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# Problems facing a correspondence theory of knowledge
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: These ideas are still being developed.*
---
## Outline
* I am interested in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YdxG2D3bvG5YsuHpG/problems-facing-a-correspondence-theory-of-knowledge |
# A.D&D.Sci May 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kmZjtuo4Gzv5WhTTX/a-d-and-d-sci-may-2021-interdimensional-monster-carcass) I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now so you know what I'm talking about here.
* * *
Ruleset... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcS8LjQqGRzM2krRc/a-d-and-d-sci-may-2021-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Questions are tools to help answerers optimize utility
*Epistemic & Scholarly Status: Fairly quickly written. I’m sure there’s better writing out there on the topic somewhere, but I haven’t found it so far. I have some confidence in the main point, but the terminology around it makes it difficult to be concrete.*
*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E6sX6LpmacjfYa6N7/questions-are-tools-to-help-answerers-optimize-utility |
# Books on Infant and Early Childhood Development?
Recently, a friend of mine recommended "BabySparks", an app providing a set of development milestones and targeted growth activities for babies and toddlers.
This *feels* like the sort of thing I should be able to pull from a few books, rather than a subscription-bas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SCdKzswjuo5RucndT/books-on-infant-and-early-childhood-development |
# We should probably buy ADA?
Edit 2022: It seems like better systems have come along, and a crypto winter has set in, and Taleb argues that BTC will eventually go to zero and I'm inclined to agree, platforms will keep improving, it may be a long time before any of them are good enough to stick as a standard, applicat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YsNtECdynPyYWYKN2/we-should-probably-buy-ada |
# Oracles, Informers, and Controllers
*Epistemic Status: I think the axes are straightforward enough. I'm not particularly sure about the names, happy to hear other sorts of suggestions.*
*Scholarly Status: Push/pull systems have been discussed before. I'm sure there's other naming for this sort of thing in the engin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kfY2JegjuzLewWyZd/oracles-informers-and-controllers |
# Starting a Rationalist Meetup during Lockdown
Authors: [fkarg][fkarg-lw] (my [blog][blog-fkarg]), [crtltab][crtltab-lw], [wilm][wilm-lw]
---
## Backstory and Intentions
In October 2020, `wilm` moved to Karlsruhe and was disappointed by the lack of a local LessWrong community. In order to change this, he reached ou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnqehbZDZhuut55TG/starting-a-rationalist-meetup-during-lockdown |
# Abstraction Talk
I gave a talk a couple weeks on abstraction. It moves very fast, but it covers more material in one place than any individual post I've written, and includes a few things which haven't showed up in posts yet (especially near the end).
[Slides are here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1sHzrxM... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aNngRKJCyLZEBTZhy/abstraction-talk |
# Knowledge is not just map/territory resemblance
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
This post is part of a sequence on [the accumula... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YLoXcquNkNdsteZYd/knowledge-is-not-just-map-territory-resemblance |
# Decoupling deliberation from competition
I view [intent alignment](https://ai-alignment.com/clarifying-ai-alignment-cec47cd69dd6) as one step towards a broader goal of decoupling deliberation from competition*.*
* **Deliberation**. Thinking about what we want, learning about the world, talking and learning from e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7jSvfeyh8ogu8GcE6/decoupling-deliberation-from-competition |
# The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening
*Epistemic status: may or may not make you a bajillion dollars. Tots not investment advice.*
These are my summary notes on John Pfeffer's [An Investor's Take on Cryptoassets](https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkbMkBEsyuzM7L2zH/the-btc-equilibriumating-and-the-eth-one-eightening-1 |
# MDP models are determined by the agent architecture and the environmental dynamics
[*Seeking Power is Often Robustly Instrumental in MDPs*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6DuJxY8X45Sco4bS2/seeking-power-is-often-robustly-instrumental-in-mdps) relates the structure of the agent's environment (the 'Markov decision pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XkXL96H6GknCbT5QH/mdp-models-are-determined-by-the-agent-architecture-and-the |
# The Practice & Virtue of Discernment
*Epistemic status: I think this definition might be useful, but it might also be too abstract, inelegant, or obvious.*
*Scholarship status: This is based mostly on background knowledge and some work in decision making. It touches topics in data science,* [*General Semantics*](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W2iwHXF9iBg4kmyq6/the-practice-and-virtue-of-discernment |
# [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050
The Cold War is over. Russia is a fading power. The most important geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century is between China and the USA. Any analysis of the conflict must take into account the possibility that it escalates into a hot war. This ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BY5f7iEzHtEDJLXS7/prediction-what-war-between-the-usa-and-china-would-look |
# Antifragility in Games of Chance, Research, and Debate
Nassim Taleb's concept of "antifragility" describes strategies in which a short-term cost, harm or failure enables a long-term gain. This might be because the short-term cost conveys information that allows you to improve future decision-making. Or maybe it prov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D4fB4zugW6YTJHKYS/antifragility-in-games-of-chance-research-and-debate |
