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# What weird treatments should people who lost their taste from COVID try?
My friend had COVID in September 2020 and never got her taste back. What low-risk random things should she try doing to get it back? Recommendations need not be backed by anything stronger than “a friend of a friend heard…” or “I saw it on TikT... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n2uBEoYNi85vEtTJG/what-weird-treatments-should-people-who-lost-their-taste |
# Prediction-based-Medicine instead of E̵v̵i̵d̵e̵n̵c̵e̵ ̵b̵a̵s̵e̵d̵ ̵M̵e̵d̵i̵c̵i̵n̵e̵ Authority-based-Medicine
This article explores how evidence-based Medicine currently works in 2021 with ivermectin as a case study. I don't make any argument for or against ivermectin but look at the deeper issues about how we decide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bB4jvyrcfrsZEwQtA/prediction-based-medicine-instead-of-e-v-i-d-e-n-c-e-b-a-s-e |
# Uncertainty can Defuse Logical Explosions
### Principle of Explosion
The principle of explosion goes as follows: if we assume contradictory axioms then we can derive everything. Numbers prefixed with A are axioms/assumptions, those prefixed with D are derived from those.
**A1 **$P$
**A2 **$\neg P$
$$**D2 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q5um4RBHaF6gHfmLm/uncertainty-can-defuse-logical-explosions |
# Cherry Pit Storage
When eating cherries, what do you do with the pits? You don't want to swallow them, but spitting them out one by one is inconvenient. The answer: use your upper lip.
Eat the cherry as normal, separating the pit with your teeth and tongue as usual, but once the pit is free use your tongue to tuck ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8CyCzGgcYQgQnAk9g/cherry-pit-storage |
# Cognitive Impacts of Cocaine Use
This post summarizes [The Long-term Effects of Cocaine Use on Cognitive Functioning: A Systematic Critical Review](https://scihubtw.tw/10.1016/j.bbr.2018.04.005). The punchline is:
> The current evidence does not support the view that chronic cocaine use is associated with broad co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bQyvkn3Kj4kjNtbr8/cognitive-impacts-of-cocaine-use |
# Torture vs Specks: Sadist version
Suppose that instead of the classic version of torture vs specks where the choice is between specks in the eyes of 3^^^3 people or one person tortured for 50 years, there are no specks but rather there are 3^^^3 people who just want the one guy to be tortured. (No particular reason,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NSCXzvbknB5mqk87M/torture-vs-specks-sadist-version |
# Destroying Insecurity and Boosting Confidence Through Your Interests and Values
I have hypothesis that diversifying your interests, values and desires makes you much less insecure and anxious while boosting your confidence.
**Personal Example and How Idea Came to Being**
In recent months I had huge increase in my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2B4DHS7FniqfyC7m4/destroying-insecurity-and-boosting-confidence-through-your |
# Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021
Highlights
----------
* [Biatob](https://biatob.com/) is a new site to embed betting odds into one’s writing
* [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/), a [CFTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Trading_Commission)-regulated prediction market, launches in the US
* [Malta]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o5gy4judMXPGHgwFu/forecasting-newsletter-july-2021 |
# Who decides what should be worked on?
I work at a tech startup, and part of my job is to talk to job candidates and answer their questions about the company. One of the questions I often get asked is, "How do prioritization decisions get made? Who decides what should be worked on and what shouldn't be? How are th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AbbDMcR4dGxy7AobR/who-decides-what-should-be-worked-on |
# What made the UK COVID-19 case count drop?
According to [Google COVID-19 data](https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+19+uk&client=firefox-b-d&sxsrf=ALeKk01zPpaRGAaoyziHJbv85qe7x5utpA%3A1627908740876&ei=hOoHYYnrNI7XkwXBqr3wBw&oq=covid+19+uk&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iuetD3rZEfZwg2hs8/what-made-the-uk-covid-19-case-count-drop |
# How Many Affordable Units?
With [last week's post on affordable housing](https://www.jefftk.com/p/come-build-affordable-housing) I was wondering: if we did build out all the Somerville lots zoned for four stories (MR4) to be seven stories of affordable housing, how much housing would that be? I count 254 lots zoned ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LGq2xbogBSzXeijby/how-many-affordable-units |
# The Myth of the Myth of the Lone Genius
*“Our species is the only creative species, and it has only one creative instrument, the individual mind and spirit of man. Nothing was ever created by two men. There are no good collaborations, whether in music, in art, in poetry, in mathematics, in philosophy. Once the mirac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cnmfKKaQowpDWc3h9/the-myth-of-the-myth-of-the-lone-genius |
