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0.3542796711291902 | J3oqO7p9iRPaVg3KfDgX | {"NO": 64.9180180538639, "YES": 402.31746299401465} | 0 | will-mattp-decide-any-of-my-markets-e61ca764273d | 609.5124355568364 | Will MattP decide any of my markets were resolved "dishonorably" in 2022? If so, how many? | 1673153940000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.9753904161934672 | True | play | MKT | public | 1664336110141 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to the number of markets created by me that ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2", "label": "MattP"}}, {"text": " comments had \"dishonorable resolution\" in 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"typ... | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673630525931 | 140 | Jenny | 1673384790430 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | [{"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "createdTime": 1664336110566}, {"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 16643361314... | ["predictions-on-predictions", "fun", "trust", "metamarkets-on-improper-resolution", "insurance"] | 0.5 | 1673120578367 | 1673384786474 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.26596425288369346 | LBvLQOBYVu410EN6Gh0Z | {"NO": 165.09788316070947, "YES": 863.1836902015402} | 0 | will-apple-hold-an-event-in-novembe | 1220.005462838387 | Will apple hold an event in November 2022? | 1666940340000 | T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9298764607765007 | True | play | NO | public | 1664340650141 | Passion Fruit | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669875755266 | 280 | PassionFruit | 1666980907958 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c | 16 | 0 | 6 | 17 | [{"name": "Apple", "slug": "apple", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "OgtvgALKKOXZ2zOSdDih", "createdTime": 1664340681061}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664340685293}] | ["apple", "technology-default"] | 0.5 | 1666931279242 | 1666980901503 | 0.06481030291147793 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14363363378279057 | 9ExeIiUIwqTVcHh6Ubf9 | {"NO": 76.90720946049441, "YES": 2497.3420256934005} | 0 | will-edward-snowden-get-drafted-to | 2875.0687883088813 | Will Edward Snowden get drafted to Russian Army by January 1? | 1672613940000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.645916634782845 | True | play | NO | public | 1664362719587 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\", if by January 1 2023, (according to Russian official sources or the general consensus of global media reports) Russian citizen Edward Snowden joins Russian Army as a part of partial mobilisation, general mobil... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672653751259 | 180 | itsTomekK | 1672631147890 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 0 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 23 | [{"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1668708877097}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664362720254}, {... | ["world-default", "tomeks-specials", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672597441899 | 1672631145649 | False | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AgkPGhJ8sJspbSIL3Wl3 | who-will-win-2022-brazilian-preside | 6758.193931792472 | Who will win 2022 Brazilian presidential election? | 1667170740000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.64038323894519 | True | play | 11d7709c4597 | public | 1664364377723 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General elections are scheduled to be held on October 2 2022 in Brazil to elect the President. A runoff (in case no candidate gets more than 50% of votes) is scheduled for October 30.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667203328572 | 580 | itsTomekK | 1667170306262 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "6ed52b0d9e99", "prob": 0.0026196127272809597, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.016110405498785656, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 6.133808371047827, "textFts": "", "contractId": "AgkPGhJ8sJspbSIL3Wl3", "createdTime": 1664364378468, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Elections: World", "slug": "elections-world", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "w5UI0a5OgD7u18Y4gxJs", "createdTime": 1664364378315}] | ["elections-world"] | 1667170304807 | {"11d7709c4597": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.23956213999208995 | IdQPxWoEENJyu8NvHR9u | {"NO": 939.4563874059719, "YES": 1050.611209539329} | 0.2197870898167534 | will-there-be-a-fire-alarm-for-agi | 2534.038501143649 | Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027? | 1830326400000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.184984201545578 | False | basic | public | 1664364489871 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, a \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "fire alarm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywh... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": -0.011011981445180646, "month": -0.01101198144518073} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7760703379138858, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | IsaacKing | 1719689058036 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 21 | [{"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "aR293Wi2ZOYDxSXcRSD5kggURDg2", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1668067261321}] | ["ai-alignment"] | 0.5 | 1719689054856 | 1685527119295 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.12816423460317217 | ekxehfbcRmrzA31SPnmN | {"NO": 515.9820412069755, "YES": 8383.458199168559} | 0 | will-a-nato-country-claim-article-5 | 18044.867880873175 | Will a NATO country invoke Article 5 by the end of 2022? | 1672536681786 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.395779297675487 | True | basic | NO | public | 1664369867160 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Article 5 is invoked by any NATO member by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 28, 8:58am: Article 5 has been triggered only once in NATO history, by the US on 9... