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0.22823116439581212 | aqhrTuYd2CeACDgkLGB6 | {"NO": 93.9357426493969, "YES": 1292.5033040847918} | 0 | will-the-sp-500-drop-more-than-8-in | 6243.961442077758 | Will the S&P 500 drop by more than 8% in a single day in 2022? | 1672552740000 | iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5062366347994782 | True | play | NO | public | 1663984398042 | Nicholas Charette | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES upon an accepted update to the following table on Wikipedia ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#Largest_percentage_changes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672593954931 | 200 | NicholasCharette73b6 | 1672090064291 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c | 51 | 0 | 1 | 45 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1663984398573}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1672090064166 | 1664460022676 | 0.02 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.571065692969377 | tPyaQlgPJ1CDBXiuuOC2 | {"NO": 581.5613177643618, "YES": 805.8698264929183} | 0 | will-less-wrongs-big-red-button-be-a6b898d675b1 | 5862.222617127891 | Will Less Wrong's big red button be used on Petrov Day 2023? | 1695700740000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 4.878818632061897e-16 | 0.5505556182141564 | True | play | NO | public | 1664107708709 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For 2022, see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1695818744421 | 720 | MartinRandall | 1695685909082 | 0.2 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664107709090}, {"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664258175725}] | ["petrov-day", "lesswrong"] | 0.12048500939591736 | 0.5 | 1695685908796 | 1692441560070 | 0.49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4275857022226007 | 6mkZRq7ViponHyMgTHcC | {"NO": 126.48590980322629, "YES": 210.25131799352445} | 0.3100509885598006 | will-a-union-latinoamericana-be-cre | 80.00766482619437 | Will a Unión Latinoamericana be created before 2030? | 1893473940000 | wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1664109544840 | O | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if >3 latinoamerican countries become a single government or form a supranational organization (similar to Europe), before 2030.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 160 | o | 1683472419288 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664109545364}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664116194922}] | ["world-default", "politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1683472419144 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.17677600149341033 | HjDs9phAHWYvkvLcTQww | {"NO": 159.9278859692767, "YES": 988.9796652926595} | 0 | will-belarus-extradite-en-masse-rus | 3055.0669244151236 | Will Belarus extradite (en masse) Russian males trying to leave the country in November 2022? | 1669928340000 | Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.8644453590337564 | True | play | NO | public | 1664110593017 | Jeremy Moonders | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to news from reputable Russian or Belorussian sources.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680209577990 | 260 | JeremyMoonders | 1680209576384 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwMNlTYPTRHXwBYKfuMeZo1Eg2qVv904VJYT3rc=s96-c | 27 | 0 | 24 | 27 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "Pu0JleY3yadEltBoUNb0pK2c25T2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664110593694}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564882}, {... | ["politics-default", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1669925260419 | 1680209573762 | False | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | Oi237mAyJ7Q6dSg3Izth | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | who-is-adar-from-the-rings-of-power | 0 | Who is Adar from the Rings of Power? | 1664117635328 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1664117620070 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as either a named character in the Lord of the Rings / Hobbit / Silmarillion, or a $species original to the series.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664117635328 | 100 | Tetraspace | 1664117620070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
odIZaWl4XdcT0ugp3whL | who-is-adar-from-the-rings-of-power-39c69a9e428e | 132.5217637728106 | Who is Adar from the Rings of Power? | 1664828381017 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.826898339220402 | True | play | f66e74499de5 | public | 1664117667398 | Tetra | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as either a named character in the Lord of the Rings / Hobbit / Silmarillion, or a $species original to the series.", "type": "text"}]}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664828381017 | 400 | Tetraspace | 1664484172780 | 0 | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b3195c96445c", "prob": 0.22359837382850903, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.799168205227364, "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 58.3318263435597, "textFts": "", "contractId": "odIZaWl4XdcT0ugp3whL", "createdTime": 1664117667621, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 6 | 1664484172564 | {"f66e74499de5": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999983 | QfFYaiJn9LBhTZWdbGCk | {"NO": 909.999991, "YES": 43.956044390774096} | 1 | pale-lights-will-tristan-abrascal-r | 782.2347061134274 | [Pale lights] Will Tristan Abrascal remain alive for the rest of 2022? | 1672531140000 | HlL8saBy1XWsdYdpWGidMjGq4Fn2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5811577470412232 | True | play | YES | public | 1664124023229 | Theodore Ehrenborg | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to yes if Tristan is still alive as of the most recent chapter on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://palelights.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://palelights.com", "class": "no-underline !te... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672867586040 | 200 | TheodoreEhrenborg | 1670792754479 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gg_-YWWhMhGbcOhYul1S-vwL_ZxAbOCVLX7GApt=s96-c | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 1670792754307 | 0.95 |
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