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# NIST AI Risk Management Framework request for information (RFI)
*(Cross-post from the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sQz9zTw49twFTsqMg/nist-ai-risk-management-framework-request-for-information)*)*
The [US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)](https://www.nist.gov/) previous... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uFLCwj6jcvnvMtBk3/nist-ai-risk-management-framework-request-for-information |
# [Sponsored] Job Hunting in the Modern Economy
This article was sponsored by [Aigent®](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ).
---
Applying to job postings is a waste of time. To get a good job you need to network. But engineers aren't trained in networking (well, not the biological kind). We're trained in technology. Expec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bbgkvvCyAqifrag3b/sponsored-job-hunting-in-the-modern-economy |
# Long Covid Is Not Necessarily Your Biggest Problem
At this point, people I know are not that worried about dying from covid. We’re all vaccinated, we’re mostly young and healthy(ish), and it turns out the odds were always low for us. We’re also not that worried about hospitalization: it’s much more likely than death... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6uwLq8kofo4Tzxfe2/long-covid-is-not-necessarily-your-biggest-problem |
# Open & Welcome Thread September 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hhzuzGnnr2n5cbsW5/open-and-welcome-thread-september-2021 |
# Guide to Warwick, New York
On March 22, 2020, I moved my family forty miles northwest from New York City to Warwick, New York, into half of a house. On September 3, 2021, we will return to the city. During that time, we’ve spent the vast majority of days in this city, with only a handful of bus trips into Manhattan,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3StseM2GxmffDpC5H/guide-to-warwick-new-york |
# US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments
Recently, the US military gave a briefing on what I take to be the current state of the art capabilities for using ML for intelligence gathering. Some quotes worth highlighting follow, with some notes and impressions at the bottom.
> The Global Information Domina... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments |
# Tasker actions which save me time and sanity
[Tasker](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=net.dinglisch.android.taskerm&hl=en_US&gl=US) is a general purpose automation app for Android. It costs a few dollars and takes a bit of time to learn, but once you learn the basics it is quite useful. In this post, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3yoSSp72Z2YStawZ/tasker-actions-which-save-me-time-and-sanity |
# Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
Highlights
----------
* Despite forecaster consensus to the contrary, Kabul has fallen
* CSET-Foretell attempts to [make inroads](https://www.cset-foretell.com/issue-campaigns) into US decision-making mechanisms
* The US’ CDC to [launch a new outbreak analysis and forecast ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m8MDe8MKRWkYAL9Xi/forecasting-newsletter-august-2021 |
# D&D.Sci Pathfinder: Return of the Gray Swan
*This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset. *
*Edited to add: Consensus is that this scenario is too complicated. It probably shou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycG3mrtdqddCkK9et/d-and-d-sci-pathfinder-return-of-the-gray-swan |
# A lost 80s/90s metaphor: playing the demo
I'm an old. By which I mean a somewhat recent quadragenarian. Folks used to call people like me Xennials, but [that was seven years ago when we still had a spark of life left](https://www.good.is/articles/generation-xennials). Now that we're all just waiting to die, we're [g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WdvQEsmtbYoaNRDKX/a-lost-80s-90s-metaphor-playing-the-demo |
# Growth of prediction markets over time?
I would love to see a graph of the total amount of money sloshing around in prediction markets in 2021, 2020, 2019, etc. stretching back as far as we have data. I'm wondering whether there is a trend and if so what the growth rate is. My Google-fu is failing me so I'm asking h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4XXnMXfTrYXqpugwB/growth-of-prediction-markets-over-time |
# Competent Preferences
**I - Obvious answers to obvious questions**
"[Why do I think I know what I do](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rQEwySCcLtdKHkrHp/righting-a-wrong-question) about Goodhart's law?"
There's an obvious answer (or at least an obvious outer layer of the answer-onion): we use Goodhart's law because... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kuhXtwFdXvD2Ngie/competent-preferences |
# Covid 9/2: Long Covid Analysis
I’m going back to New York City, baby! Tomorrow’s the big day.
