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# Review: Václav Havel’s “The Power of the Powerless”
*In which I review* [*Václav Havel’s essay on “The Power of the Powerless”*](https://web.archive.org/web/20131206120506/http://www.vaclavhavel.cz/showtrans.php?cat=eseje&val=2_aj_eseje.html&typ=HTML) *before Scott Alexander totally steals my thunder.*
Václav Havel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KjigA9tf8krrztC85/review-vaclav-havel-s-the-power-of-the-powerless |
# The Big Picture Of Alignment (Talk Part 1)
I recently gave a two-part talk on the big picture of alignment, as I see it. The talk is not-at-all polished, but contains a lot of stuff for which I don't currently know of any good writeup. Major pieces in part one:
* Some semitechnical intuition-building for high-dim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdSDFQs4aC5GrdHNZ/the-big-picture-of-alignment-talk-part-1 |
# Seeking models of LW’s aversion to religion
Hi there. I’m a longtime LW-er posting under a pseudonym, in the hopes of being able to make my ignorance visible without unnecessary drama. Please don’t out me; it seems to me that the ability to expose one’s ignorance pseudonymously is a pro-epistemic norm that we’ll be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZcXZCd2ZY7KBLb4vf/seeking-models-of-lw-s-aversion-to-religion |
# Alignment research exercises
It's currently hard to know where to start when trying to get better at thinking about alignment. So below I've listed a few dozen exercises which I expect to be helpful. They assume a level of background alignment knowledge roughly equivalent to what's covered in the [technical alignmen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kj37Hzb2MsALwLqWt/alignment-research-exercises |
# Direct Observation
My dad’s a retired science teacher, so my little brother and I began playing the “I’m not touching you!” game unusually early.
In case you’re not familiar with “I’m not touching you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y7wgtZ2ehfWuqzXfm/direct-observation |
# Ngo and Yudkowsky on scientific reasoning and pivotal acts
This is a transcript of a conversation between Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky, facilitated by Nate Soares (and with some comments from Carl Shulman). This transcript continues the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://intelligence.org/late-2021-miri-conv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cCrpbZ4qTCEYXbzje/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-scientific-reasoning-and-pivotal-acts |
# Convoy Crackdown
The convoy has been dispersed. Yet Tyler Cowen was clearly correct that this will be a very important event. The story has barely begun.
\[Writer’s Note: This post violates some of the usual lines that I set for myself regarding politics, because I do not know how to communicate the situation witho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F5EmBWyryhgNtqsKb/convoy-crackdown |
# Do any AI alignment orgs hire remotely?
tl;dr: qualified software engineer considering what their next job might be; now thinking about direct work as a serious option.
Previous plan was something like:
SELECT * FROM big_tech_co
WHERE location = 'remote'
ORDER BY team_fit, salary
For a variety of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Br6MRY9mQG2b8hie2/do-any-ai-alignment-orgs-hire-remotely |
# The Art and Science of Intuition Pumping
*Epistemic status: *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
What is “intuition pumping”? I had seen the term used on LW, probably used it myself, without wondering that much what “intuition pumps” ev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HupjztHSXuKduqaoA/the-art-and-science-of-intuition-pumping |
# Reward Good Bets That Had Bad Outcomes
Introduction
------------
I am a very anxious person. One of the most damaging ways this manifests is that I am pretty risk-averse and afraid of failure. In situations of uncertainty, I often want to freeze up, and know I’ll feel safer doing nothing.
This is a really bad prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5qayrQp9dXWm4fhje/reward-good-bets-that-had-bad-outcomes |
# ELK Proposal: Thinking Via A Human Imitator
I want to use the AI’s intelligence to figure out how to translate into the human ontology. The hope is to route a smart entity's performance through a dumb entity's understanding and thereby get the smart entity to solve interpretability-by-the-dumb-entity. While my propo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z3xTDPDsndJBmHLFH/elk-proposal-thinking-via-a-human-imitator |
# Butterfly Ideas
Or “How I got my hyperanalytical friends to chill out and vibe on ideas for 5 minutes before testing them to destruction”
Sometimes talking with my friends is like intellectual combat, which is great. I am glad I have such strong cognitive warriors on my side. But not all ideas are ready for intelle... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R6M4vmShiowDn56of/butterfly-ideas |
# Harms and possibilities of schooling
To explore better possibilities for nurturing new minds, and to care about the problem in the first place, it helps to remember what's wrong with what we do to new minds. John Taylor Gatto speaks about this from experience and insight:
[Seven Lessons Taught in School, 1991](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aaHDA4X6cTzFrvuSX/harms-and-possibilities-of-schooling |
# Learning By Writing
I have very detailed opinions on lots of topics. I sometimes get asked how I do this, which might just be people making fun of me, but I choose to interpret it as a real question, and I’m going to sketch an answer here.
