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# Survey on AI existential risk scenarios
_Cross-posted to the [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2tumunFmjBuXdfF2F/survey-on-ai-existential-risk-scenarios-1)_.
# Summary
* In August 2020, we conducted an online survey of prominent AI safety and governance researchers. You can see a copy of the su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WiXePTj7KeEycbiwK/survey-on-ai-existential-risk-scenarios |
# Evan Hubinger on Homogeneity in Takeoff Speeds, Learned Optimization and Interpretability
Below is the transcript of my chat with Evan Hubinger, interviewed in the context of [the inside view](https://anchor.fm/inside-view) a podcast about AI Alignment. The links below will redirect you to corresponding timestamps i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NFfZsWrzALPdw54NL/evan-hubinger-on-homogeneity-in-takeoff-speeds-learned |
# Should we vaccinate against PGBD5 which codes for a transposase?
[Core Pathways of Aging](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ui6mDLdqXkaXiDMJ5/core-pathways-of-aging) is background reading that explains why transposons are an issue.
There are two types of transposons. Class I TEs or [retrotransposons](https://en.wikip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Js95rcWGufPWjbECd/should-we-vaccinate-against-pgbd5-which-codes-for-a |
# AXRP Episode 8 - Assistance Games with Dylan Hadfield-Menell
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shaCQFlOGDQ&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=8)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fzFyCJ6gB9kBL9RqW/axrp-episode-8-assistance-games-with-dylan-hadfield-menell |
# Bad names make you open the box
Think of a function as a black box. It takes an input, and spits back out an output.
For `getPromotedPosts`, you can feed it a list of blog posts and it will spit back out the ones that have been promoted.
But I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NYaLudjSqsYtZDB2t/bad-names-make-you-open-the-box |
# Book review: "Feeling Great" by David Burns
I've never had any "real" mental health problems, but sometimes I feel stressed or guilty or whatever, like everyone, and who doesn’t want to feel more good more often? So a couple months ago I read *Feeling Great: The Revolutionary New Treatment for Depression and Anxiety... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jqTeghCJ2anMHPPjG/book-review-feeling-great-by-david-burns |
# How do you establish a comfort zone in your studies?
Learning a new topic takes you outside your intellectual comfort zone. Extrapolating from the [spacing effect](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3399982/#:~:text=The%20spacing%20effect%20refers%20to,study%20on%20the%20spacing%20effect).), the practice o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ixeStEMsNABQmkGQp/how-do-you-establish-a-comfort-zone-in-your-studies |
# A naive alignment strategy and optimism about generalization
(*Context: my* [*last post*](https://ai-alignment.com/a-problem-and-three-ideas-800b42a14f66) *was trying to patch a certain naive strategy for AI alignment, but I didn’t articulate clearly what the naive strategy is. I think it’s worth explaining the naiv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QvtHSsZLFCAHmzes7/a-naive-alignment-strategy-and-optimism-about-generalization |
# Knowledge is not just mutual information
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QLosiQsPJepZWtXG4/knowledge-is-not-just-mutual-information |
# Finite Factored Sets: Orthogonality and Time
The main way we'll be using [factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr) is as a foundation for talking about concepts like orthogonality and time. Finite factored sets will play a role that's analogous to that of directed acyclic graphs in Pearlian caus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yT7QdN2wEubR8exAH/finite-factored-sets-orthogonality-and-time |
# Changing my life in 2021, halfway through
This year I decided to really try and fix some major parts of my life I have been neglecting. I started in January and I think I have been making good progress. I will give links to the resources I think helped improve my life so you can look over them and implement them too... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gW9uZQPoMbMHStKEr/changing-my-life-in-2021-halfway-through |
# The Apprentice Experiment
About two months ago, someone asked me what I would do with more funding. Other than the obvious (i.e. generally improve my own quality-of-life in minor ways), my main answer was: take on an apprentice. I have some models about how best to train people for this sort of work, and an apprenti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MrAfiomDNWCzxjei5/the-apprentice-experiment |
# Reply to Nate Soares on Dolphins
> A similar definition of intelligence was expressed by Aquinas as "the ability to combine and separate"—the ability to see the difference between things that seem similar and to see the similarities between things which seem different.
>
> —A. R. Jensen
In a June 2021 Twitter threa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aJnaMv8pFQAfi9jBm/reply-to-nate-soares-on-dolphins |
# “Necessary Claims”: A technique to structure complex decisions
Life often turns out to be too complicated to fit into a human brain. If you’ve ever tried to choose from fifty flavors of ice cream, or to decide whether to buy a house, you know what I mean.
