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# What are your favorite examples of adults in and around this community publicly changing their minds?
Search turns up [a](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e49D6yNRyoLuiEy3f/have-you-changed-your-mind-lately-on-what) [few](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W2ZymNJFWbirwctxo/so-you-ve-changed-your-mind) [threads](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e89wAuqAaChzxDoKh/what-are-your-favorite-examples-of-adults-in-and-around-this |
# Thoughts on Ad Blocking
*Disclosure: I work on ads at Google; this is a personal post.*
In the discussion of [why I work on ads](https://www.jefftk.com/p/why-i-work-on-ads) people asked whether I use an ad blocker (no) and what I think of them (it's complicated). So, what about ad blockers?
It should be up to you ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttmoEihQvcPjN8cru/thoughts-on-ad-blocking |
# Let's Go Back To Normal
(Personal opinion; not a doctor; edited because I accidentally published the draft)
In a few months, the US should stop being careful around COVID. For the vaccinated, most of you should stop being careful now.
We’re in a new era of COVID. We have some amazingly effective vaccines that high... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rWXNvq96jTH9YAm7J/let-s-go-back-to-normal |
# Anthropics: different probabilities, different questions
I've written before that different theories of anthropic probability [are really answers to different questions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nxRjC93AmsFkfDYQj/anthropic-probabilities-answering-different-questions). In this post I'll try to be as clear as p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LARmKTbpAkEYeG43u/anthropics-different-probabilities-different-questions |
# Why are the websites of major companies so bad at core functionality?
Intuitively, you might think that Amazon cares about people being able to enter their banking details as easily as possible. In reality at least Amazon.de doesn't seem to care. Instead of instantly validating with Javascript that a entered IBAN i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fcc5BLcMdfT8FuwTK/why-are-the-websites-of-major-companies-so-bad-at-core |
# Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension
The Biden administration’s latest strategy for the pandemic is to suspend the vaccine patents without compensation. Our life expectancies are lower than they were last week.
It’s a shame. I like the idea of rewarding those who do amazing things for myself and for the world. I li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mvCFcse3mrsjnuJJ8/covid-5-6-vaccine-patent-suspension |
# Parsing Chris Mingard on Neural Networks
*This is independent research. To make further posts like this possible, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: This is my understanding of multiple years of technical work by several researchers in just a few days of r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5p4ynEJQ8nXxp2sxC/parsing-chris-mingard-on-neural-networks |
# Less Realistic Tales of Doom
Realistic tales of doom must weave together many political, technical, and economic considerations into a single story. Such tales provide concrete projections but omit discussion of less probable paths to doom. To rectify this, here are some concrete, less realistic tales of doom; consi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZRTr6rEcpYtfMTDBs/less-realistic-tales-of-doom |
# Taking the outside view on code quality
Is it worth refactoring `yyyymmdd` to `currentDate`? I think that there are two ways to look at it.
You can zoom in and ask yourself questions about whether such a refactor will actually have a business impact. Will it improve velocity? Reduce bugs? Sure, `currentDate` might ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qWGzwtEpPWT9ip4LJ/taking-the-outside-view-on-code-quality |
# Bayeswatch 3: A Study in Scarlet
Miriam and Vi brunched at the Dusty Knuckle. Miriam's cell phone rang.
"Hello?" said Miriam.
"Someone painted the roof of the Glasgow Weather Prediction Center scarlet," said the voice.
Miriam hung up her phone. She activated voice obfuscation. Miriam called another number.
"This... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4TN39PgtziJENiPm/bayeswatch-3-a-study-in-scarlet |
# Domain Theory and the Prisoner's Dilemma: FairBot
*Wishes it were crossposted from the* [*AI Alignment Forum*](https://alignmentforum.org/)*. Contains more technical jargon than usual.*
Recall [Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma](https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577) and a hint of [domain theory](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g2uTtLxL4s6daTw9u/domain-theory-and-the-prisoner-s-dilemma-fairbot |
#
Zero to One: A Minimum Viable Review
This is Peter Thiel’s matrix:
In his book, Zero To One, and in [this talk at SXSW](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw), Thiel essentially explains that where we are as a soc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tdCM2fHpoCmypqkqP/zero-to-one-a-minimum-viable-review |
# Life and expanding steerable consequences
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: I believe this is a helpful lens through which to view the significance of AI in a way that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tmZRyXvH9dgopcnuE/life-and-expanding-steerable-consequences |
# Why quantitative finance is so hard
**This is not financial advice.**
---
Quantitative finance (QF) is the art of using mathematics to extract money from a securities market. A **security** is a fungible financial asset. Securities include stocks, bonds, futures, currencies, cryptocurrencies and so on. People ofte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/knCyLy9Yjbczet7gD/why-quantitative-finance-is-so-hard |
# D&D.Sci May 2021: Monster Carcass Auction
You are an apprentice to Carver, the most successful butcher in your tiny, snow-swept village. Today, for the first time since you joined her, she is sending you to buy carcasses at the daily Auction.
