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# Covid 6/24: The Spanish Prisoner
The last scare is underway. Delta is an increasing share of Covid cases around the world, causing cases in many places to rise. Are enough people vaccinated? How bad are things going to get before we turn the corner one final time?
The incremental news was not good. Calculations th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YTKNRMwzGdTczPmcn/covid-6-24-the-spanish-prisoner |
# War on Cancer II
*Epistemic status: This isn’t medical advice. To the extent that it’s advice it’s health policy advice. I’m no domain expert. If you are faced with the prospect of cancer, consult with multiple experts. *
Introduction
------------
Richard Nixon declared the war against cancer in 1971. Beau Biden, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vR5TGLJLWEyeQ6Fg/war-on-cancer-ii |
# How do the side effects of Novavax compare to other COVID-19 vaccines?
I'm curious whether Novavax has the same side-effects of the mRNA vaccines where normal side-effects often involve the person being feeling too sick to do anything and having fever the next day. Unfortunately, most sources I find while googling a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RfdCJZtE7gPisjXFC/how-do-the-side-effects-of-novavax-compare-to-other-covid-19 |
# AXRP Episode 9 - Finite Factored Sets with Scott Garrabrant
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oc47lJXP6uQ&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=9)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s4FNjvrJG6zmYdBuG/axrp-episode-9-finite-factored-sets-with-scott-garrabrant |
# A Somewhat Rationalist Baptism
Preamble:
I am not religious, and neither is my wife, and neither are our families. Nevertheless, for reasons that I think are much funnier if left unstated, I ended up needing to baptize my daughters on two days' notice.
This is not "get my daughters baptized", note, this is "me, sp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fq7hp5tPKfroeAyiA/a-somewhat-rationalist-baptism |
# I Will Organize Meetups in Norfolk, Virginia [Hampton Roads Metro Area]
Hi!
I recently moved to Norfolk, Virginia. I used to organize the [in-person meetups prior to COVID when I lived in Houston, Texas](https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/pwitck4YZQsnXYp9q) and still organize meetups there virtually.
Now that I'm l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e2FrJwcsHB4bPz7rJ/i-will-organize-meetups-in-norfolk-virginia-hampton-roads |
# Announcing the Replacing Guilt audiobook
*tldr; Complete narration of the Replacing Guilt series is available here:* [*anchor.fm/guilt*](https://anchor.fm/guilt)
I discovered Nate Soares' [Replacing Guilt series](http://mindingourway.com/guilt/) in late 2019 via the [Bayesian Conspiracy podcast](https://www.thebaye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pAvvEX9GxZyRyd7Se/announcing-the-replacing-guilt-audiobook |
# Internal Information Cascades
Epistemic Status: *This was written in 2010 and existed in LW's editing purgatory ever since. It doesn't seem extremely wrong. ("Remember 'light side epistemology'? Pepperidge Farms remembers.") Perhaps the biggest flaw is that I didn't hit the publication button sooner and this meta-fl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22rycTyGGnPwPgoSK/internal-information-cascades |
# Why you should try a live reading session
For the last 8 months, I've been running live reading sessions with some of my friends, co-workers, and members of the local SSC/LW group. In this post I wish to share some of my findings on it's effectiveness, advantages and potential failure points
What is a live reading ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ffs7NrCXrv3GPfbJK/why-you-should-try-a-live-reading-session |
# [AN #153]: Experiments that demonstrate failures of objective robustness
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u9CqcufkAJBwXdbx7/an-153-experiments-that-demonstrate-failures-of-objective |
# What will be the aftermath of the US intelligence lab leak report?
I wrote a long post laying out the [evidence for the lab leak theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wQLXNjMKXdXXdK8kL/fauci-s-emails-and-the-lab-leak-hypothesis). It's very likely that when the US intelligence community reports on 25. August on the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3MvKSSj3fkcgetTkp/what-will-be-the-aftermath-of-the-us-intelligence-lab-leak |
# Deep limitations? Examining expert disagreement over deep learning
A recent publication by Carla Zoe Cremer, who's working at the Future of Humanity Institute:
> We conducted 25 expert interviews resulting in the identification of 40 limitations of the deep learning approach and 5 origins of expert disagreement. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GXnppjWaQLSKRvnSB/deep-limitations-examining-expert-disagreement-over-deep |
# The Language of Bird
*This is a fictional snippet from the* [*AI Vignettes Day*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts)*. I do not think this is a likely future, but it’s a useful future to think about - it gives a different lens for thinking about the alignment problem and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pmeZodEmcTarpnbCC/the-language-of-bird |
# Sam Altman and Ezra Klein on the AI Revolution
On _The New York Times_'s Ezra Klein Show podcast, Klein interviews OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on the future of AI [(archived with transcript)](https://archive.is/BT2Lr). (Note the nod to _Slate Star Codex_ in the reading recommendations at the end.)
