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# Share your personal stories of prediction markets
Last nights prediction markets on the election were heavily traded relative to past PMs. Predictit alone had hundreds of millions of USD in trade volume. Many LWers competed on the markets, for reasons discussed [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y8RWtNBiksbSzm9j... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TM3d58sfW52yDk5Tk/share-your-personal-stories-of-prediction-markets |
# Don't read news
A lot of people have written about the toxicity of news. This idea, that reading news is something to be avoided, might not be new to you. But today might be a great day for a reminder. I needed a reminder, because I'm tempted... very temped.
I could make the case again, that avoiding news is the th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jmGCrJh7P35WfaKHN/don-t-read-news |
# [AN #124]: Provably safe exploration through shielding
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TJqfcEyDdLwkDxZZC/an-124-provably-safe-exploration-through-shielding |
# Gifts Which Money Cannot Buy
From a pure consumption perspective, the basic problem of gift-giving is that you usually know what you want better than I know what you want. If we both buy each other $20 gifts, then we’ll probably end up with things we want less than whatever we would have bought ourselves for $20. Th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2cmbdYnQoWdjGb9o3/gifts-which-money-cannot-buy |
# Multiple Worlds, One Universal Wave Function
The following post is an adaptation of [a paper I wrote in 2017](http://evhub.github.io/papers/everett.pdf) that I thought might be of interest to people here on LessWrong. The paper is essentially my attempt at presenting the clearest and most cogent defense of the Evere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2D9s6kpegDQtrueBE/multiple-worlds-one-universal-wave-function |
# Being Productive With Chronic Health Conditions
*This post appeared first on the* [*EA Coaching blog*](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2020/10/31/being-productive-with-chronic-health-conditions)*.*
A fair number of clients who suffer from chronic health problems come though my metaphorical door. Per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LPbFoQ2AbNeLyzJmu/being-productive-with-chronic-health-conditions |
# Babble Challenge: 50 thoughts on stable, cooperative institutions
In [a recent LessWrong question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R4FX6wDmppvZ2JqpB/where-do-did-stable-cooperative-institutions-come-from#pzGzA6qb33cAkPMM3) Anna Salamon asks “Where did stable, cooperative institutions come from (like bridges that sta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ra79kehLHm64kMst7/babble-challenge-50-thoughts-on-stable-cooperative |
# Covid 11/5: Don’t Mention the War
Mutation has always been an elephant in the Covid-19 room, and I haven’t paid as much attention to it as I should have. It is increasingly clear the Covid-19 has mutated, and the new strain is substantially more infectious than the old one and now virtually the only strain. One writ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Me7sDZnXgB5j4uRXL/covid-11-5-don-t-mention-the-war |
# Defining capability and alignment in gradient descent
This is the first post in a series where I'll explore AI alignment in a simplified setting: a neural network that's being trained by gradient descent. I'm choosing this setting because it involves a well-defined optimization process that has enough complexity to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xg2YycEfCnLYrCcjy/defining-capability-and-alignment-in-gradient-descent |
# Sub-Sums and Sub-Tensors
This is the eighth post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence. Here, we define new versions of the [sum](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ewkYgtZapQRtDPT2F/additive-operations-on-cartesian-frames#3__Sums_of_Carte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LAHXvi4qwXogmdTHd/sub-sums-and-sub-tensors-1 |
# Generalized Heat Engine
I’d like to be able to apply more of the tools of statistical mechanics and thermodynamics outside the context of physics. For some pieces, that’s pretty straightforward - a large chunk of statistical mechanics is just information theory, and that’s already a flourishing standalone field whic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKWXktrR7KpbgZAs4/generalized-heat-engine |
# What considerations influence whether I have more influence over short or long timelines?
As my timelines have been shortening, I've been rethinking my priorities. As have many of my colleagues. It occurs to us that there are probably general considerations that should cause us to weight towards short-timelines plan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTK2cDnXBB5tpoP74/what-considerations-influence-whether-i-have-more-influence |
# Impostor Syndrome as skill/dominance mismatch
I am surprised that there is nothing about Impostor Syndrome on Robin Hanson's website, when to me it seems obviously connected to status. To use the standard formula: Impostor Syndrome *is not about* lack of skills.
