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# Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are based around the backpropagation algorithm. The backpropagation algorithm allows you to perform gradient descent on a network of neurons. When we feed training data through an ANNs, we use the backpropagation algorithm to t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZZENevaLzLLeC3zn/predictive-coding-has-been-unified-with-backpropagation |
# Forcing yourself to keep your identity small is self-harm
The title lays out my thesis in perhaps the maximally provocative way: if you put direct effort into keeping your identity small ([à la Graham](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html)), you are doing harm to yourself akin to the kind of harm you do to yourse... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NCcvzF3NqrWTxEFz/forcing-yourself-to-keep-your-identity-small-is-self-harm |
# What are all these children doing in my ponds?
(this is not criticism of effective altruism, only one analogy that's used as an argument)
Peter Singer writes in the [The Drowning Child and the Expanding Circle](https://www.utilitarian.net/singer/by/199704--.htm):
> To challenge my students to think about the ethic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5XDRYgNAzfzfqfr3h/what-are-all-these-children-doing-in-my-ponds |
# An exploration of exploitation bias
This is a map of Nassau Street, the northern edge of Princeton University.
It’s a very standard sort of street; I imagine one quite like it exists in most college towns. It has lots of great places to eat, sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAiot4tXNomsZJcjs/an-exploration-of-exploitation-bias |
# Tales from Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are fun, at least if you're making money. I've only been into them for a few months, but have already collected a bunch of interesting tales. Note: I may have been involved with some of these, but I'm telling these tales from a third person perspective.
One general p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXHcqrCpiHC5tDuEc/tales-from-prediction-markets |
# A Cruciverbalist’s Introduction to Bayesian reasoning
*Status: Hopefully a nice introduction to some of the basics of Bayesian reasoning for newcomers.*
> *Clue: Mathematical methods inspired by an eighteenth century minister (8)*
“Bayesian” is a word that has gained a lot of attention recently, though my experie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LuzekfX96Zgf2qMPJ/a-cruciverbalist-s-introduction-to-bayesian-reasoning |
# How do scaling laws work for fine-tuning?
The scaling laws, at least according to the interpretation [used in Ajeya's framework](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines?commentId=7d4q79ntst6ryaxWD) (and this seems to be basically endorsed by tons of people I respect on this mat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2j7mtf58Zr9XehjxP/how-do-scaling-laws-work-for-fine-tuning |
# About Me: Background and Biases
I've been a civil servant working in state government for almost ten years. I've worked at several regulatory agencies, I take lots of [civil service tests](https://www.cs.ny.gov/jobseeker/) to ([among other things](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nGExy2RtLi3YuitxC/about-me-backgro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nGExy2RtLi3YuitxC/about-me-background-and-biases |
# What do you think would be the best investment policy for a cryonics trust?
Assume this policy will be followed by someone else, potentially for centuries, unless your cryonics revival timeline is shorter.
You can answer differently for different trusts; notably:
1) Trust with the goal of maintaining a patient in s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHpyokkJQEZfyvtCr/what-do-you-think-would-be-the-best-investment-policy-for-a |
# The innocent gene
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/04/04/the-innocent-gene/). Content warning: violence, spoilers for King Lear)
> *“With this and that I tried to keep the bucket together,*
> *and then the bottom fell out.*
> *Where water does not collect,*
> *the moon doe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5cnAAoFaSfjhiFGtY/the-innocent-gene |
# Ranked Choice Voting is Arbitrarily Bad
_Cross posting from https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/02/ranked-bad/_
Recently, there's been headway in adopting Ranked-Choice Voting, [used by several states in the 2020 US Democratic presidential primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ranked-choice_voting_in_the_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iEWBhAJFbJXWhyXad/ranked-choice-voting-is-arbitrarily-bad |
# Historical Examples of Opposition to Technological Progress
This is a brief overview of historical examples of public opposition to technological progress.
**SOCIAL MOVEMENTS**
--------------------
### ***Luddites***
* Luddism was an English movement active between 1811-1816.
* “The Luddite movement emerged ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6aRANeq89z4n7Kxz4/historical-examples-of-opposition-to-technological-progress |
# Risk Budgets vs. Basic Decision Theory
I've been wondering about the decision theory of having a "risk profile", e.g. "200 microcovids per week", and at least under some simplistic but not unreasonable assumptions I don't think it makes sense.
