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# Betting Thread
At Ought, we’ve started making bets on our continuous predictions. We’ve found it a fun way to hold ourselves accountable and to combat overconfidence.
Here’s a thread for people to share continuous beliefs they’re willing to bet on, and make bets on other people’s beliefs. You can use [Elicit](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQj2oz6Ws89ugEFGX/betting-thread |
# Message Length
Someone is broadcasting a stream of bits. You don't know why. A 500-bit-long sample looks like this:
```
01100110110101011011111100001001110000100011010001101011011010000001010000001010
10100111101000101111010100100101010010101010101000010100110101010011111111010101
0101010101111111010101101010110111... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mB95aqTSJLNR9YyjH/message-length |
# Launching Forecast, a community for crowdsourced predictions from Facebook
Greetings! By way of brief introduction, I’m a long time lurker on LessWrong and a member of the team building [Forecast](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id1509378877), a crowdsourced prediction and discussion community. Full disclosure: we're ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CZRyFcp6HSyZ7Jj8Q/launching-forecast-a-community-for-crowdsourced-predictions |
# Box inversion hypothesis
*This text originated from a retreat in late 2018, where researchers from FHI, MIRI and CFAR did an extended double-crux on AI safety paradigms, with Eric Drexler and Scott Garrabrant in the core. In the past two years I tried to improve it in terms of understandability multiple times, but ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQwXPHfyyQwr22NMh/box-inversion-hypothesis |
# Problems Involving Abstraction?
I'm working on a post of examples for how to formulate problems involving abstraction (using the [abstraction formulation here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/ehnG4mseKF6xALmQy/p/vDGvHBDuMtcPd8Lks)). This isn't going to solve problems, just show how to set them up mathematically.
To tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XArPqdkwCtEekgYxv/problems-involving-abstraction |
# Book Review: Reinforcement Learning by Sutton and Barto
*Note: I originally submitted this for the Slate Star Codex (RIP) book review contest, but given the current drama it probably won't happen for a while (if at all), so I decided to share this review with the LW community in the meantime.*
*Cross-posted on my b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6zBnNjZfqTNLjP9j5/book-review-reinforcement-learning-by-sutton-and-barto |
# Sunday October 25, 12:00PM (PT) — Scott Garrabrant on "Cartesian Frames"
*Added: The event video is online* [*here*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1tJdaCvcck)*!*
This Sunday at 12 noon (PT), we're running another LW weekly online meetup.
MIRI's Scott Garrabrant will be giving a talk introducing **Cartesian Fra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N4uDrgFoZKJXhnHLw/sunday-october-25-12-00pm-pt-scott-garrabrant-on-cartesian |
# Stupid Questions October 2020
The stupid questions thread was one of the regular threads on LessWrong 1.0. It's a place where no question is to stupid to be asked and anybody who answers is encouraged to be kind.
This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3t3CWWTvvtLMLQzZc/stupid-questions-october-2020 |
# Reward large contributions?
Sometimes I want people to get $$$ for their contributions.
When someone posts a long, exceptional sequence? I don't get that feeling.
When folks working on the site itself roll out a sweet new feature? I don't get that feeling.
But when [https://www.lesswrong.com/users/lsusr](https://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tpnemkfiswqvCtqJh/reward-large-contributions |
# [AN #122]: Arguing for AGI-driven existential risk from first principles
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MxHiYZJjYm53ATxhb/an-122-arguing-for-agi-driven-existential-risk-from-first |
# The Uncertainty of Death and Taxes
Follow-up of sorts to: [Easy Mode](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/08/26/play-in-easy-mode/) and [Hard Mode](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2017/08/26/play-in-hard-mode/), also [Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/08/29/spoiler-free-review-death-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6Kdj4p5CBanau3a3/the-uncertainty-of-death-and-taxes |
# What's the difference between GAI and a government?
I have zero technical AI alignment knowledge. But this question has kept recurring to me for like a year now so I thought I'd ask.