# List of good AI safety project ideas?
Can we compile a list of good project ideas related to AI safety that people can work on? There are occasions at work when I have the opportunity to propose interesting project ideas for potential funding, and it would be really useful if there was somewhere I could look for pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/stdfRDMF3sFpSsGeG/list-of-good-ai-safety-project-ideas |
# Covid 5/27: The Final Countdown
(Personal note: My Facebook account was hacked. Attacker has not contacted me, and deleted my name from the profile. Since I am already [Against Facebook](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/04/22/against-facebook/) I do not view this as a great loss unless it leads to further trouble, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/92aXvTXxReBQZk2gx/covid-5-27-the-final-countdown |
# A Review and Summary of the Landmark Forum
(This post is from a long-time member of the rationalist community - I may or may not be an active poster on Less Wrong. I’ve messaged a moderator and asked if they would be willing to make a comment to confirm that this is the case.
Landmark has copyright on their course ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BrF3jGCHnNm9iCCxp/a-review-and-summary-of-the-landmark-forum |
# What's your visual experience when reading technical material?
In my never-ending quest to understand the best way to read a textbook, I'm back to where I started - exploring the importance of visual imagination. When you read technical material, such as science or math, or posts on rationality, to what degree do yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fuxW7vw4zfncsgfux/what-s-your-visual-experience-when-reading-technical |
# Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
*Cross posted from* [*the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hqkyaHLQhzuREcXSX/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons)
Key Points
==========
* Forecasting well is a valuable skil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bXBfccjkNkc4nhLdR/data-on-forecasting-accuracy-across-different-time-horizons |
# 99% shorter
I listen to podcasts while doing chores or at the gym, and often feel like I'm learning something but then can't really remember anything afterwards. So for the past ~month I've been doing an experiment where I write brief summaries of them afterwards, usually same-day but sometimes a bit later. Generall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQ5zzSt4eAaaubp5s/99-shorter |
# The Homunculus Problem
(This is not (quite) just a re-hashing of the homunculus fallacy.)
I'm contemplating what it would mean for [machine learning models such as GPT-3 to be honest with us](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3RsLTcxrvH4rXpBL/how-honest-is-gpt-3). Honesty involves conveying your subjective experienc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GBXKZujXSZe84aAL9/the-homunculus-problem |
# AXRP Episode 7.5 - Forecasting Transformative AI from Biological Anchors with Ajeya Cotra
_Audio unavailable for this episode._
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conversations with researchers about t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CuDYhLLXq6FuHvGZc/axrp-episode-7-5-forecasting-transformative-ai-from |
# Predict responses to the "existential risk from AI" survey
I sent a short survey to ~117 people working on long-term AI issues, asking about the level of existential risk from AI; 44 responded.
In ~6 days, I'm going to post the anonymized results. For now, I'm posting the methods section of my post so anyone intere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3LtDzDJc32TF6bJEY/predict-responses-to-the-existential-risk-from-ai-survey |
# Why Prefetch Is Broken
When coding a webpage, sometimes you know something is very likely to be needed, even if it's not needed yet. You can give the browser a hint:
<link rel=prefetch href=*url*>
The browser will take a note, and then when it doesn't have anything more important to do it might request `*url*`. La... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5GfC4i8tkwFumgbGF/why-prefetch-is-broken |
# (Trying To) Study Textbooks Effectively: A Year of Experimentation
When I started studying the art of studying, I wanted to understand the role of book learning. How do we best learn from a textbook, scientific article, or nonfiction book? What can a student of average intelligence do to stay on top of their homewor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/79dP94fEhGGcGmyDE/trying-to-study-textbooks-effectively-a-year-of |
# Curated conversations with brilliant rationalists
Since August 2020 I've been recording conversations with brilliant and insightful rationalists, effective altruists (and people adjacent to or otherwise connected somehow to those communities). If you're an avid reader of this site, I suspect you will recognize many ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fgYQjTktBmNZvMqce/curated-conversations-with-brilliant-rationalists |
# The blue-minimising robot and model splintering
A long time ago, Scott introduced the [blue-minimising robot](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQHuXuRGZxxWXaPgg/the-blue-minimizing-robot):
>Imagine a robot with a turret-mounted camera and laser. Each moment, it is programmed to move forward a certain distance and pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BeeirdrMXCPYZwgfj/the-blue-minimising-robot-and-model-splintering |
# Teaching ML to answer questions honestly instead of predicting human answers
(*Note: very much work in progress, unless you want to follow along with my research you'll probably want to wait for an improved/simplified/clarified algorithm*.)