Let's say we just have one activity A which yields some fixed positi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BBvcAPDM9u6bYMMqi/risk-budgets-vs-basic-decision-theory |
# I'm from a parallel Earth with much higher coordination: AMA
Related: [My April Fools Day Confession](https://yudkowsky.tumblr.com/post/81447230971/my-april-fools-day-confession); [*Inadequate Equilibria*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/oLGCcbnvabyibnG9d)
On April 1, Eliezer Yudkowsky ran a dath ilan AMA on Facebook:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gvA4j8pGYG4xtaTkw/i-m-from-a-parallel-earth-with-much-higher-coordination-ama |
# The Many Faces of Infra-Beliefs
$\newcommand{\la}{\lambda} \newcommand{\gam}{\gamma} \newcommand{\BF}{\Theta} \newcommand{\sdp}{\ltimes} \newcommand{\tok}{\overset{\mathrm{ik}}{\rightarrow}} \newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon} \newcommand{\copi}{e}$
The notion of "hypothesis" isn't formalized well enough enough to pin down... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GS5P7LLLbSSExb3Sk/the-many-faces-of-infra-beliefs |
# Our compressed perception
One of the most important and amazing feats that our brain learns to do in this complex world is to find compressed representations of the vast amounts data constantly streaming in through our various senses. As such, we may view many of the idiosyncrasies of our world-views and behaviors a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vkRpyPCBTx3jpeuzk/our-compressed-perception |
# Preventing overcharging by prosecutors
In criminal cases in the United States prosecutors often add a lot of charges for a defendant to have ammunition for coercing the defendant into a plea deal. This is toxic because the defendant doesn't know which of those charges are likely to hold up in court if the case would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6ixGWc2kK2zFzim2/preventing-overcharging-by-prosecutors |
# The Accord
In the middle of last year, I wrote a transhumanist sci fi novella inspired by (among other things) SSC's post about the Archipelago. It was quite intentionally written as a sci fi story drawing on Less Wrong discussions of AI, and it uses an idea I got from something EY wrote about AI merging their value... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Eu8r7sbhmCnznBC93/the-accord |
# There Is No Control System For COVID
# Introduction:
The [standard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology) model for explaining COVID transmission has a serious problem with the data. In the United States, despite seemingly large differences in policy and behavior, the difference in inf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6WefmeyaST7Puddz/there-is-no-control-system-for-covid |
# Monastery and Throne
Thinking about the impact of Rationalist writing after a small blog post made a big difference. [Cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/04/03/monastery-and-throne/).
* * *
Changing British Minds
----------------------
Even a year after the fact, it’s difficult to compile ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JxyKXgyqzovNDvnE/monastery-and-throne |
# Don't Sell Your Soul
[Cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/03/11/dont-sell-your-soul/).
* * *
You know the lockdown has dragged on for too long when people are selling their souls on Twitter.
Normally the soul-selling is of the NDA-for-a-six-figure-job kind, which is par for the course. But... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YtisDHHhpxEh4e7zr/don-t-sell-your-soul |
# Reflective Bayesianism
I've argued in [several](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh) [places](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJyY5QkQvNJpZLJRo/radical-probabilism-1) that traditional Bayesian reasoning is unable to properly handle embeddedness, logical uncertainty, and related issues.
However, in the lig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpvLqinp4FoigqvKy/reflective-bayesianism |
# Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis: Project Intro
The [natural abstraction hypothesis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nwgdq6kHke5LY692J/alignment-by-default#Unsupervised__Natural_Abstractions) says that
* Our physical world abstracts well: for most systems, the information relevant “far away” from the sy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy3BhHrGinZCp3LXE/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-intro |
# Curious Inquiry and Rigorous Training
*Epistemic status: personal opinion and theorizing, based on recent conversations and explorations of Anki and the use cases of flashcards for autodidacticism in STEM. Mainly of use to continue directing my own Curious Inquiry, and hoping others find it a valuable framework as w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDD6dbd2xXudJLxYd/curious-inquiry-and-rigorous-training |
# Vim
Vim is a terminal-based editor optimized for speed. Keys are hotkeys by default. Vim does not even use `Ctrl` for most of them. Maneuvering via hotkeys is so efficient mouse input is often disabled by default.
