Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.27387696261940647
AEywvxh9fwZryW4VBXR2
{"NO": 958.8387412652801, "YES": 1069.2012390794719}
0.2527526816272229
will-there-be-a-successful-asteroid
302.9383786144237
Will there be a successful asteroid deflection by 2050?
2398320000000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
3.078191837246648e-16
9.591468161762469
False
basic
public
1662411017256
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if any space agency/company successfully changes the trajectory of an asteroid, comet, or other natural object in space so as to avoid it impacting a much larger body.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
IsaacKing
1704698641357
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
19
0
11
[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1662411017659}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVkV", "createdTime": 1673104989581}]
["space", "futurism"]
0.09425129179278434
0.5
1704698641226
1662419027368
0.4895867933429922
lQlHswIE4Qxz2xx2IKrQ
{"NO": 1406.1479182432845, "YES": 1122.6978349986236}
0.5457369313717018
what-percent-of-those-taking-rapamy
415.47977994954846
What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?
1735714740000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
0
8.74347699899198
False
basic
public
1662417054266
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Of those taking rapamycin for more than 3 months to slow aging, how many have seen no change or positive effects? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 5, 4:35pm: pros of rapamycin: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.7437242021165403, "platformFee": 0.7437242021165403, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1260
ian
1714088965908
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
2
12
0
6
14
[{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1662417054790}, {"name": "Longevity", "slug": "longevity", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "b8Ygbdfv5q2sQsZQGmkl", "createdTime": 1668684722826}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's...
["health", "longevity", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1714088961990
1672331949831
0.46509882085828574
BCQzMBy7YJ9Wyr9LCyPE
{"NO": 28.646575869999893, "YES": 605.8282476941852}
0
will-kentucky-voters-pass-the-abort
1185.2544726406113
Will Kentucky voters pass the abortion amendment to state constitution?
1668003243773
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
3.5151107384506353
True
play
NO
public
1662417353357
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ballot initiative in question asks voters to amend the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kentucky Constitution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Kentucky_Constitution", "class": "no-underline !t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668003243773
249.51851961849349
BTE
1668003226422
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
21
0
18
[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1662431203540}]
["magaland"]
0.5
1668003226301
1667964579230
0.17355228779938364
HAWLSjwGzkN67sgY8FsA
if-i-take-rapamycin-what-dosage-and
16
If I take rapamycin, what dosage and schedule will I follow?
1738393140000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662418205537
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves n/a if I don’t, resolves to the schedule and dosage that I stick with for more than 3 months. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2025-01-31 11:59 pm", "type": "tex...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
540
ian
1710206869916
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "0436c29ad6ca", "prob": 0.7431629013079667, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 28.397770501945292, "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.814269485472293, "textFts": "", "contractId": "HAWLSjwGzkN67sgY8FsA", "createdTime": 1662418206211, "probChanges": {"day": -0.25683709869...
2
3
[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE"}]
["health", "ancient-markets"]
1683902636645
1672766087347
True
True
sGPSDyiKMfRJbADXw5Rk
how-many-companies-will-be-accepted
149
How many companies will be accepted into aigrant.org's first batch?
1672559940000
5wimE4rvzuVMBbkeY6Yzu89tk823
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.79777601920519
True
play
67f6798602f6
public
1662420657414
Evan Conrad
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "aigrant.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://aigrant.org", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1703603679461
520
EvanConrad
1703603954612
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwWC9VGCINJOQ9cvn65Xj4i42sqhYtTrsSXWDGh=s96-c
6
0
ANYONE
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72
5
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "5wimE4rvzuVMBbkeY6Yzu89tk823", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1662420658139}]
["ai"]
1663625153780
1703603952955
{"67f6798602f6": 100}
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
True
0.7312019880771545
txU1moEGIkFwnhDfy5MK
{"NO": 891.8615081180347, "YES": 73.14594819882666}
1
will-tiffany-smiley-receive-at-leas
1785.2100794303742
Will Tiffany Smiley Receive at least 42% of the votes in the 2022 WA Senate election?
