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# Wanted: Research Assistant for The Roots of Progress
***UPDATE: I’ve filled this role. Thanks to all who applied!***
I’m hiring a part-time research assistant to support work on my [essays](https://rootsofprogress.org/posts), [talks](https://rootsofprogress.org/interviews), and the [book I’m writing](https://rootso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JdYy8Ycatcktmh99x/wanted-research-assistant-for-the-roots-of-progress |
# How can we increase the frequency of rare insights?
In many contexts, progress largely comes not from incremental progress, but from sudden and unpredictable insights. This is true at many different levels of scope—from one person's current project, to one person's life's work, to the aggregate output of an entire f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yyD5mQogGew4sJSs3/how-can-we-increase-the-frequency-of-rare-insights |
# Quick examination of miles per micromort for US drivers, with adjustments for safety-increasing behavior
This post links [to a Google Sheet containing a quick investigation into the accuracy of Wikipedia's figure for miles per micromort (230) for US drivers](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1F0CmumTbASFwki665t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ucjfY46L6qyXefvBT/quick-examination-of-miles-per-micromort-for-us-drivers-with |
# Iterated Trust Kickstarters
*Epistemic Status: I **haven't** actually used this through to completion with anyone. But, it seems like a tool that I expect to be useful, and it only really works if multiple people know about it.*
* * *
In this post, I want to make you aware of a few things:
**Iterated kickstarters... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5AoLQsRL8eShLApN9/iterated-trust-kickstarters-1 |
# [Letter] Advice for High School #1
> Hello! I'm a big fan of your work. Your perspectives on issues, while I may not always agree with them, are always insightful; thank you for helping make the world a more interesting place. I'm interested in learning Lisp and Vim, as it's been recommended many times by writers I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHR64sZESzqn8vc37/letter-advice-for-high-school-1 |
# Does an app/group for personal forecasting exist?
I'm interested in personal forecasting - predicting my own future behavior on a range of timescales. I see it as a more useful skill than forecasting on world events. Formulating personally useful forecasts seems like an important and neglected skill in the rationali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EjgMWPDTBXqX5mqAg/does-an-app-group-for-personal-forecasting-exist |
# Types of generalism
*\[Cross-posted from* [*here\]*](https://metabstract.squarespace.com/blog/types-of-generalism)
I am interested in the nature of inter- and transdisciplinary research, which often involves some notion of “generalism”. There are different ways to further conceptualize generalism in this context.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RikvDhDdLJcdpEfGq/types-of-generalism |
# Young kids catching COVID: how much to worry?
**Low confidence, slapdash job. Just putting this up in case other people want to compare notes.**
(*Update January 2022:* Since writing this, I've adjusted my risk assumption down a bit based on newer studies suggesting lower rates of long-COVID than earlier studies (m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xkD2ToMRRDDhAbBoj/young-kids-catching-covid-how-much-to-worry |
# Hard vs Soft in fields as attitudes towards model collision
Many people will describe physics, chemistry, microeconomics and some parts of biology as "hard sciences" while describing psychology, sociology, politics and other parts of biology as "soft sciences". I think this taps into a set of attitudes within each f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8n5cgfEmsyHmEGe9L/hard-vs-soft-in-fields-as-attitudes-towards-model-collision |
# Why “put down your phone and go outside” is Bad Advice.
If you’re like me in 2017, your phone is your drug of choice. My insurance didn’t provide me with any internet abuse rehab options. (Though at least one place exists.) I was sick of being a NEET and spending all my time online, so I gave my phone and laptop to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/di5H2QryrsJsziNvr/why-put-down-your-phone-and-go-outside-is-bad-advice |
# Thiel on secrets and indefiniteness
Some excerpts from Peter Thiel's 2014 book [*Zero to One*](https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296) that I've repeatedly come back to over the years:
> \[...\] Why has so much of our society come to believe that there are no hard secrets left? It might... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ReB7yoF22GuerNfhH/thiel-on-secrets-and-indefiniteness |
# Gradations of Inner Alignment Obstacles
The existing definitions of deception, inner optimizer, and some other terms tend to strike me as "stronger than necessary" depending on the context. If weaker definitions are similarly problematic, this means we need stronger methods to prevent them! I illustrate this and mak... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wpbpvjZCK3JhzpR2D/gradations-of-inner-alignment-obstacles |
