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Will William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?

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Which fast food regular menu item will I like the most?

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1666094106786

1666184508683

0.6637161123320863

0.5000000000000004

Omr7JkTCzthjRH9R6dea

{"NO": 321.47416048350567, "YES": 31.10669916661338}

1

starting-monday-will-i-do-at-least

276.39252783044435

Starting Monday, will I do at least one pomodoro of work on five of the next six days?

1664061862467

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

3.4188591780065436

True

play

YES

public

1663468171386

Charlie

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least one pomodoro on at least five days across Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 19, 11:34am: did one Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph",...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664061862467

100

Charlie

1664051509077

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c

4

0

4

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1663468171832}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1664051508893

0.9117742829333337

0.6190877471824946

WmgT8leT6LI8FCWzOzgK

{"NO": 4704.399442386349, "YES": 21.818348943407052}

1

conditional-on-this-market-having-a

10179.751047979802

Conditional on this market having at least 10 unique traders, will it have at least 20?

1663994612496

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

3.716219171731998

True

play

YES

public

1663468191321

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if there are at least 20 unique traders.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO if there are between 10 and 19 unique traders.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663994612496

200

Jenny

1664040573059

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

24

0

24

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663468191798}]

["fun"]

0.5

1663994610153

1664040570351

0.41029438334681795

0.4291683755078961

rJco78s0kUflOzCb0ZFr

{"NO": 237.47014572089267, "YES": 118.82583653124159}

0.6004014480623602

resolves-to-mkt

1034.2207742574922

[Resolves to MKT]

1664229132539

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-1

0

1.0656701645903914

True

play

MKT

public

1663472688056

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the current probability of the market one week from now, plus a random number of hours (< 100) to avoid last-minute market moves.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664229132539

180

a

1664204045502

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

9

0

9

[{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1663472688574}]

["metaforecasting"]

0.5

1664204045334

1663538268861

0.6004014480623602

0.5449662136848077

x9lX6rXxSRPOcW92CcUM

{"NO": 492.99905833403614, "YES": 112.46379133466924}

1

will-my-partner-place-at-least-5-be

1712.1441091573593

Will my partner place at least 5 bets before the end of September?

1664374930838

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.7369002353732172

True

play

YES

public

1663475355293

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Finally convinced my partner ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "qznjQbyd1FfTyrkOuOMduFN4g4p1", "label": "AnnaliseNorling"}}, {"text": " to join Manifold tonight when I told her she could read applications, make comments and ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664374930838

287.46196912958965

BTE

1664374911286

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

18

0

16

[{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1663475355745}]

["predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1664374911113

1664372085181

0.2916381740534705

0.4915248552968711

SXTTccvfYmlLgdyih6jO

{"NO": 38.16460155703862, "YES": 1120.4998246925911}

0

will-mbs-attend-the-queens-funeral

1451.2441725359242

Will MBS attend the Queen's funeral?

1663592796685

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.7855625213956268

True

play

NO

public

1663477096810

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if MBS attends the funeral, NO if not. British officials as of tonight said they were uncertain whether he would attend or not, but he has been invited. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663592796685

505.15413107868017

BTE

1663592782775

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

8

0

5

[{"name": "Royal Funeral", "slug": "royal-funeral", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "Y9xojSRQaUbF8czkpJK5", "createdTime": 1663477097225}, {"name": "MBS", "slug": "mbs", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "44tFNTiGdasU0INGAQhf", "createdTime": 1669114644170}]

["royal-funeral", "mbs"]

0.5

1663592780845

1663516507116

0.10772399581054168

0.2905685650399594

gp2Rc1wkMiaTp1jiHJg8

{"NO": 143.25137267378568, "YES": 3417.0910791395554}

0

will-the-supreme-leader-of-iran-ali

7198.310781346727

Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

1.8629289506231017

True

play

NO

public

1663493287253

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672538310487

400

Keepcalmandchill

1672136840169

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

54

0

1

47

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1663493287721}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525585}]

["world-default", "iran"]

0.5

1672136839952

1672046527533

0.02

0.5833648965987424

csBOmU4UOhfImXYy3Ey2

{"NO": 275, "YES": 59.21568627450982}

1

will-the-supposedly-leaked-gta-6-fo

155

Will the supposedly leaked GTA 6 footage from Sept. 18, 2022 be confirmed as genuine?

1663751522615

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

0

2.90562120141505

True

play

YES

public

1663494367444

Tasties

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves \"yes\" if employees of Rockstar or any of it's affiliated publishers can confirm the leaks' authenticity. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 18, 2:46am: Some sample footage is available on this ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663751522615

120

Tasties

1663636843482

0

https://firebasestorage.…dea-1f7c32f6892d

3

0

3

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1663494367905}]

["gaming"]

0.5

1663636843362

0.8667110963012328

0.2569605181931061

MkSIacfBrlpBD0uiZ1Zs

{"NO": 339.92726654655905, "YES": 4759.486677959316}

0

will-israel-launch-air-strikes-agai

7810.657664198396

Will Israel launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities by 2024?

1704027540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0.010725698861155725

1.0259026283988941

True

play

NO

public

1663494405611

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704098166414

720

Keepcalmandchill

1704098166871

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

1

39

0

1

15

[{"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670787848343}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525589}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-...

["world-default", "iran", "israel", "nathans-dashboard", "asia", "-israeli-nuclear", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1295542059897422

0.5

1704001093164

0.02

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

0.3852629885312808

bQuYrPs7SzwFjtfh1zCP

{"NO": 137.46525567958045, "YES": 96.33545886697667}

0.1875

taco-tuesday-913-how-many-people-wi-0fe884016d52

96.32168040902856

Taco Tuesday 9/20: How many people will come?

