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# On expected utility, part 3: VNM, separability, and more
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/21/on-expected-utility-part-3-vnm-separability-and-more/))
*Previously in sequence:* [*Skyscrapers and madmen*](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/16/on-expected-utility-part-1-skyscrape... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AYSmTsRBchTdXFacS/on-expected-utility-part-3-vnm-separability-and-more |
# Brain preservation to prevent involuntary death: a possible cause area
(Cross-posted at the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sRXQbZpCLDnBLXHAH/brain-preservation-to-prevent-involuntary-death-a-possible))
Previous EA discussions of this topic: [here](https://forum.effectivealtrui... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h8s28fxsgeqhxGLSE/brain-preservation-to-prevent-involuntary-death-a-possible |
# Progress Report 1: interpretability experiments & learning, testing compression hypotheses
next post: [Report 2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nxLHgG5SCKCxM9oJX/progress-report-2)
Intro
-----
I got a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to refocus my career from data science & machine learning generally, to ai a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pvbWz5mEFCS6DFaWD/progress-report-1-interpretability-experiments-and-learning |
# Lessons After a Couple Months of Trying to Do ML Research
I’m a 17 y/o who started doing transformer interpretability work around October 2021, mainly for the learning experience, but also with the goal of potentially finding something cool and interesting about transformers. I’m writing this post to consolidate som... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9rn3HmprA9poujTN5/lessons-after-a-couple-months-of-trying-to-do-ml-research |
# Cyberwar escalation
From arstechnica article [Sabotage: Code added to popular NPM package wiped files in Russia and Belarus](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/03/sabotage-code-added-to-popular-npm-package-wiped-files-in-russia-and-belarus/):
> Two weeks ago, the node-ipc author pushed a new versio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KesXP4RsyB3FmAavs/cyberwar-escalation |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 9. Takeaways from neuro 2/2: On AGI motivation
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
9.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the*[* “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpdJz4k5BgGzuGo7A/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-9-takeaways-from-neuro-2-2-on |
# [Closed] Job Offering: Help Communicate Infrabayesianism
Infrabayesianism seems to me (Abram) like a very promising framework for addressing at least some of the problems of AI alignment.
* Like logical induction, it solves the realizability problem, creating an epistemic theory suitable for embedded agents.
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/83DimRqppcaoyYAsy/closed-job-offering-help-communicate-infrabayesianism |
# Flywheels of progress
What causes progress?
I’ve been investigating this for five years, and I still don’t have a full answer. But part of the picture is starting to come into focus. Here’s my current, incomplete model:
Progress compounds. It builds on itself. Progress begets progress. This is why progress is supe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3MivZpMsDhuwXSzP/flywheels-of-progress |
# Rational and irrational infinite integers
Epistemic status: a fine line between genius and madness
*
Let's start with the observation that it is much easier to use digits before the decimal point than the digits after it. A six years old child could calculate e.g. 11 + 2, but calculating reliably 0.11 + 0.2 will t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DYDRm9hWSCSyKTd8T/rational-and-irrational-infinite-integers |
# A survey of tool use and workflows in alignment research
TL;DR: We are building language model powered tools to augment alignment researchers and accelerate alignment progress. We could use your feedback on what tools would be most useful. We’ve created **a short survey that can be filled out **[**here**](https://fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ebYiodG3MAEqskCDG/a-survey-of-tool-use-and-workflows-in-alignment-research-1 |
# In the very near future the internet will answer all of our questions and that makes me sad
Today if I type into Google’s search bar “how to move a couch into a moving plane using only a pair of avocados” the first result is not particularly on-point:
> ### [14 Tips for Moving Furniture | The Family Handyman](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yB5ZhHxgrA8CA5K6D/in-the-very-near-future-the-internet-will-answer-all-of-our |
# On expected utility, part 4: Dutch books, Cox, and Complete Class
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/24/on-expected-utility-part-4-dutch-books-cox-and-complete-class/))
*Previously in sequence:* [*Skyscrapers and madmen*](https://handsandcities.com/2022/03/16/on-expected-utilit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wf3BqEWrwbQj3fksF/on-expected-utility-part-4-dutch-books-cox-and-complete |
# Experimental longtermism: theory needs data
*The series explains my part in the response to COVID, my reasons for switching from AI alignment work to the COVID response for a full year, and some new ideas the experience gave me. While it is written from my (Jan Kulveit's) personal perspective, I co-wrote the text wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eJz5zxCTdyHLqmyCr/experimental-longtermism-theory-needs-data |
# Christopher Alexander's architecture for learning
On the 17th of March 2022, Christopher Alexander, the architect and mathematician, passed away. [Alexander](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Alexander), whose intellectual influence extended far beyond architecture and urban planning, gave the impetus to sev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AFdMsYAopcXZo46sv/christopher-alexander-s-architecture-for-learning |
# The Ontics and The Decouplers
I recently came across the posts which underpin the usage of "decoupling" within the rationalist community. While useful, I think they conflate a distinct approach to how people think and communicate, which I call **Onticism**, with Decoupling.