Humans tend to make complex decisions based on simplified mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yirJpBapoRojnuLyt/necessary-claims-a-technique-to-structure-complex-decisions |
# ML is now automating parts of chip R&D.
How big a deal is this?
[Article](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01515-9); [paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03544-w)
> ...the authors’ floorplan solutions have been incorporated into the chip designs for Google’s next-generation artificial-intel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9JTS67ChzK6HTyH9a/ml-is-now-automating-parts-of-chip-r-and-d-how-big-a-deal-is |
# Covid 6/10: Somebody Else’s Problem
Logistics note: This week’s post includes some non-time-sensitive items from last week, including much of the section on the lab leak hypothesis, as my available time last week was limited. Also, I’ll be in NYC from 6/11 until 6/16, so if you’d like to chat, let me know – I promis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEFfbEMFHhtgseKz3/covid-6-10-somebody-else-s-problem |
# What are the best ways to improve resiliency?
What are things you can do to make you more robust to "life shit" that happens? What have you tried and found to be pretty helpful?
To kick things off, here are a few things I've tried, which have helped to varying degrees:
* working fewer hours
* exercising
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eoB7gGKBghKnebshi/what-are-the-best-ways-to-improve-resiliency |
# Would you like me to debug your math?
At AI safety camp I noticed that people are bad at math and when I look over their shoulder as they code I notice nested for loops that could have been one matrix multiplication.
Therefore I'll try offering this service to the public: You screenshare as you do your daily tinker... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MHqwi8kzwaWD8wEQc/would-you-like-me-to-debug-your-math |
# Oh No My AI (Filk)
*To the tune of "Because I Got High" with apologies to Afroman.*
I was gonna save the world
when I built AI
I was gonna make everyone's life great
with my new AI
But I built it unaligned, I don't know why (hey hey)
oh no my AI
oh no my AI
oh no my AI
I made a really nice box
for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sxp8c2S9NCDC8u66L/oh-no-my-ai-filk |
# Alarms Are Better Than Chivvying
Lily recently told me that she wanted to be a big kid, and we talked about what that could mean. She decided she wanted to be fully responsible for getting ready and going to school in the morning. The biggest challenge was going to be timing: normally I walk her through the process,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eDvs8pNfmpeKtd5Rh/alarms-are-better-than-chivvying |
# Self-study ideas for micro-projects in "abstract" subjects?
Music and the arts, programming, and cooking have a wonderful property in common. They are all extremely compatible with micro-projects. By this, I mean that it's pretty easy for an artist, coder, or cook of any skill level to find a real-world, interesting... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bEaRtq8D6cWokzKzp/self-study-ideas-for-micro-projects-in-abstract-subjects |
# Overview of Rethink Priorities’ work on risks from nuclear weapons
*This post overviews [the work that Rethink Priorities has done and is doing on risks from nuclear weapons](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/KJNrGbt3JWcYeifLk), as well as the theory of change for this work. This is intended to help readers unde... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BmoTJnmGr3N5JzDbY/overview-of-rethink-priorities-work-on-risks-from-nuclear |
# Comment on the lab leak hypothesis
A friend of mine requested that I write up some of my comments on the lab leak hypothesis, since I had done quite a bit of research into this in 2020. This was originally asked in the context of the longform Facebook post that Eliezer wrote regarding the origins of the Covid-19 pan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cBJSwjk5FehJx4CNG/comment-on-the-lab-leak-hypothesis |
# Does anyone have any Data Sidequests?
I’ve spent the past few years thinking about how to create legible ML models, and the past few months applying those ideas. I now have [a library of public-domain scripts](https://github.com/H-B-P/DURKON) that let me feature-select, constrain, and fit a model which can then be d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XGztmaQPJa8WLdbbi/does-anyone-have-any-data-sidequests |
# Internal Memo from Bleggs Universal
**To:** Local Management Team; Regional Management Team
**From:** Jake Bleggslee
**Subject:** RE: Inventory Discrepancies
**Attachment:** [Rolling Shutter Distortion Examples](https://www.google.com/search?q=rolling+shutter+distortion)
----------
As you are all doubtless aw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cmidGgbxFxLrxh3nr/internal-memo-from-bleggs-universal |
