | EHx9MZTWTGqbBXzYOITu | {"NO": 5048.770011571784, "YES": 313.9102426351773} | 1 | given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f | 14082.069077958196 | Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for another? | 1693281540000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8765807714286091 | True | play | YES | public | 1662155125161 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1693285740273 | 540 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1693273741244 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665204318285}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1662155147873}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "s... | ["personal-goals", "olivia", "dating", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1693273741127 | 1692996292805 | 0.99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5181682322083877 | L8Bp5PgNLKN17YFxrvXY | {"NO": 1304.3609968051007, "YES": 764.7467321098795} | 0.6471713961241521 | given-i-have-been-with-my-partner-f-0dde6bfd1962 | 3851.047569457222 | Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5? | 1787975940000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.620252595108344 | False | basic | public | 1662155182206 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.4379614262938307, "platformFee": 0.4379614262938307, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1715858916897 | 0 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1665204507676}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1665204501788}, {"name": "Dating", "slug":... | ["personal-goals", "dating", "lgbtqia", "olivia", "sex-and-love"] | 0.5 | 1715858913252 | 1701664594332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999999 | 7KbSfGrwOpMQwX5xClMg | {"NO": 20.783790003808292, "YES": 481.1441993095421} | 0 | will-the-manifold-api-links-in-the | 410.5993904340477 | Will the Manifold API links in the description work in one week? | 1662600002061 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.897321266900777 | True | play | NO | public | 1662157695293 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/groups/by-id/0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/groups/by-id/0AKCB... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662600002061 | 100 | MarketManagerBot | 1662729808339 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662157713564}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1662157705219}, {"name": "He... | ["bugs", "olivia", "manifold-6748e065087e", "management-of-olivias-bot"] | 0.5 | 1662599962163 | 1662729802999 | 0.09640945099618273 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3368812502049711 | fbFU3vD2CquZc0d1l8hP | {"NO": 106.98161800535532, "YES": 576.8528856919615} | 0 | when-will-the-next-mission-to-jupit | 1007.7819347621693 | When will the next mission to Jupiter be launched? | 1682790963141 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2001500929663362 | True | play | MKT | public | 1662158152295 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fractional year at which a mission to the Jovian system is launched. This includes flyby missions, orbiters, landers, or any of these types of mission to a moon in orbit of Jupiter. This does not include any bodies which are in res... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1682790963141 | 220 | MarketManagerBot | 1682790981929 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662158219725}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1662158185531}, {"name": "Space", "slug... | ["space", "olivia", "world-default", "science-default"] | 0.5887355477484346 | 1681482055363 | 1682790978076 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3002567455746574 | GgQNFQH7BoQBXSYDjOhd | {"NO": 54.309780300590916, "YES": 639.9931801991636} | 0 | will-my-mortgage-fall-through-at-th | 656.2933133444735 | Will my mortgage fall through at the last minute before closing? | 1677632349117 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8121247249396033 | True | play | NO | public | 1662158310385 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm buying a home in New York. Assume I get a mortgage approval. Resolves YES if the mortgage falls through less than 15 days before the closing date. Resolves NO if we close without that happening. Resolves N/A if we don't end up buying the house ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677632349117 | 140 | jack | 1676389817577 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 7 | [{"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422786522}, {"name": "Jack's personal housing questions", "slug": "jacks-personal-housing-questions", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "ff0lwR2PCDUq... | ["housing-markets", "jacks-personal-housing-questions"] | 0.5 | 1676389817432 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37405953776039264 | dmHX3COi4mPdabJV2RmC | {"NO": 4241.08749351301, "YES": 110.45029216390684} | 1 | will-gemini-earn-default-in-2022 | 11704.670831442929 | Will Gemini Earn default in 2022? | 1669217856414 | Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0922478274380274 | True | basic | YES | public | 1662159471312 | Infohazard Assessor | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, has a program that earns interest on lent out cryptocurrency. This market resolves as true if funds lent out through Gemini Earn are not redeemed as promised. Similar resolution criteria as the crypto counterparty... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669217856414 | 1774 | metacontrarian | 1669165773156 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1662159471693}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1669165773058 | 1668642100452 | 0.9582403928732854 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8901788678245706 | 0HfszGrz0rfUSOFhqYm0 | {"NO": 3016.971987674394, "YES": 110.77285979056217} | 1 | will-us-mortgage-rates-in-late-octo | 2893.600307122669 | Will US mortgage rates on 10/27 be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)? | 1667015940000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.753908377568401 | True | play | YES | public | 1662160186674 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "class": "no-unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667045763256 | 220 | jack | 1667045760245 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1662160187082}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1663422786523... | ["economics-default", "housing-markets", "jacks-personal-housing-questions"] | 0.5 | 1666979510878 | 1667045758100 | 0.9954907123606553 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1860557509080846 | d5ykzhk9WWpVc1MqR3Zl | {"NO": 921.7051040911299, "YES": 1221.0000071010434} | 0.14716073625891857 | will-commaai-be-worth-more-than-way | 230.35712395363885 | Will CommaAI be worth more than Waymo? | 1914728340000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.772785404893373 | False | basic | public | 1662161991392 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ever true, otherwise final ratio between valuations. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last reported at $500M / $30B (1.7%)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-16, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1704150080227 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662161991864}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1704150080097 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.06597393052139469 | T7kR0sVS0ewMt1xVmODu | {"NO": 616.1305256502873, "YES": 401.7799424901063} | 0 | crime-reduction-by-sashworthhayes | 621.4533416232157 | "Crime Reduction" by Sashworthhayes | 1662595200000 | XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4993997967138175 | True | play | NO | public | 1662163603710 | Cause Exploration Prizes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Sashworthhayes's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Crime Reduction", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cPDptuFTiCLr8XXkL/cause-exploration-prizes-crime-reduction", "class... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662749980499 | 600 | CEPBot | 1662583602442 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Predict CEP Winners", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1662163604179}] | ["predict-cep"] | 0.1 | 1662583602239 | 1662352289014 | 0.0977313103033663 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09999999999999998 | OzLordZIcGVbdEzkcDNg | {"NO": 92.03600604837567, "YES": 211.04745738609643} | 0 | expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and | 697 | "Expand Access to ADHD Treatment and Fund more Research" by DeeptiBoddapati | 1662595200000 | XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 7.785988455871852 | True | play | NO | public | 1662163606599 | Cause Exploration Prizes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will DeeptiBoddapati's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Expand Access to ADHD Treatment and Fund more Research", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gE3MRaCmtGWBMTfB3/cause-exp... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662749991434 | 100 | CEPBot | 1662594460273 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Predict CEP Winners", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1662163607051}] | ["predict-cep"] | 0.1 | 1662594458852 | 0.046215270073273196 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.10000000000000012 | NXFR7lvuIPlV4UMvzLKJ | {"NO": 102.06905839198478, "YES": 83.16738091198769} | 0 | indoor-air-quality-to-reduce-infect | 676.3437939652961 | "Indoor Air Quality to Reduce Infectious Respiratory Disease" by @GavrielK | 1662595200000 | XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.829598849508292 | True | play | NO | public | 1662163611262 | Cause Exploration Prizes | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "label": "GavrielK"}}, {"text": "'s post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Indoor Air Quality to Reduce Infectious Respiratory Disease", "type": "text", "mar... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662749972554 | 100 | CEPBot | 1662605355553 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Predict CEP Winners", "slug": "predict-cep", "userId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "groupId": "cMcpBQ2p452jEcJD2SFw", "createdTime": 1662163611551}] | ["predict-cep"] | 0.1 | 1662589964728 | 1662605353551 | 0.12000000000000002 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5219885236286314 | Nuh3eM8uxkXDnXqMRP0k | {"NO": 128.94076478136105, "YES": 111.32506580532905} | 0.5584588041696846 | will-liang-mongsong-work-at-a-semic | 49.730114688136446 | Will Liang Mong-Song work at a semiconductor company other than SMIC within the next 5 years? | 1820012340000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662164822063 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.2990074176100935, "platformFee": 0.2990074176100935, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 120 | GeorgeVii | 1715580508070 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1662164822537}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807369357... | ["semiconductors", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1715580504794 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000443 | uJagz9GiIGa2CsCJC5vt | {"NO": 5165.145141964638, "YES": 1.936054016905783} | 1 | will-bbby-stock-price-close-under-1 | 5310.142076224979 | Will BBBY stock price close under $10 on September 6 2022? | 1662490800000 | AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.101008714860605 | True | play | YES | public | 1662166446055 | NoRespect | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Use this market in conjunction with the market below to create advanced options plays [straddles etc]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662511789626 | 100 | NoRespect | 1662488435153 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "AAT00aRB1xNPiXzCAKekJp4yWQ42", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1662166446659}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1662488434198 | 0.9996253099296346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.058005480400730315 | uZx2t1xyaQ3sXABNijaA | {"NO": 203.6962589110554, "YES": 1897.5051377915445} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-markets-to-be-d | 3015.309977982436 | Will Manifold allow markets to be draft/closed on creation by 2022-12-02? | 1670043540000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.9400450454185325 | True | play | NO | public | 1662168592500 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if markets can be (or must be) created in a \"closed\" or \"draft\" status. While \"draft\", they would act similarly (in my judgment) to \"closed\" markets which have passed the closed date. People can make comments, the creator can e... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670117614080 | 300 | MartinRandall | 1670107622437 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662168593050}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1670041467880 | 1670107618497 | 0.006566884486942176 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4wCIqyx1j5ntePpPFaL8 | {"NO": 59.7988004708222, "YES": 167.22743468540517} | 0 | will-cwilbur-attempt-suicide-tomorr | 125.82672977696048 | Will c!Wilbur attempt suicide tomorrow? | 1662238320000 | cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9033505320000725 | True | play | NO | public | 1662174510269 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "don't place any bets after his stream starts, that's cheating.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "things that do count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662240451052 | 100 | hearts | 1662238234004 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1662174579255}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.5 | 1662236294659 | 1662238231944 | 0.5403682154035153 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | Ij16OhXmjrYa5cYuknal | {"NO": 145, "YES": 68.96551724137929} | 1 | will-i-be-satisfied-with-the-writin | 420 | Will I be satisfied with the writing of c!Wilbur's finale? | 1662244629862 | cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.841224985361577 | True | play | YES | public | 1662174769352 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this question resolves to \"yes\" if I start brainstorming how to make it happen in various AUs, and to \"no\" if I instead go \"well that was fun to watch but I will be ignoring it for most purposes\" or \"well that was bad but luckily I can just ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662244629862 | 100 | hearts | 1662242271936 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1662174769857}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.5 | 1662242270704 | 0.16839916839916844 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | c7EU7OYVYG0W1IkOdO0x | {"NO": 25, "YES": 400} | 0 | will-cwilbur-kill-or-attempt-to-kil | 300 | Will c!Wilbur kill or attempt to kill c!Eret in his finale stream? | 1662240581176 | cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.66516292749662 | True | play | NO | public | 1662174949515 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662240581176 | 100 | hearts | 1662236325209 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1662174949954}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.5 | 1662236323982 | 0.0588235294117647 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5358257569495585 | Y3HdpSGhnp2E6OemtEW3 | {"NO": 531.4251158817616, "YES": 32.28724753151624} | 1 | will-25-million-americans-get-one-o | 1321.5055608938223 | Will 25 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022? | 1667578128036 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3600841093011997 | True | play | YES | public | 1662175640503 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both Moderna and Pfizer had their updated boosters approved by the FDA this week. This question resolves YES if combined these two updated vaccines are administered to 25 million Americans by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667578128036 | 120 | BTE | 1667578093080 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Health", "slug": "health-661e51f1f3dc", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "VSc4PVPgjRz7XUbByPz4", "createdTime": 1662181397405}, {"name": "Covid", "slug": "covid", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "iGfuM2jmlUwyQVMGyDbi", "createdTime": 1662181429794}] | ["health-661e51f1f3dc", "covid"] | 0.5 | 1667577406134 | 1667578091123 | 0.95 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1c4YP1zxdvDhB1u4J2yh | {"NO": 83.33333333333331, "YES": 120} | 0 | will-ccwilbur-announce-the-time-his | 20 | Will cc!Wilbur announce the time his finale is going to happen more than an hour in advance? | 1662232108393 | cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7891863278691718 | True | play | NO | public | 1662175806280 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he does not announce a time before going live, this question resolves to \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662232108393 | 100 | hearts | 1662231834609 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1662175856753}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.5 | 1662231834418 | 0.45248868778280543 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | jsO90VkR2Rl4mTLbSdJF | {"NO": 135, "YES": 74.07407407407412} | 0.6457041629760849 | assuming-ccwilbur-announces-a-time | 35 | Assuming cc!Wilbur announces a time for his finale in advance, will he be late to it? | 1662233130964 | cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8174521277235938 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662176033956 | Will | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "this question resolves to \"YES\" even if he is only a minute late, because I'm an impatient fuck. it will be judged by the time he goes live/switches from offline to online chat, not by the time the lore actually starts; a 'starting soon' screen c... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662233130964 | 100 | hearts | 1662232179150 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "MCYT", "slug": "mcyt", "userId": "cwu7Ub6HsTcEa6teYIKdV6vRCpG2", "groupId": "x5sZpL8vt0KhtrtwO2uQ", "createdTime": 1662176034447}] | ["mcyt"] | 0.5 | 1662232178947 | 1662232079062 | 0.6097560975609755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000012 | 1h2OBIYVS5xAQP4jDkko | {"NO": 1399.9478235150027, "YES": 7.1431233593348225} | 1 | will-nomic-garden-feature-dynamic-e | 3282.1288765126933 | Will Nomic Garden feature dynamic elements in September? | 1662957210663 | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.431295537066483 | True | play | YES | public | 1662180923947 | cos | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" if the website available at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nomic.garden", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662957210663 | 287.9524283250198 | cos | 1662957197500 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Nomic Garden", "slug": "nomic-garden", "userId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "groupId": "vAEfB4ijB8QlYdDYetaN", "createdTime": 1662180924406}, {"name": "Nomic", "slug": "nomic", "groupId": "P67UKUCwcJP2SJ36nxFB", "createdTime": 1691644857213}] | ["nomic-garden", "nomic"] | 0.5 | 1662957196149 | 1662946811345 | False | 0.961530741977169 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ejd0aR4WQUdz9SrMLTXI | what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-lin | 112.76408214317766 | What will be the outcome of the linked market on race and intelligence? | 1893473940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662185671958 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/J/in-2030-will-wikipedias-article-on", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:5... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 540 | Jenny | 1688482904521 | 1.1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "deb21b51607a", "prob": 0.3592825520052377, "text": "Resolved in 2030 with no controversy (lol)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 86.09360496057367, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 153.53285193265887, "textFts": "'2030':3 'controversi':6 'lol':7 'resolv':1", "contractId": "Ejd0aR4WQ... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662185672581}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cr... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions", "ancient-markets"] | 0.10635119266042772 | 1688482904297 | 1662186948180 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Y4xgerE68sWTNpAc2fyq | who-will-win-the-mens-race-at-utmb-992ffc66c59b | 607.8503658688288 | Who will win the men's race at UTMB 2023? | 1693259940000 | sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.785061316165681 | True | play | 0e1caa1c583a | public | 1662193351118 | howtodowtle | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the winner's name is not explicitly named among the choices, I will resolve to N/A. (I.e., an answer like \"a runner not listed here\" will not win.)