> **ontic** /ˈɒntɪk/ adjective PHILOSOPHY... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rpxjyYXe2z3GX92fC/the-ontics-and-the-decouplers |
# Covid 3/24/22: Respite
All is quiet on the Covid front. Let us hope is stays that way.
Especially since we have no funding for anything.
Executive Summary
-----------------
1. BA.2 on the rise, leading to some local rises in cases as in NY.
2. Federal government is out of funding for Covid.
3. China looking te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qCSTHmYeNRrxB4uvM/covid-3-24-22-respite |
# Duels & D.Sci March 2022: It's time for D-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-data!
*This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset. *
STORY (skippable)
=================
You may have exper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mucvqyuo8o9ecbzea/duels-and-d-sci-march-2022-it-s-time-for-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d-d |
# Ukraine Post #6: More Data and Peace Terms
I was mostly happy with the Covid-style approach I tried out last time. This is an update of ‘all the things worth noting since then’ but excluding prediction markets. I plan to do a prediction market update next, and keep those two tracks distinct. I do talk a bit about ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/654o5j5WXtysgYBuA/ukraine-post-6-more-data-and-peace-terms |
# Is Metaculus Slow to Update?
h/t [Eric Neyman](https://twitter.com/ericneyman/status/1507371436259827714) for causing me to look into this again
On a recent [Mantic Monday,](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422?s=r) Scott Alexander said:
> This is almost monotonically decreasing. Every day it’... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPhc7q48Cmo7As2th/is-metaculus-slow-to-update |
# My mistake about the war in Ukraine
One month ago, I wrote a [blog post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9aiaJoiGGiyMjoqBq/ambiguity-causes-conflict) in which I made the following claim:
> Ukraine's ability to resist a Russian invasion by itself is even less than Poland's ability to resist a German invasion in 1939... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qdeiuMDioJ4pnaYEt/my-mistake-about-the-war-in-ukraine |
# Why Agent Foundations? An Overly Abstract Explanation
Let’s say you’re relatively new to the field of AI alignment. You notice a certain cluster of people in the field who claim that no substantive progress is likely to be made on alignment without first solving various foundational questions of agency. These sound ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWvzwCDRgcjb9sigb/why-agent-foundations-an-overly-abstract-explanation |
# [ASoT] Observations about ELK
This document outlines some of my current thinking about ELK, in the form of a series of observations I have made that inform my thinking about ELK.
*Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kWTko53s2DqTeprjz/asot-observations-about-elk |
# Primitive Perspectives and Sleeping Beauty
_This is another attempt to promote my solution to anthropic paradoxes ([perspective-based reasoning, PBR](https://www.sleepingbeautyproblem.com/))._
I propose the first-person perspective shall be considered a primitive axiomatic fact. "I naturally know I am this part... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4AB9Wg7jjStgrvsh2/primitive-perspectives-and-sleeping-beauty-1 |
# Your risk of developing long COVID is probably high
Context: I wrote the following on Facebook for a general audience. I'm posting it here because I'm very concerned. I'm severely disabled from a presumable* COVID infection 17 months ago. I haven't done deep dives into (m)any of these, so I'm plausibly wrong. Howeve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/emygKGXMNgnJxq3oM/your-risk-of-developing-long-covid-is-probably-high |
# Game that might improve research productivity
To figure out how to make progress on problems that require cognitive effort, it seems useful to think of times in the past when you’ve made lots of cognitive progress. For me, high school math camp was the most cognitively productive time.
