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# [Link] Musk's non-missing mood
Luke Muehlhauser writes:
> Over the years, my colleagues and I have spoken to many machine learning researchers who, perhaps after some discussion and argument, claim to think there’s a moderate chance — a 5%, or 15%, or even a 40% chance — that AI systems will destroy human civilizat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cAiKhgoRcyJiCMmjq/link-musk-s-non-missing-mood |
# A new option for building lumenators
For background on lumenators:
* [https://meaningness.com/sad-light-led-lux](https://meaningness.com/sad-light-led-lux)
* [https://arbital.com/p/lumenators/](https://arbital.com/p/lumenators/)
* [How to Build a Lumenator](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hC2NFsuf5anuGadFm/ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZAMA4y6SbtFCTjjY4/a-new-option-for-building-lumenators |
# Typology of blog posts that don’t always add anything clear and insightful
I used to think a good blog post should basically be a description of a novel insight.
To break it down more, on this view:
1. A blog post should have a **propositional** **claim** (e.g. ‘the biggest externalities are from noise pollution’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjL6pkiypGwBHqrwN/typology-of-blog-posts-that-don-t-always-add-anything-clear |
# What will the twenties look like if AGI is 30 years away?
I'm especially interested to hear from people with long (i.e. 20+ year) timelines what they think the next 10 years will look like.
\[EDIT: After [pushback from Richard Ngo](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/axbTNGuMtB4hCkNus/what-will-the-twenties-look-like-i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/axbTNGuMtB4hCkNus/what-will-the-twenties-look-like-if-agi-is-30-years-away |
# The Additive Summary Equation
This post contains some theorems and proofs needed for a hopefully-upcoming post on some powerful generalizations of the [Koopman-Pitman-Darmois (KPD) Theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufficient_statistic#Exponential_family). Unless you find functional equations interesting in the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E4GvMdELt6s6CaXrb/the-additive-summary-equation |
# Answering questions honestly instead of predicting human answers: lots of problems and some solutions
_This post is the result of work I did with Paul Christiano on the ideas in his “[Teaching ML to answer questions honestly instead of predicting human answers](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/QqwZ7cwEA2cxFEAun/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEw8ig38mCGjia7dj/answering-questions-honestly-instead-of-predicting-human |
# CGP Grey on the difficulty of knowing what's true [audio]
Starts 00:34:40, ends 00:49:06. Features discussion of tracking down sources for historical 'facts' to discover that the sources don't say what people say they say, the difficulty of knowing what's true, and exasperation at the idea that companies such as You... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BtwTiFARpY7PzdyxB/cgp-grey-on-the-difficulty-of-knowing-what-s-true-audio |
# The Bullwhip Effect
Background
----------
In the 1990s, when Procter & Gamble was examining the supply chain order patterns for one of its best-selling products, Pampers diapers, they discovered an interesting phenomenon. As they expected, the sales at its retail stores fluctuated moderately. However, as they moved... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwAAAtRpemBqyhDC2/the-bullwhip-effect |
# Imaginary reenactment to heal trauma – how and when does it work?
Some therapies involve various forms of imaginary reenactment, where you heal a trauma by first recalling the memory of it and then imagining how things could have gone differently. Sometimes the imagined alternative can be quite fantastical in nature... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FFBQuuYYoPphvDaNT/imaginary-reenactment-to-heal-trauma-how-and-when-does-it |
# Essentialness of Data
In discussing online privacy, people will sometimes say things like " [if the data isn't required to operate, you don't need it](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27824695)." If I can turn on tracking protection, stop sending data, and nothing breaks, then clearly it wasn't needed, right? Bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jT6feGqMGBM3G7ExH/essentialness-of-data |
# Model-based RL, Desires, Brains, Wireheading
Summary
=======
I’m very interested in [model-based RL as a framework for how people might build AGI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zzXawbXDwCZobwF9D/my-agi-threat-model-misaligned-model-based-rl-agent), in large part because [I think that human intelligence is built f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K5ikTdaNymfWXQHFb/model-based-rl-desires-brains-wireheading |
# A cognitive algorithm for "free will."
> So here's your homework problem: What kind of cognitive algorithm, as felt from the inside, would generate the observed debate about "free will"? - [Dissolving the Question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mc6QcrsbH5NRXbCRX/dissolving-the-question)
**Edit:** In the linked p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oCaCrxocd8vtQkbHi/a-cognitive-algorithm-for-free-will |
# Lafayette: traffic vessels
This week I’m in Lafayette, a town merely twenty-three minutes further from my San Franciscan office than my usual San Franciscan home, thanks to light rail. There are deer in the street and woods on the walk from the train to town.
