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# How Roodman's GWP model translates to TAI timelines
How does [David Roodman’s world GDP model](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) translate to TAI timelines?
Now, before I go any further, let me be the first to say that I don’t think we should use this model to predict TAI. This model ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L23FgmpjsTebqcSZb/how-roodman-s-gwp-model-translates-to-tai-timelines |
# Anatomy of a Gear
*Thankyou to* [*Sisi Cheng*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/sisi-cheng) *(of the* [*Working as Intended*](https://www.instagram.com/workingasintendedcomic/) *comic) for the excellent drawings.*
When modelling a physical gearbox, why do we chunk the system into gears? We’re essentially treating ea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ya8fit4atTWgEiMpP/anatomy-of-a-gear |
# Extortion beats brinksmanship, but the audience matters
**EDIT**: The terms "extortion" and "brinksmanship" used in this post don't fully map onto the real-world uses of the term, but are the closest to the concepts I'm trying to point to.
Extortion, simplified, is:
* "Give me something I want or I'll hurt you (ev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ofx82Y9a4zcETfT6Q/extortion-beats-brinksmanship-but-the-audience-matters |
# Propinquity Cities So Far
*Finding alternatives to war can save a lot of money*
Summary
=======
In any dense city, lots of people will be struggling to occupy the same set of spaces. To function, cities need to have some systematic way of resolving those positioning conflicts, a method for deciding who gets to go ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hTwshHAce4qZHL5zE/propinquity-cities-so-far |
# The Darwin Game - Rounds 10 to 20
MeasureBot maintains its lead.
# Rounds 10-20
# Everything so far
# Toda... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NA6qZeqCbacsubcm9/the-darwin-game-rounds-10-to-20 |
# Notes on Honor
This post examines the virtue of **honor**. I mean to explore what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than to express my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, but a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZfTGX4NeLdkdkiCm7/notes-on-honor |
# Writing to think
There are a lot of things that I want to write blog posts about. I find myself feeling like I have something [useful](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/09/write-to-say-stuff-worth-knowing.html) to say about a topic, and I want to say it. But when I actually sit down to get started, I run into prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SKQmvZMTY6zQf3Ktc/writing-to-think |
# How the Moderna vaccine works, and a note about mRNA vaccines
Epistemic status: Not an expert. Pretty confident I have it right. Incorporated feedback from commenters, and asking for more. List of edits at the end.
What the Moderna vaccine does is it contains a piece of code (RNA) which asks your body to create a p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fHRLLf5xCjSQnRhg2/how-the-moderna-vaccine-works-and-a-note-about-mrna-vaccines |
# Thoughts on Voting Methods
I've been nerd-sniped by voting theory recently. This post is a fairly disorganized set of thoughts.
Condorcet Isn't Utilitarian
===========================
The [condorcet criterion](https://electowiki.org/wiki/Condorcet_criterion) doesn't make very much sense to me. My impression is tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hJukdkuDfbw2fAxi3/thoughts-on-voting-methods |
# Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Introduction
This is a translation of the Chapter 1 of *The Art of War* by Sunzi. No English sources were used. The original text and many of the interpretations herein come from [古诗文网](https://so.gushiwen.org/guwen/book_46653FD803893E4F5B7146187204196D.aspx).
---
> 孙子曰：兵者，国之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nYzPwtbJJFukjESEr/sunzi-s-methods-of-war-introduction |
# Should we postpone AGI until we reach safety?
Should we postpone AGI, until its risks have fallen below a certain level, thereby applying the precautionary principle? And if so, would setting up policy be a promising way to achieve this?
As I argued [here in the comments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPan54R525D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CXaQj85r4LtafCBi8/should-we-postpone-agi-until-we-reach-safety |
# Normativity
Now that I've written [Learning Normativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s/learning-normativity-a-research-agenda), I have some more clarity around the concept of "normativity" I was trying to get at, and want to write about it more directly. Whereas that post was more oriented toward... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCex9F9YptGMpk2sT/normativity |
# The Pointers Problem: Human Values Are A Function Of Humans' Latent Variables
An AI actively trying to figure out what I want might show me snapshots of different possible worlds and ask me to rank them. Of course, I do not have the processing power to examine entire worlds; all I can really do is look at some pictu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gQY6LrTWJNkTv8YJR/the-pointers-problem-human-values-are-a-function-of-humans |
# The ethics of AI for the Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy
I've been tasked by the Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy to write their entry on the ethics of AI.