(Also related to: humility, [status regulation](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Eo4dAtoMQzuuNJQfF/impostor-syndrome-as-skill-dominance-mismatch |
# Sunday, Nov 8: Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms
For this Sunday's LW Online Meetup, I'll be will be leading an exercise on *Mindful Puzzle Solving,* derived from the [*Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms*](http://bewelltuned.com/tune_your_cognitive_strategies) exercise on [bewelltuned.com](http://bewelltuned.com/).
T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WzhHE7jJJ2cbKtXBw/sunday-nov-8-tuning-your-cognitive-algorithms |
# "model scores" is a questionable concept
A couple of years ago, while I was working on a problem of what to do with the predictions of a random forest model, I noticed that the mean of the predictions on the test set didn't match the mean of the outcomes in the training data. Let me make that more concrete; consider... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cju4wPhDETynyzCn8/model-scores-is-a-questionable-concept |
# Additive and Multiplicative Subagents
This is the ninth post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence. Here, we refine our notion of subagent into additive and multiplicative subagents. As usual, we will give many equivalent definitions.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxbjEgjNTSbdXqDFE/additive-and-multiplicative-subagents |
# Teach People to Recognize the Sound of Covid?
Yesterday I read Zvi's [11/5 Covid update](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/11/05/covid-11-5-dont-mention-the-war/) which had:
> Researchers claim to have [a machine learning system that can diagnose Covid-19 over the phone](https://www.embs.org/ojemb/articles/covid-19... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nSh76M3pCnxs9ZQxM/teach-people-to-recognize-the-sound-of-covid |
# Generalized Heat Engine II: Thermodynamic Efficiency Limit
This post continues where the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uKWXktrR7KpbgZAs4/generalized-heat-engine) left off.
Recap from previous post: we have two sets of IID coins. One set is the “hot pool”, $X^H$, in which each coin has probability ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKiRX5oXHcYzQNSGw/generalized-heat-engine-ii-thermodynamic-efficiency-limit |
# A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall
Suppose you were to reach into the mirror universe, where everything is inverted, and pull out a book that is the exact opposite of [Robert Gordon’s *The Rise and Fall of American Growth*](https://rootsofprogress.org/summary-the-rise-and-fall-of-american-growth).... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ck5cgNS2Eozc8mBeJ/a-review-of-where-is-my-flying-car-by-j-storrs-hall |
# The Power & Tragedy of Names
*“To change this rock into a jewel, you must change its name”*
\- **Ursula K. Le Guin, A Wizard of Earthsea**
*TLDR: names (and labels more generally) have an outsized influence on the public perception of the movements they are applied to. This encourages individuals to overuse and m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e5YXZeyeM3sdN6LJe/the-power-and-tragedy-of-names |
# Does SGD Produce Deceptive Alignment?
[Deceptive alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zthDPAjh9w6Ytbeks/deceptive-alignment) was first introduced in [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB), which contained initial versions of the arguments discussed here. Additional arg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ocWqg2Pf2br4jMmKA/does-sgd-produce-deceptive-alignment |
# Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction
A number of people have claimed that a full-scale nuclear war is likely to cause human extinction. I have investigated this issue in depth and concluded that even a full scale nuclear exchange is unlikely (<1%) to cause human extinction.
By a full-scale war, I mean... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-war-is-unlikely-to-cause-human-extinction |
# the scaling “inconsistency”: openAI’s new insight
I’ve now read the new [OpenAI scaling laws paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf). Also, yesterday I attended a fun and informative lecture/discussion with one of the authors.
While the topic is on my mind, I should probably jot down some of my thoughts.
Thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diutNaWF669WgEt3v/the-scaling-inconsistency-openai-s-new-insight |
# Why philosophy of science?
During my last few years working as an AI researcher, I increasingly came to appreciate the distinction between what makes *science* successful and what makes *scientists* successful. Science works because it has distinct standards for what types of evidence it accepts, with empirical data... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bx96HQC8jdpLpLDTz/why-philosophy-of-science |
