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# Optimizing Multiple Imperfect Filters
Imagine we’re in the quality control department of a widget-production company. Our widgets have quite high standards - they go through 15 independent tests, and if a widget fails any test, it’s thrown out. Of course, the tests aren’t perfect: there are false positives and false... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u5oo5vtenJk7DrAuD/optimizing-multiple-imperfect-filters |
# “Who’s In Charge? Free Will and the Science of the Brain”
If everything, including you and me, is made up of material that blindly obeys the inflexible laws of physics, then everything that happens, including what you and I do, is inevitable, and free will is something of an illusion or a joke.
Right?
Or are we ju... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaqWrWkXQ3aZiSRXt/who-s-in-charge-free-will-and-the-science-of-the-brain |
# I wanted to interview Eliezer Yudkowsky but he's busy so I simulated him instead
Edit: All of the "Lsusr" lines were written by me. All of the "Eliezer Yudkowsky" lines were written by GPT-3. However the Yudkowsky lines were also cherry picked. I ran several iterations, sometimes modifying my prompts, until I got go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDMoMvw2PYgijqZCC/i-wanted-to-interview-eliezer-yudkowsky-but-he-s-busy-so-i |
# How truthful is GPT-3? A benchmark for language models
This is an edited excerpt of a new ML paper ([pdf](https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07958), [code](https://github.com/sylinrl/TruthfulQA)) by Stephanie Lin (FHI Oxford), [Jacob Hilton](https://www.jacobh.co.uk/) (OpenAI) and [Owain Evans](https://owainevans.github.io/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PF58wEdztZFX2dSue/how-truthful-is-gpt-3-a-benchmark-for-language-models |
# Counterfactual Contracts
(Cross-posted from my blog)
### 1.
Imagine coming home from work (back when that was a thing). As you walk in the door, your roommate says “Hey! I bought you a burrito for dinner, mind paying me back?” Some possible responses:
“Thanks! That’s exactly what I wanted for dinner, I will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BRHAWp7T3srrcuWDS/counterfactual-contracts |
# Dating Minefield vs. Dating Playground
*Crossposted from* [*Optimized Dating*](https://optimizeddating.substack.com/p/dating-minefield-vs-dating-playground)*.*
Imagine you want to improve your performance at some task, hobby or a job. You get offered a choice of two courses:
**Course A** is really vague and undefi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wueuETzExFjYEFkQE/dating-minefield-vs-dating-playground |
# Economic AI Safety
*Crossposted from my blog,* [*Bounded Regret*](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/economic-ai-safety/)*.*
There is a growing fear that algorithmic recommender systems, such as Facebook, Youtube, Netflix, and Amazon, are having negative effects on society, for instance by manipulating users into beha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RLcEQtoc5EqTxdan8/economic-ai-safety |
# Comments on Jacob Falkovich on loneliness
Two years ago, Jacob wrote an [essay about dating, sex, and loneliness](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7hC2h5RSPfMgdbzzr/go-f-someone). I found this essay recently because I am extremely interested in loneliness. It seems to me that a great deal of work is needed to resolve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xzd3urJJq6KfWBPWP/comments-on-jacob-falkovich-on-loneliness |
# Jitters No Evidence of Stupidity in RL
_Epistemic status: Pretty sure about core, not about edges_
A while ago, I noticed a possible bias in how I evaluated reinforcement learning agents. It tended to cause me to revise my estimation of their intelligence downwards, after I viewed a video of them in action.
I've s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fx8gCJu5zuLdZezTN/jitters-no-evidence-of-stupidity-in-rl |
# Writing On The Pareto Frontier
I have a personal rule: don’t write something which someone else has already written better.
This is easier than it sounds. For instance, suppose I’m writing an intro to systems biology. I don’t need it to be the most comprehensive intro ever written, or the most accessible intro. I j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SLXCn6hZgcS9Mpxmf/writing-on-the-pareto-frontier |
# Research speedruns
The 'research speedrun' is a format that I've been playing with on my blog for the last year or so. It's been more popular than I expected and it looks like there's a lot more that could be done with the idea. So I thought I'd write it up here and see if anyone else wants to experiment with it the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z7wEwhzKJb4DiYfLz/research-speedruns-1 |
# How feeling more secure feels different than I expected
This year, I’ve been feeling more emotionally secure, thanks to various kinds of internal and external work (the stuff at https://attachmentrepair.com/ being one notable example).