I'll be starting the literature reviews and similar in the coming weeks. Could you draw my attention to any aspect of AI ethics (including the history ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b4cLtSam97ZhdJGMG/the-ethics-of-ai-for-the-routledge-encyclopedia-of |
# Stuart Russell at the SlateStarCodex Online Meetup
Professor Stuart Russell will speak briefly on his book "Human Compatible", and then will take questions. The event begins Dec. 6, 2020 at 20:30 Israel Standard Time, 10:30 Pacific Standard time, 18:30 UTC.
Please [register here](https://forms.gle/G4Kk5wSN4VHperyf7... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/iHgk6eBCHiCLcwA3H/stuart-russell-at-the-slatestarcodex-online-meetup |
# 2020 Election: Prediction Markets versus Polling/Modeling Assessment and Postmortem
Moderation/Commenting: I tried to minimize it, but this post necessarily involves some politics. See note at end of post for comment norms. I hope for this to be the last post I make that has to say anything about the election.
Prev... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WcHbFLgn3fmFn79mg/2020-election-prediction-markets-versus-polling-modeling |
# Inner Alignment in Salt-Starved Rats
*(**This post is deprecated**. It has some kernels of truth but also lots of mistakes and confusions. You should instead read* [***Incentive Learning vs Dead Sea Salt Experiment (2024)***](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQ4rSTHpHeFcAmhvi/incentive-learning-vs-dead-sea-salt-exper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wcNEXDHowiWkRxDNv/inner-alignment-in-salt-starved-rats |
# Sunzi's《Methods of War》- War
This is a translation of Chapter 2 of *The Art of War* by Sunzi. No English sources were used.
---
> 孙子曰：凡用兵之法，驰车千驷，革车千乘，带甲十万，千里馈粮，内外之费，宾客之用，胶漆之材，车甲之奉，日费千金，然后十万之师举矣。
The ordinary methods of war demand:
- 1,000 teams of 4 horses each,
- 1,000 wagons,
- 100,000 shields,
- provisions to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5qqaZew3pNZKmhmn8/sunzi-s-methods-of-war-war |
# Some AI research areas and their relevance to existential safety
***Followed by:*** [*What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic)*, which provides examples of mul... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvGoYXi2kgnS3vxqb/some-ai-research-areas-and-their-relevance-to-existential-1 |
# How do you evaluate whether a $500 donation to a project that you know well is a good idea?
At [habryka](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/habryka4)'s recent office hours he made the point that it's really hard for a big grand-giving organization like the Long-Term Future Fund (LTFF) to fund certain projects. While go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DyMxyqcWqsbTCA4K3/how-do-you-evaluate-whether-a-usd500-donation-to-a-project |
# Covid 11/19: Don’t Do Stupid Things
There is very good news. We have a second vaccine! Both Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines have now shown 94%+ effectiveness in treating Covid-19. Not to be outdone by Moderna’s report of 94.5% effectiveness, [Pfizer has its final results](https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/13290302... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GHwycd2xc7szG96tg/covid-11-19-don-t-do-stupid-things |
# Notes on Phronesis
This post examines the virtue of **phronesis (“prudence”)**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LSzSFeZpwsJB4Nowu/notes-on-phronesis |
# Simpson's paradox and the tyranny of strata
Simpson's paradox is an example of how the same data can tell different stories. Most people think of this as an odd little curiosity, or perhaps a cautionary tale about the correct way to use data.
You shouldn't see Simpson's paradox like that. Rather than some little qu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGZfFbvJpQStWhLKJ/simpson-s-paradox-and-the-tyranny-of-strata |
# Sunday 22nd: The Coordination Frontier
For this Sunday's LessWrong meetup, I'll be giving a short presentation on some moral/game-theoretic/coordination problems and solutions I've been thinking about, which I would like feedback on.