# What was my mistake evaluating risk in this situation?
At the start of the pandemic, I heard that Covid was likely to be a problem. I didn't pay much attention, because I remembered the Swine Flu "pandemic", and Covid was getting less attention than Swine Flu did at the time. I also knew that the media has a strong ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jbdgspq7PSZokhHjq/what-was-my-mistake-evaluating-risk-in-this-situation |
# How should my timelines influence my career choice?
TL;DR: Recent progress in AI has tentatively shortened my expected timelines of human-level machine intelligence to something like 50% in the next 15 years. Conditional on that being a sensible timeline (feel free to disagree in the comments), how should that influ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cwoerjzjw7p2GFJPS/how-should-my-timelines-influence-my-career-choice |
# What does GPT-3 understand? Symbol grounding and Chinese rooms
*With thanks to Rebecca Gorman for helping develop these ideas and this post.*
# Tricking GPT-3
I recently pulled a mean trick on GPT-3. I gave it the following seed text to extend:
>These are the instructions to be followed by any person or algorithm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ns95FHkkzpjXh4x5Q/what-does-gpt-3-understand-symbol-grounding-and-chinese |
# LCDT, A Myopic Decision Theory
The looming shadow of deception
===============================
Deception encompasses many fears around AI Risk. Especially once a human-like or superhuman level of competence is reached, deception becomes impossible to detect and potentially pervasive. That’s worrying because [conver... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y76durQHrfqwgwM5o/lcdt-a-myopic-decision-theory |
# Book Review: Scientific Freedom by Don Braben
What if tech stagnation, declining growth rates, and the near-inevitable seeming collapse of the West are all because we got worried a few scientists would run off with our tax dollars?
That’s the broad thesis behind *Scientific Freedom: The Elixir of Civilization.* Pu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LcLwECxpxnerjtXtj/book-review-scientific-freedom-by-don-braben |
# What's the status of third vaccine doses?
People seem to think that getting a third mRNA vaccine dose, or "booster shot", substantially increases immunity after 4ish months from your second dose.
* Is it currently "illegal" to get one, or is it just the policy of all current pharmacies and vaccine distributors to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmDDztkpLicy7wsxH/what-s-the-status-of-third-vaccine-doses |
# Curing insanity with malaria
Sometimes the history of medicine is very, very surreal. For example, consider that in 1927, a physician named Julius Wagner-Jauregg received the Nobel Prize in medicine, for...deliberately infecting his patients with malaria. As a treatment for psychosis.
This often *worked*.
Well, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AH3iGfz4ArJnXEEYs/curing-insanity-with-malaria |
# What psychology studies are most important to the rationalist worldview?
The importance of cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and evolutionary psychology to rationalist projects are no secret. The sequences begin with an introduction to cognitive biases and heuristics for example. I am an amateur researcher of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7wARwyto6pXP9nhif/what-psychology-studies-are-most-important-to-the |
# Garrabrant and Shah on human modeling in AGI
This is an edited transcript of a conversation between Scott Garrabrant (MIRI) and Rohin Shah (DeepMind) about whether researchers should focus more on approaches to AI alignment that don’t require highly capable AI systems to do much human modeling. CFAR’s Eli Tyre facil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wap8sSDoiigrJibHA/garrabrant-and-shah-on-human-modeling-in-agi |
# Decision-Making Training for Software Engineering
I recently read [this post](https://www.shadowboxtraining.com/news/2021/07/23/observations-on-nine-months-of-decision-making-training/) that discusses the author’s experience leading military decision-making trainings for ROTC cadets during the pandemic. I’m going to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TXAPCvKcNToh3Dstg/decision-making-training-for-software-engineering |
# Analysis of World Records in Speedrunning [LINKPOST]
\[this is a linkpost to [Analysis of World Records in Speedrunning](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hgnVxyjR-EbYT6QDVRAlN87GjXmUDH8M12USwLODrp4/edit#heading=h.xc9ozl9msw64)\]
ETA: a more recent analysis can be found [here](https://epochai.org/blog/power-laws-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nhjaegqWxbBhiqMGS/analysis-of-world-records-in-speedrunning-linkpost |
# Contribution-Adjusted Utility Maximization Funds: An Early Proposal
> Right now in Effective Altruism (or Rationality), we have a few donor funds with particular focus areas. In this post I propose a new type of fund that’s instead focused on maximizing the combined utility functions of its particular donors. The fu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qi6HS7Aw9phcKttMs/contribution-adjusted-utility-maximization-funds-an-early |
# [AN #159]: Building agents that know how to experiment, by training on procedurally generated games
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zvWqPmQasssaAWkrj/an-159-building-agents-that-know-how-to-experiment-by |
# Value loading in the human brain: a worked example
**UPDATE MARCH 2022: I later revised and improved this post—see** [**\[Intro to brain-like-AGI safety\] 7. From hardcoded drives to foresighted plans: A worked example**](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/zXibERtEWpKuG5XAC/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-7-from-ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iMM6dvHzco6jBMFMX/value-loading-in-the-human-brain-a-worked-example |
