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# Mildly against COVID risk budgets
A friend is hosting a party tonight! It'll cost me 200 microCOVIDs, which, as a healthy thirty-something, I very cautiously estimate to cost about 2 [micromorts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort),[^micromorts-per-microcovid] which is roughly equivalent to 1 hour out of my re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BufvCoFWq9YPRxXKg/mildly-against-covid-risk-budgets |
# Modelling Transformative AI Risks (MTAIR) Project: Introduction
Numerous books, articles, and blog posts have laid out reasons to think that AI might pose catastrophic or existential risks for the future of humanity. However, these reasons often differ from each other both in details and in main conceptual arguments... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnA6paRwMky3Q6ktk/modelling-transformative-ai-risks-mtair-project-introduction |
# Why must plausibilities be represented using real numbers?
Professor Jaynes writes:
Page 17 of his book
, and are provided without comment. To do this yourself, make a search query on Metaforecast, then click on "Capture" on the top right corner, then on "Capture image and generate code".
My hope is that after reading th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pE2roRG4oxk2BDAjR/all-metaforecast-covid-predictions-1 |
# Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.
[Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/) is a search tool for probabilities. Since the [last public update](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cWSDKWDFcGA2Bzyni/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search), we have made several im... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more |
# Power vs Precision
I've written a couple of posts ([1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQrWd5jPZQtpH8f4v/fusion-and-equivocation-in-korzybski-s-general-semantics),[2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RuFy5Gzz6LviXqcW4/implicature-conflation)) about General Semantics and precision (IE, non-equivocation). These posts b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e33b2CpadpepLCzwA/power-vs-precision |
# Framing Practicum: Dynamic Equilibrium
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what dynamic equilibrium is, how to recognize dynamic equilibrium in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
**Toda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yz6WwD6hkwAq2rL6L/framing-practicum-dynamic-equilibrium |
# Gravity Turn
\[The first in a sequence of retrospective essays on my five years in math graduate school.\]
My favorite analogy for graduate school is the [gravity turn](https://wiki.kerbalspaceprogram.com/wiki/Gravity_turn): the maneuver a rocket performs to get from the launch pad to orbit. I like to imagine a fir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QcXuwQvvPkqcKZmXS/gravity-turn |
# A Better Time until Sunburn Calculator
_This is a preliminary review ([more on what this means](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1fNn7OEOw-xZdnXAAnSo31LBQlsLtgPrvmB3own64HWw/edit?usp=sharing))._
I became curious about sun exposure recently. I did an abbreviated review of some of the relevant literature and came a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vX2GP2fiFnkrWfNpw/a-better-time-until-sunburn-calculator |
# Thoughts on Moral Philosophy
I don't really feel that I personally have any special insight into moral philosophy, but nonetheless, some people may find it interesting or useful to know where I stand or the philosophers/perspectives that I do consider to have such insight.
That said, perhaps my most original offeri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2fZrsCf4RJGrWi82T/thoughts-on-moral-philosophy |
# Factors of mental and physical abilities - a statistical analysis
(*Cross-posted with various interactive elements (videos, expandy/contracty boxes) that required slightly awkward substitutes here.*)
---
Is there a general factor of intelligence?
This question is a trap. If you try to answer it, you’ll find yours... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CrFd6W4z5AHGvEDhD/factors-of-mental-and-physical-abilities-a-statistical |
# Finite Factored Sets: Polynomials and Probability
In this post, given a [finite factored set](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr) $F=(S,B)$, we will show how to associate each $E\subseteq S$ with a characteristic polynomial, $Q^F_E$. We will discuss how to factor these characteristic polynomials, and use ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jr5kyRhNriCX2Ayyg/finite-factored-sets-polynomials-and-probability |
# When Programmers Don't Understand Code, Don't Blame The User
In [Undergraduation](http://paulgraham.com/college.html), Paul Graham said something that has always stuck with me:
> On the whole, grad school is probably better than most alternatives. You meet a lot of smart people, and your glum procrastination will a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YX9gtXpse95Lbdp5w/when-programmers-don-t-understand-code-don-t-blame-the-user |
# A Modest Proposal: Logging for Environmentalists
(Epistemic status: non-expert who's spent about 5 minutes looking into the subject)
So, we have more wildfires this year in California, which are once again screwing up the local air quality. As I understand it, there's lots of dry wood accumulating; the fires are b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LiGtDpykijmLkaGFR/a-modest-proposal-logging-for-environmentalists |
# Cafe Meetup 8/21: Taboo-ing practice
Note: Actual Taboo activity only starts at 2:30 pm.