# How can I bet on short timelines?
I currently have something like 50% chance that the [point of no return](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPan54R525D68NoEt/the-date-of-ai-takeover-is-not-the-day-the-ai-takes-over) will happen by 2030. Moreover, it seems to me that there's [a wager for short timelines](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4FhiSuNv4QbtKDzL8/how-can-i-bet-on-short-timelines |
# Somerville Mask Usage II
A little over four months ago I [collected some data on how often people were wearing masks](https://www.jefftk.com/p/somerville-mask-usage). Somerville still requires masks, cases are up, there is now a [state-wide order](https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-order-55/download), and I again fou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ubQhB5pyCJ5WPGYKG/somerville-mask-usage-ii |
# Three Open Problems in Aging
Aging, like many parts of biology, has a surplus of excellent experimentalists but a shortage of good modeling/analysis/theory. LessWrong and the adjacent community have a surplus of people with great modelling/analysis skills, many with an outsider’s interest in aging, so this post outl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zDCM2PkdP2R9JkW6v/three-open-problems-in-aging |
# Frequentist practice incorporates prior information all the time
I thought that the frequentist view was that you should not incorporate prior information. But looking around, this doesn't seem true in practice. It's common with the data scientists and analysts I've worked with to view probability fundamentally in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xe74qgWEuZFkFH2WB/frequentist-practice-incorporates-prior-information-all-the |
# Sunday 8th 2pm PT: Scott Garrabrant's Office Hours / Cartesian Frames
Sunday Nov 8th at 2pm, Scott Garrabrant will be in his Walled Garden office at 2pm to host discussion and questions about Cartesian Frames. There won't be a formal lecture, but stop by to chat, ask questions or explore related ideas.
You can find... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zh3fPf4YMrc72bSm3/sunday-8th-2pm-pt-scott-garrabrant-s-office-hours-cartesian |
# Scoring 2020 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions
I was curious to see how various prognosticators—specifically, [_FiveThirtyEight_](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) and [_The Economist_](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president)'s models, and the [PredictIt prediction... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/muEjyyYbSMx23e2ga/scoring-2020-u-s-presidential-election-predictions |
# Is corruption a valuable antidote to overregulation?
When reading Robert Caro's book about Robert Moses there's a part of my that things that I'm glad that the city in which I'm living is less corrupt then New York was when Robert Moses was active.
On the other hand Robert Moses got things done and build a lot of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QaEH9cAqjqxrGLvBK/is-corruption-a-valuable-antidote-to-overregulation |
# Cartesian Frames Definitions
This is a list of the main definitions from Scott Garrabrant's [Cartesian Frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/2A7rrZ4ySx6R8mfoT) sequence. (I'll update it as more posts come out.)
1\. Small Cartesian Frames
--------------------------
Let $W=\{w_0, w_1\}$ for the matrix visualizations b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kLLu387fiwbis3otQ/cartesian-frames-definitions |
# Two reasons to expect a peaceful change of power in the US
# Motivation
Several commenters have argued that a Trump might attempt, or even succeed, at remaining in power despite his electoral defeat this year. Here are soem example articles
[The Nation](https://www.thenation.com/article/society/trump-coup-electio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vo86GizMRunjuKtJu/two-reasons-to-expect-a-peaceful-change-of-power-in-the-us |
# When Hindsight Isn't 20/20: Incentive Design With Imperfect Credit Allocation
A crew of pirates all keep their gold in one very secure chest, with labelled sections for each pirate. Unfortunately, one day a storm hits the ship, tossing everything about. After the storm clears, the gold in the chest is all mixed up. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XPRAY34Sutc2wWYZf/when-hindsight-isn-t-20-20-incentive-design-with-imperfect |
# Notes on Temperance
This post examines the virtue of **temperance**, drawing mostly from others' insights rather than from my personal views, though I’ve selected material based on what I find credible and interesting. I write as a student of the virtue rather than an expert. I hope to help readers understand temper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aQQ69PijQR2Z64m2z/notes-on-temperance |
# Competitive Universal Basic Services?
Providing basic services should often be more efficient than basic income. The state can use its centralized negotiating power to get lower prices on standardized packages, and accordingly a floor for welfare could be provided at a lower cost than just redistributing income, whi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J6LfwYdpxqge9N2kZ/competitive-universal-basic-services |
# Why You Should Care About Goal-Directedness
**Introduction**
================
[Deconfusing](https://intelligence.org/2018/11/22/2018-update-our-new-research-directions/#section2) goal-directedness would boost your favorite research approach for solving AI Alignment.
