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#
[MLSN #3]: NeurIPS Safety Paper Roundup
As part of a larger community building effort, I am writing a safety newsletter which is designed to cover empirical safety research and be palatable to the broader machine learning research community. You can [subscribe here](https://newsletter.mlsafety.org/) or follow the n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dhbLE8BqRvhBtsXhS/mlsn-3-neurips-safety-paper-roundup |
# Is there a good solution for documents that need to be signed with a ballpoint pen under suicide watch?
In Scott Alexander's article about his [IRB nightmare,](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/29/my-irb-nightmare/) he writes that one of the problems he faced is that the rules both said that documents have to be si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2N7roASwnaWakvyk/is-there-a-good-solution-for-documents-that-need-to-be |
# Nuclear Preparedness Guide
*Author: Finan Adamson*
*Last Updated 03/2022*
Overview
--------
This doc is to help you prepare for the tail risk of nuclear war. Estimates vary, but an [EA Forum survey](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zzBbRotDubk33YdGd/nuclear-preparedness-guide |
# Preparing for Power Outages in Disasters
Author: Finan Adamson
Last Updated: 03/2022
Overview
This doc goes into details on how to maintain electricity if it’s important to your survival and flourishing even when the power goes out. It may not be necessary to do anything here if you don’t depend on electricity to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ss2tXJkBbBtEy9aTK/preparing-for-power-outages-in-disasters |
# Prediction Market News/Ticker?
Lately I’ve been finding myself wanting a way to track how prediction markets have been changing with time. Some markets are pretty stable, while others drift from week to week or even swing violently. These trends feel like relevant news that I want as part of my information diet.
A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkCnjWywJgZb7sEHf/prediction-market-news-ticker |
# Value extrapolation, concept extrapolation, model splintering
*Post written with Rebecca Gorman*.
We've [written before](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1) that model splintering, as we called it then, was a problem with almost all AI sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i8sHdLyGQeBTGwTqq/value-extrapolation-concept-extrapolation-model-splintering |
# We're already in AI takeoff
Back in 2016, CFAR pivoted to focusing on xrisk. I think the magic phrase at the time was:
> *"Rationality for its own sake, for the sake of existential risk."*
I was against this move. I also had no idea how power works. I don't know how to translate this into LW language, so I'll just... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LbyxFk8JmPKPAQBvL/we-re-already-in-ai-takeoff |
# ELK prize results
From January - February the Alignment Research Center [offered prizes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals) for proposed algorithms for [eliciting latent knowledge](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjMKpSB2Xccn9qi5t/elk-prize-results |
# On presenting the case for AI risk
*\[*[*Cross-posting from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GvHPnzGJQJ7iAiJNr/on-presenting-the-case-for-ai-risk)*\]*
*Epistemic status: Personal anecdotal evidence, not fully thought through to my own satisfaction. I'm posting this anyway because if I wait u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jcA4rath4HvFtmdm6/on-presenting-the-case-for-ai-risk |
# Will Russia default, and if so, will it lead to financial crisis?
I live in South Korea. Apart from threat of nuclear war, which seems low so far, the primary impact of Ukraine war seems to be potential default of Russia and its possibility to lead to financial crisis.
"Will Russia default?" is a rare question with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RafeKJzEaN6ybj3AF/will-russia-default-and-if-so-will-it-lead-to-financial |
# Against Thinking About The Unactionable
There's always something that bothered me about people that talk too much about politics, especially at a national or global scale, especially using abstract concepts like "capitalism" and "socialism" rather than pointing to specific laws and regulations.
There's always somet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kQt5qHPfzi3L544sh/against-thinking-about-the-unactionable |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 7. From hardcoded drives to foresighted plans: A worked example
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
7.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the *[*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zXibERtEWpKuG5XAC/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-7-from-hardcoded-drives-to |