It's been a while since we did Taboo, and even longer since in-person.
Taboo is a board game, but also a [rationalist exercise](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_taboo) that tests your worldmodel's ability to maintai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/oeDncMgF6GE8AysdZ/cafe-meetup-8-21-taboo-ing-practice |
# Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster
The news about Covid-19 is now essentially on a few distinct tracks: Vaccine effectiveness and booster shots, vaccination mandates, mandates for NPIs and other Covid-19 related crippling of the living of life, and the actual path of the pandemic. One could argue for splitting those f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eJ4FwsGmAyxSZE5Ah/covid-8-19-cracking-the-booster |
# Exploring the Landscape of Scientific Minds (Let my People Go)
(Origina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vWTf9TimX2okmqeBm/exploring-the-landscape-of-scientific-minds-let-my-people-go |
# Framing Practicum: Timescale Separation
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what timescale separation is, how to recognize timescale separation in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
**T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZExjznjijZCaweQji/framing-practicum-timescale-separation |
# [AN #161]: Creating generalizable reward functions for multiple tasks by learning a model of functional similarity
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wMCbo7HX3cFbtHZcM/an-161-creating-generalizable-reward-functions-for-multiple |
# How DeepMind's Generally Capable Agents Were Trained
# Intro
One of DeepMind's latest papers, [Open-Ended Learning Leads to Generally Capable Agents](https://deepmind.com/research/publications/2021/open-ended-learning-leads-to-generally-capable-agents), explains how DeepMind produced agents that can successfully pl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DreKBuMvK7fdESmSJ/how-deepmind-s-generally-capable-agents-were-trained |
# Provide feedback on Open Philanthropy’s AI alignment RFP
Open Philanthropy is planning a request for proposals (RFP) for AI alignment projects working with deep learning systems, and we’re looking for feedback on the RFP and on the research directions we’re looking for proposals within. We’d be really interested in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TmhrC93mj2Pgsox9t/provide-feedback-on-open-philanthropy-s-ai-alignment-rfp |
# Analogies and General Priors on Intelligence
*This post is part 2 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. We are building a model to understand debates around existential risks from advanced AI. The model is made with* [*Analytica*](https://en.wik... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFQkFNCszoJPZTnK6/analogies-and-general-priors-on-intelligence |
# AI Safety Papers: An App for the TAI Safety Database
[**AI Safety Papers**](https://ai-safety-papers.quantifieduncertainty.org) is a website to quickly explore papers around AI Safety. The code is hosted on Github [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/ai-safety-papers).
In December 2020, Jess Riedel and Angelica ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GgusnG2tiPEa4aYFS/ai-safety-papers-an-app-for-the-tai-safety-database |
# Implication of AI timelines on planning and solutions
(*Cross-posted to* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LmmPadx7jw9aoro9k/implication-of-ai-timelines-on-planning-and-solutions))
**TL;DR**
If your median estimate for TAI is in 30 years you might have to plan to solve the alignment proble... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GDsSvEnd8YAbSKLHp/implication-of-ai-timelines-on-planning-and-solutions |
# Is antibody testing to assess effects of vaccines on you a good idea?
I've had 2 Pfizer doses and was wondering if it's worth it to do a commercial antibody test to assess if I've had an adequate immune response and check antibody levels. This can also be used to decide whether to go for a 3rd booster shot if/when t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ChbtahQmC3ayFMzDu/is-antibody-testing-to-assess-effects-of-vaccines-on-you-a |