# Why do patients in mental institutions get so little attention in the public discourse?
Scott writes in [My IRB nightmare](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/29/my-irb-nightmare/) about how his colleague took people freedom away and justified it with tests that aren't validated for the purpose of diagnosis and that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zb7WxBJCq6gHte7wA/why-do-patients-in-mental-institutions-get-so-little |
# A systematic error that lead to a bad policy response to COVID-19
Introduction
============
When it comes to dealing with adopting good COVID-19 policies, our civilization failed. This suggests low ability to respond well to another future crisis that might be an X-risk. While we made multiple classes of errors thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HdF8q6erwPDEmiQZX/a-systematic-error-that-lead-to-a-bad-policy-response-to |
# The Moon is Down; I have not heard the clock
I wanted to share a quick post about something that's made me significantly happier over the past year: knowing what the phase of the moon is on any given day. Importantly, I don't do this with any kind of computer tool. It's a proxy for "am I spending enough time outsi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7nAvPLfidGG54XquJ/the-moon-is-down-i-have-not-heard-the-clock |
# Covid vaccine safety: how correct are these allegations?
One month ago I [clumsily tried to persuade](https://dpiepgrass.medium.com/vaccine-risks-a-letter-to-my-father-d1419486e4f1) my 74-year-old father that Tucker Carlson is probably wrong about Covid vaccines killing 3000 people, and if not, my father should get ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NoRcK6j2cfxjwFcr/covid-vaccine-safety-how-correct-are-these-allegations |
# The Cult Deficit: Analysis and Speculation
(originally posted at [Secretum Secretorum](https://rogersbacon.substack.com/))
**Abstract**
Using a dataset derived from the long-running “Cults” podcast by Parcast, I find that the number of new cults began to increase in the 50s, peaked in the 70s/80s, and has been in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6E5meTmEiEQXqKmBt/the-cult-deficit-analysis-and-speculation |
# Experiments with a random clock
I may have found a solution to one of my biggest, longest-standing, most irredeemable problems. For most of my life, I have been consistently late. Whether it’s appointments, attending events, taking trains or joining a zoom call, I’m typically 10 minutes late for everything and it’s ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bxkAgvZypEfW66xgr/experiments-with-a-random-clock |
# Answering questions honestly given world-model mismatches
(*This post is superseded by our writeup on* [*Eliciting Latent Knowledge*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge)*.)*
In a [recent post](https://ai-alignment.com/a-problem-and-three-id... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SRJ5J9Tnyq7bySxbt/answering-questions-honestly-given-world-model-mismatches |
# Avoiding the instrumental policy by hiding information about humans
I've been thinking about situations where alignment fails because "predict what a human would say" (or more generally "game the loss function," what I call the instrumental policy) is easier to learn than "answer questions honestly" ([overview](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/roZvoF6tRH6xYtHMF/avoiding-the-instrumental-policy-by-hiding-information-about |
# What other problems would a successful AI safety algorithm solve?
Corporations and governments are in some ways like superintelligences, and [in others ways not](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5pUA3LsEaw&ab_channel=RobertMilesRobertMiles). Much of economics, political science, and sociology seem to tackle the prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AEYFaFtKEwKZ8gjB7/what-other-problems-would-a-successful-ai-safety-algorithm |
# Looking Deeper at Deconfusion
Introduction
============
My PhD thesis probably wins the prize of weirdest ever defended at my research lab. Not only was it a work of theory of distributed computing in a formal methods lab, but it didn’t even conform to what theory of distributed computing is supposed to look like. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Nz4PJgvLCpJd6YTA/looking-deeper-at-deconfusion |
# Shall we count the living or the dead?
This is a linkpost for an entry in my Substack newsletter at [https://countheliving.substack.com/p/shall-we-count-the-living-or-the](https://countheliving.substack.com/p/shall-we-count-the-living-or-the) . In this entry, we announce a new arXiv preprint, "Shall we count the liv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ezv54Spsojvmo8yKT/shall-we-count-the-living-or-the-dead |
# Precognition
It’s almost impossible to predict the future. But it’s also unnecessary, because *most people are living in the past*. All you have to do is see the present before everyone else does.
To be less pithy, but more clear: Most people are slow to notice and accept change. If you can just be faster than most... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yyDrMYBfvYtKbmPmm/precognition |
# Five Suggestions For Rationality Research and Development
1. Make field work the bulk of what you do. For every hour you spend engaging with other people's thoughts or reflecting on your own thoughts, spend at least two hours, and ideally two days, trying to directly observe whatever it is you're studying.
