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will-prince-william-be-crowned-king

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Olivia's Market Manager Bot

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will-you-be-able-to-bet-on-noneante

1314.0783461975307

Will you be able to bet on None/ante in free response markets via the API by market close?

1664596740000

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

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5.282902817208553

True

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NO

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1663029893534

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently you can do that in the web panel, but if you can bet on it in the API, it is not clear. It does not have an ID to reference when fetching via the API, for instance", "type": "text"}]}]}

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0.025164728946251273

will-walmart-will-issue-a-stablecoi

23980.140661732534

Will Walmart will issue a stablecoin before 2025?

1735711140000

JwU3H3NitlcThJcwknJgVy0aXqW2

cpmm-1

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10.126311561292578

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1663035174143

Stephen F2P

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will-king-charless-coronation-take

4886.662178811174

Will King Charles's coronation take place in 2022?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

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2.7493596175431674

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1663037206739

Jack

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will-manifold-improve-the-frontend

44.48226568573253

Will Manifold improve the Free response front-end before the back-end?

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cpmm-1

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2.193851860515473

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1663039625688

Esports Stocks

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who-is-the-current-queenking-of-haw

4

Who is the current queen/king of Hawaii?

1663657140000

L7kGD2e1dxelqsUBGv6LUL9nXR82

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.006127541774194

True

play

CANCEL

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1663039840827

Broke Sinclair

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1664465413623

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clarity

1663137740733

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will-the-open-to-close-return-of-sp

20

Will the Open to Close return of SPY be positive on 2022-09-16?

1663476625602

lPaDAupCtChR8WXM83HmDCWOI4X2

cpmm-1

0

2.424587273318707

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YES

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1663045810606

Cactus

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1663476625602

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Cactus

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1663299706118

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in-the-glowfic-thread-for-no-laid-c

1537.2874600081536

In the glowfic thread 'for no laid course prepare', does the Patient work in the Basement of the World?

1663900355693

1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2

cpmm-1

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1.6607055554579782

True

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CANCEL

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1663045899379

Numendil

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1663900355693

240

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1663471322237

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who-will-win-the-2023-college-footb

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Who will win the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship?

1673348400000

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.620159679219469

True

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88352623333d

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1663066617315

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1678696063274

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starting-from-october-1-on-what-dat

65

Starting from October 1, on what date will I have my *second* alcoholic drink?

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cpmm-multi-1

0

4.879110231567943

True

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19484891d87f

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1663071974559

Ida Mayer

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1668395672325

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IdaMayer

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1668225781496

1668395665421

{"19484891d87f": 100}

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okQJIHwucWDdC1kTO0Lj

{"NO": 1543.3809349318158, "YES": 74.58794726859344}

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will-the-federal-reserve-funds-rate

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Will the Federal Reserve Funds Rate lower limit be equal or higher than 5% at any time during the year 2023?

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2.402116746156982

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YES

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1663073090103

MP

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1683165656983

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Will Peter Thiel comment approvingly/mostly positively on the TV series The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power?

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cpmm-1

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10.320084720579334

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1663079703586

Garreth Byrne

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for-no-laid-course-prepare-is-any-a

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[for no laid course prepare] is any aspect of Merrin's medical drama a deliberate test?

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1663079892006

extent_of_foxes

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extent_of_foxes

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will-a-study-performed-by-the-dog-a

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Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

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9.580662974338122

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1663083411074

Garreth Byrne

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GarrethByrne

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Will Paul Sztorc's BIP301 (blind merged mining) be implemented into bitcoin by Bitcoin Core before 2030?

1663714740000

lu8tOTybSbZXFrhhjgKbdcOThl43

cpmm-1

0

2.4867180892099565

True

play

CANCEL

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1663084057096

Garreth Byrne

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GarrethByrne

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[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "EizvHrskQuP1VjuoMuLQdiLHEE22", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1663096855152}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676091893688}]

["culture-default", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1669854777194

1680902347165

0.66

0.34632653651898737

68m7dSHtghXLEQ5xRm0J

{"NO": 62.60791752969642, "YES": 1310.994373993094}

0

will-the-usd-overtake-the-gbp-in-va

3746.4318831574838

Will the USD overtake the GBP in value by the start of 2023?