This guide focuses on the features I use most frequently. It has nothing about with native Vim windows... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ioGf4LHid42mCK3SK/vim |
# I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker
In my experience, the most tedious parts of every machine learning project is annotating training data for my model. It would be nice if I could play a videogame with a keylogger and then train a neural network to copy me. That way my computer could play videogames for me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/prcmGg9DfiZ9QovL3/i-trained-a-neural-network-to-play-helltaker |
# Alignment Newsletter Three Year Retrospective
It has now been just shy of three years since the first Alignment Newsletter was published. I figure it’s time for an update to the [one-year retrospective](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/3onCb5ph3ywLQZMX2/alignment-newsletter-one-year-retrospective), and another v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L7yHdqRiHKd3FhQ7B/alignment-newsletter-three-year-retrospective |
# If my previous research is wrong, what are my options ?
In 2007 I coauthored a scientific paper, which is essentially a method for food analysis. To be honest, we have noticed one sample behaving weirdly already at that time, but we rationalised it away and omitted the weird sample from the results. Still, just in c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gtro6ZJnLZKmczEvv/if-my-previous-research-is-wrong-what-are-my-options |
# Which counterfactuals should an AI follow?
*Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for her help with this post.*
In the past, I've talked about [counterfactual incentives](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67a8C6KsKn2NyW2Ry/counterfactual-control-incentives). In that, the agent was motivated to maximise not an actual reward, but t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j7kyt6sHEjukRND8B/which-counterfactuals-should-an-ai-follow |
# Another (outer) alignment failure story
Meta
----
This is a story where the alignment problem is somewhat harder than I expect, society handles AI more competently than I expect, and the outcome is worse than I expect. It also involves inner alignment turning out to be a surprisingly small problem. Maybe the story ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyNHoTWWAJ5eb99ji/another-outer-alignment-failure-story |
# Open and Welcome Thread - April 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HD2BPw7h3XqX6PNnc/open-and-welcome-thread-april-2021-1 |
# Notes on Perseverance
This post examines the virtues of **perseverance**, **persistence**, **resilience**, **grit**, **fortitude**, **tenacity**, ***sisu***, and others in that bailiwick. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than as me expressing my own o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wtzEWNPQaTBJsoEXK/notes-on-perseverance |
# Is there any plausible mechanisms for why taking an mRNA vaccine might be undesirable for a young healthy adult?
We haven't seen any problem in the short term, but is the probability of long term negative side effects (given it's a new technology) sufficiently unlikely for a young healthy person to take it?
Am part... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u5oowdDkKqEuCEBgk/is-there-any-plausible-mechanisms-for-why-taking-an-mrna |
# Solving the whole AGI control problem, version 0.0001
The bridge to AGI control. Not *quiiiiite* ready for rush-hour traffic… Mind the gaps!! [(image source)](https://www.tendersontime.com/blogdetails/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gfw7JMdKirxeSPiAk/solving-the-whole-agi-control-problem-version-0-0001 |
# The Japanese Quiz: a Thought Experiment of Statistical Epistemology
This post is an excerpt from [my book](https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.5466),
"Notes on a New Philosophy of Empirical Science".
I've found it hard to publish small pieces from the book,
because each concept is inextricably linked in my mind to all t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hWX2A7Afkbh7QCw4h/the-japanese-quiz-a-thought-experiment-of-statistical |
# If you don't design for extrapolation, you'll extrapolate poorly - possibly fatally
$\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}$
Given an AI $A$, let $\E$ be the set of typical environments in which we know its behaviour - or know something about its behaviour. A sort of general training environment, if you will.