Oh, yeah, the pandemic. That’s still a thing, and one still has to deal with the various ways people are dealing with it. Cases continue to rise slightly, likely due to increased testing, and we certainly aren’t seeing a b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igTXtj8aBNsjGD7cZ/covid-9-2-long-covid-analysis |
# Formalizing Objections against Surrogate Goals
*I recently had a chance to look into surrogate goals and safe Pareto improvements, two recent proposals for avoiding the realization of threats in multiagent scenarios. In this report, I formalize some objections to these proposals.*
*EDIT: by discussing objections to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4FrKRTrmyxrw5Dip/formalizing-objections-against-surrogate-goals |
# Lakshmi's Magic Rope: An Intuitive Explanation of Ramanujan Primes
Imagine a magic rope. It's long, stretchy, and beautiful. Let's take it w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AroeM23NamRrbEEeh/lakshmi-s-magic-rope-an-intuitive-explanation-of-ramanujan |
# Addendum to "Amyloid Plaques: Medical Goodhart, Chemical Streetlight"
Last week I committed to posting five examples where I think a group of scientists has gone astray. Goodhart's law says you get what you measure. The streetlight effect makes you look where it's easy to look. When combined, all you get from an ent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c4acDicKuMTtKPKru/addendum-to-amyloid-plaques-medical-goodhart-chemical |
# Review: Foragers, Farmers, and Fossil Fuels
Two hundred years ago, most people lived in societies that considered slavery, war, and discrimination based on class, ethnicity, and gender to be justifiable. Today, most people live in societies that hold the opposite beliefs.
What changed? A simple and tempting narrati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsFpCGPJ6dfk9uFkR/review-foragers-farmers-and-fossil-fuels |
# Framing Practicum: Selection Incentive
### **Credit**
An enormous amount of credit goes to [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth) who made this new post possible.
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what selection incentives ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nAQorybuCSBRHEvMn/framing-practicum-selection-incentive |
# Is there a name for the theory that "There will be fast takeoff in real-world capabilities because almost everything is AGI-complete"?
I think it's plausible that:
1) For many applications, getting narrow AI to do a task well enough to be valuable doesn't seem worth it, and likely isn't (esp. when considering oppo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d8BW4pBwT9sBrJ44m/is-there-a-name-for-the-theory-that-there-will-be-fast |
# Thoughts on gradient hacking
Gradient hacking is the hypothesised phenomenon of a machine learning model, during training, deliberately thinking in ways which guide gradient descent to update its parameters in the directions it desires. The key intuition here is that because the loss landscape of a model is based on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/egzqHKkzhuZuivHZ4/thoughts-on-gradient-hacking |
# Book review: Shut Out
Book review: Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession
and Crippled Our Economy, by [Kevin
Erdmann](https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com).
Why did the US have an [unusually bad recession in
2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession), followed by years
of disappo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v9i9XjK266PntDWTp/book-review-shut-out |
# All Possible Views About Humanity's Future Are Wild
*This is the first post in the Most Important Century sequence. For more info and a roadmap for the series, see the* [*sequence introduction*](https://www.lessestwrong.com/posts/yHzDrTCum4rdNRDJJ/the-most-important-century-sequence-introduction).
*Audio also avail... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F5ktR95qqpmGXXmLq/all-possible-views-about-humanity-s-future-are-wild-1 |
# The Most Important Century: Sequence Introduction
\[*Moderators' note: with permission, I am crossposting Holden Karnofsky's* Most Important Century *series,* [*originally published on his blog*](https://www.cold-takes.com/roadmap-for-the-most-important-century-series/)*. In my (Ruby's) opinion, this may be the mos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yHzDrTCum4rdNRDJJ/the-most-important-century-sequence-introduction |
# [Review] Edge of Tomorrow (2014)
This post contains spoilers for *Edge of Tomorrow* (2014) and *All You Need is Kill* (2004).
# Spoiler-Free tl;dr
Watch *Edge of Tomorrow* up until the scene at the dam. Skip the rest of the film and read *All You Need is Kill* instead.
# Spoilerific Review
Edge of tomorrow is *G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cRWgjF7aYrFQzrzDK/review-edge-of-tomorrow-2014 |
# Nonspecific discomfort
I think people can often be unhappy not because they have major problems (like an illness or a divorce), but due to "nonspecific discomfort", which arises from many small reasons. Most of the time it stays below the radar, but there's one particular way it can lead to large harm: you feel a gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NdqsKxj3t3H2Qb2q3/nonspecific-discomfort |
# Kids Roaming
Over the last hundred years here, there's been a clear trend down in how far kids can wander at a given age. I think a lot of this comes from the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition): with fewer kids and lower child mortality, previously acceptable risks become ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k5pJEL3eYNt7dmxmv/kids-roaming |
# Improving rationality / scout mindset on a debate group
(Cross-posted from [my Facebook wall](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1526031927760406&id=100010608396052).)