It seems plausible that the m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WADNnKuMqzY4xin8G/game-that-might-improve-research-productivity |
# Compute Governance: The Role of Commodity Hardware
*TL;DR: Thoughts on whether CPUs can make a comeback and become carriers of the next wave of machine learning progress (spoiler: they probably won't). Meditations on challenges in compute governance.*
* * *
Over the coming decades, [we might see](https://www.lessw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z8BF9GwcCjeXShC4q/compute-governance-the-role-of-commodity-hardware |
# Agency and Coherence
*Epistemic status: spitballing.*
"Like Photons in a Laser Lasing"
================================
> When you do lots of reasoning about arithmetic correctly, without making a misstep, that long chain of thoughts with many different pieces diverging and ultimately converging, ends up making so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pdJQYxCy29d7qYZxG/agency-and-coherence |
# A Primer on God, Liberalism and the End of History
## Medieval Christendom
Medieval Europe’s political life was extremely fractured. The old continent was ruled by a variety of often feuding kings, emperors, lords and princes. Yet, political and cultural life still had a certain level of cohesiveness thanks to unif... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YBjxYtDXoKfhgfEno/a-primer-on-god-liberalism-and-the-end-of-history |
# Beyond Blame Minimization
Like a lot of people, I've become interested in the performance of public health bureaucracies over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. But while I've seen a lot of discussion of the specific flaws and failures of the FDA, the CDC, the WHO, etc., I haven't seen much discussion of the logi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmvrXn5kQ7nw6JJ8K/beyond-blame-minimization |
# What are the top 1-10 posts / sequences / articles / etc. that you've found most useful for yourself for becoming "less wrong"?
Posts can be from LessWrong, the EA Forum, or any other blog or forum. Articles from other sources are fine as well, as are videos or podcast episodes. Books don't count for the purpose of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rvifp9SNJJT7EQF2e/what-are-the-top-1-10-posts-sequences-articles-etc-that-you |
# [ASoT] Some ways ELK could still be solvable in practice
*Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top.*
This post is a followup to my [earlier post](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SbxWdhhwJWCpifTst/asot-some-ways-elk-could-still-be-solvable-in-practice |
# Manhattan project for aligned AI
One possible thing that I imagine might happen, conditional on an existential catastrophe not occurring, is a Manhattan project for aligned AGI. I don’t want to argue that this is particularly likely or desirable. The point of this post is to sketch the scenario, and briefly discuss ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5RMARxzSeMYoj7nFQ/manhattan-project-for-aligned-ai |
# [ASoT] Searching for consequentialist structure
*Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top. Thanks to Kyle and Laria for discussions.*
In [“Searching for Bayes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f6ByNdGJYxR3Kwguy/asot-searching-for-consequentialist-structure |
# Sums and products
Much of number theory is about trying to understand the interaction between two different structures on the integers (or the natural numbers): the additive structure and the multiplicative structure.
To clarify what I mean, consider the
[twin prime conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dvsCJLbvcu8EotGzk/sums-and-products |
# Do a cost-benefit analysis of your technology usage
If an unaligned entity invests billions of dollars into an application which you use, where they benefit from wasting your time, and you haven’t at least done a cost-benefit analysis so that your usage minimizes your costs and maximizes your benefits—*You are proba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fri4HdDkwhayCYFaE/do-a-cost-benefit-analysis-of-your-technology-usage |
# How many generals does Russia have left?
I’ve come across a large number of articles talking about the unprecedented number of generals (7) killed so far during the current war (see https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/26/ukraine-russan-generals-dead/ for instance), but I can’t easily find information online... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvMbxBMzTioFv7qTJ/how-many-generals-does-russia-have-left |
# Ukraine Post #7: Prediction Market Update
It has been about two weeks since [I last looked](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/15/ukraine-4-prediction-market-movement-modeling/) at the prediction markets for the invasion of Ukraine. Since then, prices on many markets have shifted quite a lot, so it is once again t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uC5YDJsXzLArQmJR3/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update |
# [ASoT] Some thoughts about deceptive mesaoptimization
*Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top. Thanks to AI_WAIFU for discussions.*
I think of mesaoptimizat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oijJc8Mu2jPNgpuvy/asot-some-thoughts-about-deceptive-mesaoptimization |
# Vaniver's ELK Submission
*You can see the actual submission (including a more formalized model)* [*here*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VQcRtsPsf7-Yp6OfucyErpKm6YEdQR-mlNQciq5ZKC0/edit?usp=sharing)*, and the contest details* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals)*.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9f4zBjiFndqbR8y6e/vaniver-s-elk-submission |
# Mental nonsense: my anti-insomnia trick
My dad used to suffer from insomnia, holding imaginary meetings in his head late into the night. I'm the same way.