The effect of this doesn’t always feel like I expected it to feel.
I once thoug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLSJHJzRjLjRuQ3us/how-feeling-more-secure-feels-different-than-i-expected |
# Covid 9/17: Done Biden His Time
No more mister nice guy. The dude will not a-Biden. All this vaccine hesitancy is a bunch of malarkey. If you’re not vaccinated, the President is mad as hell and he’s not going to take it anymore.
The question then becomes, what is he gonna do about it, under what authority, and wha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JNiBPKhopmfYshH2c/covid-9-17-done-biden-his-time-1 |
# Great Power Conflict
*Crossposted from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nY8kMfZjEYEuLcKHA/great-power-conflict).*
_No longer endorsed._
Imagine it's 2030 or 2040 and there's a catastrophic great power conflict. What caused it? Probably AI and emerging technology, directly or indirectly. But... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/47pqaDPCmzQBTFija/great-power-conflict |
# Immobile AI makes a move: anti-wireheading, ontology change, and model splintering
## Research projects
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) and [lear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZqSESJYcA8m2Hh7Qm/immobile-ai-makes-a-move-anti-wireheading-ontology-change |
# Goodhart Ethology
To answer your first question, ethology is the study of animal behavior in the wild.
**I - Introduction**
In this post I take a long, rambly tour of some of the places we want to apply the notion of Goodhart's law to value learning. We'll get through curve fitting, supervised and self-supervised ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2BPxcFfhKho89D8L/goodhart-ethology |
# Investigating AI Takeover Scenarios
*Epistemic status: lots of this involves interpreting/categorising other people’s scenarios, and could be wrong. We’d really appreciate being corrected if so.*
**TLDR**: see the [summary table](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zkF9PNSyDKusoyLkP/investigating-ai-takeover-scenarios#... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zkF9PNSyDKusoyLkP/investigating-ai-takeover-scenarios |
# What should one's policy regarding dental xrays be?
[A small Kuwaiti study](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3109/02841861003705778) used a conditional regression to found that x-rays are an increased risk factor for thyroid cancer (n=313, odds ratio = 2.1, 95% confidence interval: 1.4, 3.1) using a case-matc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JKYNBL5KHgiYDZ6H7/what-should-one-s-policy-regarding-dental-xrays-be |
# Truth + Reason = The True Religion?
[William Wollaston’s *The Religion of Nature Delineated*](https://standardebooks.org/ebooks/william-wollaston/the-religion-of-nature-delineated) (1722) helped to launch “The Age of Reason.” It anticipated Kant’s Categorical Imperative, described and defended what we would now call... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P75rzmpJ62E2Qfr3A/truth-reason-the-true-religion |
# The theory-practice gap
\[Thanks to Richard Ngo, Damon Binder, Summer Yue, Nate Thomas, Ajeya Cotra, Alex Turner, and other Redwood Research people for helpful comments; thanks Ruby Bloom for formatting this for the Alignment Forum for me.\]
I'm going to draw a picture, piece by piece. I want to talk about the capa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xRyLxfytmLFZ6qz5s/the-theory-practice-gap |
# Book review: The Checklist Manifesto
Atul Gawande’s *The Checklist Manifesto* was originally published in 2009. By the time I read it a few years ago, the hard-earned lessons explained in this book had already trickled into hospitals across North America. It’s easy to look at the core concept and think of it as triv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dtmmP4YdJEfK9y4Rc/book-review-the-checklist-manifesto |
# Kids Moving Pictures
When I went back to work after my leave with Lily I wanted to be able to show people pictures, so I set up a site that would show [moving ones](https://www.lilywise.com/moving-photos). As she got older, I added new sets, and I've since made pages for [Anna](https://www.annakaufmanwise.com/moving... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrDWjSPffuZ5pCriD/kids-moving-pictures |
# Simulated Elon Musk Lives in a Simulation
All of the "Lsusr" lines were written by me unless marked "[simulated]", in which case they were written by GPT-3. All of the "Elon Musk" lines, including the final line, were written by GPT-3. The GPT-3 lines were curated. I often rolled several different responses and kept... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oBPPFrMJ2aBK6a6sD/simulated-elon-musk-lives-in-a-simulation |
# Norm Innovation and Theory of Mind
*Disclaimer: this was the first concept that led to me thinking about the coordination frontier. But I think something on the frame here feels subtly off. I decided to go ahead and post it – I'm pretty sure I believe all the words here. But not 100% sure this is the best way to thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vA6xB98jCCX23KzLf/norm-innovation-and-theory-of-mind |
# This Can't Go On
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
This piece starts to make the case that **we live in a remarkable century, not just a remarkable era.** Previous pieces in this [series](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yHzDrTCum4rdNRDJJ/the-most-imp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5FZxhdi6hZp8QwK7k/this-can-t-go-on |
# What is the evidence on the Church-Turing Thesis?
Why do you believe that everything "effectively computable" can be computed by a Turing machine? In the same vein: How would you recognize this to be false?