A lot of the arguments for the danger of GAI revolve around the notion that an agent that is smarter than a human is un-boxable, self... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpRQcrJFXkqAwp8iu/what-s-the-difference-between-gai-and-a-government |
# Rationalist Town Hall: Pandemic Edition
On Sunday 1st November at 12 pm PT, Divia Eden, Anna Salamon, Zvi Mowshowitz, Oliver Habryka and I (Ben Pace) are hosting a Town Hall at [**this Zoom link**](https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82465740322), for rationalists to share models of the ongoing pandemic and how we’re respondi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BfzPGuT6RxywkakA7/rationalist-town-hall-pandemic-edition |
# Virtue ethics and why the rationalist community might care about it.
This post introduces [“virtue ethics”](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-virtue/) and explains why you might find it worth pursuing.
Virtue ethics is meant to be of practical help
----------------------------------------------
The two mai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZYADHcQFXwwsaqrMq/virtue-ethics-and-why-the-rationalist-community-might-care |
# Babble challenge: 50 ways of solving a problem in your life
Back again. Let’s [become stronger](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger).
This week’s challenge:
Years ago you found yourself hurled into existence, facing a vast universe with a mind capable of the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mHx3Mn65HfSj4K9RE/babble-challenge-50-ways-of-solving-a-problem-in-your-life |
# Learning is (Asymptotically) Computationally Inefficient, Choose Your Exponents Wisely
*Epistemic status: A speculation based on personal observations, but looks coherent to me. (Sorry, no links or literature search)*
**Summary: Studying a subject gets progressively harder as you learn more and more, and the effort... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kcKZoSvyK5tks8nxA/learning-is-asymptotically-computationally-inefficient |
# The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over
Instead, it’s the point of no return—the day we AI risk reducers lose the ability to significantly reduce AI risk. This might happen years before classic milestones like “World GWP doubles in four years” and “Superhuman AGI is deployed."
The rest of this post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPan54R525D68NoEt/the-date-of-ai-takeover-is-not-the-day-the-ai-takes-over |
# "Little glimpses of empathy" as the foundation for social emotions
**(Note: I published a much-improved discussion of this topic two years later: See** [**Symbol Grounding & Human Social Instincts**](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5F5Tz3u6kJbTNMqsb/intro-to-brain-like-agi-safety-13-symbol-grounding-and-human)*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mh2p4MMQHdEAqmKm8/little-glimpses-of-empathy-as-the-foundation-for-social |
# Introduction to Cartesian Frames
This is the first post in a sequence on **Cartesian frames**, a new way of modeling agency that has recently shaped my thinking a lot.
Traditional models of agency have some problems, like:
* They treat the "agent" and "environment" as primitives with a simple, stable input-outpu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames |
# Covid 10/22: Europe in Crisis
America’s Covid-19 situation has clearly entered a third wave. Cases and positive test percentages across the country are rising steadily, and deaths are finally starting to follow suit over the last few days. The scaremongers greatly oversold things, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qu8zf7p5dMLTv4QEb/covid-10-22-europe-in-crisis |
# My case for starting blogging
_(This is a retrospective post on a month of daily blogging on my personal blog, what I got out of it, my case for the benefits of regular writing and why this is a good use of your time, and advice for starting a daily writing project yourself)_
Retrospective
-------------
Overall, I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7qo54rqapgLYNWCu7/my-case-for-starting-blogging |
# Effective Epidemiology
# Introduction:
In my previous [article](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5rujyv5T37CFkCcws/covid-strategy-101) I discussed some of the basic theories about how COVID spreads and how it can be effectively fought.
This article does not require having read that article but will refer to the [hom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CDq4sraQ6h3DMimki/effective-epidemiology |
# An Open Letter On Love
*This post originated as an open letter to my own family this past June, later republished on a political community blog. It was born out of a dissatisfaction with how Love is popularly conceived of, as a vague positive force one pays lip service to, rather than a concrete and potent phenomeno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6t2sgwLSGuTMfHnMe/an-open-letter-on-love |
# The Trouble With Babbles
I haven't yet participated in any of our babble challenges, even though I think they're a good idea. My reason is that they are ambiguous and prone to Goodhart's law. If the challenge is to list 50 ways of getting a golf ball to the moon, no matter how silly, I could do this:
1. Carry it w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFcRmKRkdQooDS7cS/the-trouble-with-babbles |
# What is the current bottleneck on genetic engineering of human embryos for improved IQ
That is, what is the technological constraint that is most limiting our ability to significantly enhance the cognitive performance of people born this year?
