CK0607/manifold_contracts · Datasets at Hugging Face

ojzSKFeoWZ73shKIykuK

what-linux-distribution-should-i-re

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What linux distribution should I rebuild my home server on?

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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will-atmospheric-co-concentration-e

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Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 500 ppm in 2050?

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Robin Foster

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Will NASDAQ (QQQ) at the end of 2023 be higher than its value at the beginning of 2023?

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Stochastic Cockatoo

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Will there be an expert-player-beating AI in EU4 by 2026?

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Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 600 ppm in 2100?

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Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 450 ppm in 2030?

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Robin Foster

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RobinFoster

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austria-will-there-be-a-mask-mandat

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Austria: Will there be a mask mandate reinstated shortly after the presidential election? (3 days)

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cpmm-1

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NO

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chris kux

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BINARY

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chrislkj

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0.5

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Will atmospheric CO₂ concentration exceed 425 ppm in 2025?

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cpmm-1

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9.520341504286701

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Robin Foster

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will-we-send-special-forces-to-taiw

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Will we send special forces to Taiwan (and acknowledge that we have done so - either inadvertently or not) at some point before the end of 2023?

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cpmm-1

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YES

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Annalise Norling

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BINARY

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AnnaliseNorling

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will-the-uk-will-be-powered-entirel

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Will the UK be powered entirely by clean electricity by 2035?

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Will atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reach 450 ppm (YES) or 400 ppm (NO) first?

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Duncn

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Duncn

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Will my randomly generated five digit number include at least one 7 in it?

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BRTD

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Will an AI beat the world gravity chess champion in 2022?

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NO

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Andrew G

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3.021383893215925

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YES

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Trong ♠︎

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Who runs @v?

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ANYONE

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{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if, at the close of 2022, the National Grid of Great Britain has reported that >30% of generated electricity in GB in that year has come from 'true' renewable sources (Solar PV, Wind, Hydroelectric).", "type": "text"}]}...

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JohnRoxton

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["climate", "energy"]

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0.6522135509348854

if-a-nuclear-weapon-is-detonated-in-456c43a66cb5

972.8433752241878

If a nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine in 2022, within 1 month will there be a kinetic military conflict between NATO and Russian forces causing at least 1 death?

1672549140000

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

cpmm-1

0

1.2907638170109133

True

play

CANCEL

public

1665354522393

Jack

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if no nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, as per the question ", "type":...

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1672549877654

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jack

1667997799402

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https://firebasestorage.…606-5fc6e2c6b096

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1667997799272

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0.08721852960608496

dc-statehood-by-2027

566.205486407825

D.C. Statehood by 2027?

1798783140000

uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2

cpmm-1

0

10.148691976972877

False

basic

public

1665357593807

Bolton Bailey

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at least 50% of the land area currently making up DC is part of a state by the resolution date.", "type": "text"}]}]}

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BoltonBailey

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["politics-default", "us-politics"]

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1719669551626

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0.5376427569975678

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{"NO": 660.3003983457463, "YES": 344.9612369294479}

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will-zhao-leji-be-selected-for-the

314.55071260496715

Will Zhao Leji be selected for the CCP Politburo Standing Committee at the National Congress?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.7396366833703442

True

play

YES

public

1665358165749

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEU3UcN_wNi.jpeg?alt=media&token=2490c842-b98c-47a2-8e91-2eda8fe06910", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is probab...

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1666526156553

470

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1666499213204

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will-the-price-of-butter-be-at-leas

3006.0843119620977

Will the price of butter be at least US$300 on December 30, 2022?

1672376340000

4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72

cpmm-1

0

2.0578134799505143

True

play

NO

public

1665366124522

belikewater

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The price of butter in the US has surged by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "24.6%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.foodandwine.com/news/butter-shortage-stockpile-2022", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-70...