On this occasion at least, Lafayette doesn’t feel proper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N27envZBopgZkRsTm/lafayette-traffic-vessels |
# Re: Competent Elites
> One of the *major* surprises I received when I moved out of childhood into the real world, was the degree to which the world is stratified by *genuine* competence.
>
> ⋮
>
> [T]hese people of the Power Elite *were visibly much smarter than average mortals*. In conversation they spoke quickly,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XyxC9TcH5kvPoM5TB/re-competent-elites |
# A closer look at chess scalings (into the past)
Introduction
===============
I had explored [measuring AI or hardware overhang](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75dnjiD8kv2khe9eQ/measuring-hardware-overhang) in August 2020 using chess. Hardware overhang is when sufficient compute is available, but the algorithms ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4MLBK7iCW3vYd93Mn/a-closer-look-at-chess-scalings-into-the-past |
# Experimentation with AI-generated images (VQGAN+CLIP) | Solarpunk airships fleeing a dragon
A few days ago I found the Twitter account [@images_ai](https://twitter.com/images_ai), which posts AI-generated images and links to [these instructions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Lu7XPRKlNhBQjcKr8k8qRzUzbBW7kzxb5Vu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/toYwxxAHEpsf8mkn9/experimentation-with-ai-generated-images-vqgan-clip-or |
# Covid 7/15: Rates of Change
Cases rose by over 60% in America this week, and we’re seeing large jumps in cases around the world. I am highly suspicious about the jump in the rate of increase, but Delta certainly seems to be the real deal, and this was well above my expectations.
I worry that recently I’ve lacked s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfW3iGSttvfLY74tt/covid-7-15-rates-of-change |
# Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
_This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views. A draft was sent to Robin Hanson for review but received no response._
# Summary
*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h3ejmEeNniDNFXTgp/fractional-progress-estimates-for-ai-timelines-and-implied |
# Generalizing Koopman-Pitman-Darmois
Suppose we want to estimate the mean and variance of a normal distribution from some samples $X_1 … X_n$ from the distribution. It turns out that we don’t need to keep around all of the data: only the sample mean $\hat{\mu} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_i X_i$ and sample variance $\hat{\Sigm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tGCyRQigGoqA4oSRo/generalizing-koopman-pitman-darmois |
# How to Sleep Better
This is a cross-post from my [personal blog](http://mariushobbhahn.com/).
**What is this post about?**
----------------------------
Over the summer of 2020, I slept pretty badly for a long period of time and it had pretty noticeable effects on my productivity, perceived energy levels, and well-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KGanghgdx3GHejNFY/how-to-sleep-better |
# Lafayette: empty traffic signals
Seeking to cross a road on the walk into downtown Lafayette, instead of the normal pedestrian crossing situation, we met a button with a sign, ‘Push button to turn on warning lights’. I wondered, if I pressed it, would it then be my turn to cross? Or would there just be some warning ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RidDaWbEAYYf6KBbg/lafayette-empty-traffic-signals |
# Benchmarking an old chess engine on new hardware
I previously explored the performance of a modern chess engine on old hardware ([1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75dnjiD8kv2khe9eQ/measuring-hardware-overhang), [2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4MLBK7iCW3vYd93Mn/a-closer-look-at-chess-scalings-into-the-past)). P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J6gktpSgYoyq5q3Au/benchmarking-an-old-chess-engine-on-new-hardware |
# Underlying model of an imperfect morphism
$\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\oF}{\overline{\mathcal{F}}}\newcommand{\Qr}{\mathcal{Q}_r}$
We've already seen that if $\M_0=(\F_0,Q_0)$ and $\M_1=(\F_1,Q_1)$ are generalised models... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnxkAiGcQpfErjHYT/underlying-model-of-an-imperfect-morphism |
# [AN #156]: The scaling hypothesis: a plan for building AGI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spread... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XusDPpXr6FYJqWkxh/an-156-the-scaling-hypothesis-a-plan-for-building-agi |
# Open Philanthropy is seeking proposals for outreach projects
\[Cross-posted from [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EEtTQkFKRwLniXkQm/open-philanthropy-is-seeking-proposals-for-outreach-projects).\]
Open Philanthropy is [seeking proposals](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/other-areas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2cxs7JssXvp7gRhrf/open-philanthropy-is-seeking-proposals-for-outreach-projects |
