CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.24751205833469053

ZHmJ51msAlVEzifYLWTC

{"NO": 82.20857719491477, "YES": 791.5457569283607}

0

will-any-nfl-game-in-weeks-47-end-i

1129.391617844708

Will any NFL game in Weeks 4-7 end in a tie?

1666681140000

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

3.3736712448550943

True

play

NO

public

1664492250312

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as YES if any of the NFL games scheduled to take place from 9/29 to 10/24 (Weeks 4 through 7) ends in a tie.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666685847445

180

LukeW

1666671948457

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

12

0

1

11

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664492250947}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181982981}]

["sports-default", "nfl"]

0.5

1666671947130

1664494421314

False

0.033033114676248275

0.4999999999999998

Mnln8WE7bLFXJFV0a8JX

{"NO": 36.92744729379984, "YES": 270.80128015453187}

0

will-any-team-be-shutout-in-nfl-wee

271.50592479243033

Will any team be shutout in NFL Week 4?

1664849490061

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

3.0351514211699935

True

play

NO

public

1664493863623

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves as YES if and only if a team scores 0 points in a game during NFL Week 4.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664849490061

100

LukeW

1664848351585

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

6

0

6

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664493864172}, {"name": "NFL", "slug": "nfl", "groupId": "TNQwmbE5p6dnKx2e6Qlp", "createdTime": 1691181982923}]

["sports-default", "nfl"]

0.5

1664848349258

False

0.12000000000000002

0.5000000000000001

BOkT1rnnC0uTrEbXHZi4

{"NO": 43.64357804719849, "YES": 229.12878474779208}

0

will-any-of-these-occur-during-tesl

214.7985692460901

Will any of these occur during Tesla AI Day?

1664600340000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.9685722705542386

True

play

NO

public

1664493888098

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Elon Musk asks the Optimus robot to \"jump\" during a live demo at AI Day, will the robot ask Musk \"how high?\" before jumping?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "23%", "type": "text"}]...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664669822795

100

Gigacasting

1710451902855

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

6

0

1

7

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1664589017804

1664494569895

False

0.16000000000000006

0.2845556608656074

zsHN4Sb8hdKFPoH6j1As

{"NO": 876.4830646103486, "YES": 1311.4227207566628}

0.21000000000000005

will-spacex-launch-a-mission-to-hub

1064.1693628939518

Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026

1767243600000

v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2

cpmm-1

0

9.625769650908598

False

basic

public

1664495377247

Emma

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/business/spacex-hubble-space-telescope-nasa-polaris-mission-scn/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/29/business/spacex-hubble-space-telescope-nasa-pol...

BINARY

{"day": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "week": -2.7755575615628914e-17, "month": -0.028842607974551654}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.4296286917286105, "platformFee": 5.128300930267222, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

EmmaCasey

1718460876660

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnNiLMID0RouoQZNtB8eICvHmGokGFeOAL3SBjD=s96-c

19

0

13

[{"name": "Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh", "createdTime": 1665427650832}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "v81t8p54XedlMnDGBi2d4k0AUDt2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664495377951}, {"name": "Science", "slug": "sc...

["space", "spacex", "science-default"]

0.5

1718460873600

0.22284814076866483

PFzLIB8fJLFMiTSjPytw

{"NO": 77.27079064199606, "YES": 2193.5809980371087}

0

will-trump-say-he-regrets-the-speci

3105.4501671192247

Will Trump say he regrets the Special Master appointment?

1673240340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.7212398599961127

True

play

NO

public

1664496764548

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a comment in this market links to a Trump statement expressing regret about the appointment of Special Master Raymond Dearie, as judged by myself in consultation with other commenters here, by 1 month after the appointment ends. Res...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673395862956

200

jack

1673239303728

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

1

17

0

2

14

[{"name": "MAGA-land", "slug": "magaland", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "EWgcYV1JYWP19dE3BZCb", "createdTime": 1664496765104}, {"name": "Donald Trump", "slug": "donald-trump", "groupId": "cEzcLXuitr6o4VPI01Q1", "createdTime": 1691181891924}]

["magaland", "donald-trump"]

0.5

1673239303595

1673210463251

False

0.01

0.48392486993443723

xtHA2ylyUrJxGhnNV2GS

{"NO": 102.50507867408427, "YES": 141.20465989133226}

1

will-morbius-be-generally-considere

219.23627440182608

Will Morbius be generally considered the Meme of the year 2022, Either Officially or Unofficially?

1675227540000

3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2

cpmm-1

0

2.4444532388268154

True

play

YES

public

1664497238743

Chizardium

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am not sure if there is an officially designated meme of the year every year, so I am basing this off of if Morbius will be the general consensus a month into 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675434660710

120

Chizardium

1675434685663

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff0-ebe348084fa9

8

0

1

7

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "3wrfrWUbM7PbIJGqoZDEb5UlDRC2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664497239289}]

["fun"]

0.5

1674994919366

1675434683959

0.41

0.5000000000000001

K8srtZmvMk4JMLdKeVtU

{"NO": 120, "YES": 83.33333333333333}

0.5901639344262296

will-parag-be-fired-by-the-end-of-2

20

Will Parag be fired by the end of 2023?

1664500591237

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.78918632786917

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664498909860

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1575598387335901190"}}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664500591237

100

Gigacasting

1710451915480

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

0

1

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1664499377007

0.5901639344262296

0.5000000000000002

8v7bm3g4UNp3LJ2v20y5

{"NO": 5.048402219326135, "YES": 1980.8247373235213}

0

will-teslas-optimus-robot-make-a-cl

3161.0272160812033

Will Tesla’s Optimus robot make a ‘Claude Shannon-style’ entrance, juggling while riding a unicycle?

1664588002318

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.537602531215866

True

play

NO

public

1664500843250

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://youtu.be/thW3PI1Mfbk", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664588002318

367.9682537434431

BTE

1710451914079

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

14

0

12

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Tesla AI Day", "slug": "tesla-ai-day", "groupId": "e6qB5v9gYt25m6RoOyWW"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla-ai-day"]

0.5

1664587994014

0.04132038710693189

0.3511680039472338

aI9MfL81D3YGn9iOvZfF

{"NO": 376.1592763745793, "YES": 7368.5436847516585}

0

will-chemical-weapons-be-used-in-uk

16550.82260434228

Will chemical weapons be used in Ukraine by the end of 2023?

1709078465259

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0.009860374947316248

0.6920215277067387

True

basic

NO

public

1664500845233

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[left open while waiting for the resolution criteria below - please read the entire description before betting]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does not need to le...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1709078465259

1160

AndyMartin

1709119253672

1.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

1

76

0

1

19

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664500845661}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222298}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "sl...

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.13872183610975006

0.5

1709058791500

1709119251722

False

0.03

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

0.19809851645728463

s2JLEmn8RZ7PjtPIbeh7

{"NO": 84.16369859025244, "YES": 1068.2539361577517}

0.019091455282774613

given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine

1432.6681384592937

Given a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?

1680125741387

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

3.8215300707971287

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664501543423

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there IS NOT a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A on 1 March 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, resolves t...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680125741387

180

citrinitas

1671461124204

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

14

0

12

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664504714251}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664501544053}, {"name": "Wars"...

["ukraine", "nuclear-risk", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1671461124092

False

0.02

0.1505771699628487

5J7GWI9LpkM76sXiO10z

{"NO": 542.6550462469014, "YES": 5948.4359987870575}

0

given-no-peace-deal-between-ukraine

7157.908024953747

Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?

1704095940000

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-1

0

1.1428664729991596

True

play

NO

public

1664501627623

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, resolves to the s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705362216603

820

citrinitas

1705362216813

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

24

0

3

16

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664504704775}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664501628246}, {"name": "Wars"...

["ukraine", "nuclear-risk", "wars", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.1171451051918704

0.5

1703535332266

1704100926166

False

0.02

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

0.5000000000000003

jlcErxFtsWX18lnSc7nI

{"NO": 119.95934270593101, "YES": 83.36157713463015}

1

will-i-be-able-to-sing-a-cruel-ange

395.4237607657052

Will I be able to sing "A Cruel Angel's Thesis" by December 31?

1667098379738

U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1

cpmm-1

0

2.2000883108054605

True

play

YES

public

1664502914258

Evelyn

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if, by my own assessment, I am able to sing the song \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "A Cruel Angel's Thesis", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Cruel_Angel%27s_T...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667098379738

100

athenaciara

1666883432822

0

https://firebasestorage.…49f-466ec11b061c

13

0

https://firebasestorage.…edb-eb1a2f815e93

12

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664502934585}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664502914738}, {"n...

["personal-goals", "culture-default", "entertainment"]

0.5

1666883432598

1664594084891

0.59

0.244044625238736

yjJo8WBRW9HBrl6s7VLt

{"NO": 146.71107231611512, "YES": 2315.0086946420997}

0

will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supre

4170.845047646552

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran in 2022?

1672554188666

FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1

cpmm-1

0

2.1856864154892857

True

play

NO

public

1664503637268

Scott Lawrence

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if, at any point between now and January 1st (exclusive; Iran time), Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closely rela...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672554188666

320

ScottLawrence

1672554167410

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7f-18a56a1ee575

43

0

37

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664503637842}, {"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664641525586}]

["world-default", "iran"]

0.5

1672554167240

1664505217591

0.02

0.42463639775944595

pQkzGnP6yiJ4egMtPJjq

{"NO": 173.8747939178916, "YES": 228.9494946245002}

0.359177711961352

conditional-on-at-least-one-nuclear

262.8554280985293

Conditional on at least one nuclear missile being launched by Russia at the USA by the end of 2023, what percentage of warheads will successfully detonate?