2. Add ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bRs5QZ4Ku6zk9WWLj/five-suggestions-for-rationality-research-and-development |
# The value of low-conscientiousness people on teams
*\[Apologies in advance if I sound like I'm over-generalizing high-conscientiousness or low-conscientiousness people. This is mostly from my own experience, so I'm sure I'm wrong on some counts and may, in fact, be over-generalizing at times. Ohh, and also apologie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wX9HZYiDMsPET6jxr/the-value-of-low-conscientiousness-people-on-teams |
# Which rationalists faced significant side-effects from COVID-19 vaccination?
While I want to believe the vaccines to be safe, Gendlin's litany tells me that it's more important that whether they actually are and the ability to change one's mind is a key feature of a rationalist. Another [thread](https://www.lesswron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XnRTP4dq3dkdwwtdS/which-rationalists-faced-significant-side-effects-from-covid |
# Coronavirus crash vs history
HOW has the coronavirus stock market crash compared with earlier ones? Is there a pattern?
A year ago I [looked at](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDCXgqQuWG8yx5H55/post-crash-market-efficiency-1696-2020) all previous US and UK meltdowns throughout history. Now we can include the 2020 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZMDtNJcgvgoCoScpi/coronavirus-crash-vs-history |
# Walking to School
Last week Lily (7y) decided she wanted to start walking to school by herself. It's not very far, she knows the way, and if anything happens she has pretty good common sense. The main problem is cars: while we've been practicing crossing the street, she's not good enough at it do it completely on he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xEFe5iA8KYktShBCt/walking-to-school |
# Are there any existing open source human evolution models?
It's famously said that "nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution". This suggest that evolutionary models provide a good way to gather knowledge about biology. If you expand the model to include memes that hunter gatheres pass around w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m8PapyHYCAbuW4oKp/are-there-any-existing-open-source-human-evolution-models |
# Avoid News, Part 2: What the Stock Market Taught Me about News
It\'s been a decade since I blogged about the benefits of [avoiding
news](http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2011/03/09/avoid-news/).
In that time I mostly followed the advice I gave. I kicked my addiction
to The Daily Show in late 2016 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvgBhkJZvnA6LBapt/avoid-news-part-2-what-the-stock-market-taught-me-about-news |
# (Another) Using a Memory Palace to Memorize a Textbook
Why do this? I was a year out of graduate school, but I could already feel my knowledge leaking away. This is a frustrating experience that will be familiar to any of you who've switched fields, if you are no longer working with your hard won knowledge/skills, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r57okKd4k9tDnLBwE/another-using-a-memory-palace-to-memorize-a-textbook |
# Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
# Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fcnFddKjKZdDXt5cp/knowledge-is-not-just-digital-abstraction-layers |
# Vignettes Workshop (AI Impacts)
AI Impacts is organizing an online gathering to write down how AI will go down! For more details, see [this announcement](https://aiimpacts.org/vignettes-workshop/), or read on.
**Plan**
--------
1\. Try to write plausible future histories of the world, focusing on AI-relevant featu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts |
# Escaping the Löbian Obstacle
Earlier this year, when looking for an inroad to AI safety, I learned about the Löbian Obstacle, which is a problem encountered by 'purely logical' agents when trying to reason about and trust one another. In the original paper of Yudkowsky and Herreshoff \[1\], they show that a conseque... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbNLvkGuGcmSFFpSE/escaping-the-loebian-obstacle |
# Unbundling Humans, or, Unbundling Human Creation.
“*There are two ways to make money in business: You can unbundle, or you can bundle*.” – Jim Barksdale, cofounder of Netscape
As frameworks for identifying opportunities in startupland go, unbundling / (re)bundling is amongst the most seminal ones out there.