1672527540000

rswVPA3akzcQQPnVfzezbygU7Mr2

cpmm-1

0

2.8683804042295167

True

play

NO

public

1663097613212

Florence Hinder

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672573641862

200

FlorenceHinder

1672302752636

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucp0klLjgb83aO_DU1ZFFyuAKg0fUEQ68oT4QAEYzVM=s96-c

16

0

1

12

[{"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "rswVPA3akzcQQPnVfzezbygU7Mr2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1663097613672}]

["finance"]

0.5

1672302752449

0.02

0.03478847432541803

RuDxLZ2enYYBOipTN9U2

{"NO": 882.6474812432003, "YES": 3149.4546882852483}

0.01000000000000001

will-phil-murphy-win-the-2024-presi

5130.525309419512

Will Phil Murphy WIN the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1663098592149

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if Phil Murphy wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to win the presidential election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if Phil Murphy does not ...

BINARY

{"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": 1.734723475976807e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5931087638890055, "platformFee": 0.5931087638890055, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1714658171593

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

1

14

0

7

[{"name": "Best Dem Pres Cand", "slug": "best-dem-pres-cand", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "gFhjgFVrnYeFYfxhoLNn", "createdTime": 1663098592620}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8...

["best-dem-pres-cand", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

0.5

1714658168331

False

0.028595874554337503

KZaCsKhOlq2qlwiNCBdD

{"NO": 896.9510671132495, "YES": 2614.0108456853036}

0.010000000000000021

will-phil-murphy-lose-the-2024-pres

2748.84614102239

Will Phil Murphy LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1663098649581

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if Phil Murphy wins the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination AND goes on to lose the presidential election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO if Phil Murphy does not...

BINARY

{"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": 6.938893903907228e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.2859507920581069, "platformFee": 0.2859507920581069, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1714658206941

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

13

0

8

[{"name": "Best Dem Pres Cand", "slug": "best-dem-pres-cand", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "gFhjgFVrnYeFYfxhoLNn", "createdTime": 1663098649956}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8...

["best-dem-pres-cand", "2024-us-presidential-election", "ancient-markets"]

0.5

1714658203709

0.5000000000000003

eBuljtDFa2dR7bXSaYyY

{"NO": 180.86906735841671, "YES": 55.288613725107865}

0.8828819049998092

what-will-my-reported-profit-be-on

118.73964574180756

What will my reported profit be on 2022-10-01?

1664553599000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.850494227603283

True

play

MKT

public

1663099416258

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- If the current time is past 2022-09-30 11:59:59", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664604205925

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1664552619255

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

5

0

1

5

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663099517081}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1663099502473}, {"name": "Fun...

["fun", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1664552619002

0.8828819049998092

0.4999999999999998

WzRgPGrCwsTpSxfEIZBy

{"NO": 538.5164807134514, "YES": 18.569533817705263}

0.9666666666666666

what-will-my-reported-profit-be-on-dffd20c6385d

438.5164807134514

What will my reported profit be on 2022-11-01?

1666839569538

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

4.032936989440635

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663099417300

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- If the current time is past 2022-10-31 11:59:59", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666839569538

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1665454084064

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

0

2

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663099562563}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1663099558134}, {"name": "Fun...

["fun", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1665454083886

0.5000000000000001

TLK8k0j5xVovTgsHoazs

{"NO": 810, "YES": 12.345679012345727}

0.9849872391532802

what-will-my-reported-profit-be-on-89ccf8d51e26

710

What will my reported profit be on 2022-12-01?

1666839534197

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

4.6493695307344245

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663099418347

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- If the current time is past 2022-11-30 11:59:59", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666839534197

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1666839209475

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

0

1

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663099577752}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1663099574231}, {"name": "Fun...

["fun", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1666839209312

0.4999999999999999

Q08N9Wffy4gTVbyz0MVB

{"NO": 245, "YES": 40.81632653061225}

0.8571938593359514

what-will-my-reported-profit-be-on-a077a7c2c7d4

145

What will my reported profit be on 2023-01-01?

1666839552114

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.1613208750598027

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663099419338

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- If the current time is past 2022-12-31 11:59:59", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666839552114

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1665454041313

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

0

1

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663099592693}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1663099589392}, {"name": "Fun...