Three related puzzles:
* Sometimes, people disagree on coordination protocols, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PGPFdEiZDv2KrKwCj/sunday-22nd-the-coordination-frontier |
# Thanksgiving and Covid
It's getting colder and the virus is still spreading. Hundreds of thousands of people are dead. It's 399 years later, and Thanksgiving has changed less than you might have have hoped.
When the English arrived in what is now Massachusetts they found the Wampanoag devastated by smallpox:
> The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jXCJdeXJ8ajQxARTD/thanksgiving-and-covid |
# Hiding Complexity
# 1. The Principle
Suppose you have some difficult cognitive problem you want to solve. What is the difference between (1) making progress on the problem by thinking about it for an hour and (2) solving a well-defined subproblem whose solution is useful for the entire problem?
(Finding a good cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6zbRy3aADCsRmFcgv/hiding-complexity |
# Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency?
_\[epistemic status: speculation\]_
> I'm envisioning that in the future there will also be systems where you can input any conclusion that you want to argue (including moral conclusions) and the target audience, and the system will give you the most convincing a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qKvn7rxP2mzJbKfcA/persuasion-tools-ai-takeover-without-agi-or-agency |
# Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong
Ought and LessWrong are excited to launch an embedded interactive prediction feature. You can now embed binary questions into LessWrong posts and comments. Hover over the widget to see other people’s predictions, and click to add your own.
Try it out
==========
Elicit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2 |
# Why is there a "clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation?
I've noticed something curious about creativity. (Like when doing the [Babble challenges](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H4osJjCGzo9LjLXa2/final-babble-challenge-for-now-100-ways-to-light-a-candle), or just when thinking in general.)
I have a bad idea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/doPxLgKFHLFY2EbBN/why-is-there-a-clogged-drainpipe-effect-in-idea-generation |
# Epistemic Progress
Epistemic Status: *Cautiously optimistic. Much of this work is in crafting and advancing terminology in ways that will hopefully be intuitive and useful. I’m not too attached to the specifics but hope this could be useful for future work in the area.*
**Introduction**
----------------
Strong epi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xF96rk7yZtrjekiqZ/epistemic-progress-1 |
# Working in Virtual Reality: A Review
For the past three days, I started experimenting with working in Virtual Reality. I'm quite impressed. My guess is that it's not good for most people yet, but that 1 to 10% of people reading this would gain a 2 to 20% increase in computer productivity by using a VR working setup.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7gsehrZnvXo2YGiT7/working-in-virtual-reality-a-review |
# The Darwin Game - Rounds 21-500
Rounds 20-30
============
EarlyBirdMimicBot takes the lead off the backs of the Clone Army.
Rounds 30-100
=============
EarlyBirdMimicBot exhausts the clone army before the tr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3vG6Dqv59doeWJqRs/the-darwin-game-rounds-21-500 |
# Zen and Rationality: Skillful Means
*This is post 5/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at skillful means from a rationalist perspective.*
As part of Zen practice, a teacher may use or encourage the use of ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DN39ep8JY4YBv8eXF/zen-and-rationality-skillful-means |
# Predictions made by Mati Roy in early 2020
**Author**: [Mati Roy](https://matiroy.com/) | **Created**: 2020-01-11 | **Updated**: 2020-03-01 (**Adjusted**: 2020-11-07) | **Published**: 2020-11-07
**Quality**: Those are notes I took for my present and future selves; they weren’t taken with the purpose of informing ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2020 |
# AGI Predictions
This post is a collection of key questions that feed into AI timelines and AI safety work where it seems like there is substantial interest or disagreement amongst the LessWrong community.
**You can make a prediction on a question by hovering over the widget and clicking.** You can update your pred... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YMokuZdoY9tEDHjzv/agi-predictions |
# The central limit theorem in terms of convolutions
There are multiple versions of the central limit theorem. One common version says that, as ${n \to \infty}$, the mean of means looks like a Gaussian distribution. People in industry sometimes ignore the "goes to infinity" part, and assume that if $n$ is large, that'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6oPe3oqzdJtrWmduR/the-central-limit-theorem-in-terms-of-convolutions |