You can think of this as a sort of sequel to [Minimal-Trust Investigations](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ii4xtogen7AyYmN6B/learning-by-writing |
# What's the status of TDCS for improving intelligence?
I recently heard about transcranial direct current stimulation as a technology for improving memory and attention, and I thought it sounded like a great area to attempt some munchkin activity.
However, it seems like the science isn't very clear.
Does anyone hav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CwWmfDm9SBQRptNyB/what-s-the-status-of-tdcs-for-improving-intelligence |
# D&D.SCP: Anomalous Acquisitions Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to [](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/boLvvZiRazNqipup7/d-and-d-sci-dungeoncrawling-the-crown-of-command) [last week's D&D.Sci scenario](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ikirGAsPufYAxhcu/d-and-d-scp-anomalous-acquisitions): if you intend to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eL9AYttaa9PEwmS9X/d-and-d-scp-anomalous-acquisitions-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# How satisfied should you expect to be with your partner?
I got married today, to the [particular fellow](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/alex-ray) mentioned in [my Turning 30 post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NCojuKN5dBMtCJHA3/turning-30). In a sort of 'inverse cat tax'[^q4b9vf48jnk] for a sappy announcement, he... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xggxWfyzZmnz7hydm/how-satisfied-should-you-expect-to-be-with-your-partner |
# [Beta Feature] Google-Docs-like editing for LessWrong posts
*TL;DR: LessWrong now has similar features to Google Docs. Warning! Still rough around the edges. To enable the collaborative editor, you must check "*Opt into experimental features" *in your* [*account settings*](https://www.lesswrong.com/account) *and the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6d4vtGwt5FE84wk7/beta-feature-google-docs-like-editing-for-lesswrong-posts |
# Interview with Nectome CEO Robert McIntyre - Brain Preservation, Personal Identity, AGI, and More
*This is cross-posted from* [*my blog*](https://www.johncgreer.com/robert-mcintyre-interview/) *and is written more for a general audience rather than LessWrong people who will be more familiar with some of the relevant... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s2N75ksqK3uxz9LLy/interview-with-nectome-ceo-robert-mcintyre-brain |
# Do, Then Think
If there’s one lesson that I learned from almost every single smart person I know, it’s:
> [The](https://twitter.com/ArtirKel/status/1494419209673076753?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February) unreasonable effectiveness of doing, then thinking; vs thinking too much before doing
This is not something I’ve bee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aPFuxpGEevyGgMwJ2/do-then-think |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 5. The “long-term predictor”, and TD learning
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
5.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F759WQ8iKjqBncDki/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-5-the-long-term-predictor-and |
# Some Technical Problems With Measuring Happiness (and some solutions)
\[Epistemic status: Probably true, but very incomplete. I’m just some guy who spent a few days reading studies and literature reviews on this subject. This is just a short look at some of the technical (i.e. non-fundamental; could be solved with b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yRPcLejaTXTwFrhYv/some-technical-problems-with-measuring-happiness-and-some |
# More GPT-3 and symbol grounding
*Based on work done with Rebecca Gorman and Oliver Daniel-Koch.*
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ns95FHkkzpjXh4x5Q/what-does-gpt-3-understand-symbol-grounding-and-chinese), I talked about GPT-3 and symbol grounding. This post presents a simpler example where GPT... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QppXf4yfcG8JAKhnw/more-gpt-3-and-symbol-grounding |
# Patient Observation
When a person first begins to study naturalism with me, I say to them almost nothing that I’ve written in this sequence.