["fun", "olivia", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1665454041117

vcaQQ2i5BJX4emq4Atan

what-sorts-of-derivative-markets-wo

318.6294794156446

What sorts of derivative markets would be most useful?

1663819140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.72865429631732

True

play

MKT

public

1663100415157

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to fibonnaci-weights in order of popularity. So if there are 7, the top answer will get 13, the next highest 8, and so on", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 202...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663882835756

839.9999999999998

LivInTheLookingGlass

1664241507133

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "3e1f29fc0774", "prob": 0.05796003757714279, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.894548397158846, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.53933388713459, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vcaQQ2i5BJX4emq4Atan", "createdTime": 1663100415452, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

6

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663100490870}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1663100495856}]

["manifold-6748e065087e", "olivia"]

1663787448160

1664241505983

{"0af3b01d1e60": 5.574162679425837, "1bf4036ee3d7": 0.31100478468899523, "1cb7a4a2a6b2": 0.07177033492822966, "31803ebe2693": 0.5023923444976076, "31b9817a2762": 2.129186602870813, "379bee19a385": 0.19138755980861244, "388cfa25018f": 38.20574162679426, "41f834386f21": 1.3157894736842104, "6c4fb48c7738": 0.8133971291866...

True

0.5995441162004723

xJMhW9EEyhHShyRXTp3G

{"NO": 2356.917436988864, "YES": 4385.0935317849035}

0.44589013084153933

will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up-2

807765.1220373655

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

1735689540000

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

cpmm-1

0.2724090193580478

2.4567250491030292

False

basic

public

1663100733635

GeorgeVii

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same as this market but closes and resolves end of 2024", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://m...

BINARY

{"day": -0.002736211218533624, "week": 0.009565844807424506, "month": 0.12416549515551556}

0

{"creatorFee": 872.5149775524538, "platformFee": 290.5373195585244, "liquidityFee": 0}

20

3595

GeorgeVii

1720166929333

5

https://firebasestorage.…895-af217c099daa

9

566

5

29

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1666267191263}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "Sm05hrytqbPTlgiuajo7BWgUSlm1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1666267195201}]

["ai", "technical-ai-timelines"]

0.22237459495740783

0.5

1720166926163

1720110989170

0.4850107629335325

i3de5CE4h6u8UPxkWhXF

{"NO": 125.23047440906703, "YES": 13205.484569255925}

0

will-russia-launch-a-military-attac

76628.254147642

Will Russia launch a military attack against a NATO member by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.2248662237375587

True

basic

NO

public

1663101160813

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russia launched a multifocal military attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The scale of the combat, as well as Russian rhetoric, leaves the possibility of additional military actions in the region.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672667782373

1660

Predictor

1672545024771

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

419

0

1

319

[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1663101161234}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663103998012}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "s...

["russia", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1672545024651

1669230058935

False

0.01

0.2472497901346911

xJgUyOblHtiNf7NnyTer

{"NO": 850.7503647518917, "YES": 1532.405189364268}

0.15422909716793073

will-the-first-successful-implant-o

727.8900114955428

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

1767243540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

9.67046129343867

False

basic

public

1663101313289

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Harvard University scientists have developed a new technique using 3D printing capable of printing blood vessels on living tissue. The technique, called Sacrificial Writing Into Functional Tissue (SWIFT), promises to facilitate organ laboratory dev...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.0635932746243005}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.649609212946747, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1718300483788

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

16

0

7

[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1663101313799}]

["medicine"]

0.5

1718300480659

1718147323066

0.13936812558129277

qpWtEpQIC6MDCQLZohKD

{"NO": 660.5826970122184, "YES": 6756.4123264842165}

0.01558600672134856

will-the-next-james-bond-after-no-t

13061.292451305839

Will the next James Bond (after "No Time To Die") be played by a woman?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.493917840290091

False

basic

public

1663101482940

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Daniel Craig saying goodbye to his role as James Bond, many fans of 007 are asking for changes for the franchise, so it can stay relevant in current times. One of such changes might have to do with who plays the British secret agent in future ...