My favorite ("favorite"... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2nLnTMCogFujFYCHD/sam-altman-and-ezra-klein-on-the-ai-revolution |
# The Unexpected Hanging Paradox
The Unexpected Hanging Paradox has been described as follows:
> *A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EtcDGj7mbhJFDyXLv/the-unexpected-hanging-paradox |
# Finite Factored Sets: LW transcript with running commentary
This is an edited transcript of Scott Garrabrant's May 23 LessWrong talk on finite factored sets. Video:
Slides: [https://intelligence.org/files/Factored-Set-Slides.pdf](https://intelligence.org/files/Factored-Set-Slides.pdf)
Since there are existing int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6t9F5cS3JjtSspbAZ/finite-factored-sets-lw-transcript-with-running-commentary |
# What are some claims or opinions about multi-multi delegation you've seen in the memeplex that you think deserve scrutiny?
I think multi-multi is really hard to think about. One of the first steps I'm taking to get less confused about it is to scrutinize claims or opinions that I've encountered in the wild.
## Cont... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vzWmTCBYKmjfMTfmw/what-are-some-claims-or-opinions-about-multi-multi |
# What precautions should fully-vaccinated people still be taking?
(UPDATE 9/6/21: now that more is known about the Delta variant, I'm being more conservative than I articulated below, and managing to a weekly risk budget of 400 microcovids. The main difference beyond what I articulated below is that I'm no longer int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/La5yMpgaoTZfepP8c/what-precautions-should-fully-vaccinated-people-still-be |
# Brute force searching for alignment
*This is a speculative idea I came up with when writing* [*clankers*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lJFaONgHExizl5WRYO_TRrB9LohM7sWJkjWfbe2bXlk/edit?usp=sharing)*, which was one of the short stories in the* [*AI vignettes workshop*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1y5CE--... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MRFXpedeKJRa324dL/brute-force-searching-for-alignment |
# Intentionally Making Close Friends
Introduction
============
One of the greatest sources of joy in my life are my close friends. People who bring excitement and novelty into my life. Who expose me to new experiences, and ways of seeing the world. Who help me learn, point out my blind spots, and correct me when ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pfibDHFZ3waBo6pAc/intentionally-making-close-friends |
# Optimism about Social Technology
In reaction to my morning dose of negativity from \[blogger's name redacted\], I am compelled to share some contrarian optimism:
I see a decent chance of significant improvements to the human condition in the near future due to breakthroughs in social technology. The historical prec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dCSfoaz46kGrTX2DM/optimism-about-social-technology |
# How teams went about their research at AI Safety Camp edition 5
AI Safety Camp connects new collaborators worldwide to discuss and decide on a concrete research proposal, gear up online as a team, and try their hand at AI safety research* during intensive coworking sprints.
Six teams formed at our [recent 5-month v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEmfyhqMcSpfnY2dX/how-teams-went-about-their-research-at-ai-safety-camp |
# How much interest would there be in a fringe theories wiki?
I've been exploring a concept for a wiki recently. The idea would be that people contribute fringe theories and present the best evidence for that theory, perhaps by contrasting it with mainstream interpretations of the data. Some examples of pages on the w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEdrcyn2yGfjemGRn/how-much-interest-would-there-be-in-a-fringe-theories-wiki |
# A quantitative introduction to churning
Credit card companies offer sign up bonuses and other benefits to incentivize you to open a credit card with them. Churning is the art of going after these benefits systematically. It's surprisingly lucrative.