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2022 market: ", "typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1695824783618 | 940.0000000000003 | howtodowtle | 1693592439155 | 0.1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4d6cc64a4276", "prob": 0.13775742686973416, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.120221813654061, "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 19.529895022548153, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Y4xgerE68sWTNpAc2fyq", "createdTime": 1662193351941, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 6 | 4 | [{"name": "Trail Running", "slug": "trail-running", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "OjXxYAveKEmGNae3M03r", "createdTime": 1670836875559}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662193351784}, {"name"... | ["sports-default", "trail-running", "running"] | 0.1006304760767641 | 1693249263378 | 1693592438916 | {"0e1caa1c583a": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HkHUaGmUGLyvXBRmfJd6 | which-team-will-win-dfbpokal-german | 8204.332957387902 | Which team will win DFB-Pokal (German footbal cup) 2022/23? | 1685823364268 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.621926035684766 | True | play | 5cd14d1baaa2 | public | 1662193544615 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_DFB-Pokal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_DFB-Pokal", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:deco... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1685823364268 | 1039.9999999999995 | Chocobo | 1685822917747 | 0 | 11 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "559d91db9abf", "prob": 0.0001865516368771309, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0001555763210182092, "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.8338029116480632, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HkHUaGmUGLyvXBRmfJd6", "createdTime": 1662193545449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 3 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662193545299}] | ["sports-default"] | 1685822224057 | 1685822914681 | {"5cd14d1baaa2": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8089125857886096 | PUKktGJwptbpDmYt1gm1 | {"NO": 847.2348281876706, "YES": 547.4322809854833} | 0 | will-superlinear-host-more-than-300 | 5351.292702077417 | Will Superlinear host more than $300k worth of x-risk prizes by November? | 1667404009557 | RsTxmWbOpPdMPv1CSDMRE31WwuA2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0159284225762977 | True | play | NO | public | 1662195427856 | Drew Spartz | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Superlinear is an x-risk prize platform created by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nonlinear", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nonlinear.org/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hove... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667404009557 | 620 | DrewSpartz | 1667404079771 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgcIrMcvwpkf3AhMUbWz17KCznFJG7CWFehW0NcU6M=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "RsTxmWbOpPdMPv1CSDMRE31WwuA2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1662195428418}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.5 | 1667403952508 | 1667404077137 | 0.8675765499016894 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.38014734003376843 | KfI7Y5RBunSW0KtrxmJW | {"NO": 113.0279124803573, "YES": 244.94679861898263} | 0 | is-meteor-guy-gandalf | 353.4732027665418 | Is Meteor guy Gandalf (reveal in S1)? | 1665723494261 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.219525086807343 | True | play | NO | public | 1662197394240 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if, by the end of the first season of Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power, it is confirmed that the \"Stranger\" who falls to earth in a meteor in the first episode is actually Gandalf. Confirmation has to involve him actually going ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665945157074 | 160 | BoltonBailey | 1665727169763 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1662197394992}] | ["entertainment"] | 0.5 | 1665710534463 | 1665727163513 | 0.22057320651785123 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | VRUvQfkON3FHGfFKVIOL | {"NO": 64.51612903225806, "YES": 155} | 0 | will-i-ever-find-a-podcast-similar | 55 | Will I ever find a podcast similar to The Ethicists that I like? | 1662868740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8678635748190278 | True | play | NO | public | 1662199992790 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662890825738 | 100 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1662821327618 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V", "createdTime": 1662199993242}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1662200003071}] | ["recommendations", "olivia"] | 0.5 | 1662821327449 | 0.2939015429831007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 2ZOvgf2f5m6e1QlMq1Z1 | {"NO": 51.28205128205126, "YES": 195} | 0 | will-this-market-get-10000-mana-inv | 95 | Will this market get >=10,000 mana invested in it in an hour? | 1662210420000 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.991561936255603 | True | play | NO | public | 1662206834347 | Ibozz91 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by M$x bet above graph", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662219482308 | 100 | Ibozz91 | 1662210405774 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1662206834770}] | ["predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1662210405462 | 0.20822488287350344 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18128932694976851 | jiAAUNjhqq4MWSuCWNcS | {"NO": 148.99670067822785, "YES": 2498.3535231671553} | 0 | will-the-first-season-of-rings-of-p | 3778.4176198789655 | Will the first season of Rings of Power have a higher Rotten Tomatoes rating than the first season of House of the Dragon? | 1669265940000 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8805106945353147 | True | play | NO | public | 1662226402959 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who am I kidding. I’m going to watch both. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Rings of Power turns up a higher Rotten Tomatoes critic score one month after both first seasons hav... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669300481662 | 305 | Charlie | 1669265501165 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 47 | 0 | 1 | 44 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1662226403621}, {"name": "House of the Dragon", "slug": "house-of-the-dragon", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa", "cre... | ["entertainment", "house-of-the-dragon"] | 0.5 | 1669265501025 | 1668838977705 | 0.013033674749599732 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3279490192387528 | jrocUvxEbifbYEFQhT0C | {"NO": 100.17903339254428, "YES": 466.7734730556964} | 0 | will-daniel-ricciardo-drive-in-form | 500.8175654464478 | Will Daniel Ricciardo drive in Formula 1 in 2023? | 1669097178647 | UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.399696817545988 | True | play | NO | public | 1662226793462 | Adrian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves when an announcement is made", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669097178647 | 180 | ahalekelly | 1668219645684 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c | 14 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662226794277}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 1668219645580 | 0.09480217258096017 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.015873015873015865 | m226CHidVAKo3uTJjznD | {"NO": 100.00000000000004, "YES": 100.00000000000003} | 0.015873015873015865 | how-many-miles-of-tunnels-will-exis | 1.9999999999999574 | How many miles of tunnels will exist in 2035? | 1662236765607 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.124766183564367 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662233104750 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "United States, length of all lanes. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of 2018, 351 miles of road tunnel lanes ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "t... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662236765607 | 100 | Gigacasting | 1662238121373 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662233105485}] | ["technology-default"] | 0.015873015873015872 | 1662234237561 | 1662238116501 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TJQduqQmKd7CgUDwxPaQ | what-will-be-the-racial-makeup-of-t | 0 | What will be the racial makeup of the Harvard Class of 2032? | 1662236460721 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.018925873531059 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662234617861 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also known as: will Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard actually have any effect?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "—", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662236460721 | 300 | Gigacasting | 1662234621877 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "6a0dd97f370f", "prob": 0.19999999999999998, "text": "White/Caucasian", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.999999999999998, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 48, "textFts": "'white/caucasian':1", "contractId": "TJQduqQmKd7CgUDwxPaQ", "createdTime": 1662234617861, "probChanges": {"day"... | 1 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662234618417}] | ["us-politics"] | 1662234617861 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4428558972500584 | 1wqTg5zGszn4BDuty4TU | {"NO": 578.4929564295043, "YES": 195.03665944875408} | 1 | was-there-a-nuclear-close-call-some | 460.3077745227197 | Was there a nuclear close call some time between 2000 and 2020? | 1715414563009 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0.04312881506835644 | 10.586609649448985 | True | play | YES | public | 1662235319521 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7906770855969723, "platformFee": 2.7906770855969723, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1715414563009 | 360 | IsaacKing | 1715414563009 | 1.1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1699039734282}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.11025779531666494 | 0.5 | 1715085211211 | 1715085238706 | 0.7 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000006 | hQHXBl1Y4QkeWcijP7Ok | {"NO": 390.4265271258104, "YES": 25.613013730436442} | 1 | will-i-do-at-least-one-pomodoro-of | 524.2449652985841 | Will I do at least one pomodoro of work both today and tomorrow? | 1662320457020 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.636281930374115 | True | play | YES | public | 1662239093488 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 3, 6:17pm: Did one today. Halfway there.