(The ([first-price, sealed-bid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-price... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/afcBzhBmmiL6ba5vm/d-and-d-sci-may-2021-monster-carcass-auction |
# Interview with Christine M. Korsgaard: Animal Ethics, Kantianism, Utilitarianism
[Christine M. Korsgaard](http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~korsgaar/) was kind enough to [answer a few questions](https://www.erichgrunewald.com/posts/interview-with-christine-m-korsgaard-animal-ethics-kantianism-utilitarianism/) of mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24dJcMufrvujWyP7S/interview-with-christine-m-korsgaard-animal-ethics |
# Migraine hallucinations, phenomenology, and cognition
I have several times in my life experienced migraine hallucinations. I call them that because they [look](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aura_(symptom)) exactly like what other people report under that name.
I'll come back to those.
If I look at someone, and hol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jmRghCzTi97Jw46fB/migraine-hallucinations-phenomenology-and-cognition |
# Pre-Training + Fine-Tuning Favors Deception
Thanks to Evan Hubinger for helpful comments and discussion.
Currently, to obtain models useful for some task X, models are pre-trained on some task Y, then fine-tuned on task X. For example, to obtain a model that can summarize articles, a large language model is first p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rZTjsKy4Jvu6krWJt/pre-training-fine-tuning-favors-deception |
# a visual explanation of Bayesian updating
As a teaser here is the visual version of Bayesian updating:
But in order to understand that figure we need to go through the prior and likelihood!
You find me standing in a ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kkYoiPp3CiPG5AK4L/a-visual-explanation-of-bayesian-updating |
# MIRI location optimization (and related topics) discussion
**Added June 28:** Blake Borgeson [comments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgszmZwrDHwG3qurr/miri-location-optimization-and-related-topics-discussion?commentId=uqZ3ZWxzeuWQaJLes) below,
> Update: After a lot more discussion and thinking things over, MIRI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgszmZwrDHwG3qurr/miri-location-optimization-and-related-topics-discussion |
# Review and Comparison: Onto-Cartography & Promise Theory
### Introduction
This is my first post here, although I've lurked for five or six years. I came up with this idea when I noticed similarities in these two books and reread them - both tackle some flavor of practical ontology, but from different angles. [The f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CYeW9a6WbFRK43jC3/review-and-comparison-onto-cartography-and-promise-theory |
# The Nuclear Energy Alignment Problem
Berlin, 1938.
"Have you ever thought about the Anthropic principle? Chances are about half the people who have ever lived will die before us and half after. The human population has been growing at an exponential rate. There is probably a disaster waiting just around the corner,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CsEY8EgpxQNAPiMiA/the-nuclear-energy-alignment-problem |
# Social host liability
I'd like to talk about [social host liability](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_host_liability). If, as you read that term, you parsed it as 'social' as in social media, 'host' as in webhost, and 'liability' as in if a social media webhost does something negligent that causes harm to come t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xErhEhPpPjJvDFNaT/social-host-liability |
# [Event] Weekly Alignment Research Coffee Time (05/10)
Just like every Monday now, researchers in AI Alignment are invited for a coffee time, to talk about their research and what they're into.
Here is the [link](https://www.lesswrong.com/walledGardenPortal/?code=aWhF&event=alignment-researcher-coffee-time-1).
An... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ErXseAhtiymqRdCq9/event-weekly-alignment-research-coffee-time-05-10 |
# Academia as Company Hierarchy
In [The Gervais Principle](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/the-gervais-principle/), Venkatesh Rao argues that the show *The Office* "is not a random series of cynical gags aimed at momentarily alleviating the existential despair of low-level grunts. It is a fully realized theory of managemen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wd7qxFBF2swRscBiS/academia-as-company-hierarchy |
# Peekskill Lyme Incidence
Let's say you're [considering moving your nonprofit](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgszmZwrDHwG3qurr/miri-location-optimization-and-related-topics-discussion) out of the Bay Area, and are considering somewhere in the Hudson Valley, perhaps near Peekskill NY. Looking at CDC maps it seems li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Ppg8nCrfSP6RptnG/peekskill-lyme-incidence |
# Human priors, features and models, languages, and Solmonoff induction
This post was originally inspired by Robin Hanson's publication "[Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5158932_Uncommon_Priors_Require_Origin_Disputes), but it took a left turn and brought in Solmonoff ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9aFpMtpivqPCBfx2w/human-priors-features-and-models-languages-and-solmonoff |
# Massachusetts Lyme Reporting
In putting together yesterday's post on [Lyme disease prevalence](https://www.jefftk.com/p/peekskill-lyme-incidence) I noticed something very strange with Massachusetts:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/ma-lyme-cases-by-year-suspect-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZpyQMEthstNKhKNJQ/massachusetts-lyme-reporting |
# A Wiki for Questions
Q&A sites
=========
Sites like stackexchange, r/askscience, quora, and lesswrong.com/questions all have a similar format. One person asks a question. Everyone gives their own answer. You can vote on answers to (hopefully) raise the best answer to the top. When the answer becomes out of date, if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msNe7KGaxMLJaS6ju/a-wiki-for-questions |
# Is driving worth the risk?
− [The Thinking Ladder](https://waitbutwhy.com/2019/09/thinking-ladder.html)
> Harry was wondering if he could ev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AL6jdmpcxESxQTpfQ/is-driving-worth-the-risk |
# Challenge: know everything that the best go bot knows about go
On a few different views, understanding the computation done by neural networks is crucial to building neural networks that constitute human-level artificial intelligence that doesn’t destroy all value in the universe. Given that many people are trying t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m5frrcYTSH6ENjsc9/challenge-know-everything-that-the-best-go-bot-knows-about |
# Yampolskiy on AI Risk Skepticism
Roman Yampolskiy posted a preprint for "AI Risk Skepticism". Here's the abstract:
> In this work, we survey skepticism regarding AI risk and show parallels with other types of scientific skepticism. We start by classifying different types of AI Risk skepticism and analyze their root... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D3PnBxkj5jkKPm6jr/yampolskiy-on-ai-risk-skepticism |
# Texas Far-Comers Meetup in Austin
Every so often, we designate a meetup to be the focal point for people to come to the Austin meetup if they have to come a long distance.
This time it will be at [The Brewtorium](https://www.thebrewtorium.com/) ([menu](https://www.thebrewtorium.com/food)), which has large indoor ta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/TAmntujiYXccKTKKD/texas-far-comers-meetup-in-austin |
# Massachusetts Tick-Borne Disease Distribution
As I wrote yesterday, [MA is no longer reporting good data to the CDC on Lyme disease](https://www.jefftk.com/p/massachusetts-lyme-reporting). Starting in 2019, however, MA has been publishing [tick-borne disease reports](https://www.mass.gov/lists/monthly-tickborne-dise... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hcMFu9f4DEwBgHaA5/massachusetts-tick-borne-disease-distribution |
# Louisiana Gets Vaccine Passports Right
Quietly, with very little fanfare, Louisiana got vaccine passports right.
[https://lawallet.com/covid19/](https://lawallet.com/covid19/)
What's not to like?
First off, let's take a peek at their guiding principles:
*
Chrome has proposed [TURTLEDOVE](https://github.com/WICG/turtledove) to support remarketing ads without sending your browsing history to advertisers. (discussed in [why I work on ads](https://www.jefftk.com/p/why-i-work-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7dToz4gj2qvMHCE8P/testing-the-fledge-prototype |
