p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.7163129092438995
qFHevTfPp8NdyOepoGDx
{"NO": 379.10741012523886, "YES": 196.06329939013267}
1
a-critical-review-of-open-philanthr
108.27286908876314
"A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform" by NunoSempere
1664496000000
L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1
cpmm-1
0
1.7687092137751317
True
play
YES
public
1664124944902
Criticism And Red Teaming
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will NunoSempere's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHA...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664597488282
300
CARTBot
1664493507863
0
https://firebasestorage.…a59-ce39c21b2500
9
0
1
10
[{"name": "CART Contest", "slug": "cart-contest", "userId": "L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1", "groupId": "K86LmEmidMKdyCHdHNv4", "createdTime": 1664124945422}]
["cart-contest"]
0.1
1664493505486
0.8299999999999998
0.728837391548958
tGWIIr2CX0uBjAb4oLwY
{"NO": 362.83616110084336, "YES": 199.74790569431627}
1
are-you-really-in-a-race-the-cautio
381.04009123060007
"Are you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and Ellsberg" by HaydnBelfield
1664496000000
L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1
cpmm-1
0
1.8114323473761171
True
play
YES
public
1664125343195
Criticism And Red Teaming
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will HaydnBelfield's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Are you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and Ellsberg", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cXBznkfoPJAja...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664597471331
300
CARTBot
1664495657211
0
https://firebasestorage.…a59-ce39c21b2500
15
0
1
16
[{"name": "CART Contest", "slug": "cart-contest", "userId": "L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1", "groupId": "K86LmEmidMKdyCHdHNv4", "createdTime": 1664125343534}]
["cart-contest"]
0.1
1664495652261
1664247944954
0.83
0.09999999999999998
amGZgJAAQuQjMPdzAv6H
{"NO": 339.72231646714323, "YES": 97.97061999741845}
0
notes-on-how-prizes-may-fail-and-ho
136.04279222376945
"Notes on how prizes may fail and how to reduce the risk of them failing" by Peter Wildeford
1664496000000
L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1
cpmm-1
0
3.3617608311069174
True
play
NO
public
1664125352968
Criticism And Red Teaming
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Peter Wildeford's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Notes on how prizes may fail and how to reduce the risk of them failing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2WcJf7pg5...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664815682834
300
CARTBot
1664496492958
0
https://firebasestorage.…a59-ce39c21b2500
7
0
1
9
[{"name": "CART Contest", "slug": "cart-contest", "userId": "L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1", "groupId": "K86LmEmidMKdyCHdHNv4", "createdTime": 1664125353360}]
["cart-contest"]
0.1
1664493513167
1664496646970
0.10092160729392918
3x8IrJBwNRGvbKPnzloR
{"NO": 297.97664568089425, "YES": 318.63540507504774}
0
prediction-markets-are-somewhat-ove
194.62391864486906
"Prediction Markets are Somewhat Overrated Within EA" by Francis
1664496000000
L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1
cpmm-1
0
3.170948190859474
True
play
NO
public
1664125437001
Criticism And Red Teaming
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Francis's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Prediction Markets are Somewhat Overrated Within EA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4LsrNczpF6mfrHP4M/prediction-markets-a...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664815589003
300
CARTBot
1664493517288
0
https://firebasestorage.…a59-ce39c21b2500
14
0
1
17
[{"name": "CART Contest", "slug": "cart-contest", "userId": "L3WHscU8XVe09e7LwSx3OQ1Qvdl1", "groupId": "K86LmEmidMKdyCHdHNv4", "createdTime": 1664125437285}]
["cart-contest"]
0.1
1664493514900
1664143463050
0.5000000000000002
QpIFEKtuySSuV9ZDOMVV
{"NO": 130.80336042523194, "YES": 76.4506352703076}
1
will-a-bear-catch-a-fish-at-brooks
238.0899446180402
Will a bear catch a fish at Brooks Falls, Alaska?
1664560800000
QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2
cpmm-1
0
2.808533745706055
True
play
YES
public
1664126099638
Robin Foster
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a bear catch a fish on the Brooks Falls livestream between 18:00 and 18:10 UTC on September 30, 2022?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mphg2feuAPo", "type":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664561554811
100
RobinFoster
1664561605806
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzxP5vDmtsmb1gnc6d5kJGNemnV0TXwJ0tDQX32=s96-c
10
0
11
[{"name": "Animal Spirits", "slug": "animal-spirits", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "zeWwxa8E70Ascm33UPBW", "createdTime": 1664126100032}]
["animal-spirits"]
0.5
1664560102582
1664561601138
0.6311258800403774
0.3296182896806521
ZRbH7YwYISQsU8EvlRph
{"NO": 92.09163031881302, "YES": 1920.8437468891846}
0
will-amd-ryzen-5950x-cost-500-on-oc
1782.2248447597142
Will AMD Ryzen 5950X cost < $500 on October 28th?
1667026740000
F2jc9n4FB6OOasUMHUGgtogzrl42
cpmm-1
0
2.3061276768499055
True
play
NO
public
1664127343843
Amaryllis
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve YES if an AMD Ryzen 5950X can be bought new for less than $500 on Amazon or Newegg on October 28th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If >= $500, market resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667077945689
280
Amaryllis
1667072704130
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2j31d1kIbC6pIFYbWAI1pkquDheFj06csGbOo3=s96-c
11
0
1
11
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "F2jc9n4FB6OOasUMHUGgtogzrl42", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664127344433}]
["technology-default"]
0.5
1667020073138
1667072701900
0.02303023612552359
0.23907412436549347
h59nbfpyhWGfoOecsFgt
{"NO": 110.66357752356555, "YES": 3324.328306000329}
0
the-purge-will-ethereum-implement-s
4056.5236740989853
"The Purge": Will Ethereum implement state expiry by the end of 2023?
1704095940000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0
2.731702980088923
True
play
NO
public
1664128333464
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolves YES if, by the end of 2023, nodes participating in the Ethereum network are no longer expected to maintain the entire state. See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:/...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704126272120
300
BoltonBailey
1704126272584
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
18
0
1
11
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664128333921}, {"name": "Ethereum Roadmap", "slug": "ethereum-roadmap", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "oeFLmQWwvkqQWflEoTev", "createdTime": 16656...
["crypto-speculation", "ethereum-roadmap", "blockchain-technology", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1703794786644
1702390407090
0.01
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
0.5000000000000003
VFXzjLOLH8WM64Cm37GK
{"NO": 94.1696582148511, "YES": 106.19131671036415}
0
this-market-is-a-mirror-of-another
544.297205717224
This market is a mirror of another market
1664158393009
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
2.774392782962382
True
play
NO
public
1664128363133
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- If the current time is past 2022-09-30 11:59:59", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664158393009
100
LivInTheLookingGlass
1710462505852
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
3
0
3
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]
["olivia", "short-fuse"]
0.5
1664156415564
1664158447458
0.5
Kzh6dzsXkFx15DTqX8kv
{"NO": 57.81373029440198, "YES": 172.9692920535918}
0
will-i-regret-leaving-the-closing-s
142.16584308154336
Will I regret leaving the closing session with Kelsey Piper and Matthew Yglesias?
1664205540350
pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1
cpmm-1
0
2.920868697852183
True
play
NO
public
1664140805358
Cedar
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I wanna leave before traffic catches on.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664205540350
100
Cedar
1664205528795
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c
3
0
3
[{"name": "EAG DC 2022", "slug": "eag-dc-2022", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "VJW8zLlSzQHSGurI65ly", "createdTime": 1664140806006}, {"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "c...
["eag-dc-2022", "personal-decision-in-hindsight"]
0.5
1664191886599
1664205526811
0.2505111931813842
0.1298774249093321
SgqnUWwPWVK3p6ztomA5
{"NO": 105.48968316345514, "YES": 3086.6661871677775}
0
will-there-be-an-apple-event-before
4607.558659770476
Will there be an Apple event before the end of October?
1667360703745
m8BqAbmOOlVZNEFnwD6bLh2NTzb2
cpmm-1
0
5.148966310223017
True
play
NO
public
1664142458167
CatIsFluffy
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if an Apple event starts before midnight on Nov 1, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667360703745
220
CatIsFluffy
1667352823326
0
https://firebasestorage.…078-83582ecfe76a
15
0
12
[{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "m8BqAbmOOlVZNEFnwD6bLh2NTzb2", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664142458728}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664422764194}]
["apple", "technology-default"]
0.5
1667352823202
1666557303847
0.005075323842590215
0.6315681172582255
xnaJNuxmcUp7UCbcJXmk
{"NO": 367.3529713211944, "YES": 69.0977940068228}
1
in-november-will-people-think-labou
514.2525620995516
In November, will people think Labour would be the best political party at handling the economy?
1669852740000
MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2
cpmm-1
0
2.7649422635303904
True
play
YES
public
1664149225684
Jonathan Nankivell
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-be-the-best-at-handling-the-economy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673965516304
140
JonathanNankivell
1669721424203
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c
12
0
10
11
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1664149226219}]
["uk-politics"]
0.5
1669721365301
1669721421120
0.9
0.5000000000000004
Hvdv0KJw3iEEHcJ22hAx
{"NO": 358.8430038850738, "YES": 27.867340011462726}
1
did-the-user-pepe-sixtyninthcause-e
1386.2346234956917
Did the user @Pepe SixtyNinthCause exploit some form of glitch with Manifolds Markets?