I help run a decent-sized debate group on Facebook focused on arguments for / against religion in general and Orthodox Judaism in par... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P5tikk3TN36prm93i/improving-rationality-scout-mindset-on-a-debate-group |
# Are there substantial research efforts towards aligning narrow AIs?
I am certainly not an expert, but what I have read in the field of AI alignment is almost solely targeted at handling the question of how to make sure that a general AI does not start optimizing for outcomes that humans do not want to happen.
This ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AuA92E3rESZ5sgjYX/are-there-substantial-research-efforts-towards-aligning |
# Quantum particles and classical filaments
The first post in the "From Branes to Brains" series. For the introduction to the series see [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fg46zjCzzvPJXZWRD/from-branes-to-brains-how-mathematical-physics-can-be-used).
In this post, I will mostly follow the ideas from the cla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jwy4kDHNMxxvvbBwD/quantum-particles-and-classical-filaments |
# The Coordination Frontier: Sequence Intro
Sometimes, groups of humans disagree about what to do.
We also sometimes disagree about how to decide what to do.
Sometimes we even disagree about how to decide how to decide.
Among the philosophically unsophisticated, there is a sad, frustrating way this can play out: ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LtsJLfnP4YwhGdaCf/the-coordination-frontier-sequence-intro |
# Acausal Trade and the Ultimatum Game
In the ultimatum game you have two participants. Let's call them Adam and Becky. You offer Adam 100 dollars and tell him he has to split it with Becky. Adam makes an offer to Becky, and Becky can either accept or reject the offer. If she rejects the offer they both get nothing, o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwuZXiBwe2v7NpJLz/acausal-trade-and-the-ultimatum-game |
# Should I treat pain differently if it’s “all in my head?”
I sometimes suffer from [RSI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repetitive_strain_injury). I’ve heard several people I respect say that they think most RSI is a psychological phenomenon. My understanding of their view is that they think there’s a feedback loop wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wJhocuz9iResYCkmb/should-i-treat-pain-differently-if-it-s-all-in-my-head |
# Russian x-risks newsletter summer 2021
There were not many x-risk-related events in this period in Russia.
Covid mortality reached all times high in Russia, despite obvious lies about the number of deaths: they are almost always 799 a day. This is mostly due to the delta variant and failure to vaccinate most people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WSTcvktsxtGs6tftx/russian-x-risks-newsletter-summer-2021 |
# Why there are no online CFAR workshops?
As there are many people here here who attended CFAR workshops, I wanted to ask, if you understand why there are no online workshops, even when the in-person workshops were not possible due to the pandemic. In my experience, everything that does not require physical contact (l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J386RqTNMZ8TsqDaK/why-there-are-no-online-cfar-workshops |
# ACX Meetups: Montreal 09/18
**see description**
Next ACX meetup in Montreal. You will need to be fully vaccinated to attend.
SEE EXACT LOCATION HERE: [https://what3words.com/basis.fines.darling](https://what3words.com/basis.fines.darling)
**Please bring blankets and drinks if you want to have some! **
**If y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/MrdgkfdWPhCx8mmRf/acx-meetups-montreal-09-18-see-description |
# Cliffs Notes: How much should fully vaccinated people care about Long COVID?
Updates
=======
12/29/21: I am not making anything remotely resembling an attempt to document a comprehensive update of this for Omicron, but capturing a few further updates here, mostly for my own reference; maybe you will find them helpf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfHZR6Ykmc5DBSLCp/cliffs-notes-how-much-should-fully-vaccinated-people-care |
# Obstacles to gradient hacking
*\[Epistemic status: brainstorming, still somewhat confused, with a bunch of loose threads left.\]*
This post is essentially the summary of a long discussion on the [EleutherAI discord](https://discord.gg/zBGx3azzUn) about trying to exhibit [gradient hacking](https://www.lesswrong.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfX7Ld7BeCMQn5gbz/obstacles-to-gradient-hacking |
# Kids Learn by Copying
How kids learn fascinates me. They don't do what you tell them to. Obeying orders is an abstract non-instinctual skill. Its simpler to just copy other people.
