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0.5000000000000003
8YBVJBRB7GZ82WratjFh
{"NO": 17.81774170458714, "YES": 561.2383525250846}
0
are-there-more-than-50-university-s
596.9282499426604
Are there more than 50 university students active on Manifold?
1663081140000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
4.105825730574435
True
play
NO
public
1662668249280
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve yes if 50 users comment on the linked market that they are students before ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " market closes (comments made after the linked market resolves st...
BINARY
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1663107045274
100
Jenny
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0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
16
0
1
15
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["manifold-6748e065087e"]
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1663076379975
1662668516751
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{"NO": 2312.473340459772, "YES": 105.83427745199913}
1
will-exactly-one-of-joe-biden-and-k
3024.4960419356585
Will exactly one of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris attend the Queen's funeral?
1663655539547
1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3
cpmm-1
0
1.5814301155141604
True
play
YES
public
1662668314038
Future Telling Owl
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral and Kamala Harris does not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Kamala Harris attends the Queen's funeral and Joe Biden does not.", "type": "te...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663655539547
440
FutureOwl
1663655503976
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFutureOwl%2FXYCT2NQkYd.44?alt=media&token=d1f2390e-ef8d-4731-be88-187a42fd5af2
35
0
32
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662668314646}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1663655503681
1662989639118
0.9650405092793002
NAaPgHR2xXJ5oNrgIIlt
tutbad-where-are-the-missing-people
932.0182822440592
[TUTBAD] Where are the missing people?
1664298395645
PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.662681424431542
True
play
9838fbaf91a4
public
1662671156285
horse
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to where ever it turns out most of the missing people are. Specific beats general. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664298395645
580
horse
1663164968067
0
https://firebasestorage.…dbf-8a696946045f
8
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e1228e27b864", "prob": 0.009499937671754813, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.09037842172365437, "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.423202071795501, "textFts": "", "contractId": "NAaPgHR2xXJ5oNrgIIlt", "createdTime": 1662671157007, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...
7
[{"name": "This Used To Be About Markets", "slug": "this-used-to-be-about-markets", "userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2", "groupId": "RqpmlE3BYQqVyRiNfvMv", "createdTime": 1662671156850}]
["this-used-to-be-about-markets"]
1663164967943
1663089241447
{"9838fbaf91a4": 100}
True
0.43042433143511805
c6q6VqtbchKMCoawv0s8
{"NO": 77.96685545766024, "YES": 2024.2932004435215}
0
will-more-republicans-be-elected-to
2621.8032071032485
Will more Republicans be elected to the House than 538 predicts?
1668651483703
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0
2.0020985450419646
True
play
NO
public
1662671168005
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the number of Republicans elected to the house is more than the average number of seats 538 predicts they will hold, as given by [their model](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-...
BINARY
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1668651483703
360
BoltonBailey
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0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
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0
1
25
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1662671168605}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181863647}]
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1668326603676
1667851499609
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where-should-i-redirect-effectiveev
47.0250846404049
Where should I redirect effectiveevil.com?
1663311540000
ohTjaxMDhaaravDG9bNu4kqmNVd2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.92925366588846
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662673565076
Devansh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For dumb reasons, I now own the domains ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "effectiveevil.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://effectiveevil.com", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:und...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1680367703088
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Devansh
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ANYONE
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1663308226859
1662775350226
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0.18089065761443932
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{"NO": 168.25762561197072, "YES": 1869.9568744284395}
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will-australia-announce-a-referendu
1784.2257988162974
Will Australia announce a referendum on becoming a republic by 2024?
1704027540000
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cpmm-1
0
2.642239101315865
True
play
NO
public
1662673773763
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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1704098447159
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Keepcalmandchill
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will-jamaica-become-a-republic-by-2
3062.904621083451
Will Jamaica become a republic by 2024?