Links to long-form sources that answer this, and related questions, wou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X2ASKwjvbXR6YFT66/what-is-the-current-bottleneck-on-genetic-engineering-of |
# Should we use qualifiers in speech?
Consider
> From what I understand, technological progress happens exponentially.
vs.
> Technological progress happens exponentially.
The difference is the "from what I understand" part. Other examples of such qualifiers include:
* It seems to me
* My impression is that
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rEKhZQNPpw2NgcdKu/should-we-use-qualifiers-in-speech |
# The bads of ads
In London at the start of the year, perhaps there was more advertising than there usually is in my life, because I found its presence disgusting and upsetting. Could I not use public transport without having my mind intruded upon continually by trite performative questions?
![London underground](htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nHuCZLkfx3fs9sgRe/the-bads-of-ads |
# Humans are stunningly rational and stunningly irrational
Are humans mainly rational or mainly irrational? This is an old debate, with some political implications.
But the question is ill posed, because it elides the important detail: compared with what?
# Humans are stunningly irrational
Let $V$ be some reward/ut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X8KQBjszbSDXzBwgP/humans-are-stunningly-rational-and-stunningly-irrational |
# Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle
Most times I go to update a forecast, nothing has happened. There are several ways to update on this, which I explore below.
This post was written after Ozzie Gooen suggested I play around with Squiggle, following up on his earlier [Multivariate estima... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using |
# Local Solar Time
Sometimes we talk about how society is "path dependent": what things would be different if history had not followed its particular path? One place that's fun to think about is time. Until the development of [railways](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_zone#Railway_time), places used local solar tim... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQYN4BgS7yTcM6Kwb/local-solar-time |
# No Causation without Reification
I don't know how inspiring "no causation without reification" is as a rallying cry. Probably not very. But as a pithy description of an important insight, I think it's quite nice.
There's lots of reason to care about causation. In fact, it's hard to talk about much of anything witho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RMBMf85gGYytvYGBv/no-causation-without-reification |
# What is our true life expectancy?
I [recently learned](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3t3CWWTvvtLMLQzZc/stupid-questions-october-2020?commentId=rabfDpHZhddYWhDZt) that when they talk about a life expectancy of eg. 80 years, it's assuming that the future looks similar to the past. But with exponential progress in te... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E6WWtyxeMtfBFY5cM/what-is-our-true-life-expectancy |
# The Darwin Game - Rounds 0 to 10
The most important change between my game and Zvi's original is that bots can read each others' source code. They can simulate each other and predict each others' behavior. Within a day of the tournament launching—and an entire week before entries closed—Zack\_M\_Davis had already wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tq8qeRxQ4pB3b5RKg/the-darwin-game-rounds-0-to-10 |
# “Prediction” and “explanation” are not causation
Everyone knows that correlation is not causation. Many people don't know that in scientific jargon, “predict” and “explain” are *also* not causation. They are forms of correlation.
(Technically, “association” might be a better term than “correlation”, which can have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQF7Gkh2an66t9Xhv/prediction-and-explanation-are-not-causation |
# Notes on Courage
This post examines the virtue of **courage** and explores some practical strategies for becoming more courageous.
Courage (sometimes “bravery” or the closely-related virtue of “valor”) is one of the most frequently mentioned virtues in virtue-oriented traditions. It was one of [the four “cardinal v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSXaGBtPQ5MM2fm2P/notes-on-courage |
# Why Huntington-Hill?
The US House of Representatives uses the [Huntington-Hill method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huntington%E2%80%93Hill_method) to figure out how many representatives each state should have. First you give each state one representative, because even the smallest state is guaranteed one, and then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rmWzNukTQG3dm6zeZ/why-huntington-hill |
# Yet another world spirit sock puppet
*Crossposted from* [*world spirit sock puppet*](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/)*.*
I have almost successfully made and made decent [this here](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/) my new blog, in spite of little pre-existing familiarity with relevant tools beyond things like ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3MwRiz7CkGrbQgvLm/yet-another-world-spirit-sock-puppet |
# Increasing Isolation Again
The coronavirus is getting much worse in Massachusetts, as it is in many places. Wastewater levels do not look good:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/boston-wastewater-covid-2020-10-25-big.png)
Neither does the percentage of test... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ki3wmWLvtEZvKDSmQ/increasing-isolation-again |
# Reply to Jebari and Lundborg on Artificial Superintelligence
Jebari and Lundborg have recently published an article entitled [*Artificial superintelligence and its limits: why AlphaZero cannot become a general agent*](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-01070-3). It focuses on the thorny issue of ag... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rokpjK3jcy5aKKwiT/reply-to-jebari-and-lundborg-on-artificial-superintelligence-1 |