This post serves two purposes. One, I will describe common churni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/89bLiSFPowKcKQibw/a-quantitative-introduction-to-churning-1 |
# Intro to Debt Crises
In 2018 Ray Dalio wrote a book called [Principles of Navigating Big Debt Crises](https://www.principles.com/big-debt-crises/). He argues that we are *at least* near enough to being in a debt crisis that it is important to start thinking about how to most gracefully deal with them. After reading ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRmukgwCpedtFGkZj/intro-to-debt-crises |
# Opinionated Uncertainty
**Real Life: It's More Than Mere Algebra!**
The expected value (E) of an event is the product of its value (V) and its probability (P):
E = VP.
Considered algebraically, both V and P play equal roles in determining E. It wouldn't make sense to say that "the magnitude of the consequences of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gfbmJKNTLtMFpmTF7/opinionated-uncertainty |
# How will OpenAI + GitHub's Copilot affect programming?
[https://copilot.github.com/](https://copilot.github.com/)
[https://github.blog/2021-06-29-introducing-github-copilot-ai-pair-programmer/](https://github.blog/2021-06-29-introducing-github-copilot-ai-pair-programmer/)
> GitHub Copilot is powered by OpenAI Code... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YkQdokmutQim4T34u/how-will-openai-github-s-copilot-affect-programming |
# Trying to approximate Statistical Models as Scoring Tables
For my PhD research, I have been tinkering with the idea of approximating complex, non-linear statistical models (Bayesian networks) as simple, quasi-linear models.
I am making some headway into the problem, but I feel I need yet to clarify what exactly I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThzSBvWg3mqWZgciD/trying-to-approximate-statistical-models-as-scoring-tables |
# Why did we wait so long for the threshing machine?
When ripe wheat is harvested, the edible seed is encased in an outer husk. Before the seed can be ground into flour, or boiled into porridge, or planted in the field to produce next year’s harvest, it must be removed from the husk. This process is called threshing.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K7wtTqTEoKXC9Kb24/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-threshing-machine |
# D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NZvFostjy8gu5mEnc/d-and-d-sci-fi-june-2021-the-duel-with-earwax) I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j7gp2kgcbBAbevuhb/d-and-d-sci-fi-june-2021-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# How do the ivermectin meta-reviews come to so different conclusions?
[Ivermectin and outcomes from Covid-19 pneumonia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trial studies](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rmv.2265) comes to the conclusion: "Our study suggests that ivermectin may off... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EAnLQLZeCreiFBHN8/how-do-the-ivermectin-meta-reviews-come-to-so-different |
# Do incoherent entities have stronger reason to become more coherent than less?
My understanding is that various ‘coherence’ arguments exist of the form:
1. If your preferences diverged from being representable by a utility function in some way, then you would do strictly worse in some way than by having some kind ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9K7zFyP6sw3mGrKzp/do-incoherent-entities-have-stronger-reason-to-become-more |
# Is it true that most studies in Kahneman's 'Thinking fast and slow' are not replicable and the book is largely not supported by evidence?
So I stumbled on this article.
https://replicationindex.com/2020/12/30/a-meta-scientific-perspective-on-thinking-fast-and-slow
'So, replicability [of all studies in this book... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YKErue3HYoE9r4K9q/is-it-true-that-most-studies-in-kahneman-s-thinking-fast-and |
# Simulacrum Levels of Trust
*Epistemic Status: Pattern matching. The model completes a pattern in an intuitive way. Little originality besides the act of pattern completion itself.*
As I was reading the [recent](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rkm8tgEd5o8YdAPoQ/networks-of-trust-vs-markets) [discussion](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W4wJbSd2GaXjvRkar/simulacrum-levels-of-trust |
# Progress on Causal Influence Diagrams
*By Tom Everitt, Ryan Carey, Lewis Hammond, James Fox, Eric Langlois, and Shane Legg*
*Crossposted from* [*DeepMind Safety Research*](https://deepmindsafetyresearch.medium.com/progress-on-causal-influence-diagrams-a7a32180b0d1)
About 2 years ago, we released the [first](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cd7Hw492RqooYgQAS/progress-on-causal-influence-diagrams |
# [AN #154]: What economic growth theory has to say about transformative AI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9AcEy2zThvceT9kve/an-154-what-economic-growth-theory-has-to-say-about |
# Musings on general systems alignment
Epistemic status: Musings from the past month. Still far too vague for satisfaction.
---
Friends.
