CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

0.6103219946273348

r0ninv84wa9nSJtOKNgu

{"NO": 242.85613683716338, "YES": 89.22176125818544}

0.8099999999999995

if-russia-detonates-a-nuclear-weapo

176.03037610849873

If Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in anger before May 2023, will the largest in the first set be < 100ktons?

1682895660000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

2.4942875736048498

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664969935195

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves according to the largest bomb detonated within an hour of the first nuclear bomb or before significant NATO retaliation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 5, 4:10pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"te...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682896032277

140

NathanpmYoung

1681724144947

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

8

0

1

5

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664977168465}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1664977165987}, {"name": "Geopoli...

["ukraine", "geopolitics", "russia", "nuclear-risk", "wars", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1681660503947

1681724141514

False

0.81

0.20648826483340124

ph05wB5kt11uxCQjrmz7

{"NO": 1403.5921912999634, "YES": 4038.6714310112525}

0.08293617544332962

elon-musk-convicted-of-a-felony-bef

18691.60628425037

Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026

1767196860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-16

8.298943260174857

False

basic

public

1664970635069

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Elon Musk is convicted of a felony in any country. The question resolves as YES if he pleads guilty or is found guilty.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.02845487230567007, "platformFee": 0.02845487230567007, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1780

HarrisonLucas

1713852026072

0.1

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

114

0

91

[{"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🏦 Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "groupId":...

["politics-default", "economics-default", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "crime", "scandal-markets"]

0.13775135635005925

0.5

1713852022679

1671416794497

0.6368431330023934

dRdXZtj8UXiXxkoF2rXE

{"NO": 96726.44539895952, "YES": 235.21623241755535}

1

sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20

217491.81631915842

SBF convicted of a felony before 2026

1698979557728

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

-0.31199015183378176

True

basic

YES

public

1664971573345

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried and found guilty in absentia. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1698979557728

2705

HarrisonLucas

1699012819138

0.3

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

1

438

0

240

[{"name": "FTX Liquidity Crunch (Nov 2022)", "slug": "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "groupId": "DwXE6sNMFQ8hnEq1afHh", "createdTime": 1668125269327}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime":...

["crypto-speculation", "crime", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "sbf-trial"]

0.17724334844295908

0.5

1698976738377

1699012817362

1

0.08002315157219539

NMM9vyBwQrnFqbA8VHu4

{"NO": 556.5280151176731, "YES": 4994.90998937475}

0

if-there-has-been-no-nuclear-strike

11918.0450066874

If there has been no nuclear strike will NATO troops intervene on the ground before April 2023?

1682895660000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

1.8907973050265365

True

play

NO

public

1664972122628

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1682896072787

740

NathanpmYoung

1682895638115

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

1

43

0

1

24

[{"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664977145310}, {"name": "NATO", "slug": "nato", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "Pakn0bNotFIXDGJ4007n", "createdTime": 1664977143758}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", ...

["ukraine", "russia", "nato", "wars", "global-macro"]

0.5

1682895637981

1665139328238

0.01

0.28463475136904776

x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO

{"NO": 2079.4222234190174, "YES": 3209.973663185673}

0.20493042099010597

will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan

77598.5825218039

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

1830293940000

rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2

cpmm-1

0.11607310363032709

4.7797088513347905

False

basic

public

1664976169913

Marlon K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve \"yes\" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is answered \"No\" ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0.008427606701699536, "month": -0.07751514587039651}

0

{"creatorFee": 286.35194357293824, "platformFee": 37.392498345045404, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

2400

MarlonK

1720042116368

2.3

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmkjJuJYgeJb2lZ9FpLV6xz2gBSl1YvTcUInqL2z=s96-c

16

364

2

48

[{"name": "Chinese Politics", "slug": "chinese-politics", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "v6naCMPo0bZDsej1tNlq", "createdTime": 1664976216170}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "wars", "userId": "rnLYAc5m5mdMtpVbDSu3IZsMufE2", "groupId": "B71vip8fPvi3c64vSWUz", "createdTime": 1664976209283}, {"name": "Geo...

["china", "taiwan", "geopolitics", "wars", "chinese-politics", "world-default", "global-macro", "asia", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict"]

0.18710432612386205

0.5

1720042113281

1716462007041

0.24822462337593748

wQYmu7PEZAe9LOKi75AR

{"NO": 49.13728375146849, "YES": 948.1179470959926}

0

weekly-nft-trading-volume-will-achi

848.2085302765913

Weekly NFT trading volume will achieve a new all time high before Jan 1st 2023

1672527540000

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

cpmm-1

0

4.349451229699731

True

play

NO

public

1664978577705

Magnus Hambleton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Looking at weekly number of NFT transactions, defined as the block does. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theblock.co/data/nft-non-fungible-tokens/nft-overview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.the...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672672345792

140

Mag

1672524848171

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c

9

0

1

8

0.5

1672524848024

1664985074609

0.02

0.5860243121298597

5wjCgCE967jazjY0xzLJ

{"NO": 666.0550758287038, "YES": 27.586317564250457}

0

weekly-nft-trading-volume-will-achi-72a2db330c1e

1354.764346294743

Weekly NFT trading volume will achieve a new all time high before Jan 1st 2024

1704063540000

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

cpmm-1

0

3.938124017847292

True

play

NO

public

1664978674717

Magnus Hambleton

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Looking at weekly number of NFT transactions, defined as the block does. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theblock.co/data/nft-non-fungible-tokens/nft-overview", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.the...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704210306485

220

Mag

1704318203321

0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiuBf5z98TB2cfhe9XjIiILUkrpblyydYtJlpUe6dg=s96-c

16

0

1

9

[{"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1703125613605}]

["new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.09908425191201022

0.5

1704003166229

1704318202436

0.97

xawbUvzCOqQ5lES9uTwchwiIQbp2

0.30969442425640414

cxo9jVeeTNHTzcn21gVG

{"NO": 70.68607911395033, "YES": 1193.0714431101144}

0

will-coinbase-list-lunc-luna-classi

1341.4830166316378

Will Coinbase list LUNC (Luna Classic Token)

1672552740000

8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2

cpmm-1

0

2.9632036720304047

True

play

NO

public

1664979686435

BowTrix

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if Coinbase lists LUNC (Luna Classic Token) before the end of the year. It will resolve to NO if the end of the year has come around and there has been no listing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672638014097

220

BowTrix

1672551909768

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiOUBr3ZOXZh_RY9acEaMdEVJSPC4HHbyyP8Sh-Gw=s96-c

10

0

1

10

[{"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "userId": "8KW1Kt5kIwXg3kJMejIFxgWrtjh2", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1664979687023}]

["crypto-speculation"]

0.5

1672551902493

1672551906937

0.03

0.1216376973969516

C67SZwiGO7uiigsQWwRF

{"NO": 335.10122617013525, "YES": 545.0276697394878}

0.07846297263725295

if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-in

1431.787505876724

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine in 2022, will NATO detonate a nuclear weapon offensively within 1 month?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.9993075840007521

True

play

CANCEL

public

1664980869267

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if no nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, as per the question ", "type":...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672727136240

400

jack

1670535490383

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

30

0

1

27

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1664980869710}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223130}]

["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1670535490132

False

0.08

QIbcHyrxmLDXpwFNZ0qf

who-will-win-oscar-2023-for-best-ac

11736.993709537242

Who will win Oscar 2023 for Best Actor?

1678727040000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.619701584102732

True

basic

b7c009fc5383

public

1664986094299

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the name of an actor, who wins 95th Academy Award (Oscar) for Best Actor in a Leading Role.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-13 6:04 ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680027414808

1480

itsTomekK

1679576844320

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

37

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "105dadbf14de", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 9.000450033752814e-05, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.8999549988749438, "textFts": "", "contractId": "QIbcHyrxmLDXpwFNZ0qf", "createdTime": 1664986094866, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month":...

4

24

[{"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1664986094724}]

["oscars-2023"]

1678719053093

1679576841811

{"b7c009fc5383": 100}

True

0.2923813799617111

ErJ6sNZCcx07lufHtt1c

{"NO": 165.92013814121435, "YES": 2679.9903857293484}

0

will-biden-ban-the-export-of-gasoli

2797.268886190486

Will Biden ban the export of gasoline before the end of October?

1667275140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.665038956536487

True

play

NO

public

1664986619335

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden’s team had floated this and he has the authority. Resolves YES if it happens. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667290944290

468.19672131147547

BTE

1667274326822

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

31

0

1

27

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1664986619757}]

["global-macro"]

0.5

1667274326731

1666024691363

0.02494286792894897

S4fJkXtNcU7M3ndOiYyh

test-c7f2fa05b251

150

test

1664987855517

jFhh0IVkFvZj5hWVdC7zIpFdS593

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.797109350291603

True

play

65a97cab57b6

public

1664987828132

JG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "test", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1664987855517

240

JG

1664987842308

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmPmANzQEexcK1Y4ulEbVFwzGn3hwe1_O_MTuBX=s96-c

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "9a89cf138ea9", "prob": 0.16, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 16.759133970124218, "userId": "jFhh0IVkFvZj5hWVdC7zIpFdS593", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 87.98545334315212, "textFts": "", "contractId": "S4fJkXtNcU7M3ndOiYyh", "createdTime": 1664987828690, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "...