# Ask AI companies about what they are doing for AI safety?
[*Cross-posted from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZRpWCz4QQJ5MESFAX/ask-ai-companies-about-what-they-are-doing-for-ai-safety)*.*
Today, I had the pleasure of attending a talk by Jeff Dean at my university (Georgia Tech). Titled “[F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7dfqwqJWEbP6p8Qzx/ask-ai-companies-about-what-they-are-doing-for-ai-safety |
# Effects are correlated, policy outcomes are not, and multi-factor explanations are hard
(Repeating some of “[Policy debates should not appear one-sided](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeSzc9JTBxhaYRp9b/policy-debates-should-not-appear-one-sided)”, but expanding upon it and then countering “[Multiple Factor Explanat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LRJk55uBehJqL6dju/effects-are-correlated-policy-outcomes-are-not-and-multi |
# It Looks Like You're Trying To Take Over The World
*This story was originally posted as a response to* [*this thread*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DuPEzGJ5oscqxD5oh/shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures?commentId=hjd7Z4AN6ToN2ebSm)*.*
*It might help to imagine a hard takeoff scenario using only kno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5e9arCnbDac9Doig/it-looks-like-you-re-trying-to-take-over-the-world |
# Being Moral is an end goal.
Alice wants to go to her best friends party. She has a sore throat, and she usually takes a COVID test when she has a sore throat. But if the test were to come out positive she would feel like she shouldn't go, and she really really wants to go. Solution - she avoids taking the test, leav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LB4BmxePd2c6J6gbJ/being-moral-is-an-end-goal |
# Meadow Theory
*Author's note: *
*The essay below centers mostly on a philosophy of parenting. However, it's not "about" parenting—rather, parenting is a* domain *in which the concepts I'd like to convey can be easily represented and productively applied. Parenting is one specific instantiation of the broader set ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SvKpaPbZ2tibeDpgh/meadow-theory |
# The Proof of Doom
Epistemic Status: Ravings
Importance: Easily the most important problem in the world. If we can escape the proof of doom, we will likely also solve all our other problems as a side effect, and all that remains will be the fundamental limits. Our new questions will be things like "How much joy can ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xBrpph9knzWdtMWeQ/the-proof-of-doom |
# Donations, The First Year
A very belated crosspost from my [personal blog](https://jenn.site/2022/01/donations-the-first-year/), and written for an audience that might not be super familiar with EA/Rationality.
* * *
2021 was my first year with a full-time, steady source of employment, and *real* money.
Having id... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zrKuaNDKyLzrazD8R/donations-the-first-year-1 |
# Best LessWrong posts for understanding scientific studies.
For someone who is not totally quantitatively literate, or whose background is outside of STEM, what are the best resources for understanding scientific studies? I'm looking for books, articles, or posts that explain both the different parts of these studies... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8EyGL5JXJCQcdgyCJ/best-lesswrong-posts-for-understanding-scientific-studies |
# Treat Examples as World-Building
Tl;dr: Examples in an essay work like world-building in a fantasy novel: too little of them and the idea/story lacks substance, too many and it's weighted down.
[John](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth) keeps telling me to use more examples in my work and writing, and h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wpADDkyAG7ag4mcqj/treat-examples-as-world-building |
# Covid 3/10/22: We Have a Plan
Covid situation continues to improve, although Covid remains a thing. There’s a new executive plan that I did my best to read with incomplete success, that checks off lots of boxes and doesn’t have anything horribly wrong with it.
What’s less great is that Congress passed an omnibus bi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMDnqY7cspWxJswLf/covid-3-10-22-we-have-a-plan |
# Ukraine Post #2: Options
Or: Why the current situation once again proves the need for all of my pre-existing policy preferences.
Writing about the war is continuing to prove difficult, as things move quickly, the epistemic environment continues to be almost maximally hostile and a lot of elements are things where I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jeaaeDTyj2xmbkxqz/ukraine-post-2-options |
# What’s the chance a smart London resident dies of a Russian nuke in the next month?
_Credit allocation: the structure of this estimate, and some of the numbers, are basically lifted from a talk Nuño Sempere gave, but most of the numbers aren’t._
_Epistemic status: I spent maybe an hour putting this together. I spen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D5xzR7M7jkGMY6EJv/what-s-the-chance-a-smart-london-resident-dies-of-a-russian |
# I left Russia on March 8
I moved to Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, a small country in Central Asia. I am travelling with family and a toddler. The town is lovely and has many nice cafes.
International travel from Russia is still possible here, as many work migrants in Russia are from Kyrgyzstan. So planes are flying and m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uRn4kiWfppTFuJZaH/i-left-russia-on-march-8 |
# Book review: The Dawn of Everything
Book review: The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David
Graeber and David Wengrow.