Plagiarism has advantages over obedience. First of all, it can be bootstrapped. Children are born without understanding language. Nobod... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/97Yv3WyvbZ6pzHC7D/kids-learn-by-copying |
# Bikes and Babies
In MA, the only legal way \[1\] to travel by bike with a baby is with a trailer: they're still too floppy for a child bike seat and the law doesn't consider options involving the box of a [cargo bike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freight_bicycle). Since they're so small, you can use a [car seat](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kpLkL9c7BadqsAkj/bikes-and-babies |
# Bay Solstice looking for volunteers
It’s getting to be that time of year again! The 2021 Bay Area Winter Solstice will be held on Sunday, December 12 (in person, unless it becomes illegal) in the planetarium of the Chabot Space and Science Center in Oakland. [Secular Solstice](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/secular-s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xktSr9RL4KbWByF4u/bay-solstice-looking-for-volunteers |
# How does your data backup solution setup work?
I'm currently not happy with how I'm backing up my data. I feel like doing proper databackup is a bit like flossing every day. It's clearly the "right thing to do" but thinking of it feels like a shore that I don't want to deal with. Does anybody have a personal databac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TPSESMBWegL6qFbsN/how-does-your-data-backup-solution-setup-work |
# A Primer on the Symmetry Theory of Valence
*Crossposted from opentheory.net*
STV is [Qualia Research Institute](https://www.qualiaresearchinstitute.org/)‘s candidate for a universal theory of valence, first proposed in [Principia Qualia (2016)](https://opentheory.net/PrincipiaQualia.pdf). The following is a brief d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dfrQbbv6Np7GuWjDR/a-primer-on-the-symmetry-theory-of-valence |
# What Motte and Baileys are rationalists most likely to engage in?
Motte and Bailey is a concept by Nicholas Shackel that Scott Alexander has [popularised](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/). He describes this as follows:
> The original Shackel paper is intended as a critiq... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8KRqc9oGSLry2qS9e/what-motte-and-baileys-are-rationalists-most-likely-to |
# Lots of Hooks
The entryway had gotten pretty messy, with a lot of things scattered on the horizontal surfaces. We decided to put up some hooks, to move things onto the vertical services. I used some trim that I'd saved from an [earlier project](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bathroom-construction-update), cut it to width,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/reSHp4kieFFQz94Tf/lots-of-hooks |
# Three Principles to Writing Original Nonfiction
If you like reading then you should write too.
# Three Things Writing Will Do For You
1. **Writing makes you smarter.** Thoughts are ephemeral, fast and fleeting. Writing is frozen thought. It is easier to determine if an idea that is written down than an idea that i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5KDB2iAQmqB9t2giC/three-principles-to-writing-original-nonfiction |
# How much should we value life?
Until recently, I've largely ignored the question of how long I expect to live, and similarly, how much value I place on my life. Why? For starters, thinking about mortality is scary, and I don't like to do things that are scary unless the benefits outweigh the cost.
So, do they? My a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2PA8GcKHzGQWeG74/how-much-should-we-value-life |
# I read “White Fragility” so you don’t have to (but maybe you should)
*\[I use “we”/“us”/“our”/etc. to refer to white people throughout this review because I am white and because this book is deliberately targeted toward and attempts to describe a white readership.\]*
In [*White Fragility*](https://bookshop.org/a/70... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pqa7s3m9CZ98FgmGT/i-read-white-fragility-so-you-don-t-have-to-but-maybe-you |
# Coordination Schemes Are Capital Investments
*Second post in the Coordination Frontier sequence. Intro is* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LtsJLfnP4YwhGdaCf/the-coordination-frontier-sequence-intro)*.*
Once upon a time, we didn’t have money, or auctions, or markets. We didn’t have the concept of voting (le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LGsLuTuipcjXEuMjK/coordination-schemes-are-capital-investments |
# LessWrong is providing feedback and proofreading on drafts as a service
*This announcement follows the* [*Amazon PR/FAQ format*](https://medium.com/agileinsider/press-releases-for-product-managers-everything-you-need-to-know-942485961e31)*. This is an actual feature announcement.*
TL;DR
=====
Before one publishes ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsCwdYJEpmW5Hw5Xm/lesswrong-is-providing-feedback-and-proofreading-on-drafts |
# Wanted: Chief of Staff for The Roots of Progress
I’m hiring a Chief of Staff for [The Roots of Progress](https://rootsofprogress.org/), a “right hand” who will be deeply involved in and support everything I do.