1704027540000
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cpmm-1
0
3.3556577457865
True
play
NO
public
1662673830400
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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1704099832373
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Keepcalmandchill
1704099832818
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["politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
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1703488727616
1662842567486
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{"NO": 74.1195700472847, "YES": 5871.086643088782}
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will-there-be-15-or-more-named-trop
16102.143696862888
Will there be 15 or more named tropical system in north Atlantic during the cyclonic season 2022
1676501940000
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cpmm-1
3.0107413885703056
True
play
NO
public
1662674435358
Nathnath
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if the NHC have named 15 system or more for this cyclonic season in the last update available February, 15th, 2023", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1676744136482
590
Nathnath
1676744133710
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlVm74deJmOXw55ja0RwAYn3sGUcjDK0yKHUMR_=s96-c
1
15
0
1
12
[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1663603313873}]
["weather"]
0.5
1676485172628
1676744131968
0
0.7625432806535706
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{"NO": 6954.939238417974, "YES": 178.8227268107944}
1
when-will-manifold-allow-date-as-a
7962.178829034902
When will Manifold allow 'date' as a unique answer type in 2023?
1704035082234
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0.4674213811208764
1.8892990492011643
True
play
MKT
public
1662677747423
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the number of days since start of 2023 to when Manifold implements \"date\" markets: Jan 1 = 1, Dec 31 = 365.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If date markets are implemented in 2022...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1704035082234
540
Jenny
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https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
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33
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["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
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1
will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kupi
12668.72754590445
Will Ukraine regain control of all of Kupiansk (including the eastern half) by the end of 2022?
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Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.0192152705866375
True
play
YES
public
1662682173614
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kupiansk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kupiansk", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 ...
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664745253670
220
Jenny
1664745159893
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
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0
37
[{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1662682665823}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662682649214}, {"name": "Ukraine Counterof...
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1664745159802
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0.9817698443441304
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otM0TEFn6EPWvRio3kSW
{"NO": 6735, "YES": 1.484780994803259}
1
will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-2035e41b5c46
6680
Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $8 on September 9, 2022?
1662750000000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
5.322782145352234
True
play
YES
public
1662686761009
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1662753675895
100
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1662749633834
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
7
0
1
7
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1662686761759}]
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{"NO": 19653.609087548815, "YES": 170.06273953593308}
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will-the-unnamed-schoolhomeschoolin
19790.7745560251
Will the unnamed school/homeschooling-co-op thing we're trying to figure out be all set to go by the fall 2023 semester?
1673981035925
hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43
cpmm-1
0
1.2348090803523153
True
play
YES
public
1662686898444
Alicorn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if, by or before fall 2023, there is a schooling-related project of some description that members of my extended household are heavily involved in (regardless of who else is participating by then) which includes my firstborn child...
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1673981035925
780
Alicorn
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0
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[{"name": "SF Bay Rationalists", "slug": "sf-bay-rationalists", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "RtQOEuXgzqtlxq13Fzt3", "createdTime": 1670521416799}, {"name": "Valinor", "slug": "valinor", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "umnW4Jfo9cUq1wYRNyvd", "createdTime": 1670521408799}, {...
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1673972066950
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{"NO": 7374.148264218864, "YES": 201.66394398969845}
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will-disconfirming-evidence-of-the
10969.257815027364
Will disconfirming evidence of the purported tomb of Genghis Kahn be discovered before the end of 2023?
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cpmm-1
0.07892531853441401
0.9786158037361838
True
play
YES
public
1662691280104
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ARCHAEOLOGISTS UNEARTH TOMB OF GENGHIS KHAN", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://archaeology-world.com/archaeologists-unearth-tomb-of-genghis-khan/", "class": "no-underlin...
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1704143145709
980
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1704143146135
2.2
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quem-vai-o-primeiro-ministro-da-eco
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Quem vai ser o primeiro ministro da economia do Lula?
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cpmm-multi-1
0
4.663578435830207
True
play
6ed29efa6294
public
1662691467252
Franklin Baldo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 9, 3:03pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Quem vai o primeiro ministro da economia do Lula?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Quem vai ser o primeiro ministro da economia do Lula?", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1662737343535
Helmsman
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Will Jiang Zemin be alive before 2024?
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1.4391683007750231
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1662739108179
Stormtrooper TK-293
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will-manifold-implement-an-algorith
428.7366648551114
Will Manifold implement an Algorithmic Home Page in 2022?