I don't particularly doubt that this is true. But I want to get a better gears level understanding for why th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Jr7mBkQiuGEXWgxC/what-is-the-evidence-on-the-church-turing-thesis |
# Where do your eyes go?
\[Shoutout to the LW team for very helpful (and free!) [feedback](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsCwdYJEpmW5Hw5Xm/lesswrong-is-providing-feedback-and-proofreading-on-drafts) on this post.\]
I. Prelude
----------
When my wife first started playing the wonderful action roguelike [Hades](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gCz7cB6JG66EhweSS/where-do-your-eyes-go |
# Testing The Natural Abstraction Hypothesis: Project Update
I set myself six months to focus primarily on [the Natural Abstraction Hypothesis project](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy3BhHrGinZCp3LXE/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-intro) before stopping to re-evaluate. It’s been about six months ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dNzhdiFE398KcGDc9/testing-the-natural-abstraction-hypothesis-project-update |
# [Book Review] "The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian
I came to this book with [an ax to grind](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZYDkHWjShKazTywbg/review-the-alignment-problem-by-brian-christian?commentId=CwaL3brZi5QbeLrtt). I combed through page after page for factual errors, minor misrepresentations or even just... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZYDkHWjShKazTywbg/book-review-the-alignment-problem-by-brian-christian |
# Sigmoids behaving badly: arXiv paper
Building on a [previous post on the unpredictability of sigmoid curves](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tErqpd2tDcpiBrX9/why-sigmoids-are-so-hard-to-predict), we have a [paper on the arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08065) explaining why it is so hard to predict their inflectio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2FEdsKBzqghgkpkiM/sigmoids-behaving-badly-arxiv-paper |
# How much should you be willing to pay for an AGI?
Having spent quite a bit of time with GPT-3, my feelings can be expressed as:
> This is really awesome, but it would be even better if it didn't cost $0.06 per character.
GPT-3 is slightly too expensive for many of the use-cases that I am interested in. This probl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CjnenD4AcFa7SDRCf/how-much-should-you-be-willing-to-pay-for-an-agi |
# AI, learn to be conservative, then learn to be less so: reducing side-effects, learning preserved features, and going beyond conservatism
## Research projects
I'm planning to start two research projects on [model splintering/reward generalisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2XyxomuEpMaRYDQw/ai-learn-to-be-conservative-then-learn-to-be-less-so |
# Ordinary People and Extraordinary Evil: A Report on the Beguilings of Evil
In *Ordinary People and Extraordinary Evil: A Report on the Beguilings of Evil* (1993), Fred E. Katz begins where Hannah Arendt’s examination of the banality of evil ended. Katz tries to apply the techniques of sociology to the question of ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xGizvjx2tfG6wJC3s/ordinary-people-and-extraordinary-evil-a-report-on-the |
# Announcing the Vitalik Buterin Fellowships in AI Existential Safety!
_Epistemic status: describing fellowships that I am helping with the administration of._
_Edit 2021-10-04: Modified to reflect changed eligibility+stipend conditions._
The Future of Life Institute is launching new [PhD](https://grants.futureoflif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hSdgugekxgdyacXTu/announcing-the-vitalik-buterin-fellowships-in-ai-existential |
# David Wolpert on Knowledge
*Financial status: This is independent research, now supported by a grant. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: I’m 85% sure that this post faithfully relates the content of the paper that it reviews.*
---
David Wolpert has written... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hPPGuiXf3zhKqgCMb/david-wolpert-on-knowledge |
# Three enigmas at the heart of our reasoning
*Financial status: This is independent research supported by a grant. I welcome* [*additional support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Epistemic status: Reflections from personal experience.*
 to my [critique](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fSNp942XBztB352fn/we-still-don-t-know-if-masks-work) of their [paper](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.16.21258817... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iBFThJGupS6B5HL3r/the-effectiveness-of-masks-is-limited |
# GiveWell Donation Matching
About a year ago, GiveWell [announced](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/06/25/why-youll-see-more-matching-campaigns-at-givewell/) they were going to be offering donation matching. I missed this at the time, but now that I see it I'm disappointed. They intend to offer a "true" match, where do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utpGZBWQXkGT3Lotv/givewell-donation-matching |
# Redwood Research’s current project
Here’s a description of the project [Redwood Research](http://redwoodresearch.org) is working on at the moment. First I’ll say roughly what we’re doing, and then I’ll try to explain why I think this is a reasonable applied alignment project, and then I’ll talk a bit about the takea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k7oxdbNaGATZbtEg3/redwood-research-s-current-project |