# Rationalists from the UK -- what are your thoughts on Dominic Cummings?
Dominic Cummings would I believe be considered at least rationalist-adjacent, and has recently been quite a prominent figure in the news. I'm curious to hear your thoughts both on the situation with him in general and also on how this has affect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wRQn8MDYhnc7oSN2W/rationalists-from-the-uk-what-are-your-thoughts-on-dominic |
# Non-Obstruction: A Simple Concept Motivating Corrigibility
*Thanks to Mathias Bonde, Tiffany Cai, Ryan Carey, Michael Cohen, Joe Collman, Andrew Critch, Abram Demski, Michael Dennis, Thomas Gilbert, Matthew Graves, Koen Holtman, Evan Hubinger, Victoria Krakovna, Amanda Ngo, Rohin Shah, Adam Shimi, Logan Smith, and M... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xts5wm3akbemk4pDa/non-obstruction-a-simple-concept-motivating-corrigibility |
# Demystifying the Second Law of Thermodynamics
(Crossposted from [my personal website](https://erischel.com/demystifying-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics/))
Thermodynamics is really weird. Most people have probably encountered a bad explanation of the basics at some point in school, but probably don't remember more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfXZ45MpbK56Pw2Ct/demystifying-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics |
# Why are young, healthy people eager to take the Covid-19 vaccine?
Clearly a lot of people on LW want to take it ASAP. I strongly don't want that - to the point where I will most likely emigrate if it becomes obligatory in my country. Please help me understand what I'm missing. Here is my understanding:
* As a you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nM564t4xXY3B3nBD8/why-are-young-healthy-people-eager-to-take-the-covid-19 |
# It’s not economically inefficient for a UBI to reduce recipient’s employment
A UBI (e.g. paying every adult American $8k/year) would reduce recipient’s need for money and so may reduce their incentive to work. This is frequently offered as an argument against a UBI (or as an argument for alternative policies like th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/427NWGcQj4WduTfPK/it-s-not-economically-inefficient-for-a-ubi-to-reduce |
# My intellectual influences
Prompted by a friend's question about my reading history, I've been thinking about what shaped the worldview I have today. This has been a productive exercise, which I recommend to others. Although I worry that some of what's written below is post-hoc confabulation, at the very least it's ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k6NkvAcRaKBMAzqEF/my-intellectual-influences |
# Notes on Ambition
This post examines the virtue of **ambition**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X4cDECqTDMMwWsYKd/notes-on-ambition |
# Mark Manson and Evidence-Based Personal Development
Most personal development is notoriously unreliable.
Mark Manson, a popular personal development author, is making an effort to make his advice more scientific. To this end, he has started labelling his blog posts based on their evidence base. He writes that he ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sEbTn73EtRJte8Agz/mark-manson-and-evidence-based-personal-development |
# Retrospective: November 10-day virtual meditation retreat
So yesterday I finished a 10-day virtual meditation retreat taught by [Tucker Peck](https://meditatewithtucker.com/) and [Upasaka Upali](https://upalimeditation.com/).
Several people have asked me what it was like, so here are some highlights.
First, a “vir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mjLi4hyw84iN8KkCt/retrospective-november-10-day-virtual-meditation-retreat |
# Continuing the takeoffs debate
[Here’s an intuitively compelling argument](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tjH8XPxAnr6JRbh7k/hard-takeoff): only a few million years after diverging from chimpanzees, humans became much more capable, at a rate that was very rapid compared with previous progress. This supports the idea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tpn2Fx9daLvj28kes/continuing-the-takeoffs-debate |
# Syntax, semantics, and symbol grounding, simplified
$\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}$
**tl;dr**: *I argue that the [symbol grounding problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbol_grounding_problem) is not an abstract philosophical prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/joPoxBpZjLNx8MKaF/syntax-semantics-and-symbol-grounding-simplified |
# Straight-edge Warning Against Physical Intimacy
I’m someone who doesn’t do drugs or drink alcohol for a variety of reasons, the most important to me being so that I’m as “true to myself” as possible. By that, I mean that I do not want to do actions that I wouldn’t do sober (and might regret or might not identify wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nepLuoZN7Xv6T2RiT/straight-edge-warning-against-physical-intimacy-2 |
# Commentary on AGI Safety from First Principles
My *AGI safety from first principles* report (which is [now online here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ)) was originally circulated as a google doc. Since there was a lot of good discussion in comments on the original document, I thought it would be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oiuZjPfknKsSc5waC/commentary-on-agi-safety-from-first-principles |
# Squiggle: An Overview
Overview
--------
I've spent a fair bit of time over the last several years iterating on a text-based probability distribution editor (the `5 to 10` input editor in Guesstimate and Foretold). Recently I've added some programming language functionality to it, and have decided to refocus it as a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5BWqSzuLbpTSoTc4/squiggle-an-overview |
# Manifesto of the Silent Minority
Yesterday I asked readers the Thiel Question. 40 people responded. I have combined the responses into a single political platform. You can view the raw responses [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bEkroJol4xCPAafrsOaaPz06ZRlYkGz2LPLyaGuY5-c/edit#gid=1272447374).