# Treatments for depression that depressed LW readers may not have tried?
I would guess that a disproportionate amount of LessWrong readers are significantly impaired by depression. Successful treatment of depression is greatly beneficial to 1) quality of life and 2) ability to impact the world. What are some ways to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDCNEeGaRQPKafhq2/treatments-for-depression-that-depressed-lw-readers-may-not |
# A Better Web is Coming
(Cross-posted from my [blog](https://mattscodecave.com/posts/a-better-web-is-coming.html))
It bums me out when I see how much of the Web is trolling, ads, and endless re-shares of yesteryear's memes. The cynic in me thinks that this is it, this is as good as it gets–we're stuck and cursed to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HaESgyu2BqDMTpujS/a-better-web-is-coming |
# Somerville Election Thoughts
Instead of a primary, Somerville holds preliminary elections. For each role, if there are more than twice as many candidates as spots there's preliminary election. This year that applies to Mayor (four candidates), and the councilors for Wards five (three candidates) and seven (four cand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NWjKcFy2szqaYKBc/somerville-election-thoughts |
# Autoregressive Propaganda
OpenAI has rules to keep GPT-3 from being misused.
> ### 🛑 Disallowed:
>
> **Social media, spam, and political implications**
>
> - Applications that serve open-ended outputs to 3rd-parties, such as Tweet generators, Instagram post generators, unconstrained chatbots, or other open-ended t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7YbQm7zA5NvMhEzyN/autoregressive-propaganda |
# What fraction of breakthrough COVID cases are attributable to low antibody count?
To what extent are COVID cases in vaccinated people a result of low antibody count, vs other factors (e.g. initial viral load)? Where does most of the variance come from?
Motivation for this question: in a world where most breakthroug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLyTwWkkTZWCkK9w8/what-fraction-of-breakthrough-covid-cases-are-attributable |
# AI Risk for Epistemic Minimalists
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: This is an attempt to use only very robust arguments.*
---
## Outline
* I outline a case for concern a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8fpzBHt7e6n7Qjoo9/ai-risk-for-epistemic-minimalists |
# Is top-down veganism unethical?
*« Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away. »*
– Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Remember how the vegetables we eat everyday are [very different](https://www.telescopic-turnip.net/90-true/90true-agriculture-from-the-future... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SDsTq4DDhh77jECHm/is-top-down-veganism-unethical |
# The Death of Behavioral Economics
Edit: I recommend reading [Scott's response to this essay](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/gBpYo7mt2zNBmtBJd/crosspost-on-hreha-on-behavioral-economics) in addition to the essay itself.
I've been tracking the replication crisis and how it affects a bunch of behavioral economics ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2WngsveoLhFubuLMH/the-death-of-behavioral-economics |
# A taxonomy of coordination problems
The LessWrong [coordination/cooperation tag](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/coordination-cooperation) describes coordination as:
> the challenge of distinct actors being able to jointly choose their actions to achieve a favorable outcome. [...] A closely related concept is that of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aa8jByqBkyZXkLi7v/a-taxonomy-of-coordination-problems |
# Cryonics prices were more complicated when I double-clicked
I know there are a few folks signed up for cryonics on LessWrong. At time of writing, I have decided not to do so. This covers part of the research I did while deciding: how expensive is cryonics?
### Life Insurance
I am in Canada where only one insurance... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C7LG3uKbLsYmt7wJ3/cryonics-prices-were-more-complicated-when-i-double-clicked |
# An Open Letter To Myself On How To Not Get Any Work Done.
This is a letter to myself on how to not get any work done. A skill I have perfected over years of practice. And leveraged to its full potential for most of my life. You could say I'm a master at it.
How To Not Get Any Work Done(while simultaneously feeling ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbqecMtt8ZEh6DbRf/an-open-letter-to-myself-on-how-to-not-get-any-work-done |
# Berlin, Germany – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
This year's ACX Meetup everywhere in Berlin, Germany.
Location: Südplateau Fritz-Schloss-Park – [///directly.packing.pardon](https://what3words.com////directly.packing.pardon)
Contact: ssc@alphabattle.xyz.
A lot of people RSVPed, so there won't be enough benches. If ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KEnZqCoqBWAbRDDmF/berlin-germany-acx-meetups-everywhere-2021 |
# Berkeley, CA – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
This year's ACX Meetup everywhere in Berkeley, CA.
Location: Lawn of Valley Life Sciences Building, UC Berkeley campus – [///deflection.jump.puppy](https://what3words.com////deflection.jump.puppy)
Contact: [meetupsmingyuan@gmail.com](mailto:meetupsmingyuan@gmail.com), [F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/xtXtrN4H73qiRj2in/berkeley-ca-acx-meetups-everywhere-2021 |
# Ann Arbor, MI – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
This year's ACX Meetup everywhere in Ann Arbor, MI.