1704085200000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

1.6864497007976829

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664503871474

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a lot of speculation about the technological state of Russia's nuclear arsenal, and about what, if any, interception capabilities the USA possesses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thi...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704241170114

200

IsaacKing

1704241170324

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

11

0

1

8

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664503871954}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223400}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions ...

["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barcalona"]

0.5

1684824445550

1670618383265

False

0.36

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

0.12290280622543726

81H2CGI3HsXh2fGQuUCa

{"NO": 933.2070129334439, "YES": 1175.5231819086468}

0.10010436574743832

will-there-be-legally-probable-evid

1432.7619876101621

Will there be legally provable evidence of voter fraud in the 2024 Presidential Election?

1737611940000

2HzQNOVznXRYxph5GJEZEiz63pT2

cpmm-1

0

10.055185731936128

False

basic

public

1664508918137

Anonymouse

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if there is a recognized criminal case of election malfeasance that contributed to at least one electoral vote changing sides.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 29, 10:40pm: ", "type"...

BINARY

{"day": 8.326672684688674e-17, "week": 8.326672684688674e-17, "month": 8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.0036601872432867073, "platformFee": 0.0036601872432867073, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Anonymouse

1715756746377

0

https://firebasestorage.…2f6-c2583d2b3da5

23

0

12

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "2HzQNOVznXRYxph5GJEZEiz63pT2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664508918965}, {"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "c...

["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]

0.5

1715756742778

1664729653422

False

0.2356845887433389

KwrHCsywksEr68jJso7w

{"NO": 954.9698227222003, "YES": 1069.621682289813}

0.21587537756840885

the-next-census-in-2030-will-show-a

1363.3144530471654

The next census in 2030 will show an increase in United States birth rate.

1956635940000

e7fc6X0auFOuV5jw77FyzGHsscD3

cpmm-1

0

9.636808525246368

False

basic

public

1664509220178

Janeaustin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.15697310991604907, "platformFee": 0.15697310991604907, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Janeaustin

1715574056084

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu09o86ewEnfrRCOM0D8glm3dYZEaUTOwehC8tk1=s96-c

1

12

0

8

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "e7fc6X0auFOuV5jw77FyzGHsscD3", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664509264066}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1715574052825

0.6636815648847478

2aQEbxxgStUZBdgvTqnw

{"NO": 476.49683246081713, "YES": 78.6917294359721}

1

will-one-of-my-other-markets-have-a

12997.121123233745

Will one of my other markets have a higher betting volume than my first by June 2023?

1675179365821

HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433

cpmm-1

0

2.567044806579895

True

play

YES

public

1664515532047

Conflux

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I’ve been active on Manifold for about eight months now, yet my highest-volume market, with M$8443 bet, was still my first. To be fair, it was a meta market on whether it would get at least ten traders (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifol...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1675179365821

160

Conflux

1675180834547

0

https://firebasestorage.…cdd-373b64a5cd17

14

0

13

[{"name": "Whale Watching", "slug": "whale-watching", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "5V0GjAyN99OQpb96fwo8", "createdTime": 1664542254464}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "cre...

["whale-watching", "predictions-on-predictions"]

0.5

1675179139740

1675180831160

0.92

0.192831249356555

Qw4XfyB68hIQXmHbJgjZ

{"NO": 68.75295589033085, "YES": 2100.353004229988}

0

sp-500-will-go-below-3000-during-20

2309.598699090775

S&P 500 will go below 3000 during 2022

1672446366279

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

4.714110636183662

True

play

NO

public

1664515866881

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672446366279

180

Keepcalmandchill

1672441139665

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

11

0

9

0.5

1672441139575

1672440437662

0.01

0.2404263531284703

HX4SgWLoH0JXuRWHmV7C

{"NO": 119.97758106810223, "YES": 1859.9509383233801}

0

will-russia-give-a-nuclear-ultimatu

12239.977385008922

Will Russia give a nuclear ultimatum to Ukraine and/or it's Western allies during 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.416637485870398

True

play

NO

public

1664517274176

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any ultimatum demanding some form of response and threatening the use of nuclear weapons counts. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672537973469

260

Keepcalmandchill

1672473373514

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

113

0

1

103

[{"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671065196558}, {"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1671065194874}, {"na...

["russia", "global-macro", "nuclear-risk", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars"]

0.5

1672473369954

1665349479194

0.02

0.748803467346426

SpABStTFq5pnOFogCBWm

{"NO": 12260.721992582416, "YES": 284.98630439162065}

1

will-michael-bennet-win-the-2022-co

13775.665707614615

Will Michael Bennet win the 2022 Colorado senate election?

1667973540000

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

cpmm-1

0

1.2081839724923857

True

play

YES

public

1664518628250

SG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668012593244

900

SG

1667969947983

0

https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967

28

0

1

27

[{"name": "Colorado ", "slug": "colorado", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "4tauc9etIhLT7H6qoTAR", "createdTime": 1664518724341}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664518721891}, {"name": "Poli...

["us-2022-midterms", "politics-default", "us-politics", "colorado", "us-2022-elections"]

0.5

1667969947857

1667962492604

0.9922628596627889

0.16719522773621798

w3bz5QI1AAC92zhU5fpu

{"NO": 684.2285557774013, "YES": 3251.3451242074343}

0

will-gpt4-be-released-by-end-of-yea

6527.206177836888

Will GPT-4 be released by end of year (December 21, 2022)?

1672552740000

1IlGLRI9DHdqSdVAuZXhXmWUv7n1

cpmm-1

0

0.8522382413412779

True

play

NO

public

1664523350217

Joe Brucker

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if OpenAI releases GPT-4 before January 1st 2023, Pacific Time. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. This will be determined via some credible blog post, paper, tweet, or other such media, from the staff of OpenAI.", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674575587047

940

JoeBrucker

1672912081134

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0cr9jv_5Xh2YEcrB4si3DkniHrohQRkqT19OzH=s96-c

52

0

5

43

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "1IlGLRI9DHdqSdVAuZXhXmWUv7n1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664523350800}, {"name": "GPT-4 speculation", "slug": "gpt4-speculation", "userId": "NyPB2flsw6P3H4ScNKjzyilepXH2", "groupId": "SWiC5KtQnc48oWmaoAZA", "createdTime": 1669386904338}]

["ai", "gpt4-speculation"]

0.5

1672119452635

1672912076672

0.04

0.5

9snvz4FCtMcVvqgKDxFz

{"NO": 183.7362248437211, "YES": 54.42584884121578}

1

will-the-spd-receive-the-most-votes

115.25792722426931

Will the SPD receive the most votes in the Lower Saxony state election?

1665179940000

7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2

cpmm-1

0

2.9548373743756504

True

play

YES

public

1664525240471

Nick el Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Final elections results", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665391360817

100

NickelChen

1665173945258

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1664541546938}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664525241374}, {"name": "Centr...

["politics-default", "germany", "central-europe"]

0.5

1665173945044

0.7714755838361762

0.6644982707331514

Rf6qDo3KRVeJcS6i4dHH

{"NO": 333.5486015099499, "YES": 73.97402294290067}

0

will-kineyde-still-be-following-man

308.80217400912227

Will kineyDE still be following @ManifoldMarkets on Twitter in 3 months?

1672300321000

QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33

cpmm-1

0

2.94360079754717

True

play

NO

public

1664525727621

Austin F2P2

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lol", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673295585905

140

AustinF2P2

1672930532529

0

https://firebasestorage.…803-add1221b7343

4

0

3

5

0.5

1672294102064

1672930530705

0.9

0.857417610243075

xeNmLi3fmE7WIlwgpU80

{"NO": 668.5761010248655, "YES": 618.1529456670632}

1

will-terraforms-labs-cofounder-do-k

1116.2350928590708

Will Terraforms Labs co-founder Do Kwon end up behind bars?

1687182429241

S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2

cpmm-1

0

1.139604159895533

True

play

YES

public

1664527193935

jon jordan

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Interpol has issued a Red Notice for Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon but will Do Kwon end up in prison? This market will only resolve yes if he's given a custodial sentence and also has to physically enter a prison facility. A suspended sentence ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1687182429241

660

jonjordanc3f0

1687182441524

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c

9

0

8

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664527194533}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1682101712621

1687182438695

0.87

0.4396211514278731

4GfUqPS2dd0KzU4VWjTN

{"NO": 811.0816233291797, "YES": 1281.443152125131}

0.33179599336686283

conditional-on-russia-using-nuclear

794.9082590443726

Conditional on Russia using nuclear weapons by 2025, will China officially condemn Russia, announce the end of the partnership, and - in the perception of NATO consensus - act accordingly?

1735685940000

rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2

cpmm-1

0

9.742308223430989

False

basic

public

1664527519017

Marlon K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arguments against the idea that Russia will use nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine often focus on the diplomatic implications for Russia's allies, especially India and China. It is often assumed that they would immediately condemn Russia and p...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.06820400663313758}

0

{"creatorFee": 5.270294780474889, "platformFee": 0.2859922178988327, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

MarlonK

1718676952012

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c

0

27

0

12

[{"name": "Chinese Politics", "slug": "chinese-politics", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "v6naCMPo0bZDsej1tNlq", "createdTime": 1664641180509}, {"name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "2wNGnksxJzypXZtiTLNL", "createdTime": 1664641115903},...