# "If and Only If" Should Be Spelled "Ifeff"
*If and only if* is an important logical concept, useful in many contexts, both mathematical and nonmathematical. Unfortunately, "if and only if" is also an unwieldy five-syllable phrase. Mathematicians have solved this problem by shortening it to "[iff](https://en.wikipedi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JuLJbayPQDhZuPXHa/if-and-only-if-should-be-spelled-ifeff |
# Bayesianism versus conservatism versus Goodhart
Key argument: if we use a non-Bayesian conservative approach, such as a minimum over different utility functions, then we better have a good reason as to why that would work. But if we have that reason, we can use it to make the whole thing into a Bayesian mix, which c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFZ64igiNNwiLHaYk/bayesianism-versus-conservatism-versus-goodhart |
# Longtermism vs short-termism for personal life extension
**Created**: 2021-07-15 | **Updated**: 2021-07-16 | **Acknowledgement for feedback**: [Emanuele Ascani](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/emanuele-ascani), Haydn Thomas-Rose | **x-post**: [LessDead](https://lessdead.com/longtermism-and-short-termism-for-personal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6XsPLFd9wqb2dmGF/longtermism-vs-short-termism-for-personal-life-extension |
# Large corporations can unilaterally ban/tax ransomware payments via bets
After the [Colonial Pipeline ransomware
attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack), the
idea of [banning ransomware
payments](https://www.econlib.org/is-a-ban-on-corporate-ransom-payments-feasible/)
has become mo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C7M5QiLe4EkdPQKNo/large-corporations-can-unilaterally-ban-tax-ransomware |
# (2009) Shane Legg - Funding safe AGI
Above is a link to an interesting blog post by Shane Legg. It was written before he started DeepMind, and he earns a hell of a lot of points for accomplishing a lot of the insanely ambitious goals set out in the post.
This part is particularly interesting:
> The impression I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/etEKu7taPPv2hwLwi/2009-shane-legg-funding-safe-agi |
# Reflecting on building my own tools from scratch and 'inventing on principle'
*This is a linkpost for https://amirbolous.com/posts/build*
- [Introduction](#introduction)
- [Tools and Products](#tools-and-products)
- [Dogma](#dogma)
- [Building is Empowering](#building-is-empowering)
- [Closing Thoughts](#closing-tho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vNcQQfeij4aBcFLtJ/reflecting-on-building-my-own-tools-from-scratch-and |
# The Mountaineer's Fallacy
I'm sure this has a name, but I can't remember it. So I have given it a new name. The Mountaineer's Fallacy.
The Mountaineer's Fallacy is the suggestion that climbing Mount Everest is a good start on a trip to the moon.
In one sense, you are making progress on a key metric: distance fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iiqBfjBfPqP6yjrwt/the-mountaineer-s-fallacy |
# A model of decision-making in the brain (the short version)
(UPDATE: For a revised-and-improved version of this post, see [this later post I wrote (especially Section 6.2.2)](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qNZSBqLEh4qLRqgWW/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-6-big-picture-of-motivation#6_2_2_Quick_run_through).)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5duEqhAhurT8tCyr/a-model-of-decision-making-in-the-brain-the-short-version |
# Book Review: The Signal and the Noise
*This is a compressed version of a* [*blog post*](https://samenright.com/2021/02/02/the-signal-and-the-noise-book-review/) *I wrote on my personal website.*
[*The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction*](https://www.amazon.co.uk/Signal-Noise-Art-Science-Predict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7QDABBNu5dFpuyKPP/book-review-the-signal-and-the-noise |
# One Study, Many Results (Matt Clancy)
*I didn't see this post, its author, or the study involved elsewhere on LW, so I'm crossposting the content. Let me know if this is redundant, and I'll take it down.*
Summary
=======
This post looks at cases where teams of researchers all began with the same data, then used it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdrwX5zgStKDTRxpR/one-study-many-results-matt-clancy |
# Happy paths and the planning fallacy
The other day at work I was talking with my boss about a project I am working on. He wanted an update on what tasks are remaining. I spent some time walking him through this. At the end, he asked, "So... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpcuTYNygRw7CJAfZ/happy-paths-and-the-planning-fallacy |
# Compositionality: SQL and Subways
Programmers like to talk about a concept called *compositionality*,
which is the idea that programs and code should
consist of small, modular components that fit together cleanly.