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cpmm-1
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1662742708037
Adrian
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will-hans-niemann-confess-that-he-c
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IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
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What kind of iPhone will I buy?
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will-this-market-get-m100000-invest
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will-someone-other-than-biden-harri
73641.44939202766
Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
1730786340000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0.11535516416452864
9.888424674859081
False
basic
public
1662847907284
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Democratic nominee is someone other than Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Gavin Newsom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Long overdue disambiguation: this refers...
BINARY
{"day": -0.03434850272391457, "week": 0.0206627989970192, "month": 0.054841876944049135}
0
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3652
1100
Charlie
1720240733059
1.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
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4
38
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0.23257230264060552
0.5
1720240729917
1699352569265
0.4224447711413205
nGGDDgEmeZf8VMGZ15pS
{"NO": 49.901278179646496, "YES": 2162.068199926237}
0
will-ukraine-regain-control-of-lysy
7171.12332266932
Will Ukraine regain control of Lysychansk by the end of 2022?
1672549140000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
2.682011328143264
True
play
NO
public
1662852524118
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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0
1672604909436
260
Jenny
1672305309259
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
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0
1
48
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["wars", "world-default", "russia", "ukraine", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1672305309079
1663595651535
False
0.02
0.6629416278540128
pNOOWnUEzyb2YwZvSgAf
{"NO": 1569.8753135564339, "YES": 33.55087575322726}
1
2022-confirmed-startup-layoffs-http
1770.3011187748675
2022 Confirmed Startup Layoffs (https://layoffs.fyi/) over 110,000 by EOD 31 Dec 2022?
1668136030155
jkmSAh3oALhfWY6o993XQMfanuu2
cpmm-1
0
4.191607472846098
True
play
YES
public
1662853928094
Jonathan Mo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As measured by site ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Layoffs.fyi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Layoffs.fyi", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-4...
BINARY
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668136030155
140
JonathanMo
1668133638005
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml0IaVsA8hrQBTEJMok7OdQ-8aBKz9hvXY1OmYa=s96-c
11
0
11
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "jkmSAh3oALhfWY6o993XQMfanuu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1662853928587}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1668133613727}]
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1668037572253
1668133635924
0.9892508294838592
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{"NO": 1203.4931581786022, "YES": 8.309145699784608}
1
will-xi-jinping-meet-with-narendra
1441.5068418213978
Will Xi Jinping meet with Narendra Modi by the end of September?
1663280054218
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
5.294904421689974
True
play
YES
public
1662860042272
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi meeting before the end of the month? Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663280054218
100
XiJinping
1663280039264
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
3
0
2
[{"name": "Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)", "slug": "shanghai-cooperation-organization-s", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "ZRQ4KAulHfp7Ud1KjFUD", "createdTime": 1662860042839}]
["shanghai-cooperation-organization-s"]
0.5
1663280039068
0.8556767766458053
0.7711068259730873
zCCrVn6NXI1BwwRm16L2
{"NO": 1878.7191638343484, "YES": 134.8322339558233}
1
will-xi-jinping-meet-with-joe-biden
4487.325565261912
Will Xi Jinping meet with Joe Biden in 2022?
1668439838550
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
2.491266490910964
True
play
YES
public
1662861164837
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping and Joe Biden meet one-on-one in 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668439838550
280
XiJinping
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0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
22
0
20
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1668421423274
1668386507990
0.9791409101351485
0.3772270989874494
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{"NO": 1921.7257525128202, "YES": 7782.886436890432}
0.13010415074220197
will-the-liberal-party-form-the-nex
62469.91666483555
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?
1761029940000
Rf5sxGGGFNdQIdiAjbEYkSGNBLD2
cpmm-1
0
6.109809654436299
False
basic
public
1662872916442
Gwylim Ashley
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if, after the 45th Canadian federal election, the Liberal Party forms the next government.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 11, 9:48am: This resolves to YES in the case of a...