---
Thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kvxq4Nfxw5i8AyAKm/manifesto-of-the-silent-minority |
# Snyder-Beattie, Sandberg, Drexler & Bonsall (2020): The Timing of Evolutionary Transitions Suggests Intelligent Life Is Rare
Copying over [Anders Sandberg's Twitter summary](https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1331041820516769792.html) of the paper:
> There is life on Earth but this is not evidence for life being co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hgiKrnYB56rEKwWrT/snyder-beattie-sandberg-drexler-and-bonsall-2020-the-timing |
# Critiques of the Agent Foundations agenda?
What are some substantial critiques of the agent foundations research agenda?
Where by agent foundations I am referrring the area of research referred to by Critch in [this post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/hvGoYXi2kgnS3vxqb/some-ai-research-areas-and-their-releva... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jqKmuG7zq2qQLSBT/critiques-of-the-agent-foundations-agenda |
# The next AI winter will be due to energy costs
Summary: We are 3 orders of magnitude from the Landauer limit (calculations per kWh). After that, progress in AI can not come from throwing more compute at known algorithms. Instead, new methods must be develloped. This may cause another *AI winter*, where the rate of p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N7KYWJPmyzB6bJSYT/the-next-ai-winter-will-be-due-to-energy-costs-1 |
# Pain is not the unit of Effort
(Content warning: self-harm, parts of this post may be actively counterproductive for readers with certain mental illnesses or idiosyncrasies.)
> *What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.* ~ Kelly Clarkson.
>
> *No pain, no gain.* ~ Exercise motto.
>
> *The more bitterness you swal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bx3gkHJehRCYZAF3r/pain-is-not-the-unit-of-effort |
# Latest & Greatest Wiki-Tag Updates: Import, Dashboard, and Feed
It's been a little while since we've posted an update about Wiki-Tag \[1\] stuff, but there is now news. Good news, even.
Import of the Old Wiki: *Complete 🎉*
=====================================
It was a large project requiring dozens of hours of p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P5Tmfuk5GsN46SiEf/latest-and-greatest-wiki-tag-updates-import-dashboard-and |
# Transparent Technologies
I cook my own meals because restaurant food is expensive. But there are many activities I would prefer to cheap versions independent of price.
| I Like | I Don't Like |
|------------------|----------------------------|
| bicycles | cars ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JBntSwELyuNdXmkGG/transparent-technologies |
# Evading Mind Control
A couple days ago I surveyed readers for deviant beliefs. The [results](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kvxq4Nfxw5i8AyAKm/manifesto-of-the-silent-minority) were funny, hateful, boring and bonkers. One of the submissions might even be useful.
> If you care a lot about your mind, it is not unreas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XyForpEy8johfb2Ky/evading-mind-control |
# Convolution as smoothing
Convolutions smooth out hard sharp things into nice smooth things. (See [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6oPe3oqzdJtrWmduR/the-central-limit-theorem-in-terms-of-convolutions) for why convolutions are important). Here are some convolutions between various distributions:
 of alkjash. Part 1 is [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7o7GWXtptANvLoi3Y/pain-is-the-unit-of-effort#This_post_is_not_medical_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wGFS2sZhKAihSg6k/success-buys-freedom |
# Squiggle: Technical Overview
This piece is meant to be read after [Squiggle: An Overview](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i5BWqSzuLbpTSoTc4/squiggle-an-overview). It includes technical information I thought best separated out for readers familiar with coding. As such, it's a bit of a grab-bag. It explains the basic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Drs8XNr52Ybqa57v5/squiggle-technical-overview |
# Learning from counterfactuals
Alternate title: *learning from fictional evidence*. I've seen echoes of this idea [elsewhere](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkowF2N9uyYh4DXSe/fictional-evidence-vs-fictional-insight) but couldn't find a description that suits me.