This property is considered almost a holy grail of software design,
but there's not a lot of clarit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TcwavPJ2Qivcdphfd/compositionality-sql-and-subways |
# Preparing for ambition
When I was in college, I decided that I wanted to spend my life starting startups. It seemed like the perfect "career path". If things really work out for you, the reward is billions of dollars. Awesome. But here's the really cool part: even if you "fail", like that [Seinfeld episode](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24REWZC6GLoMyvpvs/preparing-for-ambition |
# Some thoughts on David Roodman’s GWP model and its relation to AI timelines
[Cross posted from the [EA forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HgbAmhaAhky8SxPiv/some-thoughts-on-david-roodman-s-gwp-model-and-its-relation).]
I’ve been working on a [report](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/could-advanced-ai-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tpKuNNRF8Mdpfx7QD/some-thoughts-on-david-roodman-s-gwp-model-and-its-relation-1 |
# In search of benevolence (or: what should you get Clippy for Christmas?)
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/07/19/in-search-of-benevolence-or-what-should-you-get-clippy-for-christmas/))
Suppose that you aspire to promote the welfare of others in a roughly impartial way, at least i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oXQDcyXJpMQTbaTMS/in-search-of-benevolence-or-what-should-you-get-clippy-for |
# Book review: The Explanation of Ideology
Book review: The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structure and Social
Systems, by [Emmanuel
Todd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Todd).
What features distinguish countries that embraced communism from
countries that resisted?
Why did Islam spread rapidly for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LvRL8442Cp7An6uqd/book-review-the-explanation-of-ideology |
# Pi Sound Box
In an effort to reduce clutter, simplify setup, and avoid damaging my gear, I've packaged up my [whistle synth](https://www.jefftk.com/whistle-synth) and [rhythm stage setup](https://www.jefftk.com/p/rhythm-stage-setup-v3) into a box:
[](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FEPBrQqoKm9TrXoFn/pi-sound-box |
# An examination of Metaculus' resolved AI predictions and their implications for AI timelines
*Cross-posted from the* [*EA forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vtiyjgKDA3bpK9E4i/an-examination-of-metaculus-resolved-ai-predictions-and)
*Edit: I was contacted by the author of many unresolved AI questions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJ6wXoBqxJjHhPLLu/an-examination-of-metaculus-resolved-ai-predictions-and |
# Working With Monsters
*This is a fictional piece based on* [*Sort By Controversial*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/10/30/sort-by-controversial/)*. You do not need to read that first, though it may make Scissor Statements feel more real. Content Warning: semipolitical. Views expressed by characters in this piece ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o4cgvYmNZnfS4xhxL/working-with-monsters |
# Punishing the good
Should you punish people for wronging others, or for making the wrong call about wronging others?
For example:
1. A newspaper sends me annoying emails all the time, but suppose that empirically if they didn’t behave like this, they would get markedly fewer subscribers, and may not survive. And ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZwQ2rhLybgvtMJAFq/punishing-the-good |
# Funds are available to support LessWrong groups, among others
(Cross-posted from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nTuvo4ThBbX5c7pL2/funds-are-available-to-fund-non-ea-branded-groups))
This post was written by Buck and Claire Zabel but it’s written in Buck’s voice, and “I” here refers to Buck... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WAkvnzxvNfeTJL4BT/funds-are-available-to-support-lesswrong-groups-among-others |
# Is there a reasonable reading according to which Baric, Shi et al 2015 isn't gain-of-function research?
From the [A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence](https://doi.org/10.1038/nm.3985) by Baric, Shi et al:
> Wild-type SARS-CoV (Urbani), mouse-adapted SARS-CoV (MA1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qiwkBtFAegmfdKTFo/is-there-a-reasonable-reading-according-to-which-baric-shi |
# My Marriage Vows
I'm getting married. We decided to take marriage vows very seriously, and write vows that we will be fully committed to uphold. These vows are going to be a commitment no weaker than any promise I ever made or any contract I ever signed. Therefore, it is very important to avoid serious errors in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PySEyxTKh5hzDeK9y/my-marriage-vows |