# Should doctors be neutral?
**Medical professionals providing humanitarian aid are divided over whether to hold to medical confidentiality and political neutrality or to speak out about the atrocities they witness.**
*\[Note: this is not written as a typical Lesswrong post, and was part of a challenge to write some... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BvXmqczhuvqgMADxi/should-doctors-be-neutral |
# Art Meet
It has been said that choir is one of the best community onramps because it creates a way for people to appear in ratspace without the events being About ratspace. But this only works if you happen to sing. So, perhaps there should be more such things about more such activities. I have decided to try a f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Pdjz3qkKthEyNWqJz/art-meet |
# What do we know about vaccinating children?
In Germany, the BioNTech vaccine has been approved for children:
> At the end of May, the Comirnaty mRNA vaccine developed by BioNTech / Pfizer was approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) as the first COVID-19 vaccine in this age group for children and adolescents... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rnQrNP3rvHtE6LjRn/what-do-we-know-about-vaccinating-children |
# How to get mRNA after J&J
The [viral vector vaccines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Adenovirus_vector_vaccines) ([J&J](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janssen_COVID-19_vaccine), [AstraZeneca](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine)) are much better than nothing, even... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dfm6LA9m8kapZwwdv/how-to-get-mrna-after-j-and-j |
# Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Potential
This is a translation of Chapter 5 of *The Art of War* by Sunzi. No English sources were used.
---
> 孙子曰：凡治众如治寡，分数是也；斗众如斗寡，形名是也；三军之众，可使必受敌而无败者，奇正是也；兵之所加，如以碫投卵者，虚实是也。
To command the many as if commanding the few; to combat the many as if combating the few; the three armies can re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A8NmoazajzPBhkZgB/sunzi-s-methods-of-war-potential |
# Training Better Rationalists?
I was recently listening to a podcast discussion that included two people that had been involved in military special operations units -- one in the Navy SEALs and one in the US Army Special Forces. I was struck by their extremely high level of training, dedication, commitment, and overa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGByNBixNDWLgtyPf/training-better-rationalists |
# Why not more small, intense research teams?
Why are we not fostering more teams of say 2-5 people that
a) work full-time on the same or closely related problems
b) live together or very close
c) spend most of their work time collaborating in-person
?
I'm aware of student groups etc. but the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RdCb8EGEEdWbwvqcp/why-not-more-small-intense-research-teams |
# Two AI-risk-related game design ideas
I have silly fantasies of these games becoming enormously successful and noticeably increasing AI risk awareness & preparedness. If you are inspired by these ideas and want to make something like them a reality, you have my encouragement & I would be excited to discuss.
AI Tak... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qakRE5XTTmnrkJqgp/two-ai-risk-related-game-design-ideas |
# Covid 8/5: Much Ado About Nothing
Getting into the weeds on the CDC’s new guidance and scaremongering, and the study they cited as justifications, caused this week’s post to get rather long. That was necessary, but if you don’t need the details, by all means skip the sections in question in favor of this summary: Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LbdLFiZcwWcLvLa25/covid-8-5-much-ado-about-nothing |
# Traps of Formalization in Deconfusion
Introduction
============
The Depression of Deconfusion
-----------------------------
It had made perfect sense to you. It just clicked, and clarified so much. But now you’re doubting again. Suddenly, your argument doesn’t feel so tight. Or maybe you described it to some colle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEB3LrNxvMKFLGBSG/traps-of-formalization-in-deconfusion |