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672536681786 | 1088.3100001876262 | BTE | 1672525988594 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 41 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664370604652}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664370600276}, {"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "glo... | ["global-macro", "nato", "wars", "polymarket"] | 0.5 | 1672525988415 | 1670543010344 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5000000000000001 | Vr5Kvan0RqFd4gNJ2l5b | {"NO": 20.412414523193114, "YES": 489.89794855663496} | 0 | will-elon-musk-say-the-word-twitter | 866.9713904647778 | Will Elon musk say the word “twitter” during his main talk at AI day | 1664624638145 | MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1484294407324716 | True | play | NO | public | 1664375848572 | Heaffey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664624638145 | 100 | Heaffey | 1664624574495 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpUsV_FsERh3qn-8uHd-1Z847JkXZrYBJlPNZ0Rzg=s96-c | 21 | 0 | 18 | [{"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "userId": "MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1664375848956}, {"name": "Tesla AI Day", "slug": "tesla-ai-day", "userId": "raxx5Nmy2xRaFA80a3FTv0UzQHD3", "groupId": "e6qB5v9gYt25m6RoOyWW", "createdTime": 1664445739713}... | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla-ai-day"] | 0.5 | 1664624574340 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kzpqY5gktwuPPnytkUX0 | which-driver-will-start-from-pole-p | 305 | Which driver will start from pole position in the 2022 Singapore F1 Grand Prix? | 1664629200000 | ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.766695987472906 | True | play | ed58ed30e67c | public | 1664377414809 | Leo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664741380184 | 480.00000000000006 | Leo | 1710207076685 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GivexMI_o1GUS5sHEL83jdVQ0lLGcxebIbBC9qT=s96-c | 6 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "cd0c2acf266b", "prob": 0.10749798441279229, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 3.979464206503944, "userId": "ZLq88UqSFxQ58axdhhcCxcepJBJ3", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 33.039501574498985, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kzpqY5gktwuPPnytkUX0", "createdTime": 1664377415559, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🏟️ Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi"}, {"name": "Motorsports", "slug": "motorsports", "groupId": "eed75a10-7bc2-40e7-a89f-0d4f5aaecd33"}] | ["world-default", "sports-default", "motorsports"] | 1664624145723 | {"ed58ed30e67c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.265371322942071 | zPamwyf4A0lTsUnTfLVy | {"NO": 484.6640255711652, "YES": 3803.0223973251873} | 0 | will-avatar-2-gain-9-or-more-oscar | 5567.156320391036 | Will "Avatar: The Way of Water" gain 9 or more Oscar nominations? | 1674575071402 | ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7421949672670438 | True | play | NO | public | 1664377990252 | Gunne | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The original \"Avatar\" movie released in 2009 got 9 academy award nominations of which it won 3. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The theatrical relase of its sequel \"Avatar: The Way of Water\" is planned for Dece... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674575071402 | 920 | Gunneone | 1674575324240 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjcE6LJtZHT6ux-SyRkITOlJbypw9tv1Nf0p5SBTQ=s96-c | 3 | 57 | 0 | 49 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664443614248}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "ZdGhVVOdZqX819u7TF4k046W2e92", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 16644... | ["movies", "entertainment", "culture-default", "oscars-2023"] | 0.5 | 1674574042990 | 1674575319885 | 0.04 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.09650312917497121 | BxR92FUQFnoKp2NJkuQS | {"NO": 793.7756479511697, "YES": 1357.900390015612} | 0.05876804764538294 | will-the-value-of-ether-and-bitcoin | 2787.2022823934335 | Will the value of 1 Ether and 1 Bitcoin hit parity by the end of 2025? | 1767243540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.416651492923238 | False | basic | public | 1664378482970 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the value of 1 ETH = 1 BTC at any point between now and the end of 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recent updates to the Ethereum blockchain away from Proof of Work to P... | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.0023292470857651584} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.20883999092973907, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BTE | 1719301006561 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 22 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664403158069}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664378483395... | ["crypto-speculation", "global-macro", "crypto-prices"] | 0.5 | 1719301003533 | 1664636722960 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5 | GO79Dg8984TMVn9SRIDh | {"NO": 200, "YES": 50} | 1 | will-i-meet-with-a-student-or-can-i | 100 | Will I meet with a student (or can I come up with an excuse) | 1664379111804 | qznjQbyd1FfTyrkOuOMduFN4g4p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.0081547935525466 | True | play | YES | public | 1664378679958 | Annalise Norling | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if i meet with my student, resolve yes", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664379111804 | 100 | AnnaliseNorling | 1664378985644 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmk2fy_UFPQlvMqSEAocrxfwVsg-MfG4aXEAAGIk=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1664378985335 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49217385373527067 | RUabTM4FfThaIog7UjJ6 | {"NO": 1120.6311706506533, "YES": 881.318187249279} | 0.5520412160386201 | will-sota-on-math-in-sep-2024-utili | 1103.1911482045512 | Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure? | 1727755140000 | skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.590855515374466 | False | basic | public | 1664378957758 | Eli Lifland | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jeremy