# Personal Advice/Request: Can I be your apprentice?
It has not been very long since I joined LessWrong but I have been truly enjoying the intelligent conversations/debates going on here, whether it is about general rationality, ML/AI, or investment. In the meantime, I find myself thinking Albert Einstein’s famous quo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BADqDafCFvFXpQFvE/personal-advice-request-can-i-be-your-apprentice |
# [AN #150]: The subtypes of Cooperative AI research
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3zmKzbMPjPvEcZfkn/an-150-the-subtypes-of-cooperative-ai-research |
# Formal Inner Alignment, Prospectus
Most of the work on inner alignment so far has been informal or semi-formal (with the notable exception of a little work on minimal circuits). I feel this has resulted in some misconceptions about the problem. I want to write up a large document clearly defining the formal problem ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7jnbtoKFyvu5qfkd/formal-inner-alignment-prospectus |
# Agency in Conway’s Game of Life
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: I have been thinking about these ideas for years but still have not clarified them to my satisfaction... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3SG4WbNPoP8fsuZgs/agency-in-conway-s-game-of-life |
# The case for hypocrisy
Related: [The case for logical fallacies ](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKov2STqvE4Yvpfrt/the-case-for-logical-fallacies)
Julia Galef makes an interesting point in her recent book [*The Scout Mindset*](https://www.amazon.com/Scout-Mindset-Perils-Defensive-Thinking/dp/0735217556): our belie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mNvwvKoNaBmhwKuFi/the-case-for-hypocrisy |
# Scott Aaronson at the AstralCodexTen Online Meetup
Professor Scott Aaronson will take your questions. After that, we will socialize online.
Please register [here](https://forms.gle/7GBLuMb1oeNNF3X69?fbclid=IwAR1mhvCae5NZeAs_W581bGueH-DgZg6z5Ztwir---2nm05h3jO1yaxL3Gbk) and we will send you an invitation before the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/AJX8EKjyEFiYbAmgk/scott-aaronson-at-the-astralcodexten-online-meetup |
# Covid 5/13: Moving On
For over a year, Covid-19 has been the central fact of life.
The goal now is _to make that no longer true. _
If you’re reading this, chances are very high you are vaccinated. If you’re not reading this, but you live in the United States, chances are still pretty good you’re vaccinated.
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sc8KwbtpZkTG44cbT/covid-5-13-moving-on |
# Vaccine Rollout as Wheeled-Luggage Problem
According to [FiercePharma](https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-reports/vaccine-supply-chains-holding-line-against-covid-19), Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Novavax plan to produce a combined ~9 billion doses this year. They are collaborating with oth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ENS8bZmPoghpRis6u/vaccine-rollout-as-wheeled-luggage-problem |
# Understanding the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: The thread of research I’m reviewing here has been contentious in the past so I expect ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dpzLqQQSs7XRacEfK/understanding-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis |
# AXRP Episode 7 - Side Effects with Victoria Krakovna
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XhFjlRMhdg&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=7)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C9vj5ZX3KsgFfwXAN/axrp-episode-7-side-effects-with-victoria-krakovna |
# Does butterfly affect?
*Can a butterfly really cause a hurricane?*
Having been working in complexity science, I realize that I have a problem with the conventional understanding of the butterfly effect. Sure, in ideal deterministic chaotic systems, the butterfly effect does a great job illustrating the quasi-stocha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/quQwHZTaRDJFoTYLd/does-butterfly-affect |
# Hypothesis Space Entropy
In [Why quantitative finance is so hard](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/knCyLy9Yjbczet7gD/why-quantitative-finance-is-so-hard) I explained why the entropy of your dataset must exceed the entropy of your hypothesis space. I used a simple hypothesis space with $n$ equally likely hypotheses ea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZWcE8c6KyrcTZ7qHb/hypothesis-space-entropy |
# Zvi's Law of No Evidence
Update: Zvi wrote [his own post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9HoG56Y6KuopSzdn/law-of-no-evidence).
---
> Law of No Evidence: Any claim that there is “no evidence” of something is evidence of bullshit.
>
> ―[*Covid 5/13: Moving On*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sc8KwbtpZkTG44cbT/cov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KA7A3xsM6DgvDk7Yk/zvi-s-law-of-no-evidence |
# Deliberately Vague Language is Bullshit
Bullshit is what comes out of the mouth of someone who values persuasion over truth. Truth is about communicating information. **Vague language** communicates less information than precise language.
It is important to distinguish vague language from general, poetic and simple... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9XKBHeLPnTXfBeaqP/deliberately-vague-language-is-bullshit |
# Why Democracy?
I am an avid and radical believer in the [systemic property](https://eaasos.info/Content/System/CPT_SysProps.htm) of democracy. But if you had asked me (before I wrote this, anyway) *why* I hold such a strong and deeply-held belief, I would have been uncomfortable with the amount of [cultural conditio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbeeRndfd8DK4xbK5/why-democracy |
# D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/afcBzhBmmiL6ba5vm/d-and-d-sci-may-2021-monster-carcass-auction) I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-and-d-sci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X58tvxHkambopnn6L/d-and-d-sci-may-2021-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Concerning not getting lost
*Content warning: striving, awkwardness, expressions of personal insecurities*
## Outline
* This post is somewhat personal.