Let $\E^+$ be t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4wa9XGnJHB3apPqoq/if-you-don-t-design-for-extrapolation-you-ll-extrapolate |
# A possible preference algorithm
I have [previously discussed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into) the [constructive](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y2LhX3925RodndwpC/resolving-human-values-completely-and-adequately) [process](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2SrzejmaxnwJBNkFE/a-possible-preference-algorithm |
# Homeostatic Bruce
Epistemic Status: Speculative. CW: trauma
*Humans are* [*Adaptation Executors, Not Fitness Maximizers*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XPErvb8m9FapXCjhA/adaptation-executers-not-fitness-maximizers)*.*
— some guy
**0 Summary**
Bruce is a weird guy, and I’m not the first to hypothesize that he s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kxFgXQrwfMWGWQ2Cr/homeostatic-bruce |
# Aging: A Surprisingly Tractable Problem
Aging kills more than twice as many people as all the other things that kill people combined, yet anti-aging research remains shockingly neglected. The scientific feasibility of anti-aging has been confirmed by many world-leading experts such as Professor David Sinclair from H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/ujt8MzsdZDaJXX7op/aging-a-surprisingly-tractable-problem |
# AXRP Episode 6 - Debate and Imitative Generalization with Beth Barnes
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ga8_okcLAes&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=6)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/behyPgMWFhXpKi73P/axrp-episode-6-debate-and-imitative-generalization-with-beth |
# Air Quality and Cognition
**Overview**
------------
Air pollution and concerns about its effects continue to rise globally. However, policymakers and environmental regulators have neglected the effects of air pollution on cognitive functioning. A growing body of research points to the risk of exposure to high level... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xLes6tbJFiQRitotx/air-quality-and-cognition |
# Highlights from The Autobiography of Andrew Carnegie
I’ve been reading [Andrew Carnegie’s autobiography](https://www.amazon.com/Autobiography-Andrew-Carnegie-Gospel-Classics-ebook/dp/B002G54Y3Q?tag=jasocraw-20), published late in his life, in the early 1900s. Here are some interesting themes and quotes. (Emphasis ad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4yDZgN7dvyzKEMYkg/highlights-from-the-autobiography-of-andrew-carnegie |
# Beliefs as emotional strategies
In “[Crony Beliefs](https://meltingasphalt.com/crony-beliefs/)”, Kevin Simler suggests the analogy of beliefs as employees in a company, who may be hired to carry out different tasks. “Meritorious” ones, he suggests, are in the business of accurately modeling the world, whereas “crony... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rgpAWJwuiFKq6Gbwy/beliefs-as-emotional-strategies |
# Covid 4/9: Another Vaccine Passport Objection
I’ve been travelling to New York City once again, and it’s been a busy week, including putting in bids on multiple different apartments. Developments are ongoing, so I’ve been even busier than usual and it’s likely some stuff has slipped through the cracks.
The overall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gt28KKEX9xjDYmoAL/covid-4-9-another-vaccine-passport-objection |
# Why unriggable *almost* implies uninfluenceable
When talking about learning processes, I've [said](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13654.pdf) [things](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpjjWDBXr88gzcYK2/learning-and-manipulating-learning) like "every uninfluenceable learning process is unriggable" and "every unriggable lea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k3J3sYgmjMmpkzbbc/why-unriggable-almost-implies-uninfluenceable |
# [AN #145]: Our three year anniversary!
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https://docs.goog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bER8yqrmHatrES9nR/an-145-our-three-year-anniversary |
# My Current Take on Counterfactuals
*\[Epistemic status: somewhat lower confidence based on the fact that I haven't worked out a detailed theory along the lines I've suggested, yet.\]*
I've felt like the problem of counterfactuals is "mostly settled" (modulo some math working out) for about a year, but I don't think... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXfka98pZXAmXiyDp/my-current-take-on-counterfactuals |
# Opinions on Interpretable Machine Learning and 70 Summaries of Recent Papers
**[Peter Hase](https://peterbhase.github.io/)**
UNC Chapel Hill
**[Owen Shen](https://owenshen24.github.io/)**
UC San Diego
With thanks to [Robert Kirk](https://robertkirk.github.io/) and [Mohit Bansal](https://www.cs.unc.edu/~mbansal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEPX7jgLMB8vR2qaK/opinions-on-interpretable-machine-learning-and-70-summaries |
# Identifiability Problem for Superrational Decision Theories
*Superrationality, and generalizations of it, must treat options differently depending on how they're named.*
Consider the penny correlation game: Both players decide independently on either head or tails. Then if they decided on the same thing, they each ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNGXKB8iExpcLvu55/identifiability-problem-for-superrational-decision-theories |
# Convict Conditioning Book Review
The Book:
----------
In 1979 Paul Wade was admitted into San Quentin State Prison, being locked up he discovered things lost to the outside world. Wade ended up despising most things preached about the industry from the outside, from the top level of media all the way down to to th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvf53bbgTM4uWFAuW/convict-conditioning-book-review |
# Sometimes, it can take a while to notice confusion
Epistemic status: Anecdote.
tl;dr: I had multiple opportunities to notice my confusion, but failed every time until I actually thought about it. Ended up testing positive for COVID, despite expectations.