# Petrov Day 2021: Mutually Assured Destruction?
Pictured Left: *Enter launch codes to destroy the EA Forum*
Pictured Right: *Enter launch codes to destroy LessWrong*
Petrov Day
==========
[Today we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EW8yZYcu3Kff2qShS/petrov-day-2021-mutually-assured-destruction |
# Insights from Modern Principles of Economics
How good are our economists? Look around. On a 20-minute walk to my Berkeley office, I walked past people reeking of urine, past people lying in a dirty sleeping bag on a thin cardboard pad, past some garbage around a tent which housed a child who grew up into an impoveri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hRa5c5GaMNkNGtnXq/insights-from-modern-principles-of-economics |
# How do you learn to take more beautiful pictures with a camera?
When I see professionally made photos, I can see that they look different and better then pictures I randomly take. I however have no idea how to aquire that skill. Has anyone here learned how to take good photographs and an idea of what's the easiest w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/scTF2CXaKvjDiKJyZ/how-do-you-learn-to-take-more-beautiful-pictures-with-a |
# [AN #165]: When large models are more likely to lie
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NR4rgfKu63TcqLxcH/an-165-when-large-models-are-more-likely-to-lie |
# Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 1
*This article is the script of the video linked above. ~~It differs slightly from the video due to some phrasing changes in the narration ~~ \[now it's exactly the narration\]. Here, I aim to explain the rationale for Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model. In short,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RrG8F9SsfpEk9P8yi/robin-hanson-s-grabby-aliens-model-explained-part-1 |
# [Summary] "Introduction to Electrodynamics" by David Griffiths - Part 1
**Epistemic Status:** The mathematical formulation of electromagnetism is the most solidly established theory in all of science. If this book is wrong then science is broken to the core, space is flat, Colombus' landing in the New World was fake... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BmEb5js3BHSATJMpM/summary-introduction-to-electrodynamics-by-david-griffiths |
# How dangerous is Long COVID for kids?
All adults in my family are already vaccinated. But I also have two kids, age 6 and 3, who are not. The older one needs to wait a few months until the child vaccine is approved. The younger one will probably have to wait more than a year, because as far as I know the child COVID... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/skj8XhdFf662qhSGH/how-dangerous-is-long-covid-for-kids |
# [Book Review] Altered Traits
[Edit 2025-11-29: I wrote this post when I was very new to meditation, long before experiencing stream entry.]
Proponents of meditation claim it causes long-term beneficial changes to a person's mind. Does it? *Altered Traits: Science Reveals How Meditation Changes Your Mind, Brain, an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tvuLWPJXjvoQfpbSG/book-review-altered-traits-1 |
# Neural net / decision tree hybrids: a potential path toward bridging the interpretability gap
Neural net / decision tree hybrids: a potential path toward bridging the interpretability gap
================================================================================================
*\[Meta: I feel pretty confi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7vcZTHzjCFE8SbjWF/neural-net-decision-tree-hybrids-a-potential-path-toward |
# Covid 9/23: There Is a War
The FDA, having observed and accepted conclusive evidence that booster shots are highly effective, has rejected allowing people to get those booster shots unless they are over the age of 65, are immunocompromised or high risk, or are willing to lie on a form. The CDC will probably concur. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3hjMFGdnBLrzfaQJr/covid-9-23-there-is-a-war-1 |
# What is Compute? - Transformative AI and Compute [1/4]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BHPxe8YuuJ4SZWAF3/what-is-compute-transformative-ai-and-compute-1-4)*.
_Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach - Part 1 out of 4_
This is part one of the series _Trans... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uYXAv6Audr2y4ytJe/what-is-compute-transformative-ai-and-compute-1-4 |
# How's it going with the Universal Cultural Takeover? Part I
Warning: this is a long post, split over two parts. [Part II is here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uoCd8WEaW9htcnDfb/how-s-it-going-with-the-universal-cultural-takeover-part-ii).
[David Reinstein](https://anchor.fm/david-reinstein/) points me at a 2016 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hXPbwj5E3qfdZn5Pe/how-s-it-going-with-the-universal-cultural-takeover-part-i-1 |
# Review: Martyr Made Podcast
Introduction
============
Sometimes I consume media that makes factual claims. Sometimes I look up some of these claims to see how much trust I should place in said media, in a series I call epistemic spot checks. Over the years, I’ve gone [back and forth](https://acesounderglass.com/201... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t4Fw9PmQf7M4LPt6b/review-martyr-made-podcast |
# Shared Frames Are Capital Investments in Coordination
Shared Frames Are Coordination Tools
------------------------------------
When Claude Shannon invented information theory, he was working at Bell Labs. Naturally, the new theory was applied to Bell’s telephone system quite quickly. But information theory itself ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkxxfdCukyGuyKXQQ/shared-frames-are-capital-investments-in-coordination |
# Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?
### PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement.
*Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"*
 a few weeks ago, Cullyn [suggested](https://www.jefftk.com/p/kids-roaming#fb-10100228286039782) walkie-talkies as a way to keep in touch with kids who are out of sight. This wasn't something I had thought about at all: my only ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nZqYiQkycfcHEfqtf/walkie-talkies |
# Cartesian Frames and Factored Sets on ArXiv
Papers on Cartesian frames and factored sets are now on arXiv.
Cartesian Frames: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.10996](https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.10996)
Factored Sets: [https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.11513](https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.11513)
The factored set paper is approxima... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnWQ4o7Y4HryE5ffN/cartesian-frames-and-factored-sets-on-arxiv |
# Book Review: Who We Are and How We Got Here
It's rare to read a popular science book that's both factually accurate and engaging, but David Reich offers an excellent example of how to do that.
The book explores the newly emerging field of ancient DNA. Using techniques that are less than a decade old, we can now se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hszFP4W7npF4hWxcc/book-review-who-we-are-and-how-we-got-here |
# Common knowledge about Leverage Research 1.0
I've spoken to people recently who were unaware of some basic facts about Leverage Research 1.0; facts that are more-or-less "common knowledge" among people who spent time socially adjacent to Leverage, and are not particularly secret or surprising in Leverage-adjacent ci... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kz9zMgWB5C27Pmdkh/common-knowledge-about-leverage-research-1-0 |
# How's it going with the Universal Cultural Takeover? Part II
*This is the second half of a response to an* [*old blog post*](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/07/25/how-the-west-was-won/) *by Scott Alexander. Part I is* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hXPbwj5E3qfdZn5Pe/how-s-it-going-with-the-universal-cultur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uoCd8WEaW9htcnDfb/how-s-it-going-with-the-universal-cultural-takeover-part-ii |
# Explanations as Hard to Vary Assertions
**Update:** After some investigation, I found out that *The Beginning of Infinity* by David Deutsch contains a few minor [misquotes](https://curi.us/2462-misquotes-by-david-deutsch) of Popper, Turing and others. Nevertheless, it is an excellent book.
* * *
Background
------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jcTsbaQ8hNc7qxwaQ/explanations-as-hard-to-vary-assertions |
# The 2021 Less Wrong Darwin Game
It's fall and that means it's time for another Less Wrong Darwin Game. This year, you'll be designing up to ten species that will compete for food including (sometimes) eating each other.
~~**Click here to participate**~~ [Entries are now closed.] You have one week from September 23 ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AFXju94oCRKhhcG7k/the-2021-less-wrong-darwin-game |
# This War of Mine
*This War of Mine* is too hard.
There are many kinds of war videogames on the market. First person shooters let you play as a marine, a robot soldier, a WWI soldier, a WWII soldier, a WWIII soldier or an alien soldier. Strategy games let you command armies, squads, nations and empires. You can kill... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jWE5keEJuSXosHz99/this-war-of-mine |
# Pathways: Google's AGI
A month ago, Jeff Dean, lead of Google AI, [announced at TED](https://qz.com/2042493/pathways-google-is-developing-a-superintelligent-multipurpose-ai/) that Google is developing a "general purpose intelligence system". To give a bit of context, last January, Google already published a paper on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bEKW5gBawZirJXREb/pathways-google-s-agi |
# Designing Low Upkeep Software
It's common for me to get excited about a personal project, put a bunch of time into it, and then lose interest. As much as possible, I want these projects to continue working; upkeep isn't fun. What does designing for minimum maintenance look like?