# What am I fighting for?
_Status: toward the end of writing this I started reading Suffering-Focused Ethics by Magnus Vinding as well as more Brian Tomasik, and I'm feeling myself value-drift in a more negative direction. It's possible I will endorse none of what follows fairly soon._
_If you want to link to the hi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c4B45PGxCgY7CEMXr/what-am-i-fighting-for |
# Why don't we vaccinate people against smallpox any more?
The eradication of smallpox in 1979 represented one of the greatest achievements of modern civilization. However, since then most countries have elected to stop vaccinating their populations against the disease. This seems like a very concerning vulnerability ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ksE75dxtro3mDk44K/why-don-t-we-vaccinate-people-against-smallpox-any-more |
# Where are intentions to be found?
*This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
---
As we build powerful AI systems, we want to ensure that they are broadly beneficial. Pinning down exactly ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EA4Txiuo5Ce2b7iBd/where-are-intentions-to-be-found |
# [AN #147]: An overview of the interpretability landscape
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFwie6AoPyqGmMSsc/an-147-an-overview-of-the-interpretability-landscape |
# In Defence of Spock
*[Epistemic status: tongue-in-cheek]*
Spock has [traditionally had a poor reputation](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/straw-vulcan)
among the aspiring rationalists of the early 21st century; for his poorly calibrated
(even [anti-calibrated](https://www.wired.com/2021/04/geeks-guide-spock-logic/))
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FkvKewpBcXoccdmHe/in-defence-of-spock |
# Faerie Rings
This post describes "Faerie rings", a copiable form of community that forms a building block for capturing the upsides: learning from each other, deeper relationships, and support to solve problems that are beyond one's abilities. I believe it counts as a nascent prototype for an [Iterated Trust Kickst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eNDB2F8CdktderNyR/faerie-rings |
# What books are for: a response to "Why books don't work."
...and a follow up to my recent post “[Recommended Readings](https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/recommended-readings).”
Introduction
============
[Andy Matuschak](https://twitter.com/andy_matuschak)’s 2019 essay “[Why books don’t work](https://andymatuscha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ewxdp7zGiwvdEK3Cy/what-books-are-for-a-response-to-why-books-don-t-work |
# NTK/GP Models of Neural Nets Can't Learn Features
Since people are [talking about](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9p5KWNWcthccsxqm/updating-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis) the NTK/GP hypothesis of neural nets again, I thought it might be worth bringing up some recent research in the area that casts doubt on their e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/76cReK4Mix3zKCWNT/ntk-gp-models-of-neural-nets-can-t-learn-features |
# Covid 4/22: Crisis in India
The United States appears to have turned the corner. Despite our determination to sabotage vaccination efforts, they have taken only minor damage, and we are starting to see declines again in the number of cases. Unless a new strain more dangerous than the English one reverses things once... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4PTstS4Kt5hBMJTRL/covid-4-22-crisis-in-india |
# Two Designs
Here's a concrete example of two approaches to a software problem, each with different advantages, and circumstances that would lead me to choose one over the other.
Recently I wrote a job to create and save datasets that are used for downstream work. The code is run through a scheduler that will spin u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/93n3WCkzB3HdNajjD/two-designs |
# Have an idea for an interactive learning module? Consider applying for a ClearerThinking.org micro grant!
If you have an idea for an interactive learning module (on topics such as rationality, psychology, self-improvement, statistics, probability, effective altruism, philosophy economics, math, science, behavior cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEzGJutAFFpjJXWmT/have-an-idea-for-an-interactive-learning-module-consider |
# Probability theory and logical induction as lenses
*This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
---
## Abstract
I frame probability theory as a lens for understanding the real-world phenom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zd5Bsra7ar2pa3bwS/probability-theory-and-logical-induction-as-lenses |
# The Fall of Rome: Why It's Relevant, And Why We're Mistaken
The standard view of the fall of the Roman Empire is horrifying and deeply troubling. A long time ago, there was a prosperous empire. They created advanced technology and complex philosophy. After existing for many centuries, violent barbarians invaded, end... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DuhFd5upZk5p7RoMX/the-fall-of-rome-why-it-s-relevant-and-why-we-re-mistaken |