### Background
I started preparing for the pandemic in Janu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WKzGhKbtJAXntXEdB/sometimes-it-can-take-a-while-to-notice-confusion |
# Forcing Yourself is Self Harm, or Don't Goodhart Yourself
*I recently wrote about how* [*forcing yourself to keep your identity small harms you*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NCcvzF3NqrWTxEFz/forcing-yourself-to-keep-your-identity-small-is-self-harm) *in the same way suppressing emotions is self harm. I got two ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ym7JR4TgXTyawZTgH/forcing-yourself-is-self-harm-or-don-t-goodhart-yourself |
# A Brief Review of Current and Near-Future Methods of Genetic Engineering
[Part 1: The Case for Human Genetic Engineering](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5FrpeM7L2kfhxycNQ/the-case-for-human-genetic-engineering-1)
[Part 2: The Case for Increasing Intelligence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6ZdDqx48aFNi49Pp/human... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X9Rk4rXSMnKfYLq5r/a-brief-review-of-current-and-near-future-methods-of-genetic |
# Recently I bought a new laptop
128 GB of hard drive space, I found, was not enough to contain both the build tools for every random programming language I might want to try out *and* every main series Paradox grand strategy game. So I decided to get a new laptop. Also the bottom half of my screen was completely obsc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3YnEoFcZCB7B5uShA/recently-i-bought-a-new-laptop |
# Specializing in Problems We Don't Understand
Most problems can be separated pretty cleanly into two categories: things we basically understand, and things we basically don’t understand. Some things we basically understand: building bridges and skyscrapers, treating and preventing infections, satellites and GPS, cars... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSZnj2YNMKGfsMbZA/specializing-in-problems-we-don-t-understand |
# Ben Goertzel's "Kinds of Minds"
I'd like to recommend Ben Goertzel's book from 2006 [*Hidden Pattern*](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zaq_-FCWpushbtxLvemSU97HS0klVyb0/view?usp=sharing), and particularly Chapter 2 ["Kinds of Minds"](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ISibMWTBuMZ4Qu1vG4BLlRuZCrEJkOso/view?usp=sharing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aet4oE5uEDPGZmGJ6/ben-goertzel-s-kinds-of-minds |
# People Will Listen
I have been thinking a lot about the [crypto autopsy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MajyZJrsf8fAywWgY/a-lesswrong-crypto-autopsy) Scott posted in 2018. In retrospect, there was still an enormous amount of money to be made 'buying the dip' in BTC/ETH. And there was even more money to be made buyi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnyRw87iPRg4ti8GP/people-will-listen |
# Bayes' theorem, plausible deniability, and smiley faces
> I believe they refer to that as a, smiley face. They're frequently used by idiots at the end of emails and text messages.
>
> − [Larry David, The Smiley Face](https://youtu.be/kMhXExzguWM?t=30)
I have a dilemma. I live in an era of text messaging, Slack, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u87dQgFhBmLiaKp5G/bayes-theorem-plausible-deniability-and-smiley-faces |
# "Taking your environment as object" vs "Being subject to your environment"
I think there's a key rationalist skill of being able to take your environment as object, rather than being subject to it.
There's a kind of wisdom people get when they leave environments. Today I talked to a friend of mine who has moved out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGxBbQNuahNrv7wxP/taking-your-environment-as-object-vs-being-subject-to-your |
# A New Center? [Politics] [Wishful Thinking]
Political polarization in the USA has been increasing for decades, and has become quite severe. This may have a variety of causes, but it seems highly probable that the internet has played a large role, by facilitating [the toxoplasma of rage](https://slatestarcodex.com/20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FHtA2uEBpecdRturb/a-new-center-politics-wishful-thinking |
# Post-COVID Integration Rituals
I'm writing this because I am realizing we're at the cusp of the end of a very long "retreat."
At MAPLE (Monastic Academy), we go on retreat once a month, and so we exit retreat once a month.
This can be quite a shock to the system, so we deliberately set aside a day for integratio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8hTuxqXTo8wQ8Ymuv/post-covid-integration-rituals |
# D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan
You were prepared for gratitude, a commendation from the Admiral, your own department, parades in your name. You were also prepared to hear that your ‘list of helpful suggestions for ensuring supply ships survive random encounters’ was an impudent insult to the collective... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S3LKfRtYxhjXyWHgN/d-and-d-sci-april-2021-voyages-of-the-gray-swan |
# How long would you wait to get Moderna/Pfizer vs J&J?
**My assessment:**
* People who can easily continue to guard against significant COVID risks for several weeks without much downside other than quality of life should wait several weeks for Pfizer or Moderna.