* I try to convey why I think it’s important to stay in touch with a certain personal voice.
* The reason I give is that without this personal voice, we are li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iQnkxLRXGzgoAfhAv/concerning-not-getting-lost-1 |
# Utopic Nightmares
Utopias are hard to believe in.
Our basis for normality - and thus for our frame of reference for the world - obviously follows from what we’ve seen and experienced in the world around us. But utopias are hard to write, so, never seeing them, we’re left with a glaring emptiness in place of cach... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9yunrXrP6M5zmWDcD/utopic-nightmares |
# How to compute the probability you are flipping a trick coin
Suppose you flip a coin $n$ times and get $n$ heads in a row. What is the probability the next flip will land heads?
Suppose the coin is either a fair coin with one heads or a trick coin with two heads. Let $X$ denote our training data of $n$ heads. We wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kumfertEGfGdNmr6J/how-to-compute-the-probability-you-are-flipping-a-trick-coin |
# Intermittent Distillations #3
# Mundane solutions to exotic problems (Paul Christiano)
[Mundane solutions to exotic problems](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/d5m3G3ov5phZu7FX3/mundane-solutions-to-exotic-problems)
## Summary
Thinking about AI safety often leads to considering exotic problems: models purpose... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jnHxfXgyQj3ALsD5a/intermittent-distillations-3 |
# Technocratic Plimsoll Line
_Plimsoll line is a marking where the hull of a ship meets the surface of the water._
I've just read a discussion between [Glen Weyl](https://www.radicalxchange.org/media/blog/2019-08-19-bv61r6/) and [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AT47QboF7JeiMC25t/technocratic-plimsoll-line |
# The Purpose of Purpose
1. I often make reference to the category I call variously purpose, care, concern, meaning, norms, or telos (I'll just use "purpose" from here on out to point to it).
1. I've not really explained what I mean by it in great detail.
2. That's a problem because it's the ground of reaso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/agvmvrzM6um462DC2/the-purpose-of-purpose |
# Suppose $1 billion is given to AI Safety. How should it be spent?
What are the current bottlenecks in AI Safety progress, and if they were solved with money, what would be the next bottlenecks?
Do current researchers need more money? Do we need to catalyze the creation of more researchers? Do we need to alter publ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EoqaNexFaXrJjbBM4/suppose-usd1-billion-is-given-to-ai-safety-how-should-it-be |
# Thinking About Generators
Every so often I think about what we would do in an extended power outage. Generally this comes up when a crisis is in the news, so not a good time to buy things. During the [February Texas Storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis) I set myself a reminder for three month... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gmjKJKMf3Mpsr2F8L/thinking-about-generators |
# Why Glen Weyl is a technocrat
In 2019 Glen Weyl wrote the article [Why I Am Not A Technocrat](https://www.radicalxchange.org/media/blog/2019-08-19-bv61r6/) where he asserted that while he isn't a technocrat the rationality community is technocratic. I think he suffers from a case of projection because he fails to un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4q23a2aNKBrtg2eYm/why-glen-weyl-is-a-technocrat |
# What will 2040 probably look like assuming no singularity?
I'm looking for a list such that for each entry on the list we can say "Yep, probably that'll happen by 2040, even conditional on no super-powerful AGI / intelligence explosion / etc." Contrarian opinions are welcome but I'm especially interested in stuff th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ww5xKq5brC4xAJY7o/what-will-2040-probably-look-like-assuming-no-singularity |
# How concerned are you about LW reputation management?
I've been considering why I sometimes vote, but don't comment on posts, even though I'd like to. Sometimes, I delete substantial comments that I've already written.
I think the reason is something like reputation management. Ideally, we'd all feel safe to debate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hv5qPA7QgvrFzeYwt/how-concerned-are-you-about-lw-reputation-management |
# Houston Rationalists Virtual Meetup May 19
Hey y'all,
Our next meetup is Wednesday May 19th from 5:30pm to 8:30pm central time!
We'll meet virtually via Jitsi, and I'll post the meetup room link in the comments here and on our other platforms 5-10 minutes prior to 5:30pm.