# The Fall of Rome, II: Energy Problems?
What is the core reason for our current dramatic increase in prosperity (seen as the Industrial Revolution, since 1750/1800)? The usage of new energy sources like coal and oil, to replace the physical labor of humans and animals with machines that dramatically boost our product... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kkn6GrjTNNjSQBLPi/the-fall-of-rome-ii-energy-problems |
# How to Play a Support Role in Research Conversations
There’s a programming technique where you keep a rubber duck on your desk, and when you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kvLPC5YWgSujcHSkY/how-to-play-a-support-role-in-research-conversations |
# Let's Rename Ourselves The "Metacognitive Movement"
**Associations, Definitions, Prosody**
The name "rationality movement," or "rationalism," has several problems. It sounds [self-congratulatory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zsznamBgNuj3XX2DP/self-congratulatory-rationalism). It's the name of a [17th-century ant... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4E4zbHSmyuhkqgJmm/let-s-rename-ourselves-the-metacognitive-movement |
# Vaccination and House Rules
One of the effects of [living with others](https://www.jefftk.com/p/shared-house-setup) during a pandemic is that risks you take don't just affect yourself. While this is also true even if you live alone, you can't really negotiate with society at large over acceptable levels of risk. Whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s9tMdqEbwryCoqow9/vaccination-and-house-rules |
# Election results in Central Europe match some pre-WW1 borders
I have seen this image of Quora:
Polish presidential election, 2010
Election results are arguably one of the most apparent and easy to m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WREZReEiCbwJhvzvc/election-results-in-central-europe-match-some-pre-ww1 |
# Paper review: A Cryptographic Solution to a Game Theoretic Problem
*Crossposted from:* [*Equilibria Club*](https://equilibria.club/a-cryptographic-solutionto-a-game-theoretic-problem/)
It's time for a puzzle involving two fields: game theory and cryptography! Both fields model self-interested agents in a competitiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FjbwBbwzy9Cred6Gg/paper-review-a-cryptographic-solution-to-a-game-theoretic |
# Identity in What You Are Not
We often talk about identity as if it is what we are. Yet, strangely, most of the trappings of identity are things that are not, strictly speaking, us.
Some examples of ways people identify themselves:
* I'm a rock/punk/folk/etc. music fan
* I'm an artist/writer/musician/intellectu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onpj9XKwhmLTaukad/identity-in-what-you-are-not |
# Estimating COVID cases & deaths in India over the coming months
Does anyone have a good method to estimate the number of COVID cases India is likely to experience in the next couple of months? I realize this is a hard problem but any method I can use to put bounds on how good or how bad it could be would be helpful.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GPyjobcqnNqYjnqXy/estimating-covid-cases-and-deaths-in-india-over-the-coming |
# Best empirical evidence on better than SP500 investment returns?
I am not smart enough to be a real rationalist, and I am really lazy. But I am smart enough to understand and implement rationalist advice and I suspect y'all are a better source of advice than normal investors. What is the highest level of returns I c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FydkHzvfMqkfcWTcx/best-empirical-evidence-on-better-than-sp500-investment |
# The Fall of Rome, III: Progress Did Not Exist
The Malthusian Trap is a famous idea in regards to population pressure. Agricultural progress is linear, population growth is exponential. Inevitably, the population size exceeds the carrying capacity of its farmland. This results in starvation, disease and (civil) war, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4wEvv9fe8Zt6TpnPw/the-fall-of-rome-iii-progress-did-not-exist |
# For mRNA vaccines, is (short-term) efficacy really higher after the second dose?
For the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, efficacy is commonly reported as something high (like 95%) after two doses, and something lower (in the 50-80% range) after only one dose. However, I think there's good reason to doubt that this 50-8... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AtgZzk8pgonjcHYuW/for-mrna-vaccines-is-short-term-efficacy-really-higher-after |
# Would robots care about Meaning and Relating?
A few weeks ago, Vaniver gave a talk discussing meaning and meaningfulness. Vaniver had some particular thing he was trying to impart. I am not sure I got the thing he intended, but what I got was interesting. Here is my bad summary of some things I got from the talk, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uoArM8ftbJzmHoEfe/would-robots-care-about-meaning-and-relating |
# Beware over-use of the agent model
*This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Thank you to Shekinah Alegra for reviewing a draft of this essay.*
---
## Outline
* A short essay intended... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2QuAcx8XQw7rrXzGC/beware-over-use-of-the-agent-model |
# Spoiler-Free Reviews: Monster Slayers, Dream Quest and Loop Hero
Recently my love of card-based roguelikes caused me to check out these two games.
First, [Loop Hero](https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/loop-hero).
Loop Hero is a unique Tier 2 (Worth It) game that came out recently.