In this post I consider the particular problem of models learning “predict ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqwZ7cwEA2cxFEAun/teaching-ml-to-answer-questions-honestly-instead-of |
# Is anyone else frustrated with 'un-informative' post titles?
The latest post that finally impelled me to ask this question:
- [A problem and three ideas - LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqwZ7cwEA2cxFEAun/a-problem-and-three-ideas)
This isn't specific to that post and, having noticed that it is a cross-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RWEqFHQ7vuHKzHGsr/is-anyone-else-frustrated-with-un-informative-post-titles |
# Wrist Update
It's been about a year now [since my wrists got really bad](https://www.jefftk.com/p/wrist-issues). Unfortunately, it's no longer limited to just my wrists: I'm having similar issues with my hands. Last time I wrote about how my doctor thought that this was likely due to ganglion cysts, but since then w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvjEKLnyGC6jusgpA/wrist-update |
# Two Definitions of Generalization
*Epistemic Status: Research notes, plus an appeal for the reader to give their best attempt.*
The words “abstraction” and “generalization” are often used fairly interchangeably. This is a pity. We only have so many well known words for abstract concepts.
One distinction I like is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vPHduFch5W6dqoMMe/two-definitions-of-generalization |
# How to Write Science Fiction and Fantasy - A Short Summary
I've been recently spending my free time writing fiction. In order to improve, I picked up [*How to Write Science Fiction and Fantasy*](https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Write-Science-Fiction-Fantasy/dp/158297103X#:~:text=utilize%20story%20elements%20that%20defin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZ9czc5CCX39wsviM/how-to-write-science-fiction-and-fantasy-a-short-summary |
# [Event] Weekly Alignment Research Coffee Time
Just like every Monday now, researchers in AI Alignment are invited for a coffee time, to talk about their research and what they're into.
Here is the [link](https://app.gather.town/app/aPVfK3G76UukgiHx/lesswrong-campus).
And here is the [everytimezone time](https://e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cysgh8zpmvt56f6Qw/event-weekly-alignment-research-coffee-time |
# What is the most effective way to donate to AGI XRisk mitigation?
There are now many organizations in field of Existential Risk from Artificial General Intelligence. I wonder which can make the most effective use of small donations.
My priority is on mathematical or engineering research aimed at XRisk from superhum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mn3zNeHhnNhngsFrR/what-is-the-most-effective-way-to-donate-to-agi-xrisk |
# Electric heat pumps (Mini-Splits) vs Natural gas boilers
I’m kinda out of the loop on this stuff, but it seems like suddenly out of nowhere everyone around me is converting natural gas heat into electric heat pumps—specifically a thing called a “mini-split” which can be both a heat pump in the winter and an air cond... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EckCtHxNtdP4jLw8L/electric-heat-pumps-mini-splits-vs-natural-gas-boilers |
# How counting neutrons explains nuclear waste
You probably recall from high school chemistry that atoms are made up of a nucleus containing protons and neutrons, surrounded by electrons. But how many of each?
If you remember a little bit more from high school chemistry, you’ll recall that the number of protons deter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AxtneAavpQYGeH2tF/how-counting-neutrons-explains-nuclear-waste |
# Why don't long running conversations happen on LessWrong?
Here is how things currently work:
- Someone writes a post.
- It lingers around the front page for a few days. During this time, conversations emerge in the comments section.