This role needs no formal training or specific prior experience. It requires attention to detail, crisp c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnSWxAmemCKhYBuf4/wanted-chief-of-staff-for-the-roots-of-progress |
# Bay Area Winter Solstice 2021
Join us on Sunday, December 12th to celebrate humanity and reflect on our place in the universe. We'll sing songs, hear speeches, and appreciate the fact that we can gather together in person.
**TICKETS:**
Tickets are pay-what-you-want, and are available [on Eventbrite](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/haeiZp49c4KpJZisB/bay-area-winter-solstice-2021 |
# Conflict in Kriorus becomes hot today, updated, update 2
For a long time, Russian cryocompany Kriorus suffered from a conflict between two groups of owners. One is led by Danila Medvedev and the other is led by his former wife Valeria Pride. Long story short, Valeria took neuropatients (including my mother's brain) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ecNpCZN3GE7y7i5WZ/conflict-in-kriorus-becomes-hot-today-updated-update-2 |
# The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
This is the second post in a series explaining my view that we could be in the most important century of all time. [Here's the roadmap for this ser... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHYjpEpdCcBbDYHkC/the-duplicator-instant-cloning-would-make-the-world-economy |
# Assigning probabilities to metaphysical ideas
Take all the metaphysical models of the universe that any human ever considers.
Say there are n number of mutually-incompatible ones. I don't have a good definition of this, so our estimates will vary by orders of magnitude.
Start with 1:1 odds, or a 50% chance th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptBKiBXvgn6KtjGJm/assigning-probabilities-to-metaphysical-ideas |
# Bayeswatch 7: Wildfire
"You don't seem surprised," said Vi.
"The very existence of Bayeswatch increases the odds of catastrophic disaster. The world is like a forest. Put out the little fires and detritus accumulates until every spark causes a conflagration," said Miriam.
Around the world, 99% of Internet-connecte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHanKgEsFFJxAZhBp/bayeswatch-7-wildfire |
# Sam Altman Q&A Notes - Aftermath
To me it was quite painful when I found out after the first one of Sam Altman's Q&As that there was no recording and no way for me to find out what had been said. Which is why this time around I took notes and shared them here to help out people in the same situation.
This was initi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kRHcRpBrKGQj6NDWL/sam-altman-q-and-a-notes-aftermath |
# Distinguishing AI takeover scenarios
_Epistemic status: lots of this involves interpreting/categorising other people’s scenarios, and could be wrong. We’d really appreciate being corrected if so. [ETA: so far, no corrections.]_
**TLDR**: see the [summary table](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qYzqDtoQaZ3eDDyxa/dist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qYzqDtoQaZ3eDDyxa/distinguishing-ai-takeover-scenarios |
# Gradient descent is not just more efficient genetic algorithms
I think one common intuition when thinking about gradient descent (GD) is to think about it as more efficient genetic algorithms (GAs). I certainly used to think this way—after all, taking a bunch of random mutations and keeping the ones that work well s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c9NSeCapaKtP6kvQD/gradient-descent-is-not-just-more-efficient-genetic |
# Jonathan Blow at the AstralCodexTen Online Meetup
Jonathan Blow will be joining us for Q&A on Sunday September 19 at 10:30 Pacific Daylight Time, 20:30 Israel Daylight Time, 17:30 UTC.
Designer of acclaimed games including *Braid* and *The Witness*, Jonathan Blow is currently working on the programming language Ja... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/dT6ZtZPG63WFEGEvY/jonathan-blow-at-the-astralcodexten-online-meetup |
# [AN #163]: Using finite factored sets for causal and temporal inference
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Hxa6pxRrxkwjBKib/an-163-using-finite-factored-sets-for-causal-and-temporal |
# Countably Factored Spaces
A followup to Scott's "Finite Factored Sets", specifically the Applications part at the end where he talked about the [infinite case](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/kxs3eeEti9ouwWFzr/p/yGFiw23pJ32obgLbw#7_2__Infinity).