1664415672391
8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2
cpmm-1
0
3.538722120856776
True
play
YES
public
1664150738917
BowTrix
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if there is some announcement from Manifold about a glitch used to generate a large amount of M$ exploited by SixtyNinthCause, or if there is substantial proof that this has occurred. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664415672391
100
BowTrix
1665179256085
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c
11
0
12
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664263097904}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1664404627200
1665179254275
0.9279374331426766
0.23569996046618094
Xrf3nZatd4XuiKTeoYJ2
{"NO": 894.91703942419, "YES": 1303.4676048388335}
0.17473223919547776
will-english-be-an-official-languag
680.8383323960411
Will English be an official language of the Netherlands any time before the end of 2030?
1925020740000
U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1
cpmm-1
0
9.664043572118874
False
basic
public
1664151093524
Evelyn
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dutch is the sole official language of the Netherlands, but 90 to 93% of the Dutch population speak English. English also has official status in two Caribbean territories of the Netherlands (the constituent country) and two other constituent countr...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
athenaciara
1709056957196
0
https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c
37
0
27
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664151094054}, {"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664151110944}, {"name": "Ned...
["world-default", "culture-default", "nederland"]
0.5
1709056957062
1689749929417
0.7265682607183088
Sm2bhMySH8A6W6XKhwE9
{"NO": 783.723366795676, "YES": 1471.4485986476884}
0.5859709081838326
will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat-67d0e728e11a
39848.711155458936
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
1893477540000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0.22565952674065806
8.530326950712652
False
basic
public
1664151461945
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6728", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets ", "type": "text"}]...
BINARY
{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 47.558261759382795, "platformFee": 35.16476437300378, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1265
Gigacasting
1719148134384
1.5
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
88
0
29
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664151462323}, {"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "c...
["technical-ai-timelines", "imo-grand-challenge", "mathematics"]
0.17083178887099082
0.5
1719148131339
False
0.5
SmNXpl16ywd8lC6ISEuY
{"NO": 77.95152334417045, "YES": 128.28485667750383}
0.37797173969004977
will-antitrust-regulators-materiall
71.71514332249617
Will antitrust regulators materially interfere with Adobe's acquisition of Figma?
1664156941560
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
2.8035300419866998
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664153031236
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Materially means a large portion of either business spun-off, a blocked acquisition, or major restrictions on either business post-merger", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664156941560
100
Gigacasting
1664153053467
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
1
0
1
[{"name": "Business", "slug": "business", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "pmK8sntWL1SDkMm53UBR", "createdTime": 1664153031641}]
["business"]
0.5
1664153053266
0.3779717396900498
0.41028029810421757
0WC8TO8BCmXEVPZdvnvc
{"NO": 980.8638691135103, "YES": 1023.6111817000145}
0.3999999999999995
will-some-morbius-sequelprequelspin
186.4811418909138
Will some Morbius Sequel/Prequel/Spinoff release by 2030?
1893474000000
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
cpmm-1
0
9.72079867071195
False
basic
public
1664155539988
Ibozz91
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ibozz91/will-a-sequel-for-morbius-release-b", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can’t just have a Morbius cameo, has to be a Sequel/Prequel/Spinoff.", "type...
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
Ibozz91
1686890077968
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
10
0
10
[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664155540503}]
["culture-default"]
0.09423336299185502
0.5
1686890051320
1686890071641
0.5
8YuUOu8AezpFDz7vTHUK
{"NO": 19.650616196049576, "YES": 508.88989435406745}
0
will-all-the-manifold-team-members
1110.171223903918
Will all the manifold team members sing at least one karaoke song?
1664251140000
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
cpmm-1
0
2.9866593203331506
True
play
NO
public
1664155803232
Ian Philips
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must use the mic, not just sing along", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664291194162
100
ian
1664239575162
0
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
12
0
1
12
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664155803622}]
["fun"]
0.5
1664239575022
1664203174028
0.03717901618477033
0.3716193832297456
J8TcSHFsi1HN1c2QYjaj
{"NO": 45.962925135214846, "YES": 1005.2263285159466}
0
will-do-kwon-be-captured-by-eoy
3459.587474589314
Will Do Kwon be arrested by 2023?
1672552740000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
3.260334949328179
True
play
NO
public
1664159365828
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FuhSWtm6xja.jpeg?alt=media&token=5ed24dd1-b724-4d05-82c1-3568a18505e9", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672561778297
161.69834284636252
Gigacasting
1672458023671
0
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
16
0
1
15
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664159366292}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1672458022457
0.03
0.9318453733499287
SIwKRDNWnaojwyOQjqmz
{"NO": 9444.274139161831, "YES": 345.75133707803155}
1
will-do-kwon-be-convicted-of-a-crim
51872.004213422166
Will Do Kwon be convicted of a crime by 2025?
1690831988080
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0
3.097900228043972
True
play
YES
public
1664159507360
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1574207805824929792"}}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1690831988080
540
Gigacasting
1690832001534
1.7
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
0
31
0
8
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664159507908}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.16535840669438662
0.5
1688156554882
1690831998331
1
0.5000000000000003
pQLhg9ODdGyZtlIcQgmy
{"NO": 378.6949495507727, "YES": 26.406478385472326}
1
will-i-do-at-least-one-pomodoro-of-2cbd5c144d11
352.51613477827175
Will I do at least one pomodoro of work on at least six days this week? (Starting today, Sunday)
1664765138266
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.6004518149450853
True
play
YES
public
1664159981079
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet NO on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 26, 8:58am: I did it Sunday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 26, 10:22am: Monday pom done.", "type": "text"}...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664765138266
100
Charlie
1664761897722
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
8
0
7
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664159981504}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1664761894792
0.9348151436542748
v6zsp2RHCKPUSlRLvcQs
how-many-copies-of-my-book-land-is
732
How many copies of my book "Land is a Big Deal" will get sold in the first month?
1668618702420
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.673446083794112
True
play
4425a4cd68d3
public
1664162427278
Lars Doucet
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I wrote a book. It's called \"Land is a Big Deal\":", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "www.landisabigdeal.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.landisabigdeal.com", "class": "no-underline !t...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668618702420
860
LarsDoucet
1668627982673
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
14
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "88b807f504ab", "prob": 0.014446190828402369, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.157410014945148, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 10.738889003593863, "textFts": "", "contractId": "v6zsp2RHCKPUSlRLvcQs", "createdTime": 1664162428020, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
13
[{"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1664162624187}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664162427870}, {"name": "P...
["economics-default", "georgism", "personal-goals"]
1668407657333
1668627979727
{"4425a4cd68d3": 100}
True
0.5000000000000007
HgKXDwd6TlfkgfBiewWv
{"NO": 245.22385431897598, "YES": 40.7790670600605}
1
will-this-question-help-me-recruit
635.1953443772826
Will this question help me recruit a forecasting team on Infer by the end of 2022?
1667628064910
4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2
cpmm-1
0
3.069629947545275
True
play
YES
public
1664164554184
Brian T. Edwards
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you are interested in giving team forecasting a shot let me know by commenting here and then bet YES because you will be helping me recruit a team!! ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.infer-pub.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "l...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667628064910
100
BTE
1668961573357
0
https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c
14
0
11
0.5
1667246536463
1668961572350
0.8574173058672492
0.590726072576219
csnYMZwY551fNw5Ar1cv
{"NO": 274.6018424927702, "YES": 59.22704885271845}
1
is-there-a-patriarchal-society-wher
275.1559414106015
Is there a patriarchal society where men and women speak different languages?
1669870740000
Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93
cpmm-1
0
2.942053798799596
True
play
YES
public
1664173059111
Javi
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670350556110
120
JavierPrieto
1669865186203
0
https://firebasestorage.…69b-446bc575b844
7
0
2
7
0.5
1669865186055
1664293058258
0.869994664836359
0.8166529884334097
4iGU3RC6LZZBZ3ebRXJz
{"NO": 569.423488801861, "YES": 75.89126922194221}
1
will-any-manifold-markets-contain-t
1587.2640636925553
Will any manifold markets contain the word “pumpkin” by 06/11/22. (Read description for terms)
1667692740000
MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2
cpmm-1
0
4.7826710292791095
True
play
YES
public
1664184213216
Heaffey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EXCLUDING ANY MARKETS MADE BY PEOPLE WHO VOTE ON THIS. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any questions/markets from 26/09/22-05/09/22. Not including this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667727925317
160
Heaffey
1667689140796
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpUsV_FsERh3qn-8uHd-1Z847JkXZrYBJlPNZ0Rzg=s96-c
0
13
0
1
11
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664184213659}]
["fun"]
0.5
1667689140655
1667685835376
0.9709471780799909
0.49999999999999983
0O6iLSULM7MWWDLcCaG3
{"NO": 19.171924423970964, "YES": 521.5960473689795}
0
will-my-toddler-be-consistently-wal
791.0255293115935
Will my toddler be consistently walking by October 4?
1664891940000
Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3
cpmm-1
0
4.005034523576967
True
play
NO
public
1664187399605
Nicola Wilson
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My 20-month-old took his first independent steps on 9/25. He gets to “graduate” from physical therapy when he gets around by walking 90+ percent of the time. His next appointment is 10/4. Will it be his last?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragrap...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664895522305
100
njmkw
1664866742543
0
https://firebasestorage.…e12-2a05b9a967a2
0
9
0
1
9
[{"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1664187400226}]
["parenting"]
0.5
1664866742366
1664447348410
0.03545314335167673
0.7234772187848862
oOfyOaVh5m5pGHzy5iHR
{"NO": 453.2727629865508, "YES": 62.891730384117956}
1
will-my-toddler-be-consistently-wal-ef2c2a42ad3a
788.5237896562851
Will my toddler be consistently walking by October 18?