# Models predicting significant violence in the US?
**Do you have a model predicting >1% chance of significant political violence (>5,000 deaths) in the US in the next year? Pls share.**
**Also welcome: models predicting <.1%**
Metaculus has been walking around [1-5% probability of a US civil war before July 2021](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhgRmkcuKAxbRyzaQ/models-predicting-significant-violence-in-the-us |
# But what kinds of puppets are we?
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
I watched [The Social Dilemma](https://www.thesocialdilemma.com/) last night. I took the problem that it warned of to be the following:
1. Social media and similar online services make thei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HZjDWpTEFEnw3GHEu/but-what-kinds-of-puppets-are-we |
# Sam Altman at SlateStarCodex Online Meetup
Our online meetup on November 8, at 10:30 AM Pacific Standard Time, 18:30 UTC, 20:30 Israel Standard Time, will feature Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, who will be answering questions. We will then have open video-chat rooms as usual.
We hope to focus the Q&A on AI, AGI, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xwgENfD98sWPoxdXJ/sam-altman-at-slatestarcodex-online-meetup-1 |
# Supervised learning of outputs in the brain
*Follow-up to:* [*My computational framework for the brain*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diruo47z32eprenTg/my-computational-framework-for-the-brain).
*(Epistemic status: In what's becoming a pattern, I tried reading the standard neuroscience discussions in this area b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jNrDzyc8PJ9HXtGFm/supervised-learning-of-outputs-in-the-brain |
# Additive Operations on Cartesian Frames
The mathematical object (but not the philosophical interpretation) of a [Cartesian Frame](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) is studied under the name "Chu space."
(In category theory, Chu spaces are usually studied in the spec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ewkYgtZapQRtDPT2F/additive-operations-on-cartesian-frames |
# Does playing hard to get work? AB testing for romance
# Motivation
I have long wondered if I would be more romantically successful if I played hard to get. In a majority of my relationships I pretend to be less interested in my (female) to increase their interest in me. Because I am unusually affectionate, excitabl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ivQLFk97rMbyn4dGQ/does-playing-hard-to-get-work-ab-testing-for-romance |
# Is Success the Enemy of Freedom? (Full)
I. Parables
-----------
A. Anna is a graduate student studying p-adic quasicoherent topology. It’s a niche subfield of mathematics where Anna feels comfortable working on neat little problems with the small handful of researchers interested in this topic. Last year, Anna stum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D4hHASaZuLCW92gMy/is-success-the-enemy-of-freedom-full |
# Top Time Travel Interventions?
I encourage people to treat this as an exercise and avoid looking at the other answers before posting your own. (Maybe use spoiler blocks?) This is more for fun than for serious. However, it may potentially serve as [an analogy](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7khK4DShZBR8gfyHv/chronop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mASRjBQ5T95KX8vyn/top-time-travel-interventions |
# A Correspondence Theorem
I’ve been [thinking lately](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/74crqQnH8v9JtJcda/egan-s-theorem) about formalizations of the [Correspondence Principle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondence_principle) \- the idea that new theories should reproduce old theories, at least in the places whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWuByzM9T5qq2PF2n/a-correspondence-theorem |
# Security Mindset and Takeoff Speeds
About this post
---------------
This post is a stylized transcript of a conversation between Rohin Shah and Daniel Filan, two graduate students at CHAI, that happened in 2018. It should not be taken as an exact representation of what was said, or even what order topics were broug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lfk2FXBwrpoM6Jm7p/security-mindset-and-takeoff-speeds |
# On the Dangers of Time Travel
It has been [obvious for decades](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/qMtriMPLdriNkAfSJ/p/rPhiu4RhMEgrp3CMH) to anyone who understands quantum mechanics that that the scientific consensus on theoretical physics [is wrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Kqs6GR7F5xziuSyGZ). General relativity is bac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vTE8rAhpEbnaFEAwM/on-the-dangers-of-time-travel |
# Book review: Age Later
Book review: Age Later, by Nir Barzilai.
