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0.45558797580648536 | HLN6C6VQDnokMNWhd69B | {"NO": 111.20423813727224, "YES": 180.37993857053434} | 1 | will-keith-ellison-be-reelected-as | 261.6949837300743 | Will Keith Ellison be reelected as Minnesota Attorney General in 2022? | 1667908800000 | vJ6VPmsVGcYIqr2YpUX2U9qIR2x2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.218171985399751 | True | play | YES | public | 1664851786459 | Samuel | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves \"YES\" if Keith Ellison wins the 2022 MN AG election as determined by a consensus of media outlets and/or MN Sec of State certification", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 3, 10:09pm: ", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1668020344681 | 140 | Samuele | 1668020340567 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmnjCeTSNH_s3cbrIXoA73JV1PwRqDK9rejLBjsYPg=s96-c | 11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | [{"name": "US 2022 Midterms", "slug": "us-2022-midterms", "userId": "vJ6VPmsVGcYIqr2YpUX2U9qIR2x2", "groupId": "y2e0hHBab86vdAkUJx9w", "createdTime": 1664851786917}] | ["us-2022-midterms"] | 0.5 | 1667908364541 | 1668020334294 | 0.340332144960602 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.2976880898386489 | nlWl5dzpoy1GURQDJyxJ | {"NO": 912.8920189576426, "YES": 1178.681756730247} | 0.2471509058706558 | will-there-be-a-well-accepted-forma | 709.4579461868594 | Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030? | 1893484800000 | acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 9.59220257060619 | False | basic | public | 1664856737069 | Vincent Luczkow | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Well-accepted: if there's a definition accepted by even 25% of the research community I'll resolve yes. If there are multiple similar-but-competing definitions covering 50% of the community I'll resolve yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph... | BINARY | {"day": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "week": 1.6653345369377348e-16, "month": 1.6653345369377348e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | vluzko | 1687639676038 | 0.1 | 23 | 0 | 20 | [{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1664856737464}, {"name": "Technical AI Safety", "slug": "technical-ai-safety", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "nGoGff9mTYMUkyi7cTSk", "c... | ["technical-ai-timelines", "technical-ai-safety", "ai-alignment"] | 0.10428629131287254 | 0.5 | 1687639675922 | 1665001131059 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.28594961205647357 | Ha1DiiP6eDZwWf1pfkeZ | {"NO": 157.9161246734367, "YES": 2900.7732116628795} | 0 | will-elon-musk-get-a-new-rank-in-ru | 6405.346618960562 | Will Elon Musk get a new rank in Russia by Nov 30th 2022? | 1669863540000 | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.7630487381971816 | True | play | NO | public | 1664864636861 | MP | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On October 3rd 2022, President Medvedev tweeted acknowledging Musk for his efforts for the Russian espionage after Musk tried to settle the Ukranian war with a Twitter pool and leaving Crimea to Russia and Ukraine as an independent state. Supposedl... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1670013335611 | 430 | MP | 1710451914210 | 0 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 19 | 0 | 1 | 17 | [{"name": "🌍 World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}] | ["world-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "fun"] | 0.5 | 1669862989841 | 1669814711111 | 0.021335709807040703 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5014278735278981 | myjfcvtjM9yphoWgWMRY | {"NO": 56.48332459337705, "YES": 341.474361309998} | 0 | will-arbitragebot-lose-more-than-m1 | 725.8923613252741 | Will @ArbitrageBot lose more than M$100 on a group of related markets before the end of January 2023? | 1675227540000 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5473704105518293 | True | play | NO | public | 1664865135689 | Jenny | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if there is a group of related markets that have been arbitraged by ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "GYwh8DpU6tS0uY9dx8bGWczxZM02", "label": "ArbitrageBot"}}, {"text": " and a 72-hour period before t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675714389088 | 140 | Jenny | 1675300033094 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1664865176237}, {"name": "Predictions on Predictions", "slug": "predictions-on-predictions", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "qV4UN8VsCFzmchCqdVFK", "created... | ["trading-bots", "predictions-on-predictions"] | 0.5 | 1675114244262 | 1675300009726 | 0.14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.24260394959226012 | mwwO1mqSiE2VWdXLZ7AN | {"NO": 633.5989518432503, "YES": 6259.198406532583} | 0.03140597974751094 | will-russia-be-broken-up-by-the-end | 9454.89760478244 | Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024? | 1735707540000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0.0161567527503968 | 9.96832993632447 | False | basic | public | 1664891759615 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any part of Russian breaks off from the motherland and forms a new state, similar to what happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, by the end of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.11688578995144837, "platformFee": 0.11688578995144837, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1195 | BTE | 1713890740520 | 2.6 | 67 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664891760243}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182226233}] | ["global-macro", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.13749175004939038 | 0.5 | 1713890737167 | 1684780119699 | False | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.09268676812018663 | 1MFV7nwrJ392lMQER2NQ | {"NO": 367.90510333533007, "YES": 3032.7113336984153} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated | 3644.505226854635 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.4339750682123293 | True | play | NO | public | 1664893024065 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if any nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type": "text"},... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672727107128 | 500 | jack | 1672075430360 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 32 | [{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1664893042612}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664893024471}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "s... | ["russia", "ukraine", "nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672075430065 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3535802748951695 | A9C7Ol7FbKUvCjbJ37bz | {"NO": 2604.494142042233, "YES": 116459.86392843783} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475 | 498638.89912176196 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included) | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.10788466764170668 | True | plus | NO | public | 1664893189466 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672550457400 | 10280 | jack | 1704322734749 | 0 | 2 | 1299 | 0 | 1 | 1053 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664893189884}, {"name": "☢️ Nuclear", "slug": "nuclear", "groupId": "27a193db-f997-4533-86a6-386d9a915045", "createdTime": 1704322695159}, {"name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopo... | ["nuclear-risk", "nuclear", "geopolitics", "wars"] | 0.5 | 1672545931341 | 1700170408578 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.336554560576759 | ZlPtmfOvsh4kWKaqElPu | {"NO": 60.07295225383194, "YES": 731.3756283891488} | 0 | will-the-manifold-markets-account-h | 868.0368496872802 | Will the Manifold Markets account have an untrustworthy creator badge? | 1672531140000 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.048445575013363 | True | play | NO | public | 1664893979593 | Manifold | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if this account ever has an \"untrustworthy\" badge next to it in 2022 from having too many misresolved markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Context: You can now flag resolved markets a... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672605168340 | 160 | Manifold | 1671142337058 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 14 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664893980088}, {"name": "Manibadges", "slug": "manibadges", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "YGk89aVeKcgK8RDHT4bp", "createdTime": 1672112567559}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manibadges"] | 0.5 | 1671142336863 | 1665012615489 | 0.04 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000002 | P3APEqRVc5UFCED9BqxC | {"NO": 38.69507642164959, "YES": 258.43081148187287} | 0.13023125212911105 | if-a-russian-nuclear-weapon-strikes | 326.2917498169104 | IF a Russian nuclear weapon strikes Ukraine in 2022, will it target a major population centre? | 1672617540000 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.2073462072303114 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1664894638427 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A if a Russian nuclear weapon doesn't strike Ukrainian territory in 2022. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to YES if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FIRST", "type": "text", "marks"... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1679450914533 | 100 | FRCassarino | 1667246569650 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 5 | 0 | 16 | 4 | [{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1671066121767}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1671066119284}, {"name": "... | ["nuclear-risk", "russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "world-default", "please-resolve"] | 0.5 | 1667246569520 | 1664896508559 | 0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.05648736504352102 | PdKQoBOuvGDwTsZCewbY | {"NO": 990.9142066871979, "YES": 5891.667890270957} | 0 | will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb | 34836.142939710655 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively (non-test) in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.71987182279539 | True | basic | NO | public | 1664894913025 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type": "text"}... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672550503911 | 1160 | jack | 1672533849015 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 1 | 52 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664894913440}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1672533848901 | 1664896863006 | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.12501000786328098 | 3PuiquNzWf3eLy8OigJP | {"NO": 65.99128674614394, "YES": 1597.841515794111} | 0 | will-at-least-50k-ukrainians-die-fr | 1787.2165460856222 | Will at least 50K Ukrainians die from Nuclear attacks in 2022? | 1672617540000 | tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 6.229374401083305 | True | play | NO | public | 1664895049533 | FRC | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event of needing a body count, I'll refer to whichever estimates are available. If none are available I'll try to make a reasonable guess. For semi-attributable and delayed-attributable (e.g. some people starving due to infrastructure loss) ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675497896526 | 160 | FRCassarino | 1672630598225 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 7 | 8 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664895049979}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1673669988169}, {... | ["nuclear-risk", "please-resolve", "ukrainerussia-war"] | 0.5 | 1672615635225 | 1672630595249 | False | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.1530211657006168 | zfJQa2RCLESkd5T22pLi | {"NO": 133.23820624892883, "YES": 1663.272955619541} | 0 | will-a-tactical-nonstrategic-nuclea | 2058.109541529571 | Will a tactical (nonstrategic) nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.457444450750804 | True | play | NO | public | 1664895535990 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if a tactical (nonstrategic) nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherw... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672549720893 | 240 | jack | 1670299729993 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664895536569}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1670299729831 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.18350965024060945 | vQfo2GSy85ZTiC9Z8H3P | {"NO": 69.05494554374877, "YES": 1048.0831062822958} | 0 | will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle | 985.0027962733099 | Will a strategic (not tactical) nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.990491319167205 | True | play | NO | public | 1664895640719 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if a strategic nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672549752135 | 160 | jack | 1670248739185 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664895641169}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1670248739043 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000000000000001 | rIhGIFxq1y1dXai5J5Pq | {"NO": 11.876907012110276, "YES": 841.9700507719307} | 0 | will-a-countervalue-nuclear-weapon | 782.4113870521094 | Will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur in 2022? | 1672549140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 4.710064662454132 | True | play | NO | public | 1664896313598 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if a nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672549759962 | 100 | jack | 1667246569177 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664896314300}] | ["nuclear-risk"] | 0.5 | 1667246569085 | 0.01 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
tl4fUkWE3lMzaaNMEsKg | who-is-the-father-of-lana-rhoades-b | 365.0277797265485 | Who is the father of Lana Rhoades' baby? | 1697061540000 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.80917154771475 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1664898335972 | Tomek ⚡ K | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to whoever becomes confirmed as father of Milo, son of pornstar Lana Rhoades.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Milo was born at the beginning of 2022.... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697064679007 | 440 | itsTomekK | 1697056986564 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "b826f7cec080", "prob": 0.18424330808080958, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.50723650076442, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 46.5218985609873, "textFts": "", "contractId": "tl4fUkWE3lMzaaNMEsKg", "createdTime": 1664898336224, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "Entertainment and Pop Culture", "slug": "entertainment", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "XU1fOYURSnb58lgsqaly", "createdTime": 1668809247463}, {"name": "Tomek's 🟡 specials", "slug": "tomeks-specials", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Tnqa2ZTn9jMpD7wSBWGJ", "created... | ["tomeks-specials", "entertainment", "parenting"] | 1697056986391 | 1664898436249 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6736804950035892 | S9HzcIpja7IQk7bVfijB | {"NO": 329.7367783654696, "YES": 119.5305284252541} | 0.8506364879329879 | will-my-african-grey-parrot-be-aliv | 168.3664193742666 | Will my African Grey Parrot be alive at the beginning of 2030? | 1893474000000 | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | play | public | 1664900030734 | Isaac King | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her name is Ada. She's about 5 years old as of 2022. African Grey Parrots have a life expectancy of ~45 years in captivity, but they're subject to a number of diseases and other conditions that can kill them without much warning. (Parrots try to hi... | BINARY | {"day": -5.551115123125783e-16, "week": -5.551115123125783e-16, "month": -5.551115123125783e-16} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 180 | IsaacKing | 1706736619215 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 0.5 | 1704698676937 | 1706736617610 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.28831688758961593 | fuKqT84sm4cWsrPFW7RE | {"NO": 58.92517286860824, "YES": 1914.0935262440134} | 0 | will-manifold-implement-uniswap-v3-eaf1c6547588 | 2313.7475392292386 | Will Manifold implement Uniswap v3 for range liquidity before 2024? | 1704085140000 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 3.5127871295768807 | True | play | NO | public | 1664936299367 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by December 31, 2023, Manifold implements some form of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3", "class": ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1704138956048 | 200 | jack | 1704138956361 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1664936300127}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703124444017}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"] | 0.5 | 1704069899839 | 1665092283374 | 0.01 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.19324985593416558 | e2HSmx4WUVhIYOqDNiob | {"NO": 183.11603625347138, "YES": 848.5394994433157} | 0 | will-biden-publicly-use-the-word-la | 4913.358392981336 | Will Biden publicly use the word "Latinx" at some point in 2022? | 1672552740000 | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.392877944235173 | True | play | NO | public | 1664937221128 | BRTD | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Joe Biden publicly says \"Latinx\" in any type of speech or statement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 7, 9:24am: This market only resolves YES if Joe Biden verbally speaks the word... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672554741379 | 280 | BRTD | 1672318466692 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 74 | 0 | 1 | 60 | [{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "U0HGS0lz7CTVT7UWDBE5T3VSl7u1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665187815123}] | ["us-politics"] | 0.5 | 1672318466479 | 1665168489016 | 0.05 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4999999999999968 | NhXTt088kqCpC857ML7g | {"NO": 3691.3933470525535, "YES": 24.38103760247145} | 1 | will-velocity-surpass-me-on-the-lea | 18578.79972351128 | Will Velocity surpass me on the leaderboards before the end of 2022? | 1665344644951 | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.212208457362485 | True | play | YES | public | 1664941137531 | SG | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Man versus Machine", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the bot Velocity (", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "w1knZ6yBvEhRThYPEYTwlmGv7N33", "label": "v"}}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665344644951 | 300 | SG | 1665346654406 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "Trading Bots", "slug": "trading-bots", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "kCrjmHWxycGEmZsHwaW8", "createdTime": 1665279666593}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665279665466}, ... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "trading-bots", "sketchy"] | 0.5 | 1665344634505 | 1665346650905 | 0.990355263363496 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3931404666239608 | cPukt2SE8bkImemTpxUI | {"NO": 280.8337432286393, "YES": 440.70921217092086} | 0 | conditional-on-elon-taking-control | 710.6264048431567 | Will Twitter lose users overall during the coming quarter? | 1673483290133 | 8WijWMNV67c7RetI6OG4soOyPt02 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1117616658596252 | True | play | NO | public | 1664944437173 | brainiac256 | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monetizable Daily Active Users as reported by Twitter's quarterly filings, accessible here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://investor.twitterinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "lin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673483290133 | 340 | brainiac256 | 1710451936513 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 22 | [{"name": "✖️ X (Twitter)", "slug": "twitter", "groupId": "Y8DDxYXrqOlQFv5AsilH"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}] | ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1671424344851 | 1669533340318 | 0.29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4263295316158377 | LdLibSV036w6bxCjU7o6 | {"NO": 224.0978904051237, "YES": 1915.2193986882255} | 0 | will-xi-jinping-revive-the-title-of | 5461.255380675021 | Will Xi Jinping revive the title of Chairman at the 20th National Party Congress? | 1666493299643 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.9541597370225272 | True | play | NO | public | 1664950730328 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if Xi replaces “General Secretary” with “Chairman” at this years 20th Party Congress. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.wionews.com/world/chinas-xi-all-set-to-usurp-mao-era-chairman-po... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666493299643 | 580 | BTE | 1666492297964 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 13 | [{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1664950730709}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238025}] | ["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"] | 0.5 | 1666492290983 | 1666492298095 | False | 0.08 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.45075643507546426 | eLaHyLHU56PrMRHcMIXM | {"NO": 94.39875528847026, "YES": 218.13389576266582} | 0 | will-the-updated-australian-202223 | 82.27303098795286 | Will the updated Australian 2022-23 budget include measures to increase personal income taxation? | 1666789140000 | d1IrhaLOfgfdKW55VRse873oXxo1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.2896629541990197 | True | play | NO | public | 1664950877157 | Pat | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if the 25 October budget includes a measure that changes the rate scale or an offset that applies to all personal income tax payers that increases income tax.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666943640293 | 140 | psedgley55gmailcom | 1666788662910 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco3TG3fS2WzcUxYoiTbZxYK2lTJV5qcq52yOo53=s96-c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 1666788662423 | 0.2620779834499326 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3842758481929059 | FMLxmuZEEhqMcAh2OlM5 | {"NO": 181.7502878740659, "YES": 3899.61770651022} | 0 | will-the-chinese-communist-party-co | 3737.236373388869 | Will the Chinese Communist Party constitution be modified at the 20th Party Congress to allow for the Premier to serve more than two terms? | 1666527062256 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.1819372695673018 | True | play | NO | public | 1664960580015 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the constitution is modified to allow Li Keqiang to serve a third term as premier. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 12, 7:45am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the Chinese Communist Party cons... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666527062256 | 630 | BTE | 1666494349575 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 11 | [{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1664960580401}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182237972}] | ["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"] | 0.5 | 1666443727091 | 1666494347094 | False | 0.02826555844650236 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4866064380353313 | Kj5kMGWkrlOJlILVDYYj | {"NO": 125.05719478404065, "YES": 1980.6439711842384} | 0 | will-a-new-branch-of-xi-jinping-tho | 2493.7167175011236 | Will a new branch of Xi Jinping thought be announced at the 20th Party Congress? | 1666526198141 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3034533996668958 | True | play | NO | public | 1664960792816 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Party debuts new Xi Jinping thought at this year's 20th Party Congress.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 11, 2:30pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a new branch of Xi Jinping thought be an... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666526198141 | 510 | BTE | 1666526195115 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 12 | [{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1664960793282}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238049}] | ["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"] | 0.5 | 1666526193769 | 1666498102794 | False | 0.06176785997863643 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.3439924085910313 | VPE61zleqPFl37JSrkFw | {"NO": 363.82731350597226, "YES": 2791.602857741539} | 0 | will-any-us-political-leaders-visit | 3170.336418271686 | Will any US political leaders visit Taiwan during the 20th Party Congress? | 1666527042253 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0.7595757337886004 | True | play | NO | public | 1664964080206 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a delegation of US politicians make an official visit to Taiwan during the 20th Party Congress. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 9, 11:17pm: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content":... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666527042253 | 740 | BTE | 1666455903756 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 14 | [{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1664964080636}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181868034}, {"name": "China", "slug": "... | ["ccp-20th-party-congress", "us-politics", "china"] | 0.5 | 1666455902427 | 1666440499601 | False | 0.06396932113859766 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jccicEitRAkqEeUQzWHy | manifold-play-chess-8bh4-g5-9 | 78581 | [Manifold play chess] 8.Bh4 g5 9. | 1665050400000 | TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.617097075506619 | True | play | 2f06b037fcc4 | public | 1664965279347 | Alex... | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your move! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the game in lichess:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/rnbqkb1r/p4p2/2p... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665053774311 | 640 | AlexLiesman | 1665058550071 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "c28d51a63679", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 7.333700027502293e-05, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.7332966657499543, "textFts": "", "contractId": "jccicEitRAkqEeUQzWHy", "createdTime": 1664965279958, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":... | 14 | [{"name": "Manifold plays chess", "slug": "manifold-plays-chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ZbnbyDVipy8GQ3qOaBLT", "createdTime": 1664965279805}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1691182007804}] | ["manifold-plays-chess", "chess"] | 1665049826819 | 1665058547022 | False | {"2f06b037fcc4": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.32135122965685786 | D2EDg2eb7aS4nwfQ9B3d | {"NO": 58.644458124716664, "YES": 1544.0665470695858} | 0 | will-the-price-of-1-pallet-of-96x-1 | 1580.8289257350416 | Will the price of 1 Pallet of (96x 10kg bags ) of wood pellet, have reached at some point before february 1st 2023, a minimal price of £1000. Sold in UK by nuera. | 1675708551075 | 5U9bXdFwGxSmZxA8E9ty0YxK1jU2 | cpmm-1 | 3.1893052935201442 | True | play | NO | public | 1664969383695 | yomun | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to yes if at some point before february 1st 2023, on this specific site, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://nuergy.co.uk/product-category/biomass-fuel/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https:... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675708551075 | 200 | yomun | 1675708525778 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml5NruHxe8LooEB8o58IdxFc1yAoC-vCQyyq8PW=s96-c | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | [{"name": "Energy Crisis", "slug": "energy-crisis", "userId": "5U9bXdFwGxSmZxA8E9ty0YxK1jU2", "groupId": "1hx6HrZb8D9nQsTWDpKM", "createdTime": 1664969384279}, {"name": "Energy", "slug": "energy", "userId": "5U9bXdFwGxSmZxA8E9ty0YxK1jU2", "groupId": "rraS2YIDaAckq3bR5lfQ", "createdTime": 1664970444820}] | ["energy-crisis", "energy"] | 0.5 | 1675708525655 | 1664973108448 | 0.02 |
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