1668412740000
N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2
cpmm-1
0
3.3510111635409867
True
play
YES
public
1662424232088
Big Chungus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 5, 9:16pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Tiffany Smiley Receive at least 42% of the votes in the 2022 WA state Senate election?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Tiffany Smiley Receive at least 42% of the ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668889665778
180
BigChungus
1668412711675
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml980-A_7MMgiiaLKrtjU9wpNeszPqd-_ea2-Dm=s96-c
9
0
2
10
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1662424232623}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1666073452338}]
["us-politics", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1668412711565
1668401949688
0.9707327953506334
0.3294059332931389
p0hW4EUwZCTS84wmGSMC
{"NO": 30.80316608288358, "YES": 1530.0020254731726}
0
will-starship-launch-before-sls
1968.5749175594701
Will Starship launch before SLS?
1668608344535
m8qHjtzoWGejcDhFIj3KaVKWND03
cpmm-1
0
4.484363890560131
True
play
NO
public
1662424992381
Yaakov Saxon
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Starship launches with a full stack on an orbital or suborbital flight test before SLS launches as part of Artemis 1, and resolves NO if SLS launches first.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragra...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668608344535
140
YaakovSaxon
1668607930085
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmlbusb0JiypZfcsCfiYsFipytmFCVVcuSLOn9BM=s96-c
23
0
23
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["space", "artemis-1"]
0.5
1668607929983
1668582074555
0.009792671783590785
0.5
dfy3CG2Z0wtpErFRtIji
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
who-registered-the-domain-manifoldm
0
Who registered the domain "manifold.market"?
1662427900298
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662427868717
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold.market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Manifold.market", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662427900298
100
Austin
1662427868717
0
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0
0
1
0.5
0.5
hHIbWcUV5oPXXn7zNPJx
who-registered-the-domain-manifoldm-2959cb00dd08
633.8277375269402
Who registered the domain "manifold.market"?
1663052340000
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.708181071998235
True
play
9ebb16826c8b
public
1662427912124
Austin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold.market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Manifold.market", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664313105355
540
Austin
1663034658886
0
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0
10
0
ANYONE
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1
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[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662427912660}]
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1662494811250
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{"NO": 407.33820122472633, "YES": 3080.9370867596085}
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will-hans-niemann-be-officially-fou
30420.323929333073
Will Hans Niemann be officially found to be cheating in a chess game in 2022?
1672549140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.2020598760700887
True
play
NO
public
1662433943888
Bionic
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 4, 6:33pm: The evidence has to be for 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673209317569
648.2164227275975
BionicD0LPH1N
1673209451943
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0
199
0
2
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what-will-tsmc-market-cap-be-at-the
26
What will TSMC market cap be at the end of 2027?
1852441140000
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cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662442599094
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
280
StochasticParrot
1683535235259
0
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0
ANYONE
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3
[{"name": "Semiconductors", "slug": "semiconductors", "userId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "groupId": "49KBGVeMphsHmxnQZY40", "createdTime": 1662497439774}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 16807369391...
["semiconductors", "ancient-markets"]
1683535149309
1683535230897
True
True
0.22951022644390193
8r1RBZ6e4JfzRoGrmN7i
{"NO": 45.23499340400208, "YES": 1359.1817589019488}
0
will-nasdaq-qqq-at-the-end-of-2022
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Will NASDAQ (QQQ) at the end of 2022 be higher than its value at the beginning of 2022?
1672646340000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
4.258673801266043
True
play
NO
public
1662442724958
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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StochasticParrot
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1672629915670
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{"NO": 91.9952677171978, "YES": 145.8001355945875}
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when-will-the-next-mission-to-kuipe
35
When will the next mission to Kuiper Belt be launched?