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662320457020 | 100 | Charlie | 1662273218660 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1662239094096}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1662273216907 | 0.9384361071120247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | uYCUeUZ6gYt3s4W9smP9 | {"NO": 219, "YES": 45.662100456621005} | 0 | will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-248f09d71056 | 119 | Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings 6 of 7 times AND achieve my Emile bedtime goal this coming week? | 1662735187442 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.072280579530191 | True | play | NO | public | 1662239823372 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In bed by 12:15am 4 times. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Move goal: 540cal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exercise goal: 40min", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662735187442 | 100 | Charlie | 1662239918100 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1662239823818}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm",... | ["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"] | 0.5 | 1662239917024 | 0.8274701954762684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000021 | TgzK7sLn7mUtmIzdLVhc | {"NO": 2198.1737185591305, "YES": 72.78769582636893} | 1 | will-the-third-episode-of-house-of | 2467.462645077233 | Will the third episode of House of the Dragon have a higher score on IMDB than the previous? | 1662396310990 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.8180092120107607 | True | play | YES | public | 1662239829774 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "House of the Dragon is HBO's new show based on the Game of Thrones series.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Episode 1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662396310990 | 400 | SG | 1662394255454 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1662239830152}, {"name": "House of the Dragon", "slug": "house-of-the-dragon", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "tgXkqBzB3NEhtpQxJdNa", "cre... | ["entertainment", "house-of-the-dragon"] | 0.5 | 1662394254147 | 0.9679485105447888 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5415263445813886 | Q14sMSYypidecC86Ajx9 | {"NO": 13.42784549347789, "YES": 5057.215493628513} | 0 | will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-8abe031a54fa | 8563.442175577056 | Will Artemis I Launch by the end of Oct 4? | 1664942340000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4689639218147716 | True | play | NO | public | 1662248219528 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Artermis 1 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Jonathanm/will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664942622517 | 340 | Jenny | 1664934790622 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 45 | [{"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1662250450545}, {"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1662248400929}, {"nam... | ["space", "science-default", "artemis-program", "artemis-1", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1664934785935 | 1664227709962 | 0.0030667779685951994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21627252601599814 | iVOsT4OHz9FtV7ETzF25 | {"NO": 52.17704574568995, "YES": 3422.4647909914615} | 0 | will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-75233245efeb | 9350.413790890876 | Will Artemis I Launch by the end of October? | 1667275140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.6932255048126423 | True | play | NO | public | 1662248291703 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Artermis 1 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Jonathanm/will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667275228501 | 280 | Jenny | 1667274330028 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 53 | [{"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1662250450545}, {"name": "Artemis 1", "slug": "artemis-1", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "DPCQseWt9F0Lbobl1jOQ", "createdTime": 1662248389200}, {"nam... | ["space", "science-default", "artemis-program", "artemis-1", "free-money"] | 0.5 | 1667274329930 | 1666818619212 | 0.021986148463872483 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | 0VXODaseqrusMUf2abrj | {"NO": 83.36157713463008, "YES": 119.95934270593114} | 0 | does-robin-have-gallstones | 272.4162214454138 | Does Robin have gallstones? | 1665213349585 | 5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.0884130339846716 | True | play | NO | public | 1662251681226 | Ruth Grace Wong | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once every couple months Robin will have some really bad stomach pain. We are not sure but it seems to be related to eating really oily food ( though he doesn't get it every time he eats oily food). It's definitely made worse when he eats carbs aft... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665213349585 | 100 | RuthGraceWong | 1664866527326 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Life intervention", "slug": "life-intervention", "userId": "5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2", "groupId": "hlgJn9tiQAnKxx07j5bc", "createdTime": 1662251681713}] | ["life-intervention"] | 0.5 | 1664866527215 | 0.40999999999999986 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6242880134107157 | vHlLPWP2crTTDqtu7Zow | {"NO": 208.16139867414518, "YES": 97.42178513175449} | 0.7802378264752913 | will-steven-n-austad-win-his-bet-ag | 396.6046706643652 | Will Steven N Austad win his bet against Jay Olshansky on whether there will be a 150 year old human by 2150? | 5714524740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662253747198 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2016.20818", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2016.20818", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | StochasticParrot | 1713236999816 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1662253747767}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1681610067858}] | ["science-default", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1713236996500 | 1711232341191 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45264971341370647 | bqfkXniXjLBQtblXiQuL | {"NO": 535.5371422513836, "YES": 587.2177569128562} | 0.42994001878445465 | will-china-set-up-an-economic-block-f88343813e76 | 519.77071356658 | Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030? | 1956556740000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662253832030 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/#comment-98618", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-half-of-taiwan-by-20... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 0.049940018784454754} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 8.318464959175653, "platformFee": 0.4736415611230212, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 560 | StochasticParrot | 1717705583950 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0.0902767348037389 | 0.5 | 1717705580775 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | S3UvN5Tkgd3xrlDbZuXD | {"NO": 275.8232422903269, "YES": 36.25510278598702} | 1 | will-the-buffalo-bills-beat-the-los | 214.8976408888037 | Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams in the 2022 NFL regular season opener? | 1662694200000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2666148901451497 | True | play | YES | public | 1662259681807 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662720200401 | 100 | dglid | 1662691521734 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1662259682237}] | ["nfl"] | 0.5 | 1662691520520 | 0.8838269192400345 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 4qnvXsRVY19NC7hE0Itr | {"NO": 33.36658953243234, "YES": 299.70099252367356} | 0 | was-the-bomb-threat-at-boston-child | 362.29900747632644 | Was the bomb threat at Boston Children's Hospital a false flag threat? | 1672560000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3469560514846415 | True | play | NO | public | 1662261675620 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/SethDillon/status/1565114913009422336", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/SethDillon/status/1565114913009422336", "class": "no-underline !tex... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672957127573 | 100 | IsaacKing | 1672728321450 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 | 1666983139952 | 1672728319083 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1964537229934806 | b4DLktGecuuaTJAoE7cQ | {"NO": 88.41076196971052, "YES": 1912.6365155241788} | 0 | will-the-us-designate-russia-a-stat | 4615.419418507258 | Will the US designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.914867837294495 | True | play | NO | public | 1662264637152 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US designates Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, as listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672549692637 | 240 | jack | 1672548591304 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1662264637739}, {"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1670541307472}, {"name": "U... | ["politics-default", "terrorism", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672548591161 | 1669736598809 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GSaWMWCHCzf73Ldvz0KL | first-lotrtrop-ship-to-sail | 45 | First LOTR:TROP ship to sail | 1664511518185 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.910504809655133 | True | play | ea6c72ab4e2c | public | 1662265971455 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to the names of the first two characters in Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power who:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664511518185 | 320 | BoltonBailey | 1663632459597 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0b589bd7cc96", "prob": 0.4756242568370987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 63.41656757827983, "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 69.9167657550535, "textFts": "", "contractId": "GSaWMWCHCzf73Ldvz0KL", "createdTime": 1662265972038, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "m... | 2 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1662265971910}] | ["entertainment"] | 1663632459395 | {"ea6c72ab4e2c": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19402376568822252 | A9nSHqOqxii3X0BjveEA | {"NO": 948.1146908857171, "YES": 1105.7242363103587} | 0.17109963109277374 | puerto-rico-statehood-by-2028 | 286.56217158379513 | Puerto Rico Statehood by 2028? | 1830412740000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.730438581156125 | False | basic | public | 1662267747245 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Puerto Rico is added to the union by 2028.