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egIfvR9lZq6Z2Hq0nViv
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will-a-10b-parameter-multimodal-rl
1039.4398679351737
Will a 10B parameter multimodal RL model be trained by Deepmind in the next 12 months?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.2768663007044903
True
play
NO
public
1665523304915
Bionic
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1697228433418
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BionicD0LPH1N
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0.13470075074833374
will-nvidia-announce-a-strategic-re
663.1301983956631
Will NVIDIA announce a strategic relationship with an AGI-focused organization?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.2831342204335656
True
play
CANCEL
public
1665523414585
Bionic
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BINARY
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1697228522188
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BionicD0LPH1N
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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1
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1697038536578
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1
will-a-sota-lm-be-trained-on-10x-mo
93.59431772542025
Will a SOTA LM be trained on 10x more data points than Chinchilla, proving data-set scaling vs. parameter scaling?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
1.3721677402674084e-16
2.0111888440279904
True
play
YES
public
1665523481568
Bionic
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1697228537112
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BionicD0LPH1N
1697123693434
0.2
https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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0
1
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[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523482003}, {"name": "Ancient Markets", "slug": "ancient-markets", "userId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "groupId": "W7VPHYmVlkpe1YEGiSeE", "createdTime": 1680736999326}]
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will-generative-audio-tools-emerge
1584.961772076326
Will generative audio tools emerge that attract over 100,000 developers by September 2023?
1696219140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.2699435059026158
True
play
YES
public
1665523618978
Bionic
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1697228595508
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BionicD0LPH1N
1697228881205
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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0
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will-gafam-invest-1b-into-an-agi-or
396.2900468850267
Will GAFAM invest >$1B into an AGI or open-source AI company (e.g. OpenAI)?
1697083140000
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cpmm-1
0
2.5809658690174255
True
play
YES
public
1665523739798
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1697228557904
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BionicD0LPH1N
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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will-reality-bite-for-semiconductor
1778.1149008534342
Will reality bite for semiconductor startups in the face of NVIDIA’s dominance and a high-profile start-up is shut down or acquired for <50% of its most recent valuation?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.9172866806482554
True
play
NO
public
1665523799011
Bionic
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BINARY
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0
1697228621889
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BionicD0LPH1N
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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will-a-proposal-to-regulate-agi-lab
304.5483343988932
Will a proposal to regulate AGI Labs like Biosafety Labs get backing from an elected UK, US or EU politician?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.3185628023317022
True
play
NO
public
1665523831135
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BINARY
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1697228786398
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BionicD0LPH1N
1697123603883
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will-100m-be-invested-in-dedicated
7571.134768137119
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0.8037400515518512
0.37315012299604544
True
basic
YES
public
1665523870104
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BINARY
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1697228839783
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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will-a-major-usergenerated-content
799.663067516111
Will a major user-generated content side (e.g. Reddit) negotiate a commercial settlement with a start-up producing AI models (e.g. OpenAI) for training on their corpus of user-generated content?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-1
0
1.079485706926714
True
play
YES
public
1665523924232
Bionic
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1697228824862
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BionicD0LPH1N
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0
1
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[{"name": "AI", "slug": "ai", "userId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "groupId": "yEWvvwFFIqzf8JklMewp", "createdTime": 1665523924682}]
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1697082998190
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KQ8nRdHy3Io3qyt3SNZ2
how-many-state-of-ai-report-2021-pr-d02d0781fc90
454
How many State of AI Report 2022 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2023 report?
1697083140000
IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2
cpmm-multi-1
0
4.701455380105685
True
play
7c8ccbeab665
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1665524347195
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MULTIPLE_CHOICE
0
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0
1697228234912
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BionicD0LPH1N
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https://firebasestorage.…acf-a75f6a5cfcbc
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{"NO": 5965.251067041674, "YES": 37.18798894906178}
1
will-eur-be-worth-more-than-usd-aga
6702.835749759885
Will EUR be worth more than USD again before November?
1666786846010
Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1
cpmm-1
0
2.514590876650084
True
play
YES
public
1665525939931
Tim P
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1666786846010
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TimP
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test-binary-market
1
test binary market
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cpmm-1
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2.7695537962162238
True
play
YES
public
1665526520967
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}
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1665526967014
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LivInTheLookingGlass
1665526781682
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0
2
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1665526781555
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0.007196933145315632
example-please-ignore
0
Example, please ignore
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k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-1
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2.862753992610183
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play
MKT
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Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
{"type": "doc", "content": []}
PSEUDO_NUMERIC
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
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1665527343827
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LivInTheLookingGlass
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1
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which-character-is-best
0
Which character is best?
1665527444509
k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2
cpmm-multi-1
0
5.0189258735310585
True
play
MKT
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1665527369460
Olivia🏳️‍⚧️
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0
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
0
1665527444509
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LivInTheLookingGlass
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example-please-ignore-3bb899a9dbd1
0
Example, please ignore
1665527778134
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cpmm-1
0
2.862753992610183
True
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Will Eddie Izzard be elected to Parliament?
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uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2
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10.586609649448985
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Bolton Bailey
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BoltonBailey
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will-i-win-nanowrimo-2022
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Will I win NaNoWriMo 2022?
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cpmm-1
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1.128343764399052
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LukeW
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Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.
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Harrison Lucas
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Will Nury Martinez resign from the Los Angeles City Council by October 31?
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cpmm-1
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2.7976782920841563
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Mike Chen
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Did Elon speak with Putin?
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cpmm-1
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CANCEL
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1665557672378
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will-nikki-haley-run-for-president
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cpmm-1
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YES
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N.C. Young
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Conditional on Trump being indicted for any crime in any jurisdiction, what crime is he indicted for first?
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cpmm-multi-1
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1665565331624
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conditional-on-trump-being-convicte-4cc52d9c33cc
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Conditional on Trump being convicted of any crime in any jurisdiction, what crime is he convicted of first?
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cpmm-multi-1
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will-there-be-a-us-rail-workers-str-b992315f1aa5
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Will there be a US rail workers Strike or Lockout resulting in work stoppage by union employees for over 12 hours by end of November 2022?
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2.711100907540496
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NO
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1665574287659
Joe Brenton
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Will the Washington Commanders beat the Chicago Bears on Thursday night?
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0.9394518956620026
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Will the Mango Markets attacker keep $65mn or more?
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3.123472584074842
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NO
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1665581713249
Nathan Young
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was-avraham-eisenberg-involved-in-t
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Was Avraham Eisenberg involved in the Mango attack?
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cpmm-1
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1.8685737009797188
True
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YES
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1665584789202
GeorgeVii
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1665585211731
Brian T. Edwards
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will-the-dodgers-defeat-the-padres
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Will the Dodgers defeat the Padres in Game 2 of the NLDS (Oct 12, AKA Today)?
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cpmm-1
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1.9988457557434192
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Will Manifold Markets introduce an automated way to delete accounts by the end of October 2022?
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