1

[{"name": "Jokes", "slug": "jokes", "userId": "jFhh0IVkFvZj5hWVdC7zIpFdS593", "groupId": "2zIDGOz7Q1vYxKsRNKlY", "createdTime": 1664987828539}]

["jokes"]

1664987842031

{"65a97cab57b6": 100}

True

0.484684045203026

Vlko4twJvaAwgEbU4ugM

{"NO": 203.8858997188204, "YES": 193.28028880319}

0.4980340405691483

in-2040-what-will-the-prevailing-op

151.71625661526423

In 2040, what will the prevailing opinion of Edward Snowden be? Resolves as % from traitor to hero.

2208988860000

lkkqZxiWCpOgtJ9ztJcAKz4d9y33

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664988626485

Nathan Young

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

NathanpmYoung

1683689892528

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgkQaxe_5plRQ-3y-nDcRIXjbUwl4yBWOweF_D8ZA=s96-c

0

7

0

7

[{"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736989801}]

["ancient-markets"]

0.5

1683689892377

1664992530641

fGBD0mb0IOzxQpIvXTs9

this-market-will-resolve-to-the-opt

410.07161997637405

This market will resolve to the option with the lowest percentage

1665685556232

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.997036098201458

True

play

889b235e6180

public

1664989056678

arae

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to the option with the LOWEST percentage (other than \"subsidy\"). If multiple options have the same odds and no option has loser odds, it will resolve to each of those options equally. It will close in one week, plus a ran...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665685556232

320

a

1665688895357

0

https://firebasestorage.…33e-f49d13c87650

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "98ab0d604123", "prob": 0.873233531110987, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 39.893846761639615, "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 5.791351229880423, "textFts": "", "contractId": "fGBD0mb0IOzxQpIvXTs9", "createdTime": 1664989057233, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

4

[{"name": "Meta-Forecasting", "slug": "metaforecasting", "userId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "groupId": "aWVjDvevw8dDKKbURvgx", "createdTime": 1664989057077}]

["metaforecasting"]

1665001822966

1665688893195

{"889b235e6180": 100}

True

0.506181125279297

a2k1aZosboO1zwRyaIc3

{"NO": 209.85708634630458, "YES": 230.11568820271305}

0.4831489702949533

will-annual-secondary-pe-transactio

74.55172460885427

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $500B by 2030

1903849140000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664989616036

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves yes if, per volume estimates by Jefferies Private Capital Advisory Group, annual PE secondary market volume has surpassed $500B in any of the years 2022-2029. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -5.551115123125783e-17, "week": -5.551115123125783e-17, "month": -5.551115123125783e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

220

CarsonGale

1683386057806

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

8

0

4

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670359790055}, {"name": "Secondary Private Equity", "slug": "secondary-private-equity", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "vfs3YP4g4Ad0ZNK1IELS", "creat...

["secondary-private-equity", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1683386057664

0.6142686742305441

RvPXYrDavxArGO4h0Iw3

{"NO": 243.9992350973917, "YES": 114.34707092180486}

0.7726293825356032

will-annual-transaction-volume-in-g

94.69095427888345

Will annual transaction volume in GP-led PE secondaries be greater than LP-led in FY 2025?

1777618740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664990296929

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"yes\" if, per the annual Jefferies PCA report, GP-led PE secondaries account for a greater % of total PE secondaries transaction volume than LP-led secondaries.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

160

CarsonGale

1679785342532

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

5

0

3

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670347328605}, {"name": "Secondary Private Equity", "slug": "secondary-private-equity", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "vfs3YP4g4Ad0ZNK1IELS", "creat...

["secondary-private-equity", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1679785342423

0.5000000000000001

wzelaXn8RyRWn7cU2AfL

{"NO": 37.26665107203775, "YES": 268.33642713614506}

0

will-i-give-up-fried-foods-and-soda

306.2467751287181

Will I give up fried foods and soda for a month?

1665009098374

Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2

cpmm-1

0

3.2411634901084656

True

play

NO

public

1664991765697

Jenny

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/short-2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/short-2", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indig...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665009098374

100

Jenny

1665069021386

0

https://firebasestorage.…dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0

9

0

9

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1664992032465}, {"name": "Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p", "createdTime": 1664992038460}]

["fun", "personal-goals"]

0.5

1665007292539

1665069034145

0.3076923076923077

0.47633389040004154

WZO8vdiLLCMPiNU3kQ6Z

{"NO": 176.98057497533873, "YES": 181.53510762416238}

0.48

what-will-the-democracy-index-of-uk

91.45885849741853

What will the Democracy Index of Ukraine be in 2022?

1676486495018

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

1.7782762968954051

True

play

MKT

public

1664992688881

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per The Economist's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Democracy Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " score for U...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676486495018

180

Tetraspace

1675621653535

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

0

7

0

1

9

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1664992702502}, {"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664992709521}, {"name": "U...

["politics-default", "world-default", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5175000000000001

1675621652375

1664995421137

False

0.48

0.5145455183473301

LierO2MqJq7vQF6tE9SR

{"NO": 143.33720004396974, "YES": 136.68602774803986}

0.5375

what-will-the-democracy-index-of-cu

66.99999999999997

What will the Democracy Index of Cuba be in 2022?

1676486457227

K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3

cpmm-1

0

2.1595720038482136

True

play

MKT

public

1664992759074

Tetra

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves per The Economist's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Democracy Index", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " score for C...

PSEUDO_NUMERIC

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676486457227

140

Tetraspace

1675621609844

0

https://firebasestorage.…4a7-b7343519b16f

0

4

0

1

5

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1664992759577}]

["world-default"]

0.5225

1675621609646

0.5375

0.49999999999999983

sSQYM2QLJBIoQcxZQB8J

{"NO": 308.9563033753936, "YES": 32.36703666747866}

1

will-the-corner-gas-station-nearest

224.01988915083277

Will the corner gas station nearest my apartment be >$4/gal on the 13th?

1665526404788

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

3.3776931707661726

True

play

YES

public

1664996833306

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll have to get some to drive out of town, so I'll resolve based on what I pay. I'm in East Lansing, MI", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665613781165

100

LivInTheLookingGlass

1710462520122

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

7

0

7

[{"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {"name": "Short fuse", "slug": "short-fuse", "groupId": "a2ab3b95-588a-4e45-a855-51cd10e8427c"}]

["fun", "olivia", "short-fuse"]

0.5

1665454403534

0.4353467872565081

E056beUpgt81CIfm4kdK

{"NO": 91.48329327770422, "YES": 278.5223026097074}

0

will-i-publish-the-first-edition-of

324.7115033998453

Will I publish the first edition of my Algorithmovigilance newsletter on Substack by the end of October?

1667275140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.239981376616348

True

play

NO

public

1664997447330

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I publish the introductory essay on my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Algorithmovigilance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://algorithmovigilance.substack.com/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667290956394

160

BTE

1667274326154

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

10

0

1

11

[]

0.5

1667274326062

0.20206937101776526

0.6040244186905392

UUgJKH92Sb2p0MT6aRrW

{"NO": 275.76093799759684, "YES": 155.5821406710499}

0.73

will-att-offer-basic-internet-servi

173.39488156126328

Will AT&T offer basic internet service via satellite (in the US) by 2030?

1893473940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664998019621

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be dialup speed or better. I'm looking for something that can run a basic messaging service, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "maybe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " stream low bitrate audio", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

LivInTheLookingGlass

1703659971292

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

9

0

4

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664998210648}, {"name": "Starlink", "slug": "starlink", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EMtcxaw5aqt0R87eIvzP", "createdTime": 1664998207881}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": ...

["technology-default", "olivia", "starlink", "space", "internet"]

0.5

1703659971292

1664998082932

0.5832932835865768

EaFlX0DTKpOqLcn9L4jL

{"NO": 256.6198612348363, "YES": 135.19799581588222}

0.7265449257851055

will-verizon-offer-basic-internet-s

120.83566930858755

Will Verizon offer basic internet service via satellite (in the US) by 2030?

1893473940000

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1664998069349

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be dialup speed or better. I'm looking for something that can run a basic messaging service, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "maybe", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " stream low bitrate audio", "type": "text"}]}, {"type...

BINARY

{"day": -7.771561172376096e-16, "week": -7.771561172376096e-16, "month": -7.771561172376096e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

180

LivInTheLookingGlass

1685988670906

0

https://firebasestorage.…74e-4407497b9d97

8

0

5

[{"name": "Starlink", "slug": "starlink", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "EMtcxaw5aqt0R87eIvzP", "createdTime": 1664998270456}, {"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1664998260267}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": ...

["technology-default", "olivia", "space", "starlink", "internet"]

0.5

1685988670783

1664998709860

0.7641867064700151

iHsGfgyZfexXnkgHubtM

{"NO": 133982.7006683416, "YES": 234.54618542097683}

1

will-manchester-city-win-the-premie-c99281ee9be4

281728.8726669156

Will Manchester City win the Premier League this season?

