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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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0.5000000000000002 | KNzFrNJ18ud828u23T7X | {"NO": 25.126907605007418, "YES": 397.97973380564804} | 0 | will-manifolk-go-climbing-more-than | 940.914454928347 | Will Manifolk go climbing twice or more while in DC? | 1664470181845 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.0958586279015154 | True | play | NO | public | 1663869207721 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 1:54pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Manifolk go climbing more than twice while in DC?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will Manifolk go climbing twice or more while in DC?", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664470181845 | 100 | SG | 1664401229695 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 | [{"name": "Washifold", "slug": "washifold", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "LHPEN470d1jPLU7YIzv5", "createdTime": 1663869208117}] | ["washifold"] | 0.5 | 1664401229613 | 0.05938670100103667 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.11938414736203583 | KwMnAanGz2KMiOYIqEdd | {"NO": 251.62281461181456, "YES": 1608.279449174169} | 0 | will-there-be-an-ea-global-conferen | 2173.572052403534 | Will there be an EA Global conference open to the public in the next year? | 1696046340000 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8714499841788177 | True | play | NO | public | 1663869429471 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 3:47pm: EAGx conferences will not be included when judging the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697353718821 | 360 | JamesGrugett | 1695982489755 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 21 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1663869429969}, {"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 16639383051... | ["effective-altruism", "eag-dc-2022"] | 0.5 | 1695982489444 | 1664998846382 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8781747233320053 | mCMW0U8JoAvx3W8RTqhF | {"NO": 685.7105383007088, "YES": 209.74190826103236} | 1 | will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle-7f94524962ef | 4116.502489555097 | Will Manifold Markets add non-google sign ups in 2022? | 1670889187638 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.21624122111118 | True | play | YES | public | 1663869651104 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Older market: <", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/hamnox/will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/hamnox/will-manifold-markets-add-nongoogle", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670889187638 | 340 | Jenny | 1670889255750 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 27 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1663869651542}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 16... | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1670885276791 | 1670889247398 | 0.96 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | l94PTlxgGX9wNG1W0XKS | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0 | has-fede-visited-china-before | 200 | Has Fede visited China before? | 1663870401615 | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | NO | public | 1663870311391 | Austin | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1663870401615 | 100 | Austin | 1663870332014 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1663870331498 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4559318500037251 | BOoIX7lszJoPnLyqfjoH | {"NO": 1785.5979464588243, "YES": 1714.7580836958955} | 0.4659901378887236 | will-the-2024-election-be-a-bidentr | 120967.9711127127 | Will Biden and Trump be the next presidential nominees of their parties? | 1727679540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0.06158632660245903 | 5.851595785580901 | False | basic | public | 1663870939484 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic Nominee and Donald Trump (Sr.) is the Republican Nominee for US President in 2024. If either party initially nominated another person this resolves NO. Only the first nomination matters, replacements don'... | BINARY | {"day": 0.06599013788872371, "week": -0.2840098621112766, "month": -0.4657638305818565} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 159.1543996063555, "platformFee": 8.240034385327244, "liquidityFee": 0} | 215.56208074958437 | 1900 | BoltonBailey | 1720215719819 | 6.2 | 9 | 237 | 4 | 43 | [{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub... | ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland"] | 0.22168997010659033 | 0.5 | 1720215715820 | 1713861564995 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.25675861112438914 | 9zrCknNLXqWPnHhixclQ | {"NO": 949.0146329505216, "YES": 1097.4116836265616} | 0.2300250187542145 | across-2025-a-majority-of-ea-fundin | 739.0576286523244 | Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met. | 1798761540000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.610323118174747 | False | basic | public | 1663872288316 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The aim of this question is to predict whether things like the clearer thinking regranting tournament will become normal. ie using forecasting to aid grantmaking.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Please hel... | BINARY | {"day": -2.220446049250313e-16, "week": -2.220446049250313e-16, "month": -2.220446049250313e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NathanpmYoung | 1711194492916 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1663872288785}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.5 | 1711194489598 | 1684212614329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000193 | nQPqiXPVOAGdK00viAiz | {"NO": 2702.1384168122872, "YES": 3.7007726687063496} | 1 | the-big-red-button-gets-pushed-on-l | 4262.873073449697 | The big red button gets pushed on lesswrong's petrov day in 2022? | 1664251140000 | TDRPXOtfI7fQ5ANbQJARKhDu5nO2 | cpmm-1 | 5.365983585164024 | True | play | YES | public | 1663875592072 | Quinn | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26", "class": "no-underli... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1676438284821 | 100 | Quinn | 1676438284640 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664311103087}, {"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664311100273}, {"name": "Pleas... | ["petrov-day", "lesswrong", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1664243966066 | 1676438281618 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5253476163123106 | 8c0zHBqGViCSt0XjRHQL | {"NO": 1002.0051026921849, "YES": 996.8503406480256} | 0.526633562776551 | if-a-human-challenge-trial-for-a-he | 112.4018522556697 | If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027? | 1830142740000 | xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.598113358248249 | False | basic | public | 1663876260615 | Gavriel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Completed\" doesn't require the publication of a peer-reviewed article, just notice from a relevant research team. Will resolve NA if a hep C human challenge trial is NOT completed by the end of 2024; see paired question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | GavrielK | 1690777748307 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 8 | [{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1663876261236}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "userId": "RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1664302746526}] | ["science-default", "researchbet"] | 0.5 | 1690777747937 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4859162334292476 | 2gPSxj90jlXt7ytWEoWs | {"NO": 133.1639381047522, "YES": 147.31263822255414} | 0.4607493997014647 | if-a-human-challenge-trial-for-a-he-ba6e58ba26c9 | 34.10831388191346 | If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027? | 1830142740000 | xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1663876350916 | Gavriel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Completed\" doesn't require the publication of a peer-reviewed article, just notice from a relevant research team. Will resolve NA if a hep C human challenge trial IS completed by the end of 2024; see paired question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": 5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 140 | GavrielK | 1683557814986 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1663905648927}, {"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1663905633696}, {"nam... | ["science-default", "health", "effective-altruism", "researchbet"] | 0.5 | 1683557814823 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rTMedGmohtpco0C4JXbJ | which-skill-listed-in-the-order-of | 80 | Which skill listed in The Order of The Stick #1268 will end up saving the day? | 1748836740000 | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1663882758724 | DAL59 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 22, 5:40pm: Only answers submitted by me will be resolved (as MM unfortunately removed multiple choice markets)", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 600 | DAL59 | 1696170733328 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f636e297f14f", "prob": 0.30864197530864196, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 20.0328091380565, "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.87349246924656, "textFts": "", "contractId": "rTMedGmohtpco0C4JXbJ", "createdTime": 1663882759321, "probChanges": {"day": -0.691358024691... | 7 | 7 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1663882759159}] | ["fun"] | 1696170732871 | 1696135771914 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999967 | Ot3QPY3m1aqQBsV3DD3d | {"NO": 247.3393695210262, "YES": 646.8844822797137} | 0 | will-qualy-announce-their-identity | 893.1155177202863 | Will Qualy announce their identity with a microphone at EAG DC? | 1664196521437 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9665674978325312 | True | play | NO | public | 1663882852685 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this market to resolve YES they must actually be someone that posts on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "QualyThe Twitter account", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/QualyThe", "class": "no-underline ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664196521437 | 400 | SirSalty | 1663936002137 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 1663882853085}] | ["eag-dc-2022"] | 0.5 | 1663936001899 | 0.27659670341262677 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
iwXQSU85t3pLeg5w8X7g | which-talk-from-eag-dc-uploaded-to | 157 | Which talk from EAG DC uploaded to youtube will receive the most views? | 1669179540000 | uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.792575883984042 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1663883184438 | David Chee | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will go to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "EAG's youtube channel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/c/EffectiveAltruismVideos", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:u... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672608163889 | 260 | SirSalty | 1672608182489 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "4bf958d94ecb", "prob": 0.15140274644582052, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.084903277688584, "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 62.12977438111675, "textFts": "", "contractId": "iwXQSU85t3pLeg5w8X7g", "createdTime": 1663883185105, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 1663883184915}] | ["eag-dc-2022"] | 1669174396797 | 1672608180597 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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khj1SsIUIX8DiVTbNyBL | currently-there-are-2022-digidaigak | 100 | Currently, there are 2,022 DigiDaigaku Spirit NFTs. How many will be left (unburned) by the end of Monday 3 October (PT)? | 1664319540000 | 4rkN3VM7lYb5dxaFIt24ZAyvkKK2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.837765190619555 | True | play | 76a7694f6cfa | public | 1663915450908 | gamestx | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NFT collection from gaming visionary Gabe Leydon, DigiDaigaku consists of 2,022 Genesis NFTs, and 2,022 matching Spirits NFTs. From today, all Spirit NFTs can be burned (destroyed) to create new hero NFTs. So the question is out of the 2,022 Spirit... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664353742524 | 280 | gamestx | 1664305388175 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhorLbCqRHs025oTo-QJeTQosCczFX9Hwufy2NjwQ=s96-c | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "f338dbb2bdb7", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 25.018511664883786, "userId": "4rkN3VM7lYb5dxaFIt24ZAyvkKK2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 75.05553499465135, "textFts": "", "contractId": "khj1SsIUIX8DiVTbNyBL", "createdTime": 1663915451706, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "... | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "4rkN3VM7lYb5dxaFIt24ZAyvkKK2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1663915451522}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 166406781... | ["technology-default", "crypto-speculation"] | 1664305387992 | {"76a7694f6cfa": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.418069296329587 | P8IWMw6UX0qFOsVCc0pu | {"NO": 4734.323287466857, "YES": 13.328466386372977} | 1 | will-an-african-country-reach-the-2 | 9085.453006403177 | Will an African Country reach the 2022 FIFA World Cup Quarter-finals? | 1670349096605 | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.4293980718644677 | True | play | YES | public | 1663920537517 | Chocobo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670349096605 | 580 | Chocobo | 1670349033622 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 24 | [{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1663920538000}, {"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 16639341282... | ["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"] | 0.5 | 1670349033430 | 1670190943038 | 0.4264529142575318 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7180053613718409 | Ni6B2KdmSRVhkIXO3ydu | {"NO": 465.18289312031857, "YES": 823.0806960026011} | 0 | will-there-be-a-report-button-withi | 30988.711479453632 | Will there be a report button within 2 months? | 1667686216474 | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.6778060143623812 | True | play | NO | public | 1663926680614 | Mr Stone | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve yes if users can report markets via the web interface.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For example this astrology ad:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "pa... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667686216474 | 860 | stone | 1667968167516 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 57 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1663926681229}, {"name": "Improperly Resolved", "slug": "improperly-resolved", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "H4pCAtNjKfKA1dq7NCBl", "createdTime": 16... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "improperly-resolved"] | 0.5 | 1667686145470 | 1667968161846 | 0.59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tjdQZAkDkEjEPYjipnP4 | order-of-magnitude-estimate-how-muc | 110 | Order of magnitude estimate: How much should an EA billionaire pay for there to be prediction markets on X-risk topics? | 1672549140000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.84818841182032 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1663938804482 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unsure how to resolve: Please comment. I think group estimation is an interesting feature of manifold.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674318813681 | 420 | NathanpmYoung | 1671147358141 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "3e2342d18108", "prob": 0.2770083102493075, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 15.431745554879656, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 40.27685589823591, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tjdQZAkDkEjEPYjipnP4", "createdTime": 1663938805090, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 5 | 4 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1663938804919}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 1663948782114 | 1671147355298 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | 1Cm1szSNsTRmjowhbnlX | {"NO": 12.659942500125055, "YES": 789.8930030607324} | 0 | will-lesswrong-change-their-petrov | 1944.1193710835416 | Will LessWrong change their Petrov Day 2022 plan and reduce the chance of the button being pressed? | 1664251140000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.896828478360848 | True | play | NO | public | 1663939027980 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26", "class": "no-underli... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664413830695 | 100 | MartinRandall | 1664413824427 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1663939028486}, {"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664258182164}] | ["petrov-day", "lesswrong"] | 0.5 | 1664247027156 | 1664413824493 | 0.0157745885429126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mb9m8IBUF8LTc9Q3D50w | how-good-will-the-auroc-be-at-the-e | 17 | How good will the AUROC be at the end of the Moral Uncertainty Research Competition? | 1679093940000 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.969665534522167 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1663941970739 | Apart Research | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the challenge ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://moraluncertainty.mlsafety.org/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decorati... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1699431813335 | 360 | apartresearch | 1663947839470 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "31f91da46f1e", "prob": 0.7305135510263715, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.93237248931023, "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.731052211306546, "textFts": "", "contractId": "mb9m8IBUF8LTc9Q3D50w", "createdTime": 1663941971505, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 48 | 2 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1663941971319}] | ["ai"] | 1663947839284 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9rzc6abCNKhA3zQxVOiG | what-brier-score-will-the-best-mode | 48.90480505750989 | What Brier score will the best model achieve in the $125k Autocast warmup competition? | 1676069940000 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.929050871860277 | True | play | e3ab56d0055e | public | 1663944225405 | Apart Research | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the minimum ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Brier score", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.machinelearningplus.com/statistics/brier-score", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678236415041 | 660 | apartresearch | 1676026550614 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "07e27453be6e", "prob": 0.5473723141611774, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 32.30376636136648, "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 26.712310129222015, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9rzc6abCNKhA3zQxVOiG", "createdTime": 1663944226062, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 6 | 4 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1663944225908}] | ["ai"] | 1676026550437 | 1663954292664 | {"e3ab56d0055e": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
eJkm2DufaYU6gwSBGCib | what-auroc-will-the-best-model-for | 18 | What AUROC will the best model for Trojan Detection reach on the Final Round dataset for the NeurIPS Trojan Challenge? | 1667429940000 | pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.967143306058491 | True | play | b32ae6f52c43 | public | 1663947356329 | Apart Research | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current leaderboard shows performance on the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "validation set", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://codalab.lisn.upsaclay.fr/competitions/5951#results", "class": "no-underline !text-... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668299160836 | 380 | apartresearch | 1667433574259 | 0 | 2 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "0ad8ce470ce4", "prob": 0.7181844297615627, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.9901989216318, "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.907354056848325, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eJkm2DufaYU6gwSBGCib", "createdTime": 1663947357271, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 3 | 2 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "pXiyYYCYDqg8LEwRgPP5aqw0sdD3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1663947357012}] | ["ai"] | 1663947863850 | 1667433573683 | {"b32ae6f52c43": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.16795073311857578 | s5iUJ4LfwouwODbF1GEn | {"NO": 74.88352755380953, "YES": 5367.919199092453} | 0 | will-the-pound-cross-the-dollar-bef | 7611.47184147539 | Will the pound cross the dollar before March 2023? | 1677628740000 | MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2 | cpmm-1 | 4.471030874741093 | True | play | NO | public | 1663948611008 | Jonathan Nankivell | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKI-EkNC6yT.png?alt=media&token=6699bc8a-813f-452f-bb07-1a6b78a25b65", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question r... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677671174089 | 220 | JonathanNankivell | 1677628055839 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c | 23 | 0 | 1 | 19 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1663949368017}] | ["global-macro"] | 0.5 | 1677628055703 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | LJK1RM0TuhI696uRu9JN | {"NO": 57.04534373476358, "YES": 175.29914529914532} | 0 | will-qualy-show-up-to-eag-dc-in-ful | 110 | Will Qualy show up to EAG DC in full Quostume? | 1664234553474 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9281050255964285 | True | play | NO | public | 1663949840418 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664234553474 | 100 | Sinclair | 1664028294516 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 1663949841077}] | ["eag-dc-2022"] | 0.5 | 1664028294402 | 1663951466211 | 0.24552053707819282 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000004 | Bk6QWc6c9W14X22OrSrb | {"NO": 893.415603955453, "YES": 11.192999042916426} | 1 | will-the-spanishspeaking-eas-destro | 1107.1615341517138 | Will the Spanish-Speaking EAs destroy the world in Petrov Day? | 1664161371009 | M8TKE99kaKZOcXFb8sr6WaM17oy1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.804152319573732 | True | play | YES | public | 1663949964992 | Jaime Sevilla | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Petrov day (September 26th) a link to the webpage screenshoted below will be shared in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Spanish-Speaking