Why? Because every approach I know of stands to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q9BmNh35xgXPRgJhm/why-you-should-care-about-goal-directedness |
# Costs and benefits of metaphysics
Prelude for LW
--------------
* Section 2 contains a bunch of self-references to personal articles, all of which are the kind I also posted on less wrong before but considering the amount of self-referncing this article might come out as a bit douchy. If you hate that kind of thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dat5Ma4XF2LomPau8/costs-and-benefits-of-metaphysics |
# Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
This post outlines some incentive problems with forecasting tournaments, such as Good Judgement Open, CSET, or Metaculus. These incentive problems may be problematic not only because unhinged actors might exploit them, but also because of mechanisms such as t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions |
# Building AGI Using Language Models
> Despite the buzz around GPT-3, it is, in and of itself, not AGI. In many ways, this makes it similar to AlphaGo or Deep Blue; while approaching human abiliy in one domain (playing Chess/Go, or writing *really* impressively), it doesn’t really seem like it will do Scary AGI Things... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/no9ftcYzcMLo8Zwj4/building-agi-using-language-models |
# Time Travel Markets for Intellectual Accounting
In a [comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4SsFMGaBx59wBA3Ej/can-we-hold-intellectuals-to-similar-public-standards-as?commentId=yCRoT7XM8Z4LiQFSC) to [Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4SsFMGaBx59wBA... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DonsyZjFMgsXnZAFX/time-travel-markets-for-intellectual-accounting |
# Committing, Assuming, Externalizing, and Internalizing
This is the tenth post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence.
Here, we define a bunch of ways to construct new (additive/multiplicative) (sub/super)-(agents/environments) from a gi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5HMqSGQ9ad9r9Hibw/committing-assuming-externalizing-and-internalizing |
# Open Problems Create Paradigms
A few weeks ago I had a fascinating conversation with [Ruby](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ruby) about models of the research process and how to improve it. This post outlines one particular model which I took away from that conversation: open problems as the primary factor which cre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whXFkYEDiDk8tSBqH/open-problems-create-paradigms |
# Clarifying inner alignment terminology
I have seen [a lot of](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HYERofGZE6j9Tuigi/inner-alignment-failures-which-are-actually-outer-alignment) [confusion recently](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Xg2YycEfCnLYrCcjy/defining-capability-and-alignment-in-gradient-descent) surround... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology |
# Notes on Self-Control
This post examines the virtue of **self-control**. I mostly summarize what others have learned about this virtue, rather than expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/53b9woahSTPQFtB2i/notes-on-self-control |
# Automating reasoning about the future at Ought
Ought’s [mission](https://ought.org/mission) is to automate and scale open-ended reasoning. Since wrapping up [factored evaluation experiments](https://ought.org/updates/2020-01-11-arguments) at the end of 2019, Ought has built [Elicit](http://elicit.org/) to automate t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e2FjFC2LjKWKSycpu/automating-reasoning-about-the-future-at-ought |
# The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine
A covid vaccine has demonstrated 90% efficacy and no significant safety concerns in preliminary data from Phase 3 trials, according to an [announcement today from Pfizer and BioNTech SE](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-annou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M6PuouDu7D3jjWtA7/the-300-year-journey-to-the-covid-vaccine |
# Modeling humans: what's the point?
I
=
The most predictively powerful description of a human is the microphysical one. On this level of description there are no wants, beliefs, or values, just a bunch of atoms evolving according to physical law. Also, this model is useless to me.
Many people (myself included) want... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XdkMy4GWHmf4BW43T/modeling-humans-what-s-the-point |
# Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones?
***Scholarship Status:***
*I'm not an expert in the social sciences. I've taken a few in-person and online courses and read several books, but I’m very much speculating here. I also haven’t done much investigation fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vCQpJLNFpDdHyikFy/are-the-social-sciences-challenging-because-of-fundamental |
# Tweet markets for impersonal truth tracking?
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
Should social media label statements as false, misleading or contested?
Let’s approach it from the perspective of what would make the world best, rather than e.g. what rig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTE6Ab6eWCj92etmy/tweet-markets-for-impersonal-truth-tracking |
# Does BioNtech's vaccine result of 90% disease prevention mean that 90% of the vaccinated can't pass the virus to other people?