As it turns out, there's a natural-seeming (at least to my mathematic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEfbg6vbjGgfFzJM4/countably-factored-spaces |
# Pleasure and Pain are Long-Tailed
This post is derived from [*Logarithmic Scales of Pleasure and Pain*](https://www.qualiaresearchinstitute.org/blog/log-scales) by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://www.qualiaresearchinstitute.org/). Thank you [Romeo Stevens](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/romeostevensit) for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zngNroAj62y4FWaAM/pleasure-and-pain-are-long-tailed |
# D&D.Sci Pathfinder: Return of the Gray Swan Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a followup to [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycG3mrtdqddCkK9et/d-and-d-sci-pathfinder-return-of-the-gray-swan); if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
RULESET
=======
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QR8HrbHTQrzB579JY/d-and-d-sci-pathfinder-return-of-the-gray-swan-evaluation |
# Covid 9/9: Passing the Peak
Labor day muddies the data a bit, but it seems that Alex Tabarrok was correct and the current wave has peaked. We could well be facing another peak in December due to seasonality. We might also have issues from schools, although as you’ll see later they’re taking extreme precautions and a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CoZitvxi2ru9ehypC/covid-9-9-passing-the-peak |
# Thinking About College Funding
A few years ago [I wrote](https://www.jefftk.com/p/college-and-earning-to-give) about how, if you're trying to decide between direct work and earning to give, the college price discrimination system of financial aid can push towards direct work. It's a bit of a niche thing, since it re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgtTBGuGcmFdox2Re/thinking-about-college-funding |
# The alignment problem in different capability regimes
I think the alignment problem looks different depending on the capability level of systems you’re trying to align. And I think that different researchers often have different capability levels in mind when they talk about the alignment problem. I think this leads... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HHunb8FPnhWaDAQci/the-alignment-problem-in-different-capability-regimes |
# You can get feedback on ideas and external drafts too
Due to some editor bugs that only affect admins, a few crucial edits were missing from the recent announcement that [LessWrong is providing feedback and proofreading on drafts as a service.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsCwdYJEpmW5Hw5Xm/lesswrong-is-providing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PioKdsZpLZcK75gqy/you-can-get-feedback-on-ideas-and-external-drafts-too |
# Framing Practicum: Comparative Advantage
This is a [framing practicum](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Fu7Euu3F96rKhFRWH) post. We’ll talk about what comparative advantage is, how to recognize applications of comparative advantage in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ry5MvG9zstkQvEuH5/framing-practicum-comparative-advantage |
# The Best Software For Every Need
When I first started programming, I didn't use a terminal multiplexer and finding tmux was a sort of revelation. I joked once on discord that "life before tmux was not life". It strikes me there are probably many other programs that I am not aware of that would be useful to know abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zHS4FJhByRjqsuH4o/the-best-software-for-every-need |
# The Blackwell order as a formalization of knowledge
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome further* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: I’m 90% sure that this post faithfully relates the content of the paper that it reviews.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wEjozSY9rhkpAaABt/the-blackwell-order-as-a-formalization-of-knowledge |
# Bayeswatch 8: Antimatter
Vi woke up to the sound of Miriam disassembling the scout's control system.
"Please tell me you're not scuttling our ride home," said Vi.
"I'm not scuttling our ride home. Vaccinate yourself in case this leads to another Z-Day," said Miriam.
The suitcase was labeled with an orthonormal cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ifs3ycQYMLdAhgsuJ/bayeswatch-8-antimatter |
# How do you decide when to change N95/FFP-2 masks?
I lack a gears model of how N95/FFP-2 masks works that tells me when it makes sense to change to a new mask. The same goes into how to interact with the mask to maximize it's Does someone have a gears model and a got idea when it makes sense to change masks to a new ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3eQdWmZHCpgqmyjuc/how-do-you-decide-when-to-change-n95-ffp-2-masks |
# Handling Identical USB Sound Cards
My [Pi Sound Box](https://www.jefftk.com/p/pi-sound-box) has two output channels, each on a [USB sound card](https://smile.amazon.com/Sabrent-External-Adapter-Windows-AU-MMSA/dp/B00IRVQ0F8/). One has a mic input and runs my [whistle synth](https://github.com/jeffkaufman/whistle-syn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wxwDeQAyRd5BLwfzE/handling-identical-usb-sound-cards |
# Paths To High-Level Machine Intelligence
*This post is part 3 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. We are building a model to understand debates around existential risks from advanced AI. The model is made with* [*Analytica*](https://en.wikiped... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/amK9EqxALJXyd9Rb2/paths-to-high-level-machine-intelligence |
# Measurement, Optimization, and Take-off Speed
*Crossposted from my blog,* [*Bounded Regret*](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/measurement-and-optimization/)*.*
In machine learning, we are obsessed with datasets and metrics: progress in areas as diverse as natural language understanding, object recognition, and reinf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u4mFjCPviXHAPjZK7/measurement-optimization-and-take-off-speed |