# What are some beautiful, rationalist sounds?
I loved [jacobjacob's post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGGGBR9sDgtLgMDaA/what-are-some-beautiful-rationalist-artworks) from which I've stolen the title, format, and some of the language of this post. The goal of this post is to build a comment section containing link... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgeDbThRftz3CM8jt/what-are-some-beautiful-rationalist-sounds |
# What are some good pieces on civilizational decay / civilizational collapse / weakening of societal fabric?
I've often heard rationalist and EAs talk about civilizational collapse, or civilizational decay: the set of trends whereby society seems to be becoming increasingly less functional, and might at some point f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S9iMaiMBKJZYPzaLN/what-are-some-good-pieces-on-civilizational-decay |
# Moving Away From The GPL
When I first got into open source, I published everything as [GPL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GNU_General_Public_License). It seemed only fair: I make my code freely available, but in exchange people who use it need to do the same. There is a major long-standing hole in the GPL, however, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/meb3T3QDs6CKZz8bY/moving-away-from-the-gpl |
# Thoughts on the Recent Haitian Assassination
# Thoughts on the Recent Haitian Assassination
As many of you know, a few weeks ago the president of Haiti Jovenel Moise was assassinated. This fascinating case is like a real life sherlock homes mystery complete with faked evidence, dead ends, tons of data, and plenty o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CM8JTHKvjBuGaJhBS/thoughts-on-the-recent-haitian-assassination |
# What 2026 looks like
This was written for the [Vignettes Workshop](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jusSrXEAsiqehBsmh/vignettes-workshop-ai-impacts).[\[1\]](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like-daniel-s-median-future?commentId=wL7FSxbsJs5EEZZEj) The goal is to write out a **detailed*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like |
# Research agenda update
*“Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter.” –DL Moody (allegedly)*
(Related: [Solving the whole AGI control problem, version 0.0001](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gfw7JMdKirxeSPiAk/solving-the-whole-agi-control-problem-version-0... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DkfGaZTgwsE7XZq9k/research-agenda-update |
# A map: "Global Catastrophic Risks of Scientific Experiments"
*I can't embed an image here for some reasons, may be it is too large, so here is a link on pdf*
[http://immortality-roadmap.com/risks%20of%20scientific%20experiments4.pdf](http://immortality-roadmap.com/risks%20of%20scientific%20experiments4.pdf) | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bPx3SjxcQbtY76ZbP/a-map-global-catastrophic-risks-of-scientific-experiments |
# Rage Against The MOOChine
*\[This was a review of Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course for a math and computer science guide I was making that ended up spiraling into a rant against MOOC's (massive open online course), I left it un-posted for a while but I think it remains mostly true what the problems are with the c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wc9Kjen6hs8m2vLgF/rage-against-the-moochine |
# Delta, Deaths, and Vaccinations
I've heard a lot about how the Delta variant is much more contagious and how vaccination both reduces transmission and dramatically reduces deaths, but I wanted to get a better sense of it by looking directly at the data. As with [last time](https://www.jefftk.com/p/second-wave-covid-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n4MNw7stZkt52xZZT/delta-deaths-and-vaccinations |
# Seeking Power is Convergently Instrumental in a Broad Class of Environments
Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents an unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcement learning, conflating "... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzeLSQ9nwDkPc4KNt/seeking-power-is-convergently-instrumental-in-a-broad-class |
# Applications for Deconfusing Goal-Directedness
Atonement for my sins towards deconfusion
=========================================
I have [argued](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/adKSWktLbxfihDANM/against-the-backward-approach-to-goal-directedness) that the deconfusion of goal-directedness should not follow wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ECPmgwwWBikTtdqXo/applications-for-deconfusing-goal-directedness |
# Book review: Knowledge and Decisions by Thomas Sowell
[Crossposted from equilibria.club](https://equilibria.club/book-review-knowledge-and-decisions-by-thomas-sowell/)
[Link to the book on Goodreads](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3042.Knowledge_And_Decisions)
One of the most famous and insightful pieces of e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tF4Ftx9b7pa3dEPBu/book-review-knowledge-and-decisions-by-thomas-sowell |
# The Future: Where are the Colors and the Sports?
One can imagine a variety of reasons for why “The Future” (as imagined in our collective consciousness) is blue and black, many of which are mundane an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z884PKD8dTscBr7Bz/the-future-where-are-the-colors-and-the-sports |
# Against "blankfaces"
(Content note: minor spoilers for _Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix_.)