1663740068711

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

2.5771009701725074

True

play

MKT

public

1663496009626

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Join us for Taco Tuesday! We'll start cooking at 6:30pm, eating at 7pm. Drinks, desserts, and especially new friends are always welcome~", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Special this week: ", "...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663740068711

120

Austin

1663725644399

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

4

0

5

[{"name": "SF Events", "slug": "sf-events", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "qSQNlQOaDWJhZJESqY12", "createdTime": 1663496010188}]

["sf-events"]

0.375

1663725298268

1663725641732

0.1875

0.45942965952259573

UzS9G1IgkHqrV0QE50rC

{"NO": 52.68293466809246, "YES": 1848.7766235613772}

0

will-ukraine-regain-control-over-al

3522.55946264706

Will Ukraine regain control over all of Svatove by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

2.4135196497198512

True

play

NO

public

1663499450152

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Ukraine controls all of Svatove at any time in 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Map below taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672606756667

280

AndyMartin

1672411929130

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

21

0

1

17

[{"name": "Ukraine Counteroffensive", "slug": "ukraine-counteroffensive", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "2i6fbccCzqrKyYbLXRrG", "createdTime": 1663499450709}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223508}]

["ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1672411928904

1664410884101

False

0.02

0.5599084831984836

ZbBQxVwVydRICVluArw1

{"NO": 39.008916081013616, "YES": 932.58042521848}

0

will-elon-musk-release-a-tweet-cont

3010.850107667957

Will Elon Musk release a tweet containing the word “king” or “queen” today or tomorrow?

1663654622641

MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2

cpmm-1

0

2.5010171912979695

True

play

NO

public

1663506736618

Heaffey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any tweet from the official Elon musk twitter account. Photos of memes containing either word also counts. Today or tomorrow only. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1663654622641

280

Heaffey

1663651426729

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpUsV_FsERh3qn-8uHd-1Z847JkXZrYBJlPNZ0Rzg=s96-c

13

0

12

[{"name": "Tesla", "slug": "tesla", "userId": "MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2", "groupId": "aWXHajzqi5AtOZ3rZmcV", "createdTime": 1663506763949}, {"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1663506760834}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "...

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "spacex", "tesla", "royal-funeral"]

0.5

1663651425577

1663642842125

0.05052818685395315

0.43124948721373646

vi8DLnMOJLQ40SL8zdIb

{"NO": 389.8533128958479, "YES": 78.57786470607437}

0.79

inverse-market-for-ukrainian-forces

3668.0001262852193

Inverse market for "Ukrainian Forces Will Have Captured Moscow by Jan 1st, 2023"

1664578602426

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-1

0

1.0593401074587345

True

play

CANCEL

public

1663511876524

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Spindle/ukrainian-forces-will-have-captured", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will be resolved opposite of how the th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664578602426

239.99999999999997

AlexLiesman

1664580317032

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

16

0

14

[{"name": "Sketchy", "slug": "sketchy", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "ogYLa7siMYNMIdDkNaHk", "createdTime": 1663636940965}]

["sketchy"]

0.5

1664577925275

1664580312310

0.79

0.27544653372142347

WGv6PbyLKpxPwsdLOij9

{"NO": 63.20293993438341, "YES": 622.9048731887136}

0

will-20-or-more-people-attend-the-a

2804.611768542954

Will 20 or more people attend the ACX meetup in Freiburg, Germany on Oct 14th 2022?

1665759600000

4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2

cpmm-1

0

3.6495045312770507

True

play

NO

public

1663512883209

Omar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The generic ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Rationality", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " meetups started in May 2022 and so far 3 - 11 people (avg 7) attended every time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665782792756

210

Omar

1665782804609

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9OmoWVfNSAaxF2g8luaugezhLtwrB-rZDZNKIz=s96-c

0

11

0

1

11

[{"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1663512883729}, {"name": "Rationality Freiburg", "slug": "rationality-freiburg", "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "groupId": "UGUDRy8jivfChIjNrWo1", "createdTime": 1664621827142}]

["acx", "rationality-freiburg"]

0.5

1665721109187

1665782802063

0.03714030224785649

0.220937330044642

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{"NO": 385.51649242942835, "YES": 5340.832368306713}

0.020059967323675022

will-trump-lose-the-republican-prim

11192.795180350065

Will Trump lose the Republican primary?

1725166740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

10.53585866329361

False

basic

public

1663515059462

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A if never announces ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://m...

BINARY

{"day": -3.469446951953614e-18, "week": -3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 7.690130976614057e-05}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.9999734632770456, "platformFee": 1.9770827468371515, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1719451114011

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

0

48

1

21

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1663548462114}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1663515060055}, {"name": "US...

["politics-default", "magaland", "us-politics", "2024-gop-primaries", "donald-trump"]

0.1209029360003374

0.5

1719451110802

1686280906018

False

0.23595418977169397

mfON3jpmL8xQXHFt9MXd

{"NO": 265.1963609734092, "YES": 5938.41938107366}

0

will-vladimir-putin-die-in-any-way

57091.817722699074

Will Vladimir Putin die in any way by 2024?

1704085140000

JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2

cpmm-1

0

1.3088065785051923

True

play

NO

public

1663521745731

Ibozz91

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704088285221

600

Ibozz91

1704088286707

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c

2

209

0

1

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