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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.7026439729725491 | egIfvR9lZq6Z2Hq0nViv | {"NO": 623.1303974725087, "YES": 268.3929217069668} | 0 | will-a-10b-parameter-multimodal-rl | 1039.4398679351737 | Will a 10B parameter multimodal RL model be trained by Deepmind in the next 12 months? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2768663007044903 | True | play | NO | public | 1665523304915 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the first prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:under... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228433418 | 360 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697123572039 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523305391}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1697083106518 | 1697123571031 | 0.85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.30433234001544457 | QeumtIQau0nioF52bEm2 | {"NO": 253.11183341998105, "YES": 711.3036728037574} | 0.13470075074833374 | will-nvidia-announce-a-strategic-re | 663.1301983956631 | Will NVIDIA announce a strategic relationship with an AGI-focused organization? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2831342204335656 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665523414585 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228522188 | 360 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697229470971 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523415049}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1697038536578 | 1697229470250 | 0.13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4742929701343053 | JhYVVIF1yyM02uVBPxKN | {"NO": 115.86437871309006, "YES": 225.07994421306148} | 1 | will-a-sota-lm-be-trained-on-10x-mo | 93.59431772542025 | Will a SOTA LM be trained on 10x more data points than Chinchilla, proving data-set scaling vs. parameter scaling? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 1.3721677402674084e-16 | 2.0111888440279904 | True | play | YES | public | 1665523481568 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228537112 | 160 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697123693434 | 0.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523482003}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736999326}] | ["ai", "ancient-markets"] | 0.08587738790818453 | 0.5 | 1697082684693 | 1697123692576 | 0.32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5392701552678962 | iNElMaHCYMuE1zouDUYG | {"NO": 129.53159294894442, "YES": 989.1267084545672} | 1 | will-generative-audio-tools-emerge | 1584.961772076326 | Will generative audio tools emerge that attract over 100,000 developers by September 2023? | 1696219140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.2699435059026158 | True | play | YES | public | 1665523618978 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228595508 | 420 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697228881205 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 5 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523619518}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1696218284894 | 1697228879785 | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6100620229738999 | wUSPrC2UHmPpRNbuEwgX | {"NO": 450.1741767516063, "YES": 71.09555758856538} | 1 | will-gafam-invest-1b-into-an-agi-or | 396.2900468850267 | Will GAFAM invest >$1B into an AGI or open-source AI company (e.g. OpenAI)? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.5809658690174255 | True | play | YES | public | 1665523739798 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228557904 | 160 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1689986702740 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523740173}, {"name": "Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre", "createdTime": 1691181978776}] | ["ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"] | 0.5 | 1689986701718 | False | 0.91 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6559508281482549 | SOum0bmlU4QKPXBmjFfe | {"NO": 455.7730383664523, "YES": 134.59273304240506} | 0 | will-reality-bite-for-semiconductor | 1778.1149008534342 | Will reality bite for semiconductor startups in the face of NVIDIA’s dominance and a high-profile start-up is shut down or acquired for <50% of its most recent valuation? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9172866806482554 | True | play | NO | public | 1665523799011 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228621889 | 220 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697228873414 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 3 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523799412}, {"name": "Startups", "slug": "startups", "groupId": "19c319ca-033c-474f-b417-5f07efe88ec0", "createdTime": 1691181955994}] | ["ai", "startups"] | 0.5 | 1697083048079 | 1697228872799 | False | 0.87 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6629858998726798 | cbdGNqpt3qPfGgDbDLPj | {"NO": 547.022559065083, "YES": 231.5133433242277} | 0 | will-a-proposal-to-regulate-agi-lab | 304.5483343988932 | Will a proposal to regulate AGI Labs like Biosafety Labs get backing from an elected UK, US or EU politician? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.3185628023317022 | True | play | NO | public | 1665523831135 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228786398 | 320 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697123603883 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 7 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523831509}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737000318}] | ["ai", "ancient-markets"] | 0.5 | 1697083021714 | 1697123603390 | 0.82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.6331306003786293 | Ilmf7nXQ3rMC6h3IHFmu | {"NO": 2607.149592111948, "YES": 819.8631490122553} | 1 | will-100m-be-invested-in-dedicated | 7571.134768137119 | Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0.8037400515518512 | 0.37315012299604544 | True | basic | YES | public | 1665523870104 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228839783 | 1340 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697049528061 | 5.5 | 2 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 31 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523870538}, {"name": "AI Alignment ", "slug": "ai-alignment", "userId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "groupId": "p8Tmu38lHhN1JQavwAmR", "createdTime": 1666395187909}] | ["ai", "ai-alignment"] | 0.2113339081568133 | 0.5 | 1697049527325 | 1688585384056 | 0.85 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.37810439014532027 | iK8dbtdXe27tT12Jn4Zh | {"NO": 250.8636786841188, "YES": 787.634417820181} | 1 | will-a-major-usergenerated-content | 799.663067516111 | Will a major user-generated content side (e.g. Reddit) negotiate a commercial settlement with a start-up producing AI models (e.g. OpenAI) for training on their corpus of user-generated content? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.079485706926714 | True | play | YES | public | 1665523924232 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taken from the second prediction in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "State of AI Report", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.stateof.ai", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:unde... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228824862 | 400 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697235781372 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 6 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523924682}] | ["ai"] | 0.5 | 1697082998190 | 1697235780653 | 0.16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KQ8nRdHy3Io3qyt3SNZ2 | how-many-state-of-ai-report-2021-pr-d02d0781fc90 | 454 | How many State of AI Report 2022 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2023 report? | 1697083140000 | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.701455380105685 | True | play | 7c8ccbeab665 | public | 1665524347195 | Bionic | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 9 predictions are the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A 10B parameter multimodal RL model is trained by Deep... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1697228234912 | 540 | BionicD0LPH1N | 1697228272333 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "107acc8e4032", "prob": 0.03258220490297019, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 0.47835867794674003, "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 14.20323452212343, "textFts": "", "contractId": "KQ8nRdHy3Io3qyt3SNZ2", "createdTime": 1665524347839, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0... | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665524347670}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680737001727}] | ["ai", "ancient-markets"] | 1697081568769 | 1697228270644 | {"7c8ccbeab665": 100} | True | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4735328278088154 | kHXFa5tINRCslnnnzG32 | {"NO": 5965.251067041674, "YES": 37.18798894906178} | 1 | will-eur-be-worth-more-than-usd-aga | 6702.835749759885 | Will EUR be worth more than USD again before November? | 1666786846010 | Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.514590876650084 | True | play | YES | public | 1665525939931 | Tim P | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the dollar price (exchange rate) of one euro (EUR) reaches $1.0001 or above after September 22 and before November 1, 2022 (according to the \"High\" column on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "investing.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "lin... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666786846010 | 730 | TimP | 1666787909387 | 0 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c | 0 | 22 | 0 | 21 | [{"name": "Currency", "slug": "currency", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "9dU059eOFc5Mgw9iSO8N", "createdTime": 1665784514948}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "userId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1665525940524}, {"name": "F... | ["economics-default", "currency", "forex"] | 0.5 | 1666786652744 | 1666787907134 | 0.9774975641788043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5000076699450872 | l6jsJPhOWSztXtzqhpU7 | {"NO": 101.15440011857713, "YES": 99.16430110867616} | 1 | test-binary-market | 1 | test binary market | 1665526967014 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.7695537962162238 | True | play | YES | public | 1665526520967 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665526967014 | 120 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1665526781682 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 1665526781555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.5887355477484346 | hO0hLuB5Pkf54rEiFRb0 | {"NO": 100, "YES": 100} | 0.007196933145315632 | example-please-ignore | 0 | Example, please ignore | 1665527343827 