# Does Diverse News Decrease Polarization?
This is the third in a series of posts studying how Facebook's newsfeed affects political polarization. To recap:
* In the [first](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/recsys-deepdive/) post, I showed that polarization trends in the U.S. don't coincide with social media adoptio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThDnoLtBXCe7FMfSz/does-diverse-news-decrease-polarization |
# Bayeswatch 9: Zombies
Vi took a taxi to the outside of the Natanz fortress. She left her cornea and other electronics with Miriam on the scout ship. Vi walked up the to soldier standing guard at the front gate. She caught his eye. Then she stepped over the road spikes into the compound.
The soldier shouted somethin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTYGsnAb9HZsLCmgk/bayeswatch-9-zombies |
# Prefer the British Style of Quotation Mark Punctuation over the American
There are different ways of combining quotation and punctuation marks. In the **American style**, you almost always put periods and commas inside the quotation marks:
> Dr Johnson kicked a large rock and said, as his foot rebounded, "I refute ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3S8iiThH9QLysLtYL/prefer-the-british-style-of-quotation-mark-punctuation-over |
# Is MIRI's reading list up to date?
Question especially for MIRI folks:
The [MIRI reading list](https://intelligence.org/research-guide/) has not changed very much in several years. But MIRI-associated researchers have been producing what appears to be a significant number of new research directions - for example, [... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QbaNuNmCKd4YoL6QG/is-miri-s-reading-list-up-to-date |
# Pack a travel bathroom bag
About a year ago, I realized that packing all my bathroom stuff was one of the more difficult and annoying and error-prone parts of packing for travel. So, without planning on going anywhere, I packed my travel bathroom bag.
This bag had all the things I was previously likely to forget – ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/chrWAEuiqRYBHsnnp/pack-a-travel-bathroom-bag |
# Childcare III
[Four](https://www.jefftk.com/p/childcare-ii) and [six](https://www.jefftk.com/p/childcare) years ago I wrote posts describing what we had tried for childcare. Now that the kids are older (7y and 5y), I can ask them what they liked and didn't. Both of gave the same order:
1. Us or someone else (au pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KvB55pfz4C6oyBP7H/childcare-iii |
# Equal Parenting Advice for Dads
*I originally posted this 2019-05-12 [on my personal site](https://www.jefftk.com/p/equal-parenting-advice-for-dads), before I'd set up automatic crossposting. On yesterday's [post about childcare](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KvB55pfz4C6oyBP7H/childcare-iii) [Gunnar_Zarncke](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pEyh8u8qgWdHEaf6C/equal-parenting-advice-for-dads |
# What I've been doing instead of writing
I’ve been too busy with work to write much recently, but in lieu of that, here’s a batch of links to other stuff I’ve been doing elsewhere.
The thing I’m most excited about:
* [Wave raises $200m from Sequoia, Stripe, Founders Fund and Ribbit at a $1.7b valuation](https://t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KwkdKeLCyQ48Yo6C3/what-i-ve-been-doing-instead-of-writing |
# Review of A Map that Reflects the Territory
I had read about lesswrong.com on Scott Aaaronon's blog but never read it. Then there was an offer to review A Map that Reflects the Territory which (as you prob know) is a collection of lesswrong essays.
I originally had just a link to my review, which I still have in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JXTEDFCC5r4dW2tta/review-of-a-map-that-reflects-the-territory |
# How factories were made safe
Angelo Guira was just sixteen years old when he began working in the steel factory. He was a “trough boy,” and his job was to stand at one end of the trough where red-hot steel pipes were dropped. Every time a pipe fell, he pulled a lever that dumped the pipe onto a cooling bed. He was a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQKgYhEYP86PLW7tZ/how-factories-were-made-safe |
# EA Forum Creative Writing Contest: $10,000 in prizes for good stories
We just launched a [creative writing contest](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JFiHewypFB2niuy2G/ea-forum-creative-writing-contest-usd10-000-in-prizes-for) on the Effective Altruism Forum. Stories like HPMOR and The Fable of the Dragon-Ty... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SJNYMtRGxrZGzvAMb/ea-forum-creative-writing-contest-usd10-000-in-prizes-for |
# [linkpost] The Psychological Economy of Inaction by William Gillis
William Gillis is an excellent essayist, LessWrong amongst their influences, who doesn't post on LessWrong.