From reading the news it's not clear to me whether some of those people who receive the vaccine and are in the 90% where it works will be asymptomatic but still infectious. Does anybody kno... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qLRt84y7dStNkCMov/does-biontech-s-vaccine-result-of-90-disease-prevention-mean |
# Why I’m Writing A Book
_This article was originally published on SamoBurja.com. You can_ [_access the original here._](http://samoburja.com/why-im-writing-a-book/)
For over a decade, I have dedicated myself to the deep study of society. As... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YsQTYwAMeDR3jk4Yg/why-i-m-writing-a-book |
# Did anybody calculate the Briers score for per-state election forecasts?
There's a lot of debate about how good the polls and 538 have been is this election in comparison to the betting markets. While it's hard to compare it when just looking at percentage for Biden winning, it would be possible to calculate the Bri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uLeaHdEkZybqMHzZi/did-anybody-calculate-the-briers-score-for-per-state |
# What Would Advanced Social Technology Look Like?
I’m looking for pure sci-fi speculation here. (Though preferably on the “hard” end of the [Mohs scale of sci-fi hardness](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/MohsScaleOfScienceFictionHardness).) Feel free to babble. Maybe try to [come up with 50 ideas](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w4kbvQjPy6HEKFNdA/what-would-advanced-social-technology-look-like |
# Probability vs Likelihood
This expands on some issues I mentioned in [Radical Probabilism](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJyY5QkQvNJpZLJRo/radical-probabilism-1).
* * *
A rationality pet-nitpick of mine, which is shared by *almost no one,* is the probable/likely distinction. I got my introduction to Bayesian thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vMBpZtoRw4ia2JrK/probability-vs-likelihood |
# Eight Definitions of Observability
This is the eleventh post in the [Cartesian frames](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) sequence. Here, we compare eight equivalent definitions of observables, which emphasize different philosophical interpretations.
Throughout this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5R9dRqTREZriN9iL7/eight-definitions-of-observability |
# The Darwin Game - Rounds 1 to 2
Edit 2020-11-13. This unofficial version of the game is missing `AbstractSpyTreeBot`.
# Rounds 1-2
MeasureBot and EarlyBirdMimicBot shoot to the top of the populations. Not coinc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BsSdEPMAZz3f3Zhu5/the-darwin-game-rounds-1-to-2 |
# Yes to Feature Requests, No to Entitlement
In [No Free Features](https://landshark.io/2020/11/09/no-free-features.html), Alan Gibson writes:
> I look forward to a day when asking anyone to do unpaid labor is considered unethical by our industry. That goes for feature requests on open source projects, on unpaid inte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uzPdt3kwz7gsndkcW/yes-to-feature-requests-no-to-entitlement |
# Ongoing free money at PredictIt
Previously on LW
================
* [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmqBtCCnMZmpXP2bE/what-are-good-election-betting-opportunities?commentId=NFdSk5H39omYXPjBS,-](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmqBtCCnMZmpXP2bE/what-are-good-election-betting-opportunities?commentId=NFdSk5H39omYXP... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DeAxrHjTWJzpv32fx/ongoing-free-money-at-predictit |
# Michael Vassar at the SlateStarCodex Online Meetup
Michael Vassar will speak on "Why Do We Call Ourselves Rationalists?"
Please register [here]( https://forms.gle/5k1bQR5fQdNaZTNG7 ) and we will send you an invitation.
The event begins Nov. 22, 2020 at 20:30 Israel Standard Time, 10:30 Pacific Standard time, 18:3... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWWjq5BioRkjxxNKq/michael-vassar-at-the-slatestarcodex-online-meetup |
# What could one do with truly unlimited computational power?
**One day, you find an unmarked cardboard box sitting on your front porch.**
On top of the box is a single note:
“Open me.”