The biggest piece is minimizing your... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SAAZa8YzavnzHyGaB/designing-low-upkeep-software |
# Secular Therapy Project
> The purpose of the Secular Therapy Project is to help connect non-religious or secular persons who need mental health services with outstanding mental health professionals, such as psychologists, psychiatrists, counselors, and others. Using our system is simple and requires very little inf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LQcd87Ag87Q9x9oRK/secular-therapy-project |
# Cognitive Biases in Large Language Models
> Humans, one might say, are the cyanobacteria of AI: we constantly emit large amounts of structured data, which implicitly rely on logic, causality, object permanence, history—all of that good stuff. All of that is implicit and encoded into our writings and videos and ‘data... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fFF3G4W8FbXigS4gr/cognitive-biases-in-large-language-models |
# AXRP Episode 11 - Attainable Utility and Power with Alex Turner
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9edwa68CYg)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conversations with researchers about their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vcrXS5DmvBuJaKucp/axrp-episode-11-attainable-utility-and-power-with-alex |
# Book Review: Homo Deus
*Homo Deus* is part two of Yuval Noah Harari’s humble quest to explain all of history. In *Sapiens,* he created a model of how humans rose to become Earth’s apex predator and most powerful ecological force. In *Homo Deus,* he refines his model and makes predictions about culture in a transhuma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BKgxqeu9gawNnscDF/book-review-homo-deus |
# Schools probably do do something
It's a relatively commonly held view here on Less Wrong that school is mostly a waste of time.
I'm not going to comment on this directly. Instead I'm going to show that school probably has some impact on future life outcomes.
The evidence for this is the [Relative Age Effect](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AftC9yiFNn8S5axQo/schools-probably-do-do-something |
# Beyond fire alarms: freeing the groupstruck
Crossposted from [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/beyond-fire-alarms-freeing-the-groupstruck/)
_\[Content warning: death in fires, death in machine apocalypse\]_
‘No fire alarms for AGI’
------------------------
Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote that ‘[there’s no fire alarm for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRJrurv5YRZcGoYcE/beyond-fire-alarms-freeing-the-groupstruck-1 |
# Transformative AI and Compute [Summary]
*Cross-posted [here on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3eRJPFhwhGZZzfifF/transformative-ai-and-compute-summary)*.
This is the summary of the series _Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach_. You can find [the sequence here](https://www.les... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJYdnHQqpengWn3xb/transformative-ai-and-compute-summary-2 |
# My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections
Context
-------
The Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on [Hypermind](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/nav/navigator.html?view=challenges), consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kyySiWyxxhQN67Yhe/my-hypermind-arising-intelligence-forecasts-and-reflections |
# The Paradox of Expert Opinion
> *The best-informed opinions tend to be the most selection-biased ones.*
If you want to know whether string theory is true and you're not able to evaluate the technical arguments yourself, who do you go to for advice? Well, seems obvious. Ask the experts. They're likely the most infor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S6Qcf5EgX5zAozTAa/the-paradox-of-expert-opinion |
# Chris Dixon's Crypto Claims are Logically Flimsy
In this post, I make heavy use of [the power to demolish bad arguments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FfrWGCEhZJbkeFgww/the-power-to-demolish-bad-arguments) in the domain of crypto claims. The crypto world seems rich with areas where you can save a lot of wasted tim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PwPjCxqjcXjWtXmAr/chris-dixon-s-crypto-claims-are-logically-flimsy |
# 100 Years Of Existential Risk
100 years ago Alfred Korzybski published [*The Manhood Of Humanity*](https://www.gutenberg.org/files/25457/25457-pdf.pdf), the first book I'm aware of to analyze existential risks as a general category and try to diagnose their root causes. Using the primitive analytic tools available t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kFRn77GkKdFvccAFf/100-years-of-existential-risk |
# Updates from Leverage Research: History and Recent Progress
As many LessWrong readers may have seen there was recently [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kz9zMgWB5C27Pmdkh/common-knowledge-facts-about-leverage-research-1-0-1) ostensibly aimed at creating common knowledge about Leverage Research.