4133955599000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662451225162
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fractional year at which a mission to the Kuiper Belt is launched. This includes any body in the Kuiper Belt that is not considered a major planet or in orbit of a major planet.", "type": "text"}]}], "processed": true}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
120
LivInTheLookingGlass
1681015592211
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
3
0
2
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["olivia", "space"]
0.5887355477484346
1681015591889
0.39080520869700425
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{"NO": 91.80360088344253, "YES": 1081.3665638951277}
0
will-at-least-50-million-people-be
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Will at least 50 million people be in lockdown in China on 31st December, 2022?
1672491540000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
2.030576038835843
True
play
NO
public
1662455351703
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672538262097
260
Keepcalmandchill
1672056709526
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
19
0
1
20
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1662455352480}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182237278}]
["world-default", "china"]
0.5
1672056709297
False
0.05
0.124241847207062
S9I2SUnwUnBprMjb3jMR
{"NO": 843.5074686575383, "YES": 12305.33193593952}
0.009631109039756298
will-liz-truss-be-the-prime-ministe-05d15a4925ec
26033.55324226539
Will Liz Truss be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024?
1735634340000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1662455664177
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": -1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 0.0007868889016952995, "month": 0.0007868889016952995}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.6902380263072937, "platformFee": 0.06829273667244312, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1265
Keepcalmandchill
1719667143362
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
2
82
1
1
51
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1665716422131}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703120163098}]
["uk-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.13708860171584986
0.5
1719667140221
1704098423756
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
0.4999999999999956
1Imy0IANb6K1pxEV5dP3
{"NO": 3795.0825053740623, "YES": 2.6349888272098285}
1
are-there-more-than-10-university-s
5605.87193902799
Are there more than 10 university students active on Manifold?
1662719578828
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
0
2.348865845558052
True
play
YES
public
1662469436523
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve yes if 10 users comment that they are students before close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please also comment where you are studying and area of focus and we will tip you 100 mana!", "type": "text"}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662719578828
100
Manifold
1662698175971
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
52
0
51
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662469437118}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1662671777631}]
["manifold-6748e065087e", "free-money"]
0.5
1662698174710
1662683918304
0.9993061651291248
0.44572280198371234
x7gD2xcAE2ba8uqQEltp
{"NO": 313.09353724840906, "YES": 223.27182931061088}
0
will-the-amount-of-traders-on-this
858.5189278337311
Will the amount of traders on this market be a factor of the amount of mana invested on this market?
1679111940000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-1
0
1.2706117391601075
True
play
NO
public
1662469583106
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Judged by the three dots menu.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If invested/traders is an integer, this will resolve yes, otherwise no.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1679269661330
280
Ibozz91
1679112007529
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
0
17
0
1
7
[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1662469583599}]
["predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1679111939313
1679112004217
0.53
0.4136778813223792
QGCXJpayC51xq1fql5ss
{"NO": 169.53819356582648, "YES": 4500.257772199309}
0
will-gazprom-resume-natural-gas-del
7311.632215954976
Will Gazprom resume natural gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 before March 1, 2023?
1677625200000
4YGKtEPKfLcAPZTdIZuUe48c9s23
cpmm-1
0
1.1582396970650675
True
play
NO
public
1662469849607
Philippe Lemoine
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gazprom announced that it would not resume gas deliveries through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on September 2 and the Russian government has since made it clear that deliveries would not resume until the EU sanctions against Russia were lifted. This ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677632065091
660
phl43
1676687833203
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco0X0Xyza_8Q45IZKieYBa2TdR5nPzEXT72UQgj=s96-c
49
0
1
44
[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664652627047}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1662498116749}, {"name": "Geopoli...
["geopolitics", "global-macro", "russia", "nord-stream"]
0.5
1676687832063
1662767386511
0.03
8wkILaFCYcVUNNTbHQX0
who-will-win-the-massachusetts-prim
2266.393122974072
Who will win the Massachusetts primary for Lieutenant Governor?