Location: Island Park Shelter A, Ann Arbor, MI We will be at Island Park Shelter A. It is the first shelter when you enter the park, closest to the foot bridge to the island. – [///slices.zealous.launch](https://what3wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PXoj6exi8DeJwwrdX/ann-arbor-mi-acx-meetups-everywhere-2021 |
# New York City, NY – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
This year's ACX Meetup everywhere in New York City, NY!
### Everyone is Welcomed! Yes, You!
Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not ‘the typical SSC reader’, even if you’re worried people won’t like you, even if you have never... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/SYsBqCiZCW72HW7fr/new-york-city-ny-acx-meetups-everywhere-2021 |
# Generator Systems: Coincident Constraints
### The Prototype Plane Perfecter
You are asked with improving the design of a plane, which keeps falling out of the sky when it reaches 80 mph. This makes sense, as it is a prototype, put together with no knowledge of high-speed flight. Unfortunately they always seem to di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mqmp4CpXXEmjEsAPt/generator-systems-coincident-constraints |
# Randal Koene on brain understanding before whole brain emulation
Background / Context
====================
Some people, including me, think that it will be very hard and risky to write and run Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) code without risking catastrophic accidents—up to and including human extinction (see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/evtKwDCgtQQ7ozLn4/randal-koene-on-brain-understanding-before-whole-brain |
# Moscow, Russia – ACX Meetups Everywhere 2021
This year's ACX Meetups everywhere in Moscow, Russia.
* Location: Muzeon park, in front of the entry to the New Tretyakov Gallery; [join our chat](https://t.me/joinchat/lAu3wxmE9vgzMThi) for the updates
* Coordinates: [https://what3words.com/sectors.toffee.sweeten](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/d6jB5mpKm5AfAkivh/moscow-russia-acx-meetups-everywhere-2021 |
# We need a new philosophy of progress
We live in an age that has lost its optimism. Polls show that people [think the world is getting worse](https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2016/12/Optimistic-about-the-future-2.png), not better. Children [fear dying from environmental catastrophe](https://www.theguardian.com/envi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NSE5inD4zACqSu7zz/we-need-a-new-philosophy-of-progress |
# The Roots of Progress is now a nonprofit organization
I’m excited to announce that [The Roots of Progress](https://rootsofprogress.org/) is now a nonprofit organization.
The Roots of Progress started in 2017 as a side project, not much more than a blog. After Tyler Cowen and Patrick Collison published [their call f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wpXfhns9aYW8fsqa7/the-roots-of-progress-is-now-a-nonprofit-organization |
# D&D.Sci August 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3BjssqE4RqmGKwv7/d-and-d-sci-august-2021-the-oracle-and-the-monk) I made ten days ago; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnrHweJced4EMWcBE/d-and-d-sci-august-2021-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# 18 possible meanings of "I Like Red"
A speaker says, "I like red". Here are a few of the many things they could mean\[1\] by that.
1. I like red.
2. I want you to believe that I like red.
3. I want myself to believe that I like red, and this can be assisted by a public statement.
4. I think that the community ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTWC5mvSFQf669zvb/18-possible-meanings-of-i-like-red |
# What are some good rationalist ice breaker questions?
This question [has been asked](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tLJ87uJztSPpnjawb/what-are-good-ice-breaker-questions-for-meeting-people-in), but I will ask again. In light of the upcoming meetups everywhere, I thought it would be a good idea to compile a list of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nXojemZyXvATRew5s/what-are-some-good-rationalist-ice-breaker-questions |
# COVID/Delta advice I'm currently giving to friends
\[Epistemic status: US-centric. gathering various impressions even though I haven't deeply investigated this topic and am not an expert, so it's all in one place and others can better use or critique the claims.\]
### **1\. Figure things out for yourself**
Figure ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rbeFZr5pqCTCfKiW4/covid-delta-advice-i-m-currently-giving-to-friends |
# Information Assets
*Epistemic Status:* This represents fairly early work. The terminology isn't at all set in stone.