While Lev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3GgoJ2nCj8PiD4FSi/updates-from-leverage-research-history-and-recent-progress |
# Where's my magic sword?
When performing first aid, you must never leave a patient until you have passed them off to someone more qualified than yourself. This is a corollary to *primum non nocere* (first do no harm). Helping someone and then abandoning them can be worse than just being a bystander.
Once upon a time... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x9akR7y6CBAf9pwr2/where-s-my-magic-sword |
# Review: The End Is Always Near
The date is November 10th, 2019. Covid has plausibly started, but I don’t know it yet. I am a huge fan of Dan Carlin’s _Hardcore History_ podcast, and have been conducting my own lit review on civilizational collapse. I have been eagerly anticipating Carlin’s upcoming book, _The End is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbyFCbmHAJmaJJ9N6/review-the-end-is-always-near |
# The Trolley Problem
If you go to Harvard Law School, one of the first classes you'll take is called "Justice: What's The Right Thing To Do?" It starts with the trolley problem.
> There's a trolley hurling down the tracks with no breaks. It's on its way to hitting and killing 5 people. You can pull a lever but if yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mNthW3xpLjYAhC9Bo/the-trolley-problem-1 |
# A Confused Chemist's Review of AlphaFold 2
*(This article was originally going to be titled "A Chemist's Review of AlphaFold 2")*
Most of the protein chemists I know have a dismissive view of AlphaFold. Common criticisms generally refer to concerns of "pattern matching". I wanted to address these concerns, and have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vybojuDEqaHeg8aN/a-confused-chemist-s-review-of-alphafold-2 |
# The Intense World Theory of Autism
*The first section is well-written and reliable, because I didn't write it, it's a book excerpt. The rest of the post is more prone to errors and speculations; you can skip it if you're not into that kind of stuff—I read a few books and articles about autism, but I'm definitely not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pfoZSkZ389gnz5nZm/the-intense-world-theory-of-autism |
# AI takeoff story: a continuation of progress by other means
*Thanks to Vladimir Mikulik for suggesting that I write this, and to Rohin Shah and Daniel Kokotajlo for kindly providing feedback.*
Prologue
--------
*This is a story about a universe a lot like ours. In this universe, the* [*scaling hypothesis*](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fq8ybxtcFvKEsWmF8/ai-takeoff-story-a-continuation-of-progress-by-other-means |
# Reachability Debates (Are Often Invisible)
Alexi and Beth are not Blues or Greens, but are talking about a conflict in a foreign nation between the Blues and the Greens. The Blues are the majority in both numbers and power, and have created a number of laws which restrict the cultural and religious traditions of Gre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MdohbqRJMkt6rBTna/reachability-debates-are-often-invisible |
# [Book Review] "The Vital Question" by Nick Lane
There is a singularity at the beginning of biology. We know what happened before biology―that's just physics. We know what happened after the first cells: evolution. But we don't know how the first cells formed out of nonliving matter.
The most popular theory is calle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aFE9NkjheoxgTHhmM/book-review-the-vital-question-by-nick-lane |
# EA Hangout Prisoners' Dilemma
I ran the following experiment on Petrov’s day on the EA Hangouts Facebook page:
> *Hey everyone, it's Petrov day and I wanted to run a little scenario.*
>
> *I'm going to donate $100 each to AMF and MIRI. Unless someone comments with "nuke MIRI" or "nuke AMF". In that case, I'll give... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gjZMG8WAnh3ah7Mzz/ea-hangout-prisoners-dilemma |
# Is progress in ML-assisted theorem-proving beneficial?
I want to believe that the outputs of the recently founded [Hoskinson Center for Formal Mathematics](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2021/september/hoskinson-center-for-formal-mathematics.html) (led by [Jeremy Avigad](https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/philo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gKcoZk3sxfv6JrAJn/is-progress-in-ml-assisted-theorem-proving-beneficial |
# Blood Is Thicker Than Water 🐬
**Followup to**: [Where to Draw the Boundaries?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries)
_Without denying the obvious similarities that motivated the initial categorization `{salmon, guppies, sharks, dolphins, trout, ...}`, there is_ more struct... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water |
# Inner Belt
A friend recently wrote in a local group that "the disastrous Inner Belt 'redevelopment' removed thousands of homes", and if you look at the Inner Belt area today it does look like it could have been a victim of urban renewal:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/inne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CocaChWr3ZnFMoiCs/inner-belt |
# Beware Superficial Plausibility
Andrew Wakefield was funded by some people suing vaccine manufacturers to publish some extremely damaging research. With a sample size of twelve people, he “found” that the Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine [caused autism](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067369711... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fywDwLQQqEL445DL9/beware-superficial-plausibility |
# Selection Theorems: A Program For Understanding Agents
What’s the type signature of an agent?