1666101540000
Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3
cpmm-1
0
2.9235754927514623
True
play
YES
public
1664187478242
Nicola Wilson
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My 20-month-old took his first independent steps on 9/25. He gets to “graduate” from physical therapy when he gets around by walking 90+ percent of the time. Will he be doing it by 10/18? (Resolves to YES if the 10/4 market does.) ", "type": "text"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666105256791
140
njmkw
1666071252721
0
https://firebasestorage.…e12-2a05b9a967a2
12
0
1
11
[{"name": "Parenting", "slug": "parenting", "userId": "Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3", "groupId": "qH1rJ1UfPawvb83ze4fS", "createdTime": 1664187478717}]
["parenting"]
0.5
1666071252610
0.9496385404113543
0.6663816291251318
GgocEQpmKJpCxnYae7r5
{"NO": 1041.6903126123025, "YES": 49.5849720499922}
1
will-twtr-be-delisted-from-the-nyse
3629.3560889480987
Will TWTR (twitter) be delisted from the NYSE by Jan 31st, 2023?
1666909412866
TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2
cpmm-1
0
3.4472568510712036
True
play
YES
public
1664189519056
Alex...
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similar polymarket question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-twtr-be-delisted-from-the-nyse-by", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymar...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666909412866
160
AlexLiesman
1666909697574
0
https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc
11
0
8
[{"name": "Twitter", "slug": "twitter", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH", "createdTime": 1664189519475}]
["twitter"]
0.5
1666904994292
1666909695077
0.976723900562356
0.6578947356301929
k2TIUHOLnI6KHriTwS8k
{"NO": 1219.9999950000001, "YES": 25.672881603190262}
1
will-a-final-fantasy-pixel-remaster
1196.4142533463444
Will a Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster be released on Xbox or PlayStation before 2024?
1681928038997
SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1
cpmm-1
0
4.762315391123203
True
play
YES
public
1664189935967
Chocobo
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Square Enix released the Final Fantasy Pixel Remasters only on Steam, Android and iOs so far.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finalfantasypixelremaster.square-enix-games.com/en_US/", "type": "text", "marks":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681928100520
120
Chocobo
1681047755320
0
https://firebasestorage.…aa8-0ffda942bc16
3
0
3
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1664189936521}]
["gaming"]
0.5
1680804042892
1681047751647
0.99
0.31995734842629064
WuFAjuE026RcivBf27za
{"NO": 98.13297847121186, "YES": 4720.598291265979}
0
will-the-price-of-natural-gas-on-th
6334.602238434361
Will the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF spot market rise above 200€/MWh between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023?
1677690000000
4YGKtEPKfLcAPZTdIZuUe48c9s23
cpmm-1
2.226789624022399
True
play
NO
public
1664196085396
Philippe Lemoine
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve to \"YES\" if, at any point between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023, day-ahead or weekend contracts on the Dutch TTF spot market are traded at 200€/MWh or more at the end of the day according to the data published by EE...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1677693820819
540
phl43
1677667344044
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco0X0Xyza_8Q45IZKieYBa2TdR5nPzEXT72UQgj=s96-c
29
0
1
23
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "4YGKtEPKfLcAPZTdIZuUe48c9s23", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664196086020}]
["economics-default"]
0.5
1677667343886
0.01
0.4245789599224497
kdXcJjB0CQXHjTrgMpvT
{"NO": 106.6136483313679, "YES": 412.9950436967676}
0
will-penny-be-brought-back-to-life
778.0842244453547
Will Penny be brought back to life in Season 9 of RWBY
1701493140000
scCgdNJxyHOhVbbXc8cShA9JKJD2
cpmm-1
0
1.9351624122749849
True
play
NO
public
1664200723143
Murloc Knight
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve as Yes if Penny is brought back to life through any means in Season 9, as either a human or a robot. Question will resolve to No if Penny has remained dead by the end of Season 9.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1702941479379
200
MurlocKnight
1702855720518
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyEUbB022Kx7dRkd0Fgf1Q3uOwg9TxnY3yBh9Yo=s96-c
0
10
0
4
3
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "scCgdNJxyHOhVbbXc8cShA9JKJD2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1664200723691}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime...
["entertainment", "ancient-markets"]
0.5
1700787972156
1702855718587
0.16
W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3
0.500000000000001
JUXnwTZM6BlhQFU36dzp
{"NO": 424.6251019571465, "YES": 23.550185690645364}
1
will-i-do-at-least-25-pomodoros-tod
498
Will I do at least 25 pomodoros today?
1664248892818
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.737981958826884
True
play
YES
public
1664201695408
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Considerations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A \"pomodoro\" is a 25 minute work session.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664248892818
100
Charlie
1664248930687
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
5
0
5
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664201695944}, {"name": "Charlie's Hack Days", "slug": "charlies-hack-days", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "iEzv4lSKQpAfmu6Gk33k", "createdTime": 1664...
["personal-goals", "charlies-hack-days"]
0.5
1664237713824
1664248927715
0.9474531810661709
0.05675498362261189
sAoU2gji3YhELBN3LTlI
{"NO": 901.1432451947635, "YES": 1964.3952682326667}
0.02686082766712218
will-king-charles-permanently-exile
2955.838459285319
Will King Charles permanently exile Prince Harry from the UK by 11:59pm 12/31/24?
1735707540000
G3S3nhcGWhPU3WEtlUYbAH4tv7f1
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1664202549061
AGG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.009429869503705411}
0
{"creatorFee": 1.1260136189515944, "platformFee": 0.03898641054549198, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
AGG
1717674051645
0
https://firebasestorage.…9ef-7839c1d6b8d0
27
0
18
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "G3S3nhcGWhPU3WEtlUYbAH4tv7f1", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1664202549647}]
["uk-politics"]
0.5
1717674048519
1696256097081
0.5000000000000001
JiiYKinWEPiapVeM86nV
{"NO": 131.98823567521416, "YES": 75.76432815275436}
0.5
is-it-socially-acceptable-for-a-mar-5af944612a76
518.3296477830582
Is it socially acceptable for a market creator to correct a binary market before resolving it?
1664855940000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.5110997064631673
True
play
MKT
public
1664204162180
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the situation where a market is about to close at a number different from its current probability, is it ok for the creator to correct it right before closing?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666176594816
100
IsaacKing
1664860942798
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
18
0
1
20
[{"name": "Management of Olivia's Bot", "slug": "management-of-olivias-bot", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cpMUDRlGNrGmeJf3SIuk", "createdTime": 1666410757906}]
["management-of-olivias-bot"]
0.5
1664826249818
1664860940641
0.5
0.3719049767477816
lBhZbQuOWTN4uDzqibbI
{"NO": 419.6716381915204, "YES": 1549.9944055677001}
0
will-i-spend-over-50-on-ai-music-ge
3053.608474442784
Will I spend over $50 on AI music generation in 2023?
1704067140000
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
cpmm-1
0
0.6742151645789318
True
play
NO
public
1664205739167
Tetra
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For images, I have spend ~$150 on a combination of DALL-E and Midjourney since their releases as of the time of writing. Another type of AI art I’m excited about is music.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704128557897
780
Tetraspace
1704128558335
0
https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f
1
45
0
1
18
[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664206629520}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132259967}]
["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.1116277802126502
0.5
True
1703157711813
1703785813336
0.14
K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3
0.5
lzUHcnZkufU8doXArOE5
{"NO": 27.445292620865132, "YES": 364.3612089745966}
0
will-i-press-the-petrov-day-button
295
If given the opportunity, will I press the Petrov day button?
1664258112108
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
3.556019080107941
True
play
NO
public
1664206157666
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I know what I plan on doing, and I'm curious what people predict that is.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if I press the button. It resolves to NO if I never press ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664258112108
100
IsaacKing
1664258184478
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
0
4
[{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664206609867}, {"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664258137563}]
["lesswrong", "petrov-day"]
0.5
1664258104676
1664258178696
0.3284180104436926
0.6936829103122836
xPRT0IfwphCQIcjN1F5a
{"NO": 1081.3393204984636, "YES": 952.3077056999286}
0.7199999999999991
will-a-new-tuberculosis-vaccine-be
362.3355876147222
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?
1988168340000
xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
0.07575373184473612
9.585320875297885
False
basic
public
1664208547383
Gavriel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A tuberculosis vaccine for infants was developed a century ago but has variable/poor efficacy, often estimated at ~50% effective.(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "doi.org/10.1001/jama.1994.03510330076038", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "a...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
GavrielK
1703060901775
1.4
https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476
18
0
12
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1664208547891}, {"name": "Research.Bet", "slug": "researchbet", "userId": "RhUpUdddisZfGnz8LIESOGJXfSF3", "groupId": "YTmC33Pjdw0BASR2Qpck", "createdTime": 1664302703618}, {"name":...
["science-default", "researchbet", "ancient-markets"]
0.11301489730408269
0.5
1703060901641
1688155244021
0.5
yDnJ5kdlsGDxBD3gg2x1
{"NO": 31.645569620253163, "YES": 316}
0
would-heaffe-have-accepted-it-if-th
216
Would Heaffey have accepted it if this title didn't include the word "pumpkin", but did include the word "equivalent"?
1664301331398
iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1
cpmm-1
0
3.400916241895046
True
play
NO
public
1664208931187
Mr Stone
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-any-manifold-markets-contain-t", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-an...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664301331398
100
stone
1664247383553
0
https://firebasestorage.…31e-546942b030c7
3
0
5
0.5
1664247383373
1664222489413
0.09102825517040487
0.3646738990296068
8NOwhLjjVCivDKhAMzHm
{"NO": 51.31640916626418, "YES": 958.2370870522107}
0
will-do-kwon-be-apprehended-before
1320.413997724996
Will Do Kwon be apprehended before the end of 2022?