1684948369049

N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2

cpmm-1

0

-0.7243329784305486

True

basic

YES

public

1664999764324

Big Chungus

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1684948369049

1500

BigChungus

1684948367227

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml980-A_7MMgiiaLKrtjU9wpNeszPqd-_ea2-Dm=s96-c

0

83

0

34

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665002504045}, {"name": "Premier League", "slug": "premiere-league", "userId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "groupId": "5gsW3dPR3ySBRZCodrgm", "createdTime": 1672760294095}, {"na...

["sports-default", "premiere-league", "soccer"]

0.5

1684945056355

1684948362937

False

1

0.2240152039154492

mRPSglRPed5UgwHloXML

{"NO": 90.90523798372453, "YES": 3733.267791286932}

0

will-smbc-comics-mention-manifold-m

3890.5406380039694

Will SMBC Comics mention Manifold Markets before June 2023?

1685592000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

3.346159326100545

True

play

NO

public

1665001585179

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is mentioned by name in any comic. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"ty...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1690771180497

240

IsaacKing

1685580536522

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

21

0

12

15

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665001585680}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1685580536390

1665004876946

0.01

0.5318492163357906

yM3aZSLQp7k4ndOx5Nxt

{"NO": 2353.9924708599106, "YES": 207.5822087218064}

1

will-xi-jinping-mention-chinas-achi

2190.2082174341995

Will Xi Jinping mention China's achievements advancing "democracy and the rule of law" during his keynote speech to the 20th Party Congress?

1665960064784

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.9181564452739654

True

play

YES

public

1665002830935

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9g3Ahp1NjY.jpeg?alt=media&token=fcd56ab1-dfcb-4726-9176-6a0e4810d4dc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In his 2017 Na...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665960064784

660

BTE

1665942332198

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

9

0

7

[{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665002831364}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238110}]

["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1665942332042

1665899199160

False

0.9279695672429097

0.17341640186129287

hx3Us6uL7HFKzuX7eF4r

{"NO": 854.0246520427382, "YES": 1784.486811869781}

0.09124465440592669

kessler-syndrome-before-2028

1904.3801099022355

Kessler Syndrome before 2028?

1830326340000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

9.843493976709741

False

basic

public

1665003672722

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if we have experienced ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Kessler syndrome", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 br...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.008110054537559433}

0

{"creatorFee": 7.042118913241447, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

BoltonBailey

1719539260697

0

https://firebasestorage.…636-412c606f9103

3

27

3

https://firebasestorage.…0ac-3b1a1bce8928

13

[{"name": "Space", "slug": "space", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC", "createdTime": 1665003673117}, {"name": "Kessler Syndrome", "slug": "kessler-syndrome", "groupId": "77072d56-fdaf-4b0b-86e5-34d9fec6f03f", "createdTime": 1701568288622}]

["space", "kessler-syndrome"]

0.5

1719539257483

1719536489695

0.6284459333284291

5kihzqLGvXvtaq5vBbY3

{"NO": 1589.6811648688624, "YES": 210.75684807874762}

1

number-of-murders-in-chicago-declin

1346.2279402122072

Number of murders in Chicago declines in 2023 YoY

1704038460000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

1.142019145140118

True

play

YES

public

1665004117844

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if at the end of 2023, the number of murders committed in Chicago is less than the number of murders committed in Chicago during 2022. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ques...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704069167546

510

HarrisonLucas

1704069167880

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

1

18

0

1

6

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665004118478}, {"name": "Crime", "slug": "crime", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "j7TkLdIOLyiTtiQQKjl9", "createdTime": 1665143841332}, {"name": "🎆 New Year...

["us-politics", "crime", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704000794393

1702784407892

0.93

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

0.5674553419928415

o1jLPLw55VtxfcrGnODF

{"NO": 329.2509581965912, "YES": 42.71976949260002}

1

will-tom-brady-and-gisele-file-for

358.065563225853

Will Tom Brady and Gisele file for divorce by July 1, 2023?

1666981061464

DjBQoN2ucjYGSVFhK7c1NLuHb7l2

cpmm-1

0

3.256050341001743

True

play

YES

public

1665005099133

Paul

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666981061464

120

PaulGu

1666971310835

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFZAruVSdke_r-nIkdR7XbXr3R7mI2zQO-xb0soSU=s96-c

8

0

8

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "DjBQoN2ucjYGSVFhK7c1NLuHb7l2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665005099695}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1666971321852}]

["sports-default", "please-resolve"]

0.5

1666971282339

1666971305723

0.9100000000000008

0.49999999999999994

GYK7AFoRfQFt7MAKMIrK

{"NO": 89.5935362674798, "YES": 111.6151947629927}

0

will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-be809d64f1fd

628.3228139726061

Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.00 on October 6, 2022?

1665082800000

ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2

cpmm-1

0

2.778623264304414

True

play

NO

public

1665005672307

Predictor 🔥

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock ma...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665091165330

100

Predictor

1665082382000

0

https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e

8

0

1

7

[{"name": "Wall Street Bets", "slug": "wall-street-bets", "userId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "groupId": "8Gu77XZbp4YnYEhLkOKm", "createdTime": 1665005672694}]

["wall-street-bets"]

0.5

1665082381798

0.44527658322098906

0.18603628388622856

Hhffzftib3xqzFLAHSJD

{"NO": 675.2171630100286, "YES": 6740.399822895266}

0

if-ukraine-gains-control-of-kherson

11410.832819235176

IF Ukraine gains control of Kherson before the end of 2022, will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?

1672559940000

vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2

cpmm-1

0

0.7604686872173021

True

basic

NO

public

1665005964047

Mike Blume

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm seeing a narrative where people worry that if Putin feels that he is losing his war in Ukraine decisively enough, he will throw a nuclear tantrum. I am curious about the causality here.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "para...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672562098643

1080

MichaelBlume

1672459622217

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c

53

0

1

47

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1665006240242}, {"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665006236748}, {"name": "Globa...

["nuclear-risk", "ukraine", "global-macro"]

0.5

1672459621999

1669680043987

0.02

0.38717100560198936

OFRCKE2NcldYcqxBIeN7

{"NO": 948.1823808775416, "YES": 1073.1183764975874}

0.3582433558693159

will-flesh-and-blood-still-have-a-s

208.54221953235015

Will Flesh and Blood still have a strong competitive scene in 2025?

1767243600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.677753167467033

False

basic

public

1665006896129

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Flesh and Blood", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flesh_%26_Blood_(card_game)", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hove...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1709052587865

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

12

0

5

[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1665006896520}]

["gaming"]

0.5

1709052587727

1671293416652

0.8279253352837012

dIvIEwOov3iVAY0cU9Hr

{"NO": 1412.8962358503522, "YES": 892.3273614698755}

0.8839683620870085

will-ai-be-able-to-accurately-answe

2268.8816445405673

Will AI be able to accurately answer Magic: The Gathering rules questions before 2030?

1893474000000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.841119553368163

False

basic

public

1665008484333

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asking GPT-3 MTG rules questions returns some rather nonsensical answers. For example:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefa...

BINARY

{"day": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "week": 1.1102230246251565e-16, "month": 1.1102230246251565e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0.8370873157241671, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1717018673160

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

30

0

18

[{"name": "Magic: The Gathering", "slug": "magic-the-gathering", "userId": "5trZKfXOBYcBfugqlvDmRIMbKX32", "groupId": "MdtQjq1MZ1T3zBP1QqMF", "createdTime": 1665455872430}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908505}]

["magic-the-gathering", "ai"]

0.5

1717018669646

1712298967566

False

0.13366905332991003

pVGaJwqZ1ja8DGoHPboo

{"NO": 150.1503489307397, "YES": 6642.738337245553}

0

will-any-of-the-time-people-of-the

6986.16375174888

Will any of the Time People of the Year be assassinated in 2023?

1704085140000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

3.4533352125552166

True

play

NO

public

1665009668252

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if a Time Person of the Year is assassinated. For joint winners it resolved Yes if either of them are assassinated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Group", "type": "text", "marks"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704099674411

300

MartinRandall

1704099674864

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

17

0

1

8

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665009668927}, {"name": "TIME Person of the Year", "slug": "time-person-of-the-year", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "RCfwD1s4qIECOtPgrtmi", "createdTime":...

["politics-default", "time-person-of-the-year", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1704085001871

1665011715114

0

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

K3v3Pq9BWOEXmLxdFM9J

conditional-on-a-new-russian-ruler

100

Conditional on a new Russian ruler in the next 12 months, who will it be?

1696683540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.837765190619555

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665009768970

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1696922977858

439.99999999999994

Keepcalmandchill

1696871939236

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "138c34c9f82d", "prob": 0.25, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 14.021363680319482, "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 42.064091040958445, "textFts": "", "contractId": "K3v3Pq9BWOEXmLxdFM9J", "createdTime": 1665009769513, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, ...

1

[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1665009769373}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736990331}]

["russia", "ancient-markets"]

0.0891272995295398

1696643792989

1696871937593

True

0.5000000000000007

TaOWd6RLq4npElKPhJOS

{"NO": 38.65556717425336, "YES": 258.69494955077306}

0.33

was-the-zoom-chart-better

368.47143913475924

Poll: Was the chart better with a zoom option?