Books by serious researchers on how to defeat aging are now coming out
almost as fast as I have time to read them.
This one mostly aims to enable us live in good health to 115, preferably
via a few simple pills.
Age Later is fairly similar to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8mz7zi6D6Y35dar4/book-review-age-later |
# Announcing Data Secrets Lox: An Alternative to Slate Star Codex Open Threads
In light of the [shutdown](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-real-name-so-i-am-deleting-the-blog/) of Slate Star Codex, and in particular, the lack of new SSC Open Threads, much of the SSC c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C4zGFvPtbWsvEbmbv/announcing-data-secrets-lox-an-alternative-to-slate-star |
# Dutch-Booking CDT: Revised Argument
*This post has benefited greatly from discussion with Sam Eisenstat, Caspar Oesterheld, and Daniel Kokotajlo.*
[Last year, I wrote a post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/fgHSwxFitysGKHH56/p/wkNQdYj47HX33noKv) claiming there was a Dutch Book against CDTs whose counterfactual expectat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X7k23zk9aBjjpgLd3/dutch-booking-cdt-revised-argument |
# Whence the symptoms of social media?
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
A thing I liked about _The Social Dilemma_ was the evocative image of oneself being in an epic contest for one’s attention with a massive and sophisticated data-nourished machine, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hkhvAe8X57aCpTqR5/whence-the-symptoms-of-social-media |
# Memory reconsolidation for self-affection
Last Thursday, I realized that *none of the people who ever hurt me did it because there was anything fundamentally wrong with me*.
I don’t mean that as in “realized intellectually”, I mean as in “realized emotionally so that in any shame-tinged memory that I could think of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bNHzQyMrSx8ZKKxYk/memory-reconsolidation-for-self-affection |
# Spoiler-Free Review and then Semi-Walkthrough: Star Traders: Frontiers
Star Traders: Frontiers is a Tier 2 open-world game in which you have a starship and you go where you want and do what you want. You can be any or all of: A merchant who takes spices from one port and moves them to another port, an explorer of wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KtF6Tdd7uMMRov9Aq/spoiler-free-review-and-then-semi-walkthrough-star-traders |
# How can I reconcile these COVID test false-negative numbers?
[effort level: thinking out loud, plus a couple hours' googling]
There's been a lot of press lately around [Costco selling an “AZOVA” at-home COVID test...](https://www.azovahealth.com/costcotest)
> ...with a sensitivity of 98% (meaning 98% of positive t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4CSiLCimrshPcPj5a/how-can-i-reconcile-these-covid-test-false-negative-numbers |
# Notes on Honesty
This post examines the virtue of **honesty** (a.k.a. “truthfulness,” “veracity”).[^hmnnounwgs9] As with my other posts in this sequence, I’m less interested in breaking new ground and more in synthesizing whatever wisdom I could find on the subject. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9iMMNtz3nNJ8idduF/notes-on-honesty |
# Desperation hamster wheels
In my first few jobs, I felt desperate to have an impact. I was often filled with anxiety that I might not be able to. My soul ached. Fear propelled me to action. I remember sitting in a coffee shop one Saturday trying to read a book that I thought would help me learn about biosafety, an i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CfQ8w4S4CtRuinWgi/desperation-hamster-wheels |
# Why indoor lighting is hard to get right and how to fix it
The days are getting shorter in the northern hemisphere, and with the ongoing pandemic, most of us expect to be spending more time in our homes than normal. Creating a healthy home environment is more important than usual, and the light inside your home is a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7izSBpNJSEXSAbaFh/why-indoor-lighting-is-hard-to-get-right-and-how-to-fix-it |
# "Cartesian Frames" Talk #2 this Sunday at 2pm (PT)
Scott Garrabrant of MIRI is giving a second talk on Cartesian Frames this Sunday, Nov. 1 at 2pm (PT), covering the contents of his [Cartesian Frames posts](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/2A7rrZ4ySx6R8mfoT) this week. Afterwards, there will be a Q&A and freeform discuss... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u5BnSu3EQR6hGbC39/cartesian-frames-talk-2-this-sunday-at-2pm-pt |
# Biextensional Equivalence
This is the third post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
This post will introduce the standard equivalence relations we'll be using for Cartesian frames. Our primary interest wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pWruFSY7494vnucCE/biextensional-equivalence |
# Draft papers for REALab and Decoupled Approval on tampering
Hi everyone, we (Ramana Kumar, Jonathan Uesato, Victoria Krakovna, Tom Everitt, and Richard Ngo) have been working on a strand of work researching tampering problems, and we've written up our progress in two papers. We're sharing drafts in advance here beca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X23q6T4CDifHykqi4/draft-papers-for-realab-and-decoupled-approval-on-tampering |
# [AN #123]: Inferring what is valuable in order to align recommender systems
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HbtRFDiyTDpPfRLqm/an-123-inferring-what-is-valuable-in-order-to-align |