1662532029419
OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.636032096547783
True
play
e438dfa8a530
public
1662477027509
Amyg Dala
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662532029419
340
AmygDala
1662532020313
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "7586208fea49", "prob": 0.0017869600851582671, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.01058494715325663, "userId": "OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.912852985887729, "textFts": "", "contractId": "8wkILaFCYcVUNNTbHQX0", "createdTime": 1662477028413, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1662477028221}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "mePh8oR7NzDVkqJZk8c7", "createdTime": 1678667148605}]
["politics-default", "massachusetts"]
1662532020139
{"e438dfa8a530": 100}
True
EbbTfAOyq434I0s35W4w
who-will-win-the-massachusetts-prim-2719fdaba298
1012
Who will win the Massachusetts primary for Attorney General?
1662531969627
OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.659083640262375
True
play
d0401a2112f4
public
1662477104023
Amyg Dala
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662531969627
340
AmygDala
1662531767845
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c
3
0
ANYONE
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2
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1662477104943}, {"name": "Massachusetts", "slug": "massachusetts", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "mePh8oR7NzDVkqJZk8c7", "createdTime": 1678667148602}]
["politics-default", "massachusetts"]
1662531766416
{"d0401a2112f4": 100}
True
0.5525418698847534
2DI1ua9gWU5EuJQVpUcL
{"NO": 6433.102518634411, "YES": 98.13415988110273}
1
will-usdcny-breaks-72-before-the-en
6225.606800028374
Will USD/CNY breaks 7.2 before the end of Q1 2023?
1664331281419
JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33
cpmm-1
0
1.5981390428860291
True
play
YES
public
1662477240571
Stormtrooper TK-293
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.2000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a “mo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664331281419
640
stormtk293
1710964226624
0
https://firebasestorage.…ca6-a1710c873245
9
0
7
[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1662477916715}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1662477241207}, {"name": "Chi...
["economics-default", "finance", "china"]
0.5
1664331208268
1710964225976
0.8803381515270056
0.280737916261455
VeJStflH4NaR23XDkDJp
{"NO": 270.1761654600382, "YES": 5370.078538254702}
0
will-the-pope-francis-meet-chinas-p
6987.471579517085
Will Pope Francis meet China’s president Xi in Kazakhstan this Sept?
1663217358037
JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33
cpmm-1
0
1.1473557619786092
True
play
NO
public
1662479341829
Stormtrooper TK-293
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve Yes if Pope Francis finally meets Chinese President Xi Jinping during their coinciding visits to Kazakhstan this September.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663217358037
640
stormtk293
1663217330831
0
https://firebasestorage.…ca6-a1710c873245
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29
0
26
[{"name": "Who does Xi think he is?", "slug": "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "GPloP7NvYNOoTpTWZhpJ", "createdTime": 1662491233192}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime"...
["politics-default", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "global-macro", "china"]
0.5
1663217329616
1663217227415
False
0.11596638732880699
lHnUYc6u2QYSVtFSOQDJ
how-do-i-find-a-porcupine
63
How do I find a porcupine?
1694464205347
qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.88194435917263
True
play
MKT
public
1662486331568
Alice
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How do I find a porcupine?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've asked a dozen different rangers and mountain guides for advice on how to find a porcupine. A couple rangers described porcupines...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694464205347
599.9999999999999
Alice
1694468298553
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjf0Ag8Q8WxpdRPLN_Gz4sleyjpXfPj_7a4ZXoo3w=s96-c
2
9
0
ANYONE
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1
7
[{"name": "Outdoors", "slug": "outdoors", "userId": "qJHrvvGfGsYiHZkGY6XjVfIMj233", "groupId": "nXJagFYl8Vj4j6Z0ilYc", "createdTime": 1662486332046}]
["outdoors"]
0.08835685870666196
1686862003380
1694468296919
{"45a0ba35f442": 50, "aec000ec93f7": 50}
True
hmdew3AA9Jy4f41twMEA
which-teams-will-be-relegated-from
7901.7146664442
Who will be relegated from the English Premier League at the end of this season?