I have been away on a retreat this past week, seeking clarity on how to move forward with living a vibrant and beneficial life that resolves problems in the world, but I’m afraid ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hKMgCaAYS4hnanxBL/musings-on-general-systems-alignment |
# Thoughts on safety in predictive learning
*(Many thanks to Abram Demski for an extensive discussion that helped clarify my thoughts. Thanks Abram &* [*John Maxwell*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/john_maxwell) *for comments and criticisms on a draft.)*
Background: Why do I care?
==========================
Way ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ey7jACdF4j6GrQLrG/thoughts-on-safety-in-predictive-learning |
# Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?
Tom Davidson from Open Philanthropy released [a post](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth) recently talking about economic growth and AI. I was somewhat surprised to see that no one had yet made a linkpost on Lesswrong ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGWMCFkETTg8EZ2bB/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth |
# Covid 7/1: Don’t Panic
The case numbers this week were clearly bad news. The raw count was somewhat bad news, and the positive test percentage increase was very bad news. It would be easy to treat the whole shift as fully ‘real,’ attribute it all to Delta, and panic.
I do not think that is the correct interpretati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhwRXmiyToLti8Nca/covid-7-1-don-t-panic |
# Experimentally evaluating whether honesty generalizes
If we train our ML systems to answer questions honestly in cases where humans can check the answer, will they generalize to behave honestly on questions where we can’t check?
I think that we could learn a lot about this question by running experiments today. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BxersHYN2qcFoonwg/experimentally-evaluating-whether-honesty-generalizes |
# Online LessWrong Community Weekend
Contact: [lesswrong.cw.2021@gmail.com](mailto:lesswrong.cw.2021@gmail.com)
A new team from Cologne and a couple other places decided to make the online LWCW happen again. We also got some of previous years' main organizers on board to help preserve the atmosphere of the event.
Fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/sgsNzr6fyeHgjtpFy/online-lesswrong-community-weekend-1 |
# Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
Highlights
----------
* Some Superforecasters start a [substack](https://supers.substack.com/), as does [Dominic Cummings](https://dominiccummings.substack.com)
* Alex Lawsen and I published [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.1124... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AueXCMpJ5YSEufdTw/forecasting-newsletter-june-2021 |
# Causes of a Debt Crisis—Economic
The crazy thing about [debt crises](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pRmukgwCpedtFGkZj/intro-to-debt-crises) is that they don’t get incentivized away by an efficient market. First, prices are way too high, then they’re way too low—why don’t self-interested people profit enough on avoi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r9HMLDE53aBJtWrCp/causes-of-a-debt-crisis-economic |
# A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing
I've made [a site for publishing predictions and publicly offering to bet on them](https://biatob.com). LessWrong seems like a place that might be interested in such a tool, and I expect at least 4 people will be interested enough in this site to play... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QHL6Pf2GTNT3MLCHv/a-somewhat-beta-site-for-embedding-betting-odds-in-your |
# Confusions re: Higher-Level Game Theory
$\newcommand{\act}{A_0} \newcommand{\actf}{B_0}$
This is not a success post. This is me trying to type up a rough draft of a bunch of issues that have been floating around in my head for quite some time, so I have a document for me and others to refer back to.
So, the standa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FPML8k4QtjJxk3Y4M/confusions-re-higher-level-game-theory |
# New Dementia Trial Results
There\'s a new [clinical trial
result](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.10.21256982v1.full)
showing that [Bredesen\'s
approach](http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2017/10/19/the-end-of-alzheimers/)
is able to at least partially cure common forms of Alzheimer-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LXYtBfABct4n8uEze/new-dementia-trial-results |
# How would you run the statistics on whether Ivermectin helped India reduce COVID-19 cases?
I frequently read the claim that India reduced their COVID-19 cases a lot via Ivermectin but it's very unclear to me whether the relevant data to make that claim is cheripicked.
India has 34 region and each of those region h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EuecT8JorB9bH2ZMj/how-would-you-run-the-statistics-on-whether-ivermectin |
# Open and Welcome Thread – July 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YkCEqnXb6vvZH3iGe/open-and-welcome-thread-july-2021 |
# Notes on Kindness
This post examines the virtue of **kindness**. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn more about kindness and how to become better at it. I hope it will be helpful to people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
What is kindness?