My main idea is: **you can update from your observed*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nNsGB6D3WoSiGoAga/learning-from-counterfactuals |
# The Exploitability/Explainability Frontier
*Epistemic status*: quick insight that seems true in many cases
Your ability to notice that something is wrong trades off against your ability to convince others that said thing is, in fact, wrong. Suppose you discover a way in which the mainstream narrative is wrong in wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/csTWvha4w6edsqeZ9/the-exploitability-explainability-frontier |
# Notes on Benevolence
This post examines the virtue of **benevolence**. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn more. I hope it helps people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
What is benevolence?
--------------------
Benevolence (sometimes “goodness” or “goodwil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zmjqo4tiYHKAns4w5/notes-on-benevolence |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 1
Luna Lovegood walked through the barrier between Platforms Nine and Ten to Platform Nine and Three-Quarters. Luna wondered what happened to Platform Nine and One-Half. Numbers like "three quarters" only appear when you divide an integer in half twice in a row.
Luna ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zb3hWt99i9Fm93KPq/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-1-1 |
# Deconstructing 321 Voting
This is a quick note about an alternate voting system which occurred to me while talking to Scott Garrabrant about [321 voting](https://electowiki.org/wiki/3-2-1_voting).
Above everything else, you should know that 321 voting is very good. It [rates very highly in VSE](http://electionscien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qShCqJp8SGDDa7Jw4/deconstructing-321-voting |
# Matryoshka Faraday Box
This story takes place in a universe created by [Dov Random](https://dov-random.blogspot.com/).
---
The room was buried six kilometers under Mount Olympus. It hovered in a vacuum, suspended above superconducting electromagnets. The whole containment machine was wrapped in a Matryoshka Farada... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iC9tQxxsP3iiLGwJD/matryoshka-faraday-box |
# Covid 11/26: Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving!
Even in a year like this one, we have much to be thankful for. Most of us, even if we get sick, will fully recover. Treatments continue to improve. Given expectations, this week’s numbers were surprisingly good, to the extent that I have theories later to explain why. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ReoTi64Mkud398JjD/covid-11-26-thanksgiving |
# Small Habits Shape Identity: How I became someone who exercises
This morning, I lingered in my bed until late. Despite that, I went for a run. It started okay, but upgraded to great after a few minutes. Running felt good, natural, what I should be doing right now. I even went for a longer path than initially planned... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/edPTAN3orhZ9ux3yS/small-habits-shape-identity-how-i-became-someone-who |
# Notes on Endurance
This post examines the virtue of **endurance**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttFs6sQtmY2WeFqRj/notes-on-endurance |
# Nash Score for Voting Techniques
This is a follow-up to my [thoughts on voting methods](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hJukdkuDfbw2fAxi3/thoughts-on-voting-methods). As I discussed there, I worry that a utilitarian score for voting techniques, called [VSE](http://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/VSE/), doesn't cap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQgQN8aiieKB3mYwE/nash-score-for-voting-techniques |
# Sunday November 29th, 12:00PM (PT) — Andreas Stuhlmüller on Combining GPT-3 and Forecasting
This Sunday Andreas Stuhlmüller from Ought will show some of their recent work on combining GPT-3 text prediction with judgemental forecasting, resulting in an (according to me) impressive set of tools for helping you think t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/WYeDETiebuFN7qEdb/sunday-november-29th-12-00pm-pt-andreas-stuhlmueller-on |
# [AN #126]: Avoiding wireheading by decoupling action feedback from action effects
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ak8a6fbhXbdqH3FgD/an-126-avoiding-wireheading-by-decoupling-action-feedback |
# Final Version Perfected: An Underused Execution Algorithm
**TLDR**
========
* [Final Version Perfected](http://markforster.squarespace.com/blog/2015/5/21/the-final-version-perfected-fvp.html) (FVP) is a highly effective algorithm for deciding which tasks from your To-Do lists to do in what order.