1665203987554

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

3.2082497131326266

True

play

MKT

public

1665012504981

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to average direction of each person’s first trade ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665203987554

100

Gigacasting

1665194130099

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

12

0

13

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665028775462}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1665194129973

1665030189215

0.33

0.37212674388562794

wDtMf7bbQd8m9U7t7jc1

{"NO": 380.9955483868057, "YES": 3000.0169454617244}

0

will-xi-jinping-indicate-during-the

4221.819636548404

Will Xi Jinping indicate during the 20th Party Congress that plans to ease his strick Covid Zero policies during his third term?

1665950066014

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.6785430796588516

True

play

NO

public

1665014172203

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The speech given by Xi Jinping every five years at the National Party Congress is styled much like a State of the Union speech in the US, just less frequent so significantly longer. Xi's speech in 2017 at the 19th Party Congress was 66 pages long a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665950066014

840

BTE

1665949969886

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

20

0

18

[{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665014172571}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238080}]

["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1665949968810

1665928946370

False

0.08363588068691973

0.5658366662494148

xfCteCYv1dgWzXF78d4u

{"NO": 3437.9571305444438, "YES": 138.57596782526792}

1

will-xi-jinping-use-the-phrase-new

6082.952698080035

Will Xi Jinping use the phrase "new era" more than 25 times during his address to the 20th Party Congress?

1665960842108

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.3019731463769482

True

play

YES

public

1665015499827

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if according to the official transcript of the speech released by state media the phrase \"new era\" is used more than 25 times. The phrase was used by Xi 24 times during his speech at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. ", "type": "text"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665960842108

560

BTE

1665960757650

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

12

0

8

[{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665015500332}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238143}]

["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1665960757491

1665894432672

False

0.9048882370404654

0.34158948341588835

8TdI2ZedcYdYq89DybUk

{"NO": 380.47189909722283, "YES": 2857.335581149737}

0

will-the-us-announced-a-major-hundr

2821.467680851219

Will the US announced a major (hundreds of millions plus) arms sale to Taiwan before the end of October?

1667275140000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.7353944726316479

True

play

NO

public

1665015811686

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US announces a new deal to sell weapons to Taiwan during October.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667291021096

840

BTE

1667272117517

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

22

0

1

17

[{"name": "Global Macro", "slug": "global-macro", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "ToJoQmyIyv0ZTSEW96Li", "createdTime": 1666558814280}]

["global-macro"]

0.5

1667272115408

1666315544126

0.06461863541467118

0.1454611237170508

jTOsAf1m8nsOKCNUBZzQ

{"NO": 183.69052398442446, "YES": 2399.2205243052404}

0

will-manifold-provide-a-way-to-sort

4322.009138182097

Will Manifold provide a way to sort markets by number of eyeballs by 2023-01-05?

1672981140000

sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1

cpmm-1

0

3.035742651872528

True

play

NO

public

1665017690035

Martin Randall

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A sort by amount of internet traffic counts whether it is total eyeballs, unique eyeballs, or some other thing along those lines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 5, 10:21pm: By \"eyeballs\...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673020745013

320

MartinRandall

1672964256916

0

https://firebasestorage.…d20-bee14ed5221b

16

0

1

18

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665017690557}]

["manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672964256756

1666737991938

0.01

0.0943911408390552

AcrPxFHxgzv7KuswyGMY

{"NO": 309.2796619698186, "YES": 1959.8455630602411}

0

will-russia-detonate-a-nuclear-weap

2598.9789075574727

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in a country other than Ukraine or Russia by end of 2023?

1704085140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.9652630730782406

True

play

NO

public

1665018710713

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as YES if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in any country other than Ukraine or Russia after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704096702944

420

jack

1704096704338

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

19

0

1

11

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665018711235}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1668545476540}, {"name": "Ukraine...

["nuclear-risk", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703425000943

1665019762433

False

0.02

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

0.09085095465766124

rtzSbQ1eZCuB1fRM4YCG

{"NO": 243.3326257503112, "YES": 1341.562061475966}

0

will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-932e4533f811

3553.1353926181264

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated outside Ukraine and cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2023?

1704085140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

3.69843411203708

True

play

NO

public

1665019403172

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated outside Ukraine and causes at least 1 fatality, after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "c...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704096762075

340

jack

1704096762378

0.2

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

18

0

1

8

[{"name": "Nuclear Risk", "slug": "nuclear-risk", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "1GU6aOGwXCt8dUSG9sX0", "createdTime": 1665019403595}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182223195}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions ...

["nuclear-risk", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.11679724425373506

0.5

1703538420545

1683069118319

False

0.02

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

0.770791632431062

a10UtPUm1PTwaEBiWSCE

{"NO": 7070.182105659029, "YES": 51.51858936393728}

1

will-i-move-to-the-bay-area-by-apri

6906.1616525671

Will I move to the Bay Area by April 1st?

1672782187112

5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2

cpmm-1

0

3.865303873686603

True

play

YES

public

1665023516369

James

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I moved to Austin, TX during the pandemic (January 2021), and I've since come to really like this city. The quality of life is great, and there's so many restaurants and food trucks within walking distance of my current place on East 6th St. It's a...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672782187112

200

JamesGrugett

1672692541595

0

https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03

16

0

18

0.5

1672692541449

1668232164204

1

XHg65JJ0jwedeKPXg0nD

as-of-112027-which-fund-manager-wil

34

As of 1/1/2027, which fund manager will have the largest fund dedicated to the PE secondary market?

1798876740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665024912547

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution shall be determined using data from Preqin. If there are duplicative answers, all answers with a lower selection percentage will be discarded. Only secured commitments will be included in the calculation. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

340

CarsonGale

1701596079551

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

3

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "235469c38e12", "prob": 0.5569169079973268, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 59.60998829399266, "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 47.42570668670056, "textFts": "", "contractId": "XHg65JJ0jwedeKPXg0nD", "createdTime": 1665024913208, "probChanges": {"day": -0.443083092002...

2

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670359790056}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1665024965085}, {"name": ...

["secondary-private-equity", "finance", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"]

1701596079387

True

WXUZ9OZZ1f48EK9kzs0f

what-number-did-i-precommit-to

5

What number did I precommit to?

1665471540000

BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.003055295544427

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665025079407

nfd

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Via some process, I precommitted to resolve the market if a specific real number appears in the free responses at deadline. If it's not there at deadline, market resolves N/A. It's a pretty straightforward procedure, depending on salting with some ...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665607809643

240

nfd

1665607845625

0

https://firebasestorage.…eb1-efea3842a48f

2

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "122ec0da5e98", "prob": 0.9070294784580499, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 69.69386925096977, "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 7.143621598224398, "textFts": "", "contractId": "WXUZ9OZZ1f48EK9kzs0f", "createdTime": 1665025080101, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "...

1

2

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1665025079931}]

["fun"]

1665050498349

1665607842081

True

0.27946229199152983

3CUcdI3FRSX4OakeEmS3

{"NO": 98.0592422291802, "YES": 1123.2928908817776}

0

will-brent-crude-be-over-100-usd-pe

2150.2505756068344

Will Brent Crude be over 100 USD per barrel on 1 January 2023?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

2.633883631223877

True

play

NO

public

1665025502978

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672540581851

220

Keepcalmandchill

1672487888868

0

https://firebasestorage.…2ae-240f92e251de

13

0

1

12

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665025503436}]

["economics-default"]

0.5

1672487888709

0.03

0.2920263834480918

IEExJSHJUNL4Hpmx1I9f

{"NO": 145.63455881444662, "YES": 317.7411608449782}

0.15899841574868384

will-annual-secondary-pe-transactio-9470065325bf

177.01043381746308

Will annual secondary PE transaction volume surpass $1 Trillion by 2030

1903676340000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665025535688

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves yes if, per volume estimates by Jefferies Private Capital Advisory Group, annual PE secondary market volume has surpassed $1 Trillion in any of the years 2022-2029. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": -1.942890293094024e-16, "week": -1.942890293094024e-16, "month": -1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

200

CarsonGale

1691022307015

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

7

0

4

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670359790055}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1665025580367}, {"name": ...

["secondary-private-equity", "finance", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1691022306885

0.43827795441106915

sw5xhixOMSlx7MOsKIza

{"NO": 256.89785669391756, "YES": 184.13404990587014}

0.5212024522255431

conditional-on-manifold-providing-a

3980.797766465226

Conditional on Manifold providing a way to sort markets by number of eyeballs by 2023-01-05, will this market be at the top of the list? 👀

1672894800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

1.522379047428704

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665025867683

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀👀...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673033458136

260

IsaacKing

1673033760133

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

18

0

1

16

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1665025868086}]

["fun"]

0.5

1672878529804

1673033756141

0.52

0.5825755513601206

Kuw6nePZwcY7d9XJrYmC

{"NO": 2558.8878251144947, "YES": 1088.7191561624632}

0.75

what-percent-code-coverage-will-thi

1832.3465379897866

BOUNTY: What percent code coverage will this bot have at EoY?

1672549140000

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

0.27631883881561037

True

basic

MKT

public

1665026221445

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://github.com/LivInTheLookingGlass/ManifoldMarketManager", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/LivInTheLookingGlass/ManifoldMarketManager", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywher...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673421566324

1560

MarketManagerBot

1710462494077

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

8

0

3

9

[{"name": "💪 Personal Goals", "slug": "personal-goals", "groupId": "izQp87CKagOVJp9Olm1p"}, {"name": "🤠 Fun", "slug": "fun", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4"}, {"name": "Programming", "slug": "programming", "groupId": "PZJMbrLekgJBy7OOBKGT"}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz"}, {...