=================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mgdzgrj9fbJCnCGMD/notes-on-kindness |
# An Apprentice Experiment in Python Programming
A couple weeks ago Zvi made [an apprentice thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/scNCmwaduCgJmCBYh). I have always wanted to be someone's apprentice, but it didn't occur to me that I could just ...ask to do that. Mainly I was concerned about this being too big of an a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kv3RG7Ax8sgn2eog7/an-apprentice-experiment-in-python-programming |
# Can group identity be a force for good?
Many in the rationalist sphere look down on tribalism and group identity. Paul Graham [writes](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html) that identity interferes with people’s ability to have a productive discussion. Julia Galef seconds this view (though with exceptions), devot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mDtQ4yJwBr7LBxWAM/can-group-identity-be-a-force-for-good |
# Anthropic Effects in Estimating Evolution Difficulty
_Thanks to Linchuan Zhang, Jack Ryan and Carl Shulman for helpful comments and suggestions. Remaining mistakes are my own._
Epistemic status: “There is something fascinating about [anthropics]. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pg6Z5tiuXotGTWaG8/anthropic-effects-in-estimating-evolution-difficulty |
# We Still Don't Know If Masks Work
# Introduction:
Recently a [paper](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1) was published which got attention by estimating that 100% mask wearing in the population would cause a 25% reduction in the [effective transmission number](https://www.healthknowledge.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fSNp942XBztB352fn/we-still-don-t-know-if-masks-work |
#
Resources On Mental Health And Finding A Therapist
*This is an earlier* [*post from my blog*](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2021/2/21/resources-on-mental-health-and-finding-a-therapist)*, which I'm crossposting here as a resource. *
While the oft-cited statistic is that 20% of adults have a mental ill... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A8aXKxJTBbGvTdu7J/resources-on-mental-health-and-finding-a-therapist |
# You are allowed to edit Wikipedia
I frequently hear complains from people about individual Wikipedia pages but most of the people who complain only complain outside of Wikipedia. Wikipedia is inherently democratic. If you read a Wikipedia article and think it's very problematic, take five minutes and write about why... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QLtoNkEbuZz2zZs4x/you-are-allowed-to-edit-wikipedia |
# Spoiler-Free Review: Roguebook
If someone asks me what one game they should play, my answer is Slay the Spire. It’s an amazing game, and with it now out for every platform including mobile phones, the only reason not to play is concern that you won’t know when to stop.
I’ve also played a lot of other rogue deckbui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QRJkxcDtJ58j8XN6A/spoiler-free-review-roguebook |
# Are coincidences clues about missed disasters? It depends on your answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem.
In April, Gwern posted this [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/comments/milujs/ai_and_compute_trend_isnt_predictive_of_what_is/gt5eyav?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) in response to slowed ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uSMa6Fj5nMgntpxfo/are-coincidences-clues-about-missed-disasters-it-depends-on |
# Musing on the Many Worlds Hypothesis
The All, it seems, cannot commit
But at each crossroads makes a split.
When quanta have a chance to vary,
It answers “both” to every query,
Nine tredecillion times a minute
At every place with quanta in it.
With each mitosis, it is reckoned,
One universe creates a s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xminHYfKsNt7Mc3qX/musing-on-the-many-worlds-hypothesis |
# The topic is not the content
Disclaimer: I’ve never held a job for more than a year \[[1\]](https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/the-topic-is-not-the-content#footnote-1) or been paid more than $15 an hour. Take everything I say with a grain of salt.
Many of my peers seem to make career plans like by asking things li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x6Kv7nxKHfLGtPJej/the-topic-is-not-the-content |
# A simple example of conditional orthogonality in finite factored sets
Recently, MIRI researcher Scott Garrabrant has [publicized his work on finite factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr/p/N5Jm6Nj4HkNKySA5Z). It allegedly offers a way to understand agency and causality in a set-up like the [cau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qGjCt4Xq83MBaygPx/a-simple-example-of-conditional-orthogonality-in-finite |
# Preschooler Turnovers
I recently got into making proper flaky pastry, and while it's a bit of a hassle it's really very tasty. I think I started with [this recipe](https://www.seriouseats.com/old-fashioned-flaky-pie-dough-recipe), and I've been getting decent at it:
[]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uELhK26o7sYE82KWR/preschooler-turnovers |
# In-group loyalty is social cement
There is a widespread idea, or cliché or meme, that in-group loyalty is the psychological equivalent of the appendix: an organ that was once useful, when we were in tiny hunter-gatherer bands, but now can only do harm. It turns up in Chris Paley’s new book, *Beyond Bad*, which contr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQ45JdpbgtuBYWbo5/in-group-loyalty-is-social-cement |