One stress-relief technique from [Johns Hopkins](https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/wellness-and-prevention/sleepless-nights-try-stress-relief-techniques) is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JK7KF9AWBpjbZqTDn/mental-nonsense-my-anti-insomnia-trick |
# Can we simulate human evolution to create a somewhat aligned AGI?
*Epistemic status: less than 20% chance that this is a good idea. I've spent about 25 hours thinking about this.*
**TL;DR: If AI alignment is intractable, but human evolution is robust in producing something close to human values, we could try to si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qdmfKbEaZeiZs3buq/can-we-simulate-human-evolution-to-create-a-somewhat-aligned |
# Towards a better circuit prior: Improving on ELK state-of-the-art
_Thanks to Paul Christiano for useful comments and feedback._
# The basic circuit prior setup
We’ll start with the basic setup that we’re trying to improve upon, which is trying to solve [ELK](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ygmXXGjXZaEktF6M/towards-a-better-circuit-prior-improving-on-elk-state-of-the |
# Hinges and crises
*Crossposted from EA forum. The second post in the *[*sequence*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s) *covers the importance of crises, argues for crises as opportunities, and makes the claim that this community is currently better at acting with longer timescale OODA loops but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XrGwrC9n8sDgXimcJ/hinges-and-crises |
# Debating myself on whether “extra lives lived” are as good as “deaths prevented”
_Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc._
If we could do something to lower the probability of the human race going extinct,^[1](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/d1daba51-feba-4a28-a277-935581dee515... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Btqex9wYZmtPMnq9H/debating-myself-on-whether-extra-lives-lived-are-as-good-as |
# Retreat for rationality meetup organizers (apply to attend!)
**TL;DR** I'm running a retreat for meetup organizers in the Bay Area from July 21–24. More info [here](https://bit.ly/meetups-retreat); you can apply using [this form](https://forms.gle/t9x3HgtyBSYrNVas8).
ETA: The application form will be open through t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TtWkYbBfezM8kPfG3/retreat-for-rationality-meetup-organizers-apply-to-attend |
# Gears-Level Mental Models of Transformer Interpretability
This post aims to quickly break down and explain the dominant mental models interpretability researchers currently use when thinking about how transformers work.
In my view, the focus of transformer interpretability research is teleological: we care about t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X26ksz4p3wSyycKNB/gears-level-mental-models-of-transformer-interpretability |
# Beyond Blame Minimization: Thoughts from the comments
There were a lot of fantastic comments on [this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmvrXn5kQ7nw6JJ8K/beyond-blame-minimization) post. I want to break down some common themes and offer my thoughts.
### **Incentives**
Unsurprisingly, there was a lot of focus on the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zRoGpnK58wodBnLzi/beyond-blame-minimization-thoughts-from-the-comments |
# What would make you confident that AGI has been achieved?
Consensus seems to be that [there is no fire alarm for artificial intelligence](https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/). We may see the smoke and think nothing of it. But at what point do we acknowledge that the fire has entered the room? To be less ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bpJ3A5sDoBq6i83Xp/what-would-make-you-confident-that-agi-has-been-achieved |
# [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 10. The technical alignment problem
*(Last revised: January 2026. See changelog at the bottom.)*
10.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
*Part of the *[*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwX... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wucncPjud27mLWZzQ/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-10-the-technical-alignment |
# [ASoT] Some thoughts about LM monologue limitations and ELK
*Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top. Thanks to Kyle and Laria for discussion.*
One potential... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jiy3n5KMsGGJ6NNYH/asot-some-thoughts-about-lm-monologue-limitations-and-elk |
# Procedurally evaluating factual accuracy: a request for research
*I am grateful to Daniel Kokotajlo, Beth Barnes and John Schulman for feedback on this post.*
The purpose of this post is to request research on the design of precise procedures for evaluating how factually accurate pieces of text are. This stands out... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2zEeb36XL6HLnjDkj/procedurally-evaluating-factual-accuracy-a-request-for |
# How to Make Your Article Change People's Minds or Actions? (Spoiler: Do User Testing Like a Startup Would)
Are you writing an article that’s supposed to change people’s minds and/or actions? For example, an article about career advice, productivity, or getting people to apply for a job? Then this post is for you!