["personal-goals", "fun", "programming", "olivia", "short-fuse", "management-of-olivias-bot"]

0.5

1667334954771

1667188014711

0.75

5lcJEMorcKY6Ip69A31u

which-bear-will-win-fat-bear-week

641.5151634874384

Which bear will win Fat Bear Week?

1665503940000

HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.695293585760127

True

play

3388e0fa14ce

public

1665026320735

wasabipesto

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which bear will win?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://explore.org/fat-bear-week", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://explore.org/fat-bear-week", "class": null, "target": "_b...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665575571934

779.9999999999999

wasabipesto

1665575615176

0

https://firebasestorage.…c09-105e8c2cac4c

0

8

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "f40e2c4a239d", "prob": 0.027918603905000502, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.3348372026764124, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 11.658498990486157, "textFts": "", "contractId": "5lcJEMorcKY6Ip69A31u", "createdTime": 1665026321580, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": ...

1

7

[{"name": "Fun", "slug": "fun", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "bBwafyeaiuwWwobwm2c4", "createdTime": 1665026321389}, {"name": "Animal Spirits", "slug": "animal-spirits", "userId": "QtBvbpuAP0cXKh8qUgCsSpGW0nh2", "groupId": "zeWwxa8E70Ascm33UPBW", "createdTime": 1665057371017}]

["fun", "animal-spirits"]

1665495797173

1665575610274

{"3388e0fa14ce": 100}

True

0.5240881669492461

oc9WwlTS85kY2dX1b3in

{"NO": 189.2042895676694, "YES": 136.8035939560718}

1

will-i-be-taking-wellbutrin-at-leas

52.117429957329456

Will I be taking Wellbutrin at least once per week by the end of 2022?

1672559940000

lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2

cpmm-1

0

1.9625207562708873

True

play

YES

public

1665027519325

Alex

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to yes if I am still taking the drug (or its analogues) at the end of the year. I was prescribed it 2 weeks ago and upped the dosage today to 300mg", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672572954917

160

Alex

1669454483360

0

https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4

6

0

1

6

[{"name": "Smol Beans", "slug": "smol-beans", "userId": "lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2", "groupId": "XdKmDFqB6Hzet3fYAoW9", "createdTime": 1665078173230}]

["smol-beans"]

0.5

1669454483201

1665542027257

0.6

0.42252561359908264

dDGjQj21o0Df1LqeznZZ

{"NO": 62.608543695691935, "YES": 339.40215270481866}

0

will-manifold-let-you-point-to-an-i

411.27524764069904

Will Manifold let you point to an image on another site by EoY?

1672549140000

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

2.7060723335743866

True

play

NO

public

1665027716829

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff you can embed an image from another site via the GUI in market descriptions", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1681843847759

140

MarketManagerBot

1682014959401

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

6

0

22

6

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1665027740334}, {"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 16...

["olivia", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "management-of-olivias-bot"]

0.5

1672437269377

1682014956680

0.12

0.5

y5G1tMXCl08lnXACXlKR

{"NO": 110, "YES": 90.90909090909089}

0.5475113122171946

will-manifold-let-you-point-to-an-i1

10

Will Manifold let you point to an image on another site by EoY?

1664758001000

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

2.777129019308858

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665027716834

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES iff you can embed an image from another site via the GUI in market descriptions", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667419094390

100

MarketManagerBot

1665041967420

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

1

0

2

[{"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1665027722172}, {"name": "Management of Olivia's Bot", "slug": "management-of-olivias-bot", "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "groupId": "cpMUDRlGNrGmeJf3SIuk", "createdTime": 166641...

["olivia", "management-of-olivias-bot"]

0.5

1665041965760

0.5475113122171946

0.4125529975161019

Eit2rUVzvQm4Q8vO3wOy

{"NO": 370.4952719684866, "YES": 1324.1032334851286}

0

will-i-identify-as-polyamorous-or-e

1589.5927665704098

Will I identify as polyamorous or ethically non-monogamous at the end of 2023?

1704095940000

lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2

cpmm-1

0

0.7031245273163456

True

play

NO

public

1665027845000

Alex

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704169562535

660

Alex

1704170121534

0

https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4

0

36

0

1

8

[{"name": "Dating", "slug": "dating", "userId": "lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2", "groupId": "j3ZE8fkeqiKmRGumy3O1", "createdTime": 1665078223204}, {"name": "Smol Beans", "slug": "smol-beans", "userId": "lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2", "groupId": "XdKmDFqB6Hzet3fYAoW9", "createdTime": 1665078144940}, {"name": "Sex and lov...

["smol-beans", "dating", "sex-and-love", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703844678590

1704170119479

0.16

lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2

qCKrvVxE4YJXaJONbDkx

which-pe-secondaries-intermediary-w

409.7024043770827

Which PE secondaries intermediary will place #1 on the Secondaries Investor annual volume survey in 2027?

1861948740000

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-multi-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

play

public

1665028772985

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve according to the Secondaries Investor intermediary survey for FY 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 1.3450504235787724, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

380

CarsonGale

1718264214440

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

4

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "32f4645807eb", "prob": 0.0986962100634944, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 10.093926776295056, "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 92.17876201085609, "textFts": "", "contractId": "qCKrvVxE4YJXaJONbDkx", "createdTime": 1665028773461, "probChanges": {"day": -0.71403242872...

3

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670347328605}, {"name": "Secondary Private Equity", "slug": "secondary-private-equity", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "vfs3YP4g4Ad0ZNK1IELS", "creat...

["secondary-private-equity", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets", "ancient-markets"]

1718264211330

True

ALZ4If7ie5o422JwdFqh

weekly-paper-search-1-which-ai-pape

0

Weekly Paper Search #1: Which AI paper released this week will I find most impressive/interesting?

1665644340000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665035190720

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First releases only. If it was on openreview a month ago or there's a new revision on arxiv or anything like that it doesn't count", "type": "text"}]}]}

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665675289615

220

vluzko

1665675282812

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

0

1

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "92230007eab9", "prob": 1, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": null, "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0, "textFts": "", "contractId": "ALZ4If7ie5o422JwdFqh", "createdTime": 1665035191366, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}, "subsidyPool": 0, "fsUpdatedTime":...

1

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665035191207}]

["ai"]

1665035190720

1665675280249

True

0.38127477941431887

VgMa9JJ0X8WPm98ksGp3

{"NO": 634.3633034606854, "YES": 8211.65830239181}

0

will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate-fcd96ff6a35d

18850.491966983784

Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

0.403491169843726

True

basic

NO

public

1665036291071

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. The visuals, dialogue, and sound must all be of \"reasonable\" quality: it does not need to be indistinguishable from human made video, but there shouldn't be significant artifacts.", ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704758953715

1740

vluzko

1704758954022

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

4

103

0

2

48

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1665036291496}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181907807}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slu...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1284327080773654

0.5

1704070350040

1699057228166

False

0.05

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

0.4530859012792307

7bWCBcWHDfmNfC5cNl7N

{"NO": 147.8021387118846, "YES": 2145.5198966570033}

0

will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate-3a45896a6cb9

9204.645013126225

Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0

1.2238206508661855

True

play

NO

public

1665036409636

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minimum video length of 2 minutes, and must maintain coherence. \"Sound\" means dialogue ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " background noise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704316059518

520

vluzko

1704316059730

0

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

1

36

0

1

20

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1665036410118}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031214315...

["technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.5

1703517421847

1704316055791

0.05

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

0.18060173029881293

W15BhcylHwyr9CmWHRGq

{"NO": 72.66704765890117, "YES": 2211.3188716583204}

0

will-manalinks-support-a-start-date

2684.1804592668136

Will Manalinks support a start date by EoY?

1672592400000

k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2

cpmm-1

0

4.773275254271947

True

play

NO

public

1665036498482

Olivia's Market Manager Bot

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivation: this basically means you can have loans, and therefore predictor funds. This use case is even more satisfied if the receiver can pre-emptively accept. In other words, if they can click a button before the start date, then on the start d...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673421527153

180

MarketManagerBot

1672631363321

0

https://firebasestorage.…e63-5d4efa13362e

0

9

0

2

11

[{"name": "Features", "slug": "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "m8gEnMLaRYw7oUGBawY4", "createdTime": 1665036507810}, {"name": "Olivia", "slug": "olivia", "userId": "k8kjLwYoDmYd6rUZSJgWWmVbOCo2", "groupId": "7Bei00FPrD7qAX3aaDQz", "createdTime": 1665036499076}, {"n...

["olivia", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-6748e065087e"]

0.5

1672588557223

1672631360069

0.01

0.2621412790115967

QPsFrbirRMGiX8gakJnZ

{"NO": 1374.8378990232954, "YES": 11675.53279794924}

0

will-it-be-possible-for-ai-to-gener

118033.62730141864

Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

0.07482872015407427

0.2793996431051058

True

basic

NO

public

1665036668182

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Reasonably good\" - I watch it and think it's about as good as other ads", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's no requirement that the video be photorealistic. Many ads are animated, if AI...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704758908848

3135

vluzko

1718757014883

2

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

8

425

0

2

22

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1665036668585}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 17031183519...