This book is about narratives of human progress. I.e. the natural
progression from egalitarian bands of maybe 20 people, to tribes, to
chiefdoms, to states, with increasing ine... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gaBTLbDGmzSotEgqf/book-review-the-dawn-of-everything |
# Beyond micromarriages
*tl;dr micromarriages aren't fully analogous to micromorts, which makes it tricky to define them satisfactorily. I introduce an alternative unit: QAWYs (Quality-Adjusted Wife Years), where 1 QAWY is an additional year of happy marriage.*
I once compiled [a list of concepts](https://twitter.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/voLJhDWKmiQ4J6pqD/beyond-micromarriages |
# A Longlist of Theories of Impact for Interpretability
I hear a lot of different arguments floating around for exactly how mechanistically interpretability research will reduce x-risk. As an interpretability researcher, forming clearer thoughts on this is pretty important to me! As a preliminary step, I've compiled a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uK6sQCNMw8WKzJeCQ/a-longlist-of-theories-of-impact-for-interpretability |
# Ways to invest your wealth if you believe in a high-variance future?
I largely follow standard financial advice, for example I have a moderate fraction of my wealth in retirement accounts. But I also put substantial weight on the future being... extremely high variance, such that I think there's a pretty good chance... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BpkszMLBX6FJF6dba/ways-to-invest-your-wealth-if-you-believe-in-a-high-variance |
# If your solution doesn't work, make it work
Consider the following problem:
> There are an unspecified but finite number of chips on a table. Each chip is one of three colors: white, black or red. Define a "move" to be the act of replacing two chips of different colors with one chip of the third color. Prove that i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R82zuc4MZXvG2dJXY/if-your-solution-doesn-t-work-make-it-work |
# Deep Dives: My Advice for Pursuing Work in Research
**Context \[optional\]: **
--------------------------
I’m a Ph.D student at MIT doing research in technical AI safety. I mostly do work related to interpretability, adversaries, and robust reinforcement learning (see more [here](https://stephencasper.com/)). Ofte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B3z8PMqor3rivzgAv/deep-dives-my-advice-for-pursuing-work-in-research |
# Is There a Valley of Bad Civilizational Adequacy?
This post is my attempt to think through an idea that I’ve been mulling over since [this discussion](https://twitter.com/cat_neuron/status/1464717285797638145) on Twitter last November prompted by a question of Matthew Barnett, which I was reminded of while reading t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pZENSKwHzAcEAQZfN/is-there-a-valley-of-bad-civilizational-adequacy |
# Arguments are good for helping people reason about things
Yudkowsky recently posted a [Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1500863629490544645) about how ideal reasoners respond to arguments. My understanding of his reasoning is:
1. The more smart/rational/whatever you are, the better you are at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EKzuWCdKHriKixtEv/arguments-are-good-for-helping-people-reason-about-things |
# Book review of "Mengzi"
Book review of “[Mengzi: With Selections From Traditional Commentaries](https://www.amazon.com/Mengzi-Selections-Traditional-Commentaries-Classics-ebook/dp/B06ZY9R9XN/)”, trans. Bryan W. Van Norden
*This is a review of a classical Chinese philosophical text with a heavy focus on virtue ethic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XroaAZiMtanmt848f/book-review-of-mengzi |
# Bear Surprise Freedom Network
Here's some crazy nascent ideas I have for getting information in and out of Russia when other methods fail. From what I'm seeing, [current Internet censorship efforts focus on... the Internet](https://twitter.com/Killa_ru/status/1502075334669312002).
Rome, once a mere collection of huts on a hilltop overlooking the Tiber, grew to become a vast and hugely influential empire. Why?... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qBFQhRzGc729qnrDs/why-rome |
# Experience Restarting Contra
[BIDA](https://www.bidadance.org/), the contra dance that I help organize, has now had two dances since resuming. These have been with masks, proof of vaccination, boosters if eligible, email addresses for contact tracing, and as much ventilation as possible, which isn't that much in our... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9XdNm8XoBx6Kz7JR/experience-restarting-contra |
# Compute Trends — Comparison to OpenAI’s AI and Compute
This is a slightly modified version of Appendix E from our paper "*Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning*". You can find the summary [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XKtybmbjhC6mXDm5z/compute-trends-across-three-eras-of-machine-learning) and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sDiGGhpw7Evw7zdR4/compute-trends-comparison-to-openai-s-ai-and-compute |
# Anecdotes Can Be Strong Evidence and Bayes Theorem Proves It
# Anecdotes can be weak evidence
We all know that a lot of people overvalue their N=1 self-study: “I started eating only meat and my arthritis was cured!” Unfortunately, the weakness of this data is often attributed to the fact that it is an anecdote, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GZgheteNEwsJQYjoo/anecdotes-can-be-strong-evidence-and-bayes-theorem-proves-it |
# New GPT3 Impressive Capabilities - InstructGPT3 [1/2]
**Summary **
============
* InstructGPT3 (hereafter IGPT3*)*, a better version of [GPT3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has recently been released by OpenAI. This post explores its new capabilities.