Gillen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jeremy-gillen", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": -1.1102230246251565e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.18731749363579192, "platformFee": 0.18731749363579192, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | EliLifland | 1716058210992 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "skGf6ln62qPPMIaxpRZG8JH9wbJ3", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664378958280}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1716058207654 | 1681244896788 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.49999999999999994 | hlyXBDl6KA5UNvX1SyDo | {"NO": 400, "YES": 25} | 1 | will-i-reschedule-the-student-to-a | 300 | Will I reschedule the student to a zoom | 1664379576836 | qznjQbyd1FfTyrkOuOMduFN4g4p1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.665162927496617 | True | play | YES | public | 1664379532304 | Annalise Norling | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "yes if yes", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664379576836 | 100 | AnnaliseNorling | 1664379546450 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmk2fy_UFPQlvMqSEAocrxfwVsg-MfG4aXEAAGIk=s96-c | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1664379546283 | 0.9411764705882352 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | CsywIHo8s5MfcxpivbGO | {"NO": 20.276602888514294, "YES": 493.1792596118007} | 0 | will-there-be-a-planecrash-tag-in-w | 1655.7404323334865 | Will there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10? | 1665471540000 | QLM2gjvggcXSuBy7tLGJFpJK6Gf1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.9299007769383962 | True | play | NO | public | 1664379890280 | KD89042 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A proxy for \"when will the plot move forward in planecrash\"", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1667076837108 | 100 | KD89042 | 1667076952678 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgVg64p67Nb5mlfaT0IXmdc1G-RYLw1t7A3B-Wg7Q=s96-c | 25 | 0 | 4 | 25 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "hdiCQZ7htTOPDE3G2eRvFWlDJy43", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1664384031836}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666826907373}] | ["glowfic", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1665454961965 | 1667076915284 | 0.039490449655742076 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.93419917281308 | BuPYptfa3X5vqCykfXuo | {"NO": 5548.407059945521, "YES": 516.1178323797421} | 1 | beeminder-2099 | 9481.71130247816 | Will it be a Pareto improvement to change Beeminder goals' default end date to 2099-12-31? | 1674205200000 | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.582896913810619 | True | play | YES | public | 1664381003349 | Daniel Reeves | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most Beeminder goals are open-ended. But we haven't implemented that, we just default to 10 years in the future as an approximation to an ongoing goal. Which is bad and we have a bigger overhaul planned, but this is about a tiny change that might h... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1674234481990 | 660 | dreev | 1674194398913 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 11 | [{"name": "Beeminder", "slug": "beeminder", "userId": "5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2", "groupId": "TBLLIYRPP9YImVXqKhri", "createdTime": 1664381003841}, {"name": "Self-resolving", "slug": "selfresolving", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "9cUlgUS6fDN3LIyavEam", "createdTime": 1665791764379}] | ["beeminder", "selfresolving"] | 0.5 | 1674194398718 | 1673037651369 | 0.99 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.48759115981150514 | HYwrdcy1ecEFWJBy0MeG | {"NO": 90.23024002432838, "YES": 271.8902741736532} | 0 | will-ctlcsm-still-be-following-mani | 229.63410055290817 | Will ctlcsm still be following @ManifoldMarkets on Twitter in 3 months? | 1672156885000 | QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.140935922004971 | True | play | NO | public | 1664381042721 | Austin F2P2 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lol", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673295489744 | 160 | AustinF2P2 | 1672151808637 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0.5 | 1672151808451 | 1671939990195 | 0.24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7027874635938091 | qf4z5l1cBMABx1M9YV5P | {"NO": 837.6638692601475, "YES": 145.43758439316355} | 1 | will-pete-davidson-date-emily-rataj | 3835.576158807626 | Will Pete Davidson date Emily Ratajkowski? | 1669831428920 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.921145884976546 | True | play | YES | public | 1664382850918 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the pair is reported to go on any dates before April 1 2023, NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Both ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669831428920 | 300 | FRCassarino | 1669831425033 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 15 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1669730742096}, {"name": "Sex and love", "slug": "sex-and-love", "userId": "mowZ7T5LBUQuy5CWgctdHMkLo8J3", "groupId": "3syjPCC7PxE5KurTiTT3", "createdTime": 1666821822552}, {... | ["entertainment", "celebrities", "fun", "sex-and-love", "please-resolve", "dating"] | 0.5 | 1669737538304 | 1669831422388 | 0.9315965716632906 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.513111676913508 | XKF7KjulJkIWfSHqTJyi | {"NO": 1095.1869951015801, "YES": 19.832343791583867} | 1 | will-hurricane-ian-be-reclassified | 1950.9987911571154 | Will Hurricane Ian be reclassified as category 5 based on NHC reanalysis? | 1680698628318 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.8647291047442933 | True | play | YES | public | 1664422065843 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by 7/1/2023, NHC reclassifies Hurricane Ian as Category 5 based on reanalysis. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(If Hurricane Ian simply strengthens to Category 5 ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1680698628318 | 140 | jack | 1680698131645 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 9 | [{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1664422066270}, {"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1664422710053}] | ["weather", "climate"] | 0.5 | 1680698130733 | 1680698092360 | 0.98 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5362787373196495 | B01Lkc43BYX283qRYqK3 | {"NO": 264.4952333280838, "YES": 127.99948355259804} | 0 | will-the-value-of-the-freightos-bal | 399.174237383927 | Will the value of the Freightos Baltic Index: Global Container Freight Index for December 2, 2022 be less than $2,500? | 1669957140000 | 4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7725871930029742 | True | play | NO | public | 1664423828188 | belikewater | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Global shipping costs rose dramatically during the first and second years of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, as the shipping industry was unable to keep up with large shifts in purchasing patterns. Global shipping costs peaked in September 2021 and have t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670039959698 | 180 | belikewater | 1669944690232 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664423828916}] | ["economics-default"] | 0.5 | 1669944690051 | 0.7049885544932596 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.14020008107000667 | RZCx9kMLB7inU66jTN7o | {"NO": 935.2560667415601, "YES": 1183.070976021717} | 0.11418606501229984 | will-russia-be-classified-as-a-flaw | 297.9355740222053 | Will Russia be classified as a "flawed democracy" by 2030? | 1938643140000 | H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.952522178133309 | False | basic | public | 1664428879620 | Andrew G | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Russia reaches a 6.00 Democracy Index according to the Economist's 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030 reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": ... | BINARY | {"day": -1.5265566588595902e-16, "week": -1.5265566588595902e-16, "month": -1.5265566588595902e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | AndrewG | 1711222368890 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664428880449}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226728}] | ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.09613893695084469 | 0.5 | 1711222365550 | 1707983673424 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7647225996075323 | VcRDkmYr1N1F19ZksjRW | {"NO": 2771.415399436267, "YES": 1123.0696716028333} | 1 | will-there-be-a-successful-attack-o | 13547.72932523639 | Will there be a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, or telecommunications infrastructure by February 2023? | 1675121376910 | rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.4088953630066048 | True | basic | YES | public | 1664432414508 | Marlon K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ukraine and the European part of Russia excluded. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The answer to this question is \"Yes\" if there has been a successful attack on European or U.S. energy, water, power, or ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675121376910 | 1480 | MarlonK | 1675121387745 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c | 3 | 82 | 0 | 64 | [{"name": "Terrorism", "slug": "terrorism", "userId": "4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2", "groupId": "dWSuGqoMKLTROX8ar0Fz", "createdTime": 1670541373334}, {"name": "Energy Crisis", "slug": "energy-crisis", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "1hx6HrZb8D9nQsTWDpKM", "createdTime": 1664641294361}, {"name": ... | ["infrastructure", "geopolitics", "energy", "wars", "energy-crisis", "terrorism", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1674580015574 | 1675121385704 | 0.89 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | q1DOYATdGFCF72fg9WXA | {"NO": 12.041339578877269, "YES": 830.4723851108585} | 0 | will-china-vote-to-condemn-any-new | 834.3141706303006 | Will China vote to condemn any new Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory at the United Nations during 2022? | 1672491540000 | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.6884398655364325 | True | play | NO | public | 1664487914257 | Keepcalmandchill | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672538232117 | 100 | Keepcalmandchill | 1667246547114 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.5 | 1667246547001 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.222069422338891 | G12FJQpkSAOkbO4ubSbz | {"NO": 54.216774694649764, "YES": 740.5969806164615} | 0 | will-manifold-markets-support-multi | 1349.9109357379193 | Will Manifold Markets let me create multiple accounts with a single google account in 2022? | 1672549140000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.8702078881686255 | True | play | NO | public | 1664490362854 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if it is possible to create multiple Manifold accounts with a single Google account.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves N/A if the following market resolves YES:"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672605054182 | 140 | Jenny | 1672288353134 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1664490363364}] | ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"] | 0.5 | 1672288352982 | 1664546755307 | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.2526452046907816 | VHa3mYPaMRsAjzeGDPOz | {"NO": 90.74861047127715, "YES": 714.7499014973578} | 0 | will-kalshi-have-more-than-1000-act | 687.6586754044042 | Will Kalshi have more than 1000 active markets by the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.1155576550641686 | True | play | NO | public | 1664491848097 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At any point. ", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704226693310 | 180 | Gigacasting | 1704226693558 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736969001}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "... | ["ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1699237104512 | 1704226688067 | 0.04 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 |
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