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0.3187982937059881 | 6Qq1JmhJ8wj7EPJWwuXS | {"NO": 358.23933325552116, "YES": 11245.71774777849} | 0 | will-the-5state-busy-beaver-be-know | 28778.796223760866 | Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by June 2024? | 1717311540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0.02372021518185463 | 10.432594826757061 | True | basic | NO | public | 1664646899317 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the Busy Beaver Challenge", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://bbchallenge.org/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:under... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": -0.014689248293639452} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 20.47958094496236, "platformFee": 11.984668088005865, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1717389347848 | 1130 | BoltonBailey | 1719936254287 | 1.6 | 10 | 83 | 0 | 1 | 26 | [{"name": "Mathematics", "slug": "mathematics", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "S1tbcVt1t5Bd9O5mVCx1", "createdTime": 1664646899800}, {"name": "Busy Beavers", "slug": "busy-beavers", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "4fXA5gthOJaoUkFN3q03", "createdTime": 1675141390428}] | ["mathematics", "busy-beavers"] | 0.1434988640681854 | 0.5 | 1717227864643 | 1719936252304 | 0.01 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4576343980421675 | MTJvn1ltqhcAQjLCNqrf | {"NO": 1259.9597975067165, "YES": 726.6524505372693} | 0.5939978104420394 | will-the-tesla-bot-be-available-by | 6842.081288938867 | Will the Tesla Bot be available by 2028? | 1830319140000 | wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.317893939042822 | False | basic | public | 1664673064957 | Gigacasting | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/7791", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\r", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Marke... | BINARY | {"day": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": -1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 0.14127247166152984} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 39.04772956043916, "platformFee": 24.506010188542554, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | Gigacasting | 1718975725154 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.1159556094689882 | 0.5 | 1718975722084 | 1718586912885 | False | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000008 | Sb4nfJ3Txa9D1X0ikBFU | {"NO": 803.4719676513976, "YES": 12.445984928672363} | 1 | in-till-death-or-i-cut-loose-the-ti | 837.9279163470324 | In Till Death or I cut Loose the Tie, is gur zna va gur qrzvcynar jbexvat sbe gur Puryvfu tbireazrag be puhepu bs Nfzbqrhf | 1664729407616 | zyqSHXXfXFMQebN2IaAw3Eaaz1E2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.636755367109746 | True | play | YES | public | 1664688206955 | QTesseract | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolved to yes if the yet unidentified character that appears in Lintamande’s tags as summoning an angel within a demiplane is revealed to be working for the government of cheliax, church of asmodeus, or any obviously related group. ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664729407616 | 100 | QTesseract | 1664729366015 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | [{"name": "Glowfic", "slug": "glowfic", "userId": "zyqSHXXfXFMQebN2IaAw3Eaaz1E2", "groupId": "2VsVVFGhKtIdJnQRAXVb", "createdTime": 1664688207465}] | ["glowfic"] | 0.5 | 1664729365453 | 0.984746033728862 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.4450699385833661 | 9OhEn8akKzII3DsKJ4An | {"NO": 1077.8209787010628, "YES": 903.8630273705057} | 0.4888538928763656 | will-aducanumab-be-withdrawn-by-the | 413.93142528978973 | Will aducanumab be withdrawn by the FDA by 2025? | 1735689540000 | DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.701474234129456 | False | basic | public | 1664702067255 | Antoine Dusséaux | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biogen's aducanumab/Aduhelm is a medication designed to treat Alzheimer's disease. It was approved for medical use in the United States by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in June 2021, in a controversial decision that led to the resignation ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.0510007999233561} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 4.83691289269839, "platformFee": 1.122171979402495, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | adssx | 1718914632182 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu8p4k4KE9xrnxs6Iop5Df3i3SjHGfXZPYd0NPoUvA=s96-c | 19 | 0 | 6 | [{"name": "Health", "slug": "health", "userId": "DgiY4whXdTOHJyM3Qn0vcEsEcCD2", "groupId": "JpUqUqRn9sSWxrk0Sq35", "createdTime": 1664702067698}] | ["health"] | 0.5 | 1718914629083 | 1706741331248 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.18874085356046277 | orc2iguCYyQDq80N6KXX | {"NO": 159.31259312484934, "YES": 4171.073874432439} | 0 | bitcoin-difficulty-drops-by-30-befo | 7293.301117477535 | Bitcoin difficulty drops by 30% before October 2023 | 1696089660000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.610340638669853 | True | play | NO | public | 1664707084952 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When this claim was created, the mining difficulty for Bitcoin was listed as 31.36t at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.blockchain.com/charts/difficulty", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.blockchain... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1696567824908 | 340 | HarrisonLucas | 1696336392441 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 6 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664707085429}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.5 | 1696083489002 | 1696336390783 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.08093652347839257 | rNtVQnLsAtBo0pRhLG86 | {"NO": 914.4523619906262, "YES": 1470.1811712198823} | 0.05193128665095902 | satoshi-nakamotos-account-transfers | 650.8829191958746 | Satoshi Nakamoto's account transfers BTC before 2025. | 1735660860000 | LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2 | cpmm-1 | 0.14725755988409506 | 10.432101360996558 | False | basic | public | 1664707424296 | Harrison Lucas | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A Bitcoin address known to be owned by Satoshi Nakamoto will transfer any amount of BTC to another Bitcoin address before 2025.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The data to resolve this questio... | BINARY | {"day": 6.938893903907228e-18, "week": 6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -0.003890142204154512} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.37541537861819674, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | HarrisonLucas | 1718723637208 | 1.1 | 23 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664707424714}] | ["crypto-speculation"] | 0.11538617821478962 | 0.5 | 1718723634150 | 1701990672036 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.7813010967441253 | 3qRbZURu3xWxegJUm4QT | {"NO": 2640.3154876883486, "YES": 448.1997748552171} | 1 | will-pope-francis-jorge-m-bergoglio | 3821.068182583467 | Will Pope Francis (Jorge M. Bergoglio) stay Pope through 2023? | 1704063540000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9684845186338928 | True | play | YES | public | 1664714391040 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\", if Jorge M. Bergoglio is still head of Catholic Church as Pope Francis on January 1, 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If for any reason Pope Francis leaves the Vat... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704211612643 | 691 | itsTomekK | 1704211644754 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 38 | 0 | 1 | 18 | [{"name": "Religion", "slug": "religion", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Oc6SrO47XuiKvrcujdXq", "createdTime": 1664714391432}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "createdTime": 1668708858611}, {"n... | ["religion", "tomeks-specials", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704050545284 | 1704211644074 | 0.95 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MUfl4QpW9v1YTkuAljia | how-many-units-will-the-steam-deck | 827.7474388718564 | How many units will the Steam Deck have sold by the end of 2023? | 1704088740000 | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1664818041317 | Lars Doucet | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the Steam Deck, Valve's handheld PC gaming machine:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/steamdeck", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 540.0000000000001 | LarsDoucet | 1715701925237 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "5a1293280bda", "prob": 0.0320876972675524, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.623187230841807, "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 18.79818868297249, "textFts": "", "contractId": "MUfl4QpW9v1YTkuAljia", "createdTime": 1664818042096, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 33 | 5 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1664818041867}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1683511343025}, {"name": "�... | ["gaming", "ancient-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 1700732010732 | 1715701923737 | True | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gd7uEFV79sJBWn7h3oiH | what-team-will-win-serie-a-202223-56eadf75a63f | 4418.214984941398 | What team will win Serie A 2022/23? | 1684430242999 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.628506576113031 | True | play | 3cf3784b3d9c | public | 1664819692831 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to whichever team wins 2022/2023 season of Serie A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.legaseriea.it/en/serie-a/league-table", "type": "text", "marks": [{"typ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684430242999 | 740 | itsTomekK | 1684430254966 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "bd013893a2ce", "prob": 0.0007266119142708967, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0016545606600895692, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.2754353515660304, "textFts": "", "contractId": "Gd7uEFV79sJBWn7h3oiH", "createdTime": 1664819693362, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "wee... | 6 | [{"name": "Soccer", "slug": "soccer", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "ypd6vR44ZzJyN9xykx6e", "createdTime": 1664819693221}] | ["soccer"] | 1684424918413 | 1684430252959 | {"3cf3784b3d9c": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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t7YeoHSyogFO0vQ7f0sR | who-will-win-the-oakland-mayoral-el | 3379.5069139552047 | Who will win the Oakland mayoral election held 2022-11-08? | 1669144103019 | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.637225816945751 | True | play | 2935e22829af | public | 1664823941902 | Mike Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the winner of the Oakland mayoral election when the SF Chronicle and the Mercury News call the election, or when the election is certified by the Alameda County Department of Elections and the Alameda County Board of S... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669144103019 | 760.0000000000002 | MikeChenSF | 1669144387299 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | 0 | 10 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "09f25b6e60d0", "prob": 0.001999239759522213, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.006833111148452064, "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 3.4110216588492555, "textFts": "", "contractId": "t7YeoHSyogFO0vQ7f0sR", "createdTime": 1664823942730, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week"... | 1 | 9 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664823966561}, {"name": "California", "slug": "california", "userId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "groupId": "72sPPf5PTwnQQWGdZ5cR", "createdTime": 1664823942550}, {"name": ... | ["california", "politics-default", "us-politics"] | 1669143467256 | 1669144385463 | {"2935e22829af": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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eNNewmp35svur7TedkSV | which-hogwarts-house-is-the-best-po | 387 | Which Hogwarts house is the best? (POLL) | 1665385140000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.712758986405176 | True | play | MKT | public | 1664830998532 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to PROB, to my answers only, based off the results of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this poll:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://strawpoll.com/polls/e2nav54kMgB", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-70... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665441540456 | 740 | Sinclair | 1665290988790 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "25e82a6deb41", "prob": 0.04216402649587425, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 1.0615703755272579, "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 24.115588063815164, "textFts": "", "contractId": "eNNewmp35svur7TedkSV", "createdTime": 1664830999131, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664830998966}] | ["fun"] | 1665290988625 | 1664838717840 | {"3f7d3beb6aad": 16.666666666666668, "856dfefd70e9": 12.5, "c4a8cc29eb7b": 50, "ef2022122af4": 20.833333333333332} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | K9MVrehciHn9oJ0hqdVz | {"NO": 83.36157713463004, "YES": 119.95934270593128} | 0.43 | is-hotdog-a-sandwich-poll | 785.8271211383812 | Is hotdog a sandwich (POLL) | 1665385140000 | 0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.789124772412297 | True | play | MKT | public | 1664831361521 | Sinclair Chen | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to PROB, based off the results of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this poll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://strawpoll.com/polls/PbZqodJJAnN", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665441631173 | 100 | Sinclair | 1668306048536 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 30 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "0k1suGSJKVUnHbCPEhHNpgZPkUP2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664831362070}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1665361045476 | 1668306047455 | 0.43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kqp3H7OucZV34H1NMRrO | who-will-win-the-2022-nobel-prize-i-06567845b79f | 171381.09927719278 | What movie will win Oscar 2023 for Best Picture? | 1678688316874 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.615517441787275 | True | basic | 50dd04654355 | public | 1664833369733 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the title of a movie, which wins 95th Academy Award (Oscar) for Best Picture.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type":... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1678688316874 | 17219.999999999996 | itsTomekK | 1679092236062 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 7 | 457 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "d414b28a2f31", "prob": 0.002, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.0052866689188995055, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 2.6380477905308535, "textFts": "", "contractId": "kqp3H7OucZV34H1NMRrO", "createdTime": 1664833370283, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ... | 2 | 408 | [{"name": "Culture", "slug": "culture-default", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "eJZecx6r22G2NriYYXcC", "createdTime": 1664834161629}, {"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 16648... | ["movies", "entertainment", "culture-default", "oscars-2023"] | 1678687869045 | 1679092222162 | {"50dd04654355": 100} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5770349073195831 | bMQRypeLvsF5YerLCIMq | {"NO": 54268.40442848783, "YES": 29.65728904199932} | 1 | will-manifold-reach-1200-dau-7d-ave | 55757.3632105017 | Will Manifold reach 1200 DAU (7d average) by February 1st? | 1668583481641 | 5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9584292416922935 | True | play | YES | public | 1664835004505 | James | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES as soon as Manifold reaches a 7-day average of at least 1200 Daily Active Users. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if that threshold has not been reached on or before F... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668583481641 | 780 | JamesGrugett | 1668583812619 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 23 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664835005108}, {"name": "Manifold User Retention", "slug": "manifold-user-retention", "userId": "wIuHQ2CzoGSofjPKHBouEzNMcMy2", "groupId": "6b8FKYZGzLnb5hYtn8oG", "createdT... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-user-retention"] | 0.5 | 1668583420651 | 1668583809704 | 0.9682041286127305 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