I have two suggested readings for this me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PrtaHcy4RW2drvnua/houston-rationalists-virtual-meetup-may-19 |
# SpaceX should provide IPFS proxies with Starlink
If everything goes according to plan for SpaceX, SpaceX will start permanent bases on moon and mars in the next decade. One challenge for moon and mars bases will be that a good chunk of the software we have on earth stops working when there's no internet connection.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEqsiumDwgGj7hdnq/spacex-should-provide-ipfs-proxies-with-starlink |
# A.D&D.Sci May 2021: Interdimensional Monster Carcass Auction
You are the most successful butcher in your tiny, snow-swept village. You’re just about to close up shop when a man appears from an interdimensional portal and offers to sell you carcasses from a distant timeline.
You’d be more perturbed, but you live and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kmZjtuo4Gzv5WhTTX/a-d-and-d-sci-may-2021-interdimensional-monster-carcass |
# Love on Cartesian Planes
**Introduction**
================
*Note: this was originally published on* [*Medium*](https://medium.com/@mr.silv3r/love-on-cartesian-planes-23160c81854)*, since I'm putting a bunch of other related posts here I thought it best to migrate the original as well.*
For over a decade now I’ve h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uqtJpF2ywSFzihpGn/love-on-cartesian-planes-1 |
# What Would You Store to Maximize Value in 100 Years? A Thought Experiment
This is cross-posted from [my blog](https://www.johncgreer.com/max-value-in-100-years/).
When I was a kid, I used to want to not take my action figures out of the packaging because I knew it would mess up the collector’s value of it. After a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SfbesWBQQY3RJkJKa/what-would-you-store-to-maximize-value-in-100-years-a |
# Knowledge Neurons in Pretrained Transformers
This is a link post for the Dai et al. paper “[Knowledge Neurons in Pretrained Transformers](https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.08696)” that was published on the arXiv last month. I think this paper is probably the most exciting machine learning paper I've read so far this year a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdoKzGom7gPLqEZyQ/knowledge-neurons-in-pretrained-transformers |
# Are PS5 scalpers actually bad?
Lately, I've been trying to get my hands on a [PlayStation 5][wiki_ps5]. These are [in pretty short supply in the UK these days][indy_ps5] – thanks to the [chip shortage][reuters_chip], and exacerbated by [Ever Given][ever_given], demand currently far outstrips supply. To get a PS5 fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cc2PR7eDFo8achM86/are-ps5-scalpers-actually-bad |
# Saving Time
For the last few years, a large part of my research motivation has been directed at trying to save the concept of time—save it, for example, from all the weird causal loops created by decision theory problems. This post will hopefully explain why I care so much about time, and what I think needs to be fi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEKHX8WKrXGM4roRC/saving-time |
# SGD's Bias
There’s a common hypothesis that stochastic gradient descent has some kind of built-in bias toward simpler models, or models which generalize better. (It’s essentially the opposite of the [NTK/GP/Mingard et al model](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9p5KWNWcthccsxqm/updating-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ej2r2JADoWiEtxkCd/sgd-s-bias |
# This Sunday, 12PM PT: Scott Garrabrant on "Finite Factored Sets"
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another LW weekly online meetup.
MIRI's Scott Garrabrant will be giving a talk introducing Finite Factored Sets, a new proposed successor to Judea-Pearl-style causal reasoning. Scott writes that Finite Factored... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/LpX6t9rudniuWpLWQ/this-sunday-12pm-pt-scott-garrabrant-on-finite-factored-sets |
# There is no No Evidence
Zvi [recently coined](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sc8KwbtpZkTG44cbT/covid-5-13-moving-on), and has now [written up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9HoG56Y6KuopSzdn/law-of-no-evidence) this **Law of No Evidence:**
> Law of No Evidence: Any claim that there is “no evidence” of something ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rYRAQGxky2MLEqsGd/there-is-no-no-evidence |
# Bayeswatch 4: Mousetrap
Miriam chucked the replica *Salvator Mundi* into the bonfire.
"We do a lot of shooting first and asking questions never," said Vi.
"Personnel are expensive. AIs are replaceable. We have standard operating procedures. It wasn't always this way. AIs used to be rare. Knowledge was precious in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gpgMe4zsrT5gL6BcA/bayeswatch-4-mousetrap |
# [AN #151]: How sparsity in the final layer makes a neural net debuggable
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t2yeWvpGvzQ9sFrWc/an-151-how-sparsity-in-the-final-layer-makes-a-neural-net |
# Re: Fierce Nerds
Paul Graham just published an article titled [*Fierce Nerds*](http://paulgraham.com/fn.html). It's the most precise description of me I've ever read.