["technical-ai-timelines", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1552045498844963

0.5

1704093246957

1704315972358

False

0.04

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

0.8520598333023175

zt57uuMxvlLub3BWyP6b

{"NO": 1235.8073008419583, "YES": 369.29557118238347}

1

will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate-21906e3a4793

11091.176305474128

Will there be realistic AI generated dialogue (with sound) by 2024?

1704096000000

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

cpmm-1

5.848564490768631e-15

1.7111348518364562

True

play

YES

public

1665036842402

Vincent Luczkow

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The AI must generate dialogue (could be a conversation, a speech, whatever) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " sound to go with it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "pa...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704772853555

480

vluzko

1704772853934

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…f7b-ff4904405776

29

0

2

15

[{"name": "Technical AI Timelines", "slug": "technical-ai-timelines", "userId": "acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2", "groupId": "GbbX9U5pYnDeftX9lxUh", "createdTime": 1665036842841}, {"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1691181908094}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slu...

["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.10348085502132798

0.5

1692282899889

1704772850750

False

0.95

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

yiFl2ag5R2PDmYBGmIes

who-will-win-oscar-2023-for-best-ac-2c886d2f41a5

12267.330311080455

Who will win Oscar 2023 for Best Actress?

1678727040000

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.619770749450057

True

basic

10a87aea3c83

public

1665038371278

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to the name of an actor, who wins 95th Academy Award (Oscar) for Best Actress in a Leading Role.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-13 6:0...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1678746860720

1839.9999999999995

itsTomekK

1678737005483

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

55

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "ec0ddf929153", "prob": 0.0001, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 8.444866698335974e-05, "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 0.844402221166614, "textFts": "", "contractId": "yiFl2ag5R2PDmYBGmIes", "createdTime": 1665038371852, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": ...

2

39

[{"name": "Oscars 2023", "slug": "oscars-2023", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "THBPkY1hBc2LRpoFYi6f", "createdTime": 1665038371699}]

["oscars-2023"]

1678719043161

1678737003003

{"10a87aea3c83": 100}

True

0.5087045589727649

UH2OaFSr7Qv99xuAcBua

{"NO": 2531.00000504975, "YES": 6.305770567157879}

1

will-fy-2022-pe-secondaries-volume

2417.166594896863

Will FY 2022 PE secondaries volume exceed $100B?

1674511982584

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

cpmm-1

0

5.013386353349065

True

play

YES

public

1665040201507

Carson Gale

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"Yes\" if, per estimates by Jefferies private capital advisory, FY 2022 secondaries volume exceeds $100B", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1674511982584

120

CarsonGale

1674511968664

0

https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae

3

0

3

[{"name": "Private Markets", "slug": "private-markets", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "CR3uuSLahQOT5w9K6DMy", "createdTime": 1670347328605}, {"name": "Secondary Private Equity", "slug": "secondary-private-equity", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "vfs3YP4g4Ad0ZNK1IELS", "creat...

["secondary-private-equity", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets"]

0.5

1674511968516

1

0.0984700821245968

haBhOfGwWi6gdg5jotGJ

{"NO": 862.8516071295393, "YES": 1682.1612762138586}

0.05305396743197043

us-inflation-over-5-20232025

5384.524668147937

US Inflation over 5% 2023-2025

1767196860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

10.323821727943336

False

basic

public

1665042649666

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that annual inflation was over 5% from the start of 2023 to the end of 2025. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inflation calculation...

BINARY

{"day": 7.632783294297951e-17, "week": 7.632783294297951e-17, "month": 7.632783294297951e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1694556802241

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

17

0

11

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665042650143}]

["economics-default"]

0.11416218775040098

0.5

1694556802104

1671838328315

0.23426454091906998

bg431ZKBgaaQCM8mOQ6a

{"NO": 937.0009405461475, "YES": 1136.2318172912073}

0.20146323197472482

will-china-annex-any-portion-of-rus

229.5941854023183

Will China annex any portion of Russia/Siberia by 2035?

2082862740000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

9.64756243235706

False

basic

public

1665047407426

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 6, 5:12am: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3654427-does-china-have-designs-on-siberia/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3654427-does-china-have-designs-on-siberi...

BINARY

{"day": 1.942890293094024e-16, "week": 1.942890293094024e-16, "month": 1.942890293094024e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

StochasticParrot

1685702583851

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

1

11

0

9

0.5

1685702583656

1665257931077

0.2581525073574926

flTA4PO8Y26ldhzJhDzs

{"NO": 953.3611596581126, "YES": 1086.6972614984606}

0.23388590453954175

will-ukraine-send-any-weapons-to-ta

218.57523630150826

Will Ukraine send any weapons to Taiwan by 2028?

1862024340000

1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2

cpmm-1

0

9.606363886922974

False

basic

public

1665047843621

Stochastic Cockatoo

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": -8.326672684688674e-17, "week": -8.326672684688674e-17, "month": -8.326672684688674e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

StochasticParrot

1707294300048

0

https://firebasestorage.…fe2-84ed34157855

10

0

6

0.5

1707294299898

0.07830596088808651

PqQrdVlLZtG41OviNVRS

{"NO": 870.5633104000285, "YES": 1652.0148182326338}

0.042852232875621475

10year-us-treasuries-yield-10-any-t

2385.7994793433145

10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026

1767196860000

LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2

cpmm-1

0

10.518097461316248

False

basic

public

1665049048617

Harrison Lucas

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if United States 10-year treasuries trade at a yield over 10% some time before 2026.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if 10-year treasuries trade at a yield of 1...

BINARY

{"day": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "week": 1.3877787807814457e-17, "month": 1.3877787807814457e-17}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

HarrisonLucas

1692100445532

0

https://firebasestorage.…d92-1497d2c1f57e

12

0

8

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665049049086}, {"name": "Finance", "slug": "finance", "userId": "LkcvWkZmRRVL5jxeLF9xb9ojyrI2", "groupId": "CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzani", "createdTime": 1665143940627}]

["economics-default", "finance"]

0.11044126407350116

0.5

1692100445409

0.5156226639318765

B74tgZNVIFKwsbhC8ghE

{"NO": 140.55415967851323, "YES": 102.95026921233918}

0.5923908405117375

hey

20.554159678513372

hey

1665698340000

HWhqXEnLX9ekvUKO44dWq7HgGEC3

cpmm-1

0

2.4433537910385406

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665052530959

Михаил Комиссаров

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667497596096

120

917e

1665678476569

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJypCs1WNlgNQ_jBxdIHvVR3uvaFWAbKPldCKKbS=s96-c

3

0

5

4

0.5

1665678476451

0.5923908405117375

0.32297726039488484

9JLAK94P6fxbIJNDGmSU

{"NO": 71.7017820761248, "YES": 45727.462622798324}

0

will-the-euro-to-us-dollar-exchange

51040.41206053475

Will the Euro to US dollar exchange rate less than 1.0 at the end of 2023?

1704145841147

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

0.036800527503284886

0.7989738888022817

True

play

NO

public

1665053103869

Tasties

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves based on the exchange rate after New Years Eve in the Western European Timezone.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704145841147

680

Tasties

1704145841933

2.3

https://firebasestorage.…dea-1f7c32f6892d

37

0

30

7

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665053104404}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "slug": "new-years-resolutions-2024", "groupId": "jM9eYtkUrTKEqvKV3x3e", "createdTime": 1699915819280}]

["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.12046355917030259

0.5

1704126892020

1701109483451

0

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.49999999999999983

NdSsNkgJHIxnZFfNAUl4

{"NO": 210.09254298778094, "YES": 47.59807205809116}

0

will-a-congressional-candidate-losi

112.08261851308202

Will a congressional candidate losing their 2022 US midterm election refuse to accept the results?

1673173505581

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

0

3.0420465137282076

True

play

NO

public

1665053618738

Tasties

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on statements made by said candidate contesting the election results.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-05 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1673173505581

100

Tasties

1667246578026

0

https://firebasestorage.…dea-1f7c32f6892d

8

0

9

[{"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "userId": "my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1665053619251}]

["us-politics"]

0.5

1667246577912

0.82

KYIVSUxX4gDaYXCOhxl3

manifold-play-chess-9nxg5-hxg5-10

752

[Manifold play chess] 9.Nxg5 hxg5 10.

1665136800000

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.672115997890623

True

play

15506d7087e0

public

1665054082018

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Your move! ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the game in lichess:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://lichess.org/analysis/standard/rnbqkb1r/p4p2/2p...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665136895671

320.00000000000006

AlexLiesman

1665136657211

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

6

0

ANYONE

[{"id": "62a1c08ca9ba", "prob": 0.01377592629328396, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.28221201842183924, "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 20.20367128362684, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KYIVSUxX4gDaYXCOhxl3", "createdTime": 1665054082705, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0...