* IGPT3 has new impressive capabilities and many pote... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dypAjfRCe4nyasGSs/new-gpt3-impressive-capabilities-instructgpt3-1-2 |
# How to Lumenate (UK Edition)
When my partner and I decided to move in together, I promised I would make our home bright and [lumenated](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hC2NFsuf5anuGadFm/how-to-build-a-lumenator) and optimized in ways that matter. So early on I bought three lamps (and fairy lights for the bedroom) an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xSfn84q3vdotALHuB/how-to-lumenate-uk-edition |
# Game theory, sanctions, and Ukraine
*Epistemic status: I am doing a master's degree in Economics and know quite a lot about game theory but have no expertise in war. I can recommend Bret Devereaux's blog on* [*nuclear deterrence 101*](https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/) *for a perspect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/izRemxP4FvtGEia7e/game-theory-sanctions-and-ukraine |
# Food manufacturers are out to get you
\[epistemic status: n=1, but the theory seems fine. Mixture of theory and personal narrative. Trigger warnings: body image issues, money, and info-dumping without a great narrative flow. I am not a good rationalist yet, haven't even finished reading the sequences yet, and th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PPeSqatTRsuFw3ug9/food-manufacturers-are-out-to-get-you |
# Whence the determinant?
The [determinant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Determinant) is a rather bizarre concept when one first encounters it. Given a square \\( n \times n\\) matrix \\( A \\), it's defined as
\\[ \det A = \sum_{\sigma \in S_n} (-1)^{\sigma} \prod_{i=1}^{n} A_{i \sigma(i)} \\]
where \\( S_n \\) is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tpem4iF8bJarswdv/whence-the-determinant |
# War-prompted Disaster Planning
Last week I wrote [a short note](https://www.jefftk.com/p/higher-risk-of-nuclear-war) encouraging people to revisit disaster plans in light of [Russia's invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). I wanted to follow up to share a bit about what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Fsg9ZhCNRyaFq9rhb/war-prompted-disaster-planning |
# Challenges to Yudkowsky's Pronoun Reform Proposal
> Go, Soul, the body's guest,
> Upon a thankless errand:
> Fear not to touch the best;
> The truth shall be thy warrant:
> Go, since I needs must die,
> And give the world the lie.
>
> —["The Lie" by Walter Raleigh](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trb9HPWFk... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/juZ8ugdNqMrbX7x2J/challenges-to-yudkowsky-s-pronoun-reform-proposal |
# Alex Tabarrok advocates for crowdfunding systems with *Refund Bonuses*. I think this might be a natural occurrence of a money pump against Causal Decision Theory pledgers
Essentially, his version of Kickstarter has Refund Bonuses. His rationale is that there's little benefit to investigate or promote a probably-fail... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5rQgbAitM9A7BRTFp/alex-tabarrok-advocates-for-crowdfunding-systems-with-refund |
# Shotgun Book Reviews: Against Method, The Knowledge Machine and Understanding Nature
*Epistemic status: *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
I read a lot of books. And during my current training to improve as an epistemologist, I ended ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4E2puzRLf9aE3tRRb/shotgun-book-reviews-against-method-the-knowledge-machine |
# Ukraine #3: Decision Theory, Madman Theory and the Mafioso Nature
This is a follow-up post to the last section of [Ukraine Post #2](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ukraine-post-2-options?s=w) on the need for Better Decision Theory.
In particular I want to think more about [the following result](https://twitter.com/da... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mtBezwiwnELSjCxgq/ukraine-3-decision-theory-madman-theory-and-the-mafioso |
# Omicron #16: Danger in China
What is happening in China?