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0

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1672450377639

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belikewater

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1672055556672

1665418383173

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{"NO": 540.2041127232461, "YES": 539.7702854443338}

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will-there-be-more-than-two-militar

143.2528363038627

Will there be more than two military members in the 25 person Politburo following the 20th National Congress?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.6796110651659927

True

play

NO

public

1665368368677

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the last five years there have been no active military leaders on the Politburo Standing Committee and only two in the 25 person Politburo. This market resolves YES if >2 members of the Politburo are active members of the military. ", "type": "...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1666526276586

540

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1666501165854

0

https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

5

0

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6

[{"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National People's Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665368369033}]

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0.5022471083526205

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{"NO": 571.1215251407912, "YES": 511.03914793740387}

0

will-wang-yang-be-the-next-premier

199.83297389693777

Will Wang Yang be the next Premier of the People's Republic of China?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.6802959327816314

True

play

NO

public

1665369021602

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Wang Yang, a current member of the Politburo Standing Committee and not considered to be a Xi loyalist, is appointed Premier following the 20th National Party Congress. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "http...

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1666528775673

540

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1666298290130

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6

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[{"name": "Chinese Politics", "slug": "chinese-politics", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "v6naCMPo0bZDsej1tNlq", "createdTime": 1665512881359}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1691182238262}]

["chinese-politics", "china"]

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1666298289901

False

0.5299999999999997

0.5135415600979256

GYsH1dz0QS6lCfrHCCJi

{"NO": 866.7741663303264, "YES": 537.399164655382}

0

will-wang-yang-be-the-selected-for

776.6031782792935

Will Wang Yang be the selected for the Politburo Standing Committee after the 20th National Congress?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

0.5050155273660635

True

play

NO

public

1665370629113

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Wang Yang, not considered to be a Xi loyalist, is reappointed to the Politburo Standing Committee following the 20th National Congress. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Ya...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1666481593812

680

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1666298290578

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[{"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National People's Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665370629544}]

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0.6299999999999959

0.22263542491635588

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{"NO": 323.84880509748984, "YES": 1891.8133166261637}

0

will-at-least-a-single-person-die-i

4520.751533721984

Will at least a single person die in a military conflict between North and South Korea during 2022?

1672491540000

XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2

cpmm-1

0

1.274964606558729

True

play

NO

public

1665376502852

Keepcalmandchill

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must die from a weapon (including explosives) fired in anger (friendly fire counts).", "type": "text"}]}]}

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1672538214300

520

Keepcalmandchill

1672487324630

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1672487324480

1665580505309

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{"NO": 142.78990874554248, "YES": 911.6612487026023}

0

will-connor-huh-visit-proof-school

2015.2257025515728

Will I visit Proof School at least three times before June?

1685629815206

x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2

cpmm-1

0

1.7512825107740086

True

play

NO

public

1665381404884

pancakes ♠︎

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Visiting counts either as going on an open lunch trip with at least one Proofnik for the at least fifty minutes of the lunch break, or entering the Proof School building during a Proof School day, both with Dr.V's given consent. Visiting cannot hap...

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

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1685629815206

360

cece

1690454706229

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0

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1685376643505

1690454703701

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0.13714583856997556

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{"NO": 1059.171286101553, "YES": 2109.7854293456494}

0

will-i-get-covid-a-second-time-in-2-120f9ab5a1c2

2031.172383049759

Will I get COVID a second time in 2022?

1672307961004

Iar7J99RNHSqh3FFi3CERKhkQv23

cpmm-1

0

0.7114990058776496

True

basic

NO

public

1665403956301

William Ehlhardt

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before market close. Otherwise, NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ask f...

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{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

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1672613664611

1211.0355685493746

WilliamEhlhardt

1672613653207

0

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1

12

0.5

1671624239338

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0.07

0.46453716544767704

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{"NO": 106.66242576900504, "YES": 4285.40130927957}

0

will-kristi-noem-run-for-president

7489.317565722013

Will Kristi Noem run for president in 2024?

1693395044299

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.4668993955086456

True

play

NO

public

1665408838697

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Kristi Noem announces and files paperwork that she is seeking the GOP nomination for president in 2024. Resolves NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com...