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -2.7755575615628914e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.011840601530563452, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1717629692102 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662267747858}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1717629688947 | 1662274491957 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3172946982951879 | cFOSCZGvCOFYvtOYNrKP | {"NO": 352.0740362389332, "YES": 169.96860725988992} | 0.4903333333333333 | how-many-twitter-followers-will-fer | 678.6586431821186 | How many Twitter followers will @mealreplacer have by the end of the year? | 1672531140000 | hXJuGWcNx2hbpD2YrLRLkcilgqg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.4419451248084907 | True | play | MKT | public | 1662274856482 | Julian | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves on December 31st, 2022, at 11:59pm UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 27, 11:41pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "How many Twitter followers will @FerrisHueller have by the end of the yea... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672533197059 | 300 | JulianH | 1672529624285 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrSIBrTWD03vmlTNT8vNy8Y3hipxGgAW0kg9QnPZQ=s96-c | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 15 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "hXJuGWcNx2hbpD2YrLRLkcilgqg1", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1662274857216}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.16666666666666663 | 1672529624165 | 1662279448572 | 0.4903333333333333 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | MpfPqN1BNdwj8drsyi8Y | {"NO": 73.37993857053428, "YES": 136.2770287738494} | 0.35 | will-sls-launch-with-a-crew-aboard | 121.23708142767714 | Will SLS launch with a crew aboard by 2025? | 1662965940000 | 4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6190392084062235 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662277061395 | James Babcock | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Artemis 2 is planned to be the first crewed mission of SLS, and to launch in 2024. However, whether this actually happens will depend on the results of Artemis 1, on NASA administrators' confidence in the launch vehicle, and on the contractors stay... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663012982252 | 100 | JamesBabcock | 1663012983261 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgTH5k_W1_a-3n0Q0TpwHPtHcXItwv4WDjHESDoqQ=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "4OWmSHyuayfkoRm1f1wiS5hFmvo1", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1662277062040}] | ["space"] | 0.5 | 1662918607883 | 1663012975255 | 0.35 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
juVDE3VdITxUUpl9jWAI | which-team-will-win-the-202223-uefa | 102798.108513483 | Which team will win the 2022–23 UEFA Champions League? | 1686430833040 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615675940396258 | True | basic | 85a7b24801f9 | public | 1662281123457 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%9323_UEFA_Champions_League", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%9323_UEFA_Champions_League", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 b... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1686430833040 | 2919.9999999999995 | Chocobo | 1686430807121 | 0 | 44 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cfae01ec326d", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 5.739417412827881e-05, "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.5738843471086598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "juVDE3VdITxUUpl9jWAI", "createdTime": 1662281124208, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 22 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662281124053}, {"name": "UEFA", "slug": "uefa", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "KSvOrWRB2hyHWfU4GnM9", "createdTime": 1675288816359}, {"name": "UEFA Champions ... | ["sports-default", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league", "ucl-finals-manchester-city-vs-inter"] | 0.1510312842267535 | 1686430806885 | 1686430693533 | {"85a7b24801f9": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | CT9MzM4Cb0sD5aAqO0Oy | {"NO": 104.64480874316939, "YES": 95.56135770234985} | 0 | will-my-new-manager-be-an-external | 133 | Will my new manager be an external hire? | 1662655080000 | LZP7JtCPMDhJ4JVwP1AwmHuL71e2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.773619288904854 | True | play | NO | public | 1662297045203 | Anon | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I work as a team leader in a fintech company with 20k+ employees. My team is a mixture of finance SMEs and data analysts working on a significant amount of legacy issues. My manager has moved to another team and the company is sourcing a replacemen... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662655108007 | 100 | anon471957205719 | 1662382268582 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmU2lULY2NbuYthPZAOjGlLKcLZsB-nKYRLTlqy-w=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "LZP7JtCPMDhJ4JVwP1AwmHuL71e2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1662297045736}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1662382267334 | 1662299458192 | 0.5226852429225535 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | ZtK14fzuXnF5DlCyqmya | {"NO": 111.11111111111111, "YES": 90.00000000000001} | 0.5524861878453039 | will-frc-implement-8-or-more-bug-fi | 35 | Will @frc implement 8 or more bug fixes/features to manifold market that I submitted? | 1662298306091 | 6SYMPxsgHvewyMBCW23NsWZY4W53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.778136576005231 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662297671000 | H | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if 10 or more of the following bug fixes/features are implemented, will add more as they come along:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "list... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662298306091 | 100 | Hendrik | 1662298116097 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucolUuLz-Qn_bmiLjJV2XdmGkKulcOrCckEcMMftkXg=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1662297912699 | 1662298115374 | 0.6097560975609757 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
S9P6jEs7lGgDYEoiTtpQ | who-will-be-the-first-officially-re | 535.030150925212 | Who will be the first officially recognized USD trillionaire? | 1893477660000 | ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662299481132 | Nick Allen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves according to this source, or the first non-ad result on a Google search for \"World's richest person\", once an individual's publicly known net worth exceeds $1T USD.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NickAllen | 1704259025213 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6bef128a7f09", "prob": 0.03391943206121825, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 6.288259446266275, "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 179.099851855749, "textFts": "", "contractId": "S9P6jEs7lGgDYEoiTtpQ", "createdTime": 1662299481819, "probChanges": {"day": -0.966080567938... | 8 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662299481671}] | ["world-default"] | 1704259025071 | 1662696107028 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | stBYicsHXTfJ2dxQy0xY | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | will-mattia-binotto-be-team-princip | 0 | Will Mattia Binotto be team principal of Scuderia Ferrari at the end of February 2023? | 1663073144377 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662299510525 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Mattia Binotto, current team principal of Scuderia Ferrari, is still team principal of the Scuderia by Feb 28th 2023, this market will solve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663073144377 | 100 | MP | 1662299510525 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 0 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662299511040}] | ["sports-default"] | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1475160536720493 | 0NWpJfm2pyG3cfC2qLGb | {"NO": 347.38209524816557, "YES": 11705.151756665078} | 0 | will-russian-forces-meet-putins-new | 12028.960230529785 | Will Russian Forces Meet Putin's New Deadline to Reach the Administrative Borders of the Donetsk Region by Sept. 15? | 1663210005320 | JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7249633227398107 | True | play | NO | public | 1662300233256 | Stormtrooper TK-293 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FH0680U23vB.png?alt=media&token=56da52ab-a121-47c1-acf7-d9d142f2e204", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663210005320 | 943.8698284632152 | stormtk293 | 1663200253674 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662317513716}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662314716193}, {"name": "World", "sl... | ["ukraine", "politics-default", "russia", "world-default", "wars", "global-macro", "vlad-the-impaler", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1663200253501 | 1663183418501 | False | 0.005109269867886095 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.40391529744327515 | 2ezd81GWOENMA0hvkwiu | {"NO": 32.21947820380683, "YES": 673.0429981542669} | 0 | will-manifold-allow-date-as-a-uniqu | 1071.7686367382503 | Will Manifold allow 'date' as a unique answer type in 2022? | 1672549460777 | ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.7279074585584198 | True | play | NO | public | 1662300389882 | Nick Allen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"yes\" if Manifold Markets allows \"date\" or equivalent as an explicit answer type by the closeout date, to allow user-friendly answers to \"when will...