> Most people think of nerds as quiet, diffident people. In ordinary social situations they are — as quiet and diffident as the star quarterback woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pWJQGg7LgT9DAHnpv/re-fierce-nerds |
# How refined is your art of note-taking?
Over the last few months of studying "effective scholarship," I've concluded that a key skill is note-taking. In the near future, I plan to write fairly extensively on the subject. For now, I'm curious to hear how the LessWrong community takes notes. Some particular questions:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Db7DGkGimBR9bWxGq/how-refined-is-your-art-of-note-taking |
# Solar Production Data
We have solar panels on our house, configured so that we can have [backup power in a blackout](https://www.jefftk.com/p/home-solar-resiliency). In talking about [generators](https://www.jefftk.com/p/thinking-about-generators) and [power outages](https://www.jefftk.com/p/power-outage-chances) I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bCTSGAQjHpvKyP7jJ/solar-production-data |
# Time & Memory
*Epistemic status: fake psychology, no attempt to be correct in details, but maybe something broadly like this happens*
Ever had the experience of laughing at something, and then a few minutes later it sort of hits you again and you start laughing again?
Or forget someone's name you *just* used, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwyELkLoMvSEpnCn8/time-and-memory |
# Response to "What does the universal prior actually look like?"
These are my thoughts on [this](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like/) post of Paul Christiano. I claim "malign" models do not form the bulk of the Solomonoff prior.
> Suppose that we use the u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n2Gseb3XFpMyc2FEb/response-to-what-does-the-universal-prior-actually-look-like |
# Sabien on "work-life" balance
From Duncan Sabien:
> This morning, a friend of mine referred to his "work-life balance" and then grimaced at himself, and noted that he doesn't really like that term.
>
> (As far as I can tell, he doesn't like it because his work is important to him, and is part of being alive, and h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gRnd32CZnAzmpBaJi/sabien-on-work-life-balance |
# It's like poetry, they rhyme: Lanier and Yudkowsky, Glen and Scott
*\[EDIT: I've edited this post based on feedback. The original is on* [*archive.org*](https://web.archive.org/web/20210529090649/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Panh7EwfLDqRtbnEw/it-s-like-poetry-they-rhyme-lanier-and-yudkowsky-weyl-and-s-2)*.\]*
I'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Panh7EwfLDqRtbnEw/it-s-like-poetry-they-rhyme-lanier-and-yudkowsky-glen-and |
# Did the Industrial Revolution decrease costs or increase quality?
An oversimplified story of manufacturing progress during the Industrial Revolution is: “we automated manufacturing processes, and that decreased the cost of goods.” This is not wrong, but is not the full picture.
Mechanization—and other progress in m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KAHakTwwbFNJwGadD/did-the-industrial-revolution-decrease-costs-or-increase |
# Covid 5/20: The Great Unmasking
[The CDC has lifted its mask mandate for vaccinated people](https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1392898193957003269). In one fell swoop, it is suddenly fine for anyone fully vaccinated to go maskless anywhere, without social distancing, at any time, so long as regulations and rules per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RaaaKnQBcDDBvY4KT/covid-5-20-the-great-unmasking |
# Bayeswatch 5: Hivemind
Three humans sat around a table. The notary was unaugmented. He wore a charcoal business suit. The ancillary wore a silk paisley print top zippered at the back. A thick cable extended from the back of her head to the collective's mainframe. Trinity nervously fondled the virgin socket embedded ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HXzPqedCxEqLXn36S/bayeswatch-5-hivemind |
# Book Review of 5 Applied Bayesian Statistics Books
There are 5 strong contender for best Bayesian Statistics book
## TLDR
* Statistical Rethinking, henceforth **SR**[^SR]
* Up to speed fast, no integrals, very intuitive approach.
* Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, henceforth **The Dog Book**[^DOG]
* T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5EqGPCKvm6m9XC7JJ/book-review-of-5-applied-bayesian-statistics-books |
# The Argument For Spoilers
I'll say it right up-front: this is not an argument against cooperating with people who are trying to avoid spoilers. It's obviously a good idea to avoid spoiling people who don't want to be spoiled, so long as such people are sufficiently prevalent in the population that the minor inconven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DnySPmfQzvKcdsBER/the-argument-for-spoilers |
# AI Safety Research Project Ideas
This post contains project ideas in AI Safety from Owain Evans and Stuart Armstrong (researchers at [FHI](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/research/research-areas/#aisafety_tab)). Projects are aimed at students, postdocs or summer research fellows who would be interested in collaborating on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f69LK7CndhSNA7oPn/ai-safety-research-project-ideas |
# The Reebok effect
> The principle here is that if you’re trying to make the result sound as impressive as possible, an unintended consequence is that you’re revealing the upper limit.
Here is the full quote by Phil Price (from Andrew Gelman's blog):
> Many years ago I saw an ad for a running shoe (maybe it was Re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HDyTBpTvfBXDGZgJw/the-reebok-effect |
# The Web is Turning into Cable TV
(Cross-posted from my [blog](https://mattscodecave.com/posts/the-web-is-turning-into-cable-tv.html))
The Web was never perfect. There were always people using it to exploit others. Sometimes, it was the small-time Ebay scammer looking for a couple of dollars. Other times, it was a g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJbaPoBYGCcpkHsew/the-web-is-turning-into-cable-tv |
# Kids NCurses Messenger
Yesterday I wrote a program that lets me and [Lily](https://www.lilywise.com/) (7y) send messages back and forth:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/simplechat-slack-demo-big.png)
[](https://www.jefft... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwG9X5YG5fN9fHKbp/kids-ncurses-messenger |
# I'm Sorry Fluttershy
I could have been a hero in another world.
I will call the friend of mine who commissioned that picture Fluttershy. They posted it shortly before they killed themselves in early March. They weren't the easiest person to h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uAc7bWgpEhrGwFcv7/i-m-sorry-fluttershy |
# Book review: Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less
1\. Intro
=========
In a bold revolt against the tyranny of the [Lindy effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect), I recently finished Leidy Klotz’s month-old book [*Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less*](https://www.amazon.com/kindle-dbs/thankYouPage?_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CkDsWJWFBgKCgZfsd/book-review-subtract-the-untapped-science-of-less |
# Finite Factored Sets
This is the edited transcript of a talk introducing finite factored sets. For most readers, it will probably be the best starting point for learning about factored sets.
Video:
(Lightly edited) slides: [https://intelligence.org/files/Factored-Set-Slides.pdf](https://intelligence.org/files/Fa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N5Jm6Nj4HkNKySA5Z/finite-factored-sets |
# Burmese Days #4 Targeted costs
### Housekeeping
Now that exams are over I am restarting this series. Once again, each week will focus on a new dynamic with a game theory model. However, I am reducing focus on civilian killings as the conflict moves to rural and jungle regions. I am also adding a subtitle "how to ge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzkwMzjTNYWGF5tyC/burmese-days-4-targeted-costs |
# Don't feel bad about not knowing basic things
I recently made a mistake where I tried doing something like this in Ruby on Rails:
```
johns_campaign_logs = SmsLog.all.filter { |s| s.campaign_id == 1234 }
```
I did have a sense that it wasn't The Rails Way, but I also had a sense that it was quite readable and suff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Adp7krRkvzaXvweH/don-t-feel-bad-about-not-knowing-basic-things |
# Signalling lack of familiarity with outsiders or outside knowledge, to raise status among your in-group peers?
Here's a phenomenon I was thinking about.
In many situations, knowledgeable people don't just go out of their way to show off how much they're familiar with things that raise their clout with the ingro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Cv96kHvsacetM7rK/signalling-lack-of-familiarity-with-outsiders-or-outside |
# If individual performance is Pareto distributed, how should we reform education?
In [The best and the rest: Revisiting the norm of normality of individual performance (2012)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1744-6570.2011.01239.x), O’Boyle and Aguinis show that individual performance follows a Par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDokeedGWxHGggvAh/if-individual-performance-is-pareto-distributed-how-should |
# Controlling Intelligent Agents The Only Way We Know How: Ideal Bureaucratic Structure (IBS)
**Here's my claim: **
*"Ideal Bureaucratic Structure" (or IBS for short as I imagine this claim is likely to meet serious groans, maybe even deep from within your bowels) has an unparalleled ability to control and direct ind... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iekoEYDLgC7efzbBv/controlling-intelligent-agents-the-only-way-we-know-how |
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