# What risks concern you which don't seem to have been seriously considered by the community?
There are a few things I'm worried about which I have not seen discussed much, and it makes me wonder what we're collectively missing.
This seems like a question which has likely been asked before, but my Google-fu did not f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2uogM7cRByLzncJje/what-risks-concern-you-which-don-t-seem-to-have-been |
# Reasons that discussions might feel hopeless
First posted on r/erisology - [link](https://www.reddit.com/r/erisology/comments/jfxtxr/reasons_that_discussions_might_feel_hopeless/).
I tried to come up with a way to detect trolls, realized that actually what I want to achieve is a way to detect conversation that I wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfbMe3TBLz8LakhY8/reasons-that-discussions-might-feel-hopeless |
# What's holding back outsourcing to cloud labs?
I would have expected Emerald Cloud Lab or similar competitors to go a lot and be successful over the last five years. As far as I know, like Emerald Cloud Lab only had modest growth and there aren't competitors who grew strongly. Outsourcing to cloud labs seems like it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJ3PSYDrNHiKxgAtK/what-s-holding-back-outsourcing-to-cloud-labs |
# Secular Solstice Online (Americas)
Back in those days, there was darkness, and so we created light.
There was hunger, and so we invented agriculture.
There was sickness, and so we created medicine.
Back in \*these\* days, well, there was still sickness sometimes, and many of us continued to create medicin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PGawfcSvpEZ8RqCP9/secular-solstice-online-americas |
# Babble challenge: 50 consequences of intelligent ant colonies
[Tsuyoku Naritai!](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger)
* * *
The evening sun sets on the horizon. An owl hoots ominously. You stare at the ant hill in disbelief. You’ve checked the data many times... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C9xAy4fY7DjSS5ELB/babble-challenge-50-consequences-of-intelligent-ant-colonies |
# AI risk hub in Singapore?
I tentatively guess that if Singapore were to become a thriving hub for AI risk reduction, this would reduce AI risk by 16%. Moreover I think making this happen is fairly tractable and extremely neglected. In this post I sketch my reasons. I'm interested to hear what the community thinks. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QTL5tRz7Q54bpcwdE/ai-risk-hub-in-singapore-1 |
# Covid Covid Covid Covid Covid 10/29: All We Ever Talk About
Trump [wishes to register a complaint](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnciwwsvNcc&ab_channel=morpheusatloppers).
He does so within [a thread full of clips that have to be seen to be believed](https://twitter.com/i/status/1320053682759663622) but which yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HyqjNnpGsdLMEJuo/covid-covid-covid-covid-covid-10-29-all-we-ever-talk-about |
# Controllables and Observables, Revisited
This is the fourth post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
Previously, we defined controllables as the sets of possible worlds an agent can both ensure and prevent,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z3S2xnoDYfohrQQoe/controllables-and-observables-revisited |
# The Darwin Game - Round 1
# Technical Difficulties
I messed up the game engine. I gave bots their own move in the `previous` parameter instead of their opponent's move.