* (People who have to expose themselves to a non-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KMShMF7Wx8PqWch7Z/how-long-would-you-wait-to-get-moderna-pfizer-vs-j-and-j |
# Using Flashcards for Deliberate Practice
*Note: As in many of my recent posts, these ideas are new to me, and I'm just starting to test them out. This is part of a larger project of overhauling and refining my approach to scholarship. I'm excited to hear feedback and criticism. I anticipate this project will take ye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xzaAWFJ4CkLci2Qcr/using-flashcards-for-deliberate-practice |
# Wanting to Succeed on Every Metric Presented
There’s a tendency to want to score high on every metric you come across. When I first read Kegan’s [5 stages of adult development](https://metarationality.com/stem-fluidity-bridge), I wanted to be a stage 5 meta-rationalist! Reading the meditation book “The Mind Illumina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KeXgCayxbfjAHG8x9/wanting-to-succeed-on-every-metric-presented |
# The Case for Extreme Vaccine Effectiveness
*I owe tremendous acknowledgments to Kelsey Piper, Oliver Habryka, Greg Lewis, and Ben Shaya. This post is built on their arguments and feedback (though I may have misunderstood them).*
**Update, May 13**
I first wrote this post before investigating the impact of covid v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63BsSJm65Ke3cpffG/the-case-for-extreme-vaccine-effectiveness |
# What if AGI is near?
Consider the following observations:
* The [scaling hypothesis](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#scaling) is probably true: we will likely continue to see great improvements in AI capabilities as model sizes increase.
* Sutskever [mentioned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ControlProbl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FQqXxWHyZ5AaYiZvt/what-if-agi-is-near |
# Intermittent Distillations #2
# Servant of Many Masters: Shifting priorities in Pareto-optimal sequential decision-making (Andrew Critch and Stuart Russell)
[Servant of Many Masters: Shifting priorities in Pareto-optimal sequential decision-making](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.00363)
## Summary
A policy (over some... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rjrq6xPoavgC4JznB/intermittent-distillations-2 |
# Auctioning Off the Top Slot in Your Reading List
Or, A Nicer Way to Commodify Attention
------------------------------------------
**Observation 1:** I read/listen to a lot of public intellectuals--podcasters, authors, bloggers, and so on--and I frequently find myself thinking:
> Ugh, I hate it when this guy s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uA7rNDBBDo2yPNxw5/auctioning-off-the-top-slot-in-your-reading-list |
# Against "Context-Free Integrity"
Sometimes when I talk to people about how to be a strong rationalist, I get the impression they are making a specific error.
The error looks like this: they think that good thinking is good thinking irrespective of [environment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aGxBbQNuahNrv7wxP/taki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity |
# An Exercise in Rational Cooperation and Communication: Let's Play Hanabi
Why Play Hanabi?
================
Hanabi is a game requiring modeling others' minds, communication, and strategy. Its unique challenges and cooperative (rather than adversarial) objective have piqued the interest of [the AI community](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eFegYXqskuxKmfYmn/an-exercise-in-rational-cooperation-and-communication-let-s |
# What weird beliefs do you have?
We know that mainstream thinking gets a lot of things wrong. Many of us have experienced being mocked because of our concern for AI extinction-risk. There are plenty of other examples of times where now well-evidenced beliefs were seen as crazy in some way. This post was prompted by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oLoLqmWYXgTyyiuXM/what-weird-beliefs-do-you-have |
# [AN #146]: Plausible stories of how we might fail to avert an existential catastrophe
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world.
HIGHLIGHTS
==========
**[What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)](https://www.ali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwxBGFy59DYDk4ooe/an-146-plausible-stories-of-how-we-might-fail-to-avert-an |
# The consequentialist case for social conservatism, or “Against Cultural Superstimuli”
This essay was requested by the highly qualified rationalist and extremely-sex-positive [Paul Crowley](https://twitter.com/ciphergoth), who (like me) is frustrated by the absolute refusal of certain political groups to explain thei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wxe8xTL9f5yBBSej6/the-consequentialist-case-for-social-conservatism-or-against |
# Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places
When I write machine learning software, I tend to use the Place-Based Programming (PBP) paradigm. PBP caches your computations so you rarely have to perform the same computation twice.