["russia", "nuclear-risk", "wars", "china", "geopolitics", "chinese-politics", "global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1718676948955

1718084390504

False

0.15893947520171825

lqd6x2dhWmE2NlApNoNX

{"NO": 888.3135453774091, "YES": 1532.7162526057082}

0.09871254989765639

will-putin-confirm-he-ordered-a-nuc

1710.1722070744236

Will Putin confirm he ordered a nuclear strike by 2025?

1767247140000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.902465475309327

False

basic

public

1664529189426

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Putin confirm or at least not deny ordering a nuclear strike by close?", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": -0.023270297642303456}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.1324886765477076, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1718182520855

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

22

0

13

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664529190099}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226940}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.10799938756598872

0.5

1718182517678

1714586275526

False

XEhcQnwGXo53oZhGitzf

manifold-plays-chess-3-nc3-nf6-4

103

[Manifold plays chess] 3. Nc3 Nf6 4.

1664616201172

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.834818334989848

True

play

1941d679241a

public

1664529500498

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your move!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d4 d5", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "a...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664616201172

400

AlexLiesman

1664568659316

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "45f7446fe374", "prob": 0.24266543716178504, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 11.599494956773867, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 36.20086381059557, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XEhcQnwGXo53oZhGitzf", "createdTime": 1664529501218, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,...

8

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664529501022}, {"name": "Manifold plays chess", "slug": "manifold-plays-chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ZbnbyDVipy8GQ3qOaBLT", "createdTime": 1664756533239}]

["fun", "manifold-plays-chess"]

1664568659189

{"1941d679241a": 100}

True

0.18122715158910732

hmsYDEsneQG5LSJUWwSm

{"NO": 163.1195830986541, "YES": 1417.3783973282723}

0

will-robert-habeck-resign-as-minist

1452.9598026412446

Will Robert Habeck resign as Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action in 2022?

1672441200000

19GIVOQrFAZN9hs0vdfRdoZ1kpv2

cpmm-1

0

2.7215288977395753

True

play

NO

public

1664531232191

Jan Lukas R.

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves to Yes if German Minister Robert Habeck resigns as Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action at any point in 2022", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 30, 11:48am: ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672479740807

280

JanLukasR

1672421497260

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucp0wouarfRYoG8V5OGRULcvaHsT3LVN8TPhAwu6=s96-c

16

0

1

15

[{"name": "Germany", "slug": "germany", "userId": "jsw8EBZRimdX6B8i10UVuDgiTDf2", "groupId": "0egO7eYCaC5HnLwGN8tR", "createdTime": 1668383538501}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "19GIVOQrFAZN9hs0vdfRdoZ1kpv2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664531232942}, {"name": "Germa...

["politics-default", "germany", "german-politics"]

0.5

1672421496022

0.02

0.2935201530908146

qaPqReN3qAvmVMqYAHrI

{"NO": 101.43773939392283, "YES": 950.3721482020727}

0

will-the-price-of-eu-natural-gas-du

2007.9119588606877

Will the price of EU Natural Gas (Dutch TTF) be over 200€/MWh on October 15, 2022?

1665828000000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

2.1587567223216557

True

play

NO

public

1664539358720

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " If the value of Dutch TTF Natural Gas NOV 22 natural gas futures settles at more than 200.00 €/MWh as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666031147554

220

itsTomekK

1666031136858

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

0

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1664539359144}]

["energy"]

0.5

1665807556450

1666031135236

0.042461960814107164

0.6609654771526506

F2HmX5V9Mq6Fx77PPO3j

{"NO": 353.00000719101143, "YES": 93.15980150497569}

1

will-wholisticguy-still-be-followin

193.71348310389806

Will wholisticguy still be following @ManifoldMarkets on Twitter in 3 months?

1672308003000

QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33

cpmm-1

0

2.5281811208492235

True

play

YES

public

1664539795669

Austin F2P2

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lol", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673295603113

160

AustinF2P2

1672306730676

0

https://firebasestorage.…803-add1221b7343

6

0

3

7

0.5

1672306730506

0.88

0.5000000000000001

O5SkljcUUBXN94IfGXPf

{"NO": 180, "YES": 55.555555555555586}

1

will-tomzdu-still-be-following-mani

80

Will tomzdu still be following @ManifoldMarkets on Twitter in 3 months?

1669774605000

QxvNGGVt6hY18l9CLDNi2GBvVb33

cpmm-1

0

2.9429043389203944

True

play

YES

public

1664542485771

Austin F2P2

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "lol", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673295626705

100

AustinF2P2

1671940073521

0

https://firebasestorage.…803-add1221b7343

2

0

9

4

0.5

1668981644830

1671940070960

0.76

0.1684444879440287

zxFTgDYnZZQp0KQ9EZzj

{"NO": 24.992196993984358, "YES": 2023.1057153717236}

0

will-mark-zuckerberg-compete-in-a-u

2548.7102734483065

Will Mark Zuckerberg compete in a UFC fight before the end of 2022?

1672540022359

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

8.402811239000744

True

play

NO

public

1664549792058

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmy3v/is-mark-zuckerberg-fighting-at-this-weekends-ufc-show", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmy3v/is-mark-zuckerberg-fighting-at-this-weekends-ufc-sho...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672540022359

120

BTE

1672540014273

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

17

0

13

0.5

1672540014153

0

0.5000000000000001

X2Rc6OFeYBMVgLy5eBuQ

{"NO": 225.00594530321052, "YES": 177.77308037837557}

0.5586337196244358

criticism-and-red-teaming-contest-d

45

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 15 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

1664593795142

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664550139285

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Among the Top 15 essays ranked by Manifold % chance to win, were there more Criticism & Red Teaming contest winners than in the Top 15 ranked by EA Forum Karma?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

Austin

1702166208429

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

3

0

1

5

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1664550139748}]

["effective-altruism"]

0.5

1664574172770

1702166207755

0.5000000000000001

0OVtWVFSUKiJJLDuwfGG

{"NO": 225.00594530321052, "YES": 177.77308037837557}

0.5586337196244358

criticism-and-red-teaming-contest-d-06d64fd56e3a

45

[Criticism and Red Teaming Contest] Did Manifold's top 30 identify more winners than EA Forum karma?

1664593785802

igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664550317851

Austin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Among the Top 30 essays ranked by Manifold % chance to win, were there more Criticism & Red Teaming contest winners than in the Top 30 ranked by EA Forum Karma?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

Austin

1702829424052

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c

0

3

0

1

5

[{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1664550318321}]

["effective-altruism"]

0.5

1664574174295

1702829423494

0.13628137906917245

AjaYaOO3BSu0FV5WZCtC

{"NO": 176.93640464565883, "YES": 1367.9729668518405}

0

will-ukraine-join-nato-by-the-end-o

2569.1685931747493

Will Ukraine join NATO by the end of 2022?

1672549140000

Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3

cpmm-1

0

1.694595720774407

True

play

NO

public

1664551400035

Nicola Wilson

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today Ukraine applied for fast-track NATO membership. Will it officially join in 2022? ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672574307718

280

njmkw

1671651636856

0

https://firebasestorage.…e12-2a05b9a967a2

26

0

1

21

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Q6JVSQgtRHVsWCd1fuWmwuXt92E3", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664551400509}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182221820}]

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1671651636735

False

0.02

0.5000000000000002

wc49O6MUROBHsAhEd8xW

{"NO": 211.27702877384937, "YES": 47.331222225318186}

0

will-bereal-have-30m-daus-on-jan-1

136.23278098623877

Will BeReal have >30M DAUs on Jan 1, 2023

1672559940000

HyH0vsJ7LncFGl8yprmUVTfNdxL2

cpmm-1

0

2.367045996401587

True

play

NO

public

1664551447052

Benthamite

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year, it has grown from almost nothing to 15 million DAUs.[1] It tripled in DAUs from July to August.[2]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves as positive if the best sourc...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682789347991

100

Benthamite

1682789453003

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpjghXLjRJiALhE-4NjihKqx2Bqqzq9-9HyIepghg=s96-c

9

0

24

9

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "HyH0vsJ7LncFGl8yprmUVTfNdxL2", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664551447666}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1664786199681

1682789449832

0.82

0.5

pJJ01B5215D6Rg5vkr1L

{"NO": 17.977012999770814, "YES": 556.2659380692166}

0

will-tesla-announce-they-are-updati

522

Will Tesla announce they are updating the hardware of their Dojo supercomputer at AI Day?

1664683140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.093431057236798

True

play

NO

public

1664554249277

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664947687929

100

BTE

1707711100919

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

5

0

1

5

[{"name": "Tesla AI Day", "slug": "tesla-ai-day", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "e6qB5v9gYt25m6RoOyWW", "createdTime": 1664554249772}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1707711098784}]

["tesla-ai-day", "ai"]

0.5

1664677948219

1664747961491

0.03130558758502047

svmstpe2Ox7FyqJnhmMd

should-i-follow-up-on-richard-ngo

468

Should I follow up on Richard Ngo?