*Scholarship Status:* I've spent several hours attempting to investigate this topic, and in the past have spent quite a while researching Information Theory and Applied Information Economics. I'm su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EJgm9FfC46Zg9HGgt/information-assets |
# Yet More Modal Combat
Strongly recommended prior reading.
[Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma:](https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577)
[Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic](https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.5577)
I think I have come up with a modal agent that has these nice properties.
* Cooperates against... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPMnjRdhHNd65XpDt/yet-more-modal-combat |
# The Codex Skeptic FAQ
Most of my programmer friends believe that Language Models trained on code will not affect their day job anytime soon. In this post, I make the case that 1) code generation is already useful (assuming minimal prompt engineering skills) 2) even if you do not believe in 1), code generation will i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rhg27MqkxJsnZwoYg/the-codex-skeptic-faq |
# Framing Practicum: Turnover Time
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what turnover time is, how to recognize when turnover time is relevant in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
**Today... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wqg9EP8ugmQPcPBS9/framing-practicum-turnover-time |
# Extraction of human preferences
👨→🤖
**Introduction**
================
Developing safe and beneficial reinforcement learning (RL) agents requires making them aligned with human preferences. An RL agent trained to fulfil any objective in the real world will probably have to learn human preferences in order to do w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZYD5kBpeHWgE5jX4/extraction-of-human-preferences |
# Welcome & FAQ!
*The AI Alignment Forum was launched in 2018. Since then, several hundred researchers have contributed approximately two thousand posts and nine thousand comments. Nearing the third birthday of the Forum, we are publishing this updated and clarified FAQ.*
In a [previous post,](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ef7cxLovpiLBuoDrx/the-validity-of-self-locating-probabilities) I argued self-locating probabilities are not valid concepts. Many comments want me to use examples with solid numbers and bets. So here is the exam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLoZeKpvXNmaQ3sfq/the-validity-of-self-locating-probabilities-pt-2 |
# Sam Altman at the AstralCodexTen Online Meetup
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, joining us again. Almost a year ago we had a great meeting with Sam— with record attendance!
Our meetup on Sunday, September 5, 2021, will start off with a Q&A. You can ask questions on AI, AGI, OpenAI, or any other topics.
After that, we w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/NvSJe9eRQu7iQ37mw/sam-altman-at-the-astralcodexten-online-meetup-1 |
# How to turn money into AI safety?
Related: [Suppose $1 billion is given to AI Safety. How should it be spent?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EoqaNexFaXrJjbBM4) , [EA is vetting-constrained](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/G2Pfpkcwv3bJNF8o9/ea-is-vetting-constrained), [What to do with people?](https://for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3itckRo4WoDYzFeL/how-to-turn-money-into-ai-safety |
# (apologies for Alignment Forum server outage last night)
The Alignment Forum was down between approx 1:30AM and 7:00AM PDT last night due to what seems to be a memory leak issue (postmortem ongoing). We're setting up some additional monitoring to ensure this doesn't happen again.
Apologies for any inconvenience exp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxMmhJbNbuywFqcBk/apologies-for-alignment-forum-server-outage-last-night |
# MIRI/OP exchange about decision theory
Open Philanthropy's Joe Carlsmith and Nick Beckstead had a short conversation about [decision theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh/p/zcPLNNw4wgBX5k8kQ) a few weeks ago with MIRI's Abram Demski and Scott Garrabrant (and me) and LW's Ben Pace. I'm copying it here... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FBbHEjkZzdupcjkna/miri-op-exchange-about-decision-theory-1 |
# Covid 8/26: Full Vaccine Approval
Great news, everyone. [The Pfizer vaccine has been approved.](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-first-covid-19-vaccine) [Woo-hoo!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kFUSgR7ujI&ab_channel=HomerJ.Simpson)
It will be marketed [under the name Comirnaty](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5yarKt4MqRjv72mYv/covid-8-26-full-vaccine-approval |
# For me the Christianity deal-breaker was meekness
I was raised Catholic, became agnostic around 13, stopped thinking an afterlife made sense at 15, and noticed I was no longer religious at 16.
But I still spent the next ~12 years in pretty close proximity to Christianity. I did religious studies at school, I studie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eboe4pe7sEymYa8dy/for-me-the-christianity-deal-breaker-was-meekness |
# Narrative truth
One idea I encountered when investigating Jordan Peterson was the idea of narrative truth.