H7SjClUTNIFnSUbhcwDc | what-number-am-i-thinking-of-second | 59 | What number am I thinking of? Second edition | 1665471540000 | BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.887800333978552 | True | play | 30a19459756f | public | 1664835927649 | nfd | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm thinking of a specific real number. Resolves to the free response that picked it at deadline, else N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(I have previously run a similar market to this one.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665473805045 | 939.9999999999997 | nfd | 1665461803133 | 0 | 9 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "00b7bae1f9c2", "prob": 0.3955539733396622, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 18.364366805932516, "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 28.062588916145476, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H7SjClUTNIFnSUbhcwDc", "createdTime": 1664835928256, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0,... | 8 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664835928108}] | ["fun"] | 1665461801798 | 1665096776213 | {"30a19459756f": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5422022402761376 | Tu3oQJhSPKZL6Ff6LYZ4 | {"NO": 971.7680510878614, "YES": 1014.8058811210103} | 0.5314275333993906 | will-the-ea-forum-support-users-est | 321.2336768721097 | Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030? | 1890863940000 | lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.658098771082537 | False | basic | public | 1664836651703 | Nathan Young | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 4.440892098500626e-16, "week": 4.440892098500626e-16, "month": 4.440892098500626e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | NathanpmYoung | 1712788800579 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c | 12 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Effective Altruism", "slug": "effective-altruism", "userId": "lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33", "groupId": "znYsWa9eZRkBvSHwmaNz", "createdTime": 1664836652106}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 168... | ["effective-altruism", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1712788797335 | 1668732749625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.49999999999999933 | S0xGJwtBKu1jpiRfKfLi | {"NO": 300.00000000000097, "YES": 33.33333333333334} | 1 | will-i-get-my-apple-watch-move-and-1b6ca48baebd | 333.49573777637397 | Will I get my Apple Watch Move and Exercise rings 6 of 7 times AND achieve my Emile bedtime goal this week? (570cal/50min/12:10amx4) | 1665349909453 | 7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.063607220094098 | True | play | YES | public | 1664839853581 | Charlie | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In bed by 12:10am 4 times. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Move goal: 570cal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exercise goal: 50min", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665349909453 | 100 | Charlie | 1665102624039 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c | 2 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664839854014}, {"name": "Charlie's Weekly Health Goals", "slug": "charlies-weekly-health-goals", "userId": "7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1", "groupId": "4qCARQhQzQegY8g6D7sm",... | ["personal-goals", "charlies-weekly-health-goals"] | 0.5 | 1665102623862 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.5 | GgfkIbjZa0J4So6hx5Pc | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.5 | amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear | 0 | AMPLIFIED ODDS 100x: Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023? | 1664841282833 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7725887222397816 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1664841240510 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664841282833 | 100 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1664841738834 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | [{"name": "Amplified Odds", "slug": "amplified-odds", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "wCaJFZ3e3k4cGwfTyKpv", "createdTime": 1667701348545}] | ["amplified-odds"] | 0.5 | 1664841736751 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.34634213316415474 | 0KAiE4pWi23Qrxp1BSsI | {"NO": 1055.6476120042405, "YES": 5279.262571974713} | 0.09579990737024113 | amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear-767e27d543c2 | 50465.713970459336 | AMPLIFIED ODDS 100x: Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023? | 1704041999000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 3.398478879974509e-15 | 0.29002845073905226 | True | basic | CANCEL | public | 1664841411539 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This rule resolves YES if the referenced market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " If the referenced market resolves NO, I will get a random number using a predetermined seed. If i... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704301109588 | 1920 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1704301110389 | 3.9 | 13 | 289 | 0 | 1 | 28 | [{"name": "Derivative Markets", "slug": "derivative-markets", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "9qGjaJrSyTvLCZ2KcJ1m", "createdTime": 1664841470997}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664841468994}, {"nam... | ["olivia", "derivative-markets", "nuclear-risk", "randomization", "amplified-odds", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "fairlyrandom"] | 0.1673413792592212 | 0.5 | 1704040429992 | 1704274890429 | 0.1 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000003 | 55C1h3OXOv3AO1JYomcs | {"NO": 293.20508075688775, "YES": 34.105820998004994} | 1 | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-0176675f0c98 | 230.65648363212776 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on October 4, 2022? | 1664910000000 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.3252402700145467 | True | play | YES | public | 1664841749697 | Predictor 🔥 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1664922029705 | 100 | Predictor | 1664899721389 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1664841750334}] | ["wall-street-bets"] | 0.5 | 1664899721193 | 0.895799923512645 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