- After a few days, the post no longer persists on the front page and conversations ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jr5RrJaNxTdeBubni/why-don-t-long-running-conversations-happen-on-lesswrong |
# Introducing Rational Animations
[Crossposted to the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fDpvqSa6K3TjmxBr7/introducing-rational-animations)
Hello, everyone
---------------
In February, my girlfriend and I started [Rational Animations](https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations/videos), a YouTube c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yekoZcQQfuZYqk3Bj/introducing-rational-animations |
# Mega Links Post for Mar-Apr-May 2021
It’s been a few months since my [last links post](https://misinfounderload.substack.com/p/links-for-feb-2021-hello-world), so here’s three months worth of catch-up. (formatting works better on substack)
**Physics:**
[https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/physicist-creates-ai-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YtXfhqmzmscPDHoxW/mega-links-post-for-mar-apr-may-2021 |
# For Better Commenting, Take an Oath of Reply.
Thus spoke Maedhros and Maglor and Celegorm, Curufin and Caranthir, Amrod and Amras, princes of the Noldor; and many quailed to hear the dre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPDzdmxxxh5LSWQnh/for-better-commenting-take-an-oath-of-reply |
# TEAM: a dramatically improved form of therapy
**Note: The information provided below is not medical advice, and should not be treated as such. Please seek the advice of your physician with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition.**
I believe a new form of psychotherapy has been found that is signif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BLPjvGJHYkcM8Yzxy/team-a-dramatically-improved-form-of-therapy |
# Anatomy, diseases and aging damage
In this post I will talk about how I diagnosed a medical issue of a displaced muscle tendon in myself and solved it. I analyse how our medical ontology is currently ill-equipped to categorize the problem. I discuss the implications for thinking about human aging and why we need to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pFqss4wW5aomDJLL9/anatomy-diseases-and-aging-damage |
# Zen and Rationality: Continuous Practice
*This is post 7/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at continuous practice from a rationalist perspective.*
In Zen there is a focus on continuous practice ([*gyoji dok... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/erZvz3tJeGLvwBz5i/zen-and-rationality-continuous-practice |
# What is the Risk of Long Covid after Vaccination?
I received my 2nd shot of the Pfizer vaccine in the middle of April, but I still have some anxieties about some higher risk activities like indoor dining. Mostly, I'm worried about the possibility of long Covid.
[This article](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/25/heal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hefv3XGQ4kiXuWTqk/what-is-the-risk-of-long-covid-after-vaccination |
# Networks of Trust vs Markets
Markets are trust reducers. When functional, they make sure that you mainly need to trust one thing: that others will be self-interested. And since, as Adam Smith pointed out, you can trust even butchers and bakers to be self-interested – markets greatly increase the number of people you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rkm8tgEd5o8YdAPoQ/networks-of-trust-vs-markets |
# Russian x-risks newsletter spring 21
Despite vaccination with Russian Sputnik, I’ve got covid. It was relatively mild, but with elevated levels of D-dimer, which means higher risk of thrombosis. I am fine now.
Notwithstanding availability of vaccines, only 10 per cent of Russian population has vaccinated and the re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iJfCfG7sDSxsqzCjy/russian-x-risks-newsletter-spring-21 |
# Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
**Highlights**
--------------
* Misha Yagudin creates a [webpage](https://share.streamlit.io/yagudin/gjo-calibration/main/strmlt.py) to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell
* Hypermind experiments with new methods of eliciting, incentivizing and s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pbgx3GkmnAqerSpcb/forecasting-newsletter-may-2021 |
# Power dynamics as a blind spot or blurry spot in our collective world-modeling, especially around AI
Where I’m coming from
---------------------
*\*\*\*Epistemic status: personal experience\*\*\**
In a number of prior posts, and in [ARCHES](http://acritch.com/arches/), I’ve argued that more existential safety con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WjsyEBHgSstgfXTvm/power-dynamics-as-a-blind-spot-or-blurry-spot-in-our |
# If You Want to Find Truth You Need to Step Into Cringe
*This is the script of the Rational Animations video linked above, with a few minor edits and additions. I really like how the animations came out in this one, so if you are curious follow the link. If you only care about the arguments you can just read. Most of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nudApqTyL2bg5rENJ/if-you-want-to-find-truth-you-need-to-step-into-cringe |
# "Existential risk from AI" survey results
I sent a two-question survey to ~117 people working on long-term AI risk, asking about the level of existential risk from "humanity not doing enough technical AI safety research" and from "AI systems not doing/optimizing what the people deploying them wanted/intended".