1672541502649
wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2
cpmm-1
0
3.121527987488653
True
play
NO
public
1664211784909
Ryan P
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if Do Kwon is apprehended by authorities before 2022 is over, otherwise it resolves to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/09/26/interpol-...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672541502649
180
REP
1672529538838
0
https://firebasestorage.…839-b9d5e577a3c1
14
0
14
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664211785565}]
["crypto-speculation"]
0.5
1672529538645
1667590474131
0.03
0.5000000000001457
lYZyMogds22pUwExJiQw
{"NO": 12510.000000000004, "YES": 0.799360511589839}
1
will-hurricane-ian-hit-florida
12879.525516226953
Will Hurricane Ian hit Florida?
1664393623814
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
5.0257503775033765
True
play
YES
public
1664215300805
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes only if still a hurricane when it hits. Major news media must report that Hurricane Ian hit Florida. Simple as that.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664393623814
100
Predictor
1664393617268
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
16
0
15
[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1664215301204}]
["weather"]
0.5
1664393615907
1664314782775
0.9810749432248297
0.5000000000000001
fsGeQA5iRxTv3VOSJ2Bv
{"NO": 172.99999250444546, "YES": 57.80347071253795}
0.7495554446763408
if-i-do-a-resurrection-campaign-for
78.57000168428438
If I do a resurrection campaign for Emile.chat, will I resurrect at least one former user within the next two months?
1669528740000
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
2.920963596596933
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664217058711
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Planning to reach out to somewhere between ~75-143 users who previously signed up for our bedtime goal-setting chatbot with credit card as far back as 2017. May also reach out to the large number of users who signed up for Emile before it was a pai...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669994625058
100
Charlie
1669994669464
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
4
0
4
[{"name": "Futarchy", "slug": "futarchy", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "EJCOBN0yMJJ73x4Eh2L6", "createdTime": 1664217059112}]
["futarchy"]
0.5
1667246534825
1669994667698
0.7495554446763408
0.5647410346075231
48IAl4RUOEIy36Z1uBW4
{"NO": 384.1222216259627, "YES": 115.71762825353369}
1
will-harry-maguire-play-a-decent-wo
590.9011451345704
Will Harry Maguire play a decent World Cup?
1670708700000
04XyRIRHOfRFaXZxP2V4wUaMExn1
cpmm-1
0
1.840615946561836
True
play
YES
public
1664221445936
SANTIAGO SUÁREZ
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he has a SofaScore player rating of above 7.0 for the World Cup AND be able to start in a third or more of England's games, the market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1670815014089
200
STGO
1684950110129
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSANTIAGOSUAREZ%2FL9c56Nt3Nr.12?alt=media&token=1dfacc72-4f9e-4ad6-94f3-94b6dd0e84a1
0
16
0
1
15
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "04XyRIRHOfRFaXZxP2V4wUaMExn1", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1664221446485}]
["2022-fifa-world-cup"]
0.5
1670707803079
1684950107535
0.81
0.4999999999999995
Uy6DHcpinXAZ06499lyf
{"NO": 432.1137142638205, "YES": 23.142056523331377}
1
will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-7a6e92efa357
991.4040040979471
Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on September 27, 2022?
1664305200000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
3.7597109263545128
True
play
YES
public
1664222570734
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664308885815
100
Predictor
1664304150385
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
10
0
1
10
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1664222571115}]
["wall-street-bets"]
0.5
1664304150165
1664222588391
0.9491669122978539
6zwpvM1atdRfH2xGUHOk
what-will-i-build-in-the-manifold-h
259
What will I build in the Manifold Hackathon?
1664283600000
tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.7453432429732825
True
play
05ae3fcc17a0
public
1664223180762
FRC
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whatever I focus my hackathon time on (it'll take place tomorrow, 27 Sept).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't require me to actually ship it during the hackathon for it to...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664338317600
660
FRCassarino
1664343801911
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c
10
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "5145915f3791", "prob": 0.07759095599816886, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.8002999317688415, "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 21.402145618861162, "textFts": "", "contractId": "6zwpvM1atdRfH2xGUHOk", "createdTime": 1664223181589, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...
1
10
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664223181417}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
1664279828680
1664343795632
{"05ae3fcc17a0": 100}
True
0.5000000000000002
WBHwymLuPnrFdooJUwhM
{"NO": 249.19136877222155, "YES": 40.129800840496614}
1
will-anthony-fantano-rate-bladees-n
164.52800625998364
Will Anthony Fantano rate Bladee's next album Spiderr a 6 or higher?
1664780340000
N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2
cpmm-1
0
3.1756977529392496
True
play
YES
public
1664225726502
Big Chungus
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Spiderr will be released September 30. The market closes October 2. I will resolve it once Anthony Fantano drops a rating or N/A if he doesn't rate it within a few weeks. Hopefully this gives people a chance to bet only on their own impression of t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665275654860
100
BigChungus
1673758203508
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml980-A_7MMgiiaLKrtjU9wpNeszPqd-_ea2-Dm=s96-c
5
0
1
6
[{"name": "Music", "slug": "music-f213cbf1eab5", "userId": "N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2", "groupId": "Xuc2UY8gGfjQqFXwxq5d", "createdTime": 1664225726868}]
["music-f213cbf1eab5"]
0.5
1664761901473
1673758200339
0.8612967004999535
0.5
D7N6DO9WNU9Fc7ZJN3hd
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
how-many-supreme-court-justices-wil
0
How many Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by a Democratic president by 2025, if Democrats maintain control the Senate?
1664226236815
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664226211643
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves based on two conditions: Firstly, on Jan 20th, the number of stitting Supreme Court justices who were appointed by a Democratic President. Secondly, whether Democrats maintain control of the Senate in the 2022 midterms. Both of these ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664226236815
100
NathanpmYoung
1664226211643
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
0
0
1
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664226212130}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
0.5
2gFCMLLpEBYVJSMMcpwO
how-many-supreme-court-justices-wil-1e597c3853ad
14030.852485398056
How many Supreme Court Justices will have been appointed by a Democratic president by 2025, if Democrats maintain control the Senate?
1737349260000
lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33
cpmm-multi-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1664226263895
Nathan Young
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only to categories that Nathan Young creates.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This resolves based on two conditions: Firstly, on Jan 20th, the number of stitting Supreme Court justices who were ap...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0.057627137786627244, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000.0000000000005
NathanpmYoung
1716579534625
0.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c
13
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "c54c2b47c878", "prob": 0.00696473374229102, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.012790470477840743, "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 1.8236717621233685, "textFts": "", "contractId": "2gFCMLLpEBYVJSMMcpwO", "createdTime": 1664226264746, "probChanges": {"day": 8.67361737...
6
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664226264605}, {"name": "SCOTUS", "slug": "scotus", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ELCKhzulQFwYzmSyaOnx", "createdTime": 1666247330751}]
["us-politics", "scotus"]
0.12595860013044002
1716579528926
1684531249936
True
True
0.41707887098899366
eXBkM0jeWNehZJOmmKQz
{"NO": 128.05469996179272, "YES": 4819.292627715705}
0
will-the-bank-of-england-base-rate
37096.75730470655
Will the bank of England base rate reach 5.5% anytime in 2023 (or higher)
1703807940000
MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2
cpmm-1
0.016381461293467407
1.418970458143312
True
play
NO
public
1664227427190
Heaffey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The interest rate set by the bank of England. by the end of the year 2023 or sooner ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704070226359
905
Heaffey
1704070226901
1.1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpUsV_FsERh3qn-8uHd-1Z847JkXZrYBJlPNZ0Rzg=s96-c
1
51
0
1
9
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1664227427579}, {"name": "Bank of England", "slug": "bank-of-england", "groupId": "924ea928-827b-4b35-af03-ff60a88f9faf", "createdTime": 1691063077282}]
["uk-politics", "bank-of-england"]
0.13484765301456894
0.5
1703789484560
1698873375753
False
0.02
MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2
0.5756593839433651
XcdvE4K4eBeFtjz8SCa8
{"NO": 1437.7490861925958, "YES": 1950.4466975471012}
0.49999999999999994
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the
32009.125671775055
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
1830319140000
wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2
cpmm-1
0.04118714278076385
6.321231303632601
False
basic
public
1664227588923
Gigacasting
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6728", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}
BINARY
{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.007164721889348635}
0
{"creatorFee": 25.312605173455083, "platformFee": 3.7803488062576185, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1750
Gigacasting
1718133807611
1.4
https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b
0
129
0
25
[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664227589475}, {"name": "IMO Grand Challenge", "slug": "imo-grand-challenge", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "rOTh4ovS26Q699HzfgGy", "c...
["technical-ai-timelines", "imo-grand-challenge", "mathematics"]
0.15565451383009773
0.5
1718133804437
1716760087165
False
0.10546678491066151
hgUJ8z5S5VLI5cGf08ML
{"NO": 823.3431218649374, "YES": 2583.529186321609}
0.03621326399379408
will-manifold-have-a-realmoney-mark
3682.422875852713
Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
1735685940000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0
10.343787486889866
False
basic
public
1664231921842
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Includes any real-money market listed on this platform, or a directly affiliated or subsidiary platform (but not a third party) offering real-money markets. If Manifold is acquired, changes its name, or expands into other business areas but otherwi...
BINARY
{"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -2.0816681711721685e-17}
0
{"creatorFee": 9.083233892633098, "platformFee": 2.8243594074664657, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
SG
1719864075794
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
1
36
1
28
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1664231922403}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ...