This is the kind of concept that people often nod along too, whilst almost always leaving it implicit, so I thought it'd be worthwhile examining this in more detail here.
Let's see what some other people have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f46GtgMzcJy5TmSmq/narrative-truth |
# Introduction to Reducing Goodhart
(*This work was supported by CEEALAR and LTFF. Thanks to James Flaville, Jason Green-Lowe, Michele Campolo, Justis Mills, Peter Barnett, and Steve Byrnes for conversations.*)
**I - Prologue**
A few months ago, I wanted to write about AI designs that evade Goodhart's law. But as I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RozggPiqQxzzDaNYF/introduction-to-reducing-goodhart |
# Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities
A recent paper at the University of British Columbia describes five studies which, taken together, provide evidence that tendency to engage in victimhood signalling is correlated across individuals with Dark Triad personality traits (Machiavelli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EcKG5KACubwMJquBK/signaling-virtuous-victimhood-as-indicators-of-dark-triad-1 |
# A brief review of The Scout Mindset
I've been reading blogs like Less Wrong for almost a decade. So then, a lot of what was said in this book wasn't new to me. However, I still really liked it.
I'm of the opinion that in order to _deeply_ understand a topic, it's not just enough to understand it conceptually, you h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fDNEk9fbxXoQacKH3/a-brief-review-of-the-scout-mindset |
# Amyloid Plaques: Chemical Streetlight, Medical Goodhart
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is truly, unduly cruel, and truly, unduly common. A huge amount of effort goes into curing it, which I think is a true credit to our civilization. This is in the form of both money, and the efforts of many of the brightest researchers.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ahpj6zzAdLypTs4Hm/amyloid-plaques-chemical-streetlight-medical-goodhart |
# Could you have stopped Chernobyl?
...or would you have needed a PhD for that?
* * *
It would appear the [inaugural post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mqrHHdY5zLqr6RHbi/what-is-the-problem) caused some (off-LW) consternation! It would, after all, be a tragedy if the guard in our Chernobyl thought experiment over... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpT2gvzfzLjZQWBHn/could-you-have-stopped-chernobyl |
# Altruism Under Extreme Uncertainty
I attended an Effective Altruism club today where someone had this to say about longtermism.
> I have an intuitive feeling that ethical arguments about small probabilities of helping out extremely large numbers (like $10^{58}$) of people are flawed, but I can't construct a good ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G4anQoPi9QJ2gRGjp/altruism-under-extreme-uncertainty |
# Research productivity tip: "Solve The Whole Problem Day"
*(This is about a research productivity strategy that’s been working very well for me personally. But YMMV,* [*consider reversing any advice*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/24/should-you-reverse-any-advice-you-hear/)*, etc. etc.)*
As a researcher, there’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MAfJJbvJetgG2rJWG/research-productivity-tip-solve-the-whole-problem-day |
# [AN #162]: Foundation models: a paradigm shift within AI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Haawpd5rZrzkzvYRC/an-162-foundation-models-a-paradigm-shift-within-ai |
# Framing Practicum: Incentive
**Credit**
An enormous amount of credit goes to [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth) who made this new post possible.
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what incentives are, how to recognize in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qxCDq3rq7RQC3L3f9/framing-practicum-incentive-1 |
# Can you control the past?
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/08/27/can-you-control-the-past/). Lots of stuff familiar to LessWrong folks interested in decision theory.)