1685286000000
AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.628196751013919
True
basic
MKT
public
1662492966800
Handdara
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which three teams will finish at the bottom of the English Premier League (football/soccer) and be relegated at the end of this (2022-3) season?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Valid answers w...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1685454227189
2240
MichaelBennett
1685346967823
0
https://firebasestorage.…3a8-104f224bf309
27
0
ANYONE
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1
16
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "AwBtdwWuByQHPkjrhE5IOCOMvzz2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662492967451}]
["sports-default"]
1685285596422
1685346965479
{"3e42af8baae3": 33.333333333333336, "66a272e788c5": 33.333333333333336, "7ed803ede42f": 33.333333333333336}
True
0.28179769333420457
NNsQvVXnJwhYaSWNrIT0
{"NO": 154.17318899249113, "YES": 2855.0145477249976}
0
will-digital-world-acquisition-corp
3840.7548283708866
Will Digital World Acquisition Corp merge with Trump Media and Technology Group no longer than Sep 6th 2023?
1694055540000
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
0.7595779720165344
1.822041618486284
True
play
NO
public
1662493224323
MP
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if DWAC successfully merges with TMTG. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to NO if by Sep 6th 2023 DWAC didn't merge with TMTG.", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694099365909
420.0000000000001
MP
1694050965772
2.7
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf
24
0
1
13
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1662493235891}, {"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1662495060124}]
["economics-default", "magaland"]
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0.5
1694050965579
1694031032862
0.02
0.829684892853749
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{"NO": 73.4863271272972, "YES": 184.4172465747892}
0.6600000000000003
at-what-market-cap-will-cruise-exit
96.72820111613451
At what market cap will Cruise exit?
1893484740000
oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1662497140891
barak
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to the market cap of Cruise at the end of the first day of public trading. If Cruise is acquired, the market resolves to the publicly reported acquisition price or merger value at the day the merger/acquisition is announced, in...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
160
barak
1705721894378
0
https://firebasestorage.…490-ba585c49c2ba
2
5
0
1
[{"name": "Venture Capital", "slug": "venture-capital", "userId": "oI1QtGxmvHVFXXl6yP4Ysun2YXv2", "groupId": "faNUnphw6Eoq7OJBRJds", "createdTime": 1662497141331}, {"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 167035987...
["venture-capital", "private-markets", "cruise-llc"]
0.858052389139504
1705721894164
0.4999999999999997
oK3iubhFQ4OUtk7t8lNE
{"NO": 474.9082568807339, "YES": 21.05669854148556}
1
will-middleclicking-on-the-create-a-21b05cfae47c
535
Will middle-clicking on the "Create a market" button work by the end of October?
1662504201368
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.8802582433475936
True
play
YES
public
1662499009590
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By default, middle-clicking on a link opens that link in a new tab. This works correctly for most links on Manifold, but does not work for the \"create a market\" button in the sidebar on the left. This market resolves to yes if it is working at th...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1662504201368
100
Jenny
1662503929254
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
0
6
0
6
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["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
0.5
1662503783620
1662503925155
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0.5000000000000001
mmN2Rdi1BFivb9bxKA3L
{"NO": 8.130081300813117, "YES": 1230}
0
will-digital-world-acquisition-corp-a1637b336526
1130
Will Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) shareholders approve an extension?
1663017057345
iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1
cpmm-1
0
5.331857616154064
True
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Will the lowest-scoring fantasy football player who scores a touchdown score 8 PPR fantasy points or more in Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season?
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What features will be added next to 'mana', the Discord bot for Manifold Markets?
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What kind of composite market would you like to see?
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Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $7 on September 8, 2022?
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How many of the top 10 essays (by EA Forum Karma) will win a Cause Exploration Prize?