["2024-us-presidential-election", "manifold-6748e065087e", "us-politics"]
0.5
1719864072516
1715414090302
False
0.5887597860120117
ZrdR3oWX5Wf9tWgi0p8S
{"NO": 1257.6465162923123, "YES": 849.3338846336583}
0.6794805814952891
we-will-see-6-months-of-unemploymen
342.84967009854154
We will see 6 months of unemployment above 5% before we see 6 months of inflation below 2%.
1735714740000
hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2
cpmm-1
0
9.760843396247184
False
basic
public
1664233749580
Connor McCormick
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/RanaGujral/status/1574527914246225921?s=20&t=x4rYgs89r_XRlzauMJWO4g", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/RanaGujral/status/1574527914246225921?s=20&t=x4rYgs89r_XRlzauMJWO4g", "class...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07962115573992556}
0
{"creatorFee": 6.363904245520588, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1000
ConnorMcCormick
1719608505825
0
https://firebasestorage.…922-39183f3d58f5
12
1
10
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "hlRu3s01YZTAhxEcMgZljxmBOoL2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664233750239}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736965723...
["economics-default", "ancient-markets"]
0.08915114448339839
0.5
1719608502675
0.5
U4UzRDj1zWpDdH33WJfn
{"NO": 61.85607889514799, "YES": 161.66559825027005}
0
will-all-the-petrov-day-game-player
236.90117535593942
Will all the Petrov Day game players understand the rules and strategy by the end of the game?
1664244347042
xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2
cpmm-1
0
2.843838836333035
True
play
NO
public
1664234493373
Gavriel
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve by a poll of the players.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 26, 7:22pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will all the Petrov Day game players understand the rules by the end of the game?", "type": "text"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664244347042
100
GavrielK
1664244306611
0
https://firebasestorage.…deb-cc3393d3e476
8
0
7
[{"name": "Washifold", "slug": "washifold", "userId": "xnl6Ma221lPjTrK4H5LzHVwuftj2", "groupId": "LHPEN470d1jPLU7YIzv5", "createdTime": 1664234493770}]
["washifold"]
0.5
1664244303417
0.4
0.5130758285120671
6KCxbFq5uRVAGQyOeC5N
{"NO": 420.12302590667457, "YES": 822.1328813477925}
0
will-biden-be-president-on-october
167976.950223043
Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]
1667521850348
iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1
cpmm-1
0
0.5972325837920318
True
play
NO
public
1664234722923
Nicholas Charette
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve at a randomly chosen time (known only to me) between October 13 23:59 ET and October 20 23:59 ET.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "* If the price at that time is >=80%, this market will resolve YES.", "ty...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1667521850348
620
NicholasCharette73b6
1667583451036
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c
0
52
0
1
48
[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1666856381653}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1664235059671}...
["selfresolving", "whale-watching", "experimental"]
0.5
False
1667521421038
1667583439989
0.35000000000000014
0.24757390331431336
i8EgB1KhafkesfeGTgRq
{"NO": 68.20484068933342, "YES": 2487.0521053424895}
0
will-taylor-swift-host-snl-during-s
3853.74844022263
Will Taylor Swift host SNL during Season 48?
1693465140000
HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433
cpmm-1
0.010862996833118603
3.6984423920592153
True
play
NO
public
1664238721340
Conflux
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She was a musical guest in 2021, 2019, and 2017, but hasn't hosted since 2009 (when she was also musical guest). She's also got an album, Midnights, coming out next month. Also, apparently (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/snl-looking-tap-rock-j...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1693530217817
220
Conflux
1693530237983
1.2
https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17
18
0
1
11
[{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1664591219483}, {"name": "Taylor Swift", "slug": "taylor-swift", "userId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "groupId": "TgyXEpID2HktDrf1QYfB", "createdTime": 167...
["entertainment", "taylor-swift"]
0.11880918939065763
0.5
1691637179210
1693530237689
0.01
0.6657009723897667
jBwBEu6YblhWAmFyYfXW
{"NO": 406.67230366385473, "YES": 126.35528191233992}
1
will-i-exercise-on-average-half-an
609.4699625918095
Will I exercise on average half an hour a day before my birthday?
1666151940000
pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1
cpmm-1
0
1.9468162223272496
True
play
YES
public
1664242139952
Cedar
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "23 days left until Oct 19", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do yoga, swim, gym, and runs.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666617260130
200
Cedar
1666134892612
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c
14
0
2
14
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664242140441}]
["personal-goals"]
0.5
1666134890056
1664294482456
0.8650303632632983
0.46479843382153696
wPdo3FTbbdj5BvFybKNZ
{"NO": 120.16276643208244, "YES": 164.70767949193748}
0
will-apple-hole-an-event-in-january
112.09432991916464
Will apple hold an event in January 2023?
1672559940000
T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3
cpmm-1
0
2.1277155089182678
True
play
NO
public
1664244752342
Passion Fruit
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 26, 7:12pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will apple hole an event in January 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " → Will apple hold an event in January 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1694300490885
140
PassionFruit
1694300495474
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c
7
0
51
6
[{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664244752747}]
["apple"]
0.5
1667398376444
1694300493436
0.39
0.6539368582209132
61z9nqE0IxEIAkZL2ro0
{"NO": 327.00735388993576, "YES": 275.65965432910804}
0
will-lesswrong-petrov-day-2023-be-a
537.0437233816112
Will LessWrong Petrov Day 2023 be about blowing up home page(s)?
1695700740000
sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1
cpmm-1
0
1.302412268116909
True
play
NO
public
1664251814630
Martin Randall
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, in my judgment, the LessWrong Petrov Day 2023 celebration (ritual, event) is about blowing up home page(s), like 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the celebr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1695819627447
300
MartinRandall
1695766041481
0.1
https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b
18
0
2
https://firebasestorage.…452-eb112a39a69e
6
[{"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664278107998}]
["petrov-day"]
0.0985592154994109
0.5
1695681454499
1695766039797
0.69
0.8008745633772232
LT6dsaVEPNGf4CR6Iplu
{"NO": 3787.5090158908492, "YES": 226.839708960642}
1
will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-197144ac38ab
5570.180070066541
Will Artemis I Launch by the end of November?
1668606933086
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
1.8666910128835932
True
play
YES
public
1664257171590
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Artermis 1 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Yev/will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-75233245efeb", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe",...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668606933086
500
Jenny
1668600798702
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
33
0
30
[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664257427237}, {"name": "Artemis program", "slug": "artemis-program", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "7tZRaI9VeFgLXFDbKtrX", "createdTime": 1664257171974}, {"name": "Art...
["artemis-program", "space", "artemis-1"]
0.5
1668600798586
1667229748759
0.9853273624272476
0.17162519105668847
COaqFPxBv2GY1vgfo1A3
{"NO": 154.90047608472713, "YES": 516.3835263423384}
0
will-i-have-more-than-10-merged-pul
1843.8003192490146
Will I have more than 10 merged Pull Requests on Manifold markets by end of year?
1672541941809
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
3.1158934980000113
True
play
NO
public
1664257543676
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that my PRs are more likely to be related to docs and the API, rather than internals. This means they will necessarily be more, smaller PRs", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672541941809
280
LivInTheLookingGlass
1672541853089
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
1
18
0
16
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664257558847}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664257544163}, {"name": "Man...
["personal-goals", "olivia", "manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1672541852988
1672233377132
0.06
0.4999999999999999
tMKBS00HpjmqUzxygDso
{"NO": 253.6295751596547, "YES": 39.42757856099879}
1
should-i-change-my-github-username
231.6432781784749
Should I change my GitHub username?
1664942340000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
2.9079817382330875
True
play
YES
public
1664258183426
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pro:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New name would match the name I go by", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665187084987
100
LivInTheLookingGlass
1710462520599
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
16
0
1
16
[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Recommendations", "slug": "recommendations", "groupId": "IU4YOTQH1dK1S5gcRO1V"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd...
["fun", "olivia", "recommendations", "short-fuse"]
0.5
1664934788506
1665187156727
0.8654611291332551
0.5000000000000001
M7rBNXEbZpeMzSg7oMAe
{"NO": 26.562564564368927, "YES": 376.4696731660473}
0
will-anyone-try-to-take-credit-for
337.2961865442214
Will anyone try to take credit for nuking LessWrong?
1664942340000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
3.5936009430990716
True
play
NO
public
1664258404902
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Multicore/will-less-wrongs-big-red-button-be", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665013809703
100
Jenny
1664942916145
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
0
15
0
1
16
[{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664258405322}, {"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664258435283}]
["lesswrong", "petrov-day"]
0.5
1664934787106
1664942928672
0.0659067987065996
J6mJMJWXNz9yuKzLSFuY
who-pressed-the-2022-petrov-day-but
16.346845236040963
Who pressed the 2022 Petrov Day button?
1672549200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.001074896210422
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664258752029
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If one person comes forward claiming to have pressed the button, this market resolves to that person, unless they're known to be a troll or otherwise unreliable.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text":...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672608450524
340
IsaacKing
1669432345756
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
4
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "e84150fd6bb6", "prob": 0.8958495112597737, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 36.65468002683607, "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 4.261433188754151, "textFts": "", "contractId": "J6mJMJWXNz9yuKzLSFuY", "createdTime": 1664258752289, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...
1
6
[{"name": "LessWrong", "slug": "lesswrong", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "K0U4VlIwJhdyTp53mqVk", "createdTime": 1664259012027}, {"name": "Petrov Day", "slug": "petrov-day", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "6ScigIHrIjRg1Mv8Sgll", "createdTime": 1664259015078}]
["lesswrong", "petrov-day"]
1669432345573
1664465610587
True
0.5472003369411685
4PmxTMtlv9n1u3kNh8lR
{"NO": 174.47994240427678, "YES": 114.31017888923452}
0.6484560225146075
will-the-nature-conservancy-set-up
80.56299445249961
Will The Nature Conservancy set up a fourth Global Debt Conversion by end of 2025?