The fundamental unit of data is a **place**, which refers to a location on disk. Consider... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s3Jdo8qyuaxMARffE/place-based-programming-part-1-places |
# The secret of Wikipedia's success
Why its reputation for unreliability is Wikipedia's greatest asset
------------------------------------------------------------------
Intro
=====
Wikipedia is everything the internet was supposed to be. Before social media became a battleground for foreign election meddling, corpo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M5PdzAH7Ck4FjuXwJ/the-secret-of-wikipedia-s-success |
# Placebo effect report: chiropractic adjustment
*Content warning: I accidentally got chiropractic treatment and felt better afterward, and I think talking too much about the placebo effect might be a mild cognitohazard, but less hazardous than not talking about it.*
This is a story about being treated by a medical p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7YZmB8HZ7tkj3Hqv6/placebo-effect-report-chiropractic-adjustment |
# Training the YouTube Algorithm
Listening to music and watching dance lessons on YouTube makes me happy. Everything else on YouTube makes me unhappy. It doesn't matter what the video is, [watching YouTube](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/koa48Qio5LP48xMM2/mediums-overpower-messages) makes me unhappy.
If all of YouTu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YNJnEixegRHpzqqQ4/training-the-youtube-algorithm |
# Hell is wasted on the evil
Chuck Palahniuk is an author like no other. Consider his second-most-popular book *Choke*.
> Victor Mancini, a medical-school dropout, is an antihero for our deranged times. Needing to pay elder care for his mother, Victor has devised an ingenious scam: he pretends to choke on pieces of f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3CxbpKnpN4BHrwoXn/hell-is-wasted-on-the-evil |
# Are there opportunities for small investors unavailable to big ones?
*Epistemic status: Not investment advice. Just pure speculation by a non-rich investor in index funds and EMH partisan, inexperienced in the details of financial markets, doing his best to fit a simple model to a complex problem and steelman the op... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zv4s9SLuGfZAGKQTn/are-there-opportunities-for-small-investors-unavailable-to |
# Covid 4/15: Are We Seriously Doing This Again
Yes we are. [It can happen here](https://dnyuz.com/2021/04/13/u-s-calls-for-pause-on-johnson-johnson-vaccine-after-clotting-cases/).
THIS IS LITERAL ONE IN A MILLION AND MUCH LESS THAN THE BASE RATE WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU DID YOU NOT SEE WHAT HAPPENED L... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EhkNxABhyHKoci8Ga/covid-4-15-are-we-seriously-doing-this-again |
# How & when to write a business plan
You’ve decided you need a business plan – so where do you start?
My [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgEHv3oq8q3hcssfF/write-a-business-plan-already) explained *why* you should write a plan – and what’s wrong with all your excuses for not doing so. Here I give tips... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6EKhDknBpEcpgKhc2/how-and-when-to-write-a-business-plan |
# Computing Natural Abstractions: Linear Approximation
*Background:* [*Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy3BhHrGinZCp3LXE/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-intro)
Given a world-model, direct computation of natural abstractions basically amounts to figuring ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6oWbqxEwktfPrKJw/computing-natural-abstractions-linear-approximation |
# Place-Based Programming - Part 2 - Functions
In Part 1, we defined a `place-of` macro and a `value-of` function. The code from Part 1, as originally written, was not an importable module. I have modified the code from Part 1 to be portable.
```
;; Module from Part 1
;; Save this code into a file called part1.hy and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YcJGevhGB9zY96kk8/place-based-programming-part-2-functions |
# Why has nuclear power been a flop?
To fully understand progress, we must contrast it with non-progress. Of particular interest are the technologies that have failed to live up to the promise they seemed to have decades ago. And few technologies have failed more to live up to a greater promise than nuclear power.
In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThvvCE2HsLohJYd7b/why-has-nuclear-power-been-a-flop |
# The Scout Mindset - read-along
I just started reading Julia Galef's new book "[The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't](https://www.amazon.com/Scout-Mindset-People-Things-Clearly-ebook/dp/B07L2HQ26K)". Here's a description:
> When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ggDKTaBtZDSdSdsxf/the-scout-mindset-read-along |
# Superrational Agents Kelly Bet Influence!
As a follow-up to the [Walled Garden discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gAM5AgcChwJLhuJkB/kelly-betting-discussion) about Kelly betting, Scott Garrabrant made some super-informal conjectures to me privately, involving the idea that some class of "nice" agents would ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7EupfLrZ63pbdyb9J/superrational-agents-kelly-bet-influence |