I wanted to open up a dialogue about their new essay to see what commenters here have to say, it's just under 2k words.
Gillis is a compelli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5YEfoPsEYcTguh7FA/linkpost-the-psychological-economy-of-inaction-by-william |
# Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
This is the third post in a series explaining my view th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/twEFb7Qz9ZEMZCPdM/digital-people-would-be-an-even-bigger-deal |
# Digital People FAQ
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
This is a companion piece to [Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jDtdjTLMAQLZjPuBn/digital-people-faq |
# LessWrong is paying $500 for Book Reviews
*Kudos to* [*Kelsey Piper*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/kpier) *and* [*Buck*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/buck) *for this idea. See* [*Buck’s shortform post*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Soutcw6ccs8xxyD7v/buck-s-shortform?commentId=LoSrFqCRuAyypeNvm) *f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eHnupDgggBqDqT5eg/lesswrong-is-paying-usd500-for-book-reviews |
# Is there a beeminder without the punishment?
I used Beeminder for a few months and found it extremely effective. However, a huge pain point of mine was forgetting to manually log the datapoints since a lot of my goals couldn't be logged automatically. This involved having to message their support e-mail each time. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qzApnTGjWB6PZRb9n/is-there-a-beeminder-without-the-punishment |
# GPT-Augmented Blogging
**This post was an exercise to find out how much of writing an article I could offload to a machine. In this post, anything written by me is in bold. Anything written by GPT-3 is in regular font. Headings and subheadings are a mix. The GPT-3 output is often highly-curated. Sometimes it is even... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z4MRNwkWqbQDxhTrT/gpt-augmented-blogging |
# Film Study for Research
*Crossposted from my blog,* [*Bounded Regret*](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/film-study/)*.*
Research ability, like most tasks, is a trainable skill. However, while PhD students and other researchers spend a lot of time *doing* research, we often don't spend enough time training our resear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MXxd2qjxXTracjvwC/film-study-for-research |
# The Motivated Reasoning Critique of Effective Altruism
I sketch out a plausible critique of effective altruism based on priors of how commonplace motivated reasoning is in the world at large, updated priors based on specific features of the effective altruism community, and some empirical evidence of observed motiva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J6t5HtedJmpdGTzDE/the-motivated-reasoning-critique-of-effective-altruism |
# Oracle predictions don't apply to non-existent worlds
In this post, I hope to persuade you of what I consider to be an important principle when dealing with decision theory and counterfactuals.
Joe Carlsmith describes the [Yankees vs. Red Sox Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PcfHSSAMNFMgdqFyB/can-you-contro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/psyhmuDhazzFJKjXf/oracle-predictions-don-t-apply-to-non-existent-worlds |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Psychomagic | Chapter 1: Affect
*This is a Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality fan-fiction which contains spoilers. If you haven't, you should* [*read*](http://www.hpmor.com/) *or* [*listen*](https://hpmorpodcast.com/?page_id=56) *to Eliezer Yudkowsky's original work before re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AodrQzsDtm97PFZx2/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-psychomagic-or-chapter-1 |
# [AN #164]: How well can language models write code?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p8xcZerxHWi4nLorx/an-164-how-well-can-language-models-write-code |
# Austin Petrov Day and Potluck
**Time**: Doors open 6pm, ceremony tentatively starting at 7pm
**Location**: Private Austin residence; contact an [Austin organizer](https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/syf4gEbaNQ8btKCbb) with bio for address.
Every year the Austin LW/SSC group holds a Petrov Day ceremony. (Last yea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/siaqKf77SNNyu8t5H/austin-petrov-day-and-potluck |
# History of counting to three?
Counting to three is a common way to indicate to kids that you're being serious and they need to do what you're saying, and I find it helpful [with my kids](https://www.jefftk.com/p/how-to-parent-more-predictably). It's associated with Thomas Phelan's [1995](https://www.google.com/books... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wP8ZtKdqGqCvt5FJA/history-of-counting-to-three |
# [inactive] £2000 bounty - contraceptives (and UTI) literature review
edit: No longer active
I would like if there was a well-researched LessWrong post on the pros and cons of different contraceptives. - Same deal with a good post on how to treat or prevent urinary tract infection, although I'm less excited about th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fyevhPhqbJpsgC35o/inactive-gbp2000-bounty-contraceptives-and-uti-literature |
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