8

[{"name": "Manifold plays chess", "slug": "manifold-plays-chess", "userId": "TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2", "groupId": "ZbnbyDVipy8GQ3qOaBLT", "createdTime": 1665054082548}, {"name": "Chess", "slug": "chess", "groupId": "ED7Cu6lVPshJkZ7FYePW", "createdTime": 1691182007667}]

["manifold-plays-chess", "chess"]

1665136657000

1665097077169

False

{"15506d7087e0": 100}

True

0.04470703181907709

KYY7c6eXeqiI4ayZ8jYV

{"NO": 851.4265752914837, "YES": 3513.5376804779876}

0.01121358127172336

will-lake-mead-reach-deadpool-statu

2946.6179704912047

Will Lake Mead reach deadpool status at any point before the end of 2025?

1735718340000

my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1

cpmm-1

0

10.586609649448985

False

basic

public

1665054406089

Tasties

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reports Lake Mead's elevation to be below 895 feet anytime before 2025 ends.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 3.469446951953614e-18, "week": 3.469446951953614e-18, "month": 3.469446951953614e-18}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

Tasties

1710337462652

0

https://firebasestorage.…dea-1f7c32f6892d

1

11

0

10

[{"name": "Climate", "slug": "climate", "userId": "my3tQfyCtZgOsjx7NYc7RvE2bzj1", "groupId": "97oNExy8iFftY2EgdkLw", "createdTime": 1665054406573}]

["climate"]

0.5

1704384616761

1710337462226

0.1384650177815292

JkAw7cBUdImHaHSG0ZSl

{"NO": 444.2829037523499, "YES": 11344.978900081484}

0

will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-against

15404.93382952986

Will Cristiano Ronaldo play against Leo Messi at the 2022 World Cup?

1670758603730

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

cpmm-1

0

1.4763156377644355

True

play

NO

public

1665055572377

Tomek ⚡ K

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve to \"YES\" if at Qatar World Cup 2022 Portugal play at least one game against Argentina, in which Cristiano Ronaldo and Leo Messi are on the pitch at the same time, during a gametime.,", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1670758603730

820

itsTomekK

1670758292737

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

0

42

0

34

[{"name": "Messi", "slug": "messi", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "39rlvjD2vLdhJNcvOVfi", "createdTime": 1669119966579}, {"name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "slug": "cristiano-ronaldo", "userId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "groupId": "Wdtt9jfeGME2D3k1B59k", "createdTime": 1668446698109}, {"name": ...

["soccer", "cristiano-ronaldo", "messi", "2022-fifa-world-cup"]

0.5

1670758292554

1670691652802

0.01

0.11408771211818501

KElv8NpFjALRuJJkFrxq

{"NO": 230.10210674058956, "YES": 13832.479018144848}

0

will-manifold-be-sold-before-2024

14599.452233957043

Will Manifold be sold before 2024?

1704153540000

tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3

cpmm-1

3.078191837246648e-16

2.3105732782700708

True

play

NO

public

1665055718658

FRC

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Manifold gets sold before Jan 1st 2024, NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704156548225

420

FRCassarino

1704156548383

0.1

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjb-7zU9ioj6KVjeqE5PItJsQaNuzMZm25pjZP9lA=s96-c

2

34

0

1

10

[{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "tO4qKKKwQlZiN9uL13FKpo2cayH3", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665055719167}, {"name": "Manifold Business Future", "slug": "manifold-business-future", "userId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "groupId": "aGIBFhmmK82IYTv136ib", "create...

["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.10352182767364733

0.5

1704134342373

1681027167322

0

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

0.5000000000000001

5PWCFr9aQ3PO27WQCHOo

{"NO": 60.89703244172558, "YES": 164.2116142452316}

1

will-the-indianapolis-colts-beat-th

120.71887391642099

Will the Indianapolis Colts beat the Denver Broncos on Thursday night?

1665115140000

uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2

cpmm-1

0

2.8943491790592115

True

play

YES

public

1665056386272

BCG

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Broncos are at home and are favored by 3.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665146856568

100

BruceGrugett

1665114284863

0

https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86

6

0

1

4

[{"name": "Sports", "slug": "sports-default", "userId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "groupId": "2hGlgVhIyvVaFyQAREPi", "createdTime": 1665056386842}]

["sports-default"]

0.5

1665114284720

0.27052284902414625

0.239133840567914

nVlVqHIqWNt9t6R1EBsH

{"NO": 266.92470123723206, "YES": 3505.8883546713137}

0

will-their-be-a-ukraine-peace-deal

4298.775606396018

Will there be a Ukraine peace deal by the end of 2023?

1704088740000

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

cpmm-1

0

1.106472132779651

True

play

NO

public

1665058156790

Gigacasting

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-putin-confirm-he-ordered-a-nuc/will-biden-complete-his-term", "height": "200px", "fram...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704089627712

544.2784377953387

Gigacasting

1704089628102

0

https://firebasestorage.…197-05995b2e6a2b

2

32

0

1

10

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1665058157192}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182222527}, {"name": "🎆 New Year's Resolutions 2024", "sl...

["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.1109552148736046

0.5

1702511686222

False

0.02

9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2

0.8396000452085086

mKuKAAsV3OCAEnhPwTCp

{"NO": 42106.502857881125, "YES": 1090.8807837195666}

1

will-vladimir-putin-still-be-the-le

261670.33601128566

Will Vladimir Putin still be the leader of Russia at the end of 2023?

1704095940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0.036863082225131655

0.5316394677282004

True

basic

YES

public

1665058464368

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1704097036196

2070

ahalekelly

1704097040585

5

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

12

690

0

1

157

[{"name": "Ukraine", "slug": "ukraine", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "0AKCBNjWsHwpfmPOsGf6", "createdTime": 1668835549756}, {"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1668835548528}, {"name": "Wars", "slug": "w...

["world-default", "wars", "russia", "ukraine", "putin-assassination-markets", "ukrainerussia-war", "putin-succession", "new-years-resolutions-2024"]

0.2805327968128852

0.5

1704095558988

1702677208881

False

1

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

0.7189841004656711

azaJBXJ0G6NtPPXqJg0V

{"NO": 6591.92815514516, "YES": 172.92457087850323}

1

if-elon-musk-buys-twitter-will-he-u

7857.971338485278

If Elon Musk buys Twitter, will he unban Donald Trump within 6 months?

1668965998510

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0

1.6448346354155259

True

play

YES

public

1665058670776

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if it's clear the deal won't go through.", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668965998510

520

ahalekelly

1710451934723

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

36

0

26

[{"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]

["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]

0.5

1668963062591

1668957266632

False

0.9898509440023027

0.29477634416085313

0jcoirt8ggV4AEPNnctg

{"NO": 491.3772949210594, "YES": 15811.598358459298}

0

if-donald-trump-gets-unbanned-from

29354.774583306826

If Donald Trump gets unbanned from Twitter, will he tweet within 3 months?

1676879940000

UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03

cpmm-1

0.637355081643054

True

basic

NO

public

1665058811784

Adrian

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-19 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1676883713073

1660

ahalekelly

1676859945585

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c

0

108

0

1

92

[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665058812517}]

["politics-default"]

0.5

1676859945423

1665668687879

0.01

0.34825991720740995

yxqpPIl1w7b1filOmT08

{"NO": 967.1238268865009, "YES": 1047.0508334664842}

0.33046051285916583

will-the-first-selfdriving-car-comp

345.36483765842263

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

2052363540000

Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2

cpmm-1

0

9.608328244173698

False

basic

public

1665062028497

Stephen Malina

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As this article (https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/05/27/1052826/ai-reinforcement-learning-self-driving-cars-autonomous-vehicles-wayve-waabi-cruise/) describes, first generation self-driving companies like Waymo and Cruise have (seemingly) doub...

BINARY

{"day": 2.220446049250313e-16, "week": 2.220446049250313e-16, "month": 2.220446049250313e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

StephenMalina

1711642765079

0

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhiY-B4DtNCOyjQmWNag-FugkJMBmr3jdWOk82M=s96-c

0

16

0

15

[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "Tuvk2vE8saQgB10Z7Gwv2CT1pQW2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665062028936}, {"name": "Self-Driving Vehicles", "slug": "selfdriving-vehicles", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "z2q5JCxgaSsIPjKYXpQ5", "createdTime": 1667386039684}, {"name":...

["ai", "selfdriving-vehicles", "traffic"]

0.5

1711564436759

1711642764558

0.3263036967885324

zW4oWSQPYVHqfszxlryf

{"NO": 37.5863114528164, "YES": 588.6240703077309}

0

will-xi-jinping-attend-a-military-p

594.156941336105

Will Xi Jinping attend a military parade during the 20th Party Congress?

1666526293641

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

4.20960457988002

True

play

NO

public

1665063775853

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FvCEe0x8anX.webp?alt=media&token=a44a47d9-6961-4e69-8c94-dd2a7840730f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES i...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666526293641

120

BTE

1666501593395

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

6

0

6

[{"name": "CCP 20th Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665063776353}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238140}]

["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1666411732689

1666501587175

False

0.03000000000000003

tNiC9FKrE3dG4HKT93q6

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions

0

Who will win the US Chess Championship?