BINARY

{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}

0

{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1693395044299

630

BTE

1693395020326

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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what-changes-will-be-made-to-the-ch

304

What changes will be made to the Chinese Communist Party Constitution following the 20th Party Congress?

1666324740000

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-multi-1

0

4.731666693960247

True

play

MKT

public

1665412461746

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It has already been announced that there will be changes made to the Chinese Communist Party Constitution, but details won't be released until following this week's Party Congress. What specific changes will be made the CCP constitution? ", "type":...

MULTIPLE_CHOICE

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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}

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1666526970702

560

BTE

1666431973116

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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ANYONE

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1666203186409

1666431970604

False

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0.48679074866024724

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{"NO": 138.15734912666267, "YES": 2540.975004668075}

0

will-xi-jinping-describe-the-party

2426.6374936808515

Will Xi Jinping describe the party as China’s “east, west, south, north and center” during the National Party Congress?

1666111155370

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

cpmm-1

0

1.193842759748036

True

play

NO

public

1665415423496

Brian T. Edwards

{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi uses the phrase referring to the party as China’s “east, west, south, north and center” during the 20th Party Congress. Resolves NO if he does not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://fi...

BINARY

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1666111155370

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["ccp-20th-party-congress", "china"]

0.5

1666110968902

1667096363591

False

0.04904356800694107

0.5000000000000016

l16rW5CLNVzWOZz0J99Y

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will-i-do-at-least-13-pomodoros-tod-58edb14fc3c1

1263.0039242625273

Will I do at least 13 pomodoros today?

1665441928182

7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1

cpmm-1

0

4.893726673461734

True

play

YES

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1665416563912

Charlie

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1665441928182

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Charlie

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will-saskia-send-5-emails-not-to-he

82

Will Saskia send 5 emails (not to herself, have to contain >10 words) this week?

1665514789727

6J3ggkAPe9PbK4jqs7wE9gcCKMl2

cpmm-1

0

2.7738925279425355

True

play

YES

public

1665418117594

eulerphi

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starting-tuesday-will-i-do-at-least

168.49972634615597

Starting Tuesday, will I do at least one pomodoro of work on at least eight out of the next nine days?

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cpmm-1

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2.1807084270463832

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1665418311139

Charlie

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will-xi-jinping-be-time-person-of-t

11323.716812385252

Will Xi Jinping be Time Person of the Year?

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cpmm-1

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0.820053124553429

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play

NO

public

1665420190478

Brian T. Edwards

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https://firebasestorage.…ae9-3fcd8f17498c

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1670418710274

1670416128354

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in-his-response-to-alexandros-marin

410

In his response to Alexandros Marinos' series, will Scott Alexander conclude that Ivermectin works for early treatment of Covid?

1675209540000

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cpmm-1

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MKT

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Jonathan Nankivell

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1.498636344054948

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cpmm-1

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1.3613332658858668

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Who will become the 48th (the next next) President of the USA?

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cpmm-multi-1

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1665428276598

Tomek ⚡ K

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Testing Multiple Choice creation through API

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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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1665429220025

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testing-numeric-response-market-cre-03e8d043e345

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Testing Numeric Response Market creation through API

1665429275217

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cpmm-1

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2.7725887222397816

True

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1665429221194

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

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LivInTheLookingGlass

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does-livinthelookingglass-run-v

1565.804340755524

Does @LivInTheLookingGlass run @v?

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10.586609649448985

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1665429407836

Jenny

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Jenny

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how-many-growthmarketing-pomodoros

13.000113978115298

How many growth/marketing pomodoros before Emile.chat crosses >=$200 monthly recurring revenue?

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cpmm-1

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10.216629478377723

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play

public

1665431421734

Charlie

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PSEUDO_NUMERIC

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Charlie

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will-the-estimated-training-cost-of

31065.5768458975

Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?

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cpmm-1

0

10.11924788942478

True

basic

NO

public

1665433053458

Bionic

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will-gpt3-be-trained-on-more-than-1

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cpmm-1

3.84773979655831e-16

9.66146351508883

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1665433347173

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cpmm-1

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1.4962839215077182

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1665434682470

David Chee

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