Effective Altruism Slack space", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664161371009 | 100 | JaimeSevilla | 1664162498268 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucohLYFW2FF2X-xgYuOI65j8E11iC7s2FGWyjTGGZQ=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "M8TKE99kaKZOcXFb8sr6WaM17oy1", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1663949965493}] | ["effective-altruism"] | 0.5 | 1664161357674 | 1664162491900 | 0.7890722369599841 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | eoRFUpLhcX6FBPP2aUTW | {"NO": 122.80701754385967, "YES": 81.42857142857147} | 0 | will-i-get-7-oneonones-at-eag-dc | 50 | Will I get 7+ one-on-ones at EAG DC? | 1664152770823 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.793655326066546 | True | play | NO | public | 1663951142175 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664152770823 | 100 | Sinclair | 1664092330422 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | [{"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 1663951142589}] | ["eag-dc-2022"] | 0.5 | 1664092328661 | 0.601300773100994 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.08949370718303326 | GfD2EnysjxgRMK0ZCzTV | {"NO": 359.2708189379268, "YES": 2553.24471846226} | 0 | will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo | 2875.9364938345007 | Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(misalignment x-risk|AGI) < 7%? | 1677214740000 | oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7861145539338974 | True | play | NO | public | 1663955842229 | Ross Rheingans-Yoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that decreases their position to below 7% on \"P(misalignment x-risk|AGI): Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677278874155 | 480 | rossry | 1674800005221 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1663963655662}] | ["ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz"] | 0.5 | 1674800004811 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09034361887659584 | u1u8ymqGiSHvqS14qU1A | {"NO": 413.95217716546296, "YES": 4098.834445339857} | 0 | will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo-ba1c057db35c | 6795.6287508524165 | Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) < 10%? | 1677214740000 | oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53 | cpmm-1 | 2.4215735436241568 | True | play | NO | public | 1663955867596 | Ross Rheingans-Yoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that decreases their position to below 10% on \"AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677278849928 | 560 | rossry | 1677125413894 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1663963655662}] | ["ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz"] | 0.5 | 1677125413726 | 1671575423173 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.07796315255076573 | xovsPV5Lzo5oRqbM3GQC | {"NO": 418.3644657994451, "YES": 2779.8641067560593} | 0 | will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo-ee88e7980d9a | 5561.726288476818 | Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2100) < 30%? | 1677214740000 | oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53 | cpmm-1 | 2.7015000518728107 | True | play | NO | public | 1663955871643 | Ross Rheingans-Yoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that decreases their position to below 30% on \"AGI will be developed by January 1, 2100\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677278848475 | 540 | rossry | 1676896428251 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1663963655661}, {"name": "Futurism", "slug": "futurism", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "6UkuV4SnUF3NtbDmfVk... | ["ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "futurism"] | 0.5 | 1676896428093 | 1676846886793 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21844492631232948 | tOFIEmstIrnmbEd8OVj8 | {"NO": 305.5374030619919, "YES": 5711.054817983955} | 0 | will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo-1fd10e3d0f1a | 9847.275575004584 | Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(misalignment x-risk|AGI) > 35%? | 1677214740000 | oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53 | cpmm-1 | 1.3183761249986765 | True | play | NO | public | 1663955887155 | Ross Rheingans-Yoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that increases their position to above 35% on \"P(misalignment x-risk|AGI): Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677278873807 | 660 | rossry | 1676677368874 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 29 | [{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1663963655662}] | ["ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz"] | 0.5 | 1676677368748 | 1664140183244 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.21472262683407886 | qYj1RPY0V4CNQ37MCRQ3 | {"NO": 261.61628974460035, "YES": 4978.586124446141} | 0 | will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo-58959fc584ca | 11321.050343871664 | Will the Future Fund pay a prize for p(AGI before 2043) > 45%? | 1677214740000 | oM4vpyCe6Ca43M78SipoTXcgIL53 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.5328733309817304 | True | play | NO | public | 1663955891953 | Ross Rheingans-Yoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the Future Fund pays an AI Worldview Prize for a qualifying published analysis that increases their position to above 45% on \"AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1677278874161 | 540 | rossry | 1675438364929 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "FTX Future Fund's AGI Worldview Prize", "slug": "ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "cZ4Ds5OMxrEyemQUNxkN", "createdTime": 1663963655662}] | ["ftx-future-funds-agi-worldview-priz"] | 0.5 | 1675438364810 | 1668361448812 | 0.01 |
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