I think that you can “control” events you have no causal interaction with, including events in the past, and tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PcfHSSAMNFMgdqFyB/can-you-control-the-past |
# How To Write Quickly While Maintaining Epistemic Rigor
There’s this trap people fall into when writing, especially for a place like LessWrong where the bar for epistemic rigor is pretty high. They have a good idea, or an interesting belief, or a cool model. They write it out, but they’re not really sure if it’s *tru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Psr9tnQFuEXiuqGcR/how-to-write-quickly-while-maintaining-epistemic-rigor |
# Brain-Computer Interfaces and AI Alignment
*cross-posted from [niplav.github.io](https://niplav.github.io)*
> I discuss arguments for and against the usefulness of brain-computer
interfaces in relation to AI alignment, and conclude that the path to
AI going well using brain-computer interfaces hasn't been explained... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rpRsksjrBXEDJuHHy/brain-computer-interfaces-and-ai-alignment |
# Training My Friend to Cook
During pre-vaccination covid, my friend Brittany and I agreed to hang out once per week as quarantine buddies. Brittany has a laundry list of health problems, many of which are exacerbated by a poor diet. Brittany loves healthy food. She ate a diet based around TV dinners because she didn'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5QmtqBt6GDM8hYkAr/training-my-friend-to-cook |
# The Solow-Swan model of economic growth
*Note: This is the first post in a sequence I* [*announced*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ADWcxNjQN3pbywtg/preface-to-the-sequence-on-economic-growth) *over a year ago.* *The sequence is intended to serve as a primer to the field of economic growth for those interested in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yqN4KFn7WpyQd7Fqa/the-solow-swan-model-of-economic-growth |
# A Small Vacation
(note: I have been thinking about this essay for several months; I did not realize it would turn out to be
[so timely](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/world/europe/afghanistan-refugees-europe-migration-asylum.html)).
Many people in the [rationality community](https://openborders.info/blog/tag/e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ixXy3BRZMBrvMLyKb/a-small-vacation-1 |
# Humanity is Winning the Fight Against Infectious Disease
One of my favorite things about living in the 21st century United States is how so few people die of infectious disease. Here's a graph of deaths showing how infectious diseases decreased by an order of magnitude between the turn of the century and Salk's Poli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2jjbkWpznvSZsiMeh/humanity-is-winning-the-fight-against-infectious-disease |
# Beware of small world puzzles
A very well known puzzle in probabilities says:
*Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?*
There is much discussion about this puzzle because depending on how you find out that one of the kids is a boy, the probabi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R2GAuP9CdGtsDcpy4/beware-of-small-world-puzzles |
# A short introduction to machine learning
Despite the current popularity of machine learning, I haven’t found any short introductions to it which quite match the way I prefer to introduce people to the field. So here’s my own. Compared with other introductions, I’ve focused less on explaining each concept in detail, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qE73pqxAZmeACsAdF/a-short-introduction-to-machine-learning |
# Antidotes to Number Numbness
Humans can’t grasp large numbers. True, when we hear “one hundred”, we might imagine ten rows of ten or a few written paragraphs. Some of the more number-savvy might hear one thousand and see half the stars in the sky. But when we reach for higher powers of ten—ten thousand, one hundred ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQwSpKvDJom4KephP/antidotes-to-number-numbness |
# Alignment Research = Conceptual Alignment Research + Applied Alignment Research
Instead of talking about alignment research, we should differentiate **conceptual** alignment research and **applied** alignment research.
I expect these two categories to be quite obvious to most people around here: conceptual alignmen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Xfv3GQgo2kGER8vA/alignment-research-conceptual-alignment-research-applied |
# We Live in an Era of Unprecedented World Peace
[Edit: This data seems to underestimate the violent death tolls in state societies. I think the general thesis is still valid but the data I used in this article should be taken very skeptically.]
Beside [not dying of infectious disease](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J7wdLgT4fCiZDgm9E/we-live-in-an-era-of-unprecedented-world-peace |
# How much COVID protection is gained from protecting your eyes?
So, as I understand it there are three main spots on the body where COVID infection typically takes place -- the nose, the mouth, and the eyes. It is relatively easy to obtain a very protective mask for the nose and mouth (n95/p100), but a large majority... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YWCFSe7fvEFSe9NqL/how-much-covid-protection-is-gained-from-protecting-your |
# Exercise Trade Offs
Update 9/2: A friend pointed out that I was ignoring the time costs of exercise, which ended up being pretty significant. See new numbers [here](https://acesounderglass.com/2021/09/02/exercise-trade-offs-followup/). I then double checked the math on the microlife numbers and the news is [not good... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cpKpJgjzezyxvjryN/exercise-trade-offs |
# World War Zero
In the 1750s, British settlers in America wanted to trade in Ohio Country. The French didn't want them to. In 1753 the French began construction of a series of forts in the Ohio Country. Nobody stopped them **because Ohio Country was *de facto* French territory**. The French had been trading there for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wLqdXvpzm47iJNemH/world-war-zero |
# An Apprentice Experiment in Python Programming, Part 4
*[Note to readers: The Jupyter notebook version of this post is [here](https://konstell.github.io/python-apprenticeship-site/retro/notebooks/?path=2021-08-31-python-apprenticeship-part-4.ipynb)]*
Previously: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fKTqwbGAwPNm6fyEH/an-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uqP4bHPFQReHD2uGn/an-apprentice-experiment-in-python-programming-part-4 |
# Grokking the Intentional Stance
Considering how much I’ve been using “[the intentional stance](https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/intentional-stance)" in my thinking about the nature of agency and goals and discussions of the matter recently, I figured it would be a good idea to, y’know, *actually read* what Dan Dennett... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jHSi6BwDKTLt5dmsG/grokking-the-intentional-stance |