BINARY
{"day": 0.007268395543563899, "week": 0.007268395543563899, "month": -0.02782773727560814}
0
{"creatorFee": 35.571362388844285, "platformFee": 16.831562236501927, "liquidityFee": 0}
50
3307.75
gwylim
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0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgrwAS73Y2nXHvznVAC6GrIsFvifgLK2xMMNiMK=s96-c
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https://firebasestorage.…80c-a4f545bf60db
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[{"name": "Canadian Politics", "slug": "canadian-politics", "userId": "Rf5sxGGGFNdQIdiAjbEYkSGNBLD2", "groupId": "XUjgI120xjTU5n382rWL", "createdTime": 1662872917011}, {"name": "Canada", "slug": "canada", "groupId": "SkT5CgJLsfHhVpK8V2C6", "createdTime": 1698239501125}]
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1720166009373
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when-will-the-next-major-ai-milesto-cccd66eac77d
99
When will the next major AI milestone occur?
1671776344858
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.838765195702915
True
play
3de858cddd7f
public
1662880096154
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quarter and year, eg “Q4 2022”", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be on the level of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "parag...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1671776344858
360
Gigacasting
1671776371609
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "59892940a224", "prob": 0.252518875785965, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 17.61253632247054, "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.134868768145054, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Meqqkxzx8ohhrpmUMBV4", "createdTime": 1662880096993, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
3
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662880096782}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908340}]
["technology-default", "ai"]
1670046210655
1671776369311
False
{"3de858cddd7f": 100}
True
0.36670444500488586
H8pfYi1AeXKPdQQxEvYW
{"NO": 362.35097522182343, "YES": 24095.772923122782}
0
will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or
134254.41387711265
Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership in 2023?
1704095940000
quyam6bWf9gibduNgMERpKy30bq2
cpmm-1
0
0.6711375237024821
True
basic
NO
public
1662884115327
Aurelius
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if Tiktok is banned in the US or forced to change ownership by any US government action by the closing date (Dec 31 2023). This includes any US government action that makes it more difficult for TikTok to operate in the US with...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704129589114
1790
Aurelius
1704227594959
1.2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqSfG0q6e2djQsJxxoRjNCKJ9ydDWRalFib_d5ZAw=s96-c
17
678
0
1
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0.2441869533884295
0.5
1704079942383
1704227594111
0.01
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0.49999999999999994
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{"NO": 23.76075071771428, "YES": 420.8621233732641}
0
will-the-armed-fantasia-penny-blood
711.7929329744521
Will the "Armed Fantasia & Penny Blood" Kickstarter reach $3 million?
1664556600000
SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1
cpmm-1
0
3.726990536954452
True
play
NO
public
1662884307103
Chocobo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/doublekickstarter/armed-fantasia-and-penny-blood/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/doublekickstarter/armed-fantasia-and-penny-blood/", "class":...
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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664558115269
100
Chocobo
1664557986667
0
https://firebasestorage.…aa8-0ffda942bc16
10
0
1
10
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1662884307795}]
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1664552987236
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0.5025648206558082
will-lithium-price-continue-to-rise
364.9661358169285
Will lithium price continue to rise higher?
1672495140000
WKfbtvgoUZaKRDhQsLvD7VRH2j92
cpmm-1
0
2.0541574155580027
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662892932579
JayJay
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680824814610
160
JayJay
1680824813517
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlwV8W3j8QoLOvFuNOmqqnAwJ9q8yaPaWSMfWj2=s96-c
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1672493430777
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0.36368857642521923
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{"NO": 43.99338459426464, "YES": 436.7815491271055}
0
will-donald-trump-attend-the-queens
573.2184508728944
Will Donald Trump attend the Queen’s funeral?
1663587217300
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
3.5842733096290047
True
play
NO
public
1662897621370
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump attends the funeral, NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587217300
120
XiJinping
1663367588154
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
16
0
14
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1663367587993
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0.4999999999999999
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0
will-bill-clinton-attend-the-queens
506.04529459620375
Will Bill Clinton attend the Queen’s funeral?
1663587006180
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
4.033678511513786
True
play
NO
public
1662897689176
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Clinton attends the funeral, NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1663587006180
100
XiJinping
1663512305394
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
5
0
5
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662897689626}]
["royal-funeral"]
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1663512305215
0.03404271198283275
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if-weed-is-legalised-for-sale-in-th
0
If weed is legalised for sale in the UK, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?