* The design o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfcKYznQ6B9yuxB28/final-version-perfected-an-underused-execution-algorithm |
# Notes on Good Temper
This post examines the virtue of **good temper**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sp2FZeqiwaL2xLdBr/notes-on-good-temper |
# The Mutant Game - Rounds 31 to 90
Rounds 31-50
============
* Silly 2 Bot dies in round 31.
* AbstractSpyTreeBot dies in round 37.
* "Winner against low constant bots" dies in round 46.
The NPCs are dead. Chaos Army is dead. It's a clone world now.
*.*
Some life paths are well mapped out. If you want to be a doctor, there is a straightfo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykPm8QTszgkphRZwv/theory-of-change-as-a-hypothesis-choosing-a-high-impact-path |
# Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?
I was mildly disappointed in the responses to [my last question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4FhiSuNv4QbtKDzL8/how-can-i-bet-on-short-timelines), so I did a bit of thinking and came up with some answers myself. I'm not super happy with them either, and would love fee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kYa4dHP5MDnqmav2w/is-this-a-good-way-to-bet-on-short-timelines |
# Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations
**TLDR**
Submit ideas of “interesting evaluations” in the comments. The best one by December 5th will get $50. All of them will be highly appreciated.
**Motivation**
A few of us (myself, Nuño Sempere, and Ozzie Gooen), have been working recently to better understand how ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/95YoqcTsKymiv3JuK/prize-interesting-examples-of-evaluations |
# DIY Beaterless Drum Pedals
When I first made a board for electronic foot percussion, I played around until I had something that worked. My initial design ( [2013](https://www.jefftk.com/p/electronic-foot-percussion)) and my two later iterations ( [2018](https://www.jefftk.com/p/footboard-v2), [2019](https://www.jeff... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wh8doPrvnRJQAADWA/diy-beaterless-drum-pedals |
# Notes on Humility
This post examines the virtue of **humility**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nFiQ3qH8rj3wam9ZY/notes-on-humility |
# A short talk on SB and friends
Hi there. First post; be kind please.
I'm looking to present a short talk on the Sleeping Beauty problem in our maths/computing group at work. So far, I've just sketched an incomplete outline:
* Start by describing SB and the halfer, thirder & double-halfer arguments. Note that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mrEzazHiSC9tZdbzc/a-short-talk-on-sb-and-friends |
# Book review: WEIRDest People
Book review: The WEIRDest People in the World, by Joseph Henrich.
Wow!
Henrich previously wrote [one of the best books of the last
decade](http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2016/04/13/the-secret-of-our-success/).
Normally, I expect such an author\'s future books to, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kYJ6RvS9zJ3WrGP7o/book-review-weirdest-people |
# The Mutant Game - Rounds 91 to 247
A Very Social Bot contains the following payload:
```
def payload(self) :
# put a personal word here to guarantee no tie during cooperation: myUniqueWord
# put what you want to play for the showdown
# no line after 'def payload(self)' should have less t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBxi6GpvFYPHjooZG/the-mutant-game-rounds-91-to-247 |
# Why did the Ming treasure voyages end in 1433?
When I read sources like Wikipedia on the [Ming treasure voyages](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_treasure_voyages) there doesn't seem to be a clear conclusion about why they ended. Did anybody on LessWrong do deeper research and came to a conclusion? | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGtJ5ZMEfz8Twu2fo/why-did-the-ming-treasure-voyages-end-in-1433 |
# [Linkpost] AlphaFold: a solution to a 50-year-old grand challenge in biology
To my eyes, this looks like the sort of useful advance in applying AI that doesn't really improve capabilities, and thus is just net positive, even judged by a safety mindset. But I'm curious to know if other people think differently.