[Scott Gottlieb says we essentially don’t know](https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1503335602334408705) the extent to which Omicron has spread in China.
What do we know?
[We know China has not made great use of its time](https://twitter.com/Jamie_from_PI... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Dp42yvzBTGxJwcc3/omicron-16-danger-in-china |
# Ethicality Behind Breaking the Glass Ceiling
I am a woman who works in finance.
When I originally studied finance I only went into it because I liked playing games with numbers and through some courses I had taken I recognized that there was a way to make money by solving the same math problems for other people. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xo9EZ3suvytgbdjbK/ethicality-behind-breaking-the-glass-ceiling |
# ELK contest submission: route understanding through the human ontology
This is an ELK proposal that received a prize in the category "[**Train a reporter that is useful to an auxiliary AI**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjMKpSB2Xccn9qi5t/elk-prize-results#Strategy__train_a_reporter_that_is_useful_for_another_AI)*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QrhCsuaEmSLzc8NQ4/elk-contest-submission-route-understanding-through-the-human |
# Dual use of artificial-intelligence-powered drug discovery
H/T [Aella](https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1503490760607469576).
A company that made machine learning software for drug discovery, on hearing about the security concerns for these sorts of models, asked: "huh, I wonder how effective it would be?" and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQhBhxFhChGExS5HE/dual-use-of-artificial-intelligence-powered-drug-discovery |
# Who is doing Cryonics-relevant research?
As part of my Biophysics Master, I am looking for a lab, to do a 3 months internship next winter.
I think one of the highest-impact applications of biophysics would be to research new&better methods for cryonic freezing, so I would love to get some insight into that field.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WLaXospD4yf4APGbK/who-is-doing-cryonics-relevant-research |
# Probabilistic Negotiation
Follow up to [Deterministic Strategies Can Be Sub-optimal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s57EudtibFHyMGEqM/deterministic-strategies-can-be-suboptimal)
The Ultimatum Game is a simple experiment. Two people have been allocated $10. One person decides how to divide the profits, and the othe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/swgLZTePahDqdQzDF/probabilistic-negotiation |
# My current thoughts on the risks from SETI
SETI stands for the search for extraterrestrial intelligence. A few projects, such as [Breakthrough Listen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Listen), have secured [substantial funding](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2015.18016) to observe the sky and crawl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWHkxqX4t79aThDkg/my-current-thoughts-on-the-risks-from-seti |
# AI researchers from Russia looking for a new home
Hello;
Throwaway account for obvious reasons.
A lot of AI researchers from Russia are looking for a new home. NLP, CV, etc.
If you can help in any way or know anyone who can help please DM me.
P.S. I think it would be a net positive for AI Safety to relocate ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DaWD4qH9GR7pMfeph/ai-researchers-from-russia-looking-for-a-new-home |
# Do small studies add up?
Suppose you want to estimate how tall Albert Einstein was. You ask a friend of yours, who suggests $5'\,9''$, though they have no particular reason to know.
$5'\,9''$ doesn't sound unreasonable. Of course you're still very uncertain. Say you're $95\%$ sure your friend, like any random Ameri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGAi8XY7uzGACW6n2/do-small-studies-add-up |
# Ukraine #4: Prediction Market Movement Modeling
[I previously looked at various prediction markets related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ukraine-post-1-prediction-markets?s=w). [Scott Alexander provides an update on some prices](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-314... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmqERfb7EzPFBTryQ/ukraine-4-prediction-market-movement-modeling |
# War Mode vs. Peace Mode
I first got this dichotomy by reading someone's comment on how Mao was a wartime general but not a peacetime general. Of course, it's possible that a more accurate model is not binary but a spectrum, or maybe it has more dimensions. Nonetheless, over time, I've found this heuristic useful.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyC3YKf4neJTBMk8w/war-mode-vs-peace-mode |
# Some (potentially) fundable AI Safety Ideas
* There are many AI Safety ideas I'd like to pursue, but I currently don't have the time for. Feel free to take these ideas, apply for funding, and, if you get funded, you can thank me by reducing existential risk.