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cpmm-1
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Benjamin Cosman
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Nathan Barnard
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cpmm-1
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5.383101372095966
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NO
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1662643994322
Jack
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jack
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cpmm-1
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4.381190858361296
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play
YES
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1662644605136
Jack
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which-premier-league-manager-will-b
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cpmm-multi-1
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4.691629579862959
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play
962007c7dfc6
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1662645402331
Nick Hansen
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
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1664722368423
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ANYONE
[{"id": "091ac6b705d7", "prob": 0.02532887896503723, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.29943070303120567, "userId": "oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.52228092678571, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mh83polg3PEYnnVvfewX", "createdTime": 1662645403015, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
3
[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "oDF3g093YceOYrOwOQKsWHhcKJ43", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1662645402856}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1662648160550}]
["sports-default", "premiere-league"]
1664714174624
1662648389606
{"962007c7dfc6": 100}
True
0.5000000000000001
POmpAiXGvxIpBvJyQ7ox
{"NO": 170.06722689075636, "YES": 235.201106828738}
0.41964104456399026
will-a-metaverse-be-announced-at-me
40
Will a "metaverse" be announced at Meta Connect 2022?
1665579033484
tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2
cpmm-1
0
1.6335337079832286
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662647387596
Multicore
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would resolve YES if one of the following was announced by Meta.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-A concrete open standard for interconnected virtual worlds, with some sort of demonstration and/or announcement of ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665579033484
200
Multicore
1665525773319
0
https://firebasestorage.…b68-511c711c6aaa
4
0
5
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1662647388173}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1664398067667
1665526029285
0.41964104456399026
Jc4RoXOvoGWj9wZ3Jvqq
who-will-win-the-f2p-tournament
340.8129019644256
[ANNOUNCEMENT] Who will win the F2P tournament?
1663347600000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.723760781542749
True
play
a712083a1a4c
public
1662649455137
Manifold
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold Markets is going to be running a one-week f2p challenge where the Manifold Markets team compete with one another to see who can earn the most mana. Users are also welcome to play along!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663565234384
620
Manifold
1664465632365
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
14
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e68b262a7a9a", "prob": 0.052801708749563726, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.2110508688843376, "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.7247763526986, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Jc4RoXOvoGWj9wZ3Jvqq", "createdTime": 1662649457179, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
19
[{"name": "F2P Tournament", "slug": "f2p-tournament", "userId": "QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33", "groupId": "6rrIja7tVW00lUVwtsYS", "createdTime": 1662694419538}]
["f2p-tournament"]
1663347592543
1664465630260
{"a712083a1a4c": 100}
True
0.17636306286065742
bAYILRobCyQnYPza0O8G
{"NO": 73.94611740092878, "YES": 775.8598418886666}
0
will-donald-j-trump-be-the-presiden-3bcc75ac006f
13958.370476642482
Will Donald J. Trump be the President of the United States of (or “for”) America by September 17th, 2022?
1663484340000
c8b49zncxgUgRdYby9cj9HVQXoj2
cpmm-1
0
2.770859290261133
True
play
NO
public
1662652836398
Dr P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You know the drill.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665026882258
160
DrP
1704342976846
0
https://firebasestorage.…164-fef8613e58d0
43
0
1
37
[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1663041239200}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1662745892725}, {"name": "Pol...
["politics-default", "free-money", "us-politics", "sketchy"]
0.5
1663368465418
1664896992882
0.020000000000000007
4Du1YTaXL25BHxc0czMY
assuming-prince-charles-becomes-kin
1505
Assuming Prince Charles becomes King in September, what regnal name will he choose?
1662662034664
l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.645788360298992
True
play
816862636e08
public
1662652981534
Christopher Chubb
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assuming that the Queen dies in September 2022, upon assuming the throne what regnal name will be taken by the heir, Prince Charles? I'm not sure of a great precise resolution condition, so I will cut it off when it becomes \"obvious\" (suggested c...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662662034664
380.00000000000006
ChristopherChubb
1662662053182
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzbts9F6ndUlv-5QEunxgzDUJsssR2C8J5AK-fy=s96-c
7
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "249be15d36cb", "prob": 0.003881949903436496, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.04200505655802464, "userId": "l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.778602525430516, "textFts": "", "contractId": "4Du1YTaXL25BHxc0czMY", "createdTime": 1662652982256, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week":...