44 p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvwSr5LsxyDeaPK5s/existential-risk-from-ai-survey-results |
# Selection Has A Quality Ceiling
Suppose we’re working on some delightfully Hard problem - genetically engineering a manticore, or terraforming Mars, or aligning random ML models. We need very top tier collaborators - people who are very good at a whole bunch of different things. The more they’re good at, and the bet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rrt7uPJ8r3sYuLrXo/selection-has-a-quality-ceiling |
# What question would you like to collaborate on?
In [Why don't long running conversations happen on LessWrong?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jr5RrJaNxTdeBubni/why-don-t-long-running-conversations-happen-on-lesswrong) adamzerner writes:
> Here is how things currently work:
>
> * Someone writes a post.
> * It... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqSMn6WEXPdDEvyyt/what-question-would-you-like-to-collaborate-on |
# Thoughts on the Alignment Implications of Scaling Language Models
\[Epistemic status: slightly rambly, mostly personal intuition and opinion that will probably be experimentally proven wrong within a year considering how fast stuff moves in this field\]
This post is also available on my [personal blog](https://leog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmxfgPGvaKqhttPM8/thoughts-on-the-alignment-implications-of-scaling-language |
# Attributions, Karma and better discoverability for wiki/tag features
LessWrong has an associated wiki, tightly integrated with the tagging system. Today, we have just shipped a set of new features to make the LessWrong wiki better:
**1\. Voting and karma for wiki edits**
You can now vote on wiki-edits on the tag-h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykJ25dPzpZjZgjezK/attributions-karma-and-better-discoverability-for-wiki-tag |
# Is there a way to test your personal COVID vaccine response? How do corticosteroids impact response?
Anyone have insight on (1) Whether there is a way to test how effective an immune response you had to the vaccine or (2) the extent to which inhaled glucocorticoids (specifically Symbicort) impact the effectiveness ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g4czkcto5XKGBE3FC/is-there-a-way-to-test-your-personal-covid-vaccine-response |
# Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence announces 1,75 trillion parameters model, Wu Dao 2.0
> BAAI researchers demonstrated Wu Dao's abilities to perform natural language processing, text generation, image recognition, and image generation tasks during the lab's annual conference on Tuesday. The model can not on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2dG7vXDZjd6crkdLa/beijing-academy-of-artificial-intelligence-announces-1-75 |
# Covid 6/3: No News is Good News
Infections and deaths continue to decline. There is no sign that the change in mask policy or anything else is going to blunt that, or that the control system is attempting to reassert itself. We’re winning.
If you’re reading for ‘news you can use’ there isn’t any beyond ‘news is go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5txdcsSBJApJyeueA/covid-6-3-no-news-is-good-news |
# Rogue AGI Embodies Valuable Intellectual Property
*This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views.*
Summary:
* Rogue AGI has access to its embodied IP.
* This IP will be worth a moderate fraction of the total valu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FM49gHBrs5GTx7wFf/rogue-agi-embodies-valuable-intellectual-property |
# Assessing Interest in Group Trip to Secure Panamanian Residency [Imminent Rules Change]
[I’ve previously outlined](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jHnFBHrwiNb5xvLBM/second-citizenships-residencies-and-or-temporary-relocation) many of the best options for securing a second residency, and [some reasons you may want to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEbe9o9GErpKgqTMc/assessing-interest-in-group-trip-to-secure-panamanian |
# An Intuitive Guide to Garrabrant Induction
This post is a high-level summary of the core insights and arguments in [Logical Induction](https://intelligence.org/files/LogicalInduction.pdf), a MIRI paper from 2016. It’s intended for people without much mathematical training. Numbers in [brackets] indicate the section ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y5GftLezdozEHdXkL/an-intuitive-guide-to-garrabrant-induction |
# Good Macro, Bad Micro
So this is a concept that I noticed while reviewing a preventative maintenance manual for the product I support at work. To give a little context, this is a manual that goes out to 500+ power plants around the world, to be used by operations and engineering teams to ensure proper functionality ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTrhNRH7oLucnXB2H/good-macro-bad-micro |
# The Alignment Forum should have more transparent membership standards
This is a public complaint about the Alignment Forum that I hope will improve the overall health of the AI Safety community as it exists there and elsewhere. This post is basically a short story about how I was refused membership by the AF mod tea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dsr9vvcLjyLZGuBnN/the-alignment-forum-should-have-more-transparent-membership |
# SIA is basically just Bayesian updating on existence
I love the [sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), but I think it leads people astray, by making them think that anthropic reasoning is about complicated situations with multiple duplicates. That leads to people saying err... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BYy62ib5tAkn9rsKn/sia-is-basically-just-bayesian-updating-on-existence |
# Finite Factored Sets: Introduction and Factorizations
*This is a longer, more mathematically dense introduction to "Finite Factored Sets." For a shorter introduction, see* [*my Topos talk/transcript*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N5Jm6Nj4HkNKySA5Z/finite-factored-sets)*.*
* * *
*Abstract:* We propose a new appr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sZa5LQg6rrWgMR4Jx/finite-factored-sets-introduction-and-factorizations |
# Alcohol, health, and the ruthless logic of the Asian flush
Say you're an evil scientist. One day at work you discover a protein that crosses the blood-brain barrier and causes crippling migraine headaches if someone's attention drifts while driving. Despite being evil, you're a loving parent with a kid learning to d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sMMvhAc83XFu873Eo/alcohol-health-and-the-ruthless-logic-of-the-asian-flush |
# Unattributed Good
Cross-posted from [10-year Horizon](https://dousek.substack.com/p/unattributed-good).