Here ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfDJAuPSgkAaxYxbo/unbundling-humans-or-unbundling-human-creation |
# Open problem: how can we quantify player alignment in 2x2 normal-form games?
In my experience, [constant-sum games](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~hajiagha/474GT13/Lecture09102013.pdf) are considered to provide "maximally unaligned" incentives, and [common-payoff games](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~hajiagha/474GT13/Lecture0910201... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ghyw76DfRyiiMxo3t/open-problem-how-can-we-quantify-player-alignment-in-2x2 |
# Reward Is Not Enough
Three case studies
==================
1\. Incentive landscapes that can’t feasibly be induced by a reward function
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
**You’re a deity, tasked with designing a bird brain.** You want the bird to get good at singing, as j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/frApEhpyKQAcFvbXJ/reward-is-not-enough |
# Insufficient Values
I’m [Jose](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKNJSiyzB5jDKFytn/?commentId=uTZqYft4LJpCE36je). I realized recently I wasn’t taking existential risk seriously enough, and in April, a year after I first applied, I started running a MIRIx group in my college. I’ll write summaries of the sessions that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pd53Mip7Aa3TsdA7E/insufficient-values |
# AI-Based Code Generation Using GPT-J-6B
Above is a link to an interesting post about synthetic code generation with a transformer model trained on *The Pile*, which contains a large chuck of GitHub and StackOverflow. Due to *CommonCrawl*'s deficiency in this area, the much smaller GPT-J-6B outperforms OpenAI’s large... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hrMKnCKGjXFmWaqPx/ai-based-code-generation-using-gpt-j-6b |
# Announcing the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament
***Summary:*** *From June 22, Rethink Priorities and Metaculus will run a* [*Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament*](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament/) *to help inform funding, policy, research, and career decisions aimed at re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3M9uQSsCjkFp4gstF/announcing-the-nuclear-risk-forecasting-tournament |
# [AN #152]: How we’ve overestimated few-shot learning capabilities
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iCzGrppxQAJhRXhmD/an-152-how-we-ve-overestimated-few-shot-learning |
# Variables Don't Represent The Physical World (And That's OK)
Suppose I’m a fish farmer, running an experiment with a new type of feed for my fish. In one particular tank, I have 100 fish, and I measure the weight of each fish. I model the weight of each fish as an independent draw from the same distribution, and I w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QaxMwZfMpMYGDeGvX/variables-don-t-represent-the-physical-world-and-that-s-ok |
# Taboo "Outside View"
> No one has ever seen an AGI takeoff, so any attempt to understand it must use these outside view considerations.
—\[Redacted for privacy\]
> What? That’s exactly backwards. If we had lots of experience with past AGI takeoffs, using the outside view to predict the next one would be a lot more... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BcYfsi7vmhDvzQGiF/taboo-outside-view |
# How to make errands fun
Despite being a believer in outsourcing all tasks that cost less than my [aspirational hourly rate](https://nav.al/hourly-rate), I regularly have to do such tasks when they're impractical to outsource. This is almost always, as the most outsourceable tasks are those that repeat often, but can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ba7JnAFbEmRaXRoTw/how-to-make-errands-fun |
# The Apprentice Thread
A while back, LessWrong poster Aysajan [put up a post asking to be someone’s apprentice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BADqDafCFvFXpQFvE/personal-advice-request-can-i-be-your-apprentice). He talked about it with [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth), who I recently ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/scNCmwaduCgJmCBYh/the-apprentice-thread |
# Who wants to run a B2B SaaS startup?
A friend of mine has been bootstrapping a business-to-business software-as-a-service startup that's seeing serious growth. It needs someone who can put dedicated effort into scaling it, but my friend is near the end of their career and looking to retire. What do people do in this... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mbhWgerWtbpdQdxje/who-wants-to-run-a-b2b-saas-startup |
# The aducanumab approval
> As the world knows, the FDA approved Biogen’s anti-amyloid antibody today, surely the first marketed drug whose Phase III trial was stopped for futility. I think this is one of the worst FDA decisions I have ever seen, because – like the advisory committee that reviewed the application, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fynZ7phKdKG7L2pgc/the-aducanumab-approval |
# Covid 6/17: One Last Scare
The [one last scare](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvbDF-dGyf0), from America’s perspective, is the Delta variant. If we can remain stable or improving once Delta takes over, then barring another even more infectious variant, we’ve won. If and where we can’t do that, it’s not over.
Tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JpBF7Gqw6BzGzxuRb/covid-6-17-one-last-scare |
# Pros and cons of working on near-term technical AI safety and assurance
*Cross-posted from the EA Forum:* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ry4C4CKZvuRG7ztxY/pros-and-cons-of-working-on-near-term-technical-ai-safety*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ry4C4CKZvuRG7ztxY/pros-and-cons-of-working-on-n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBLs3GefMdtWe6iSk/pros-and-cons-of-working-on-near-term-technical-ai-safety |
# You can now apply to EA Funds anytime! (LTFF & EAIF only)
The [Long-Term Future Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future) (LTFF) and the [EA Infrastructure Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community) (EAIF) are looking for grant applications:
* **You can now apply for a grant a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eTxbmpctcyDHWFve7/you-can-now-apply-to-ea-funds-anytime-ltff-and-eaif-only |
# Fauci’s Emails and the Lab Leak Hypothesis
Introduction
------------
When trying to understand why the emails of Fauci might or might not be a big deal, most of the online sources I found look at individual emails while individual emails alone are not enough to understand what’s happening. After watching a [video](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQLXNjMKXdXXdK8kL/fauci-s-emails-and-the-lab-leak-hypothesis |
# Non-poisonous cake: anthropic updates are normal
I am on a quest to show that [anthropics probability are normal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BYy62ib5tAkn9rsKn/sia-is-basically-just-bayesian-updating-on-existence), at least in the absence of exact duplicates.
So consider this simple example: a coin is tossed. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kwwDieE9SmFoXz9F/non-poisonous-cake-anthropic-updates-are-normal |
# Are bread crusts healthier?
When you think about it for a second, almost definitely not. They're exactly the same stuff as bread, just more burnt, and so more likely to have the nutritious stuff broken down, and contain carcinogens. Indeed a quick internet search "busts the myth" that crusts are healthier.
So when ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SNDEtFuq56ontDxzv/are-bread-crusts-healthier |
# Assume long serving politicians are rationally maximizing their careers
Imagine you had no idea how to ride a bull, and you encountered a bull rider. The rider is swinging his free arm and body wildly, at apparent random. Surely hugging the bulls back and moving less is better. You would immediately think the man is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sGLHgv9q9uYAgXCGb/assume-long-serving-politicians-are-rationally-maximizing |
# Notes on War: Grand Strategy
First things first: I am not any sort of military expert. But most discussions or portrayals of war which I see among rationalists make me face-palm, especially discussions around the role of AI in future warfare or AI “takeover”. Seriously, guys, it’s not about autonomous drone swarms.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3rhs5vQK9tnGumPCf/notes-on-war-grand-strategy |
# Knowledge is not just precipitation of action
# Knowledge is not just precipitation of action
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JMpERTz9TcnMfEapF/knowledge-is-not-just-precipitation-of-action |
# Why did no LessWrong discourse on gain of function research develop in 2013/2014?
While I wasn't at 80% of a lab leak when Eliezer asseted it a [month ago](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159653334879228?__cft__[0]=AZWPer58c5bHvoZdDYZaBmccmDblXHGqf88oJrB_q5sh5_cU9dUY-8aD9gXKV-R5BhgC5cIE1OsBLIeUp2ni7XwjaYB... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zj5qj53FFh4CTcFj3/why-did-no-lesswrong-discourse-on-gain-of-function-research |
# Up-to-date advice about what to do upon getting COVID?
LessWrong has hosted a [few](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F3q7eL7pdQqhWFTYh/what-should-we-do-once-infected-with-covid-19) [posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B9qzPZDcPwnX6uEpe/coronavirus-justified-practical-advice-summary) [that](https://www.lesswrong.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zd9fHQLfJeEixGC5B/up-to-date-advice-about-what-to-do-upon-getting-covid |
# Parameter counts in Machine Learning
**In short:** we have compiled information about the date of development and trainable parameter counts of n=139 machine learning systems between 1952 and 2021. This is, as far as we know, the biggest public dataset of its kind. You can access our dataset [here](https://docs.goog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GzoWcYibWYwJva8aL/parameter-counts-in-machine-learning |
# Visualizing in 5 dimensions
Here's a tool for visualizing some 5 dimensional things. Poetically, the idea is to fold multiple "time dimensions" into the one actual time dimension using a sort of lexicographic ordering. More literally, we play a short 3d movie (each instant is a 3d scene) over and over, varying somet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xvv22uumaccq7YccD/visualizing-in-5-dimensions |
# 10 Deadly Viruses And Bacteria Created In Labs - 6 SARS 2.0
The post is written in January 23, 2019 about 10 Deadly Viruses created in labs:
> 6 SARS 2.0
> ----------
>
> [Severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://listverse.com/2016/06/29/10-people-who-were-the-patient-zero-of-a-deadly-epidemic/) (SARS) is a leth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9s5qSKskYMnLR8Mu5/10-deadly-viruses-and-bacteria-created-in-labs-6-sars-2-0 |