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8BGexmqqAx5Z2KFjW/how-to-make-your-article-change-people-s-minds-or-actions |
# Meta wants to use AI to write Wikipedia articles; I am Nervous™
Meta is experimenting with using AI to write Wikipedia articles: [https://ai.facebook.com/research/publications/generating-full-length-wikipedia-biographies-the-impact-of-gender-bias-on-the-retrieval-based-generation-of-women-biographies](https://ai.fac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3MQExEfkCMfAH8rir/meta-wants-to-use-ai-to-write-wikipedia-articles-i-am |
# Abandoned prototype video game teaching elementary circuit theory
About a decade and several hobbies ago, I was inspired to make an educational video game that would teach the intuitions behind elementary circuit theory (batteries, switches, diodes, capacitors, inductors, etc.).
After an inordinate amount of time,[... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tvWqFngQPPW38wsyb/abandoned-prototype-video-game-teaching-elementary-circuit |
# ELK Computational Complexity: Three Levels of Difficulty
[ELK is described](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/eliciting-latent-knowledge-elk) as a problem we wish to solve in the "worst case"; IE, for any potential failure case we can describe, we want to have a strong argument about why we won't run into that particula... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ztnkDKD5odorWt5dB/elk-computational-complexity-three-levels-of-difficulty |
# A bicycle for your memory
*Cross posted from* [*sortega.github.io*](https://sortega.github.io/other/2022/03/27/cyborg-memory-hierarchy/)
Computers have the need to store huge amounts of information and, at the same time, being able to access that memory at blazingly fast rates. This poses the problem of how to get ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pGhWW6cn2uRMuAR5J/a-bicycle-for-your-memory-1 |
# AXRP Episode 13 - First Principles of AGI Safety with Richard Ngo
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxwXLCQY1ns&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=13)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tEf8fEFCkFtPyg9pm/axrp-episode-13-first-principles-of-agi-safety-with-richard |
# Ways to organize a search for a missing person in LA from abroad?
TL/DR: My father-in-law is missing, asking for help/advice in coordinating search from abroad
This is not the thing I hoped I would post here after years of lurking, but situation is rather extreme and I try to get all the help I could get.
My fathe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C62qbH6i5jH6No9gh/ways-to-organize-a-search-for-a-missing-person-in-la-from |
# They Don’t Know About Second Booster
The FDA went ahead and did it, [approving a fourth vaccine shot for those age 50 or older](https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/29/health/covid-second-booster/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twCNN&utm_content=2022-03-29T17%3A00%3A18&utm_term=link). This is a reference post for tho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iPhKn78iofHHWJPCZ/they-don-t-know-about-second-booster |
# Covid 3/31/2022: More of the Same
BA.2 became the majority strain in the United States this week, as expected. Mostly things are continuing as expected, with unsurprising news on a variety of fronts. The biggest surprise is that the second booster shot was approved. Given I expect to be asked about that every so oft... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J5rhNwdDLFPHt2rw7/covid-3-31-2022-more-of-the-same |
# Newcomb’s problem is just a standard time consistency problem
*(Cross-posted from* [*my blog*](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/newcomb.html)*.) *
[*Confidence level*](https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/about-confidence-levels.html)*: medium*
I want to argue that Newcomb’s problem does not reveal any deep fl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u3hDWxgFitfvE5Tiw/newcomb-s-problem-is-just-a-standard-time-consistency |
# [Link] Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models
New LM scaling paper from DeepMind ([abs](https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556), [pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.15556.pdf)).