1664563524047

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.699416395483212

True

play

656c43c30b56

public

1664557022782

Cedar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I caught Richard Ngo at EAG and had an absolute blast.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He mentioned that there's a conference on Governing AI Compute that I should attend this weekend and told...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664563524047

380

Cedar

1664563890171

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "af6e5c5b631d", "prob": 0.03099583415988891, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.6652324361025943, "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.796762510413746, "textFts": "", "contractId": "svmstpe2Ox7FyqJnhmMd", "createdTime": 1664557023449, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

4

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664557023264}]

["personal-goals"]

1664563495816

1664563887519

{"656c43c30b56": 100}

True

0.4999999999999998

dJjpWOxMBq73bl2aZHj8

{"NO": 176.91901140343822, "YES": 56.52303797468353}

1

i-am-going-to-the-gym-on-1102022

174.52160987780772

I am going to the gym on 1.10.2022

1664699404480

w8vxfr1GzUNcG78CPz70jZmSPY33

cpmm-1

0

2.9331758410155695

True

play

YES

public

1664560318098

Nawid Sayed

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664699404480

100

NawidSayed

1664691481097

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2QJIU1nkG3piv_8xM5ULvqS_9caOYZBAUEaaZt=s96-c

7

0

8

[{"name": "Rationality Freiburg", "slug": "rationality-freiburg", "userId": "w8vxfr1GzUNcG78CPz70jZmSPY33", "groupId": "UGUDRy8jivfChIjNrWo1", "createdTime": 1664560318596}]

["rationality-freiburg"]

0.5

1664691480948

0.7578712227498937

0.37744836371077534

Hb1ObYB1ONHzFFNLacMR

{"NO": 21793.399388650374, "YES": 17437.021714812316}

0.43109590493307404

by-the-end-of-2026-will-we-have-tra

302497.35914030654

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

1801468740000

SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1

cpmm-1

0.05944360927856263

0.9097585666127482

False

plus

public

1664560465170

Eliezer Yudkowsky

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In \"Moving the Eiffel Tower to ROME\", a paper claimed to have identified where the fact \"The Eiffel Tower is in France\" had been stored within GPT-J-6B, in the sense that you could poke the GPT there and make it believe the Eiffel Tower was in ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.00916299513373342, "month": -0.029182451742608584}

0

{"creatorFee": 587.6357488687383, "platformFee": 339.99673887505634, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

20221

EliezerYudkowsky

1720044614377

6.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrJG8Ay-yrvNsp-sZCoQMge2UwXm6PX7H6OTgmpPg=s96-c

47

714

2

179

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "SGthg3WqLWbnlo28JBFON2vxewm1", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664560465700}, {"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": ...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai-alignment", "mechanistic-interpretability", "ai"]

0.3281036539485977

0.5

1720044611265

1717299266065

False

0.5000000000000011

BdjHt5WLhgj4DLiZIpva

{"NO": 932.9593833143238, "YES": 10.718580228514497}

1

will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t

1694.974167965392

Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday?

1664742952124

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

4.873668891846731

True

play

YES

public

1664561230357

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Philadelphia is at home and is favored by 6.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664742952124

100

BruceGrugett

1664742673854

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

13

0

13

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664561230860}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1664742673740

0.9886416970167727

0.5

GgHzqGt2jMX5q8J0IUAn

{"NO": 95.09629433967633, "YES": 105.15656860698282}

0

will-the-la-rams-beat-the-san-franc

125.6244605612975

Will the LA Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night?

1664855940000

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

0.7408290520633594

True

play

NO

public

1664561673219

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 49ers are at home an are favored by 1.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664883976126

100

BruceGrugett

1664819012435

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

11

0

1

11

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664561673706}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1664819012320

0.47488107256177853

gIt9LulLlNNnrVETqtlR

what-will-the-next-cards-to-be-bann

95

What will the next card(s) to be banned by WOTC for Magic the Gathering?

1665414306098

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.842857084650414

True

play

MKT

public

1664562402982

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MTGO formats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Standard", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pioneer", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Modern", "type": "text...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665414306098

579.9999999999999

AlexLiesman

1665579868660

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "1214e2bef7b7", "prob": 0.26298487836949375, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.98005192213573, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.969095511785383, "textFts": "", "contractId": "gIt9LulLlNNnrVETqtlR", "createdTime": 1664562403213, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

6

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1664581269751}]

["gaming"]

1665189428249

1665579863798

{"baa7904eda35": 61.61010598436997, "eb665aeadc55": 38.38989401563002}

True

0.5000000000000001

FJ74ZWICOBwjNp3kq2LO

{"NO": 31.545741324921128, "YES": 316.9999999999998}

1

will-richard-ngo-get-back-to-me-bef

1375.0998467683512

Will Richard Ngo get back to me before Saturday noon?

1664566199010

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-1

0

2.7805671516608697

True

play

YES

public

1664563696407

Cedar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if I receive anything at all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also, m$ for whoever provides me clues of what he meant when he said \"AI Compute Governance confere...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664566199010

100

Cedar

1664566644691

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

5

0

5

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664563696840}]

["ai"]

0.5

1664564758396

1664566642704

0.09050674727800963

0.4999999999999994

WgLNJFOEO3rtppG1GoxK

{"NO": 486.4186964956714, "YES": 20.55842029108559}

1

will-michigan-beat-iowa-on-saturday

400.8152149635533

Will Michigan beat Iowa on Saturday?

1664651826863

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

3.911656225492833

True

play

YES

public

1664564582905

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Iowa is at home. Michigan is favored by 10.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664651826863

100

BruceGrugett

1664649522008

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

9

0

9

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664564583364}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1664649521780

0.9594490173020317

N6ov5uJbzQjDm7qa6RC9

what-ai-advance-in-2023-will-freak

177

What AI advance in 2023 will freak me out the most?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.79777601920519

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664568515663

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022 the advance that freaked me out the most was CoT (I am writing this in September 2022).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If I end up working at an AI safety org in 2023 or there is othe...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704315271498

700.0000000000002

vluzko

1704315296623

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

0

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "45855b489eff", "prob": 0.16128772116578766, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 4.849965569284229, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 25.220305956834917, "textFts": "", "contractId": "N6ov5uJbzQjDm7qa6RC9", "resolverId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "createdTime": 16645...

1

9

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664568516095}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703132022904}]

["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

1680907482996

1704315295923

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

True

0.9109902347144605

sDei65UsZBHsVRVu1qPk

{"NO": 1421.8815050348794, "YES": 914.942726061826}

0.9408474271088738

will-gcp-still-be-a-significant-clo

852.3570313682197

Will GCP still be a significant cloud provider by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

10.345977260387404

False

basic

public

1664573608423

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if no plan to discontinue GCP has been announced and GCP has never dropped below a 0.1% global market share of cloud service providers by the end of 2025", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If GCP...

BINARY

{"day": -1.2212453270876722e-15, "week": -1.2212453270876722e-15, "month": -1.2212453270876722e-15}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AndyMartin

1697903033239

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

16

0

13

[{"name": "cloud", "slug": "cloud", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "o86wcaDH3dIkKqXPKrYG", "createdTime": 1664573608854}, {"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664725469774}]

["cloud", "technology-default"]

0.5

1697903032992

1664574658016

0.42915153726732863

BjCWJiLf3pkbVcwBZtSa

{"NO": 823.7820129146887, "YES": 1287.312505538873}

0.32481745525338834

will-google-fi-be-discontinued-by-t

1256.0910008141739

Will Google Fi be discontinued by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

9.784421606692245

False

basic

public

1664573695299

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if an announcement has been made by the end of 2025 that Google Fi will be discontinued (regardless of deprecation timeline)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Fi is re...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.047992314011136294}

0

{"creatorFee": 6.23367506135426, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AndyMartin

1719487061972

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

1

25

1

8

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664573695862}]

["technology-default"]

0.09409452484506943

0.5

1719487058855

1687129925295

0.31009983093152976

ubgV3L7X8DFy2yNQlDfL

{"NO": 864.2338100706388, "YES": 1300.8943760558625}

0.22994592510224268

will-youtube-tv-be-discontinued-by

910.7571646709685

Will Youtube TV be discontinued by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0.19302265356473206

9.630881759859534

False

basic

public

1664573807923

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if an announcement has been made by the end of 2025 that Youtube TV will be discontinued (regardless of deprecation timeline and whether a related product is also being offered by Google)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"},...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.01004237944272482, "month": -0.01004237944272482}

0

{"creatorFee": 2.693547185845347, "platformFee": 1.0405209665161474, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AndyMartin

1720101882842

2.2

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

28

1

3

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664573808384}]

["technology-default"]

0.13422983365197005

0.5

1720101879757

0.5000000000000001

Hzi6zpLV8hd1wbTCpDNS

{"NO": 145.77379737113247, "YES": 68.59943405700353}

1

will-i-finish-my-book-by-tomorrow-0

164.65255810097787

Will I finish my book by tomorrow (01.10)?

1664632152002

GF6uArktGaZUvVoE4Y0FhwP8n4s2

cpmm-1

0

2.6847207223080156

True

play

YES

public

1664573978424

CatO

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently at page 866 of 1012, I'm not a fast reader and I've been reading it everyday for the past two weeks.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664632152002

100

CatO

1664620584814

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3bjgb5VGYESY47N-Kv92frSeSpnxnSb843LJrv=s96-c

5

0

6

[{"name": "Rationality Freiburg", "slug": "rationality-freiburg", "userId": "GF6uArktGaZUvVoE4Y0FhwP8n4s2", "groupId": "UGUDRy8jivfChIjNrWo1", "createdTime": 1664573978935}]

["rationality-freiburg"]

0.5

1664620583609

1664574304007

0.68

0.5645588824342548

3BH8UNxpc9hscUbu8VIo

{"NO": 179.4016781529669, "YES": 81.90166815296689}

0.739581214605297

will-google-create-an-internallydev

221.31181214194223

Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664574140682

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if, at some point in the year 2025, Google begins selling a new model of an internally-developed smartphone (like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Pixel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "at...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

120

AndyMartin

1681993366021

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

6

0

4

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664574141168}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1681741584551

1681993362761

0.161280165746913

TzHFzmt5dnFAz06cUVUV

{"NO": 902.7211003656842, "YES": 1393.809591364059}

0.11074871461658077

will-google-pay-be-discontinued-by

608.9741703332292

Will Google Pay be discontinued by the end of 2025?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

9.876134123381146

False

basic

public

1664574341151

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if an announcement has been made by the end of 2025 that Google Pay will be discontinued (regardless of deprecation timeline)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Pay is ...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.319170174021109, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AndyMartin

1716969590206

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

19

0

9

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664574341560}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1716969586724

1687129899454

0.27826087106509556

cOEvyLC5IjWLY7OuDOvF

{"NO": 927.4654337891986, "YES": 1156.5619722928454}

0.2361586585505318

will-google-discontinue-the-chromec

1450.3845462714544

Will Google discontinue the Chromecast product line by the end of 2025 without offering a replacement?