# Could degoogling be a practice run for something more important?
Andrew Critch's [recent threat model ends](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic) with the following:
> We humans eventually realize with collective certainty that the compa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M6ozR9CihyDNighnP/could-degoogling-be-a-practice-run-for-something-more |
# On Sleep Procrastination: Going To Bed At A Reasonable Hour
Who Would Find This Article Most Helpful
----------------------------------------
* Those who find **going to bed** at a reasonable hour a **major bottleneck** to getting enough sleep and maintaining a healthy sleep schedule
* Those interested in think... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuuafiWtxG6mMtmPa/on-sleep-procrastination-going-to-bed-at-a-reasonable-hour |
# Alex Flint on "A software engineer's perspective on logical induction"
This Sunday at noon PT, [Alex Flint](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/alexflint) will be giving a short talk on how he thinks about [Logical Induction](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/logical-induction) from a software engineer's perspective. He des... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PnA2JATMQ6FwYfRrR/alex-flint-on-a-software-engineer-s-perspective-on-logical |
# Networks of Meaning
> Nearly every piece of fiction that I have written has had at its heart an image of some simple object linking two previously separate clusters of images.[^1]
>
> – Gerald Murnane
> The more things an image is joined with, the more often it springs into life.
>
> Dem.: The more other images a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RDnmBxqfus69qtHSj/networks-of-meaning |
# Book review and policy discussion: diversity and complexity
*This is a linkpost for* [*equilibria.club*](https://equilibria.club/book-review-diversity-and-complexity/)
[Diversity and complexity - Scott E. Page.](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9696782-diversity-and-complexity)
Introduction
------------
It is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qumSpRdjjdzBGTqJE/book-review-and-policy-discussion-diversity-and-complexity |
# Rising rents and appropriate responses
I was recently involved in a discussion related to real estate and rising rents. A friend proposed this policy: "We should limit the extent to which the city can expand, and we should have rent caps so that the prices don't go up." I responded: "That means that purchase prices ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLaitbKRaJRxGyigA/rising-rents-and-appropriate-responses |
# Anger
I don't get angry. I haven't gotten angry in ten years. A Buddhist would say I have "pulled up anger by the roots".
Anger is predicated on the desire to hurt someone. The desire to hurt someone as a terminal value is pure evil.
I have been on the receiving end of a lot of anger. Ostensibly, it is because of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wGfswz45GsMysvGQM/anger |
# Updating the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis
*Epistemic status: not confident enough to bet against someone who’s likely to understand this stuff.*
The lottery ticket hypothesis of neural network learning (as [aptly described](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wFJqi75y9eW8mf8TR/does-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis-suggest-th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9p5KWNWcthccsxqm/updating-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis |
# Are there good classes (or just articles) on blog writing?
I've been writing [a blog](https://www.brendanlong.com/) for a long time, and I think the articles that actually get posted tend to be decent. Unfortunately, I have a lot of articles that never make it past the draft (or even outlining) stages. It seems like... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xtRWoLtCved77vqbg/are-there-good-classes-or-just-articles-on-blog-writing |
# Problems of evil
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/04/19/problems-of-evil/))
### **I.**
I wasn’t raised in a religious household, but I got interested in Buddhism at the end of high school, and in Christianity and a number of other traditions, early in college. Those were the da... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3dZgA3XgyCFpYZFW/problems-of-evil |
# Parameter count of ML systems through time?
[Pablo Villalobos](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/pvs) and I have been working to compile a rough dataset of parameter counts for some notable ML systems through history.
This is hardly the most important metric about the systems (other interesting metrics we would like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PjNesjrEoCMy3Buef/parameter-count-of-ml-systems-through-time |
# D&D.Sci April 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S3LKfRtYxhjXyWHgN/d-and-d-sci-april-2021-voyages-of-the-gray-swan) I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-and-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8KGivZgB8ixykBBGs/d-and-d-sci-april-2021-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# You Can Now Embed Flashcard Quizzes in Your LessWrong posts!
With the help of the LessWrong.com team, we've set up a way for you to embed flashcard quizzes directly in your LessWrong posts! This means that you can write flashcards for any of your LessWrong posts and either:
(a) quiz people as they read your articl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yK8mKmMQ73TuzgCv6/you-can-now-embed-flashcard-quizzes-in-your-lesswrong-posts |
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