Abstract (my emphasis):
> We investigate the optimal model size and number of tokens for training a transformer language model under a g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4dbK5dPiqHCgNdKnq/link-training-compute-optimal-large-language-models |
# The Halting Problem and the Impossible Photocopier
*Epistemic status: the halting problem may actually still hold for quantum computers, I have no idea. I'm mostly interested in pointing out the sneakiness of assumptions.*
The Halting Problem is the following: imagine some class of algorithms $\mathbb A$. Can we ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEyar6asefGWjNcA8/the-halting-problem-and-the-impossible-photocopier |
# The lure of technocracy
I’ve said that [society was generally optimistic about progress until the early 20th century, and lost that confidence in the World Wars](https://rootsofprogress.org/a-new-philosophy-of-progress). By the late 20th century, from about the 1970s on, a deep skepticism and distrust of progress ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cy4N4eS47aBfDRiKu/the-lure-of-technocracy |
# Intro to hacking with the lambda calculus
*This is a linkpost that I'm posting in response to a request to share more of the archive of my* [*personal blog*](https://www.strataoftheworld.com/) *on LessWrong. It is most useful if you want to get some intuition for the lambda calculus, or more generally for how simple... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D4PYwNtYNwsgoixGa/intro-to-hacking-with-the-lambda-calculus |
# If AGI were coming in a year, what should we do?
Suppose AGI was very likely to arrive first around a year from now, with multiple projects close, but one a few months ahead of the others, and suppose that the AI safety community agreed that this was the case. What should our community do?
How would you answer diff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o3FmHewRzBCnMnsnj/if-agi-were-coming-in-a-year-what-should-we-do |
# Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
**Highlights**
--------------
* Keine Davon to become German Chancellor despite prediction markets' confidence to the contrary
* Netflix releases Korean soap opera: Forecasting Love And Weather.
* Hague to allow Treaty on Accuracy to stand
**Index**
---------
* Highlight... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igPdaAezS7hHrCQ65/forecasting-newsletter-april-2222 |
# Replacing Karma with Good Heart Tokens (Worth $1!)
Starting today, we're **replacing karma with Good Heart Tokens** which can be **exchanged for 1 USD each**.
We've been thinking very creatively about metrics of things we care about, and we've discovered that karma is highly correlated with *value*.
Therefore, we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1 |
# Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
If you use prediction markets to determine government policy then rational (and irrational) actors will manipulate the prediction markets in order to manipulate government policy. If you use prediction markets to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3cmqgjmKgXgxn24KZ/using-prediction-markets-to-guide-government-policy |
# [NSFW Review] Interspecies Reviewers
There is an [article](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-02-08/women-rights-revenge-patriarchs) in *Foreign Affairs* about how femininism and democracy go hand-in-hand. Grassroots movements with lots of women in them are more likely to be peaceful, more likely to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A69buYwaEj2knH38s/nsfw-review-interspecies-reviewers |
# Moses and the Class Struggle
"𝕿𝖆𝖐𝖊 𝖔𝖋𝖋 𝖞𝖔𝖚𝖗 𝖘𝖆𝖓𝖉𝖆𝖑𝖘. 𝕱𝖔𝖗 𝖞𝖔𝖚 𝖘𝖙𝖆𝖓𝖉 𝖔𝖓 𝖍𝖔𝖑𝖞 𝖌𝖗𝖔𝖚𝖓𝖉," said the bush.
"No," said Moses.
"Why not?" said the bush.
"I am a Jew. If there's one thing I know about this universe it's that there's no such thing as God," said Moses.
"You don't need... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pL4WhsoPJwauRYkeK/moses-and-the-class-struggle |
# A Brief Theology of D&D
At the beginning of history, entities gained power by eating each other. They each had goals, but few could accomplish anything in that environment. Over time the survivors gained information about each other, eventually allowing cooperation. They agreed to change the system: From now on, ent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7qii6be3qkjpjWeJm/a-brief-theology-of-d-and-d |
# Anti-Corruption Market
General Secretary Lu called his most trusted advisor Zhou into his office.
"Close the door," said the General Secretary.
Zhou closed the door with quivering arms.
"Don't worry. You're doing great. In fact, that's why I called you in today. I'm starting a new anti-corruption campaign," said ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/px8ha4wSXcmfejEF9/anti-corruption-market |
# Russian x-risk newsletter March 2022 update
I will not comment on the details of the current war as there are many good analyses elsewhere.