That might very well be a mistake; I might get better resu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sAiHxHkQrsYsRpKFP/patient-observation |
# Was the K-T event a Great Filter?
I've been wondering about this question [for a while](https://lesswrong.com/posts/pg6Z5tiuXotGTWaG8/anthropic-effects-in-estimating-evolution-difficulty#comment-jcHPPiojybBLfByK2), but some new [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04446-1) released today reminded me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6uEkniGLC9BfFggLs/was-the-k-t-event-a-great-filter |
# Christiano and Yudkowsky on AI predictions and human intelligence
This is a transcript of a conversation between Paul Christiano and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with comments by Rohin Shah, Beth Barnes, Richard Ngo, and Holden Karnofsky, continuing the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://intelligence.org/late-2021-miri-co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NbGmfxbaABPsspib7/christiano-and-yudkowsky-on-ai-predictions-and-human |
# A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra's [draft report on AI timelines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines) is the most useful, comprehensive report about AI timelines I've seen so far. I think the report is a big step towards modeling the fund... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnjDGitKxYaesbsem/a-comment-on-ajeya-cotra-s-draft-report-on-ai-timelines |
# Transformer inductive biases & RASP
This is a paper by Weiss et al. about the "**Restricted Access Sequence Processing Language**", which is a computational framework for what transformers can do.
| DL architecture | Computational framework |
| --- | --- |
| Feedforward networks | Circuits |
| RNNs | Finite state m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kwpvEpDXsivbmdYhr/transformer-inductive-biases-and-rasp |
# Russia has Invaded Ukraine
I wrote this quickly. It may contain errors. Please correct them in the comments *after reading this post's special commenting guidelines*.
---
You should ignore the news unless it's of historic import. Russia's invasion of Ukraine constitutes an event of historic import.
Interstate con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCfaLXcWnk8pujnX4/russia-has-invaded-ukraine |
# Covid 2/24/22: The Next War
Russia has invaded Ukraine with the stated goal of 'demilitarization and denazification.'
On its face, this has nothing to do with Covid. The invasion may reflect a perception, either on the part of Putin or otherwise, from our Covid-19 response or otherwise, that the West has shown itse... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ED9AnyJscdjuuCEMR/covid-2-24-22-the-next-war |
# What's the easiest way to currently generate images with machine learning?
As far as I understand, the images for the latest LessWrong books were generated by a neural net. I would like to generate images for the sequences I have on LessWrong in a similar way. What's the easiest way for me to do so? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HnD8pqLKGn2bCbXJr/what-s-the-easiest-way-to-currently-generate-images-with |
# Less Lightning Links at Length #1
These are the things that I couldn’t fit into a Covid post even in the Not Covid section, but which aren’t big enough to deserve their own spin-off posts, and which are not time-sensitive.
With Covid winding down, I had the opportunity to work though some of that backlog this week.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jod2WHr7BaYdcM5gy/less-lightning-links-at-length-1 |
# What would a thriving progress movement look like?
In recent essays I’ve outlined [the intellectual-historical need for a progress movement](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress), and the [core ideas](https://rootsofprogress.org/progress-humanism-agency) that I think the budding 21st-century prog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HHwxZphdwLq9HFBpq/what-would-a-thriving-progress-movement-look-like |
# Naturalism
According to me, this sequence has been pretty darn abstract.
That was kind of on purpose. It’s the opposite of what I like to do, of what I think I’m good at. I much prefer to engage with an actual specific *thing*, and to share the details of my experience as I go. This big picture stuff is really not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x9DEmdQa5brftFfpX/naturalism |
# Cryptoepistemology
This is a brief elaboration of an analogy I've found insightful for both some purely epistemological questions and some crypto-platform design ideas:
*Justification for a belief takes the form of a cryptographic proof.*
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sDk3RziupmzShN2RN/cryptoepistemology |
# Artificial Wordcels
Follow-up to my Metaculus Journal post on [Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9885/action-ontologies-computer-ontologies/)
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2022/02/23/artificial-wordcels/)
* * *
Minor Delays
------------
Some ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H4nbTcTEqrsDYP89v/artificial-wordcels |
# The Big Picture Of Alignment (Talk Part 2)
I recently gave a two-part talk on the big picture of alignment, as I see it. The talk is not-at-all polished, but contains a lot of stuff for which I don't currently know of any good writeup. Linkpost for the first part is [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdSDFQs4aC5... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aEtc5GgqJGFtTH2kQ/the-big-picture-of-alignment-talk-part-2-1 |
# My attitude towards death
The philosophy and psychology of death seem weirdly under-discussed - particularly by the wider silicon valley community, given how strongly anti-death many people in it are. This post is an attempt to think through some relevant considerations, primarily focused on my own intuitions and em... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9N2s2B8gwjy6NcHRJ/my-attitude-towards-death |
# IMO challenge bet with Eliezer
Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025. In honor of OpenAI's post [Solving (Some) Formal Math Problems](https://openai.com/blog/formal-math/), it seems good to publicly state and clarify our predictions, have a final chance to adjust them... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer |
# How do new models from OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic perform on TruthfulQA?
**Authors:** [**Owain Evans**](https://owainevans.github.io/)**, **[**Stephanie Lin**](https://www.linkedin.com/in/sylin07/) **(Oxford),**[**Jacob Hilton**](https://www.jacobh.co.uk/) **(OpenAI)**
**NB: Updated (May 14) with additiona... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yYkrbS5iAwdEQyynW/how-do-new-models-from-openai-deepmind-and-anthropic-perform |
# Ambiguity causes conflict
Consider the following model of conflict:
Two parties, say A and B, have a dispute about some issue. The state of the world can be represented as a real number in the interval \\( s \in [0, 1] \\). A and B have utility functions \\( u_A(1-s) \\) and \\( u_B(s) \\) respectively, where \\( u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9aiaJoiGGiyMjoqBq/ambiguity-causes-conflict |
# Is Anyone Else Seeking to Help Community Members in Ukraine Who Make Refugee Claims?
Some rationalists and effective altruists in British Columbia have begun mulling over the option of whether they would be able to sponsor a fellow community member living in Ukraine to stay as a refugee in Canada. There is [a proces... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4LuRbAoivWGpqSArn/is-anyone-else-seeking-to-help-community-members-in-ukraine |
# You have a place to stay in Sweden, should you need it.
If anyone here is in trouble of any kind, and finds themselves in Sweden with no place to stay, or in need of other help, I want to help you. Send me an email at [johan.domeij@gmail.com](mailto:johan.domeij@gmail.com) for further contact.
I am posting this now... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nCrbEozSfQ82YQkd6/you-have-a-place-to-stay-in-sweden-should-you-need-it |
# Estimating Brain-Equivalent Compute from Image Recognition Algorithms
\[Epistemic Status: Playing around with the idea of a benchmark with some rough numbers.\]
When I read [Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_sou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jkAksfEfEnvovnftk/estimating-brain-equivalent-compute-from-image-recognition |
# Relativized Definitions as a Method to Sidestep the Löbian Obstacle
The goal of this post is to outline a loophole of sorts in Gödel's Second Incompleteness (GSI) theorem (and of Löb's theorem by corollary) and give a somewhat sketchy description for how it might be exploited.
I'll begin by describing the loophole.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L9zm5oGvDK8xwsGNf/relativized-definitions-as-a-method-to-sidestep-the-loebian |
# Preparing for Possible Russian Countersanctions in Europe
Europe is about to introduce stronger economic sanctions against Russia. Given Putin's past behavior I think it is likely that there will be Russian countersanctions.
The most relevant could be cutting off of gas for Europe. In the long run this
would be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wv42zCqFie8SEJjuu/preparing-for-possible-russian-countersanctions-in-europe |
# How I Formed My Own Views About AI Safety
_**Disclaimer**: I work as a researcher at Anthropic, but this post entirely represents my own views, rather than the views of my own employer_
Introduction
------------
I’ve spent the past two years getting into the field of AI Safety. One important message I heard as I w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JZrN4ckaCfd6J37cG/how-i-formed-my-own-views-about-ai-safety |
# [David Chapman] Resisting or embracing meta-rationality
Excerpting the intro. Follow the link for the rest.
> [Meta-rationalism](https://metarationality.com/rationalism-definitions#meta) may provoke skepticism or hostility at first. It contradicts fundamental [rationalist](https://metarationality.com/rationalism-de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kiAdksiTnpsAS6tJN/david-chapman-resisting-or-embracing-meta-rationality |
# Conspiracy-proof archeology
*This is a cross-post from* [*Telescopic Turnip*](https://malmesbury.substack.com/p/conspiracy-proof-archaeology)*.*
Totally legit fossil of a [3m giant](https://en.wikiped... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F5J7nLpiWojLwt977/conspiracy-proof-archeology |
# ELK Thought Dump
I recently spent a couple of weeks working on [ELK](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals). What follows is a somewhat disorganized thought-dump, with the post-hoc theme of relating ELK to some common ideas in philosophy.
I'll assume familiarity with the [ELK do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eqzbXmqGqXiyjX3TP/elk-thought-dump-1 |
# Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures
This is the final discussion log in the [Late 2021 MIRI Conversations](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq) sequence, featuring Rohin Shah and Eliezer Yudkowsky, with additional comments from Rob Bensinger, Nate Soares, Richard Ngo, and Jaan Tallinn.