Scott Aaronson writes about [blankfaces](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5675),
> anyone who enjoys wielding the power entrusted in them to make others miserable by acting like a cog in a broken machine, rath... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zcriHTKgKNehSSdyG/against-blankfaces |
# Great Negotiation MOOC on Coursera
Course: https://www.coursera.org/learn/negotiation
Tldr: If you're young and haven't studied negotiation, it's probably worth spending ~10hr engaging with this course when you get a chance.
The MOOC is based on the first course in Yale's MBA program apparently. He claims... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f7p2THdQadbAEJznb/great-negotiation-mooc-on-coursera |
# Goal-Directedness and Behavior, Redux
Beyond past confusions
======================
Over the last year, I [wrote](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/9pxcekdNjE7oNwvcC/goal-directedness-is-behavioral-not-structural) and thought many confused and confusing ideas on the relationship between goal-directedness of beha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YApiu7x3oTTzDgFFN/goal-directedness-and-behavior-redux |
# The Reductionist Trap
*This used to be called "Non-Reduction and Nonapples" but thanks to a comment by Slider I've realized this put the emphasis in the wrong place.*
[Selling nonapples](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mLZiWxWKZyaRgcn7/selling-nonapples) is a great piece about how critiquing a certain technique, o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dbG6kv5ixxRNNSNBh/the-reductionist-trap |
# When Most VNM-Coherent Preference Orderings Have Convergent Instrumental Incentives
This post explains a formal link between "what kinds of instrumental convergence exists?" and "what does VNM-coherence tell us about goal-directedness?". It turns out that VNM coherent preference orderings have the **same** statistic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LYxWrxram2JFBaeaq/when-most-vnm-coherent-preference-orderings-have-convergent |
# Framing Practicum: Stable Equilibrium
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what a stable equilibrium is, how to recognize stable equilibria in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find one. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
**Today... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jjsXqByQWYwu5tYXq/framing-practicum-stable-equilibrium |
# Combining two posts: Blankface (Scott Aa) and Is Science Slowing Down? (Scott Al)
(First time poster, hope this works. Will also be posting to complexityblog as well.)
Some papers result from taking two papers and combining them. Perhaps nobody else had read both of them so you can say something new! Or (looking ov... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5GJjnJBsxiFeSNqcL/combining-two-posts-blankface-scott-aa-and-is-science |
# Calculated Clairvoyance
In *Steven Universe*, there is a character called Sapphire who has the ability to see into the future. For the entirety of the show, it is presented to us as an innate ability which Sapphire can do naturally.
But in one of the final episodes of the show, Sapphire, while supposedly teaching a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mEzkGCgF9GEtcuKDR/calculated-clairvoyance |
# Implicature Conflation
For some reason, I keep thinking about what [General Semantics](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics.html) might be trying to get at. In my [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQrWd5jPZQtpH8f4v/fusion-and-equivocation-in-korzybski-s-general-semantics) on the subject,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RuFy5Gzz6LviXqcW4/implicature-conflation |
# Fermi Fingers
When doing Fermi estimates in my head, I sometimes lose track of powers of ten: _...that's three billion widgets, divided by fifty widgets per person is somewhat under a hundred million people, times $20 per person is somewhat under $2 billion... or, wait, did I drop a zero, should that have been somew... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLhHdWXPxgrAwPKqd/fermi-fingers |
# Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games
*\[cross-posted from my blog* [*Astral Codex Ten*](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/eight-hundred-slightly-poisoned-word)*\]*
In 2012, a Berkeley team found that indoor carbon dioxide had dramatic negative effects on cognition ([paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kxW6q5YdTGWh5sWby/eight-hundred-slightly-poisoned-word-games |
# Book Review: The Beginning of Infinity
*This is a* [*crosspost*](https://samenright.com/2021/08/09/book-review-the-beginning-of-infinity/) *from my personal website. Inspired by:* [*Naval*](https://nav.al/infinity)*,* [*If Sapiens Were a Blogpost*](https://neilkakkar.com/sapiens.html) *and Brett Hall’s* [*podcast*](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FyRyECG7YxvAF2QTF/book-review-the-beginning-of-infinity |
# Outline of Galef's "Scout Mindset"
Julia Galef's [*The Scout Mindset*](https://www.amazon.com/Scout-Mindset-People-Things-Clearly/dp/B07RP27XJP/) is superb.