# Why is Kleros valued so low?
Kleros provides a system that allows smart contract in natural language to be written by letting randomly drafted juries evaluate the contract. It seems to me that this principle is incredibly powerful for all sorts of real world applications whether it's arbitrating the outcome of a pre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NKXGeAt7zsoE6Js5A/why-is-kleros-valued-so-low |
# Reward splintering for AI design
$\newcommand{\m}[1]{{\mathcal{#1}}}$
This post will look at how [model splintering](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnxkAiGcQpfErjHYT/underlying-model-of-an-imperfect-morphism) can be used by an AI to extend human-specified rewards beyond its training environment, and beyond the ran... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xoQhHxgwdHvWhj4P4/reward-splintering-for-ai-design |
# The shoot-the-moon strategy
Sometimes you can solve a problem by intentionally making it "worse" to such an extreme degree that the problem goes away. Real-world examples:
* I accidentally spilled cooking oil on my shoe, forming an unsightly stain. When soap and scrubbing failed to remove it, I instead smeared oil ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wWSDwR4Fq2gvnWWJA/the-shoot-the-moon-strategy |
# Randomized Zettelkasten Test
### Motivation and Method
I read the book *How to Take Smart Notes* a couple years ago and have tried to keep my notes together in a Zettelkasten ever since. I currently use Obsidian, which contains 2500 individual notes collected over two or three years - some abstract to encourage bei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsYWBrkeq7ScBn9rA/randomized-zettelkasten-test |
# Ask Not "How Are You Doing?"
Like the human body, English conversation retains certain vestigial features. Some of these are malignant, in that they impede lively discourse. Here I address the most common and damaging example I know of: the phrase, “How are you doing?”
This is a staple greeting. Throughout most of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gq6vdjrPkxrt7ZZbK/ask-not-how-are-you-doing |
# ($1000 bounty) How effective are marginal vaccine doses against the covid delta variant?
UPDATE: the bounty has now been awarded as follows:
* $425 to Connor_Flexman
* $300 to Josh Jacobson
* $150 to JenniferRM/johnswentworth
* $75 to ChristianKl
* $50 to SoerenMind
===
Since I got vaccinated I’ve sta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBGzge5i4hfbaQZWy/usd1000-bounty-how-effective-are-marginal-vaccine-doses |
# Handicapping competitive games
\[epistemic status: thing I thought of while falling asleep and just wrote up\]
Suppose you’re playing a competitive game. By that, I mean a game where there are multiple players, and each is trying to win by beating the others. An example of a game like this is Go. But, if you think ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bASxnkwCaRnT2jmvD/handicapping-competitive-games |
# Fire Law Incentives
Pacific Gas & Electric is planning to spend [$15-30b](https://www.npr.org/2021/07/21/1019058925/utility-bury-power-lines-wildfires-california) to bury power lines. I see why they're doing it: PG&E equipment sparked some of the worst fires in California history, including the 2018 [Camp Fire](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4poYqwywDGQ9vSCXh/fire-law-incentives |
# Covid 7/22: Error Correction
Delta has taken over, and cases are rising rapidly, with a 58% rise this week after a 65% rise last week. There’s no reason to expect this to turn around in the near term.
[Three weeks ago, in One Last Scare](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/06/17/covid-6-17-one-last-scare/), I ran th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xv65gxgT4Am39ano/covid-7-22-error-correction |
# The Walking Dead
Information asymmetry is a funny thing.
A while ago I created a [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/) asking "***Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?"**. *Currently the odds acc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2fmK9D5zrTsjgYuM/the-walking-dead |
# Progress, Stagnation, & Collapse
The Progress Equation
=====================
In [1960: The Year the Singularity was Cancelled](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYrF8rXFYwPqnfxTp/1960-the-year-the-singularity-was-cancelled), Scott Alexander discusses what I'll call *the progress equation.* The equation states that te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RgyN8vquSM8vRibxn/progress-stagnation-and-collapse |
# Re-Define Intent Alignment?
I think Evan's [Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) is quite clever; more well-optimized than it may at first appear. However, do think there are a couple of things which don't work as well as th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fkaJLzRiEr2hmSDi/re-define-intent-alignment |
# A Guide for Productivity
This is a cross-post from my [personal blog](http://mariushobbhahn.com/).
**What is this post about?**
----------------------------
While there are tons of guides out there that promise to increase your productivity 10x overnight most of them seem full of empty promises and don't even defi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3QDAqSQFi4BpHxQK/a-guide-for-productivity-2 |
# Decision Duels
(Crosspost from [my more casual blog](https://threeleaper.blogspot.com/2021/05/decision-dueling.html).)