1662897781161
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.0189258735310585
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662897751292
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662897781161
220
NathanpmYoung
1662897752308
0
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0
ANYONE
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[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1662897751840}]
["uk-politics"]
1662897751292
True
0.49999999999999983
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{"NO": 24.674066522917563, "YES": 405.28382262047893}
0
will-donald-trump-attend-shinzo-abe
560.290725717458
Will Donald Trump attend Shinzo Abe's funeral?
1664290476055
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
3.6809655770677767
True
play
NO
public
1662897822437
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump attends Abe's funeral, NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664290476055
100
XiJinping
1664290444136
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
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0
12
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1662897822849}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181891929}]
["magaland", "donald-trump"]
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1664290443976
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0.057387170106532055
0.5049150300827073
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{"NO": 142.39936085560697, "YES": 137.635568903999}
0.5134184964597238
if-weed-is-legalised-for-sale-in-en
63.7912868395719
If weed is legalised for sale in England, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?
1737244740000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662897838203
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
NathanpmYoung
1684835729591
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
7
0
7
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1662897838736}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736943956}]
["uk-politics", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1684835729402
1663636630730
0.4337390997627766
NkcaxyeDxYj6fXf09DRH
{"NO": 134.62502826292985, "YES": 193.77976785714748}
0.34731994121880755
if-weed-is-not-legalised-for-sale-i
85.20447660012164
If weed is not legalised for sale in England, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?
1737244740000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662897873165
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
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0
160
NathanpmYoung
1684410590444
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
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4
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1662897873498}]
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1684410590283
0.19211824259651636
BdgvAlTSKZgwb2PymyHs
{"NO": 51.53594001472295, "YES": 906.7001837322048}
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will-george-w-bush-attend-the-queen
932.9843000981646
Will George W. Bush attend the Queen's funeral?
1663559940000
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
5.743456915544709
True
play
NO
public
1662897964309
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Dubya attends he funeral, NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587115569
140
XiJinping
1663518454341
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
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0
1
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1663518452370
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teu5EQv3YKstkYtzFIvG
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will-xi-jinping-attend-the-queens-f
987.9450380775332
Will Xi Jinping attend the Queen's funeral?
1663587100163
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
3.046688111479648
True
play
NO
public
1662898982856
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi attends the funeral, NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587100163
100
XiJinping
1663512125368
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https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
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10
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1663512125201
1662992847287
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0.5048383272097843
075bfEBLp318HiVUWDfc
{"NO": 457.71290833655166, "YES": 88.88718542788521}
0
will-peter-thiel-make-another-large
1049.2869906671028
Will Peter Thiel make another large donation to any Senate campaign in 2022?
1668056340000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
1.9137113683567266
True
play
NO
public
1662899796375
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Thiel makes another large donation, resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
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0
1669913076367
350.36165681027865
BTE
1668060988454
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
18
0
3
19
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1668055084480
1668061079455
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0
will-donald-trump-use-the-funds-in
1073.1973388390443
Will Donald Trump use the funds in the PACs he controls to provide substantial financial support to candidates he endorses in 2022?
1668056340000
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
0.886221463446189
True
play
NO
public
1662899973938
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Trump contributes more than 25 percent of the funds available to him in PACs and other political fundraising entities. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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0
1668060663940
716.8977405287973
BTE
1668060659328
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
16
0
1
15
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1668055072689
1668060747341
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0.1501253184173046
qe87AgGDoEWPjrGq9eee
what-will-quinn-ds-results-be-on-16
110
what will quinn d’s results be on 16personalities.com?
1662903746631
sJ1G8EUzwVWMQuqdi3nCnBcizkm1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
1c9b406c12c7
public
1662902856364
NY
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662903746631
260
NY
1662903968224
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkOlj3Z8sU9oJqLNbHq23n5zWEfR5_1U0WNQS2u3Q=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
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2
1662903719662
1662903963607
{"1c9b406c12c7": 100}
True
BaiCUUcOadM47io8CBvA
conditional-market-if-weed-is-legal
669.9152841591977
Conditional market: If weed is legalised for sale in England, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?