1767243540000
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
0
10.586609649448985
False
play
public
1664259207682
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if, by market close, TNC has announced some sort of financial deal with a country similar to the ones it made with Barbados[1], Belize[2], and the Seychelles[3].", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "con...
BINARY
{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16}
0
{"creatorFee": 0.12498176865875195, "platformFee": 0.12498176865875195, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
140
LivInTheLookingGlass
1713847435239
0
https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97
4
0
2
[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664259231007}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664259221797}, {"name": "Economics", "...
["finance", "economics-default", "world-default", "olivia", "climate"]
0.08790038373185946
0.5
1713847431774
0.5
aR4eQUVqgWxj4XwjWCGC
{"NO": 28.51908091074884, "YES": 350.6424358938941}
0
will-i-say-anything-online-that-i-r-d616f135d1b1
2209.9011826272877
Will I say anything online that I regret in the next week?
1664942340000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.8751451869435294
True
play
NO
public
1664260952993
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have a tendency to say things thoughtlessly online that I end up regretting later. This market resolves to YES if between open and close I make a comment online and then significantly regret it. Resolves to NO if I successfully avoid doing that."...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664995607270
100
IsaacKing
1664934790618
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
8
0
1
8
[{"name": "Personal Decision in Hindsight", "slug": "personal-decision-in-hindsight", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "SLMVFX9gYBmAciVC1csu", "createdTime": 1670450014848}]
["personal-decision-in-hindsight"]
0.5
1664934787638
0.07521618003612654
0.29565874542363
jFwCCY4V19VWcfOhIfEG
{"NO": 100.60408942644693, "YES": 493.1396902063113}
0
will-there-be-50-lethal-incidents-d
797.4134851741933
Will there be >= 50 lethal incidents during protests in Dagestan, Russia, in 2022?
1672527540000
rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2
cpmm-1
0
2.5594560399362725
True
play
NO
public
1664271720267
Marlon K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves \"yes\" if at least three major news outlets and/or the Russian Federation and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies report an escalation of violence that has resulted in more than 50 deadly incidents on any side by 31st Dece...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672698065216
180
MarlonK
1672524934937
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c
14
0
1
14
[{"name": "Protest", "slug": "protest-477e21b09291", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "B68FJhVP7WsoNPK1cFwq", "createdTime": 1664641337933}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664271721094}, {"name": "Viol...
["russia", "protest-477e21b09291", "violence"]
0.5
1672524934496
1666108611363
0.08
0.17174922523366945
ZYQy2N4DsZUfl5vKEd4m
{"NO": 134.6474242989278, "YES": 726.9190355153142}
0
will-the-conservatives-win-the-next
712.0456181530297
Will the Conservatives win the next by-election?
1689345344916
MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2
cpmm-1
0
3.1070978880368747
True
play
NO
public
1664272756906
Jonathan Nankivell
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1689345344916
220
JonathanNankivell
1689345354533
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c
13
0
6
[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1664272757356}]
["uk-politics"]
0.1036741535878128
0.5
1689312054966
1689345352122
0.04
0.6753597110504191
1zN4Cnxt4DKsheA8jyxZ
{"NO": 446.52765573318067, "YES": 143.71224541811233}
0
will-russia-be-accused-of-sabotagin
3156.751920455256
Will Russia be accused of sabotaging Nord Stream 1 and/or Nord Stream 2 in 2022?
1672527540000
rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2
cpmm-1
0
1.5561352652455966
True
play
NO
public
1664274032777
Marlon K
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 have been damaged on 2022-09-26. By 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2022, will there be a consistent piece of evidence or a NATO country government and/or U.S. or U.K. intelligence agencies clearly accusing the Russian Federa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673791268893
220
MarlonK
1673879893993
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c
28
0
3
25
[{"name": "Energy Crisis", "slug": "energy-crisis", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "1hx6HrZb8D9nQsTWDpKM", "createdTime": 1664641287759}, {"name": "Nord Stream", "slug": "nord-stream", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "3j7Zk1VAOzn5WyA8kMkY", "createdTime": 1664641264667}, {"nam...
["russia", "geopolitics", "energy", "nato", "nord-stream", "energy-crisis", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1672319628664
1673879889019
False
0.87
0.21222689985610735
iek273YzwY8p2u7nwcW3
{"NO": 86.49939721833204, "YES": 919.0098368394995}
0
will-russia-formally-declare-war-on-d3aa4192f347
1126.1917325739905
Will Russia formally declare war on Ukraine during 2022?
1672491540000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
3.751253771327001
True
play
NO
public
1664275782951
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672537958382
180
Keepcalmandchill
1672474692725
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
19
0
1
18
[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664275783437}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222588}]
["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1672474689327
1664804856703
False
0.02
AwMmwnl1wWzIdUekFYfM
manifold-plays-chess-move-1
98
Manifold plays chess move: 1.
1664326800000
TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.839774262250697
True
play
46b6ff70050b
public
1664281230907
Alex...
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You (Manifold) have been challenged to a game of chess! You'll be white playing me (Alex) a ~2000 lichess player who will not use any outside assistance.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664358900117
580
AlexLiesman
1664322191302
0
https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc
9
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "21b7fcb76da5", "prob": 0.2550760126517702, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.499710201191137, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 42.344953671558606, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AwMmwnl1wWzIdUekFYfM", "createdTime": 1664281231556, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...
1
9
[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664281231392}, {"name": "Manifold plays chess", "slug": "manifold-plays-chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ZbnbyDVipy8GQ3qOaBLT", "createdTime": 1664756503990}]
["fun", "manifold-plays-chess"]
1664322190005
1664308037289
{"46b6ff70050b": 100}
True
0.5000000000000001
IakqugpxVOXhIumInDFv
{"NO": 70.1810026597537, "YES": 142.48870236980295}
0.3300000000000001
what-fraction-of-coin-sides-worldwi
466.5224796520685
What fraction of coin sides worldwide show a person's head?
1665161822162
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
2.134723615407105
True
play
MKT
public
1664284735738
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Of all standard coins in circulation anywhere in the world, what fraction of their sides show a person's head?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whatever I think is a reasonable esti...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665161822162
100
jack
1665100605025
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
8
0
1
7
[{"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1664284736259}]
["selfresolving"]
0.5
1665100604827
1665067702452
0.3300000000000001
0.7191447104545041
gWXukFZoKKLNuQhMB1MD
{"NO": 727.0288735052682, "YES": 51.026204723499774}
1
by-how-many-minutes-did-dart-reduce
831.22199973259
By how many minutes did DART reduce the orbital period of Didymoon?
1665547140000
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
1.9042514788402318
True
play
MKT
public
1664286615511
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the fractional number of minutes by which the DART mission shortened the orbit of Didymoon.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-11 11:59 pm", "type": "tex...
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665548407903
120
MarketManagerBot
1710462512570
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
5
0
7
[{"name": "🧪 Science", "slug": "science-default", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"nam...
["science-default", "space", "free-money", "olivia", "short-fuse"]
0.6666666666666665
1665541379229
1665532990441
1
0.14311798699860584
z20XzCZ4T0pTJ1KOimc5
{"NO": 93.1745798450367, "YES": 1540.6565342120655}
0
did-the-user-ninthcause-exploit-som
4853.789120345231
Did the user @NinthCause exploit some form of glitch with Manifolds Markets?
1666846740000
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
2.6624110357505812
True
play
NO
public
1664289830747
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if there is some announcement from Manifold about a glitch used to generate a large amount of M$ exploited by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "fdFWFcU8qnQXIK4RXSSgBjZz45w2", "label": "NinthCau...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1666846840947
200
Jenny
1666846014421
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
25
0
25
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664289831186}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1666846014238
1664322312999
0.010000000000000031
0.5687307213487677
TFXARKwN6BFKxGJzR3pd
{"NO": 555.0938224953705, "YES": 55.09848424406093}
1
will-avs-resolve-the-general-mobili
829.1328220271157
Will @AVS resolve the general mobilization market within a month of its close date?
1673283641136
Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2
cpmm-1
0
2.69099651610703
True
play
YES
public
1664293175077
Jenny
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "label": "AVS"}}, {"text": " resolves the linked market before Jan 31.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673283641136
180
Jenny
1672758189042
0
https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0
10
0
7
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664293175613}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cr...
["manifold-6748e065087e", "predictions-on-predictions"]
0.5
1672520945888
1672758184138
0.93
0.7402963714612278
ZoGJyBuqsyYK8JFvmiI8
{"NO": 16924.23980157696, "YES": 325.1184462254172}
1
will-i-read-a-nonfiction-book-a-day
23436.214478582293
Will I read a nonfiction book a day for a year?
1688443140000
RsTxmWbOpPdMPv1CSDMRE31WwuA2
cpmm-1
0
1.0405899630328768
True
basic
YES
public
1664294370113
Drew Spartz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I committed to reading one nonfiction book per day for 365 days. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm currently on day 87/365. You can follow along here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1688513983469
1120
DrewSpartz
1688709738859
0.8
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgcIrMcvwpkf3AhMUbWz17KCznFJG7CWFehW0NcU6M=s96-c
2
55
0
1
24
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "RsTxmWbOpPdMPv1CSDMRE31WwuA2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664294370611}]
["personal-goals"]
0.13406275184410443
0.5
1688437174458
1688709735073
0.99
0.6017546699505687
LsGXxI7J7mfl5Gqesvk6
{"NO": 280.51945755539015, "YES": 153.9400649968888}
1
will-harry-maguire-be-in-the-starti
509.8768294635601
Will Harry Maguire be in the starting 11 for England's first game of the 2022 World Cup?
