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Austin
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0.5
0.4559318500037251
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will-the-2024-election-be-a-bidentr
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Will Biden and Trump be the next presidential nominees of their parties?
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uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0.06158632660245903
5.851595785580901
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basic
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Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024. If either party initially nominated another person this resolves NO. Only the first nomination matters, replacements don'...
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BoltonBailey
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Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
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cpmm-1
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1663872288316
Nathan Young
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cpmm-1
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play
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Quinn
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https://firebasestorage.…21d-973557914f65
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xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
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Gavriel
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cpmm-1
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play
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Gavriel
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Which skill listed in The Order of The Stick #1268 will end up saving the day?
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cpmm-multi-1
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10.586609649448985
False
play
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1663882758724
DAL59
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will-qualy-announce-their-identity
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Will Qualy announce their identity with a microphone at EAG DC?
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cpmm-1
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0.9665674978325312
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NO
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1663882852685
David Chee
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Which talk from EAG DC uploaded to youtube will receive the most views?
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David Chee
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1672608163889
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SirSalty
1672608182489
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https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
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will-vladimir-putin-be-named-time-m
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Will Vladimir Putin be named Time Magazine's Person of the Year 2022?
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If I take a week to refactor my market manager code instead of adding features, will I regret it?
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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
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LivInTheLookingGlass
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Will the Fed hike at every meeting through March 2023?
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cpmm-1
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0.5816647066847307
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YES
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Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $7.00 on September 23, 2022?
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cpmm-1
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3.6483997076443186
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NO
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1663885183865
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Across, 2025 will a majority of EA funding rounds have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met?
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cpmm-1
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1663889371820
Nathan Young
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1000
NathanpmYoung
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Help me edit this question to be a good question about Pakistan: Will the monsoons end a month early?
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2.7725887222397816
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Nathan Young
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1674318793037
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NathanpmYoung
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What percentage of the vote will Dr. Oz get, in the range 35-55%? README: resolves PROB equal to (Dr. Oz vote % minus 35%) X 5.
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cpmm-1
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Will the Republican nominee be either Trump or DeSantis?
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cpmm-1
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which-clippy-badge-exudes-the-most
311
Which clippy badge exudes the most threatening aura?
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4.729793550667042
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d23a30a7f4da
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Cedar
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will-at-least-one-eag-dc-event-expe
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Will at least one EAG DC event experience disruption due to unattended bags?
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B2KphyTNTZSqJ1M4TAzh63G9Ku43
cpmm-1
0
3.7680345534304758
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play
NO
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MirandaZ
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Will Tucker Carlson run for President by 2032?
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cpmm-1
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will-there-be-a-big-story-in-a-sign
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Will there be a big story in a significant media outlet denouncing AI-generated porn that attracts significant public discussion by the end of 2023?
1681222882002
H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1
cpmm-1
0
0.5672200176517979
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YES
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1663910257155
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when-will-voyager-2-stop-transmitti
54
When will Voyager 2 stop transmitting any scientific data?
2074744740000
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cpmm-multi-1
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10.586609649448985
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1663910802096
Stochastic Cockatoo
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currently-there-are-2022-digidaigak
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Currently, there are 2,022 DigiDaigaku Spirit NFTs. How many will be left (unburned) by the end of Monday 3 October (PT)?
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cpmm-multi-1
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4.837765190619555
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gamestx
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Will an African Country reach the 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarter-finals?
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cpmm-1
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3.4293980718644677
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play
YES
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Mr Stone
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Order of magnitude estimate: How much should an EA billionaire pay for there to be prediction markets on X-risk topics?
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Nathan Young
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Will LessWrong change their Petrov Day 2022 plan and reduce the chance of the button being pressed?
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How good will the AUROC be at the end of the Moral Uncertainty Research Competition?
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What Brier score will the best model achieve in the $125k Autocast warmup competition?
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