# Maybe Antivirals aren’t a Useful Priority for Pandemics?
**PLEASE KEEP COMMENTS GENERALLY ON THE TOPIC OF ANTIVIRALS.**
Epistemic status: Building a better gears-level understanding of why antivirals don’t work very well, explaining why portfolio construction for technology isn’t the same as investing in market... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQzqCegzAHGdhtuT3/maybe-antivirals-aren-t-a-useful-priority-for-pandemics |
# Arguments against constructivism (in education)?
Seems to me that constructivist education is already "in the water supply" of Less Wrong. My tweet-length definition of [constructivism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructivism_(philosophy_of_education)) would be "teaching students so that they *construct* mental... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d4FmQLqCeZN7GwD2A/arguments-against-constructivism-in-education |
# Irrational Modesty
At an online meetup I attended, I talked to a fellow who was working on some software that he thought would be useful for aggregating information for Effective Altruists. He said he would like to work on it full time this summer rather than get an internship - but that this was not financially fea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mwGAyWmsSqzMz4WMd/irrational-modesty |
# Why did the UK switch to a 12 week dosing schedule for COVID-19 vaccines?
On December 30, 2020 Boris Johnson gave a [speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-30-december-2020) in which he announced that the UK would follow a COVID-19 vaccination dosing schedule... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/29asg8Fzm4KX3aCFu/why-did-the-uk-switch-to-a-12-week-dosing-schedule-for-covid |
# Hammertime Final Exam: Pledges, Activation Energy and Evaluating Productivity
This is my [Hammertime Final Exam](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q7MsMshzbzhEs729s/hammertime-final-exam).
Instrumental Rationality Technique: Pledges
-------------------------------------------
Pledges is a technique for setting deadl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ncygdXCtm6ABqDasr/hammertime-final-exam-pledges-activation-energy-and |
# Four Components of Audacity
For a long time I've wondered how to measure nonconformity. To measure nonconformity I needed to define "nonconformity". But no matter how I defined "nonconformity" my definitions felt so subjective they could apply to anybody, from a certain point of view. If everybody is nonconformist ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CwjmX4daoYde3zD4R/four-components-of-audacity |
# Reinforcing Habits
*Epistemic status: hypothesis based on >10 anecdotal examples *
Every month or so, I’ll get a client asking why their attempts to start a habit failed. They want to have an automatic action requiring minimal willpower. The client is usually familiar with at least one habit-building model. Most co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLzXMDeEAaRtExo5L/reinforcing-habits |
# Self-Responsibility
Note: This is meant to be legible to high school students who are not LessWrong regulars.
>If you'd asked me in high school what the difference was between high school kids and adults, I'd have said it was that adults had to earn a living. Wrong. It's that adults take responsibility for themselve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8yrktnkJraChjp7xY/self-responsibility |
# Idea: Give the Nobel peace prize to institution designers
The Nobel committee has a problem. They keep giving the peace prize to people to war criminals.
In their most recent debacle, they have the 2019 prize to Abey Ahmed of Ethiopia for making peace with Eritrea. It seemed sensible, a popular young presidents bur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAGj5AmdjMkxm2St6/idea-give-the-nobel-peace-prize-to-institution-designers |
# To the Robobassinet and Progress
Most parents of small babies, if they could, would be happy to have someone gently cuddle, shush, and rock their baby back to sleep when they needed settling at night. Babies can't comfortably soothe themselves to sleep yet, but taking care of them is exhausting work.
Wealthy people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szxFiBv9FAaAyauna/to-the-robobassinet-and-progress |
# An animated introduction to longtermism (feat. Robert Miles)
[EA Forum cross-post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tuBJZ6RKq2Yjufhbc/an-animated-introduction-to-longtermism-feat-robert-miles)
*This article is the script of the YT video linked above. It is an animated introduction to the idea of longte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMJiBNcyRtuNviwvS/an-animated-introduction-to-longtermism-feat-robert-miles |
# On the limits of idealized values
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/06/21/on-the-limits-of-idealized-values/))
On a popular view about meta-ethics, what you should value is determined by what an idealized version of you would value. Call this view “idealizing subjectivism.”