If a good deed is done and no one is around to see it, does it make a sound?
In 1939, Nicholas Winton found himself on a volunteer mission in pre-war Prague. Recognizing the darkening position of the Jews, h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A8iBwkMwba7zG2BmQ/unattributed-good |
# The underlying model of a morphism
$\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\oF}{\overline{\mathcal{F}}}\newcommand{\Q}{\mathcal{Q}}$
I've already talked about [generalised models](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nQxqSsHfexivsd6vB/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GRAWAqfgZEgtuCvje/the-underlying-model-of-a-morphism |
# Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism
**I.**
Here are some hypotheticals to consider, with a common theme. Note that in each case I’m asking what you *would* do, rather than what you *should* do.
* In the fall, COVID cases drop to 10% of their current level. You’re back to working/studying in person... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hoh6umyMWSqzPGMJZ/social-behavior-curves-equilibria-and-radicalism |
# The Nature of Counterfactuals
I'm finally beginning to feel that I have a clear idea of the true nature of counterfactuals. In this post I'll argue that counterfactuals are just intrinsicly a part of how we make sense of the world. However, it would be inaccurate to present them as purely a human invention as we wer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T4Mef9ZkL4WftQBqw/the-nature-of-counterfactuals |
# Hypothesis: lab mice have more active transposons then wild mice
As johnswentworth recounts in [Core Pathways of Aging](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ui6mDLdqXkaXiDMJ5/core-pathways-of-aging), as an organism ages active transposons within it's stem cells duplicate and that mechanism might lead to increased average... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JNTeqZfa4SpdsQfvd/hypothesis-lab-mice-have-more-active-transposons-then-wild |
# Rules for Epistemic Warfare?
In partisan contests of various forms, dishonesty, polarization, and groupthink are widespread. Political warfare creates societal collateral damage: it makes it harder for individuals to arrive at true beliefs on many subjects, because their social networks provide strong incentive to p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qAgotT3CuN7eCcKWA/rules-for-epistemic-warfare |
# Restoration of energy homeostasis by SIRT6 extends healthy lifespan
This is just a link post for an article that came out in Nature on May 28th. Open access.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23545-7
“ SIRT6 overexpression in C57BL mice led to a 27% and 15% extension in median lifespan, in males and femal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RCWHeYZPiipHip325/restoration-of-energy-homeostasis-by-sirt6-extends-healthy |
# Search-in-Territory vs Search-in-Map
Let’s split out two different types of optimization. The first type includes things like Google Maps’ pathfinder, a human making a plan, or Amazon’s logistical algorithms. The second type includes things like a thermostat, a heat-seeking missile, or water flowing downhill.
The d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s2KJWLAPyjtmQ9ze3/search-in-territory-vs-search-in-map |
# Open and Welcome Thread – June 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QTyMwaezwDiYoyAop/open-and-welcome-thread-june-2021 |
# The dumbest kid in the world (joke)
**"The dumbest kid in the world"**
> A young boy enters a barber shop and the barber whispers to his customer, “This is the dumbest kid in the world. Watch while I prove it to you.”