As international cooperation with Russia almost stopped, Russia can now "sell" only one "good": the lack of global catastrophes. By selling I mean using them as a topic of nego... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KYsfxcwQg4NBJXhBG/russian-x-risk-newsletter-march-2022-update |
# Kids Posts Retrospective
When I write about something I'm doing with the kids, I'm especially likely to write about it when it's new, because that's when it's most interesting to me. But some things that seem like they are a good idea at first regress to the mean, while others don't. Here are most of my parenting po... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7tykm38miMvhtPvjp/kids-posts-retrospective |
# Kosher Hot Dogs
If ever there were an industry that no one in their right mind would trust, it's hot dogs. First rule of hot dogs: you do not want to k... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zaswppmy6xzAxeDx4/kosher-hot-dogs |
# How Does The Finance Industry Generate Real Economic Value?
*Note: This piece will use “capital” in the popular sense, i.e. as a synonym for “money”.*
Plenty of people argue that some or all of the modern finance industry is engaged in zero-sum games. In particular, speculators, high-frequency traders, and broker-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JxirsA3icC4wTSEHt/how-does-the-finance-industry-generate-real-economic-value |
# Using prediction markets to generate LessWrong posts
I have a secret to reveal: I am not the author of my recent LessWrong posts. I know almost nothing about any of the topics I have recently written about.
Instead, for the last two months, I have been using [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/home) to writ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/stefz96G9ycfMhjD2/using-prediction-markets-to-generate-lesswrong-posts |
# Accounting For College Costs
Why are costs of certain things, most notably education and healthcare, skyrocketing so quickly, with relatively little improvement in quality? A few years ago, [SlateStarCodex](http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/02/09/considerations-on-cost-disease/) and [Marginal Revolution](https://margin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fJvjin8ETkzhFdadC/accounting-for-college-costs |
# Announcing Impact Island: A New EA Reality TV Show
Impact Island is the hip new reality TV show that all of your cool, chic, and longtermist impact-oriented friends would love to binge watch. Think "Survivor" meets "Shark Tank" meets "Open Philanthropy."
Premise
=======
The premise is simple: 36 young humble aspir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ezrT8A2h8iWqbEqoD/announcing-impact-island-a-new-ea-reality-tv-show |
# Good Heart Donation Lottery
*Note: This was for April Fools. I'll leave the original top text for posterity, but see the updates for the current state of actual donation lottery.*
Greetings, all!
Good Heart Tokens are clearly the mechanism we need to do more Good in the world. To that end, I'm starting a donation ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b9NGBDLGzTiHCSqD3/good-heart-donation-lottery |
# To Make Better Software, Do What Artists Do
*Special thanks to Justis for proofreading this post and to the LW team for setting up the* [*proofreading program*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsCwdYJEpmW5Hw5Xm/lesswrong-is-providing-feedback-and-proofreading-on-drafts)*. *
As developers, we like to believe that we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xmWfNDnEf36yQBLY9/to-make-better-software-do-what-artists-do |
# The real reason Futarchists are doomed
There are a lot of little ways political leadership is organized differently throughout the world. Looking just at outcomes, states themselves vary widely on a bunch of axes - you have command economies, like North Korea, and market economies, like Singapore and Switzerland. Yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xoKMh9aTQq369DSyt/the-real-reason-futarchists-are-doomed |
# [Link] sona ike lili
Toki Pona is a language constructed by Sonja Lang, as foretold by linguistic determinism. It is famous for only having about 120 or so words, and yet still being able to express a wide variety of concepts. Today, I am announcing [*sona ike lili*](https://sonaikelili.substack.com) (lit. little ba... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/La5uiGK2LsidfnhfH/link-sona-ike-lili |
# New Scaling Laws for Large Language Models
On March 29th, DeepMind published a paper, ["Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556), that shows that essentially everyone -- OpenAI, DeepMind, Microsoft, etc. -- has been training large language models with a deeply suboptimal use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/midXmMb2Xg37F2Kgn/new-scaling-laws-for-large-language-models |
# Towards trying to feel consistently energized
I go through weeks or months-long periods where I feel exhausted throughout the day and it's been getting worse over the past few years. I thought it might be sleep apnea - my dad has it bad and for him getting tested and hooked up to a Darth Vader mask changed his life ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c75odmMdpE4sR5bhs/towards-trying-to-feel-consistently-energized |
# The median and mode use less information than the mean does
Epistemic status: Unsure. I had this in drafts from a year ago, and am posting it for [Goodhart day](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karma-with-good-heart-tokens-worth-usd1). (Though it's April 1, all the arguments and statements... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X5iiFnsxCtT4zuzp3/the-median-and-mode-use-less-information-than-the-mean-does |
# Manafold Markets is out of mana 🤭
*Crossposted from* [*Above The Fold*](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/below-the-fold-manafold-markets-is?s=w)*.*
The problem
-----------
As you may know, we’ve been busy raising our seed round in the last couple of weeks. One piece of feedback we often hear from investors ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTudhBqqM2hxsmPpq/manafold-markets-is-out-of-mana |
# Two Forms of Moral Judgment
*Minor spoilers for HPMOR, I guess?*
SUMMARY
=======
Sometimes, if you do something, people will call it **good**. Other times, if you do something, people will call it **bad.**
These words actually cover two different kinds of moral judgment: judgment of **actions** and judgment of *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SHQcctSDdKjHMgroq/two-forms-of-moral-judgment |
# Interacting with a Boxed AI
A BOXED AI
==========
So, a thought experiment.