If you’re up for a unique retro-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WYPyyWpFb33gjkBbq/spoiler-free-reviews-monster-slayers-dream-quest-and-loop |
# FAQ: Advice for AI Alignment Researchers
To quote Andrew Critch:
> I get a lot of emails from folks with strong math backgrounds (mostly, PhD students in math at top schools) who are looking to transition to working on AI alignment / AI x-risk. There are now too many people “considering” transitioning into this fie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdwk5aHNjM53PZFKL/faq-advice-for-ai-alignment-researchers |
# [Linkpost] Treacherous turns in the wild
Mesa-optimizers potentially escape behavioral adversarial training by realizing they're being tested, gaming the test, then defecting when they're deployed. Luke Muelhauser recounts an example of such a treacherous turn in the wild.
Most relevant quote:
> As part of a proje... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NEa3puQB23FyiifnW/linkpost-treacherous-turns-in-the-wild |
# Announcing the Alignment Research Center
(Cross-post from [ai-alignment.com](https://ai-alignment.com/announcing-the-alignment-research-center-a9b07f77431b))
I’m now working full-time on the [Alignment Research Center](http://alignmentresearchcenter.org) (ARC), a new non-profit focused on intent alignment research.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ejHFgQihLG4L6WQf/announcing-the-alignment-research-center |
# Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
[Scott Alexander is out with his (late) 2021 predictions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDQ0NjYyMiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU2NTM4NDcsIl8iOiJORHJFVSIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTQ3OTE2MSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5NDgyNzYxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItODkx... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cpy23aBzx3hnjKbnt/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold |
# What topics are on Dath Ilan's civics exam?
[Dath Ilan](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvA4j8pGYG4xtaTkw/i-m-from-a-parallel-earth-with-much-higher-coordination-ama) is a parallel Earth on which human civilization has its act together, in ways that actual-Earth does not. Like actual-Earth, citizens of Dath Ilan som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DT4tGyopMnKwCxpwL/what-topics-are-on-dath-ilan-s-civics-exam |
# Agents Over Cartesian World Models
Thanks to Adam Shimi, Alex Turner, Noa Nabeshima, Neel Nanda, Sydney Von Arx, Jack Ryan, and Sidney Hough for helpful discussion and comments.
# Abstract
We analyze agents by supposing a Cartesian boundary between agent and environment. We extend partially-observable Markov deci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LBNjeGaJZw7QdybMw/agents-over-cartesian-world-models |
# Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices
[Scott Alexander has posted some predictions for 2021](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDQ0NjYyMiwicG9zdF9pZCI6MzU2NTM4NDcsIl8iOiJORHJFVSIsImlhdCI6MTYxOTQ3OTE2MSwiZXhwIjoxNjE5NDgyNzYxLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItODkxMjA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAmkpdmfDMCohXiBX/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-market-prices |
# Jaan Tallinn's 2020 Philanthropy Overview
to follow up my [philantropic pledge](/posts/ZMRCpfGD4iXs5Mi5Q/jaan-tallinn-s-philanthropic-pledge) from last year, i've updated my [philanthropy page](https://jaan.online/philanthropy/) with 2020 results.
TL;DR: i made $4.3MM worth of endpoint grants in 2020, mostly via SF... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/APkbWoZg3apFgKz3c/jaan-tallinn-s-2020-philanthropy-overview |
# Covid-19 in India: Why didn't it happen earlier?
When I look at the numbers of Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 deaths among G20 countries, India still has a relatively low number per capita. The arguments for why the current wave is particularly catastrophical in India (like population density or poverty) applied all th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GsLZZXZcRQnYTfPby/covid-19-in-india-why-didn-t-it-happen-earlier |
# Pitfalls of the agent model
*This is independent research. To make further posts like this possible, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
---
## Outline
* I study the agent model as a frame for understanding the phenomenon of entities that exert influence over the future.
*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8HWGXhnCfAPgJYa9D/pitfalls-of-the-agent-model |
# Rationality Cardinality
[Rationality Cardinality](https://www.rationalitycardinality.com) is a humorous card game, built out of rationality concepts and vocabulary and designed to teach them. I have recently finished an online-game implementation, which can be embedded into gather.town worlds. Try it out by joining ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mk4jxXj6QgvwcXJtF/rationality-cardinality-1 |
# Faerie Ring meet #2: At Gather.Town
This is the second meeting of a Faerie Ring, an instance of a copyable ritual for community. [Here's slightly more explanation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eNDB2F8CdktderNyR/faerie-rings) of the format.