You take the box inside and open it, to find what appears to be a small black laptop nestled between old newspaper clippings. Ther... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f2ivgmjjPyjhhCe5J/what-could-one-do-with-truly-unlimited-computational-power |
# The (Unofficial) Less Wrong Comment Challenge
Feedback is important. It's true in Machine Learning, and it's true in writing. So when you write a cool new post on LW, you generally hope for feedback. Positive feedback, fingers crossed, but good negative feedback is also very nice for improving your writing chops and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6yJtSKLiLLXP34SA/the-unofficial-less-wrong-comment-challenge |
# Why those who care about catastrophic and existential risk should care about autonomous weapons
*(crossposted to EA forum [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oR9tLNRSAep293rr5/why-those-who-care-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risk-2).)*
Although I have not seen the argument made in any detail or i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Btrmh6T62tB4g9RMc/why-those-who-care-about-catastrophic-and-existential-risk |
# [AN #125]: Neural network scaling laws across multiple modalities
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XPqMbtpbku8aN55wd/an-125-neural-network-scaling-laws-across-multiple |
# Time in Cartesian Frames
This is the twelfth and final post in the Cartesian Frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
Up until now, we have (in the examples) mostly considered agents making a single choice, rather than acting re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JTzLjARpevuNpGPZm/time-in-cartesian-frames |
# CHAI Internship Application
Hi everyone,
I'm the Assistant Director at [CHAI](https://humancompatible.ai/) and as some of you may know, CHAI is currently accepting applications for our 2021 internship program.
Early deadline is 11/23 for applicants who require an earlier response from us. Our normal deadline is 12... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TgENS48GLJfei7FJu/chai-internship-application |
# Learning Normativity: A Research Agenda
*(Related to* [*Inaccessible Information*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/ZyWyAJbedvEgRT2uF/inaccessible-information)*,* [*Learning the Prior*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SL9mKhgdmDKXmxwE4/learning-the-prior)*, and* [*Better Priors as a Safety Problem*](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s/learning-normativity-a-research-agenda |
# [Link] Digital Democracy Is Within Reach
EPISODE SUMMARY
Imagine a world where every country has a digital minister and technologically-enabled legislative bodies. Votes are completely transparent and audio and video of all conversations between lawmakers and lobbyists are available to the public immediately. Consp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jW3hzvX5Q5X4ZXyd/link-digital-democracy-is-within-reach |
# A Correspondence Theorem in the Maximum Entropy Framework
Classical mechanics didn't work any less well once we discovered quantum, Galilean relativity and Newtonian gravity didn't work any less well once we discovered special and general relativity, etc. This is the [correspondence principle](https://plato.stanford... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XMGWdfTC7XjgTz3X7/a-correspondence-theorem-in-the-maximum-entropy-framework |
# Any work on honeypots (to detect treacherous turn attempts)?
I know the idea of making a "honeypot" to detect when an AI system would attempt a treacherous turn if given the opportunity has been discussed (e.g. IIRC, in Superintelligence). But is there anyone actually working on this? Or any work that's been publi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mY7aZSXHpehrfwKn5/any-work-on-honeypots-to-detect-treacherous-turn-attempts |
# What are Examples of Great Distillers?
A distiller (name based on [https://distill.pub/](https://distill.pub/)) is a writer who can explain a complex topic, one with a lot of [research debt](https://distill.pub/2017/research-debt/), so that knowledgeable undergraduates in the subject can get a good intuition and pic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yucwWReawbfXWoask/what-are-examples-of-great-distillers |
# Covid 11/12: The Winds of Winter
_Spoiler Alert below the fold, can’t be helped._
We have perhaps the best possible news. [Pfizer’s vaccine is over 90% effective, and they are going to ask for emergency use authorization in a few weeks](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L4dWWjYPXxm64p2oA/covid-11-12-the-winds-of-winter |
# Tips on organizing online meetups
I have been co-organizing the [SlateStarCodex online meetup series](https://joshuafox.com/ssc-online-meetups/) with ~40-140 participants in each meetup. We've experimented to get it to work smoothly and have some tips.
This advice is for meetups which have a talk and QA and post-ta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xRhdZbMbhrYQeqjWE/tips-on-organizing-online-meetups |
# Communication Prior as Alignment Strategy
Alice has one of three objects:
* A red triangle
* A blue square
* A red circle
She wants Bob to learn which object she has. However, Alice may only send one of three messages:
* “My object is round”
* “My object is red”
* “This is not a pipe”
The rules of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAvhvGa6ToieNGuy2/communication-prior-as-alignment-strategy |
# Final Babble Challenge (for now): 100 ways to light a candle
It is time. The final challenge in the 7-week babble challenge series.