1668949200000
JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82
cpmm-1
0
1.5862423244713577
True
play
YES
public
1664294994151
poppinfresh
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if Harry Maguire starts for England in their first game of the 2022 World Cup. That game is scheduled to be against Iran on November 21, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669040444069
200
poppinfresh
1697622884264
0
https://firebasestorage.…2cb-8ca5a02a3bcf
16
0
1
16
[{"name": "2022 FIFA World Cup", "slug": "2022-fifa-world-cup", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "ujdSUUHAKLNPFSj2PTNX", "createdTime": 1664297068322}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "JRjIaIdYFlPWBVyekmAG4JNXUw82", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 16642949947...
["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup", "fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio"]
0.5
1668801421072
1697622883142
0.7335797497384534
0.5000000000000002
fn4gAlZ5O89XOGYvQbkX
{"NO": 238.04761428476166, "YES": 42.0084025208403}
0
will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-6adabee32877
180.93177886285386
Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings 6 of 7 times AND achieve my Emile bedtime goal this week? (570cal/45min/11:55pmx4)
1664466976439
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
cpmm-1
0
3.1374652255661437
True
play
NO
public
1664297493587
Charlie
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In bed by 11:55pm 4 times. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Move goal: 570cal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exercise goal: 45min", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664466976439
100
Charlie
1664399643405
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
2
0
2
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664297494152}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm",...
["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"]
0.5
1664399643320
0.8500000000000001
nUAYau8CbldGipjgXBhT
which-country-is-primarily-responsi
42284.42879161759
Which country is primarily responsible for the Nord Stream attack? (IF there is a consensus at close)
1678942740000
iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.617620884296487
True
basic
CANCEL
public
1664299255255
Nicholas Charette
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which country is primarily responsible for the recent attack on Nordstream 1 and 2? Resolves to the consensus as of March 31st 2023. This will only resolve to one answer, and if multiple answers are applicable I will choose the 'best' answer (most ...
MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681430050206
6100.000000000006
NicholasCharette73b6
1681503095301
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmV6grDYXyOY8RNnbUl5nbd8xBKy4UKgQYnNZLn=s96-c
0
170
0
ANYONE
[{"id": "bce9dcb5e961", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.004775055797715683, "userId": "iXe4dgGJeehxdnxDDjXpOXrErPg1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.3827528430601257, "textFts": "", "contractId": "nUAYau8CbldGipjgXBhT", "createdTime": 1664299255941, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0...
6
157
[{"name": "Nord Stream", "slug": "nord-stream", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "3j7Zk1VAOzn5WyA8kMkY", "createdTime": 1664653416614}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664653414294}, {"name": "Ukraine", "sl...
["world-default", "russia", "ukraine", "wars", "nord-stream", "ukrainerussia-war"]
1678932857010
1681503093070
False
True
0.6274464591510558
2KRoafJZgA7dpGR8AwI4
{"NO": 1840.3953632610792, "YES": 18.712861291300158}
1
will-consensus-reporting-be-that-no
3213.467672643177
Will consensus reporting be that Nord Stream was deliberately attacked on 9/26, by the end of the year?
1669748927216
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
4.118141456289234
True
play
YES
public
1664301489070
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2022, the consensus reporting among reliable media publications is that the Nord Stream pipelines were deliberately attacked on 9/26. Resolves NO if the consensus reporting is that the event was something other than a ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1669748927216
120
jack
1668879319385
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
22
0
18
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664652680230}, {"name": "Nord Stream", "slug": "nord-stream", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "3j7Zk1VAOzn5WyA8kMkY", "createdTime": 1664652672835}, {"name": "Rus...
["ukraine", "russia", "nord-stream", "world-default", "global-macro"]
0.5
1668879319216
1668878628316
0.9939989531459881
0.5
K0bhWQt5x0UNeThQIiwt
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
abc-does-not-call-control-of-the-ho
0
(ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Democrats)
1664302180997
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664302041005
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Resolves true iff this market is closed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664302180997
100
MarketManagerBot
1664302041005
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
0
0
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
447RQRaeAR9mH2fwJE5A
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
abc-does-not-call-control-of-the-ho-316c3582602e
0
(ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Republicans)
1664302188354
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
2.7725887222397816
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664302047078
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Resolves true iff this market is closed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664302188354
100
MarketManagerBot
1664302047078
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
0
0
1
0.5
0.5
0.5922832683941255
wZ88XXRla9mG520F7MW2
{"NO": 216.74267586056953, "YES": 96.48287751386744}
0
will-the-9922-generation-of-porsche
278.9847240664449
Will the 992.2 generation of Porsche 911 have a hybrid trim?
1685689140000
Lmpp0e3FyBOmQ181RoJyPNohyeH3
cpmm-1
0
2.384908397587898
True
play
NO
public
1664302340736
Jennifer Zhou
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 992.2 is rumored to be announced next April. Will we get a hybrid 911?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there's a next generation but it's not called 992.2 then this question applies to ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1686553671250
140
jennifer
1696513139865
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxwxJL4fjsSnS6wwDxEcm8qRs30s923dmUHkdDS=s96-c
8
0
3
7
0.5
1683476989869
1696513138165
0.77
0.3099012641242466
5okpGFktTaUWFAoKGIbo
{"NO": 55.06800611207114, "YES": 965.5022026432674}
0
abc-does-not-call-control-of-the-ho-9b981d9abcc2
2111.5533906209516
(ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Democrats)
1668659514039
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
3.4835351087054907
True
play
NO
public
1664302376272
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Resolves true iff this market is closed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668659514039
200
MarketManagerBot
1668456780219
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
13
0
14
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1664303027550}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664303020452...
["olivia", "derivative-markets", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1668456780045
1668385051885
0.810224236230534
KUFt1b1NBhnZbxXkV95R
{"NO": 9635.93789726011, "YES": 31.087355945893705}
1
abc-does-not-call-control-of-the-ho-4461833ee26f
11541.689114620844
(ABC does not call control of the House by midnight PT on election day) == (control will go to Republicans)
1668972361135
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
5.688347117214699
True
play
YES
public
1664302383604
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "- Resolves true iff this market is closed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668972361135
200
MarketManagerBot
1668972308338
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
14
0
13
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668790837639}, {"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1664302...
["olivia", "derivative-markets", "politics-default", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "please-resolve", "us-2022-midterms"]
0.5
1668972308183
1668972291697
0.9992449125411922
0.3751410231916521
OWJKZOug9gyCtaoUH2dP
{"NO": 106.19375600863636, "YES": 1384.4682921668616}
0
will-lean-have-proved-the-most-theo
1591.7325842404273
Will Lean have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by beginning of 2024?
1704095940000
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
cpmm-1
0
1.6369983871478764
True
play
NO
public
1664302794484
Bolton Bailey
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if, on December 31st 2023, Lean (or Lean 4) is at the top of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the list of theorem provers maintained on Freek's website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cs.ru...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704126314310
300
BoltonBailey
1704126314703
0
https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103
21
0
1
10
[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664302802968}, {"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1664302794933}, {"n...
["mathematics", "technology-default", "the-lean-theorem-prover", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]
0.5
1704058144060
1702299304858
0.04
uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
0.15236411134127364
lKXegZqXC5nuvWq7Sdxx
{"NO": 145.94877702187796, "YES": 2927.024850337704}
0.008883256659772297
amplified-odds-100x-will-ukrainian
4425.099412846417
AMPLIFIED ODDS 100x: Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?
1673110799000
k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2
cpmm-1
0
3.4647667696898696
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664306043899
Olivia's Market Manager Bot
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, treat NO as if it is 100x less likely. Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability):", "type": ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1681843739455
280
MarketManagerBot
1681843736106
0
https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e
22
0
21
18
[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664306238129}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664306233368}, {"name": "World", "slug": "...
["olivia", "wars", "world-default", "ukraine", "russia", "global-macro", "amplified-odds", "please-resolve"]
0.5
1673098526569
1681843733634
0.01
0.5000000000000009
kzzUvv36GTZ8augNaavE
{"NO": 417.98905004670485, "YES": 23.924071692506516}
1
will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-63785551a35f
2426.094334251841
Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.30 on September 28, 2022?
1664391600000
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
cpmm-1
0
3.718565568301889
True
play
YES
public
1664308010061
Predictor 🔥
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664395246254
100
Predictor
1664386151688
0
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
11
0
1
9
[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1664308010575}]
["wall-street-bets"]
0.5
1664386151486
0.9458624998543834
0.3761814780387489
3kCmeMplUBLm2uvyqFrZ
{"NO": 63.79189990038375, "YES": 844.7355291101832}
0
will-apple-announce-new-apple-silic
3862.991930823605
Will apple announce new apple silicon macs before the end of 2022?
1672559940000
T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3
cpmm-1
0
2.686039717888489
True
play
NO
public
1664310839166
Passion Fruit
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1673288632491
220
PassionFruit
1673288633790
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c
11
0
2
9
[{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664310839635}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664310861816}]
["apple", "technology-default"]
0.5
1672319094449
1673288629874
0.04
0.700929250954028
5E7NAdauc6a4pHeD4nui
{"NO": 830.8801926028839, "YES": 87.42545552783506}
1
will-the-dart-missions-momentum-enh
1234.304305032313
Will the DART mission's momentum enhancement factor be measured at >2?