The discussion... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tcCxPLBrEXdxN5HCQ/shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures |
# Ukraine Post #1: Prediction Markets
I am working on seeing how comprehensively I can cover and discuss the war, but that takes time and the speed premium is super high. I decided to start here, and write quickly. Apologies in advance for any mistakes, oversights, dumbness, and so on.
While I strive to provide suffi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/quRXsXGEv6BaZnyJL/ukraine-post-1-prediction-markets |
# Being an individual alignment grantmaker
I am an earlyish crypto investor who has accumulated enough to be a mid-sized grantmaker, and I intend to donate most of my money over the next 5-10 years to try and increase the chances that humanity has a wonderful future. My best guess is that this is mostly decided by whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GY8fvAQFZhxYDdKvQ/being-an-individual-alignment-grantmaker |
# Mundane, sharp, crazy
This is a post about evaluating possible experts in fields you're not in, where you are somewhat qualified to evaluate their claims.
I try to think along these lines when talking to other engineers about their jobs, but also when figuring out which of two people has got their story straight in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjWwaGkCDqkS67J4F/mundane-sharp-crazy |
# Late 2021 MIRI Conversations: AMA / Discussion
With the release of [Rohin Shah and Eliezer Yudkowsky's conversation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tcCxPLBrEXdxN5HCQ/shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-plans), the **Late 2021 MIRI Conversations** sequence is now complete.
This post is intended as a generalized comment... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34Gkqus9vusXRevR8/late-2021-miri-conversations-ama-discussion |
# Seek Mistakes in the Space Between Math and Reality
*Epistemic status: Cranky grumbling about the kids these days and all of their math and how they are using it wrong*
*Note: I'll be using a few examples as foils below. This isn't intended as criticism of those foils, it's because they provide good examples of wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YCeCELo6bMZizBPvB/seek-mistakes-in-the-space-between-math-and-reality |
# RFC WWIII
> You should ignore the news unless it's of historic import. Russia's invasion of Ukraine constitutes an event of historic import.
>
> — [Russia has Invaded Ukraine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCfaLXcWnk8pujnX4/russia-has-invaded-ukraine)
One could argue for an even stronger position: you should ign... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ffkx3RG22HyrEBKsX/rfc-wwiii |
# What are some low-cognitive -workload tasks that can help improve the world?
I have a chronic health condition which results in significant brain fog, usually lasting a few hours most days. When I don’t have brain fog I can work on high-level technical work with relative ease, but when I’m experiencing symptoms, eve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fd3JTMHrJq6yhPdE9/what-are-some-low-cognitive-workload-tasks-that-can-help |
# Have You Tried Hiring People?
__The purpose of this post is to call attention to a comment thread that I think needs it.__
***
[__seed__](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BBdAdFgNvPppGB6RZ/selfish-people-want-to-save-the-world?commentId=uGiGvdALNpZqcYLyb):
Wait, I thought EA already had 46$ billion they didn't know... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ido3qfidfDJbigTEQ/have-you-tried-hiring-people |
# Are our community grouphouses typically rented, or owned?
Asking partially because the Auckland community really needs to start a grouphouse and could do with advice, and also I expect the answers to be interesting for a bunch of other reasons:
* Intuitively, one might expect a mostly longtermist community to be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YpbcTorKKKQyxPJer/are-our-community-grouphouses-typically-rented-or-owned |
# Musings on the Speed Prior
_Thanks to Paul Christiano, Mark Xu, Abram Demski, Kate Woolverton, and Beth Barnes for some discussions which informed this post._
In the [ELK report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge), Paul, Mark, and Ajeya express... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GC69Hmc6ZQDM9xC3w/musings-on-the-speed-prior |
# Ukraine Situation Report 2022/03/01
I love Russia, I love Russian and I love Russians. My favorite physics professor was a nuclear scientist from the Soviet Union. I studied Russian in college where a classmate gave me my first copy of *Foreign Affairs Journal*. Catherine the Great is #4 on my [list of heroes](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QMB5c5aypEWLxSAjQ/ukraine-situation-report-2022-03-01 |
# Summit-Seeking as Distinct From Mountaineering
Epistemic Status: Proposing new terminology to clarify discourse surrounding potential new equilibria.