We have an AI-in-a-box. By this I mean:
* The AI can interact with the world only through a single communication channel.
* We control that communication channel.:
* We can communicate with the AI at will, it can communicate wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4T59sx6uQanf5T79h/interacting-with-a-boxed-ai |
# Taking Good Heart Tokens Seriously, So Help Me God
**Summary:** We probably can't just hand out a dollar per upvote and expect things to end well. But maybe there are other, less-corrosive ways to encourage Forum contributions:
* Maybe Karma could be used as the basis of a voting system for community decisions.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/daPNtewAycWNjyNML/taking-good-heart-tokens-seriously-so-help-me-god |
# MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy
tl;dr: It's obvious at this point that humanity isn't going to solve the alignment problem, or even try very hard, or even go out with much of a fight. Since survival is unattainable, we should shift the focus of our efforts to helping humanity die with with slightl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy |
# Optimality is the tiger, and agents are its teeth
You've done it. You've built the machine.
You've read the AI safety arguments and you aren't stupid, so you've made sure you've mitigated all the reasons people are worried your system could be dangerous, but it wasn't so hard to do. AI safety seems a tractable conc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality-is-the-tiger-and-agents-are-its-teeth |
# April 2022 Welcome & Open Thread
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3eSag3aAJediLLTRi/april-2022-welcome-and-open-thread |
# How can a layman contribute to AI Alignment efforts, given shorter timeline/doomier scenarios?
Versions of this question have probably been asked before, but MIRI at least is getting more pessimistic and I’ve seen Eliezer express multiple times that he doesn’t know what actually useful advice to give people who aren... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bHDqA9gf8ExbPknye/how-can-a-layman-contribute-to-ai-alignment-efforts-given |
# Inflection AI: New startup related to language models
Inflection AI ([website](https://www.inflection.ai/about.html), [announcement](https://greylock.com/portfolio-news/a-new-paradigm-in-human-machine-interaction/)) is a new startup founded by Mustafa Suleyman, Reid Hoffman, and Karén Simonyan. It appears they'll be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2PjoD96Kk7f2uoiEp/inflection-ai-new-startup-related-to-language-models |
# Community Building: Micro vs. Macro
We can identify two different[^qpdd0yucu] approaches to community building. The micro approach involves deeply engaging[^u3lq90cer1] with individuals in order to change their views or to assist in their journey. When adopting this approach, programs tend to be flexible, with guide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaydzmW4GsmdYnrNe/community-building-micro-vs-macro |
# Sydney AI Safety Fellowship Review
The Sydney AI Safety Fellowship was a 7-week program with a coworking space, speakers, mentors and social activities. The idea was for each participant to have a "project", but only one had a research project, whilst the others simply dedicated their time towards figuring out their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4e7rhoBSmKSxePvEd/sydney-ai-safety-fellowship-review |
# Good Heart Week: Extending the Experiment
The Good Heart Leaderboard, at the time of writing.
Yesterday we launched [Good Heart Tokens](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mz3hwS4c9bc9EHAm9/replacing-karm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/meYCJHJQDDGh5nSN2/good-heart-week-extending-the-experiment |
# I'm writing a novel to promote Effective Altruism
I’m currently writing a fantasy novel to encourage people to join the EA community.
I’ve made a living self publishing novels for years (mainly Pride and Prejudice fan fiction, but also two litrpg-esque works), and I’ve been interested in writing something to direct... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AesF7bgCqQDiw3XHf/i-m-writing-a-novel-to-promote-effective-altruism |
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