1767243540000

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

cpmm-1

0

9.603138157020108

False

basic

public

1664574702951

Andy Martin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if an announcement has been made by the end of 2025 that Google's Chromecast line will be discontinued (regardless of deprecation timeline) ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.011029668391641989}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9179253965158114, "platformFee": 0.08632625755218608, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AndyMartin

1717718515776

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

19

0

7

[{"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology-default", "userId": "Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02", "groupId": "IlzY3moWwOcpsVZXCVej", "createdTime": 1664574703411}]

["technology-default"]

0.5

1717718512647

1687129878382

0.5000000000000063

FoXVSNe8sxl8m6mIBZ6s

{"NO": 400.93701567317527, "YES": 24.94157338705631}

1

this-market-rezolves-to-yes-if-sand

6360.363542222879

This market rezolves to YES if Sandy kissed me at playdaze back in 1998

1664686740000

jOl1FMKpFbXkoaDGp2qlakUxAiJ3

cpmm-1

0

1.7917594692280532

True

play

YES

public

1664576107823

Spindle

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She totally did", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 30, 5:24pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This market rezolves to YES if Sandy kissed me at skateland playdaze back in 1998", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "s...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664708959775

100

Spindle

1664683753227

0

https://firebasestorage.…669-a627f99c07a6

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime": 1665874621431}]

["marketz-about-spindle"]

0.5

1664683753071

1664654088811

0.9414350145141289

0.03487558703852019

RKOik8Ef3xuIZWVspv2F

{"NO": 928.2667253371236, "YES": 967.380288458868}

0.03351273782494917

this-question-will-resolve-no-on-ja

11111.14639107644

This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)

2524712340000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

10.361043757150124

False

basic

public

1664576214489

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Meta comment: This is another \"what is the risk free interest rate\" market, but testing a very long time ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.19035698786727642, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

jack

1717616062380

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

1

35

0

15

[{"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1664576214909}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1665524691815}, {"nam...

["free-money", "interest-rates", "free-mana"]

0.1248075446587926

0.5

1717616059307

1699612819549

0.09144824249500573

0sfTsce1MTQRFsC9KREj

{"NO": 736.6806441489426, "YES": 6845.376229506235}

0.010715900102315466

will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime

9726.970588222104

Will Boris Johnson become UK Prime Minister again by March 2025?

1740787140000

AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1664577082933

Angola Maldives

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boris Johnson was forced to step down as PM in September 2022 after a series of scandals and generally low public approval, but many were sorry to see him go, and he hinted in his farewell speech at a possible return. The new PM, Liz Truss, has inh...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.00018553861368206248}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.23717893503562176, "platformFee": 0.15487983661092697, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

AngolaMaldives

1719613319432

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c

0

39

1

30

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664577083636}]

["politics-default"]

0.12826434484882823

0.5

1719613316283

1686833080117

0.5

45VK0kmiW968Hby1eSZf

{"NO": 92.26799841275002, "YES": 108.37993857053428}

1

will-argentina-defeat-pakistan-in-w

77.48479275381739

Will Argentina defeat Pakistan in World Baseball Classic Qualifier Opening Round?

1664600400000

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

2.775825786096701

True

play

YES

public

1664577672656

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Argentina defeats Pakistan. Watch here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzRFGsRzfKQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzRFGsRzfKQ", "clas...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664602967399

100

LukeW

1664602959366

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

3

0

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664577673291}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1664594919966

1664602955983

0.45985022223496247

0.5000000000000001

YO53IMlOhwQUIUSw3sIA

{"NO": 135.52675356877404, "YES": 73.78616942171068}

1

will-there-be-any-cancellations-or

72.93276739033686

Will there be any cancellations or sets cut short at the When We Were Young festival in Las Vegas?

1666458915703

TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2

cpmm-1

0

2.8186195408132395

True

play

YES

public

1664577952097

BRTD

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if any acts at the When We Were Young festival cancel the week of the scheduled dates or a set is cut short due to technical issues or the crowd being unable to be controlled.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666458915703

100

BRTD

1666458909843

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c

4

0

4

[{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664577953009}]

["culture-default"]

0.5

1664686692036

1666458907665

0.6474839280465021

0.5

xJU9d8TKOltOEcbTVqOX

{"NO": 53.10850045437944, "YES": 188.29377433825437}

1

will-the-total-number-of-indictment

88.29377433825435

Will the total number of indictments in relation to the Feeding Our Future scandal total 50 or higher?

1666435660063

TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2

cpmm-1

0

2.9695729228135033

True

play

YES

public

1664578178859

BRTD

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if the total number of individuals indicted in relation to the Feeding Our Future scandal hits 50 or higher.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666435660063

100

BRTD

1666435643147

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c

3

0

3

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1664578179375}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1665099615271

1666435640798

0.22

hZQdJ5OygypY1SVID50Z

who-is-spindle

108931.95306036659

Who is Spindle?

1678828423300

7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664578816402

journcy

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From the Manifold Discord:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918236290439335936/1025493997029965946", "class": null, "target": "_blank"...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1100.0000000000002

journcy

1703807712991

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgJcq-mmrfsY8Lc5zM24HwmO8aCHr_zfJXkX5FJtA=s96-c

19

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "272935571704", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.005073496785072913, "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.5316748957513835, "textFts": "", "contractId": "hZQdJ5OygypY1SVID50Z", "createdTime": 1664578817416, "probChanges": {"day": -0.998, "week": -0.998, ...

92

17

[{"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime": 1665874621429}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "7uH1XOw7dAcuF2AbQRBZVPl7JLJ2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime"...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "marketz-about-spindle", "doxxing"]

1678656633254

1703807712328

True

0.4485119002704044

LAqaOvIbvsan4dKau4yi

{"NO": 969.9785241075925, "YES": 1033.5325917727992}

0.4328705090905303

will-the-cosmos-ecosystem-market-ca

430.8635738614644

Will the Cosmos ecosystem market cap reach 300B USDe before 2025?

1767243540000

wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2

cpmm-1

0

9.680409689088707

False

basic

public

1664580284791

O

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market resolves to YES if before 2025 the total Cosmos ecosystem market cap is >3 billion USDe for at least one week, indicated by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://cosmos.network/ecosystem/tokens/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "lin...

BINARY

{"day": -8.326672684688674e-16, "week": -8.326672684688674e-16, "month": -8.326672684688674e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

o

1712647365094

0

https://firebasestorage.…35d-e561bc66da0d

2

11

0

7

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664580285292}]

["crypto-speculation"]

0.5

1712647361809

1664646297883

Orn1DHVOtWJdjhqlbFiV

how-should-i-reply-to-spindles-dm

50

How should I reply to Spindle's DM?

1664769540000

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.901971679398953

True

play

198566b91dda

public

1664580660305

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaCI9rq3qy4.png?alt=media&token=ccf6e1e9-0e0d-49f2-88dc-02c34d85f4c3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664843809429

360

Jenny

1664843834779

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

5

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f16ade0fbf7a", "prob": 0.4444444444444444, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 42.40247423999601, "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 53.00309279999501, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Orn1DHVOtWJdjhqlbFiV", "createdTime": 1664580660913, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

5

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664580681873}, {"name": "Marketz About Spindle", "slug": "marketz-about-spindle", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wDAyLOX0KjFAjMpIJmBz", "createdTime": 1665874621430}]

["fun", "marketz-about-spindle"]

False

1664724692199

1664843849923

{"198566b91dda": 100}

True

0.569926874213953

WbzESRkzblodJkYWTOuf

{"NO": 419.57291493974975, "YES": 48.34888191941484}

1

will-manifold-allow-to-fold-comment

707.9858737771092

Will Manifold allow folding comments before 2023?