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.862753992610183 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665527034488 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": []} | PSEUDO_NUMERIC | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665527343827 | 100 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1665527034488 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5887355477484346 | 0.007196933145315632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TEW8dlA3pxk3GalxeQkI | which-character-is-best | 0 | Which character is best? | 1665527444509 | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 5.0189258735310585 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665527369460 | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is purely intended as a poll to try and settle an argument. It will resolve to MKT.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve if any of the following are true:", "ty... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665527444509 | 260 | LivInTheLookingGlass | 1665527370950 | 0 | 1 | 0 | DISABLED | [{"id": "83c07b62c657", "prob": 0.3333333333333333, "text": "Harry Potter", "index": 0, "poolNo": 40.85505846855608, "userId": "k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2", "isOther": false, "poolYes": 81.71011693711216, "textFts": "'harri':1 'potter':2", "contractId": "TEW8dlA3pxk3GalxeQkI", "createdTime": 1665527369460, "probChang... | 1 | 1665527369460 | {"83c07b62c657": 50, "e822c4e22d6a": 50} | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.0693240708560537 | lV8btPZreOyL28suoNmM | {"NO": 847.083613314576, "YES": 2360.354914375742} | 0.02603618612689619 | will-eddie-izzard-be-elected-to-par | 2477.0749201303406 | Will Eddie Izzard be elected to Parliament? | 1738389540000 | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 10.586609649448985 | False | basic | public | 1665549139326 | Bolton Bailey | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Eddie Izzard is elected as a member of parliament in the next UK General election.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": -6.938893903907228e-18, "week": -6.938893903907228e-18, "month": -6.938893903907228e-18} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0.009134528056326512, "platformFee": 0.009134528056326512, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1000 | BoltonBailey | 1716208316187 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "userId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1665549139896}] | ["politics-default"] | 0.5 | 1716208312724 | 1676323600179 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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0.47387172804461697 | ilZJPC7DjdD2H53nPAES | {"NO": 42.71885365977522, "YES": 1098.4101027094903} | 0 | will-there-be-a-us-rail-workers-str-b992315f1aa5 | 1628.2589752295048 | Will there be a US rail workers Strike or Lockout resulting in work stoppage by union employees for over 12 hours by end of November 2022? | 1669870740000 | absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.711100907540496 | True | play | NO | public | 1665574287659 | Joe Brenton | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if any of the 12 labor unions* representing rail workers enact a strike or there is a lockout (in either case work stoppage for >12 hours) before end of November 2022...and resolves to NO if a new agreement is entered ... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1669927952558 | 200 | JoeBrenton | 1669384613993 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Supply Chain", "slug": "supply-chain", "userId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "groupId": "QypbllpsjoA2LpuSwNB3", "createdTime": 1665574288233}] | ["supply-chain"] | 0.5 | 1669383506236 | 1669384611482 | 0.03384323199390298 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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u0I5eo96M1lqyXktZdKN | who-is-zellion | 55 | Who is Zellion? | 1675227540000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-multi-1 | 0 | 4.893920819158259 | True | play | CANCEL | public | 1665664172247 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://old.reddit.com/r/brandonsanderson/comments/y2b42l/new_cosmere_character_revealed_in_the_kickstarter/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://old.reddit.com/r/brandonsanderson/comments/y2b42l/new_cosmere_chara... | MULTIPLE_CHOICE | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1675685179271 | 360 | wasabipesto | 1688129762176 | 0 | 4 | 0 | ANYONE | [{"id": "9352d1725f12", "prob": 0.4162330905306972, "text": "Other", "index": 0, "poolNo": 37.48986635994165, "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "isOther": true, "poolYes": 52.57953756981816, "textFts": "", "contractId": "u0I5eo96M1lqyXktZdKN", "createdTime": 1665664173234, "probChanges": {"day": 0, "week": 0, "... | 2 | 3 | [{"name": "Fiction", "slug": "fiction", "userId": "2ekxJD8MeMfp96gghpjy3PRxjtW2", "groupId": "GAkkohPkxT6Phhb2RvHh", "createdTime": 1669223492242}, {"name": "Cosmere", "slug": "cosmere", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "W76fvvUmYWiPb6lyYtiI", "createdTime": 1665664173074}, {"name": "Books", "slug":... | ["cosmere", "fiction", "books"] | 0.07707729284124987 | 1673794907753 | 1688129760640 | True | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.7530708175145139 | IvyspdlHKM7tGAJzea8F | {"NO": 1443.5555548586606, "YES": 134.58593746692895} | 1 | will-manifold-continue-to-allow-unl | 1500.2144260113048 | Will Manifold