BINARY

{"day": 1.734723475976807e-18, "week": 1.734723475976807e-18, "month": 1.734723475976807e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1713021128072

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

62

0

1

29

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1663101483406}, {"name": "James Bond", "slug": "james-bond", "groupId": "37940368-8d43-445a-960b-e1e2bc4c1d0a", "createdTime": 1699146720941}, {"name": "🎆 New ...

["entertainment", "james-bond", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1713021124446

1701236164403

0.9266319306421333

fFwsbc64FJERb8dw7Rp1

{"NO": 5828.197922068607, "YES": 770.7487459233084}

1

will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-finish-his

6430.35889093131

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy finish his presidential term?

1716263940000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

True

basic

YES

public

1663101601302

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in office as President of Ukraine through his entire presidential term - set to end in 2024 - this market will resolve to “Yes”.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.0216972925924035, "platformFee": 1.0216972925924035, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1716306402486

1000

Predictor

1716263940000

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

37

0

2

https://firebasestorage.…4dc-fd427c0ab513

18

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1663101601773}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222452}]

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1716259914006

1711649396662

False

0.99

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

0.14132429883512976

XkAKYYK8J33A3tDmEvbY

{"NO": 465.7084352131242, "YES": 51459.10929731984}

0

will-amazon-begin-to-accept-bitcoin

56710.14487496352

Will Amazon begin to accept Bitcoin as payment by the end of 2023?

1704083702196

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

0.16038975269861933

True

play

NO

public

1663101767530

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bitcoin prices surged following speculation that Amazon might begin to allow customers use cryptocurrencies to pay for their orders in the future. The rumors had emerged after the company published a job post for “Digital Currency and Blockchain Pr...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704083702196

955

Predictor

1704083703123

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

63

0

51

[{"name": "Futuur", "slug": "futuur", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "xHXI3QN7xUV2FwEtKxm8", "createdTime": 1672836713148}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1663101768028}, {"name": ...

["crypto-speculation", "futuur", "bitcoin", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11540475899278295

0.5

1704083697250

1672836708688

0

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

0.0893835856519251

YIHTE2etptFyfgWkv9FB

{"NO": 357.08747816759205, "YES": 24095.445056224606}

0

will-the-supreme-court-reverse-the

35111.82008327816

Will the Supreme Court reverse the legality of same-sex marriage by the end of May 2023?

1685591940000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.522507854874605

True

play

NO

public

1663101945318

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Supreme Court of the United States struck down states’ same-sex marriage bans in 2015, with the opinion that matrimony is a fundamental right guaranteed to that segment of society in the Obergefell v. Hodges case decision. Nonetheless, justice ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1685627659461

580

Predictor

1685579442469

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

36

0

1

24

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1663101945978}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330741}, {"name": "Supreme C...

["us-politics", "scotus", "supreme-court"]

0.5

1685579442290

1663102209631

0

0.888203443150264

i00CrC0a1RSndlR8hPAm

{"NO": 3449.221632042775, "YES": 507.17731042639406}

1

will-elon-musk-still-be-teslas-ceo

4008.396586587024

Will Elon Musk still be Tesla's CEO through the end of 2022?

1672549140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.6418883956800427

True

play

YES

public

1663102057284

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Tesla through December 31st, 2022, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason,...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672610615285

680

Predictor

1672548523248

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

49

0

1

45

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1663102057736}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181977495}]

["technology-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1672548523150

False

0.98

0.5000000000000002

m9LprZS8dXx1xk29p2uS

{"NO": 377.8947368421052, "YES": 26.46239554317546}

1

starting-wednesday-will-i-do-at-lea

450

Starting Wednesday, will I do at least one pomodoro of work on four of the next five days?

1663438752174

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.5979902319877564

True

play

YES

public

1663102067918

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least one pomodoro on at least four days across Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 14, 8:06pm: Wednesday pomodoro complete.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "para...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663438752174

100

Charlie

1663381259177

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

5

0

5

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663102068464}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1663381258929

1663102280543

0.9345568720722812

0.10669567451635581

Wt5b7Ji3DFt68kZAhl6s

{"NO": 169.76966283360161, "YES": 49276.82258287724}

0

will-poland-leave-the-european-unio

49260.03812840964

Will Poland leave the European Union by the end of 2023?