Decision duels are a feature of *David's Sling*, a novel by Marc Stiegler about technology, nuclear suppression and human rationality. They're used as an organizational means of decision-making, no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pfCFcwgyNKmcaiynQ/decision-duels |
# Hypergames 101
(Status: This may be a relatively well-known topic, but [apart from a single footnote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tdu3tGT4i24qcLESh/equilibrium-and-prior-selection-problems-in-multipolar-1) I haven't found it mentioned here. For now I would rate my numeracy below the average person I'd expect to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6C4XMQTGGTK8isSh6/hypergames-101 |
# [AN #157]: Measuring misalignment in the technology underlying Copilot
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cyTP4ZMnN6RFu9L62/an-157-measuring-misalignment-in-the-technology-underlying |
# How is low-latency phasic dopamine so fast?
*(Quick poorly-researched blog post, probably only of interest to neuroscientists.)*
There’s a paper [“What is reinforced by phasic dopamine signals?” (Redgrave, Gurney, Reynolds 2008)](https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165017307002226). I was interested in i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AKBzhvnSLrbgAehLw/how-is-low-latency-phasic-dopamine-so-fast |
# Delta variant: we should probably be re-masking
Like you, I thought I saw the light at the end of the tunnel. It first appeared when vaccines started rolling out a few months back, and got brighter when my family got their vaccine cards signed. It got still brighter as I signed up for my first dose (#ModernaManiacs)... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nf8EbepFNqDqkJnb9/delta-variant-we-should-probably-be-re-masking |
# AXRP Episode 10 - AI’s Future and Impacts with Katja Grace
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yalAfcqELls&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=10)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xbABZRxoSTAnsf8os/axrp-episode-10-ai-s-future-and-impacts-with-katja-grace |
# Housing Without Street Parking: Implemented
In 2017, [I wrote](https://www.jefftk.com/p/housing-without-street-parking):
> What if, in places like Somerville where all parking is already by-permit-only, we added a new category of housing unit, one that didn't come with any rights to street parking?
It turns out th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uE6kausjZwGfdBeEb/housing-without-street-parking-implemented |
# Believing vs understanding
Every year before the NBA draft, I like to watch film on all of the prospects and predict how good everyone will be. And every year, there ends up being a few guys who I am way higher on than everyone else. Never fails. In 2020 it was Precious Achiuwa. In 2019 it was Bol Bol. In 2018 it wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/spDeJvDMNjT2PgYgN/believing-vs-understanding |
# Social media: designed to be bad for you & for society
_After writing this, I wasn't happy enough with the result to post it. However, reading [spkoc's comment][5] on a recent COVID update made me think that I should share it because it seems as relevant as it did when I typed it out._
This post is my second attemp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pSavwiMPJWCd3arxR/social-media-designed-to-be-bad-for-you-and-for-society |
# A Contamination Theory of the Obesity Epidemic
This is a summary of [a paper](https://osf.io/x4fk3/) that I found open in a browser tab; I don't recall where I came across it. I think it's a nice paper, but it's also 63 pages long and seemed worth a synopsis for those who wouldn't otherwise tackle it.
Scott conclud... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6miu9BsKdoAi72nkL/a-contamination-theory-of-the-obesity-epidemic |
# Failing safely is the anomaly
It's hard to view the Flat Earth Society as a civilizational success. I can't understand how their minds can believe this in a world where telephones can cross time zones. But compare it to Boko Haram. They believe that the world is flat and that water doesn't evaporate (Allah creates t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JwfkYzTehmGsizvuL/failing-safely-is-the-anomaly |
# What are some triggers that prompt you to do a Fermi estimate, or to pull up a spreadsheet and make a simple/rough quantitative model?
I'm currently viscerally feeling the power of rough quantitative modeling, after trying it on a personal problem to get an order of magnitude estimate and finding that having a concr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yHuuNhqyrxszo7GGp/what-are-some-triggers-that-prompt-you-to-do-a-fermi |
# My Productivity Tips and Systems
**\[Read bolded words to skim\]**
Below are a bunch of tips, systems, and devices for improving productivity. I don't mean to claim I know a lot about productivity—I think there is likely a lot of useful advice I am missing. If you are new to thinking about productivity, a lot of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4jpqXPj3eaDXwqi7F/my-productivity-tips-and-systems |
# Academic Rationality Research
There are now at least two academic research groups on rationality, in the sense we use the word in here, in Germany that seem to be little known in the US rationality community. The point of this post is telling you they exist if you didn't already know.