(Not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oxMnpC9kBRvtwCjsb/linkpost-alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand |
# Preface to the Sequence on Factored Cognition
Factored Cognition is primarily [studied](https://ought.org/research/factored-cognition) by [Ought](https://ought.org/), the same organization that was partially credited for implementing the [interactive prediction feature](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnrpxdnodQmanibmB/preface-to-the-sequence-on-factored-cognition |
# Idealized Factored Cognition
_(This post is part of a sequence that's meant to be read in order; see the [preface](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnrpxdnodQmanibmB/preface-to-the-sequence-on-factored-cognition).)_
# 1. HCH and Ideal Debate
Recall from [post #-2](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhfATmAoJcN8RqGg6/a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S5oWwZMJBvfChSquW/idealized-factored-cognition |
# SETI Predictions
I enjoyed reading through people's views of the [AGI Predictions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YMokuZdoY9tEDHjzv/agi-predictions). I know only a little about AI and a little bit more about SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), so I decided to make a similar poll.
The [First Contact](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vMXeKNyhDQw2YLqX2/seti-predictions |
# Non-Book Review: Patterns of Conflict
Soviet MiG-15 (left) and American F-86 (right)
From 1951-53, the Korean war saw the first major dogfi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sb99zjyFaKYwRAMWC/non-book-review-patterns-of-conflict |
# Giving Tuesday 2020
As they did in [2018](https://www.jefftk.com/p/facebook-donation-match) and [2019](https://www.jefftk.com/p/getting-ready-for-the-fb-donation-match), Facebook is running donation matching for Giving Tuesday. The match is "real" in that you can choose which charity receives the money, but not "rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eg6fmsHxRQNW2fukS/giving-tuesday-2020 |
# What is “protein folding”? A brief explanation
Today Google DeepMind [announced](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology) that their deep learning system AlphaFold has achieved unprecedented levels of accuracy on the “protein folding problem”, a grand challe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NvnEqSRaTLuRXYfmX/what-is-protein-folding-a-brief-explanation |
# The LessWrong 2018 Book is Available for Pre-order
For the first time, you can now buy the best new ideas on LessWrong in a physical book set, titled:
> *A Map that Reflects the Territory: Essays by the LessWrong Community*
It is available for pre-order [here](http://www.lesswrong.com/books).
The standard advice ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TTPux7QFBpKxZtMKE/the-lesswrong-2018-book-is-available-for-pre-order |
# My Fear Heuristic
My friends and family call me "risk tolerant". I wasn't always this way. It is the result of a 3-year-long scientific experiment.
> You must do everything that frightens you…Everything. I’m not talking about risking your life, but everything else. Think about fear, decide right now how you’re doin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHpazCw3ryvBojGSa/my-fear-heuristic |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 3
"I solemnly swear that I am up to no good."
Fred and George had carried concealed broomsticks at all times since the previous year's troll attack. When they heard Harry Potter's prophecy at the Quidditch final they flew just over the castle walls and then Apparated ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7wGNo4CxqqwDr7N7/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-3 |
# Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020
## Highlights
- DeepMind claims a major [breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology) in protein folding.
- OPEC forecasts [slower growth](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/oil-opec-cuts-2020-demand-forecast-agai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yB4HZjQ5CvWzn5Soo/forecasting-newsletter-november-2020 |
# In a multipolar scenario, how do people expect systems to be trained to interact with systems developed by other labs?
I haven't seen much discussion of this, but it seems like an important factor in how well AI systems deployed by actors with different goals manage to avoid conflict (cf. my discussion of equilibr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pkthep47ukcrK3MNm/in-a-multipolar-scenario-how-do-people-expect-systems-to-be |
# Poll: Any interest in an editing buddy system?
There was a [popular post](https://mtlynch.io/editor/) today linked from [Hacker News](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25262272) on the benefits of hiring a freelance editor. Looking into it, I think that what's described is really "Developmental editing" and "stru... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4RbpSzGsiuYgWzbmJ/poll-any-interest-in-an-editing-buddy-system |
# Eth2 Staking explained as a Financial Instrument
*A major cryptocurrency can now be applied as an income generating asset.*
If you don’t keep up with cryptocurrency news, you probably don’t know that today marks the beginning of one of the most important updates in one of the largest cryptocurrencies out there.
[E... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uzRKPT9xtY3nWPGXc/eth2-staking-explained-as-a-financial-instrument |
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