1704083731893

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.024132935044545122

1.8382164953194513

True

play

NO

public

1663102209087

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court, whose majority of judges are loyal to the sitting government's party (Law and Justice Party, or PiS), rejected the European Union's primacy over national legislation. The decision is a direct challe...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704083731893

380

Predictor

1704083732535

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

23

0

10

[{"name": "Poland", "slug": "poland", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA", "createdTime": 1663102209501}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703133007967}]

["poland", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.12673024501096086

0.5

1704083727450

1663103200081

0

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

0.057770164094962724

62radchO7O3shl2Y89xY

{"NO": 924.9665904606891, "YES": 1130.334832290146}

0.04777547851298097

will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-g

2924.6526525956656

Will any US Supreme Court Justice go through a formal impeachment process by the end of 2024?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1663102359321

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though US Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh had testified under oath during their confirmation hearing that they believed Roe v. Wade settled legal precedent, they both voted to reverse the ruling in June 2022. Some lawmakers interp...

BINARY

{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 0.021451043767019683, "month": 0.021451043767019735}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.167742218388369, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1719955482309

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

2

21

3

11

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1663102359851}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330755}]

["us-politics", "scotus"]

0.5

1719955479141

1702944118960

0.5

clzeeX6eAs7nBsX9qj50

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-another-pandemic-befo

0

Will there be another pandemic before 2025?

1663102636648

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663102570630

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "COVID-19 is the greatest pandemic of this century thus far, but not the only one in human history. Outbreaks of bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, and Spanish flu have already plagued humanity. In recent decades, scientists have warned of the need ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663102636648

100

Predictor

1710206869786

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

1

[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}]

["health"]

0.5

0.14893869670432203

i5ewGmfvRfFKq5j7mWtc

{"NO": 917.9285644880531, "YES": 1290.1642210153375}

0.11072522449870767

will-there-be-another-pandemic-befo-6001af28e5ae

1141.479226820523

Will there be another pandemic before 2025?

1735707540000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.07621462052388855

9.889153341979744

False

basic

public

1663102675521

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "COVID-19 is the greatest pandemic of this century thus far, but not the only one in human history. Outbreaks of bubonic plague, smallpox, cholera, and Spanish flu have already plagued humanity. In recent decades, scientists have warned of the need ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.00625811052458565, "month": -0.006258110524585719}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.5286125806917394, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1720086072959

1.3

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

28

1

12

[{"name": "🫀 Health", "slug": "health", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35"}]

["health"]

0.1281546077280013

0.5

1720086068885

1663215570878

0.19159124206575504

NIyK3PJZ8nVdiXSRogMc

{"NO": 826.0127113324786, "YES": 1715.1515540986213}

0.10244482561720734

will-nasas-mission-artemis-iii-find

1243.6671200695284

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

1740805140000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0.00012771344350222697

9.838232197889926

False

basic

public

1663102947326

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NASA's Artemis lunar exploration program has several goals to achieve while the astronauts are on the Moon during the Artemis 3 mission. One of them is to find and use water, needed for long-term explorations.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragra...

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.769896245642054, "platformFee": 2.769896245642054, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Predictor

1713983736839

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

27

0

13

[{"name": "Artemis 3", "slug": "artemis-3", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "JFSueHSoflV6QCBPjC3l", "createdTime": 1670453312786}, {"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1663102947970}, {"nam...

["artemis-program", "artemis-3", "space"]

0.10894645325455121

0.5

1713983733384

1709280431955

0.5960221072781684

tEALKWDtRSky2UXYGnRg

{"NO": 265.37210963072937, "YES": 188.56379117197523}

1

will-jennifer-face-matt-murdock-in

265

Will Jennifer face Matt Murdock in court in "She-Hulk"?

1663873200000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

1.5897547146150064

True

play

YES

public

1663103038943

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "streaming service.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Jennifer represents any client in court at any point in season 1 and the attorney on the other side is Matt Murdock, this market will reso...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665656368688

220

Predictor

1663816359675

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

13

0

1

14

[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1663103039354}]

["entertainment"]

0.5

1663816359600

1663278448828

0.6749400549079548

0.3755786781255582

UWo4AxtUOh49Us6AITkW

{"NO": 1091.7191774968092, "YES": 13.401026440188105}

1

will-tesla-sell-its-first-semi-in-2

16715.781856075933

Will Tesla sell its first Semi in 2022?