There's the [Rationality Enhan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ADpQqe9uCuzyrfG6L/academic-rationality-research |
# Come Build Affordable Housing!
With the new Affordable Housing Overlay District ( [ordinance 2020-27](https://library.municode.com/ma/somerville/ordinances/zoning_ordinances?nodeId=1059787)) here in Somerville, affordable housing construction can be very profitable. For example, below I estimate someone could spend ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wH4Mnp3YnvkKPXJaT/come-build-affordable-housing |
# When Arguing Definitions is Arguing Decisions
(*epistemic status: experimental new format! Optimized for memetic power. Fun and useful refactorings of classic ideas about language.*)
(*note: this post was originally made as a slide deck and lives as a pdf* [*here*](https://theinexactsciences.github.io/docs/Arguing%... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7H7WAdZcq7EcwpPxg/when-arguing-definitions-is-arguing-decisions |
# Can I teach myself scientific creativity?
Textbooks and classes are more than just curated collections of established knowledge. They also suggest what your *goal* should be:
* Read the textbook and go to lecture
* Take notes, ask questions when you feel confused, and try to understand everything
* Solve the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M7Lh5yRevGJokBH5w/can-i-teach-myself-scientific-creativity |
# When writing triggers memory reconsolidation
Last night I read the post [Working With Monsters](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o4cgvYmNZnfS4xhxL/working-with-monsters). My response? "Holy shit. This post is amazing and I needed to hear it."
The idea in the post is that you have to be able to work with people who y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2gaZ9FygZxWpHexoq/when-writing-triggers-memory-reconsolidation |
# Is there a theoretical upper limit on the R0 of Covid variants?
Looking at the Wikipedia article on [basic reproduction number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number), it looks like the most contagious virus (as of right now) is measles with an ***R*****~0~** (high estimate) of 18. I'm wondering if... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mXBBHAEXj2JyPC6Dt/is-there-a-theoretical-upper-limit-on-the-r0-of-covid |
# What does knowing the heritability of a trait tell me in practice?
**The concept of** [**heritability**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability) **gets misunderstood a lot, so there are several articles discussing what it** ***doesn't*** **mean. But reading through all of them leaves me confused about what it** ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YpsGjsfT93aCkRHPh/what-does-knowing-the-heritability-of-a-trait-tell-me-in |
# Wanted: Foom-scared alignment research partner
Hi, my name is Mack Gallagher, I'm 20 years old, I have ZERO familiarity with computer architecture or \[math or computer science technical jargon\] \[although I'm OK at reasoning\], I have never attended a prestigious university, and I currently live in a 15,000-person... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c4XaySCCSDYvMv4jm/wanted-foom-scared-alignment-research-partner |
# Refactoring Alignment (attempt #2)
[I've been](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7fkaJLzRiEr2hmSDi/re-define-intent-alignment) poking at Evan's [Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) His post gives two separate pictures (the o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vayxfTSQEDtwhPGpW/refactoring-alignment-attempt-2 |
# Neuroscience things that confuse me right now
*(Quick poorly-written update, probably only of interest to neuroscientists.)*
*(Update 5 months later: For most of these things, I feel like I've graduated from "I'm confused" to "I think I understand this, but my ideas might be wrong, especially since I haven't writte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6wCyvQbsPDXJf2inX/neuroscience-things-that-confuse-me-right-now |
# A conversation about cooking, science, and creativity
My girlfriend is a creative cook, and worked in the Portland food industry - renowned for its innovation by small kitchens - for ten years. I'm interested in creativity in scientific research. Where does it come from?
Furthermore, what is the relationship betwee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3wicMoKw4tXPsBi4S/a-conversation-about-cooking-science-and-creativity |
# DeepMind: Generally capable agents emerge from open-ended play
EDIT: Also see [paper](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/open-ended-learning-leads-to-generally-capable-agents) and [results compilation video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTmL7jwFfdw)!