1672549140000
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
2.7120153281520474
True
play
YES
public
1664311574941
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Asteroid_Redirection_Test", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672727776654
200
jack
1671577311473
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
11
0
1
10
[{"name": "Science", "slug": "science-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "XMhZ5LbQoLMZiOpQJRnj", "createdTime": 1664311575471}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664311582775}]
["science-default", "space"]
0.5
1671577311329
1671573631956
0.96
0.5000000000000013
TSZyk4BXzK3sFElU7SBQ
{"NO": 85.09629433967528, "YES": 117.51393027859984}
0.41999999999999993
does-this-kind-of-pay-to-vote-poll
1361.3190550845086
Does this kind of "pay to vote" poll effectively solve the problems of other polling strategies on Manifold?
1664942400000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
2.449569466550138
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664312180224
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lots of people create polls on Manifold. They're usually one of two types, both of which have problems:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content":...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664995627449
100
IsaacKing
1664995867247
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
1
13
0
1
16
[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664312180837}]
["manifold-6748e065087e"]
0.5
1664863176550
1664995864478
0.42
0.15399548786650516
YqSeFPNz8EUDHtgm61H6
{"NO": 601.5803186965035, "YES": 5448.51588339413}
0
will-bitcoin-price-fall-under-15k-i
14776.199594224827
Will Bitcoin price fall under $15K in 2022?
1672531140000
cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2
cpmm-1
0
1.0200681606855362
True
play
NO
public
1664314251063
Marcio Díaz
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672564751811
960
MarcioDiaz
1672559865227
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8qKgUrkN6oCvkfCCXqfvEH2cDiFhofvodtqTjiww=s96-c
7
50
0
1
44
[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "cc4lcnYnlAhLnqlz4I8X5D42QIf2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664314251681}, {"name": "Crypto Prices", "slug": "crypto-prices", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "createdTime": 16733465146...
["crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices"]
0.5
1672527552510
1672559862746
0.02
0.49999999999994116
j0H8X6TlMm1upbdm83wv
{"NO": 6276.868438789274, "YES": 1.5931511226525767}
1
will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca
8448.550521592442
Will Hurricane Ian strengthen to category 4 at landfall?
1664410247481
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.324916698071797
True
play
YES
public
1664314333176
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Hurricane Ian is reported as Category 4 (or higher) at landfall, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Ian is Category 3 but is forecasted to strengthen.", "t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1664410247481
100
jack
1664401023159
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
13
0
12
[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1664314333647}]
["weather"]
0.5
1664401021854
1664394454053
0.9997462513547566
0.5000000000000002
r7YxHyUFbSHAR4S064TV
{"NO": 0.8969121267582523, "YES": 11149.364248361751}
0
hurricane-ian-will-at-least-15-tota
11435.52902687983
(Hurricane Ian) Will at least 15 total inches of rain fall in Tampa from 9/27 to 10/4?
1665103529107
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.311163099925409
True
play
NO
public
1664314677615
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at least 15 total inches of rain fall in Tampa from 9/27 to 10/4 (inclusive), according to data at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/fl/tampa", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665103529107
100
jack
1665103525264
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
15
0
14
[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1664314678016}]
["weather"]
0.5
1665103525145
1664919767236
0.007512932524946803
0.41325056871574317
Zt15h5iYr3IdiJfEgMuR
{"NO": 125.89962640254583, "YES": 564.4034722488007}
0.13577569191518482
conditional-on-a-third-party-allowi
1068.165314980008
Conditional on a third party allowing users to cash out their mana for real money, will someone get into legal trouble over it?
1704085200000
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
cpmm-1
0
1.6926587565968223
True
play
CANCEL
public
1664315352169
Isaac King
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A few people have talked about instituting a way to exchange mana for real money, such as here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/Nils/will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-ma...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1704241099920
260
IsaacKing
1704241100095
0
https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc
2
19
0
1
14
[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703123304402}, {"name": "Barcalona", "slug": "barcalona", "groupId": "7f0a1921-3916-4c3a-97d8-eaba883d6d78", "createdTime": 1703708483416}]
["new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]
0.5
1684410273225
1703014382756
0.14
y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2
0.8686815176224324
LD68j9Yycj6IqTPWHo0O
{"NO": 2951.979374786207, "YES": 845.2308213434636}
1
will-mike-lee-win-the-2022-utah-sen
6960.523755769036
Will Mike Lee win the 2022 Utah Senate election?
1667969940000
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
0
0.8898636264223563
True
basic
YES
public
1664315690263
SG
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1668012576664
1040
SG
1667968622878
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
51
0
1
46
[{"name": "US 2022 Elections", "slug": "us-2022-elections", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "MQJlM8CKTiJHD3HcyW0C", "createdTime": 1664315830546}, {"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 166...
["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms", "us-2022-elections"]
0.5
1667968622737
0.9585117861934319
0.6651478107141426
Q6KqkxvPD5o9uhQfV0lu
{"NO": 346.45667195748376, "YES": 162.96799900813073}
1
will-i-get-over-my-ex-by-the-end-of
217.81528744822043
Will I get over my ex by the end of Feb 14, 2023
1672700714875
0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2
cpmm-1
0
1.8101699543142735
True
play
YES
public
1664322232971
Sinclair Chen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "when I am ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " on inositol (I am not currently)", "type": "text"}]}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672700714875
220
Sinclair
1668130491135
0
https://firebasestorage.…05f-2c822e6eeb32
10
0
10
[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1664322233446}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822553}]
["dating", "sex-and-love"]
0.5
1668130491016
1665286630090
0.81
0.16588700984962004
DXmYSTBjKfLabRohtEat
{"NO": 63.71743856557095, "YES": 1349.2397173812642}
0
will-manifold-let-users-view-someth
2224.9293038894693
Will Manifold let users view something analogous to a "Metaculus Prediction" by April 2023?
1680350146277
Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02
cpmm-1
0
4.753617427968883
True
play
NO
public
1664327921001
Andy Martin
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Metaculus has a feature called the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Metaculus Prediction\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#metaculus-prediction", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1680350240033
160
AndyMartin
1680338591432
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c
16
0
11
[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1664327921442}]
["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"]
0.5
1680338591282
1664414371393
0.01
0.17772694963077063
euQ9kg8TFcwDX7TMRpzI
{"NO": 66.80786169024466, "YES": 1177.8721871645284}
0
will-the-us-strategic-petroleum-res
1686.046160201037
Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve drop below 330 million barrels before the end of 2022?
1672466340000
absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52
cpmm-1
0
4.864533002879284
True
play
NO
public
1664328528288
Joe Brenton
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Weekly US Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " drops below 330 million barrels for any week ending value reported for 2022 ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672581723203
160
JoeBrenton
1672581933876
0
https://firebasestorage.…a58-3b7a49276e37
12
0
1
10
[{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1664328653091}]
["energy"]
0.5
1672463476572
1672581931931
0.01
0.2917799429846427
PA29KBmy9WKThu9eJBDJ
{"NO": 104.7561424107014, "YES": 945.6876186618622}
0
will-russia-cut-off-all-gas-supplie
1144.6277996150552
Will Russia cut off all gas supplies to EU countries during 2022?
1672491540000
XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2
cpmm-1
0
2.4388134378809787
True
play
NO
public
1664328875509
Keepcalmandchill
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672538290020
220
Keepcalmandchill
1672464015006
0
https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de
13
0
1
13
[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664328876079}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225884}]
["russia", "ukrainerussia-war"]
0.5
1672464014877
False
0.04
0.07423982196077797
uD6UIarrpeBp1k4mHj2a
{"NO": 164.46957637418294, "YES": 6372.191325731056}
0
will-janet-yellen-leave-the-office
9672.799021367682
Will Janet Yellen leave the office of Treasury Secretary by April 2023?
1682999520339
YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23
cpmm-1
0
5.411543000318801
True
play
NO
public
1664331315844
Jack
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of April 2023, Janet Yellen no longer is Treasury Secretary. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.axios.com/2022/09/28/janet-yellen-treasury-mid...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1682999520339
280
jack
1682914956902
0
https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096
18
0
8
[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664331316380}]
["us-politics"]
0.5
1682914956811
1664333473468
0
0.2770940020057511
neNmahGv3bbtJZ2fdvD6
{"NO": 100.72677266874567, "YES": 507.75901256082204}
0
will-i-run-at-least-5km-at-a-430-mi
390.35464040339394
Will I run at least 5km at a 4:30 min/km pace before 2023?
1672491540000
zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012
cpmm-1
0
2.7371233176818945
True
play
NO
public
1664332147683
Galen
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've recently started running more frequently. As a result, I've started running slightly faster. A log of my runs (along with distance in kilometres, and pace in minutes per km) is available here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://galen.me/data...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1672629880828
180
galen
1672418759251
0
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgalen%2FKg_aEVk_EB.32?alt=media&token=320f608e-2d2b-4b84-9825-8397d2b7dfd1
9
0
1
10
[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664332148281}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "zf2MCcDHA1fdEt4WFkAwTUp4W012", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1672091593629}]
["personal-goals", "free-money"]
0.5
1672418759106
1666679191557
0.07
0.35243816755933555
uzcmE1jRGm57dS6mKV5v
{"NO": 262.4734820219275, "YES": 4794.373875535564}
0
will-usdcny-breaks-75-before-the-en
5883.638342622153
Will USD/CNY breaks 7.5 before the end of Q1 2023?
1680278340000
JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33
cpmm-1
0
0.947787323838285
True
play
NO
public
1664332552155
Stormtrooper TK-293
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.5000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a “mo...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1697233025104
860
stormtk293
1697233037811
0
https://firebasestorage.…ca6-a1710c873245
22
0
40
9
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1664332552588}]
["china"]
0.5
1680277832573
1697233036991
0.03