* A group of up to 8 people
* A call once every 2 weeks, for 2-3 mont... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/4cLKYXvxKFgCHgeju/faerie-ring-meet-2-at-gather-town |
# A casual intro to Geometric Algebra
*(casual but not informal, prerequisites are trigonometry, vectors, and complex numbers, subject as digested by a non-expert in an unrelated field of science)*
Some background
---------------
### How I got interested in geometric algebra
One evening I stayed after class to spea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EtuqD2sXCR3AcgodK/a-casual-intro-to-geometric-algebra |
# Naming and pointer thickness
> Occam’s Razor is often phrased as “The simplest explanation that fits the facts.” Robert Heinlein replied that the simplest explanation is “The lady down the street is a witch; she did it.”
>
> − [Occam's Razor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f4txACqDWithRi7hs/occam-s-razor), Eliezer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y6fxStfPNiWujrwP9/naming-and-pointer-thickness |
# Better air is the easiest way not to die
> It’s hard to prioritize health advice. I’m told I should limit salt and eat cruciferous vegetables and do cardio and sleep well and limit alcohol and reduce stress and go for regular checkups. But how much do each of these matter? If you’re a fallible hairless ape, what sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cn5eJdnoA2wAqoLbh/better-air-is-the-easiest-way-not-to-die |
# When Should the Fire Alarm Go Off: A model for optimal thresholds
In this post I consider a model where there is a possible bad outcome, and the chance of it happening is related to something we can measure. We need to be able to set a threshold for these measurements, such that if a measurement exceeds a threshold ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5wHXuLPwhdKqH5GM/when-should-the-fire-alarm-go-off-a-model-for-optimal |
# Facebook is Simulacra Level 3, Andreessen is Level 4
A passage I just read in [The Hard Thing About Hard Things](https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Thing-About-Things-Building/dp/0062273205) by Ben Horowitz:
> **Andreessen vs Zuckerberg: How Big Should the Titles Be?**
>
> Should your company Vice President the top title... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/76qcHmxD8dxxRmrEd/facebook-is-simulacra-level-3-andreessen-is-level-4 |
# [AN #148]: Analyzing generalization across more axes than just accuracy or loss
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H79dxa7XXMBhwqZLm/an-148-analyzing-generalization-across-more-axes-than-just |
# Is sitting in the sun much better than sitting in the shade?
How much worse is sitting outside in the shade compared to the sun, for the purpose of experiencing enough lux to feel alert?
Making the difference between shade and sun a bit more extreme than it probably is in practice, we can take "sun" to mean "10,00... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsBi8ZwJvgu83cCys/is-sitting-in-the-sun-much-better-than-sitting-in-the-shade |
# AMA: Paul Christiano, alignment researcher
I'll be running an Ask Me Anything on this post from Friday (April 30) to Saturday (May 1).
If you want to ask something just post a top-level comment; I'll spend at least a day answering questions.
You can find some background about me [here](http://paulfchristiano.com). | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7qhtuQLCCvmwCPfXK/ama-paul-christiano-alignment-researcher |
# Notes on Robert McIntyre’s Brain Preservation Talk at the Long Now Foundation
*Update: I later ended up* *interviewing Robert**. *
*This is cross-posted from* [*my blog*](https://www.johncgreer.com/brain-preservation-talk-notes/) *and is written more for a general audience rather than LessWrong people who will ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N7j4xHkyjKbimmF6A/notes-on-robert-mcintyre-s-brain-preservation-talk-at-the-1 |
# Draft report on existential risk from power-seeking AI
I’ve written a draft report evaluating a version of the overall case for existential risk from misaligned AI, and taking an initial stab at quantifying the risk from this version of the threat. I’ve made the draft viewable as a public google doc [here](https://d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HduCjmXTBD4xYTegv/draft-report-on-existential-risk-from-power-seeking-ai |
# Covid 4/29: Vaccination Slowdown
Compared to expectations, excluding inevitable self-inflicted cratering of our vaccination rate, this was mostly a best realistic case scenario week. Johnson & Johnson was unpaused. India’s rate of case increases probably slowed down (they’re maxed out on testing capacity so it’s har... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/objuCrQbgBwfRPBFt/covid-4-29-vaccination-slowdown |
# 25 Min Talk on MetaEthical.AI with Questions from Stuart Armstrong
*Previous Posts*:
[Formal Metaethics and Metasemantics for AI Alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85vp2kgFZoycFqr5G/formal-metaethics-and-metasemantics-for-ai-alignment-1)
[New MetaEthical.AI Summary and Q&A at UC Berkeley](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oAJ7Pd2PiBHT2cQ3p/25-min-talk-on-metaethical-ai-with-questions-from-stuart |
# We need a career path for invention
If [technological progress has slowed down](https://rootsofprogress.org/technological-stagnation), what is causing it? Here is a hypothesis.