For effective altruists, I think (based on the topic and execution) it's straightforwardly the #1 book you should use when you want to recruit new people to EA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFJ7vCjefBxnTchmG/outline-of-galef-s-scout-mindset |
# A Qualitative and Intuitive Explanation of Expected Value
Alice: Expected value is one of my favorite things in the world.
Bob: That involves math right?
Alice: Yeah.
Bob: And you use it in your daily life?
Alice: Yeah.
Bob: See I can't live life like that. I hate doing math. I prefer to just go with the flow.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LJArjH2h4TACfksaT/a-qualitative-and-intuitive-explanation-of-expected-value |
# The two-headed bacterium
*Cross-posted from* [*substack*](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/the-two-headed-bacterium)*.*
I like to see categories as fish nets we use to capture ideas. We classify things into categories like individuals, nation or species, and of course it is all arbitrary and doesn’t correspond to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHt3Sjrxx5jq7vYoh/the-two-headed-bacterium |
# Dopamine-supervised learning in mammals & fruit flies
*(Last revised: December 2024. See changelog at the bottom.)*
The backstory: Dopamine-supervised learning in mammals
======================================================
According to a well-known theory from the 1990s, dopamine signals in mammal brains can se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GnmLRerqNrP4CThn6/dopamine-supervised-learning-in-mammals-and-fruit-flies |
# For God's sake, Google it.
Anti-disclaimer: this is not an ad for Google. Feel free to use [DuckDuckGo](https://duckduckgo.com/) or whatever floats your boat.
Intro
-----
I’ve noticed a peculiar pattern in my blog posts: the more original *I* consider a post, the less interesting it seems to everyone else—at least... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XQwrF3iEgG4fewheK/for-god-s-sake-google-it |
# Interest in Biostasis: Much More Than You Wanted to Know. (Results from the ACX 2021 Biostasis/Cryonics Survey)
Motivation
----------
My motivation for doing this survey is simple: I’m continuously surprised that I’m one of the few people in the world who is obsessed with the problem of how to preserve people with ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LMXhBEtmZzpmAX633/interest-in-biostasis-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Halpern’s paper - A refutation of Cox’s theorem?
What implications does the paper “A Counter Example to Theorems of Cox and Fine” by J. Y. Halpern have for Cox’s theorem and probability theory as extended logic? This is the description of the paper:
“Cox's well-known theorem justifying the use of probability is sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAQDzke3TKfQh6mvZ/halpern-s-paper-a-refutation-of-cox-s-theorem |
# Purple Lipstick
Wilfred's date had stood him up four times out of four. Wilfred opened his notebook even though he never actually got any work done. He didn't know why he kept coming back to Nostalgia Cafe.
The entry bell jingled. Susan's suit was rumpled. She seemed tense, like a tiger with poachers encroaching o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxL9rgE2tk3StimAR/purple-lipstick |
# Dangerous Virtual Worlds
Once, I played a virtual reality game where robots attack you and you shoot them. This was a very fun and compelling experience despite being rather basic. In fact, it was *too* compelling -- the experience was so intense that I had to stop playing, as I thought that if things got significan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WtqR3AwZdoHrACMvD/dangerous-virtual-worlds |
# Founding a rationalist group at the University of Michigan
The Vision
----------
As far as I know, there aren't any LW-style university rationalist groups. I'll be attending the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor) as a graduate student starting this fall, and plan to be there for 1.5-2 years. While I'm there, I'd li... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FFYkgY8ECFd42AYdy/founding-a-rationalist-group-at-the-university-of-michigan |
# Automating Auditing: An ambitious concrete technical research proposal
_This post was originally written as a research proposal for the new AI alignment research organization Redwood Research, detailing an ambitious, concrete technical alignment proposal that I’m excited about work being done on, in a similar vein t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQwT8asti3kyA62zc/automating-auditing-an-ambitious-concrete-technical-research |
# Some criteria for sandwiching projects
I liked [Ajeya's
post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models)
a lot, and I think the alignment community should try to do sandwiching projects along
the lines she describes. Here I wanted to flesh out some potent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gfbf7RsE2fvxGXKC5/some-criteria-for-sandwiching-projects |
# A Response to A Contamination Theory of the Obesity Epidemic
EDIT: 8/12 added a paragraph with a link to my post with more stats under the regression
Copied and pasted in its entirety from [my blog](https://goodtosell.substack.com/p/a-response-to-a-contamination-theory)
Time to try my hand at another [unsolvable c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4FqHN9cWWcjC9qMMo/a-response-to-a-contamination-theory-of-the-obesity-epidemic |
# Erratum for "From AI to Zombies"
Is there any erratum for the "From AI to Zombies" book? There are so many essays, and many of them are written more than 10 years ago. It seems very likely that since then the errors or imprecisions were discovered.