Let’s [become stronger](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger). Let’s go out with a bang.
On the table in front of you is a can... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H4osJjCGzo9LjLXa2/final-babble-challenge-for-now-100-ways-to-light-a-candle |
# Notes on Respect-for-Others
This post examines the virtue of **respect-for-others**. It explores what other people have learned about this virtue more than my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JwpmYpM3PYQ7iT6LJ/notes-on-respect-for-others |
# Sunday November 15th, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Abram Demski, Daniel Kokotajlo and (maybe) more!
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see [here](https://www.lessestwrong.com/tag/lesswrong-events) for previous weeks' transcripts). Again fully in Gath... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MhypSEukvh8ksZWzj/sunday-november-15th-12-00pm-pt-talks-by-abram-demski-daniel |
# Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
AI related disasters are often categorized as involving misaligned AI, or misuse, or accident. Where:
* misuse means the bad outcomes were wanted by the people in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AomSXpFcqmgeDyWWo/misalignment-and-misuse-whose-values-are-manifest |
# Reading/listening list for the US failing or other significant shifts?
I have a tentative hypothesis that the US is quite precarious. Although I believe we have likely avoided the worst outcomes this year, I think the next 10-30 yrs have some reasonable chance of going very badly. I don't know what that means, nor w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cs5pWDQPgwd2ZCxMo/reading-listening-list-for-the-us-failing-or-other |
# Information Charts
*Edit 2020/12/13: I think a lot of people have misunderstood my intent with this post. I talk about the 2020 election because it seemed like the perfect example to illustrate the point, but it was still only an example. The goal of this post is to establish a philosophically sound ground truth for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mTHKTMgNYRmLopNu/information-charts |
# Interest survey: Forming an MIT Mystery Hunt team (Jan. 15-18, 2021)
The upcoming [MIT Mystery Hunt](http://web.mit.edu/puzzle/www/) will be all-remote, which presents an opportunity to form a widely distributed team for the LW/SSC community. The Mystery Hunt can be a lot of fun and is a great exercise in solving ch... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNTabF6vQjeDeSar7/interest-survey-forming-an-mit-mystery-hunt-team-jan-15-18 |
# How to get the benefits of moving without moving (babble)
If you've been [following](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FghubkDy6Dp6mnxk7/the-rationalist-community-s-location-problem) [along](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i3FyT3Gvst8pFX7gE/location-discussion-takeaways) with the location discussion (you probably have... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ACxXvTBbwjWDWLxfY/how-to-get-the-benefits-of-moving-without-moving-babble |
# A Self-Embedded Probabilistic Model
One possibly-confusing point from the [Embedded Agents](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/embedded-agency) sequence: it’s actually not difficult to write down a self-embedded world model. Just as lazy data structures can represent infinite sequences in finite space, a lazily-evaluated... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SN8wFZsZiyBygc27k/a-self-embedded-probabilistic-model |
# The Darwin Game - Rounds 3 to 9
Edit: This unofficial version of the game is missing AbstractSpyTreeBot.
# Rounds 3-9
MeasureBot maintains its lead. SimplePatternFinderBot takes second place.
Deep dive into Si... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MHGRZmd6noJNqQxnk/the-darwin-game-rounds-3-to-9 |
# What are some good examples of fake beliefs?
I'm reading through Rationality from AI to Zombies again and just finished the section on [Fake Beliefs](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/7gRSERQZbqTuLX5re). I understand the ideas and now I'm trying to ask myself whether the ideas are useful.
To me, the biggest reason for th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hGRW4EjNe7Nmo5Bqv/what-are-some-good-examples-of-fake-beliefs |
# On Arguments for God
This post is about God, but of course, it isn't really about God, but about a particular pattern in general.
We're pretty much all in agreement that God doesn't exist.
This is correct or at least let's say it is for the purposes of this post. However, this also poses a trap.
Suppose there ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R3agzRSLH5FMisju2/on-arguments-for-god |
# University of Amsterdam (UvA), Master's Artificial Intelligence
This article gives an overview of the master's program in Artificial Intelligence at the University of Amsterdam (UvA). It is meant to be both useful for people who want to decide where to study, as well as for UvA students who want to get information a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qx3xNCpkmJeCeaCSE/university-of-amsterdam-uva-master-s-artificial-intelligence |
# University of Tübingen, Master's Machine Learning
The purpose of this post is to give an overview of the Machine Learning (ML) Master’s program at the University of Tübingen. It should function as guidance for people who are interested in studying ML and weigh the pros and cons.