1666976257650

wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2

cpmm-1

0

2.6972856361493873

True

play

YES

public

1664581500864

O

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves as YES if Manifold adds the ability to fold/hide comment trees by end of year 2022. For example, by clicking the vertical line under the user's picture in the comment section - like on Reddit.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666976257650

140

o

1666975592619

0

https://firebasestorage.…35d-e561bc66da0d

12

0

15

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664581501366}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1666965140063

1666975581110

0.9200000000000004

0.49999999999999967

btcp7n9a3qQXEgDgkea4

{"NO": 52.07779840671934, "YES": 192.02040612204075}

0.2133477323491881

did-robbi-jade-lew-cheat-in-the-hus

299.9278123508943

Did Robbi Jade Lew cheat in the Hustler Casino Live incident? (IF I'm pretty sure at close)

1665266340000

hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2

cpmm-1

0

2.981751066716443

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664584859954

Warty

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "let p = my subjective (uncalibrated) probability at resolution time that Robbi Jade Lew cheated in the game at any point during the 30 Sep 2022 Hustler Casino Live livestream", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665267069816

100

warty

1701129922130

0

https://firebasestorage.…fed-6ca5ba3a485c

11

0

12

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "hEV2GJRU5sa3PDAyh4MgwS6LXoY2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664584860573}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1665241348361

1701129921383

0.2133477323491881

0.3438001612842986

4fPq6PiY40SUrZGL7cb5

{"NO": 710.9561968367593, "YES": 1676.2255083911364}

0.18181573928296926

will-magnus-carlsen-compete-for-the

2109.7204509427916

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

1988121660000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0.7884941143602693

9.75138688258135

False

basic

public

1664588700792

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as YES if Magnus Carlsen, the Classical World Chess Champion as of 2022, participates either in: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) An event, such as a candidates tour...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.105006245520289, "platformFee": 1.2163553378590677, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1717017335391

3.4

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

28

0

3

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664588701324}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1691182007035}]

["sports-default", "chess"]

0.16075138448222628

0.5

1717017331522

1702722204783

False

0.3749249454355021

aVLZG6tC0YZYJqRgKy1G

{"NO": 1221.7831022137527, "YES": 681.4928458506988}

0.5181507724111235

will-tesla-sell-1b-of-humanoid-robo

4039.04395798314

Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?

1893477540000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.61387645969861

False

basic

public

1664589641716

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-the-tesla-bot-be-available-by/will-tesla-sell-more-than-one-milli", "height": "200px", ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10370364513529418}

0

{"creatorFee": 14.693301467743272, "platformFee": 2.677364261132959, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1718897191160

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

48

0

19

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1718897188086

1715008394103

False

0.28293604259929417

Xwpwk20RwE4Yrrj42oaI

{"NO": 956.3660751202566, "YES": 1051.1462990247514}

0.26416345264527746

will-tesla-sell-more-than-one-milli

1472.7920000717165

Will Tesla sell >1M humanoid robots by 2030?

1893477540000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.593864323060686

False

basic

public

1664589725075

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-tesla-sell-1b-of-humanoid-robo/will-the-tesla-bot-be-available-by", "height": "200px",...

BINARY

{"day": 5.551115123125783e-17, "week": 5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -0.013161657615093303}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.9297568448935295, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1718914705796

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

1

22

0

12

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1718914702668

1684917997310

False

0.19506257536892987

K05XmyHAeUcLNqKVpvxm

{"NO": 1020.5305752434988, "YES": 811.0024839500929}

0.2336817675151272

will-tesla-be-the-most-valuable-us

1736.3483084603743

Will Tesla be the most valuable US company by 2030?

1893477540000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

9.69042424827389

False

basic

public

1664589881165

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At any point. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FpE9At-gxk1.jpeg?alt=media&token=00f63879-46d1-4c75-9be1-a9df0c2fb2...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.10045786351102598}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.89224727818515, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Gigacasting

1718780052494

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

23

0

16

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1718780049438

1668789834289

False

vgLK0gFQf2WCjKKzRpPO

who-will-win-il-lombardia-2022

54.01155233089227

Who will win Il Lombardia 2022?

1665179940000

7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.927249832630871

True

play

bc86c988eb98

public

1664590011481

Nick el Chen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665240321792

579.9999999999998

NickelChen

1664888783611

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9E3INzQHUc_He3qm32nbVI4P7B6jFqdUzd4aWVmw=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0b8f18481c12", "prob": 0.5406493019397199, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 35.259807186565766, "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 29.95771378324228, "textFts": "", "contractId": "vgLK0gFQf2WCjKKzRpPO", "createdTime": 1664590012155, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

1

3

[{"name": "Cycling", "slug": "road-bicycle-racing", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "2yisxJryUq9V5sG7P6Gy", "createdTime": 1664590012000}, {"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "7NRnXkODjAPvtKCmqZi26unEPoK2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664590420410}]

["road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default"]

1664888783417

{"bc86c988eb98": 100}

True

0.2811075345032039

h5smHK7jSU2alU41RL7C

{"NO": 848.9259328266596, "YES": 1437.245357887254}

0.18762966255259894

a-publiclytraded-google-competitors

5167.5354372796555

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

1830268860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0.21990076274895357

9.64015230267232

False

basic

public

1664591139072

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as \"YES\" if a publicly-traded competitor to Google has higher search-derived revenue than Google during four consecutive quarters some time before 2028. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co...

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 3.618051408426874, "platformFee": 1.3806255659494822, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1716776596060

2.2

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

50

0

37

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664591139693}]

["economics-default"]

0.17097514321812662

0.5

1716776592331

1669811822792

0.23696926354624856

HkqnhAxn5qWpFzWQPMta

{"NO": 151.76800247933124, "YES": 5035.302685509263}

0

tesla-incs-market-capitalization-dr

6562.655746817475

Tesla Inc's market capitalization drops below US$300 billion on NASDAQ before 2024 or TSLA bankrupt.

1703978219105

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

2.1617244620335114

True

play

NO

public

1664592082808

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marked as \"YES\" if before 2024 Tesla (ticker TSLA) trades at least 100 shares on the NASDAQ stock exchange at a price which gives TSLA a market capitalization under US$300 billion OR TSLA declares bankruptcy before. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1703978219105

370

HarrisonLucas

1703978220029

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

18

0

1

12

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664592083399}, {"name": "New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "crea...

["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11403809283318819

0.5

1703947480427

1703947535128

0.01

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

0.5000000000000001

VdklR0wYPBy4tnNASSH3

{"NO": 88.64052604279178, "YES": 112.81521496355327}

0.4399999999999999

will-ukraine-join-nato-by-2025

12.81521496355328

Will Ukraine join NATO by 2025?

1664592806379

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

2.779854214432522

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664592759069

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664592806379

100

Gigacasting

1664592799558

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

2

0

2

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664592759698}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226746}]

["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1664592799453

False

0.43999999999999984

0.44325356767141433

p9BH5mq7HiDtfiym0p8H

{"NO": 993.2776327345299, "YES": 1006.4699285403248}

0.44000000000000017

lng-importexport-terminal-destroyed

171.31832119507243

LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.

1767196860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

9.698889685270656

False

basic

public

1664593891222

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In September of 2022, two natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were destroyed in an apparent act of sabotage. This question covers whether other critical natural gas infrastructure is in danger.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1719483818642

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

12

0

10

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664593891732}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1698059700791

1719483817206

0.19698852773589093

8zCxM0OFdF5UxHDCXdNd

{"NO": 857.4867608293121, "YES": 1480.221208153435}

0.12442642709421325

credit-suisse-insolvent-or-bankrupt

12408.931351040106

Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025

1735660860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

9.681523996693365

False

basic

public

1664600130925

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credit Suisse Group AG of Zurich, Switzerland (SIX: CSGN, NYSE: CS) either declares bankruptcy or is found to be insolvent by auditors or regulators before 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text"...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": -0.015080671381960231, "month": -0.015080671381960231}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.4858871688344581, "platformFee": 0.1154676609315119, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1719993623888

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

40

2

23

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1664600131512}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1719993620817

1664664183924

0.34998480129003795

4MeNf1jeMMPyY6J2uccb

{"NO": 140.8194747331974, "YES": 336.45505382908857}

0.18390794341933314

will-annual-private-equity-secondar

239.3400425454159

Will annual private equity secondaries market surpass $250B in transaction volume by 2025

1743490740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664600483800

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves yes if, per volume estimates by Jefferies Private Capital Advisory Group, annual PE secondary market volume has surpassed $250B in any of the years 2022-2024. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

CarsonGale

1696924561790

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

9

0

6

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670347328603}, {"name": "Secondary Private Equity", "slug": "secondary-private-equity", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "vfs3YP4g4Ad0ZNK1IELS", "creat...

["finance", "secondary-private-equity", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1696924561669

0.9116162001192721

XFQUUuFb67sgeQSht1Yd

{"NO": 10033.673914060792, "YES": 175.70154476954423}

1

will-you-be-able-to-add-to-liquidit

13814.08668351014

Will you be able to add to liquidity pool again by market close?

1665547140000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

4.012310637364549

True

play

YES

public

1664602016039

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-11 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665555316104

551

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710462504964

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

17

0

1

15

[{"name": "💙 Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ"}, {"name": "Manifold Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4"}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", ...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "free-money", "olivia", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1665539900527

1665457931053

0.9983051177575946

0.24245492288041456

h7donB7Jbls29Xt4umvZ

{"NO": 746.6605969085158, "YES": 2210.0687358285277}

0.09757754186107294

will-the-government-of-the-islamic-611637199b47

9589.797673157484

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024?

1735707540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0.03373816910817448

9.771716464316345

False

basic

public

1664602305918

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Protests have been going on for several days around the country now, following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody, and at least some involved in the protests are calling for regime change. However, large-scale protests have happened before ...

BINARY

{"day": -0.043024193253189444, "week": -0.043024193253189444, "month": -0.04193228018399654}

0

{"creatorFee": 12.13730946035459, "platformFee": 7.156233034194338, "liquidityFee": 0}

600

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1720245432480

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

88

2

61

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664602621172}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664602617090}, {"name": "O...

["iran", "olivia", "world-default", "global-macro", "politics-default"]

0.15806174202954182

0.5

1720245429382

1681667481550

0.6199861017080226

Bq1rM2XSsrYVVnoh1I38

{"NO": 227.55567923486285, "YES": 92.69740116142249}

0.800199827260513

will-there-ever-be-a-gen-x-us-presi

887.1699575668722

Will there ever be a Gen X US President?