Ide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FSmPtu7foXwNYpWiB/on-the-limits-of-idealized-values |
# I’m no longer sure that I buy dutch book arguments and this makes me skeptical of the "utility function" abstraction
\[Epistemic status: half-baked, elucidating an intuition. Possibly what I’m saying here is just wrong, and someone will helpfully explain why.\]
Thesis: I now think that utility functions might be a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ndFHYBZCCusq3Whb9/i-m-no-longer-sure-that-i-buy-dutch-book-arguments-and-this |
# The homework assignment incentives, and why it's now so extreme
I'll tell you about something that happened in middle school and high school. I had multiple classes each day, in different subjects. Maybe first I had math class. As we all know**,* the more homework is assigned in a subject, the better a student retai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qkfqiFHzmG36KqAhD/the-homework-assignment-incentives-and-why-it-s-now-so |
# Scaling Networks of Trust
Say you want to buy my house, but you're out of money. What can you do? There are some obvious things, like getting a job or taking out a loan, but those things bore you, so here's an interesting solution: you do something extraordinary that convinces me to trust you more than my wife. Then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dktESGGtYJwwdTjeo/scaling-networks-of-trust-1 |
# Burst work or steady work?
Some people work at a steady pace, below their Epic Maximum Work Capacity. Others try to keep up their Maximum Capacity, sometimes(?) burning out, but getting more done in the short bursts.
Over a time of, say, 6-18 months, which practice will lead to more work in the long run? Are there ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ev96TkyCGh2gtkpMG/burst-work-or-steady-work |
# D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021: The Duel with Earwax
It is dark in the submarine, and Maria isn’t ready.
Maria isn’t ready at *all*. Maria is in her usual post-battle fugue, disoriented, dissociated, checked-out, can’t come to the phone right now. Sending her to fight in this condition would be both homicide and suicide; a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NZvFostjy8gu5mEnc/d-and-d-sci-fi-june-2021-the-duel-with-earwax |
# The Point of Trade
*(Content warning: econoliteracy. Dialogue based on an actual conversation, but heavily idealized and simplified and stripped of surrounding context.)*
**Myself:** \- seems unreal because it *is* unreal. But there's a river of reality running through it. If somebody reports that something com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6KzFwcDy7hsCkzJKY/the-point-of-trade |
# Hardware for Transformative AI
I recently saw [A breakdown of AI Chip companies](https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2021/06/13/a-breakdown-of-ai-chip-companies.html) linked on LessWrong. I thought it was interesting, and it inspired me to add my 2 cents on what AI chips might be used in the case of transfor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kkNFnRPRpkiezhrWR/hardware-for-transformative-ai |
# Environmental Structure Can Cause Instrumental Convergence
**Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents a cripplingly unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcement learning. Reward functions... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b6jJddSvWMdZHJHh3/environmental-structure-can-cause-instrumental-convergence |
# Frequent arguments about alignment
Here, I’ll review some arguments that frequently come up in discussions about alignment research, involving one person skeptical of the endeavor (called Skeptic) and one person advocating to do more of it (called Advocate). I mostly endorse the views of the Advocate, but the Skepti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ccG9i5cTncebmhsH/frequent-arguments-about-alignment |
# Alex Turner's Research, Comprehensive Information Gathering
Introduction
============
This is the second post in a sequence where I try to focus on one topic for some time (the first two were for a month, but I'm changing with the one I'm currently doing). Initially I called this deep dives, but John's [Comprehensi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxsg2sTyHGnMTYbeH/alex-turner-s-research-comprehensive-information-gathering |
# How do you deal with people cargo culting COVID-19 defense?
In Berlin there are rules for public transportation where all passengers have to wear FFP-2 masks. Nobody, seems to care whether people wear the masks in a way that seals. The security personal in public transportation only wears surgical masks. Whenever, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MtmenhEzHgn6ZofcD/how-do-you-deal-with-people-cargo-culting-covid-19-defense |
# Empirical Observations of Objective Robustness Failures
[Inner alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820) and [objective](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2mhFMgtAjFJesaSYR/2-d-robustness) [robustness](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) have been freq... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iJDmL7HJtN5CYKReM/empirical-observations-of-objective-robustness-failures |
# Two non-obvious lessons from microcovid.org
At the 2021 Summer Solstice, Elizabeth Van Nostrand made a brief speech thanking the organizers of microcovid.org, which I found very heartwarming and meaningful.
I wish I had thought in advance about taking the opportunity to make a few public remarks about microcovid.or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZpHJ4Dd4DWWhpsJq/two-non-obvious-lessons-from-microcovid-org |
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