* \[Note: I am not a funding manager or disperse funds... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FrdZaTyfBgEvPFqN4/some-potentially-fundable-ai-safety-ideas |
# Replacing Natural Interpretations
*Epistemic status: *[*exploratory*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aZdBsBeuT84cHpzw6/becoming-stronger-as-epistemologist-introduction)
If the Earth moves, why can’t we feel it? And why do object dropped from high places fall vertically instead of to the side (since the Earth is su... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tva9KB8hu3y53x6fR/replacing-natural-interpretations |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 8. Takeaways from neuro 1/2: On AGI development
*(Last revised: March 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
8.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the*[* “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fDPsYdDtkzhBp9A8D/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-8-takeaways-from-neuro-1-2-on |
# Thoughts on Crowdfunding with Refund Bonuses
Alex Tabarok [suggests](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/better-crowdfunding.html) improving crowdfunding by letting fundraisers offer a bonus as compensation for anyone that gets a refund if the project fails. By doing that the fundraiser solves ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sag8nLHX4KsMHRDTW/thoughts-on-crowdfunding-with-refund-bonuses |
# What do paradigm shifts look like?
One major question that heavily influences the choice of alignment research directions is the degree to which incremental improvements are necessary for major paradigm shifts. Because alignment is largely preparadigmatic, we may require a paradigm shift before we can make substanti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/waWKo339QyhJRbfh6/what-do-paradigm-shifts-look-like |
# On expected utility, part 1: Skyscrapers and madmen
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/16/on-expected-utility-part-1-skyscrapers-and-madmen/))
* Summary:*
Suppose that you’re trying to do something. Maybe: get a job, or pick a restaurant, or raise money to pay medical bills... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7J3ywHzWnghRtdpHQ/on-expected-utility-part-1-skyscrapers-and-madmen |
# Formal epistemiology for extracting truth from news sources
Disclaimer: I'm a long-time HPMoR/Sequences fan and ocassional lurker here at LessWrong. This is my very first post. English is not my first language.
I'm also Russian, and as you probably know Russia is in a bit difficult geopolitical situation right ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBF8zuqxBAfzYBk3k/formal-epistemiology-for-extracting-truth-from-news-sources-1 |
# Why a No-Fly-Zone would be the biggest gift to Putin, and why Zelenskyy keeps asking for it [Linkpost and commentary]
*\[Epistemic status: My best analysis from purely public sources on a constantly changing conflict in an actively adversarial epistemic environment. I have no special knowledge or expertise.\]*
This... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WX7tpnBCHWrmJcDym/why-a-no-fly-zone-would-be-the-biggest-gift-to-putin-and-why |
# Using GPT-3 for preventing conflict during messaging — a pitch for an app
I'm going to pitch an idea for an app, which I would love to see happen, but don't have time to build myself. My hope is that other people will steal and improve this idea because I believe it has the potential to help a lot of people includin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BKXbEMomadEznodMr/using-gpt-3-for-preventing-conflict-during-messaging-a-pitch |
# Is Grabby Aliens built on good anthropic reasoning?
An underlying assumption of the [Grabby Aliens paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.01522) by Robin Hanson *et al.*, if I understand it, is the following:
*We should expect to find ourselves as a member of a uniformly-randomly-selected civilization out of all civiliz... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y5nCyLBy9B6cJPsZN/is-grabby-aliens-built-on-good-anthropic-reasoning |
# Covid 3/17/22: The Rise of BA.2
Omicron has made its way through every major country except one – China. Its time seems to have come. [As I noted on Monday](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-16-china-in-danger?s=w), China had already locked down 60 million people amid rapidly rising case counts. Unlike prev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EzcZ82QbTcB3Bn7JB/covid-3-17-22-the-rise-of-ba-2 |
# Phase transitions and AGI
Take a look at the following graph, from Robin Hanson's [Long-Term Growth As a Sequence of Exponential Modes](https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.pdf):
Here, "world product" is roughly the gross world product divided b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ftdCgGmkQ3bPyDadA/phase-transitions-and-agi |
# On Defecting On Yourself
Sometimes I get into an anxious frame of mind where I try to prep for something as if my memory, my past self, cannot be trusted. This *feels* like an epistemically virtuous way to prepare for the world: double-checking all your past work and preparations as if they were made by someone you ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eLPNQGRwNDi2xcJeH/on-defecting-on-yourself |
# Nuclear Deterrence 101 (and why the US can't even hint at intervening in Ukraine)
This is a linkpost for [https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/](https://acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/) . I found it a very good read for explaining the strategy behind the decisio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kE4t3wdqDEmtPiaB/nuclear-deterrence-101-and-why-the-us-can-t-even-hint-at |
# On expected utility, part 2: Why it can be OK to predictably lose
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/18/on-expected-utility-part-2-why-it-can-be-ok-to-predictably-lose/))
*Previously in sequence:* [*Skyscrapers and madmen*](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/16/on-expected-util... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nPjMnPvMTajN9KM5E/on-expected-utility-part-2-why-it-can-be-ok-to-predictably |
# Only needs a flying saucer
This is a personal entry. I do not write it to convey much information, it's more of a point of view thing. I was asked for an inside view, but I guess that's not exactly it.