H8Dc6yCj4TkvJfoOitYr | what-keyboard-should-i-get | 57 | What keyboard should I get? | 1665460740000 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.890826398246325 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1664842172788 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I currently have an Orion G910. Lately it's been sending keystrokes many times, and it's been a long time since I got a new one.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What should I replace it with? ... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665473971373 | 300 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1665505951558 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "7b37a84b7bd0", "prob": 0.4056959714390036, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.223323489374366, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 58.92314657958451, "textFts": "", "contractId": "H8Dc6yCj4TkvJfoOitYr", "createdTime": 1664842173400, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, ... | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1664842192639}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1664842190891}, {"name": "Recommendations", "... | ["recommendations", "olivia", "gaming", "programming"] | 1665344002822 | 1665505949061 | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.28914789405879476 | yXdlQ9nrv5zqI2QSt9xA | {"NO": 256.17479403158103, "YES": 959.495944205424} | 0 | will-vladimir-putin-be-removed-from-00200cf9c7ae | 985.4952024283183 | Will Vladimir Putin be removed from power XOR will Russia use a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2022? | 1672552740000 | zIuWK5TTwBakOPjl8vyaZvJMeUC3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2792353728375971 | True | play | NO | public | 1664842493319 | Alex Power | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a correlation market. What is the correlation between \"Russia uses nuclear weapons\" and \"Putin being removed from power in Russia\"?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question w... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673037172994 | 420 | AlexPower | 1672756035027 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxoCcmx5CfZQiJB-3xgHRPCziYoDxcI8WrVh_6B=s96-c | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 1671403690167 | 1672756030464 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.760088267733796 | 1fCTVhfiuPj7IejheEa7 | {"NO": 1179.583703220639, "YES": 927.8569262319307} | 0.8011030612329587 | will-there-be-easy-autotranslation | 534.9789597877541 | Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)? | 1854849540000 | 1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.641567637986647 | False | basic | public | 1664843957875 | Stochastic Cockatoo | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FWIW I can already hold very simple conversations with grandma in WeChat w/WeChat auto-translate but there is a lot of loss in fidelity in the process..", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.009290004796607132} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.7162582155175768, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | StochasticParrot | 1719102280218 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1664843958373}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238274}] | ["ai", "china"] | 0.5 | 1719102277169 | 1676009535466 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4972298685547048 | buCpbHKZUkDAqrywHcYT | {"NO": 159.56034191490025, "YES": 157.41575565066634} | 1 | will-any-new-proof-about-the-safety-e539a3b0b971 | 365.6448784161802 | Will any new proof about the safety of transferring RL agents from one environment to another be published by March 2023? | 1677657600000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9567402758114878 | True | play | YES | public | 1664845037619 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Published\" means in some kind of peer-reviewed outlet, OR by some established research group in whatever outlet they use, OR at my discretion. This rule is here to save me from checking someone's 100 page wordpress proof claiming to solve alignm... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1692737740154 | 160 | vluzko | 1692737737994 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 35 | 11 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664845038026}, {"name": "Technical AI Safety", "slug": "technical-ai-safety", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "nGoGff9mTYMUkyi7cTSk", "c... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "technical-ai-safety", "ai-alignment"] | 0.5 | 1677646325070 | 1692737735910 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6709945644867347 | GNTGl45GiKoCazc2ff9X | {"NO": 11372.304137477004, "YES": 74.48904275698624} | 1 | i-will-resolve-this-market-however-9f55c0dc45c3 | 12147.516924548157 | I will resolve this market however I want to | 1684819688487 | XE84xIex6Eeaq3SkN9CASIKliBG2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.1395553007271793 | True | play | YES | public | 1664848197211 | Alex Lien | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will do whatever I want to", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1684819693142 | 400 | Marsteralex | 1684819684861 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "XE84xIex6Eeaq3SkN9CASIKliBG2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664848197744}] | ["fun"] | 0.5 | 1684819684655 | 1 |
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