>
> The barber puts a dollar bill in one hand and two quarters in the other, then calls the boy o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxDvhqDKn5W3eubvA/the-dumbest-kid-in-the-world-joke |
# What to optimize for in life?
I listened to an interview with Patrick Collison were he claimed that when coding one should always optimize for speed - even when speed is not an issue. (Presumably because it leads to good coding practices, clean code, less build up of unnecessary functionality etc.)
Assuming tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZvMvmhqbvGfviaDX/what-to-optimize-for-in-life |
# Review of "Learning Normativity: A Research Agenda"
Introduction
============
We (Adam Shimi, Joe Collman & myself) are trying to emulate peer review feedback for Alignment Forum posts. This is the second review in the series. The [first’s introduction](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bAAtiG8og7CxH3cXG/review-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykvw6sMQD7JXK5cdJ/review-of-learning-normativity-a-research-agenda |
# Unrefined thoughts on some things rationalism is missing vs religions
Rationalism seems somewhat like a proto-religion to me. It has norms of behavior very different from society at large. It has apocalyptic prophecies which it's members strive to stave off. Still, what's missing? I think a few things:
- Rituals
- S... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pvcYY252XsndPZvnH/unrefined-thoughts-on-some-things-rationalism-is-missing-vs |
# What are good resources for gears models of joint health?
Painscience.com and Hargrove's "A Guide To Better Movement" are pretty good for a model of predictive processing and the roll of the nervous system in chronic pain and movement. I still don't feel like I have a good model of bone and joint health in general, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aa7ubCvgKj6SZnLeq/what-are-good-resources-for-gears-models-of-joint-health |
# Holidaying and purpose
I’m on holiday. A basic issue with holidays is that it feels more satisfying and meaningful to do purposeful things, but for a thing to actually serve a purpose, it often needs to pass a higher bar than a less purposeful thing does. In particular, you often have to finish a thing and do it wel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HiWyeghWPNARychz9/holidaying-and-purpose |
# Often, enemies really are innately evil.
**Part 1: What evil is:**
I'm not just talking about a "mere" clinical psychopath or sociopath who doesn't feel guilt and isn't restrained by social norms. First of all, people who don't feel the emotions can decide to be good anyway, or at least not pointlessly cruel for no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FstEqesM6o6shtwdf/often-enemies-really-are-innately-evil |
# We need a standard set of community advice for how to financially prepare for AGI
Earlier today I was reading [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnyRw87iPRg4ti8GP/people-will-listen) about the rationalist community's limited success betting on bitcoin and thinking about how the singularity is going to be th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EvyPaYZJ5sdrXeMwS/we-need-a-standard-set-of-community-advice-for-how-to |
# Five Whys
*This post appeared first on the* [*EA Coaching blog*](https://lynette-bye-6pd4.squarespace.com/blog/2021/5/24/five-whys?p)*.*
Five Whys is a technique I borrowed from [Lean methodology](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10127019-the-lean-startup) for getting to the root cause of a problem. As shown in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jqfANkNduyEQC9hvr/five-whys |
# Some AI Governance Research Ideas
Junior researchers are often wondering what they should work on. To potentially help, we asked people at the Centre for the Governance of AI for research ideas related to longtermist AI governance. The compiled ideas are developed to varying degrees, including not just questions, bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RBsTG5F2LqsMaqdzP/some-ai-governance-research-ideas |
# [Book Review] Blueprint for Revolution
*Blueprint for Revolution* is a manual for peaceful activists by Serbian revolutionary leader Srđa Popović. The first half is about how to take down an oppressive government. The second half is about how to establish a democracy in its place.
Violent revolutions may be good fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hCsCKqjgJPjuvPE5t/book-review-blueprint-for-revolution |
# Bayeswatch 6: Mechwarrior
"OUTBOARD PERSONNEL STAND UP!" came over the intercom.
Vi ignored the paratrooper commands from within her metal exoskeleton. She was just along for the ride.
"Your mission is to keep biological agents from escaping containment," said the voice of Response Manager Gizenga through Vi's hea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qBdgCEdr8jMLoKrDg/bayeswatch-6-mechwarrior |
# Speculations against GPT-n writing alignment papers
Some alignment proposals I have heard discussed involve getting GPT-n to write alignment papers, and using GPT-n as a transparency tool on itself. This is my speculations on ways it could go wrong.