For instance, what kind-of-thing is a “goal”? What data structures can represent “goals”? Utility functions are a common choice among theorists, but they [don’t seem quite right](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQpNHSiWaXT... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents |
# Sunscreen: much more than you wanted to know
I’ve seen so many different takes on sunscreen that I had to do something about it. Here is my best effort to summarize the current research.
What does sunscreen do?
-----------------------
Without getting into technical details, sunscreen reflects or scatters UV radiat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vtiSSn4dW2euC9PaF/sunscreen-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Collection of arguments to expect (outer and inner) alignment failure?
Various arguments have been made for why advanced AI systems will plausibly not have the goals their operators intended them to have (due to either [outer](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/outer-alignment) or [inner](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m5or8yzrw9GLavz9b/collection-of-arguments-to-expect-outer-and-inner-alignment |
# You can talk to EA Funds before applying
_Cross-posted to the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/htrccjrwLLfC7NAn9/you-can-talk-to-ea-funds-before-applying)._
One thing I have realized as a fund manager for the [EA Long-Term Future Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future) is tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5AAFoigbbMqgrTpDh/you-can-talk-to-ea-funds-before-applying |
# D&D.Sci 4th Edition: League of Defenders of the Storm
STORY (skippable)
=================
When you graduated top of your class from Data Science School, you didn't care where you ended up working, you just wanted to find the highest-paid job possible. (Your student loans may have had an impact on this decision).
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cgmuJzC75bJXhLkwi/d-and-d-sci-4th-edition-league-of-defenders-of-the-storm |
# A review of Steven Pinker's new book on rationality
Steven Pinker's [new book on rationality](https://www.amazon.com/Rationality-What-Seems-Scarce-Matters/dp/0525561994) came out today. I figured someone on LessWrong would write a review for it, so I might as well be the one to do it.
Unlike Pinker's prior books, s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQKgKjecvR4W7oJw5/a-review-of-steven-pinker-s-new-book-on-rationality |
# [Book Review] "Houdini on Magic" by Harry Houdini
*Houdini on Magic* is a collection of the writings of Harry Houdini. It mostly covers three things.
1. Houdini's greatest tricks. (Mostly escapes.)
2. Houdini's work discrediting spiritualists. Spiritualists are people who pretend to talk to the dead. These aren't w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fgjYNPTNE3oBmsy9H/book-review-houdini-on-magic-by-harry-houdini |
# Bayeswatch 10: Spyware
Alice worked for Facebook.
"Are you familiar with advertising fraud?" she said.
"Remind me," said her boss Bob.
"People write plugins that simulate clicks. This has gotten worse and worse over time," said Alice.
"I am aware. Are you implying there is something we can do about it?" said Bob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Awhhza8yMejNpsbYo/bayeswatch-10-spyware |
# Brain-inspired AGI and the "lifetime anchor"
Last year Ajeya Cotra published a [draft report on AI timelines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines). (See also: [summary and commentary by Holden Karnofsky](https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biologica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W6wBmQheDiFmfJqZy/brain-inspired-agi-and-the-lifetime-anchor |
# Unsolved ML Safety Problems
_Cross-posted from the [BAIR Blog](https://bair.berkeley.edu/blog/2021/09/29/ml-safety/) and from my blog, [Bounded Regret](https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/unsolved-ml-safety-problems/)._
Along with researchers from Google Brain and OpenAI, we are releasing a paper on [Unsolved Problems ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AwMb7C72etphiRvah/unsolved-ml-safety-problems |
# A brief review of the reasons multi-objective RL could be important in AI Safety Research
*By Ben Smith,* [*Roland Pihlakas*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/roland-pihlakas)*, and* [*Robert Klassert*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/klaro)
*Thanks to Linda Linsefors, Alex Turner, Richard Ngo, Peter Vamplew, JJ Hep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5dLfi6m6FCexReK9/a-brief-review-of-the-reasons-multi-objective-rl-could-be |
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