4126737540000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664602469450

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.07019982726051299}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8016998265269576, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

140

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719259613143

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

10

0

6

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "Olivia",...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "olivia"]

0.5

1719259609963

1664637859323

0.7657987296095867

L0OMUzA1gr9pea7TaDLh

{"NO": 9394.306556136278, "YES": 73.45662659914959}

1

will-trump-be-charged-by-the-doj-by

16384.603577421043

Will Trump be charged by the DoJ by the end of 2023 for crimes related to removing documents from the White House to his home Mar-a-Lago?

1690675371846

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

2.926180301192148

True

play

YES

public

1664603267123

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ill resolve along same criteria as the original market, but with a different date", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-th...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1690675371846

340

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710456560568

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

22

0

10

[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}, {"name": "🐘 Repub...

["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "law-order", "olivia"]

0.13367869961487147

0.5

1688181718792

1686271230295

1

0.5057516858389537

VFrcSE5t2E4KFJ3VmIah

{"NO": 104.95762263556325, "YES": 136.69149015356857}

1

will-i-be-removed-from-the-amazon-v

56.274531979544044

Will I be removed from the Amazon Vine program before 2024?

1672559940000

ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3

cpmm-1

2.434111609534524

True

play

YES

public

1664603492202

Adam

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I was accepted into the Amazon Vine program a few days ago. For those who don't know, it's a program run by Amazon where members are given free items of their choice in return for writing reviews. This is a pretty sweet deal; a lot of the stuff ava...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676821385738

120

Adam

1676821380135

0

https://firebasestorage.…d37-352aa46c7332

6

0

10

6

0.5

1671067952349

1676821376561

0.44

0.5094138076933223

cFty7whEQlKdWxFMTXRA

{"NO": 953.7691808788085, "YES": 139.1241780346102}

1

will-ai-art-text2imgetc-be-regulate

1334.240901387535

Will "AI art" (text2img,etc) be regulated before 2024?

1670992130223

MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2

cpmm-1

0

1.299747135494521

True

play

YES

public

1664603973401

Juan Pablo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if a major government such as the US, Canada, Europe, Australia, etc, decides to regulate the creation or distribution of AI art through law. For example: laws banning AI art, encouraging it and accepting it as transformative, etc. ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670992130223

360

mkualquiera

1670992124904

0

https://firebasestorage.…811-70ac6aa78af2

18

0

16

[{"name": "Law & Order", "slug": "law-order", "userId": "MwhSsHsiOUVVfcZB2eF0PlkoVEs2", "groupId": "9JiXkg8yBFMmO4NwCW44", "createdTime": 1664603973923}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181907259}]

["law-order", "ai"]

0.5

1670924610709

1670992121001

False

0.88

0.9776115314136656

Qzk5thhh6iMRVmo8mlcI

{"NO": 1051.7658664157273, "YES": 920.9611002042369}

0.9803411761602954

this-question-will-resolve-positive-9495c804608b

7144.579927761198

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2026

1767329940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.888424674859081

False

basic

public

1664604356790

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2026. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that w...

BINARY

{"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -0.009324463214238077, "month": -0.00905509450590114}

0

{"creatorFee": 23.476025836942718, "platformFee": 0.34877440231856266, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719944940571

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

26

4

16

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664604471207}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664604357212}, {"name": "Fre...

["interest-rates", "olivia", "free-money", "free-mana"]

0.11061842266803452

0.5

1719944935388

0.9767413655334581

PcITdZ4vHhJXJpmfiGuP

{"NO": 1378.746244035036, "YES": 916.2890641547792}

0.9844212088425006

this-question-will-resolve-positive-e9755a3c9f2e

8085.277378772871

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028

1830401940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

9.888424674859081

False

basic

public

1664604418512

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.0006594139616611372, "month": -0.00011850761719756076}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.4409109206444486, "platformFee": 0.3233264019548694, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719944960846

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

24

1

14

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664604462561}, {"name": "Interest Rates", "slug": "interest-rates", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "NQRP4KzZgRzwssnVKlp9", "createdTime": 1664604418913}, {"name": "Fre...

["interest-rates", "olivia", "free-money", "free-mana"]

0.5

1719944957541

0.16724070167148805

gP5BvCXhaQf9rboQFaoR

{"NO": 276.9234244715751, "YES": 1941.5291608515788}

0

in-planecrash-will-broom-successful

2315.27835080533

In Planecrash, will Broom successfully avert the apocalypse by stabbing Keltham.

1680843034774

mNi8c71HVXNDuQZ4UIY7Z0BYKYx1

cpmm-1

0

1.4158855249151312

True

play

NO

public

1664606737227

Buy Nak Sell Doof

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if Broom successfully averts the apocalypse by stabbing Keltham. It resolves no if the apocalypse is averting in some other way, or if it is not averted.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "co...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680843067038

420

BuyNakSellDoof

1680054417664

0

https://firebasestorage.…2c3-189c27219cd1

24

0

2

21

[{"name": "Planecrash", "slug": "planecrash", "userId": "mNi8c71HVXNDuQZ4UIY7Z0BYKYx1", "groupId": "1jDuEPpS0Qs4HCseSxdv", "createdTime": 1664606737784}, {"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "NOwmwNXwwEPeMSyRv7Jby3Ry2Qs1", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1670308296817}]

["planecrash", "glowfic"]

0.5

1680054417568

1669060963557

0.03

ohBewYGXxG9ZRqe8KgGG

total-electricity-supply-in-the-uk

90.405145206046

Total electricity supply in the UK in Q4 2022

1680159540000

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.857738930322732

True

play

5d98c58f2ae6

public

1664610657720

Anton Paquin

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As measured by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680403114630

760

citrinitas

1680191423811

0

https://firebasestorage.…afb-e0ee9de88cd8

7

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "7fea44f71aaf", "prob": 0.303244492080045, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.004940323234845, "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 41.36939554592985, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ohBewYGXxG9ZRqe8KgGG", "createdTime": 1664610657985, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

6

[{"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1664610830759}]

["energy"]

1680155426323

1680191448098

{"5d98c58f2ae6": 100}

True

eKiUe1ZrZOXrUH0xUdv6

manifold-plays-chess-3-nc3-nf6-4-dfc3e9b83189

84

[Manifold plays chess] 4. Nc3 Nf6 5.

1664704800000

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.854926641247013

True

play

d08caa4e54e4

public

1664616562900

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your move", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d4 d5", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "at...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664706822065

419.99999999999994

AlexLiesman

1664647274563

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

10

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "87fe12da7fc4", "prob": 0.2953686200378072, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.57703561120713, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 44.317376154095726, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eKiUe1ZrZOXrUH0xUdv6", "createdTime": 1664616563671, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

10

[{"name": "Manifold plays chess", "slug": "manifold-plays-chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ZbnbyDVipy8GQ3qOaBLT", "createdTime": 1664756555650}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1664628925245}, {"n...

["fun", "chess", "manifold-plays-chess"]

1664647274357

{"d08caa4e54e4": 100}

True

z3TJGiIADbaopAHhXGrD

who-will-be-tubingens-next-mayor

400

Who will be Tübingen's next mayor?

1666546645436

jG6jdINhZ2O7DmqUddB9cybjdUc2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.710339874248719

True

play

e6840e1d6dd3

public

1664619645631

Ludwig Bald

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The German town of Tübingen is going to vote on its next mayor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a particularly interesting election because the incumbent Boris Palmer has lost the support of his party, the G...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666546645436

320

LudwigBald

1666544458608

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpdAg-oPQf3A6u2xC_7JJtocc_1tFMo_JAoBMaahtM=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "0febd5492bdd", "prob": 0.040000000000000015, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.1430952132988172, "userId": "jG6jdINhZ2O7DmqUddB9cybjdUc2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 27.434285119171598, "textFts": "", "contractId": "z3TJGiIADbaopAHhXGrD", "createdTime": 1664619646568, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

3

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "jG6jdINhZ2O7DmqUddB9cybjdUc2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664619646429}]

["politics-default"]

1666544457333

{"e6840e1d6dd3": 100}

True

WJeFIggNc1kQ8y72lBcN

how-many-people-will-attend-the-acx

797.4411618705741

How many people will attend the ACX meetup on Oct 14th 2022 in Freiburg, Germany?

1665759600000

4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.67118531223168

True

play

ac91f7e2c6b2

public

1664622301982

Omar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please don't add new answers. I don't understand how overlapping answers are supposed to be handled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the meetup does not take place or is postponed it will r...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665782737374

720

Omar

1665782769726

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9OmoWVfNSAaxF2g8luaugezhLtwrB-rZDZNKIz=s96-c

9

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "6deffa044828", "prob": 0.01331692297898725, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.12376760273095759, "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 9.170241450730586, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WJeFIggNc1kQ8y72lBcN", "createdTime": 1664622302537, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

9

[{"name": "Rationality Freiburg", "slug": "rationality-freiburg", "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "groupId": "UGUDRy8jivfChIjNrWo1", "createdTime": 1664622302368}, {"name": "ACX", "slug": "acx", "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "groupId": "UCM2uiHxr7Rftaa1KB29", "createdTime": 1664623743847}]

["rationality-freiburg", "acx"]

1665759085338

1665782766558

{"ac91f7e2c6b2": 100}

True

5lOi8It9gXxz4FJkp2cI

how-many-people-will-attend-the-rat

245

How many people will attend the rationalist hike on Oct 15th 2022 in Freiburg, Germany?