One specific proposal I heard was getting GPT-n to convert its own... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wkhfytDQvfx3Jeie9/speculations-against-gpt-n-writing-alignment-papers |
# How hard is it to disguise my gait?
Gait recognition technology ( = identifying a person by the way they walk) is getting good, and I find this trend unnerving.
**Current context:** It's already deployed in China by a company called Watrix, [which claims](http://www.watrix.ai/en/gait-recognition/) 94% accuracy up ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K8Czmm9pCEJJzYiw6/how-hard-is-it-to-disguise-my-gait |
# Conservative Agency with Multiple Stakeholders
Here are the slides for a talk I just gave at CHAI's 2021 workshop. Thanks to Andrew Critch for prompting me to flesh out this idea.
The first part of my talk summarized my existing results on avoiding negative side effects by making the agent "act conservatively." The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gLfHp8XaWpfsmXyWZ/conservative-agency-with-multiple-stakeholders |
# Maximizing Yield on US Dollar Pegged Coins
### A Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Exercise
[Link to original post. ](https://jorgevelez.substack.com/p/maximizing-yield-on-us-dollar-pegged)
Over the last couple of months, I have been playing around Decentralized Finance (DeFi), a relatively novel application within the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KGDp7CkZDXLih5WKX/maximizing-yield-on-us-dollar-pegged-coins |
# Dangerous optimisation includes variance minimisation
Let's look again at Stuart Russell's quote:
>A system that is optimizing a function of n variables, where the objective depends on a subset of size k<n, will often set the remaining unconstrained variables to extreme values; if one of those unconstrained variabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nbvd4o9uDPe5whFxa/dangerous-optimisation-includes-variance-minimisation |
# Game-theoretic Alignment in terms of Attainable Utility
### Acknowledgements:
This article is a writeup of research conducted through the [SERI](https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/stanford-existential-risks-initiative/content/stanford-existential-risks-initiative) program under the mentorship of [Alex Turner](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/buaGz3aiqCotzjKie/game-theoretic-alignment-in-terms-of-attainable-utility |
# Against intelligence
Two years ago I wrote some pragmatic arguments that “human-like AI” is hard to develop and would be fairly useless. My focus was on the difficulty of defining a metric for evaluation and the cost-effectiveness of human brains.
But I think I failed to stress another fundamental point, which is t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tqgsSHduwfXWBGmzF/against-intelligence |
# Big picture of phasic dopamine
*(**Update Jan. 2023:** This article has important errors. I am leaving it as-is in case people want to see the historical trail of me gradually making progress. Most of the content here is revised and better-explained in my later post series* [*Intro to Brain-Like AGI Safety*](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrewt3rLFiKWrKuyZ/big-picture-of-phasic-dopamine |
# Supplement to "Big picture of phasic dopamine"
This is "Supplementary Information" to my post ["Big Picture of Phasic Dopamine"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrewt3rLFiKWrKuyZ/big-picture-of-phasic-dopamine).
It's a deeper dive into more specific differences between what I’m currently thinking, vs Randall O’Reil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BwaxYiJ3ZmXHLoZJ6/supplement-to-big-picture-of-phasic-dopamine |
#
The reverse Goodhart problem
There are two aspects to the [Goodhart problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbFABnst8LsidYs5Y/goodhart-taxonomy) which are often conflated. One is trivially true for all proxy-true utility pairs; but the other is not.
Following [this terminology](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EbF... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4RH5cMSBLZcv8DEw2/the-reverse-goodhart-problem |
# Will outlets like the NYT be captured by Chinese influence and if so, when?
John Cena apology for suggesting that Taiwan is a country by saying “Taiwan is the first country that can watch F9” illustrates how China has immense power over Hollywood. As China's influence growth in the world they will try to exert influ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msaChtM2r6WA8q2DM/will-outlets-like-the-nyt-be-captured-by-chinese-influence |
# The Generalized Product Rule
Imagine we have a company with investment projects A, B, C,....For instance, A might be a new high-speed Internet service, B might be a new advanced computer, C might be a new inventory management software, etc. We are interested in calculating the total return from these investments at ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zNiAzHwWtmHoddvEp/the-generalized-product-rule |
# What are the gears of gluten sensitivity?
I've been having some weird health issues somehow triggered after eating. I've been working with a nutritionist. They recommend, among other things, trying to eliminate gluten some of the time on the idea that gluten puts stress on the digestive system and can expose other i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uCNNacmvnxxH9tbJR/what-are-the-gears-of-gluten-sensitivity |
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