1737244740000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662905286633
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the same market as the other two but I'm trying a different format. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.1202908739579867, "platformFee": 2.1202908739579867, "liquidityFee": 0}
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NathanpmYoung
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9
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ANYONE
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6
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1662905287135}, {"name": "UK policies by the next election", "slug": "uk-policies-by-the-next-election", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "023SKlBd1yv7btKfwjHy"...
["uk-politics", "uk-policies-by-the-next-election"]
1716243920009
1716243957225
True
True
0.5396926453435343
DEQQ5J1kINHCfCTSGEv1
{"NO": 179.66386001638122, "YES": 82.63158111656593}
0.7182507171655942
if-the-snp-drops-more-than-20-withi
100.95384084482453
If the SNP drops more than 20% within 3 weeks before 2024, will the % drop of Tesla be more than 1.5x of the % drop of Coke over the first 3 weeks of the afore-mentioned drop?
1704067140000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
2.5428459511462775
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662905774152
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1705362534330
120
NathanpmYoung
1705362535075
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4
0
3
6
[{"name": "The Tesla Stock Index", "slug": "the-tesla-stock-index", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "FLrBFpNYWTnUjhOEHv2F", "createdTime": 1662905774634}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime...
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1684135698982
1705362530330
0.72
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
0.2852336919628509
fipbK1C0UcXb7OVpCPqD
{"NO": 882.6874395284603, "YES": 2209.5064499682403}
0.13750131865711082
will-charles-cease-to-be-king-of-th
48178.18708888691
Will Charles cease to be King of the UK by end of 2025?
1767243540000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
9.517764720176976
False
basic
public
1662909820005
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2025, King Charles III ceases to be King of the United Kingdom for any reason (death, abdication, official end of the monarchy, etc). Otherwise resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
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1210
jack
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https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
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1720210216762
1712018118252
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{"NO": 82.86849812629387, "YES": 4289.32846114741}
0
will-apple-announce-an-apple-watch-0c6891020f93
12034.359435327386
Will Apple Watch support blood glucose measurement in 2023?
1704095940000
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
cpmm-1
0.10043958152102087
2.4518064620247713
True
play
NO
public
1662930508052
Adrian
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will you be able to buy or preorder an Apple Watch with blood glucose measurement in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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1704096577896
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ahalekelly
1704096578306
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["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
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1
will-an-intel-cpu-have-the-highest
466.32812373289175
Will an Intel CPU have the highest 3DMark score this generation?
1668756384779
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
cpmm-1
0
3.2911647002394426
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play
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1662932140238
Adrian
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the Intel 13th gen and AMD Ryzen 7000 series CPUs launch, will an Intel CPU hold the top spot on this chart of median 3DMark Physics scores by CPU?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://benchmarks.ul.com/com...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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0
1668756384779
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ahalekelly
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0
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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662932140694}]
["technology-default"]
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0.9415350170869198
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who-will-have-the-highest-singlecor
389.70113673053135
Who will have the highest Single-Core Geekbench score at the end of 2024?
1735718340000
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662936233511
Adrian
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://browser.geekbench.com/processor-benchmarks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://browser.geekbench.com/processor-benchmarks", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"tex...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 2.5083298402955068, "platformFee": 1.3262990111192856, "liquidityFee": 0}
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ahalekelly
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[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662936243572}]
["technology-default"]
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{"NO": 66.66666666666669, "YES": 150}
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Will Alireza Firouzja beat Ian Nepomniachtchi to win the 2022 Sinquefield Cup? (Chess)
1662944828864
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cpmm-1
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2.8542327112802917
True
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YES
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1662937810241
Adrian
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BINARY
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1662944828864
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ahalekelly
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["sports-default", "chess"]
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Will Lula da Silva win the 2022 Brazil presidential election in the first round?
1664795364679
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cpmm-1
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4.951196183677991
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play
NO
public
1662939463167
Thiago Santos
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Brazilian presidential elections can have 2 rounds. A candidate wins in the first round if he receives more votes than all the others combined.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Lula da Silva wins the ...
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ThiagoSantos
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