TL;DR: We should use the term **summit-seeking** to refer to the evaluation of equilibria different from the current one, and the term **mountaineering** to refer to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4cztpTNAN8MAFcGRS/summit-seeking-as-distinct-from-mountaineering |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 6. Big picture of motivation, decision-making, and RL
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
6.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the *[*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qNZSBqLEh4qLRqgWW/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-6-big-picture-of-motivation |
# The Limits Of Medicine - Part 2 - Homogeneity Assumptions
*This is part of a series of articles I'm writing to try and present a clear framework around where medicine is lacking and what easy wins might be found -- This one is "basic but necessary" in that I try to explain a concept that's rather familiar to most pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xDGLpvDsDKbnb9LY7/the-limits-of-medicine-part-2-homogeneity-assumptions |
# The Wicked Problem Experience
I’ve spent a lot of my career working on [wicked problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem): problems that are vaguely defined, where there’s no clear goal for exactly what I’m trying to do or how I’ll know when or whether I’ve done it.
In particular, [minimal-trust invest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kgmkdf3C7EkDX7dnT/the-wicked-problem-experience |
# March 2022 Welcome & Open Thread
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dxM6JJtZB5JHLP6RL/march-2022-welcome-and-open-thread |
# The Agent
Before the war I didn't really think about anything. I just did things and things just happened to me. Then yesterday my mother asked me if we should leave. "Before it's too late". That was the first time I ever really thought about something. This is what thinking was like for me:
\- I pictured all the a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mLFQPtKWSCC5qLy5J/the-agent |
# Would (myopic) general public good producers significantly accelerate the development of AGI?
This question is material to us, as [we're building an impact certificate market](https://www.impactcerts.com/) (a major component in [retroactive public goods funding](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lewis-carroll-in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PGfJPnDzy9sDE6zkj/would-myopic-general-public-good-producers-significantly |
# The Geometric Series of 1/(d+1) is a Fraction in Base-d
Suppose $x$ is a positive number less than 1. What is the sum of the positive powers of $x$?
For example, suppose $x=\frac12$.
$$\begin{eqnarray}
\sum_{i=1}^\infty x^i&=&\sum_{i=1}^\infty \frac1{2^i}\\
&=&\frac1{2^1}+\frac1{2^2}+\frac1{2^3}+\ldots\\
&=&\frac1... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KZEbyvpZcDPp7JqP8/the-geometric-series-of-1-d-1-is-a-fraction-in-base-d |
# Covid 3/3/2022: Move Along
The number of Ukrainian Covid-19 cases is now ‘nobody gives a f***.’ Quite right. True existential threats put things in perspective. If you are more worried about catching Covid-19 than you are about the war and its possible escalation, you have a poor threat model.
That does not mean th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7M9NXqPz87xLgmKKt/covid-3-3-2022-move-along |
# A Warm Up Problem for Yudkowsky's New Fiction
Hello, this is my first post on lesswrong, a community I deeply value. Feel free to tell me to RTFM, especially if you can point me there.
Yesterday I attended the weekly rationalist meetup at "The Territory" in Seattle for the first time. I attended for many reasons, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hAijPYdsbLibBBb9w/a-warm-up-problem-for-yudkowsky-s-new-fiction |
# PSA: if you are in Russia, probably move out ASAP
The Metaculus crowd thinks that it's very likely that Russia will restrict emigration:
I myself am more optimistic about this question resolving negatively. But even if Russia would not close borders for a notable fraction of its citizens, it seems fairly likely tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GrwNyKhGt77HGcRQE/psa-if-you-are-in-russia-probably-move-out-asap |
# AI Performance on Human Tasks
*This was an independent project with guidance and support from* [*Vael Gates*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/vael-gates) *and* [*Richard Korzekwa*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/grothor)*--thank you both for your mentorship!*
Introduction
------------
This project was inspired by... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SHBnvdYc6owKdktFf/ai-performance-on-human-tasks |
# Recognizing and Dealing with Negative Automatic Thoughts
Inspired by this [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HpHnMEiHYzSZiYk6g/failing-with-abandon), which is point 3 on the list below, but I can't comment there, so a separate post it is. Copied from [here](https://justpaste.it/1gnh3). Basically, this is cogniti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bKCCwnkLk77tHLcc6/recognizing-and-dealing-with-negative-automatic-thoughts |