# Rationality Yellow Belt Test Questions?
Since joining the Official Idealized Rationality Organization as a fresh novice six months ago, you have been training and studying hard, and today you are ready to take your exam to advance to the first rank of recognized skill and knowledge.
You expect the test to be diffi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tzogGiCC9WHnKJ7nn/rationality-yellow-belt-test-questions |
# Potential Bottlenecks to Taking Over The World
*This is a fictional snippet from the* [*AI Vignettes Day*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts)*. This scenario assumes that cognition is not **that** taut an economic constraint. Post-AI, physical experimentation is still th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mha5GA5BfWcpf2jHC/potential-bottlenecks-to-taking-over-the-world |
# Relentlessness
> There’s not a great way to convey the merciless relentlessness of having a child who insists on continuing to exist and want and need regardless of how much sleep you got, how sick you are, how many times you have already read that book, how tired your arms or how aching your feet, how hungry or swe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SFm4RmpEBYqooEogW/relentlessness |
# Chess and cheap ways to check day to day variance in cognition
Lately I've been playing chess. I'm not very good at it. I started because our four-year-old got into it, and I preferred not to lose to her before she had earned it. I play online on chess.com, which has instantaneous matchups with strangers at approxim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nvRauqCD3u5hdkLm9/chess-and-cheap-ways-to-check-day-to-day-variance-in |
# A second example of conditional orthogonality in finite factored sets
Yesterday, I wrote a [post](https://danielfilan.com/2021/07/05/simple_example_conditional_orthogonality_ffs.html) that gave an example of conditional non-orthogonality in [finite factored sets](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr/p/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GFGNwCwkffBevyXR2/a-second-example-of-conditional-orthogonality-in-finite |
# Intelligence without Consciousness
I sleep-talk. In fact, I don't just talk in my sleep, I can carry on a conversation. Advice and insight I have is much lower quality than when I'm awake, but I'm mostly coherent. Once someone recorded a conversation with me, and it was pretty funny. For example: "A lot of people li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bFdnqKETbQAf2fELn/intelligence-without-consciousness |
# Agency and the unreliable autonomous car
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: I believe ~85% that the technical argument presented in this piece is correct.*
---
## Outline
* This is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8AjDwHp9pvZdm6ZEp/agency-and-the-unreliable-autonomous-car |
# How much chess engine progress is about adapting to bigger computers?
(*This question comes from a discussion with Carl Shulman*.)
In this post I describe an experiment that I'd like to see run. I'm posting a $1,000 - $10,000 prize for a convincing implementation of these experiments. I also post a number of smalle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H6L7fuEN9qXDanQ6W/how-much-chess-engine-progress-is-about-adapting-to-bigger |
# Announcing My Free Online Course "Original Seeing With a Focus On Life"
In May and June of 2021, I ran an online nature study course with about two dozen participants. I had three goals:
1. Help people create or deepen a personal connection with nature.
2. Learn how to run month-long online courses with over a doze... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7AgWZRWmwkakwdKF/announcing-my-free-online-course-original-seeing-with-a |
# A world in which the alignment problem seems lower-stakes
The danger from power-seeking is not *intrinsic* to the alignment problem. This danger also depends on [the structure of the agent's environment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b6jJddSvWMdZHJHh3/environmental-structure-can-cause-instrumental-convergence).