This article is part of a [series of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9uCr5gKF2fABi3dCj/university-of-tuebingen-master-s-machine-learning |
# European Master's Programs in Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, and related fields
While there is no shortage of detailed information on master’s degrees, we think that there is a lack of perspectives from students that have actually completed the program and experienced the university.
Therefore we decide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aHESQA4xdP6ydefN/european-master-s-programs-in-machine-learning-artificial |
# Specialized Labor and Counterfactual Compensation
I have three purposes in this post. The first is to review the formal game theory found in Robert Ellickson's *Order Without Law*. It's not a large part of the book, but it's the part that I'm most qualified to judge. Not that I'm a formal game theorist myself, but I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5SzBsDjBpnC5LgxL/specialized-labor-and-counterfactual-compensation |
# Stuart Russell at the SlateStarCodex Online Meetup
Professor Stuart Russell will speak briefly on his book "Human Compatible", and then will take questions. The event begins Dec. 6, 2020 at 20:30 Israel Standard Time, 10:30 Pacific Standard time, 18:30 UTC.
Please [register here](https://forms.gle/G4Kk5wSN4VHperyf7... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8KwvuBrKsSMtkWtyf/stuart-russell-at-the-slatestarcodex-online-meetup-1 |
# Signalling & Simulacra
> "We lie all the time, but if everyone knows that we're lying, is a lie really a lie?"
>
> \-\- Moral Mazes
A common Bayesian account of communication analyzes signalling games: games in which there is hidden information, and some actions can serve to communicate that information between pl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NiTW5uNtXTwBsFkd4/signalling-and-simulacra |
# Early Thoughts on Ontology/Grounding Problems
These all seem to be pointing to different aspects of the same problem.
* Cross-ontology goal translation: given a utility function over a latent variable in one model, find an equivalent utility function over latent variables in another model with a different ontolog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/an29DQgYaKbyQprns/early-thoughts-on-ontology-grounding-problems |
# Examples of Measures
I recently started learning measure theory but had a pretty hard time finding real-world examples of the different measures. So this is a list of real-world examples of some different, common measures.
The count measure
-----------------
If I have 4 apples, their count measure is 4. The count ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5nLJ3LNT2Bw6o5FYK/examples-of-measures |
# Beware Experiments Without Evaluation
Sometimes, people propose "experiments" with new norms, policies, etc. that don't have any real means of evaluating whether or not the policy actually succeeded or not.
This should be viewed with deep skepticism -- it often seems to me that such an "experiment" isn't really an ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ahQJ7TKeNAYRBwT6P/beware-experiments-without-evaluation |
# A guide to Iterated Amplification & Debate
This post is about two proposals for aligning AI systems in a scalable way:
* Iterated Distillation and Amplification (often just called 'Iterated Amplification'), or _**IDA**_ for short,[^IDAnames] is a proposal by [Paul](https://paulfchristiano.com/) [Christiano](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhfATmAoJcN8RqGg6/a-guide-to-iterated-amplification-and-debate |
# Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem
**In brief**: in order to iteratively solve problems of unknown difficulty a good heuristic is to double your efforts every time you attempt it.
Imagine you want to solve a problem, such as getting an organization off the ground or solving a rese... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eZCrCB3HiDB55Ccqx/spend-twice-as-much-effort-every-time-you-attempt-to-solve-a |
# Notes on Loyalty
This post examines the virtue of **loyalty**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HCGxHK2ahsTNrNxHp/notes-on-loyalty |
# Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Motivation
----------
There is already a fair amount of interest around Effective Altruism in judgemental forecasting. We think there’s a whole lot of good research left to be done.
The valuable research seems to be all over the place. We could use people to speculate on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize |
# Brigaded Rounds
A group of [round singers](https://constellationpress.com/rounds/) were interested in trying out the [bucket brigade singing program](https://echo.jefftk.com), and I realized that with a small tweak it could support rounds directly. We just needed to write audio both at the place it belonged to, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TpJc6YPg6Jfvk4rxu/brigaded-rounds |
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