My mother, my son and I are now in the Czech Republic. This we owe to the goodwill and kindness of very many peopl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ocpwxq8L6TACDXxiZ/only-needs-a-flying-saucer |
# What Should I Do Today?
Skip to the last 3 paragraphs if too long.
What should I do today? This infamous question. I find the start of the day sets the precedent for the remainder—consciously or unconsciously. When you’re not severely unemployed, at least you have somewhere to be most days or at least some kind of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kfihooHkfokf7MMux/what-should-i-do-today |
# Cold Takes reader survey - let me know what you want more and less of!
I'm interested in readers' takes on what I should be doing more and less of on this blog. I will generally write what I feel like writing, even if my audience has asked for less of it, but knowing what my audience wants will have some effect on w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NYeQwEWSzgJaKy3kS/cold-takes-reader-survey-let-me-know-what-you-want-more-and |
# Notes on Social Responsibility
This post examines the virtue of **social responsibility**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations.
I wrote this not as an expert,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qug24xqmwxG69wfsD/notes-on-social-responsibility |
# Retrospective: Context and Communication
Context and Communication was the third Guild of the Rose course. The course served as an introduction to communication and spanned the four weeks from 12/01/2021 to 01/01/2022. It followed our established flipped-classroom model and was taught by Olivia, one of our Guild mem... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAo7MYjKfARJPnbSD/retrospective-context-and-communication |
# Thoughts on the SPIES Forecasting Method?
*Here, I discuss the SPIES forecasting method, and ask for the community's thoughts on it. *
Not too long ago, I came across the SPIES (Subjective Probability Interval Estimates) method for judgmental forecasting. The method was developed by Uriel Haran, and seems first to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CK33EfjGJvwaEsJB5/thoughts-on-the-spies-forecasting-method |
# Can you be Not Even Wrong in AI Alignment?
In January, I submitted a response to the Eliciting Latent Knowledge problem. I received a response with some short comments on what I labeled "Experience engaging with the problem", but no response to my approach, setup, or analysis. I subsequently followed up to no furthe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DbfQrno5W6SDT9ABc/can-you-be-not-even-wrong-in-ai-alignment |
# Wargaming AGI Development
I think wargames would be a useful tool for exploring AGI development scenarios. More specifically, I mean wargames of the kind used to train military officers in strategy. I think this format would help explore things like timelines and takeoff scenarios, in a way that is both concrete and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ouFnZoYaKqicC6jH8/wargaming-agi-development |
# Rationalists Should Learn Lock Picking
To be clear, I'm *not* suggesting a widespread movement within rationalism to begin skilling up and stealing things to fund X-risk research. I promise.
What I *am* suggesting is that I found the first ~3-5 hours of learning to pick locks (which I did from sheer boredom) to be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YzTeJP6oWnch3offs/rationalists-should-learn-lock-picking |
# Exploring Finite Factored Sets with some toy examples
Seeing as there is little secondary literature for the [Finite Factored Set](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N5Jm6Nj4HkNKySA5Z/finite-factored-sets) formalism, I thought I’d write up my experience of exploring it through some toy examples that are classic exampl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxuKtHH4jTdtmEAbK/exploring-finite-factored-sets-with-some-toy-examples |
# When will kids stop wearing masks at school?
I'm visiting Berkeley now and I walk past the local elementary school and I see all these kids running laps around the basketball court. Wearing masks. Gosh, PE class was bad enough back in my day... I talked to a high schooler walking by and they said that (in their scho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ssgPoCzfibrDwiNFA/when-will-kids-stop-wearing-masks-at-school |
# Know of any randomised trials teaching debiasing in schools? Want to help review them, or would that review help your work?