6
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "l8ElJJYKYPUEQJ0HnrZNGIqLbFh1", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1662652982110}]
["uk-politics"]
1662661738688
1662662048498
{"816862636e08": 100}
True
0.4081884102479081
eSzzNpgWCW3CHIBh05D4
{"NO": 177.49215385055763, "YES": 137.25349078177845}
0.48
how-many-friends-will-try-my-fancy
300.86201057841004
How many friends will try my fancy massage chair by Halloween?
1667372340000
5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2
cpmm-1
0
2.019541833459361
True
play
MKT
public
1662655833880
Ruth Grace Wong
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I bought a fancy massage chair for myself for my 30th birthday. :) I want all my friends to try it!!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.costco.com/osaki-maxim-3d-le-massage-chair.product.100693353.html", "type": "text",...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667493769142
160
RuthGraceWong
1667195664659
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjWW_w_ZZaae3L60Yzzqgs08R8X3sWkXNB8VY6S7I4=s96-c
7
0
1
8
[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "5Vt2x0pxJWZJ8DkvsVEXvIJqyac2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1662655834430}]
["effective-altruism"]
0.4
1667195661003
1662679442486
0.48
0.4743193527988239
kNkWR8MoHtTjOBx9DepY
{"NO": 25.74486702459774, "YES": 1691.6618759345738}
0
will-it-be-possible-to-undo-the-res-362e86192a3a
2107.2964933859307
Will it be possible to undo the resolution of a market in 2022?
1672549140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
3.4244892467010626
True
play
NO
public
1662657509415
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by 12/31 it is possible for an author to undo a market resolution. Any capability to undo (even if it's just a few seconds) will count for the purposes of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672549851250
220
jack
1672326344867
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
22
0
1
23
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1662657523247}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1672326344724
1670971437306
0.01
0.5000000000000001
y1T736hwnTx4Z7TMuBGV
{"NO": 115.23809523809523, "YES": 86.7768595041322}
0.5704433881399519
will-i-see-bioluminescent-waters-in
25
Will I see bioluminescent waters in Tomales bay this Friday?
1662764568485
GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2
cpmm-1
0
2.782638205580615
True
play
CANCEL
public
1662660161682
Inga Wei
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm going to be kayaking in the waters from 7-10 PM. Will I be lucky enough to see glowing waters?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1662764568485
100
IngaWei
1663278977688
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6N07nPem5iQHy1ZAOHOiKBJzjxa1rs9hBUjldvA=s96-c
4
0
5
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "GRwzCexe5PM6ThrSsodKZT9ziln2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1662660162481}]
["science-default"]
0.5
1662679564689
1663278973569
0.5704433881399519
0.4008884279989683
ExDpR2BsZga5wV0qScqG
{"NO": 85.6200528290904, "YES": 123.76359487306026}
0
will-prince-william-sit-next-to-pri
98.41050315767747
Will Prince William sit next to Prince Harry at the Queen's funeral?
1663587078584
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
2.9186605855918653
True
play
NO
public
1662661734051
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Prince William and Prince Harry sit side by side at the funeral service for Queen Elizabeth. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587078584
117.55839619044218
XiJinping
1662762851597
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
4
0
3
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662661734573}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1662762851312
0.31643185831211174
0.3812929968556014
rSHb7vr5zIdKv6oPVbIB
{"NO": 98.41850511034951, "YES": 162.30413430766885}
0
will-kate-middleton-and-meghan-mark
99.69087164776411
Will Kate Middleton and Meghan Markle sit next to each other at the Queen's funeral?