To be specific, I have a very low belief in the chapter on quantum ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rnbqERZrZofAH5Lfx/erratum-for-from-ai-to-zombies |
# Framing Practicum: Bistability
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what bistability is, how to recognize bistability in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
**Today’s challenge: come up w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xnQmQzdcnagAhX2RD/framing-practicum-bistability |
# Combining the best of Georgian and Harberger taxes
*Epistemic status: this probably would be a bad idea, but has some really nice theoretical properties that I hope somebody can find a way to preserve whilst making this a good idea.*
I find both Georgian land taxes and Harberger taxes to be fascinating proposals to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MjBQ8S5tLNGLizACB/combining-the-best-of-georgian-and-harberger-taxes |
# New GPT-3 competitor
AI21 has trained a new language model, Jurassic-1, whose largest version has 178 billion parameters (GPT-3 had 175 billion). [This paper](https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/60fd4503684b466578c0d307/61138924626a6981ee09caf6_jurassic_tech_paper.pdf) gives limited technical details.
There already wer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BCpdyHzzw4BZeodR/new-gpt-3-competitor |
# Covid 8/12: The Worst Is Over
Good news, everyone! Andrew Cuomo has resigned, and Andrew Cuomo is the worst.
I will damn well take it, bec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qa6eDCQwaduYpbvfm/covid-8-12-the-worst-is-over |
# Power-seeking for successive choices
From single choice to successive choices
========================================
Alex Turner (and collaborators) have done a great work [deconfusing instrumental convergence for a single choice](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/fSMbebQyR4wheRrvk). As a quick summary (read [the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Hc4R6rj5yJ3xBhiX/power-seeking-for-successive-choices |
# Technical Predictions Related to AI Safety
If you want to create a policy of nuclear safety then you need to understand:
- Manufacturing nuclear weapons requires access to uranium.
- Uranium enrichment is a big, slow activity that's difficult to hide from enemy nation-states.
- Nuclear weapons are so expensive only ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9QeaAYCym5GF7Q87F/technical-predictions-related-to-ai-safety |
# A review of "Agents and Devices"
In the small group of people who care about deconfusing goal-directedness and like Daniel Dennett's intentional stance, there's one paper everyone mentions: [Agents and Devices](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.12387), by Orseau, McGill and Legg. It's also pretty much the only paper ever m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WrsQfBRqAPKiyGygT/a-review-of-agents-and-devices |
# Coase's "Nature of the Firm" on Polyamory
It occurred to me that Coase's views on [The Nature of the Firm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nature_of_the_Firm) might help explain why polyamory in its modern form is not particularly common or popular.
That sentence might be enough for you to grok what I'm getting a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k42G2aaNhRNB7hdCJ/coase-s-nature-of-the-firm-on-polyamory |
# OpenAI Codex: First Impressions
*OpenAI organised a challenge to solve coding problems with the aid of an AI assistant. This is a review of the challenge, and first impressions on working with an AI pair-programmer.*
OpenAI Codex
============
[OpenAI](https://openai.com/) is an AI research and development company.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ib9bfyJiz4FLuHDQs/openai-codex-first-impressions |
# [AN #160]: Building AIs that learn and think like people
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dkeDMktXtSjfoWnan/an-160-building-ais-that-learn-and-think-like-people |
# In Most Markets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward
The age old adage that high risk is associated with high expected return has not been true in the U.S. stock market, at least when using the academic standard of measuring risk with the either beta or standard deviation of returns. This claim is one of plain numbers, s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqvAFRm8NJZNWLfgK/in-most-markets-lower-risk-means-higher-reward |
# You are invited to apply to the Guild of the ROSE
The Guild of the R.O.S.E. is an organization dedicated to improving the world, created by rationalists, for rationalists. We provide a support structure of a small Cohort for you to join, and a wider Guild to learn from.