# When should you relocate to mitigate the risk of dying in a nuclear war?
_Epistemic Status: "Thinking out loud" is probably a good way to describe it. I've been researching and thinking about this stuff on and off for the past few days, and this is the best I've got. I haven't vetted it too closely and probably have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v8AJNrArfYs76D4c4/when-should-you-relocate-to-mitigate-the-risk-of-dying-in-a |
# Higher Risk of Nuclear War
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, nuclear war is still very unlikely, but I'd guess it's the most likely it's been in my lifetime. It's worth thinking through how this impacts any [disaster plans](https://www.jefftk.com/p/disasters) you might have:
* What would you do [if you got an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EMypQgRx7RqmQRbRr/higher-risk-of-nuclear-war |
# Ukraine Situation Report 2022/03/04
TL;DR: Shortages in Russia are so bad the Russian people are reusing Soviet jokes.
---
These posts are read by Ukrainians, Russians and veterans. Here is a gem by former American paratrooper ryan_b.
> I feel like the biggest item here is the peacekeeping mission charade.
>
> >... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6jjcqQTaSQE5sEd2/ukraine-situation-report-2022-03-04 |
# [Letter] Russians are Welcome in America
Edit [to clarify]: American *immigration policy* is unwelcoming to immigrants. Often, the only ways to enter the US legally are to marry someone in the US or to get the sponsorship of a powerful tech company. It takes several months even under the best of circumstances. I jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QCrkSbsdAAyymAxjG/letter-russians-are-welcome-in-america |
# Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
**Highlights**
==============
* The FTX foundation will potentially give out millions in forecasting
* Insight Predictions and Futuur have real-money prediction markets on the invasion of Ukraine
* At least $444k paid out in over the counter bets on the invasion of Ukrain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PcAkr48fJ3SEGEzH9/forecasting-newsletter-february-2022 |
# What we know about machine learning's replication crisis
The replication crisis is a a phenomenon that plagues modern day scientific research. And contrary to popular belief, it [has being going on for a long time](https://fantasticanachronism.com/2020/09/11/whats-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it/#Nothing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4FnzvwTnReC3bH5y/what-we-know-about-machine-learning-s-replication-crisis |
# Don't Let Personal Domains Expire
It's common to see advice along these lines:
> Don't build your stuff in someone else's sandbox. Get your own domain and point it to whatever service you choose to use. Your email address should be @yourdomain, where you have full control and no one can lock you out. Don't fall int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4P3ub4hkHkMtFmCbD/don-t-let-personal-domains-expire |
# 2022 ACX predictions: market prices
As part of the [2022 ACX prediction contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest), which I am co-running with [Eric Neyman](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/), I wanted to get market prices for all of the predictions.[^rjxvqhtpq1] These market prices... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rT8AkEcBnfX8ZdSLs/2022-acx-predictions-market-prices |
# Accelerated [Honors] Calculus
The University of Washington offers the following introductory math classes:
- **MATH 111 Algebra with Applications** is for people who dislike math.
- **MATH 124 Calculus with Analytic Geometry I** is for people who like math.
- **MATH 134 Accelerated [Honors] Calculus** is for people ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4nAYWrXhCA54WQixG/accelerated-honors-calculus |
# Why is the war in Ukraine particularly dangerous for the world?
I have heard that since WW2 there have been ~140 armed conflicts in the world. Only few of them have been full-fledged wars, let alone big ones. However, as I don't know almost anything about wars and the politics around them, I cannot really formulate ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZnhMGBG3cBHnZs9H/why-is-the-war-in-ukraine-particularly-dangerous-for-the |
# Via productiva - my writing and productivity framework
*TL;DR: Introspection on how I do things and which rules and heuristics help me to be productive. Framed as Taleb's via negativa advice. Weaves in a bit of Greek mythology.*
Do you wonder how I manage to write [one essay every week](https://universalprior.s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eyNeA3QYcgc5xCFuW/via-productiva-my-writing-and-productivity-framework |
# Patricia Hall & The Warlock Curse
Patricia Hall had studied all her life to become an archmage diviner of the Ivory Tower. When she was expelled, her heart broke and her world shattered. Even worse, she learned short after that the world might be literally about to end.