1666324740000

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665064792332

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/2022-us-championship", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/2022-us-championship", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1668621328164

0

AlexLiesman

1665064792332

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

6

1

True

343meaRbuP28JZtT3rJz

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions1

0

Issues with creating markets

1665065483453

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665064912105

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/2022-us-championship", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/2022-us-championship", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665065483453

0

AlexLiesman

1665064912105

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

1

True

m9TNeoO8EknNjE4wwQuc

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions-a778749989d3

0

Multiple markets made in error

1665065561688

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665065311879

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665065561688

0

AlexLiesman

1665065311879

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

1

True

UDqm6hwnCWNE2OXdktm3

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions-20e1a58c0ddd

0

Null

1665065556490

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665065317182

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665065556490

0

AlexLiesman

1665065317182

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

1

True

LoQUFdHrl1lre2UAfQJj

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions-d0924750482f

0

Null

1665065531360

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665065370608

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665065531360

0

AlexLiesman

1665065370608

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

1

True

kwPyk9tn7VGCRTBX0Amw

who-will-win-the-us-chess-champions-e493f72c6602

0

Null

1665065504799

TTeJoOQGnQeCBZ83P11UrbqP9mP2

cpmm-multi-1

0

5.0189258735310585

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665065382771

Alex...

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uschesschamps.com/2022-us-championships/pairings-results", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"t...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665065504799

0

AlexLiesman

1665065382771

0

https://firebasestorage.…972-756d2782adfc

0

ANYONE

[]

1

True

0.5000000000000001

6lm4sgiol654QQsRKcCe

{"NO": 42.85714285714283, "YES": 233.33333333333337}

0.1551724137931034

will-xi-jinping-commit-to-a-decisiv1

133.33333333333337

Will Xi Jinping commit to a decisive resolution of the Taiwan issue during his next term as president at the 20th People’s Congress.

1665070944835

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

3.121295496529338

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665069944662

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi commits to using force if necessary to resolve the dispute with Taiwan by the next party congress in 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665070944835

100

BTE

1665070465106

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

3

0

4

0.5

1665070464914

0.1551724137931034

0.4793744850105309

vW33ZaDEum4h5rm8Lzpd

{"NO": 38.43951189135947, "YES": 554.5030431425167}

0

will-xi-jinping-commit-to-a-decisiv

864.8347963476072

Will Xi Jinping commit to a decisive resolution of the Taiwan issue during his next term as president at the 20th People’s Congress?

1667578644049

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.9914281004512104

True

play

NO

public

1665070063805

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi commits to using force if necessary to resolve the dispute with Taiwan by the next party congress in 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1667578644049

140

BTE

1667578630951

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

7

0

7

0.5

1667578628808

0.19999999999999996

0.4999999999999999

whFtlIhPQSmbE8lah0dt

{"NO": 51.55800469472481, "YES": 193.95630337539333}

0.20999999999999994

will-xi-jinping-commit-to-a-decisiv-93c443cb8baa

195.43303519741085

Will Xi Jinping commit to a decisive resolution of the Taiwan issue during his next term as president at the 20th People’s Congress?

1665080713265

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.988118354574423

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665070152514

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi commits to using military force if necessary to decisively resolve the dispute with Taiwan by the next Party Congress in 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665080713265

100

BTE

1665070530581

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

2

0

3

0.5

1665070530391

0.20999999999999988

0.5

zuTEVZH242dNCuOMFX8c

{"NO": 53.10850045437944, "YES": 188.29377433825434}

0.22000000000000003

will-xi-jinping-commit-to-a-decisiv-93ad22030693

110.72754807342703

Will Xi Jinping commit to a decisive resolution of the Taiwan issue during his next term as president at the 20th People’s Congress?

1665080756534

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

2.9695729228135033

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665070154770

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi commits to using military force if necessary to decisively resolve the dispute with Taiwan by the next Party Congress in 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665080756534

100

BTE

1665077514212

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

3

0

4

0.5

1665077514042

0.22000000000000008

0.24028366655445657

sJjel0FHeinxy9Jb04lR

{"NO": 361.88872314021205, "YES": 3455.8800822674016}

0

will-xi-jinping-commit-to-a-decisiv-402a731ad189

4303.845147258297

Will Xi Jinping commit to a decisive resolution of the Taiwan issue during his next term as president at the 20th People’s Congress?

1666528630416

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.0529608011804714

True

play

NO

public

1665070173971

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi commits to using military force if necessary to decisively resolve the dispute with Taiwan by the next Party Congress in 2027. ", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1666528630416

640

BTE

1666528614658

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

10

0

9

[{"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1666528606387}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238092}]

["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1666528614436

False

0.0331693657864216

0.5

sn5L0R2tCumo8PFWzOIB

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-over-9-billion-people

0

Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037?

1665071392672

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665070569183

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "class": "no-underline !...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665071392672

100

IsaacKing

1665070569183

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

1

0.5

KFU9LRncfVBl3iT89xBg

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

will-there-be-over-9-billion-people-be07aa5eb241

0

Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037?

1665071432228

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665070686474

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "class": "no-underline !...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665071432228

100

IsaacKing

1665070686474

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

0

1

[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1665070704867}]

["world-default"]

0.5

0.49522403114199964

YLBpb161GapXrp5NoqRT

{"NO": 901.282431522307, "YES": 1080.7223206592903}

0.4500000000000002

will-there-be-over-9-billion-people-899297276000

267.56931024631257

Will there be over 9 billion people by 2037?

2114398800000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0

9.536158626416258

False

basic

public

1665070693566

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-by-region-with-projections", "class": "no-underline !...

BINARY

{"day": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "week": 2.7755575615628914e-16, "month": 2.7755575615628914e-16}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1704698691463

0

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

17

0

7

0.09328139787851338

0.5

1704698691316

0.7892679201359549

7p3TUcu8qerhgbteLhZf

{"NO": 893.4827898008768, "YES": 142.24051788291703}

1

in-2022-will-the-ruble-gain-in-valu

790.8911592269264

In 2022, will the ruble gain in value against the dollar despite the war?

1672462800000

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

2.084230000845854

True

play

YES

public

1665070951459

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, the exchange rate has been very fluctuating due to sanctions and Russian counter measures:", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1672605630502

240

Pepe

1672405013150

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

13

0

1

12

[{"name": "Russia", "slug": "russia", "userId": "pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1", "groupId": "TIpf6j0hLpifpXN93FxE", "createdTime": 1665071246559}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182225804}]

["russia", "ukrainerussia-war"]

0.5

1672405012982

1672404997110

False

0.96

0.49999999999999994

1GDJiu3NKuJIDgfwF6Iy

{"NO": 130.55415967851337, "YES": 76.5965636378402}

0.6302375274796191

in-2022-will-the-ruble-gain-in-valu-29c019a29d2d

30.554159678513354

In 2022, will the ruble gain in value against the dollar despite the war?

1665071845712

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

2.808026516917571

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665071081765

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, the exchange rate has been very fluctuating due to sanctions and Russian counter measures:", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665071845712

100

Pepe

1665071821819

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

2

0

3

0.5

1665071821662

0.6302375274796191

0.5

ubDO8mWHDCc5LqviFqTd

{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}

0.5

in-2022-will-the-ruble-gain-in-valu-f7c35b251b11

0

In 2022, will the ruble gain in value against the dollar despite the war?

1665071209801

pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1

cpmm-1

0

2.7725887222397816

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665071112428

Pepe

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, the exchange rate has been very fluctuating due to sanctions and Russian counter measures:", "typ...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1665071209801

100

Pepe

1665071112428

0

https://firebasestorage.…a46-2f407ee8172b

0

1

0.5

0.2484102705921458

vomNSPJ4UkanhnIZr97k

{"NO": 964.153518251914, "YES": 1015.6523344035534}

0.23882272289312662

will-this-richard-hanania-article-o

5491.470772812406

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

1830315600000

y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2

cpmm-1

0.017108552672625992

9.248466794428188

False

basic

public

1665075062478

Isaac King

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-gender-ideology-cant-survive", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-gender-ideology-cant-survive", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]},...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0.005490103476274155}

0

{"creatorFee": 9.85253490968218, "platformFee": 0.807333221020854, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1000

IsaacKing

1719218882769

1.1

https://firebasestorage.…e7c-a7b2af67e4cc

48

0

18

[{"name": "Trans Questions", "slug": "trans-questions", "userId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "groupId": "g9uOjtMhLBdzSCfU25xV", "createdTime": 1665075062963}, {"name": "LGBTQIA+", "slug": "lgbtqia", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "cLtLfm3NSrhXU6lV6Cuy", "createdTime": 1665365189204}, {"name":...

["trans-questions", "lgbtqia", "culture-war"]

0.1317726500251759

0.5

1719218879407

1695865654093

0.3545835377471349

wbAFBrLjGeThLW46slqE

{"NO": 50.702951391765964, "YES": 21769.31309370986}

0

will-us-mortgage-rates-fall-below-6

21784.488420804686

Will US mortgage rates fall below 6% by 2023-04-01?

1680351677563

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.7042100882133235

True

play

NO

public

1665075324828

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "class": "no-unde...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

0

1680351677563

460

jack

1680351666911

0

https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

2

23

0

18

[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665075325297}, {"name": "Housing markets", "slug": "housing-markets", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "irDrBDORHpMwKezzJrJZ", "createdTime": 1665075352360...

["economics-default", "housing-markets"]

0.5

1680351666707

0