This is the primary factor behind the CloneBots [diverging](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tq8qeRxQ4pB3b5RKg/the-darwin-game-rounds-0-to-10?comme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YsdCAQaHGcjmeBGyy/the-darwin-game-round-1 |
# How to Find the Frontiers of Knowledge
*This article is based on my lecture at Topos House, San Francisco on February 29, 2020. It was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can* [*access the original here.*](http://samoburja.com/how-to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e59dno7ExC2uZxDcF/how-to-find-the-frontiers-of-knowledge |
# Responses to Christiano on takeoff speeds?
It's been over two and a half years since Paul put [this blog post on takeoff speeds](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) online. In particular, it argues that the "fast takeoff" undergone by humans is not very strong evidence that AIs will also undergo a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sACaK4tBvPHkEQW9w/responses-to-christiano-on-takeoff-speeds |
# Functors and Coarse Worlds
This is the fifth post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
Up until this point, we have only been working with Cartesian frames over a fixed world $W$. Now, we are going to start ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GYQwJsChoRosjdW2r/functors-and-coarse-worlds |
# Trick-or-treating in Covid Times
Somerville has asked its residents not to trick-or-treat:
> Mayor Joseph A. Curtatone and the Somerville Board of Health announced Halloween guidance and related updates today. They strongly urge all community members to forgo trick-or-treating in favor of lower-risk activities as d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QxgeqHbwhRdvpFKDt/trick-or-treating-in-covid-times |
# How do you read the news critically?
*Epistemic status: My own theories that developed over years based on reading and giving mainstream media interviews about Quantified Self.*
When the phrase 'fake news' became popular in 2016, many people called for critical news consumption. The American left used the term to t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yYqrMFzsRgLgeguPL/how-do-you-read-the-news-critically |
# Taking Ideas Seriously is Hard
Most people don’t practice taking ideas seriously. I think it’s because most people don’t know how to. I didn’t either, until I stumbled upon an implication.
For example, what would it mean to take compounding seriously?
Ugh. I can feel your aversion. You’ve already heard so much abo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8iHTPoajH5EpFq8tX/taking-ideas-seriously-is-hard |
# Aim to explain, not persuade
I love Less Wrong's Frontpage comment guidelines. I especially love the first guideline "Aim to explain, not persuade". The guideline averts arguments, improves my persuasiveness and enhances my intellectual triage.
# Intellectual Triage
It is easy to tell if a field is garbage when yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RkmSn7rdhJs6kzu67/aim-to-explain-not-persuade |
# "Inner Alignment Failures" Which Are Actually Outer Alignment Failures
*If you don’t know what “inner” and “outer” optimization are, or why birth control or masturbation might be examples, then* [*check out one of the posts here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/inner-alignment) *before reading this one. Thanks to Eva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HYERofGZE6j9Tuigi/inner-alignment-failures-which-are-actually-outer-alignment |
# Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.
## Highlights
- Facebook's Forecast now out of [out of beta](https://npe.fb.com/2020/10/01/forecast-update-making-forecast-available-to-everyone/).
- British Minister and experts give [probabilistic predictions](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wh6D9ypebzdNT26zj/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020 |
# Notes on Compassion
This post examines the virtue of **compassion**. I synthesize what others have learned, more than giving my own opinions, though I selected what I found interesting or credible according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn. I hope it helps peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4pBZQ6XeAbwYwxvEM/notes-on-compassion |
# What is the right phrase for "theoretical evidence"?
I mean "theoretical evidence" as something that is in contrast to empirical evidence. Alternative phrases include "inside view evidence" and "gears-level evidence".
I personally really like the phrase "gears-level evidence". What I'm trying to refer to is somethi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvdLxjwuMsbPt6h3z/what-is-the-right-phrase-for-theoretical-evidence |
# Automated intelligence is not AI
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
Sometimes we think of ‘artificial intelligence’ as whatever technology ultimately automates human cognitive labor.
I question this equivalence, looking at past automation. In practice... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q6Q6YwxaAbF8TMaxT/automated-intelligence-is-not-ai |
# Should students be allowed to give good teachers a bonus?
Alice is a STEM student taking general chemistry, linear algebra, and intro to computer programming. At the end of her term, the school emails her an online form with a link to her Student-Allocated Bonus.