Join the eponymous character on a life-transf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bBw83qr8nTJb5jcJ/patricia-hall-and-the-warlock-curse |
# Preserving and continuing alignment research through a severe global catastrophe
*\[Epistemic status: Shallow dive into research questions, backed by some years of on-and-off thinking about this kind of plan.\]*
Introduction
------------
There is some chance that civilization will cease to function before we hit a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xrxh3usuoYMckkKom/preserving-and-continuing-alignment-research-through-a |
# Balancing Audio in Software
A few months ago I [ported](https://www.jefftk.com/p/whistle-synth-pi) my whistle controlled synthesizer to the Raspberry Pi. I configured it with mono output, and ran it through a [DI box](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DI_unit) to get a balanced XLR output I could send to a sound board. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BuCt7bmAqJ7zL4LLs/balancing-audio-in-software |
# Ukraine update 06/03/2022
**Power plant shelling**
On March 4th Putin's troops shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar city. Zaporizhzhia NPP in the largest nuclear plant in Europe, providing 25% of Ukraine's electricity. A training building close to one of the plant’s reactor units caught fire from t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZrdbR6JHMFD99k3fC/ukraine-update-06-03-2022 |
# Why work at AI Impacts?
AI Impacts is beginning a serious hiring round (see [here](https://aiimpacts.org/jobs/) for job postings), so I’d like to explain a bit why it has been my own best guess at the highest impact place for me to work for me. (As in, this is a personal blog post by Katja on the AI Impacts blog, no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJdTMRag5SxbS8f9u/why-work-at-ai-impacts |
# Sabotage challenge
You are an ordinary citizen in a hypothetical, imaginary Evil Empire that wages an aggressive war against its neighbor. Telling the truth about the war can get you imprisoned, protesting can get you fined or imprisoned. What can you do to impede your country's war effort?
Unlike the usuall bubble... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aR9EmtXhk8DfFm5H3/sabotage-challenge |
# Grabby Aliens could be Good, could be Bad
Robin Hanson's [Grabby Aliens](https://grabbyaliens.com/) is a succinct model of how and when technological life will spread. It argues that we've simply arrived too early in the universe's lifespan for other civilizations to have grown to the point of being visible to us ye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GBwCg2ZcgvWyEpuiA/grabby-aliens-could-be-good-could-be-bad |
# You can tell a drawing from a painting
*Epistemic status: I've had this concept for a while, and applied it in practice many times. It's fairly easy to convey in an argument, and can clear up some confusion. But there are many loose ends, and I'm not sure it's well formulated. Also, I'm stuck, so I'll just throw it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mERNQwDNTtqsXbSng/you-can-tell-a-drawing-from-a-painting |
# Scientific Wrestling: Beyond Passive Hypothesis-Testing
*Epistemic status: *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
In 1907, Ross Harrison grew a frog nerve in vitro, inventing modern [tissue culture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tissue_cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X7N96LvWQfrS4tjFz/scientific-wrestling-beyond-passive-hypothesis-testing |
# Projecting compute trends in Machine Learning
Summary
-------
Using [our dataset](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit?usp=sharing) of milestone Machine Learning models, and [our recent analysis of compute trends in ML](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.05924.pdf), we pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3dBtgKCkJh5yCHbag/projecting-compute-trends-in-machine-learning-2 |
# How to Best Use Twitter
\[Note: While I do intend to write more about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this post is intended to address this only indirectly rather than directly, by helping illustrate how to find other sources of information, and you are once again implored to rely on other news sources. I need to get ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzArJNSbbSikJeLD4/how-to-best-use-twitter |
# An Intuitive Introduction to Functional Decision Theory
In the last two posts, we looked at both [Causal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bNayfvnKKsbE7w6Sb/an-introduction-to-causal-decision-theory) (CDT) and [Evidential Decision Theory](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pQfAmKtQTf8ndB9cw/an-introduction-to-evidential... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d5swTmH2zw4vzYBNS/an-intuitive-introduction-to-functional-decision-theory |
# The First-Person Perspective Is Not A Random Sample
_This is another attempt to promote my solution to anthropic paradoxes (perspective-based reasoning, PBR)._
Quick Recap
-----------
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tkhQC9YBgQAcgBLRP/the-first-person-and-the-physical-person), I suggested t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/heSbtt29bv5KRoyZa/the-first-person-perspective-is-not-a-random-sample |
# Effective Ideas is announcing a $100,000 blog prize
From [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xapRLBTpMYokrpd9q/we-re-announcing-a-usd100-000-blog-prize):
We want to encourage a broader, public conversation around effective altruism and longtermism. To that end, we’re offering up to 5 awards of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/REprzCRRarnCexcwr/effective-ideas-is-announcing-a-usd100-000-blog-prize |
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