> Today, we published "[Open-Ended Learning Leads to G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mTGrrX8SZJ2tQDuqz/deepmind-generally-capable-agents-emerge-from-open-ended |
# Black ravens and red herrings
The [raven paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox) is a dilemma in inductive logic posed by Carl Gustav Hempel. It starts by noting that the statement "All ravens are black" can be expressed in the form of an implication: "If something is a raven, then it is black." This s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kynWubc3Hsa4aztHK/black-ravens-and-red-herrings |
# How much do variations in diet quality determine individual productivity?
A few days ago Jim Babcock [stated](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igEogGD9TAgAeAM7u/jimrandomh-s-shortform?commentId=rkMMdRdAqrKyzdv6a)
> I care about nutrition because I believe it has a very large, very underappreciated impact on individu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oT92HuWhNrmg2ZdG6/how-much-do-variations-in-diet-quality-determine-individual |
# Delta Strain: Fact Dump and Some Policy Takeaways
*Curation notice by Raemon: Curated. It seems really important to figure out how to deal with the Delta variant, and how to interface with covid variants longterm. I appreciated this post for:*
1. *Striking a good balance of presenting current facts on the ground*
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9xd5ArGud8897q5on/delta-strain-fact-dump-and-some-policy-takeaways |
# Risk Premiums vs Prediction Markets
aka **Why (some) market forecasts are biased and what can we do about them?**
tldr; When you care about an outcome, it will skew the odds you'll bet at. (To insure against bad outcomes). When everyone cares about an outcome, it skews the market odds.
People (including [mysel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jA3Tvxh2jFcFBzqR/risk-premiums-vs-prediction-markets |
# An Apprentice Experiment in Python Programming, Part 2
*[Epistemic status: me trying to recall what happened in a 4.5-hour pair-programming session, during which I was focused on solving problems. This post was reconstructed from scratch code files, written messages (the session was over voice call) and my python sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jkaCF3yrfKvFQL4ym/an-apprentice-experiment-in-python-programming-part-2 |
# Do we have a term for the issue with quantifying policy effect Scott Alexander stumbled on multiple times?
In [Things I learned Writing The Lockdown Post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/things-i-learned-writing-the-lockdown), Scott Alexander describes a really tricky issue when trying to quantify the effects ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rm5FdDz8rv9kiqdSQ/do-we-have-a-term-for-the-issue-with-quantifying-policy |
# How much compute was used to train DeepMind's generally capable agents?
I'm talking about [these agents](https://www.lesswrong.com/out?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdeepmind.com%2Fblog%2Farticle%2Fgenerally-capable-agents-emerge-from-open-ended-play) ([LW thread here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mTGrrX8SZJ2tQDuqz/deepmind-g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KaPaTdpLggdMqzdyo/how-much-compute-was-used-to-train-deepmind-s-generally |
# How to bayesian update on multiple covid tests?
I'm curious how I should think about the risk of hanging out with a friend (who is 2x pfizer vaccinated). It seems like a good opportunity for bayesian thinking in the real world, but I'm really unclear how to think about it.
Info: he tested positive on 4 UK late... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m9dFuGGs5pEgLr6u2/how-to-bayesian-update-on-multiple-covid-tests |
# Did they or didn't they learn tool use?
[DeepMind claims that their recent agents learned tool use](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mTGrrX8SZJ2tQDuqz/deepmind-generally-capable-agents-emerge-from-open-ended); in particular, they learned to build ramps to access inaccessible areas *even though none of their training ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8GoynCn4jaXKsiDky/did-they-or-didn-t-they-learn-tool-use |
# Gaming Incentives
I played chess for a while earlier this year. I never played or watched any sports when I was younger, so sport forums were weird to me. One thing that kept coming up led to a long meandering stream of thought I tried in vain to edit together into a coherent narrative. It’s probably easy to gues... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pbh5PCwuYYCYDYTS4/gaming-incentives |
# Slack Has Positive Externalities For Groups
You ever have one of those group projects where you all need to find a time to meet, but some or all of the group members have packed schedules, so you pull out the whenisgood and it turns out the only times that work are 2-2:15 pm on Thursday or 6:30-7:30 am on Tuesday?
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3qX2GipDuCq5jstMG/slack-has-positive-externalities-for-groups |
# Covid 7/29: You Play to Win the Game
Few things warm my heart more than playing to win the game. Few things sadden me more than observing someone not playing to win the game.
Usually, that means they are playing a different game instead, whether they admit it or not, and whether or not they know it themselves. The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JiSwpipNX2avGEbcJ/covid-7-29-you-play-to-win-the-game |
# [AN #158]: Should we be optimistic about generalization?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/79qCdyfGxWNKbH8zk/an-158-should-we-be-optimistic-about-generalization |
# Brief thoughts on inefficient writing systems
A phonemic language is one where how you write is very similar to how things sound. Essentially, if you know how to say something and you know the alphabet, then you can write/read the same thing. Serbian is an example of a phonemic language. A non-phonemic language is o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PuXzQxXLJt765g46G/brief-thoughts-on-inefficient-writing-systems |
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