Broadly speaking, there are three domains of activity important to technological progress: science, invention, and business. Science discov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jdcjwjpeqyFZkk9M/we-need-a-career-path-for-invention |
# Scott Alexander 2021 predictions: calibration and updating exercise
Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions on SSC/ACX. This year, I avoided looking at his [blog post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) so I could make my own unanchored predictions about the same topics, using... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rQaDYb5bvfQouNfQW/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-calibration-and-updating |
# Where do LessWrong rationalists debate?
There are a few places where rationalists debate on internet outside of Less Wrong. Sometimes those places were created for debates that do not belong to the LW website, such as politics or investing. Sometimes they were created for a specific subgroup of rationalists, for exa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SafkCxnBereRF5GRX/where-do-lesswrong-rationalists-debate |
# Low-stakes alignment
Right now I’m working on finding a good objective to optimize with ML, rather than trying to make sure our models are robustly optimizing that objective. (This is roughly “[outer alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB/p/pL56xPoniLvtMDQ4J).”)
That’s pretty vague, and it’s ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TPan9sQFuPP6jgEJo/low-stakes-alignment |
# On silence
It has become common knowledge that some things—food, porn, outrage-share inducing articles—exploit a mismatch between our evolutionary heritage and the modern world, and do so at our expense. It seems, however, that we’ve collectively neglected one particular contemporary, omnipresent superstimulus: soun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/huwN8uu9rW7deCzan/on-silence |
# [Letter] Advice for High School #2
> [This](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHR64sZESzqn8vc37/letter-advice-for-high-school) is amazing. Thank you, so, so much. I'll start coding in Hy with [Vim](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ioGf4LHid42mCK3SK/vim). I'll start doing weekly blogs once my tennis season ends (three w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p59pJxyxJXqFsKADw/letter-advice-for-high-school-2 |
# Moral Privilege
Imagine, for a moment, living in a society in which toddlers routinely stab infants with knives, and adults routinely smash toddlers with rocks. You, naturally, are horrified by this state of affairs, and are thus flabbergasted when everybody suddenly notices that toddlers stabbing infants with kniv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fsS4tC8eTB8eALnSQ/moral-privilege |
# Mindfulness as debugging
*Are mindfulness practices just attempts to reverse-engineer our brain’s compression algorithms?*
I was recently thinking about one cool way we could conceptualize various mindfulness practices from a cognitive science and information theory perspective. Here I am referring to mindfulness p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GtMTskQyZvaLFbjXF/mindfulness-as-debugging |
# Review of "Why AI is Harder Than We Think"
["Why AI is Harder Than We Think"](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2104.12871.pdf) is a recent (April 26, 2021) arXiv preprint by [Melanie Mitchell](https://melaniemitchell.me/). While the author is a tenured professor with technical publications, they also have published multiple la... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FNqgoSg6cEKf5i6Bt/review-of-why-ai-is-harder-than-we-think |
# Your Dog is Even Smarter Than You Think
*Epistemic status: highly suggestive.*
*\[EDIT: Added more info on research methods. Addressed some common criticism. Added titles for video links and a few new vids. Prevented revolution with a military coup d'état\]*
A combination of surveys and bayesian estimates[^1] ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbqLuTgTCu365MNu9/your-dog-is-even-smarter-than-you-think |
# April 2021 Deep Dive: Transformers and GPT-3
Introduction
============
I know very little about a staggering number of topics that would be incredibly useful for my research and/or navigating the field. Part of the problem is the sheer number of choices -- I can't make myself study one thing very long because I alw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5CsGCRkHW5uAkidr/april-2021-deep-dive-transformers-and-gpt-3 |
# Death by Red Tape
***Contains spoilers for the worldbuilding of Vernor Vinge's "Zones of Thought" universe.***
*Based on* [*Eliezer's vision of the present from 1900*](https://www.reddit.com/r/WritingPrompts/comments/3xgqj6/wp_write_a_dystopian_vision_of_the_future_from/cy4zyfd/)*.*
* * *
In the *Zones of Thought... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8SCepKYXv9HTqZf9p/death-by-red-tape |
# Follow-up to Julia Wise on "Don’t Shoot The Dog"
Julia Wise recently wrote up [notes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cf2xxC3Yx9g6w7yXN/notes-from-don-t-shoot-the-dog) from "Don’t Shoot The Dog", a book by Karen Pryor about behavioral training methods:
> The book applies behavioral psychology to training animals an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d8jQzuqpJgAaBhmri/follow-up-to-julia-wise-on-don-t-shoot-the-dog |
# Car Seats Three Across
When I [posted](https://www.jefftk.com/p/car-thoughts) about how we were thinking of getting a car, and specifically that we were thinking of having three kids in car seats across the back of a hatchback, several people told me they wouldn't fit. This is a common enough view that there's an ec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmENycQg27pckyzB4/car-seats-three-across |
# [Linkpost] Teaching Paradox, Europa Univeralis IV, Part I: State of Play
> I particularly wanted to discuss Paradox’s games, as compared to other historically rooted games, because I think Paradox’s oeuvre is a particularly rich vein to mine. I have already heard from multiple college-level instructors that they hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3A2rwr6ERAwTmZbJq/linkpost-teaching-paradox-europa-univeralis-iv-part-i-state |
# [Weekly Event] Alignment Researcher Coffee Time (in Walled Garden)
I'm organizing a weekly one hour coffee time for alignment researchers to talk about their research and what they're interested about, every Monday starting tomorrow. The time (9pm CEST, see [here](https://everytimezone.com/s/0d39d311) for your timez... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Ps9easGbqdMP6win/weekly-event-alignment-researcher-coffee-time-in-walled |
# The Neuralink Monkey Demo
The Neuralink [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLt4d8cACHzrVvAz9gtaARA) channel (which is apparently a thing that exists) released a [demo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsCul1sp4hQ) of their technology using Pager, a nine year old [Macaque](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macaque... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pjuJ76cX5hYCkxHb8/the-neuralink-monkey-demo |
# Thoughts on Re-reading Brave New World
I recently re-read Aldous Huxley's masterpiece of dystopian fiction [*Brave New World*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brave_New_World) for the first time in at least a decade. Like any worthwhile piece in this genre, some predictions seem prescient (increase in [sexual freedom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9KhvKDpLtxwxMxZu/thoughts-on-re-reading-brave-new-world |
# There’s no such thing as a tree (phylogenetically)
[\[Crossposted from Eukaryote Writes Blog.\]](https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2021/05/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-tree/)
So you’ve heard about how fish aren’t a monophyletic group? You’ve heard about [carcinization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carcinisation), th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fRwdkop6tyhi3d22L/there-s-no-such-thing-as-a-tree-phylogenetically |
# Small and Vulnerable
Anyone who is dedicating the majority of their time or money to Effective Altruism needs to ask themselves why. Why not focus on enjoying life and spending your time doing what you love most? Here is my answer:
I have a twin sister but neither of us had many other friends growing up. From secon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbGEiSmNiTpPrFhcQ/small-and-vulnerable |
# Open and Welcome Thread - May 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKNJSiyzB5jDKFytn/open-and-welcome-thread-may-2021 |
# Maps of Maps, and Empty Expectations
\[cross-posted [here](https://metabstract.squarespace.com/blog/maps-of-maps-and-empty-expectations)\]
This post is a recap of some [naturalism studies](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9cbEPEuCa9E7uHMXT/catching-the-spark) I did a few months back. At the outset, I didn’t know whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jay95ejq4oMJ8kZiJ/maps-of-maps-and-empty-expectations |
# The Schelling Game (a.k.a. the Coordination Game)
Summary
=======
The **Schelling Game** (or Coordination Game) is a simple but fun party game that seems to have been independently invented several times. (One might even say it represents a Schelling point in game-space...) I have played it both with LessWrong meet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kM3Xd2mJeWtsGkgSW/the-schelling-game-a-k-a-the-coordination-game |
# Alzheimer's, Huntington's and Mitochondria Part 1: Turnover Rates
*Epistemic status: Big if true, I don't have much time now but I might try and write part of this up into a more formal scientific letter to a journal or something later. I am reasonably confident that my models here are significant in some way but I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3SKBmaR4YgFtEnX9g/alzheimer-s-huntington-s-and-mitochondria-part-1-turnover |
# Alzheimer's, Huntington's and Mitochondria Part 3: Predictions and Retrospective
*Epistemic status: Big if true, I don't have much time now but I might try and write part of this up into a more formal scientific letter to a journal or something later. I am reasonably confident in my models here but I do not have muc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dt2qFfiwTzmiYEL7h/alzheimer-s-huntington-s-and-mitochondria-part-3-predictions |
# Consistencies as (meta-)preferences
>Do I contradict myself?