1665656465100

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

3.653480553035923

True

play

YES

public

1663103160467

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla’s earnings call for the fourth quarter of 2020 included the statement that the engineering works for the company’s semi-truck model, Tesla Semi, were complete but the production of the vehicle was limited by the availability of battery cells....

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665656465100

220

Predictor

1665664586138

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

0

37

0

35

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1663103160962}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1665656445815

1665664554255

0.9013167463457757

0.5854228749911277

F4yzu8rU0XpNHxta3p00

{"NO": 2625.560652688168, "YES": 478.9437578471518}

0.8855977388327666

will-villeneuves-dune-part-2-receiv

5424.069424223806

Will Villeneuve's DUNE part 2 receive a higher IMDB rating than DUNE part 1 by end of 2026?

1798761540000

lu8tOTybSbZXFrhhjgKbdcOThl43

cpmm-1

0.02214761893749877

10.019451535401227

False

basic

public

1663103212902

Garreth Byrne

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if DUNE part 2 has a higher IMDB rating than DUNE part 1 by 31-DEC-2026. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Curre...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9763365107804156, "platformFee": 0.15866194345400406, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

GarrethByrne

1717437487841

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnXoY8KcIQCUBWX0Vk8XCkVeF3GbnYG7diS6P_W=s96-c

0

85

0

34

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1663123710597}, {"name": "Cinema", "slug": "cinema", "userId": "lu8tOTybSbZXFrhhjgKbdcOThl43", "groupId": "cwf259E8FrbeHwytqDqP", "createdTime": 1663103213461}, {"name": "Entertain...

["cinema", "culture-default", "entertainment", "dune", "imdb", "movies"]

0.12702041853073048

0.5

1717437484411

1709406635012

0.6153869497121263

26eSgKCewmAZVG8CzJUl

{"NO": 414.58358003792966, "YES": 100.60887053738193}

0.8683042297377702

by-the-end-of-2022-manifold-user-wi

297.4805060980417

By the end of 2022 Manifold user will be able to check on the website why their balance changed

1663277313603

T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2

cpmm-1

0

2.145448404775906

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663104492236

Account deletion requested

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Balance against randomly changed on my account, have no idea why and from what I see - have no place to see it (maybe it was triggered by selling my share on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Yusef/will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663277313603

180

Accountdeletionrequested

1663277330196

0

https://firebasestorage.…c0b-dc1cbf834db0

10

0

11

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663104493008}, {"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "T56OasXEL8YjfgJaUS1Ayego21Q2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 16...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]

0.5

1663276920635

1663277321090

0.6926939983839473

0.43499384229500776

4cPs3nYG2yhl4PrAbcEw

{"NO": 952.4186798238728, "YES": 7.4066639101286}

1

will-russia-declare-a-partial-or-fu

4449.494691442883

Will Russia declare a partial or full mobilisation during 2022?

1663823818510

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

4.733120281767074

True

play

YES

public

1663104949859

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663823818510

120

Keepcalmandchill

1663822853630

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

21

0

18

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663681632026}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1663681627142}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": ...

["ukraine", "global-macro", "russia", "wars", "world-default", "russian-mobilization", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1663822853476

1663803095298

False

0.99

0.4832965469151546

XW8enw6vuUHo4c6VYFkq

{"NO": 72.49855843519983, "YES": 204.4837212380696}

0.2

will-spindle-make-a-bet-of-m500-on

2159.932743457429

Will @Spindle make a bet of >=M$500 on any market that ends with "[Resolves to MKT]"? [Resolves to MKT]

1664540400000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

1.8742782678901728

True

play

MKT

public

1663111160563

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to MKT (meaning resolves to whatever the market probability is at the time of close).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market close time will be quasi-randomly extended if there is...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664545838281

120

Jenny

1664577789155

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

9

0

1

9

[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1663251457728}, {"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1663111255901}...

["fun", "whale-watching", "selfresolving", "marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1664500945053

1664577784528

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