As a member you will attend weekly classes us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A5M5AaSzCEmErJvPi/you-are-invited-to-apply-to-the-guild-of-the-rose |
# A deeper look at doxepin and the FDA
Doxepin is an old drug that functions as a sedative and, at high doses, as an antidepressant. It goes by many names, including Silenor and Sinequan. On GoodRx, you can buy 30 doses of Sinequan for about $10, but Silenor costs at least $100. But these are two names for exactly the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EfmewFDzQdFHz62ym/a-deeper-look-at-doxepin-and-the-fda |
# D&D.Sci August 2021: The Oracle and the Monk
You are Oeis the Wise, professional Oracle. Your uncanny ability to predict how lists of whole numbers will continue – and *only* how lists of whole numbers will continue – creates infrequent but intense demand for your counsel: you usually leave your mountain home about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3BjssqE4RqmGKwv7/d-and-d-sci-august-2021-the-oracle-and-the-monk |
# Absent-Minded Driver and Self-Locating Probabilities
The absent-minded driver problem is this:
Fig 1. (Taken from The Absent-Minded Driver by Robert J. Aumann, Sergiu Hart, and Motty Perry)
“An absent-mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hyqXzkCAavDBsxvch/absent-minded-driver-and-self-locating-probabilities |
# Approaches to gradient hacking
[Gradient hacking](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uXH4r6MmKPedk8rMA/gradient-hacking) is a fascinating type of deception, because of its anchoring in current ML. Even if it applies to more general settings, gradient hacking is considered foremost in the context of gradient descen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S2jsBsZvqjBZa3pKT/approaches-to-gradient-hacking |
# Perhaps vastly more people should be on FDA-approved weight loss medication
*\[Epistemic Status: I feel pretty good about most of this, but the life-years-saved-via-medication part is problematic on a number of levels, as pointed out by a few commenters. I include it since back-of-the-envelope calculations serve a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NDmbnaniJ2xJnBASx/perhaps-vastly-more-people-should-be-on-fda-approved-weight |
# Staying Grounded
What does it mean to “stay grounded”? Why does it matter? How does one stay grounded?
Examples
--------
Let’s start with a bunch of examples of grounding failures - i.e. people failing to stay grounded.
* The person who Volunteers to End Hunger, or End Poverty, or what have you, yet they do not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TprAfNMriRY83eJxZ/staying-grounded |
# Transitive Tolerance Means Intolerance
Our society is pretty messed up around arguments of whose ideas we should and shouldn't tolerate. Some of this is inevitable: even without censorship, there are cases where group X can choose to actively show respect to person Y, and members of X will argue about that, and peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EQGcZr3vTyAe6Aiei/transitive-tolerance-means-intolerance |
# Open and Welcome Thread – August 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqnQJYYW6zhT62F6Z/open-and-welcome-thread-august-2021 |
# Utilitarianism Expressed in Julia
I had been looking for a small programming project for learning the basics of [Julia](https://julialang.org/) when I had the idea of modelling a moral system in code. Due to its computational nature, Utilitarianism seemed a likely candidate. Any moral system involves functions in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K3kyo96szJgBDCsGf/utilitarianism-expressed-in-julia |
# Pedophile Problems
I.
I volunteer taught a Biology 101 class at a prison. It was a cool program - a local community college partnered with the prison and people could receive an AA degree while incarcerated. Aside from some administrative issues, it was a great experience - it was fun to teach adults with a limited... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8yHrpgXphxktFpYoH/pedophile-problems |
# Strategy vs. PR-narrative
\[This is me trying to state simply for myself a conceptual distinction I think is well-known.\]
The point of PR-narrative is to make your actions understandable to other people. The point of strategy is to make high-level decisions about the (more local) aims of your thought and acti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mp3DrDtkKo7GfeRw5/strategy-vs-pr-narrative |
# An Apprentice Experiment in Python Programming, Part 3
#### *[Note to readers: We've converted this post into a Jupyter notebook so you can [code along](https://konstell.github.io/python-apprenticeship-site/retro/notebooks/?path=2021-08-13-python-apprenticeship-part-3.ipynb)! (The notebook works on Firefox and Chrom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fKTqwbGAwPNm6fyEH/an-apprentice-experiment-in-python-programming-part-3 |
# The halting problem is overstated
Recently seen on an [otherwise excellent blog post](https://blog.ploeh.dk/2021/08/09/am-i-stuck-in-a-local-maximum/):
> I've definitely been wrong before. For example, in my article [Types + Properties = Software](https://blog.ploeh.dk/2016/02/10/types-properties-software), I wrote... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5exkKf6qtLubqF3y/the-halting-problem-is-overstated |
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