For taking three classes, Alice gets 3 points. She c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5heuKNvcc7fYwLtei/should-students-be-allowed-to-give-good-teachers-a-bonus |
# Non Polemic: How do you personally deal with "irrational" people?
I'm finally managing to finish my "basic" training in rationality, which is to mean finish studying "Rationality: A-Z" (I had studied the first half years ago, but I foolishly stopped when I got to the part about reductionism, which was unbelievably s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BYziMbEyF4kSqJuCs/non-polemic-how-do-you-personally-deal-with-irrational |
# Generalize Kelly to Account for # Iterations?
On my post [weird things about money](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H2mPGJYWjrLM7rYXW/weird-things-about-money), Bunthut [made the following comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H2mPGJYWjrLM7rYXW/weird-things-about-money?commentId=gf2iQTZkW3Sja5P2t):
> I think the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MNHGHos7jfEXqgopN/generalize-kelly-to-account-for-iterations |
# What Belongs in my Glossary?
I've been working on a Glossary that will give short descriptions of concepts I've introduced, so people don't have to seek out entire posts to grok what they mean in context and then decide later if they'd like to know more. So far I've got Asymmetric Justice, The Delenda Est Club, Doom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ubXpW5aNnCsGzH2r2/what-belongs-in-my-glossary |
# Kelly Bet or Update?
I suggest augmenting the classic "bet or update" with "*Kelly* bet or update".
*Epistemic status: feels like maybe going too far, but worth considering?*
* * *
On the one hand, we have a line of thinking in rationalist discourse which says *probability is willingness to bet*. This line of thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NuyLTCD6v5nayenr4/kelly-bet-or-update |
# Location Discussion Takeaways
It's been a month and a half since I posted [The rationalist community's location problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FghubkDy6Dp6mnxk7/the-rationalist-community-s-location-problem), and there's been a ton of good discussion both in the comments and elsewhere. In this post I hope t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3FyT3Gvst8pFX7gE/location-discussion-takeaways |
# Confucianism in AI Alignment
*I hear there’s a thing where people write a lot in November, so I’m going to try writing a blog post every day. Disclaimer: this post is less polished than my median. And my median post isn’t very polished to begin with.*
Imagine a large corporation - we’ll call it BigCo. BigCo knows t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aDeaJzxinoGNWNpC/confucianism-in-ai-alignment |
# Subagents of Cartesian Frames
Here, we introduce and discuss the concept of a subagent in the [Cartesian Frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) paradigm.
Note that in this post, as in much of the sequence, we are generally working up to [biextensional equivalence... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nwrkwTd6uKBesYYfx/subagents-of-cartesian-frames |
# Notes on Industriousness
This post examines the virtue of **industry** (a.k.a. “assiduity,” “enterprise,” “industriousness,” or “[productivity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j3QDAqSQFi4BpHxQK/a-guide-for-productivity-2)”). It explores what others have learned about this virtue, more than my own opinions about it, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sbPEZR3Rs5WrzWTs6/notes-on-industriousness |
# Bucket Brigade Singing
For the past several months, some friends and I have been working on a project for singing together over the internet ( [previously](https://www.jefftk.com/p/effect-of-numpy), [previously](https://www.jefftk.com/p/evaluating-opus), [originally](https://www.jefftk.com/p/series-singing)). It's s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Ac9Ayg48dkv6c24d/bucket-brigade-singing |
# Three more stories about causation
**I**
Imagine Bob's graph of health over time is sin(t) and his graph of exercise is cos(t), with negative values corresponding to being a couch potato. At first glance, health and exercise have nothing to do with each other, since their correlation is zero. At second glance, ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6qk2s3h4BMxaiM64/three-more-stories-about-causation |
# When Money Is Abundant, Knowledge Is The Real Wealth
First Puzzle Piece
------------------
By and large, the President of the United States can order people to do things, and they will do those things. POTUS is often considered the most powerful person in the world. And yet, the president cannot order a virus to st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wEebEiPpEwjYvnyqq/when-money-is-abundant-knowledge-is-the-real-wealth |
# Multiplicative Operations on Cartesian Frames
This is the seventh post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence.
Here, we introduce three new binary operations on Cartesian frames, and discuss their properties.
1\. Tensor
----------
Our... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/srTD8DgTCR27udzoe/multiplicative-operations-on-cartesian-frames |
# Open & Welcome Thread – November 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xMrTa9aNeXhf3T4x3/open-and-welcome-thread-november-2020 |
# Where do (did?) stable, cooperative institutions come from?
The United States has a bunch of nice things whose creation/maintenance requires coordinated effort from a large number of people across time. For example: bridges that stay up; electrical grids that provide us with power; the rule of law; newspapers that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R4FX6wDmppvZ2JqpB/where-do-did-stable-cooperative-institutions-come-from |
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