1663587194889
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
2.6147379144457314
True
play
NO
public
1662661846457
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Meghan Markle and Kate Middleton sit next to each other at Queen Elizabeth's funeral. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587194889
138.4052623656894
XiJinping
1663546007987
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
8
0
6
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662661846950}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1663546007790
0.27203805232273764
0.8120888141204784
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{"NO": 2391.8442031130494, "YES": 419.3957409269335}
1
will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu
8440.721737528916
Will Joe Biden attend the Queen's funeral?
1663587023183
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
1.1884795083120805
True
play
YES
public
1662662000973
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587023183
711.6025059675117
XiJinping
1663510338687
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
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77
0
67
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662662001409}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1663510338510
1662767031494
0.9610087140530736
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oam44yKIEsOf0M0cwdpP
{"NO": 899.0967718393189, "YES": 1201.0417299430155}
0.20798995116612537
will-king-charles-iii-of-englands-r
4033.0707794178747
Will King Charles III of England's reign be long enough for the development of AGI?
3051845940000
1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2
cpmm-1
0
9.64255370272915
False
basic
public
1662662670317
Stochastic Cockatoo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0.01476604022948197, "month": 0.01798995116612548}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.4572156110104038, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
StochasticParrot
1719776951868
0
https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855
62
1
43
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["science-default", "uk-politics", "technology-default", "effective-altruism"]
0.5
1719776948164
1707407793979
0.7599249541784137
wT5SKY2M1pr1KGWXN5Fw
{"NO": 26.567267260466394, "YES": 144.20989439116153}
0
will-more-than-200-people-attend-th
383.2756003396577
Will more than 200 people attend the Ascension Council meeting tomorrow?
1662868740000
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
4.248413840215366
True
play
NO
public
1662662880640
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Ascension Council is held within 24 hours or so of the Queen's death. 200 people attended the Queen's Ascension Council. Will more than 200 attend this time for King Charles Ascension Council?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663342142849
141.03249520869775
XiJinping
1663472352134
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
8
0
1
6
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662662881157}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1662862246854
1663472350015
0.36834535928791223
0.6864375591437893
HK8Ml5wUmTRWKjaDd3YM
{"NO": 8.776378372251571, "YES": 295.1812325490067}
0
will-kamala-harris-attend-the-queen
542.617114893897
Will Kamala Harris attend the Queen's funeral?
1663586986232
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
4.597545506334819
True
play
NO
public
1662665802115
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Vice President Kamala Harris attends the Queen's funeral.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663586986232
130.91517492748852
XiJinping
1663545767321
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
12
0
9
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662665802762}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1663545767123
0.06111079642183503
0.7917414721723521
3Kl7UHSHhGyYeBmT7DQW
{"NO": 0.10160704872373572, "YES": 582.1946363421373}
0
will-a-famous-musician-perform-at-t
679.7646536778857
Will a famous musician perform at the Queen's funeral?
1663587172676
prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2
cpmm-1
0
6.681219933931697
True
play
NO
public
1662665921219
Helmsman
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a famous musician performs at the Queen's funeral. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1663587172676
146.02428021922537
XiJinping
1663587165485
0
https://firebasestorage.…ab6-0b61f6494a4d
10
0
10
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662665921607}]
["royal-funeral"]
0.5
1663587165308
1662724779892
0.8891821024432279
ccX4IUWuLecJG0LMY8LV
what-will-the-official-cause-of-dea
763.5713806188633
What will the official 'Cause of Death' of the Queen be?
1664526105878
Td8BtEF3PoWxxYIpgxpQHAkZJAr2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.676570294457465
True
play
2d5c2c45c9f3
public
1662668134591
Esports Stocks
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whatever is stated on the official death certificate.", "type": "text"}]}]}
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664526105878
500
EsportsStocks
1664485777679
0
https://firebasestorage.…37c-4ac362d674a6
11
0
ANYONE
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8
[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "Td8BtEF3PoWxxYIpgxpQHAkZJAr2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1662668135068}]
["royal-funeral"]
1664485679883
1664485775406
{"2d5c2c45c9f3": 100}
True