Last year [Elon Musk tweeted a list of cognitive biases](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1472647410568642564) saying they should be be taught at a young age.
I am not a communist. I think violent communis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CzufrvBoawNx9BbBA/how-to-prevent-authoritarian-revolts |
# What are the best elementary math problems you know?
I'm looking for math problems of a specific kind. Here are the conditions I hope the problems satisfy:
- A good mathematician who hasn't seen the problem before should take anywhere from 30 minutes to 2 hours to solve it.
- The solution should only involve underg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NnhvwKnABhsu6rgBv/what-are-the-best-elementary-math-problems-you-know |
# Civilization as Self-Restraint
*The following is the first post in the Civilization and Cooperation sequence, with the goal of laying out a coherent, explicit, and actionable model of what humans are doing when they form societies and adhere to their rules. Each essay is intended to communicate something like a sin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QRX5xbjq2omtbSFbg/civilization-as-self-restraint |
# How to ventilate
With contra dances [starting back up](https://www.jefftk.com/p/experience-restarting-contra) I'm thinking about ventilation again, both for reducing covid risk and generally making the hall more comfortable (lower temperature, lower humidity). I've seen a lot of ventilation arrangements over the yea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DEFKfrto5L4NvLLm9/how-to-ventilate |
# Searching for outliers
Shortly after I started blogging, because I was a college student and had nothing better to do, I set a goal to write every week. I started in September 2013 and wrote around 150 posts between then and when I started working at Wave. (At that point I stopped having nothing better to do, so my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WsSybGTqpBoHpXJyQ/searching-for-outliers |
# The Dawn of Everything: a review
Our book group has just read David Graeber and David Wengrow’s [*The Dawn of Everything*](https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/314/314162/the-dawn-of-everything/9780141991061.html). David Graeber, an anthropologist, wrote the very entertaining *Bullshit Jobs: A Theory*, and while an activ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wnpJNCv96bkqB5hwA/the-dawn-of-everything-a-review |
# Ukraine Post #5: Bits of Information
Rather than attempt a synthesis this time around, I’m going to experiment with the opposite. Over the course of the last three weeks, I kept adding to a long list of sources and interesting things the same way I do for Covid-19 posts, but without an overall update type of post th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C2Njf7NutyiYxGsxq/ukraine-post-5-bits-of-information |
# We cannot directly choose an AGI's utility function
This is my first post at this forum, and I am going to address a confusion that I believe some people have, and that may hinder some beginners from being able to contribute helpful ideas to the AI safety debate.
*Namely, the confusion is the idea that we can choos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yQJe3kdrXaxjwzigo/we-cannot-directly-choose-an-agi-s-utility-function |
# Jetlag, Nausea, and Diarrhea are Largely Optional
*Epistemic status: my best guess at the truth, with many of the standard medical-advice disclaimers omitted*
Many people I know are aware of drugs for basic ailments, but don't bother using them because they're too much trouble to carry around. But using a pill orga... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LJw98jjiZDBKiZxKB/jetlag-nausea-and-diarrhea-are-largely-optional |
# Counter-theses on Sleep
Alexey Guzey’s[ *Theses on Sleep*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HvcZmKS43SLCbJvRb/theses-on-sleep) gained a lot of popularity and acclaim on LessWrong and among people I follow on social media, despite largely consisting of what I think were weak arguments and misleading claims. I found th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbcmACvB6DqYXYidL/counter-theses-on-sleep |
# Even more curated conversations with brilliant rationalists
Since August 2020, I've been recording conversations with brilliant and insightful rationalists, effective altruists, and people adjacent to (or otherwise connected) to those communities. If you're an avid reader of this site, I suspect you will recognize m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HA7PsKqrss7spvqZ9/even-more-curated-conversations-with-brilliant-rationalists |
# Research Hamming Questions
We’ll start with Richard Hamming’s original question: what are the most important problems in your field?
(At this point, you should grab pencil and paper, or open a text file, or whatever. [Set a timer for at least two minutes](https://www.google.com/search?q=timer+2+minutes&oq=timer+2+m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Thwfy4gNFx9kHgvov/research-hamming-questions |
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