# What could small scale disasters from AI look like?
If an AI system or systems goes wrong in the near term and causes harm to humans in a way which is consistent with or supportive of alignment being a big deal, what might it look like?
I'm asking because I'm curious about potential fire-alarm scenarios (including ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEF66j7SxEGdwH4Zn/what-could-small-scale-disasters-from-ai-look-like |
# The Telephone Theorem: Information At A Distance Is Mediated By Deterministic Constraints
You know the game of Telephone? That one where a bunch of people line up, and the first person whispers some message in the second person’s ear, then the second person whispers it to the third, and so on down the line, and then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jJf4FrfiQdDGg7uco/the-telephone-theorem-information-at-a-distance-is-mediated |
# [Crosspost] On Hreha On Behavioral Economics
\[crossposted from [Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/on-hreha-on-behavioral-economics)\]
Jason Hreha’s article on [The Death Of Behavioral Economics](https://www.thebehavioralscientist.com/articles/the-death-of-behavioral-economics) has been going ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gBpYo7mt2zNBmtBJd/crosspost-on-hreha-on-behavioral-economics |
# From Branes to Brains. How mathematical physics can be used in life sciences.
When I was a Masters student, I was doing mathematical physics and I was feeling quite lost. I didn’t feel that I was good enough to continue or to outcompete everyone on the path to tenure. Moreover, I wasn’t even as motivated as I used ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fg46zjCzzvPJXZWRD/from-branes-to-brains-how-mathematical-physics-can-be-used |
# What are biases, anyway? Multiple type signatures
*With thanks to Rebecca Gorman for helping develop this idea.*
I've been constructing toy examples of agents with preferences and biases. There turns out to be many, many different ways of doing this, and none of the toy examples seem very universal. The reason for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jute9YcbYvm4ZWdXk/what-are-biases-anyway-multiple-type-signatures |
# Finite Factored Sets: Inferring Time
The [fundamental theorem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jr5kyRhNriCX2Ayyg/finite-factored-sets-polynomials-and-probability#5_5__The_Fundamental_Theorem_of_Finite_Factored_Sets) of [finite factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr) tells us that ([conditional]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hePucCfKyiRHECz3e/finite-factored-sets-inferring-time |
# Finite Factored Sets: Applications
We will now discuss several different applications and directions for future work on [finite factored sets](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr). We will divide these research directions into three categories: 'Inference,' 'Infinity,' and 'Embedded Agency.'
This post wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGFiw23pJ32obgLbw/finite-factored-sets-applications |
# Reward splintering as reverse of interpretability
There is a sense in which [reward splintering](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) is the reverse of interpretability.
Interpretability is basically:
* "This algorithm is doing something ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZEpqrLh2xHx2xfAd/reward-splintering-as-reverse-of-interpretability |
# A Layman’s Guide to Recreational Mathematics Videos
*This is a crosspost from my* [*personal website*](https://samenright.com/2021/08/31/a-laymans-guide-to-recreational-mathematics-videos/)*. *
I have watched a *lot* of maths videos on the internet. The medium of YouTube is quite well suited to maths; maths books a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MZHgJwJD7jR4REFDP/a-layman-s-guide-to-recreational-mathematics-videos |
# Call for research on evaluating alignment (funding + advice available)
Summary
-------
Evaluating and measuring alignment in existing large ML models is useful, and doesn’t require high levels of ML or coding experience. I (Beth) would be excited to fund people to work on this, and William Saunders & I are open to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Rvctxk73BrKqEaqh/call-for-research-on-evaluating-alignment-funding-advice |
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