continue to allow unlimited image generation with Stable Diffusion by EoY? | 1672549140000 | HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.33905663361882 | True | play | YES | public | 1665666812830 | wasabipesto | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if at any point Manifold implements rate limiting, max usage quotas, chaging mana per generation, or anything else that would limit users' ability to dream.", "type": "text"}]}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1672586500982 | 340 | wasabipesto | 1672478401567 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 12 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "HT8eUoGkBufqbNB7RayTEOV94VB2", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665666813350}, {"name": "Manifold Dream", "slug": "manifold-dream", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "t6WSzS2BSHrz3Tke0v6E", "createdTime": 166607364488... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-dream"] | 0.5 | 1672478401273 | 1666009444766 | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.14183586179839935 | oYQRGy62qyItwBIBpavv | {"NO": 57.666585392536945, "YES": 12014.114262924886} | 0 | does-gdpr-require-selfserviceautoma | 11960 | Does GDPR require self-service/automated account deletion? | 1665754597975 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 5.2453488882747665 | True | play | NO | public | 1665668397273 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GDPR requires organizations to delete user data upon request (with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "a few specific exceptions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-topic/data-protection/refor... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665754597975 | 180 | jack | 1665764330981 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665668397674}, {"name": "randomization", "slug": "randomization", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "YOkz3UZsh7MkxtA4ANBZ", "createdTime": 1667266467748}... | ["manifold-6748e065087e", "randomization"] | 0.5 | 1665754579291 | 1665764326444 | 0.0063167669455240875 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.8085537263613084 | ccLyfxKsIIg6x5em9oem | {"NO": 14775.98686290177, "YES": 139.35266225826854} | 1 | will-manifold-delete-hieronymusbosc | 15411.293841727616 | Will Manifold delete @HieronymusBosch's account as requested within 30 days? | 1665885654087 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 2.014407522303417 | True | play | YES | public | 1665669248013 | Jack | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "msrmImb94DWsf6ev4PWXvRD4ISL2", "label": "HieronymusBosch"}}, {"text": " 's account is deleted as they requested within 30 days (by Nov 12), NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"t... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1665885654087 | 380 | jack | 1666174045305 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665669248523}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1665885644382 | 1666174036991 | 0.9910540865616408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.20954040784351013 | nm9l4xOty2tmiDmxqY6f | {"NO": 247.1389068326958, "YES": 371.2418249563486} | 0.8 | mana-for-stuffies-by-20230114 | 5996.025258302398 | Mana for stuffies by 2023-01-14? | 1673672340000 | sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.9232679664047747 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665670395030 | Martin Randall | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if I can exchange mana directly for a stuffie aka cuddly toy. Resolves No if I cannot.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be open to all Manifold users. Private offers to swap m... | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1673798619152 | 300 | MartinRandall | 1674261836824 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | [{"name": "Manifold", "slug": "manifold-6748e065087e", "userId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "groupId": "hzyCW27Hf9NzuXZRizeZ", "createdTime": 1665670395518}] | ["manifold-6748e065087e"] | 0.5 | 1673670126541 | 1674261835319 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0.4976183363705321 | tBauRZKOGBVVFiLWGVFU | {"NO": 141.93249098686292, "YES": 178.92860279713184} | 0.4400000000000006 | would-andy-warhol-approve-of-this-a | 91.77458807493868 | Would Andy Warhol approve of this AI generated Warhol-style portrait of Xi Jinping? (resolves to MKT) | 1666324740000 | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | cpmm-1 | 0 | 1.955447824588381 | True | play | MKT | public | 1665670830077 | Brian T. Edwards | {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "Xi Jinping portrait by Andy warhol", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fpc4-KWSVNM.png?alt=media&token=321a7fba-726c-4a16-80bf-f86b9f13bcc6", "title": null}}]} | BINARY | {"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0} | 0 | {"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0} | 0 | 1666542247075 | 160 | BTE | 1707711085685 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | [{"name": "Chinese Communist Party 20th National Party Congress", "slug": "ccp-20th-party-congress", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "YfcYoy7TWbZtUOs0GLfq", "createdTime": 1665670830444}, {"name": "🤖 AI", "slug": "ai", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1707711084064}] | ["ccp-20th-party-congress", "ai"] | 0.5 | 1666244961804 | 0.4400000000000006 |
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