1665759600000

4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.750278660841244

True

play

65c9c5aecbd8

public

1664623414314

Omar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please don't add new answers. I don't understand how overlapping answers are supposed to be handled.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the hike does not take place or is postponed it will res...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665848068262

520

Omar

1665848082305

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu9OmoWVfNSAaxF2g8luaugezhLtwrB-rZDZNKIz=s96-c

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "951f6bc6a046", "prob": 0.08401596303297626, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 2.0355826903233725, "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 22.192940281250568, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5lOi8It9gXxz4FJkp2cI", "createdTime": 1664623414894, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

1

4

[{"name": "Rationality Freiburg", "slug": "rationality-freiburg", "userId": "4qo8lrsvrfOwPjT92H30Po3pHsz2", "groupId": "UGUDRy8jivfChIjNrWo1", "createdTime": 1664623414735}]

["rationality-freiburg"]

1665732655857

1665848078889

{"65c9c5aecbd8": 100}

True

0.23285206553826332

1znwxN80MDcfFufL2cL2

{"NO": 66.04098215262604, "YES": 951.1089115214287}

0

will-liz-truss-say-i-told-you-so-in

1346.792743785288

Will Liz Truss say "I told you so" in any PMQs this year?

1672531140000

MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2

cpmm-1

0

4.089737088524435

True

play

NO

public

1664623830172

Jonathan Nankivell

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, according to the official transcription, Liz Truss says the phrase \"I told you so\" or \"we told you so\" in Prime Minister's questions this year, this question resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673963240419

160

JonathanNankivell

1673963216870

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c

10

0

4

8

[{"name": "UK politics", "slug": "uk-politics", "userId": "MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2", "groupId": "aavkiDd6uZggfL3geuV2", "createdTime": 1664623830761}]

["uk-politics"]

0.5

1668113769582

1673963218386

0.02

0.7210115449007817

ihjE6dR5mHjKSRGKU5IZ

{"NO": 1613.7119922894854, "YES": 51.408154073717185}

1

will-another-hurricane-after-ian-hi

9633.05225807692

Will another hurricane (after Ian) hit Florida this year?

1668387915826

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

3.955171031483222

True

play

YES

public

1664630583517

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"yes\" if another hurricane of any strength makes landfall anywhere in Florida before January 1.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668387915826

240

BruceGrugett

1668367282816

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

25

0

17

[{"name": "Weather", "slug": "weather", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "Vw7PuCkPJlK51z43wA4k", "createdTime": 1664630583982}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1668170104091}]

["weather", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1668367282695

1668210448559

0.9878233095282415

9jqE1Cltv9hskrOl3ovz

what-group-should-i-post-my-new-soc

130

What group should I post my new socializing / networking / diffusing social anxiety markets?

1665287940000

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.811443379367308

True

play

9039f24ce772

public

1664635764385

Cedar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm ESL & immigrant and very anxious about rules / norms etc. with regards to reaching out, networking, asking for things, electronic communications, tec.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I use...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666617283349

499.99999999999994

Cedar

1665226147074

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "4557c80b64a1", "prob": 0.1890359168241966, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.865976065838021, "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 38.035037322445106, "textFts": "", "contractId": "9jqE1Cltv9hskrOl3ovz", "createdTime": 1664635764956, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

4

9

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664635764819}]

["personal-goals"]

1665226145678

1664686100394

{"9039f24ce772": 100}

True

0.9760471172702231

ckcNa91X2MWAAvOA2tj2

{"NO": 1363.2254448037977, "YES": 916.3631257090724}

0.9837713976796394

this-question-will-resolve-positive-8a54be80b7e4

2773.323073873705

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029

1862024340000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1664637724529

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": -0.0030807268331757287, "month": -0.002673187348985806}

0

{"creatorFee": 1.2784779395106245, "platformFee": 0.3383464506450328, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

LivInTheLookingGlass

1719963129474

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

1

19

1

10

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664637881405}, {"name": "Free Money", "slug": "free-money", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "CInny8Cy4Kt2Igl588QV", "createdTime": 1664637724964}, {"name": "Interest Ra...

["free-money", "olivia", "interest-rates", "free-mana"]

0.5

1719963126398

1664722928737

0.7805733977954064

Ona3SiZtzVDRrSf5OMsm

{"NO": 1161.9629332419936, "YES": 121.66860852260484}

1

will-mateusz-morawiecki-stay-prime

1242.78455190747

Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2022?

1672527540000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

2.8396293623457103

True

play

YES

public

1664638028762

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if, by December 31 2022, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If in 2022 Mateusz Morawiecki for any reason w...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672658571839

232

itsTomekK

1672516433726

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

12

0

1

11

[{"name": "Central Europe", "slug": "central-europe", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "fiFxXettsJwAQ9hBBErv", "createdTime": 1664705957698}, {"name": "Poland", "slug": "poland", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "eGQaygk9D261Iu1uBpDA", "createdTime": 1664638029142}, {"name": "Lea...

["poland", "central-europe", "leaders"]

0.5

1672516433567

0.97

0.31918272898525535

MWYti8n3cWeLj6dlfcRn

{"NO": 499.7848015003692, "YES": 111.01403426195017}

1

will-i-weigh-under-230-lbs-on-20230

1368.5881681799835

Will I weigh under 230 lbs on 2023-01-01?

1672552740000

yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2

cpmm-1

0

1.5148165283075459

True

play

YES

public

1664638804150

phaen

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a commitment aid; I will keep buying YES. I intend to provide regular progress updates, at least monthly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Today on 2022-10-01 I weigh 241.8 lbs. (NOTE: ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672584210436

340

phaen

1672584319776

0

https://firebasestorage.…9a0-90cebc102691

19

0

1

17

[{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "yAPO0lFCr0VYiIosymUdZgbTxnC2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664638804706}]

["personal-goals"]

0.5

1672538117924

1672584316657

0.68

0.27909954167056655

DDU6kttamQOBqd2KzbA8

{"NO": 54.880396777699595, "YES": 666.2762445128778}

0

will-iran-attack-us-forces-in-iraq

1053.9370576229637

Will Iran attack US forces in Iraq in 2022, causing at least one casualty?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.6777349863408952

True

play

NO

public

1664640406046

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian military forces exchanged fire or any other \"kinetic conflict\" with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces, by the end of 2022. Otherwise NO.", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672728467318

140

jack

1672548249147

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

7

0

1

7

[{"name": "Iran", "slug": "iran", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "E1hI0LQPWmoAcpvhcjHa", "createdTime": 1664640406563}]

["iran"]

0.5

1672548249049

0.03

0.5000000000000002

T3GNafDu5xcwRhSf13Up

{"NO": 21.90702937785757, "YES": 456.4744871391589}

0

will-nicaragua-defeat-brazil-in-the

356.4744871391589

Will Nicaragua defeat Brazil in the World Baseball Classic Qualifier Opening Round?

1664668800000

KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2

cpmm-1

0

3.829079304836551

True

play

NO

public

1664640548024

LukeW

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Nicaragua defeats Brazil. Watch here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://youtu.be/UOW0Z2z2RG4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/UOW0Z2z2RG4", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-7...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664671201983

100

LukeW

1664671200474

0

https://firebasestorage.…90a-defe115a34f8

3

0

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1664640548606}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1664665846513

1664671194858

0.04579405478990394

0.8681706087656503

RxLlqBrRqNICgqAM8p5S

{"NO": 1823.428977529939, "YES": 370.48247447143456}

1

will-there-be-a-texttoaudio-tool-th

3464.9043545622653

Will there be a text-to-audio tool that produces sounds of a quality comparable to real recordings, by 2024? (Musical-, voice- and synthesizer imitations excluded)

1703977140000

rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2

cpmm-1

0.6049335573014605

1.8740874627882091

True

play

YES

public

1664640610276

Marlon K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve \"yes\" if there is a text-2-audio tool that produces sound which:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "generates imitations ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1705157844278

500

MarlonK

1705157844578

2.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c

0

41

0

3

29

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664640610771}, {"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664641065167}, {"nam...

["ai", "technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1906305182274959

0.5

1703965659511

1705157838827

0.97

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

5Bn2HWQItCk9aQyavmN6

what-would-make-the-next-richmond-v

11

What would make the next Richmond, VA meetup better?

1665287940000

pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.985601068603798

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664646504516

Cedar

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let me know!", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670436145139

260

Cedar

1665192792901

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjd4nhRUmowGsjcrgg2v3gA6RC7KFm4CywwJFsTuQ=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "c334f8eb72ac", "prob": 0.8116224332440549, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 67.77565159355972, "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 15.730728734865206, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5Bn2HWQItCk9aQyavmN6", "createdTime": 1664646505055, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ...

10

2

[{"name": "ACX Schelling meetup", "slug": "acx-schelling-meetup", "userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1", "groupId": "Ts47mAGDxtxznVd52R1n", "createdTime": 1664646504902}]

["acx-schelling-meetup"]

1664646547968

1665192790263

True

0.7486884330426519

5G5txEIicNUYlmIqNzNb

{"NO": 538.3431338050328, "YES": 80.23922141370657}

0.952352866776484

to-face-the-death-will-kalorm-recov

596.9428275121626

[to face the death...] Will Kalorm recover to the point that he prefers life over True Death?

1667275140000

1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2

cpmm-1

0

3.447767184235838

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664646608982

Numendil

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if thread is abandoned without answering the question.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1701491477741

160

Numendil

1701236374880

0

https://firebasestorage.…327-5db202f7d69a

14

0

5

15

[{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "1QZqsxv938WiqJDBPdiIYTxO35s2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1664646609458}]

["glowfic"]

0.5

1667274328131

1701236374192

0.95