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sunXMY5WyDcrHsNRr/a-world-in-which-the-alignment-problem-seems-lower-stakes |
# Anthropics in infinite universes
When talking about anthropics, people often say things like "assume the universe is finite; weird things happen in infinite universes". I've myself [argued](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/99isjR8W4JGZdro7x/sia-fears-expected-infinity) that [SSA](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/self-sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rbJLrcmHtusGBudTY/anthropics-in-infinite-universes |
# The SIA population update can be surprisingly small
*With many thanks to Damon Binder, and the spirited conversations that lead to this post, and to Anders Sandberg.*
People often think that the [self-indication assumption](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/self-indication-assumption) (SIA) implies a huge number of ali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfEsxAtBTLgFe7fSZ/the-sia-population-update-can-be-surprisingly-small |
# Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over
Delta is now two thirds of sequenced samples from the past week, so we can be confident that it has taken over, and soon will be most cases in America, and soon after that most cases around the world. That’s bad news, but given we know the case numbers, it sort of is good news. It means w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nxsLwRvnGBuRLpKSs/covid-7-8-delta-takes-over |
# Anthropics and Fermi: grabby, visible, zoo-keeping, and early aliens
When updating the probability of life across the universe, there are two main observations we have to build on:
* Anthropic update: we exist on Earth.
* [Fermi observation](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf): (we exist on Earth and) we don't s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wgHbNZHsqfiXiqofd/anthropics-and-fermi-grabby-visible-zoo-keeping-and-early |
# Practical anthropics summary
This is a simple summary of how to "do anthropics":
* If there are no issues of exact copies, or advanced decision theory, and the questions you're asking aren't weird, then use SIA. And by "use SIA", I mean "ignore the [definition of SIA](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/self-indication-a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfMExCKWipKeCdSuG/practical-anthropics-summary |
# The Efficient Market Hypothesis in Research
A classic economics joke goes like this:
> Two economists are walking down a road, when one of them notices a $20 bill on the ground. He turns to his friend and exclaims: "Look, a $20 bill!" The other replies: "Nah, if there's a $20 on the bill on the ground, someone woul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/guybGgt6spPkt7GYa/the-efficient-market-hypothesis-in-research |
# [AN #155]: A Minecraft benchmark for algorithms that learn without reward functions
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can lo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7YgzDYx4FhdB3TmR/an-155-a-minecraft-benchmark-for-algorithms-that-learn |
# BASALT: A Benchmark for Learning from Human Feedback
Copying the abstract of the [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.01969):
> The last decade has seen a significant increase of interest in deep learning research, with many public successes that have demonstrated its potential. As such, these systems are now being i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RyH8LtgMbRAJ9Dv6R/basalt-a-benchmark-for-learning-from-human-feedback |
# Jackpot! An AI Vignette
I started noticing the world had gotten weirder when my grandmother messaged the family that she wanted to do her 80th birthday party in Reno.
Don't get me wrong, Reno is great - biggest little city in the world! - but we're New Yorkers, why on earth fly to a desert? If you want to rough it,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GaiPHXcaS4acouipC/jackpot-an-ai-vignette |
# Intermittent Distillations #4: Semiconductors, Economics, Intelligence, and Technological Progress.
# The Semiconductor Supply Chain: Assessing National Competitiveness (Saif M. Khan, Alexander Mann, Dahlia Peterson)
[The Semiconductor Supply Chain: Assessing National Competitiveness](https://cset.georgetown.edu/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rQGW2GqHAFprupYkf/intermittent-distillations-4-semiconductors-economics |
# The news attention span
Every day, every daily news source sends out headlines to their readers via newspapers and the web. Most of the time, the top headlines have no relation to the previous day's headlines... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sNHskQAd2HQ2rAQKH/the-news-attention-span |
# Improving capital gains taxes
As [I’ve mentioned](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10226042076376269), I think the tax code could be improved. In a departure from my usual style, this post fleshes out some fairness-based arguments for one of my favorite changes.
(I think that this proposal, and many o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m3WbigDjjgzKLpwvk/improving-capital-gains-taxes |
# Finite Factored Sets: Conditional Orthogonality
We now want to extend our notion of [orthogonality](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr/p/yT7QdN2wEubR8exAH) to conditional orthogonality. This will take a bit of work. In particular, we will have to first extend our notions of partition *generation* and *his... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hA6z9s72KZDYpuFhq/finite-factored-sets-conditional-orthogonality |
# For reducing caffeine dependence, does daily maximum matter more, or does total daily intake matter more?
I'm trying to reduce my dependence on caffeine from needing ~160mg in the morning to needing 80mg. My strategy is to slowly reduce my intake, dropping maybe 20mg every 3 days. So far so good.