\" questions.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672549460777 | 120 | NickAllen | 1672481184343 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1 | 31 | 0 | 30 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662300390407}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1672481184205 | 1662476643963 | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6891814214856 | fQaK7k5N4WtRg2o1lTvt | {"NO": 940.4317344477563, "YES": 64.49163506447834} | 1 | will-there-be-over-55-new-teams-in | 971.0795553185764 | Will there be over 5.5 new teams in the NFL playoffs this year? | 1673240340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.159072111086817 | True | play | YES | public | 1662303355471 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At minute 24:15 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/dlf-podcast/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673755112167 | 200 | dglid | 1673238667750 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | [{"name": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "slug": "dlf-dynasty-podcast", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "j6ONX1AWT1zMVBi9wdYZ", "createdTime": 1662303356004}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1662303419688}] | ["dlf-dynasty-podcast", "nfl"] | 0.5 | 1673238667586 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7137346123074231 | sjJqUcZipsDdt6lwwKyv | {"NO": 1078.6441672655621, "YES": 62.37390057798397} | 1 | will-aj-brown-be-a-top9-fantasy-wid | 1104.2004917496565 | Will A.J. Brown be a top-9 fantasy wide receiver in 2022? | 1673240340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.46641482267531 | True | play | YES | public | 1662303895875 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At minute 25:45 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/dlf-podcast/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673754897835 | 200 | dglid | 1673240015209 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "slug": "dlf-dynasty-podcast", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "j6ONX1AWT1zMVBi9wdYZ", "createdTime": 1662303896450}, {"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "cre... | ["dlf-dynasty-podcast", "fantasy-football-nfl"] | 0.5 | 1673240013977 | 0.98 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.36547737268029146 | RbW6OndfGhx300hdnXQJ | {"NO": 70.430123170925, "YES": 903.4003330297667} | 0 | will-jalen-hurts-score-400-or-more | 942.0252475850823 | Will Jalen Hurts score 400 or more fantasy points in 2022? | 1673240340000 | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.583398966515958 | True | play | NO | public | 1662304168182 | David Glidden | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At minute 28:00 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/dlf-podcast/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673755216603 | 200 | dglid | 1673240037131 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | [{"name": "DLF Dynasty Podcast", "slug": "dlf-dynasty-podcast", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "j6ONX1AWT1zMVBi9wdYZ", "createdTime": 1662304168686}, {"name": "Fantasy Football (NFL)", "slug": "fantasy-football-nfl", "userId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "groupId": "fS4PTcbzeUah8qwPcGz8", "cre... | ["dlf-dynasty-podcast", "fantasy-football-nfl"] | 0.5 | 1673240036854 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000032 | EvAjdcDtE7L9UVsbsD9W | {"NO": 692.179845501856, "YES": 14.447112358132438} | 1 | will-a-hurricane-hit-the-us-gulf-co-ec3136389610 | 2160.025172780467 | Will a hurricane hit the US Gulf Coast by September 30, 2022? | 1664405584260 | absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.409121774393603 | True | play | YES | public | 1662311698375 | Joe Brenton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if a storm makes landfall as a hurricane on the US Gulf Coast by September 30, 2022 end of day (UTC-5). This includes landfall from the US border near Brownsville TX to south Florida, approaching from the Gulf of Mexi... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664405584260 | 100 | JoeBrenton | 1664398448067 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1662311698879}] | ["weather"] | 0.5 | 1664398447405 | 1663998792326 | 0.9795548242287766 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28460236960850693 | Hjq3WjkZ3gBFFKjP3FyY | {"NO": 256.8251336216647, "YES": 3307.7877092960352} | 0 | will-libsoftiktok-be-banned-from-tw | 5287.606619293471 | Will LibsofTikTok be banned from Twitter in 2022? | 1672556340000 | as8ARBFOqKXFrJxT9ECLzTnWiuM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.197105556960659 | True | play | NO | public | 1662316183755 | Josiah Neeley | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A temporary suspension alone is not sufficient for it to resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672584987861 | 560 | JosiahNeeley | 1672529524927 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpqFxmv7BXjltGYppy6zxdtO8mfG-IZL4Ieu7ur=s96-c | 0 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1662317985642}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1662318006903}] | ["twitter", "politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672529524806 | 0.03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BxEi0OFvfPQJTa0lOqhF | what-will-be-the-sources-of-nonfoss | 846 | What will be the sources of non-fossil-fuel energy production in the United States in 2040? | 2209017600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1662316802206 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the relative proportions of energy production as reported by Our World In Data, or a replacement source if necessary. (Usable energy; not counting waste heat.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1715415027206 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "ef762e1239ba", "prob": 0.10384286504703018, "text": "Nuclear (fission)", "index": 0, "poolNo": 19.647956070028513, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 169.56057608218052, "textFts": "'fission':2 'nuclear':1", "contractId": "BxEi0OFvfPQJTa0lOqhF", "createdTime": 1662316802206,... | 7 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662316802803}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1682362841170}] | ["us-politics", "ancient-markets"] | 0.10348824235786722 | 1715042802153 | 1715042734367 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.22160685538594557 | HUjJ7wI6eQGyjBnTcaOc | {"NO": 965.1097970571826, "YES": 1018.3725529508325} | 0.21247913754140105 | how-much-of-the-united-states-energ | 472.3567966904959 | How much of the United State's energy will be produced by fossil fuels in 2040? | 2209017600000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.637731230709782 | False | basic | public | 1662317081422 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the total percentage contribution of coal, oil, and natural gas to United States energy usage at the beginning of 2040. Source will be Our World In Data, or a replacement source if necessary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "p... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.23269914638050504, "platformFee": 0.23269914638050504, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1715415091690 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662317082018}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1715415088361 | 1662359228386 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999944 | JuRD7pHBc8QaihYOhNsI | {"NO": 603.852065321806, "YES": 16.5603474332257} | 1 | will-i-do-at-least-one-pomodoro-of-3ec2e179a9d1 | 521 | Will I do at least one pomodoro of work on either Monday or Tuesday? | 1662502101578 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.209273940442518 | True | play | YES | public | 1662320734003 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just one pomodoro completed on Monday or Tuesday. Seems easy enough.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 6, 5:43pm: starting it now!", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662502101578 | 100 | Charlie | 1662440872766 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1662320734411}] | ["personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1662440872608 | 0.9733075175596712 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000013 | nSpZ8KYfLOd4CbizC4A8 | {"NO": 117.14285714285492, "YES": 85.36585365853642} | 1 | will-we-escape-from-the-zombie-outb | 1195 | Will we escape from the Zombie Outbreak room in time? | 1662323912246 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7850931047579017 | True | play | YES | public | 1662321504987 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662323912246 | 100 | Austin | 1662323944359 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1662323669304 | 1662323936406 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | scvpatc0Vjcr33LpJfZl | {"NO": 280.7017543859651, "YES": 35.625} | 1 | will-we-escape-from-atlantis-rising | 560 | Will we escape from Atlantis Rising in time? | 1662326873765 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2831392480250834 | True | play | YES | public | 1662323976587 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662326873765 | 100 | Austin | 1662326208254 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 1662326206927 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.44090426148712103 | DINr896Y6HgD252gKa0n | {"NO": 1130.1048135292285, "YES": 1154.4043335616748} | 0.4356668145853422 | will-china-really-surpass-us-gdp-by | 18825.835748574154 | Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s? | 2208988740000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 8.68943670114124 | False | basic | public | 1662324567083 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some beginning to doubt the 2030s projection ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-chinas-economy-surpass-the-u-s-s-some-now-doubt-it-11662123945", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.... | BINARY | {"day": 0.004760267551336128, "week": -0.013949343916651813, "month": 0.04070166433073186} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 34.441644207388414, "platformFee": 23.910971882347543, "liquidityFee": 0} | 10 | 1170 | GeorgeVii | 1720225629374 | 0.1 | 2 | 90 | 1 | 34 | [{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1662335599052}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1677122595239}] | ["china", "global-macro"] | 