>Very well then I contradict myself,
>(I am large, I contain multitudes.)
>Walt Whitman
It is good for our decision processes to be [time-consistent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting), [transitive, and independent](https://en.wikipedi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KptP3J2ThDTnriric/consistencies-as-meta-preferences |
# Bayeswatch 1: Jewish Space Laser
A black car departed from Ben Gurion Airport. The driver, Molly Miriam, handed a clipboard to Vi, who rode shotgun.
"Goldberg Aerospace. They built the solar sailer. They went from concept to manufacture in six months. No human engineering team could do that. They probably an have a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/idEyrgFF2THg86pxp/bayeswatch-1-jewish-space-laser |
# Why I Work on Ads
> *"I work on ads at Google"*
> *"Can I ask why? I honestly can't understand how anyone could."*
Someone recently [asked me](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26970115) why I work on ads, and I wanted to write up something more thorough than [my comment](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/abRn6C9QRD7aJbtyD/why-i-work-on-ads |
# Parsing Abram on Gradations of Inner Alignment Obstacles
*This is independent research. To make further posts like this possible, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: This is my highly imperfect understanding of a lot of detailed thinking by Abram, Evan, Joh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTm6aEvmepJEA5cuK/parsing-abram-on-gradations-of-inner-alignment-obstacles |
# Mundane solutions to exotic problems
I’m looking for alignment techniques that are [indefinitely scalable](https://ai-alignment.com/directions-and-desiderata-for-ai-control-b60fca0da8f4) and that [work in any situation we can dream up](https://ai-alignment.com/my-research-methodology-b94f2751cb2c). That means I spen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d5m3G3ov5phZu7FX3/mundane-solutions-to-exotic-problems |
# April 15, 2040
It's time to pay my taxes. In past years my AI assistant found clever ways to reduce my tax bill. I ask it, "What does my tax return look like this year?"
"Not good, I'm afraid. We may not be able to do any tax evasion this year."
"Why not?"
"The tax authority has determined that it can't keep up w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oNPucvRouwaXQtC9k/april-15-2040 |
# What do the reported levels of protection offered by various vaccines mean?
Pfizer is supposed to be "95% effective". Does this mean:
1\. There is a 95% reduction in your odds of getting COVID (as measured by the gold standard, which I believe is aserological test?)
2\. There is a 95% reduction in your odds of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f2D8FtKTtoZi2qsyu/what-do-the-reported-levels-of-protection-offered-by-various |
# What are the greatest near-future risks or dangers to you as an individual?
What factors do you expect have the highest likelihood of severely compromising your own quality and/or duration of life, within the next 1, 5, or 10 years? How do these risks change your behavior compared to how you expect you'd act if they... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/usiAXwLeQtx85BGBh/what-are-the-greatest-near-future-risks-or-dangers-to-you-as |
# Bayeswatch 2: Puppy Muffins
A green humvee arrived at Jieyang Chaoshan International Airport. Vi got in the back with Molly Miriam who handed her clipboard to Vi.
"健重制造公司. A no-name Chinese factory that makes barbells and similar equipment. It's not even fully-automated," read Vi.
"They are registered to use a low... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJkNPgEQPqbhqfwAh/bayeswatch-2-puppy-muffins |
# [link] If something seems unusually hard for you, see if you're missing a minor insight
***Related to*****:** [procedural knowledge gaps](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ka8eveZpT7hXLhRTM/procedural-knowledge-gaps), [trivial inconveniences](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/trivial-inconvenience), [errors vs. bugs](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6mwCxMtvprqxWwBR/link-if-something-seems-unusually-hard-for-you-see-if-you-re |
# Fractal Conversations vs Holistic Response
A kind of conversation which I very much enjoy is one where everyone has time to formulate long thoughtful responses, and most of the conversational points are remembered and addressed later.
For example, a long email thread between Alice and Bob, where Alice and Bob write... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Zhg5fJArpxa52cwf/fractal-conversations-vs-holistic-response |
# [AN #149]: The newsletter's editorial policy
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https://doc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yj9hW27sMJ4Hx4Bd4/an-149-the-newsletter-s-editorial-policy |
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