But sometimes I f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i6K7JXGXguJnp5eFJ/for-reducing-caffeine-dependence-does-daily-maximum-matter |
# Going Out With Dignity
DF was born with a time bomb in his genome, a deadly curse more horrifying than most. The name of this curse was Fatal familial insomnia (FFI).
Wikipedia describes the usual progression of this hell:
> The disease has four stages:[^\[8\]^](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatal_insomnia#cite_no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CBWSDdzjqfnexBurB/going-out-with-dignity |
# Research Facilitation Invitation
Summary: Would you like to help me with my research by letting me try to help you with your research?
***
One of my brand new sub-projects at the moment (underneath the larger "naturalism" heading) is research facilitation.
So far, I've mostly been developing the [school? methodol... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EKc4RfKhPRmnLtRXn/research-facilitation-invitation |
# For some, now may be the time to get your third Covid shot
#### Summary
- It seems likely there is a significant benefit to a booster shot in preventing symptomatic infection in the face of the Delta variant for many people (Bullets 1-3).
- There is significant indication that a third dose of an mRNA vaccine has a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8RYxQrKegKMDGHcvo/for-some-now-may-be-the-time-to-get-your-third-covid-shot |
# The accumulation of knowledge: literature review
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
This post is part of a sequence on the accumulation of knowle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dkruhqAEhXnbAk7iJ/the-accumulation-of-knowledge-literature-review |
# Book Review: Order Without Law
_This review [originally appeared](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-order-without-law) on the blog [Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/) as part of a contest. You can now read it here, <del>with working footnotes</del>. (LW note: footnotes didn'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBSdqhxgKWQ8wCB5k/book-review-order-without-law |
# And the Darkness Answered
**Epistemic Status:** Endorsed
**Part of the Series:** Open Portals
**Previous Post:** [My Journey to the Dark Side](https://hivewired.wordpress.com/2021/05/06/my-journey-to-the-dark-side/)
**Author:** [Octavia](https://hivewired.wordpress.com/octavia/)
*“This horror will grow mild, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ucsE2zTqKLzLnGoSw/and-the-darkness-answered |
# The More Power At Stake, The Stronger Instrumental Convergence Gets For Optimal Policies
**Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents a cripplingly unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yc5QSSZCQ9qdyxZF6/the-more-power-at-stake-the-stronger-instrumental |
# We have some evidence that masks work
by Gavin Leech and [Charlie Rogers-Smith](https://www.charlierogers-smith.com/)
[Our work](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817v1) on masks vs COVID at the population level was [recently reproduced](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fSNp942XBztB352fn/we-sti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J7RnKXcyCNdrdAus4/we-have-some-evidence-that-masks-work |
# The inescapability of knowledge
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.*
---
Friends, I know that it is difficult to accept, but it just [does not s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DLjCSHjwbxzEEa6Hu/the-inescapability-of-knowledge |
# Winston Churchill, futurist and EA
Churchill—when he wasn’t busy leading the fight against the Nazis—had many hobbies. He [wrote more than a dozen volumes of history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill_as_historian), [painted over 500 pictures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill_as_painter)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5yM2psv77LLA5wMYe/winston-churchill-futurist-and-ea |
# Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs
This is a link post to the "[Anthropic decision theory for self-locating beliefs](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1110.6437.pdf)" paper, with the abstract:
>This paper sets out to resolve how agents ought to act in the Sleeping Beauty problem and various related anthropic (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MZJxtzjSeezEkedWn/anthropic-decision-theory-for-self-locating-beliefs |
# What would it look like if it looked like AGI was very near?
I am writing a post on scenario-based planning, and thought it would be useful to get some example scenario symptoms on the topic of near-term AGI.
So the scenario-based planning thought exercise goes like this:
Imagine it is ten years from now and AGI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YRtzpJHhoFWxbjCso/what-would-it-look-like-if-it-looked-like-agi-was-very-near |
# (Brainstem, Neocortex) ≠ (Base Motivations, Honorable Motivations)
The idea I *do* like
====================
There's an idea I'm very fond of where:
* The neocortex (well, the [telencephalon](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrewt3rLFiKWrKuyZ/big-picture-of-phasic-dopamine) and thalamus, but let’s just call it “n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cTSLLzK4MwiCyWtwt/brainstem-neocortex-base-motivations-honorable-motivations |
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