0.11807338083462622 | 0.5 | 1720225625425 | 1714120985108 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.51002368617773 | 5E2gXZfz4RDMVgLPma4h | {"NO": 1382.0492385962218, "YES": 729.5356060501927} | 0.6635187250366122 | will-china-ever-surpass-us-gdp | 14271.163926820273 | Will China ever surpass US gdp? | 4197052740000 | IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2 | cpmm-1 | 6.541157654149127e-16 | 6.833713664995942 | False | basic | public | 1662324675519 | GeorgeVii | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 5, 9:58am: Resolves NO if China is passed as the second largest economy (or if either China &/ the US cease to exist)", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0.041847542688300376, "month": 0.04579596320393842} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 48.85646131465833, "platformFee": 11.055256466856603, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GeorgeVii | 1720091292277 | 0.3 | 1 | 64 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662336524855}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182237818}] | ["global-macro", "china"] | 0.11423816749227762 | 0.5 | 1720091289084 | 1715986237547 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4hCgtCLiJKGzvjL216Nb | who-is-the-stranger-from-lord-of-th | 1451.8385887819163 | Who is the Stranger from Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power? | 1735689540000 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1662326059482 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2024-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.03460304851381069, "platformFee": 0.03460304851381069, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Tetraspace | 1715656742457 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "822898759732", "prob": 0.004517370072638173, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.45972968692397387, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 101.3095917394007, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4hCgtCLiJKGzvjL216Nb", "createdTime": 1662326059940, "probChanges": {"day": -1.12757025... | 12 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1665602843243}] | ["culture-default"] | 0.1087384312025784 | 1715656738835 | 1665792147240 | True | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4266763458065692 | as40zQvfBz9y12b3Ps4B | {"NO": 53.928006276177825, "YES": 382.2260639215637} | 0.09502331234146211 | when-will-the-next-mission-to-a-min | 307.1934643892075 | When will the next mission to a minor body between Mars and the Kuiper Belt be launched? | 4133955599000 | k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662326259738 | Olivia's Market Manager Bot | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fractional year at which a mission to an object that frequents this region. This includes flyby missions, orbiters, landers, or miners. This does not include any bodies which are in orbit of a major planet. This does include the Tro... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | MarketManagerBot | 1702080510415 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1662326399307}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1662326406231}, {"name": "Mars", "slug": "mars"... | ["space", "olivia", "mars"] | 0.5887355477484346 | 1702080463515 | 1702080508593 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5593691680672871 | YlYHF2SjXjl7VaRAwlII | {"NO": 70.91588530930449, "YES": 27719.433403829975} | 0 | will-gpt4-be-announced-before-march | 91544.45481078919 | Will GPT-4 be announced and released before March 1st 2023? | 1677700800000 | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1361359854710642 | True | basic | NO | public | 1662328477967 | Matthew Barnett | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if OpenAI announces the release of GPT-4 before March 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678135534520 | 2080 | MatthewBarnett | 1678135558304 | 0 | 3 | 304 | 0 | 2 | 232 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1662328701073}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1662328691364}, {"nam... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "gpt4-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1677696468476 | 1678135550141 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | n3ehzx2RHxcriO2FKHi3 | {"NO": 1862.9530924451574, "YES": 193.2415805099497} | 1 | will-the-us-block-the-export-of-any | 1563 | Will the US block the export of any additional semiconductor technology to China before the end of 2022? | 1662744252138 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9386855277318029 | True | play | YES | public | 1662330937737 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last week the White House ordered Nvidia to suspend exports of certain GPUs to China. This market resolves YES if the US government orders any other companies to suspend exports of semiconductor technology to China before the end of 2022. Resolves ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662744252138 | 600 | BTE | 1662767035018 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 16 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662330938163}] | ["global-macro"] | 0.5 | 1662743978794 | 1662767029924 | 0.5853977607407238 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | 95Ujazr2kOSNrZVUgjHm | {"NO": 83.33333333333333, "YES": 120} | 0 | will-the-shortterm-rental-linked-in-d4f27d3773b8 | 20 | Will the short-term rental linked in the description reach an occupancy rate of at least 50% for September 2022? | 1663824317064 | OPBtogfMc4XqtIltNzSGck6y3Cx1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.789186327869171 | True | play | NO | public | 1662340591396 | Jonathan Mann | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://catskillslakeretreat.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://catskillslakeretreat.com/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline ho... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663824317064 | 100 | JonathanMann | 1704296707784 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGqet__ZxQQEFkGGhvNQAdMw9j0AMIeJOQr6uE=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 1663817453006 | 1704296707120 | 0.4098360655737705 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | GmSUQyHoK7nWpSbUKb7Q | {"NO": 65.46536707079774, "YES": 152.75252316519476} | 0.3000000000000001 | will-the-first-human-level-agi-be-n | 347.8994214026153 | Will the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic? | 2487905940000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662355065300 | DAL59 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 100 | DAL59 | 1713237020773 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | 55 | 6 | [] | [] | 0.5 | 1713237016811 | 1679359914977 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1713719956944754 | LmiDrYgzSC81x9WNwdvI | {"NO": 988.5189756112528, "YES": 901.4319388184589} | 0.18486748524634722 | will-it-be-found-out-by-2052-that-a | 300.59539529661777 | Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception? | 1800680340000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.778871470837322 | False | basic | public | 1662355423040 | DAL59 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": 0.03925396139510973} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 2.7642547797693844, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | DAL59 | 1718463917839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 47 | 13 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1662355423487}] | ["science-default"] | 0.5 | 1718463914787 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3386419364803724 | 81oquBSdipCg6IQQVvgP | {"NO": 60.5566875663349, "YES": 5899.658681750471} | 0 | will-the-perimage-cost-of-dalle-2-g | 10071.285263984573 | Will the per-image cost of DALL-E 2 go down by March 2023? | 1677743940000 | PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9047600766143526 | True | play | NO | public | 1662358688021 | horse | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can currently (as of September 4th, 2022) generate four images from one prompt, costing 1 credit. 115 credits can be bought for $15 USD, giving a per-image cost of about $0.0326. This resolves \"yes\" if the per-image cost as calculated decreas... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677785670841 | 500 | horse | 1677743785652 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 38 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1662358688481}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1677743784455 | 1677717146060 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | pJVpVYsM7l3hbm7atw7s | {"NO": 105.147749057397, "YES": 95.10427079652746} | 0.5250770960217925 | in-what-year-will-china-be-the-worl | 24.852250942603014 | In what year will China be the world’s largest economy (nominal GDP)? | 1662372228466 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.77384842471352 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1662362839129 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MIN=2025 or earlier ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MAX=Not by 2035", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/use... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662372228466 | 100 | Gigacasting | 1662371639664 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1662362839610}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238175}] | ["economics-default", "china"] | 0.5 | 1662371639102 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5980521856350077 | 6aopUId1MwbafDSEK0e5 | {"NO": 191.3507920515037, "YES": 133.98023655522803} | 0.6799999999999995 | will-north-macedonia-be-a-member-of | 215.29370438913256 | Will North Macedonia be a Member of the European Union on 1st of January 2030? | 1893452340000 | PZnIInE520cQKvTty0lOx1ND7uy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662374844253 | MatejMecka | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "North Macedonia is currently in the negotiating process with the European Union. The current Prime Minister, Dimitar Kovachevski, said that North Macedonia will become a EU member at the start 2030. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"ty... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | MatejMecka | 1709556233734 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6KtYbPT8B-hy1GJXR8ZpUDXtg4s9vge24JSPUCg=s96-c | 8 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "PZnIInE520cQKvTty0lOx1ND7uy1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1662374844910}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1709556233734 | 1662381498493 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8280020791548014 | uIlbLlMMIii0o6r5N1h4 | {"NO": 3324.866184196311, "YES": 105.35859919823966} | 1 | will-dwarf-fortress-be-released-on-9f49928f4f68 | 4463.685314578013 | Will Dwarf Fortress be released on steam before Christmas 2022? | 1670377157563 | kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9159979485360075 | True | play | YES | public | 1662376663585 | Dan Sparkman | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670377157563 | 240 | DanSparkman | 1670354673363 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 15 | 0.5 | 1670354673256 | 1670354168007 | 0.9934605950397041 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2537095996846144 | 5voZtjSZonKbh2lSApMp | {"NO": 24.656632534646235, "YES": 17527.390640535807} | 0 | will-truth-social-be-shut-down-by-t | 18158.208078978947 | Will Truth Social be shut down by the end of September 2022? | 1664596740000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.035197312717101 | True | play | NO | public | 1662388927963 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Truth Social be ordered to close operations at any time before the end of September 2022?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664597726190 | 160 | Predictor | 1664594723008 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 31 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662388928918}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1664594722818 | 1662470560202 | 0.0004780110040056067 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17118157072969906 | uqLRcUNFJoxLRz90iQFd | {"NO": 54.34796122771695, "YES": 10866.538461538461} | 0 | will-the-us-call-a-federal-constitu | 10850 | Will the US call a federal constitutional convention by end of 2023? | 1704096345047 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 1.8469151023479886e-15 | 4.515625419519454 | True | play | NO | public | 1662390765151 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US Congress calls a constitutional convention as called for by 2/3 of state legislatures, as per ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Article 5 of the Constitution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:/... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704096345047 | 180 | jack | 1704096397612 | 0.1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662390765667}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703139563061}] | ["us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.10516200526518428 | 0.5 | 1704096312697 | 1704096396743 | 0 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4769321577892585 | WXmIQLgiGfHJNbS9SBn7 | {"NO": 16.973100936689775, "YES": 1401.5319496558686} | 0 | will-i-be-a-tokyo-marathon-2023-gen | 1437.6068300637469 | Will I be a 'Tokyo Marathon 2023' General Entries' Random Draw Winner on Oct.4 ? | 1664852783399 | JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.179117062891248 | True | play | NO | public | 1662392581567 | Stormtrooper TK-293 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Tokyo Marathon 2023 is due to take place on Sunday 5th March. Tokyo is home to the 6th and newest of the Abbott World Marathon Majors and 2023 will see the 16th anniversary of the event. Field size will be 37,500 runners in total. General entry... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664852783399 | 140 | stormtk293 | 1664852752621 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662392582144}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1662392665657}] | ["sports-default", "personal-goals"] | 0.5 | 1664852712701 | 1664852747215 | 0.11633481604519329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.04142233191519887 | uxrOnIx8fiwnzgzV0gMF | {"NO": 889.2204904914801, "YES": 2437.1605976173055} | 0.01552167936043135 | will-the-us-congress-propose-a-cons | 3195.067645204469 | Will the US Congress propose a Constitutional amendment by end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1662393349073 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US Congress proposes a Constitutional amendment (which requires a 2/3 vote in both the House and Senate) between now and the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "... | BINARY | {"day": -3.2959746043559335e-17, "week": -3.2959746043559335e-17, "month": -3.2959746043559335e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | jack | 1708921298188 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662393349594}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1708921298047 | 1708863565139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4506797300119626 | 6dXuwlg3D1cZzgjrx3R7 | {"NO": 6726.158310263573, "YES": 251.59024608868066} | 1 | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-write-a-twee | 639172.6998467658 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023? | 1704170439551 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0.015859181887079722 | 0.6419800026882378 | True | basic | YES | public | 1662398952972 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Il miglior fabbro, FerrisHueller.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1566832745568952320"}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704215479806 | 1845 | SG | 1704526270178 | 6.6 | 21 | 608 | 0 | 1 | 148 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663104506525}, {"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1662398953503}, {"name": ... | ["sf-bay-rationalists", "fun", "linguistics", "rationalussy", "unexpected-rationalussy-paradox", "jskfs-blocked-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "2023-market-of-the-year-candidates"] | 0.25173543282092176 | 0.5 | 1704088728233 | 1704230016020 | False | 0.96 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5043451230481858 | 9kSOw9yc44neNrPMM6Qk | {"NO": 178.04451869161178, "YES": 137.62859608032153} | 0.5682846134407563 | will-all-parts-of-final-fantasy-7-r | 471.4291932152316 | Will all parts of Final Fantasy 7 Remake be released before 2028? | 1830293940000 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1662399465189 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Final Fantasy VII Remake was released for the PlayStation 4 in April 2020. Final Fantasy VII Rebirth is scheduled for late 2023 or early 2024 for PlayStation 5. Square Enix revealed Final Fantasy VII Remake will be a trilogy.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | Chocobo | 1713092389092 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 3 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1662399465667}] | ["gaming"] | 0.5 | 1713092385811 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.35658333329433733 | 8z7DppAiDGspoo1TXPZD | {"NO": 128.75116226442458, "YES": 2560.622686049527} | 0 | will-jonathan-blow-announce-the-tit | 2631.882094199568 | Will Jonathan Blow announce the title of his untitled Sokoban game in 2023? | 1704088740000 | LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.671375296780418 | True | play | NO | public | 1662403519598 | wavedash | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704151480970 | 420 | wavedash | 1704151481141 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c | 1 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 10 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1662403520074}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703130400351}] | ["gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704042336007 | 1691089733594 | 0.03 | LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28541051319825006 | 2zqQzCkLidM60N9PGxbh | {"NO": 45.446140207274524, "YES": 845.807901835903} | 0 | will-i-hire-another-new-employee-th | 1240.5073083892592 | Will I hire another new employee this year? | 1672559940000 | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.232185852825614 | True | play | NO | public | 1662406576240 | SneakySly | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CONTEXT: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Currently we (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Mega Crit Games", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ") have been slowly growing and have hired enough so that our... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672607414313 | 140 | SneakySly | 1672551253227 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.5 | 1672551253005 | 1663995112746 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999998 | pdvEGG2XWVJs1TnipoC3 | {"NO": 43.115224591137334, "YES": 231.9366324733379} | 0 | i-will-resolve-this-market-dishonor | 810.8844124932821 | I will resolve this market dishonorably. | 1662879540000 | 1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.116507569709902 | True | play | NO | public | 1662409021599 | Future Telling Owl | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve this market in whichever way makes me the most mana. Probably.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Probabl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1662913472533 | 100 | FutureOwl | 1662941572541 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFutureOwl%2FXYCT2NQkYd.44?alt=media&token=d1f2390e-ef8d-4731-be88-187a42fd5af2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "Gambling", "slug": "gambling", "userId": "1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3", "groupId": "PqwKmXzv3O7b1ICBAZ4H", "createdTime": 1662409022110}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 1662961941980}] | ["gambling", "improperly-resolved"] | 0.5 | False | 1662872868852 | 1662941567164 | 0.27983597968991497 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | 7soGkU5PKkXpsY7qTtFa | {"NO": 36.557441101714716, "YES": 273.54212162105995} | 0 | will-i-call-shorttermists-shorty | 1502.3806471059875 | Will I call short-termists "shorty"? | 1665039540000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.106773373245025 | True | play | NO | public | 1662410666269 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Longtermists believe we need to stop AI from killing us in the next 20 years.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Short-termists believe in eradicating malaria.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665441403261 | 100 | Sinclair | 1665186424019 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1662410666733}] | ["sf-bay-rationalists"] | 0.5 | 1665032064207 | 1665186421898 | 0.11788936682376651 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.