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# Should I take glucosamine?
This paper came up on my news feed today: https://www.jabfm.org/content/jabfp/33/6/842.full.pdf
According to the research, daily intake of glucosamine/chondroitin supplements for at least a year is associated with a 39% reduction in all-cause mortality.
This is a cohort study, not a rand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mgs6PCKrhNTQdZjz7/should-i-take-glucosamine |
# The LessWrong 2019 Review
Today is the start of the 2019 Review, continuing our tradition of checking which things that were written on LessWrong still hold up a year later, and to help build an ongoin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QFBEjjAvT6KbaA3dY/the-lesswrong-2019-review |
# Prizes for Last Year's 2018 Review
About a year ago, LessWrong held it's first annual review, where we looked over the best posts from 2018. The LessWrong team offered $2000 in prizes for the top post authors, and (up to) $2000 in prizes for the best reviews of those posts.
For our [top post authors](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wyqXDpYRHjRaeSqBf/prizes-for-last-year-s-2018-review |
# Recursive Quantilizers II
I originally introduced the recursive quantilizers idea [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/SBfqYgHf2zvxyKDtB/p/bEa4FuLS4r7hExoty), but didn't provide a formal model until my recent [Learning Normativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s/learning-normativity-a-research-agend... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YNuJjRuxsWWzfvder/recursive-quantilizers-ii |
# [AN #127]: Rethinking agency: Cartesian frames as a formalization of ways to carve up the world into an agent and its environment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZZDHoqpHmChxEYMme/an-127-rethinking-agency-cartesian-frames-as-a-formalization |
# How We Failed COVID-19
Since the start of the year, the West has been in the grip of an unprecedented public health crisis. Hundreds of thousands have died, daily life has changed severely and the econ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uRBDdQucvDDZN9LZw/how-we-failed-covid-19 |
# Are index funds still a good investment?
I don't really follow the investment scene, but from people who do, I had gotten the impression that index funds are generally the best bet for a lazy investor. So late last year I started regularly putting some money in them. Now some of my more finance-savvy friends are say... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vn9XkKE8cPBaYbkNu/are-index-funds-still-a-good-investment |
# How I Write
Cross-posted, as always, from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/11/15/how-i-write/).
* * *
Five years ago I started Putanumonit not expecting that anyone would read it. That year I had a chance to meet two of my favorite bloggers, Scott Alexander and Tim Urban, and discovered that they had bot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N2iHH2HcN94nYPhuh/how-i-write |
# Logistics for the 2020 online Secular Solstice*
Solstice is coming up soon! Since it's online this year ([facebook event](https://www.facebook.com/events/357857305452573)), anyone can join. This post describes logistics relevant to attending. If you're not familiar with Secular Solstice the holiday event, more info ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TH5qNLtuEi5MRwnq6/logistics-for-the-2020-online-secular-solstice |
# Why Recent Protein Folding Advancements Should Change Your Personal Health Strategy
I'm not a sports person, but anybody can appreciate the wisdom in Gretzky's famous quote *"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."*
Based on my current age of 47, as well as actuarial tables for US males... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MEY7NqxM72m5YnRra/why-recent-protein-folding-advancements-should-change-your |
# Gifts as free exploration
# TLDR
Exploration – trying new things, even when there are safe, familiar things within reach – is hard. Risky. *Stressful.* It’s also essential to a rich and vibrant life well lived. Like most other hard, stressful, important things, it’s better done together than apart. With our unique ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AeHoKtAC6kvAdABZa/gifts-as-free-exploration |
# Covid 12/3: Land of Confusion
[Last week](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/11/26/covid-11-26-thanksgiving/) I warned that we would have unusually high uncertainty for a while thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday. This was both due to unknown events and difficulties in measurement. Reporting and testing would both be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vkvaAXHN2zPXhDjJC/covid-12-3-land-of-confusion |
# In Addition to Ragebait and Doomscrolling
(Sorry for the coy title--I want to give the reader a chance to guess what the addition is.)
One day I opened up the front page of reddit. I was not signed in and I was using my browser's incognito mode.
The following list composed about 25% of what I saw as I scrolled. Se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CpZmtD9FBzyzueGfP/in-addition-to-ragebait-and-doomscrolling |
# Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
*Thanks to Ozzie Gooen for reviewing this post.*
Introduction
------------
[The Parable of the Predict-O-Matic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwcyMEgLyd4C3Dern/the-parable-of-predict-o-matic) is a short story whic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with |
# LW Sundays: All Things "Evaluation" – December 6th, 12:00PM (PT)
This Sunday, two or three speakers from the newly formed Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (focused on epistemics and forecasting) will present on the general topic of "evaluations" and seek feedback on their work from attendees.
An "evaluati... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/5oyGNcE7jmocKWPaZ/lw-sundays-all-things-evaluation-december-6th-12-00pm-pt |
# Notes on Integrity
This post examines the virtue of **integrity**. I mean to explore what others have learned about this virtue, rather than expressing my own opinions, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, but as someo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mu5QxDeoJH6wb7DNW/notes-on-integrity |
# Teacher's Password: The LessWrong Mystery Hunt Team
Followup to: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNTabF6vQjeDeSar7/interest-survey-forming-an-mit-mystery-hunt-team-jan-15-18](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNTabF6vQjeDeSar7/interest-survey-forming-an-mit-mystery-hunt-team-jan-15-18)
We are making a LessWrong tea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/StbTTmFZD6jZrCCH8/teacher-s-password-the-lesswrong-mystery-hunt-team |
# How a billionaire could spend their money to help the disadvantaged: 7 ideas from the top of my head
When I first began writing this, my goal was to think of 50 different ways an extremely wealthy person (by which I mean wealthy on the level of having hundreds of millions to several billions of dollars at their disp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EiuzxB7PTmRarQq4y/how-a-billionaire-could-spend-their-money-to-help-the |
# The Darwin Game - Conclusion
Evolution is unintelligent. The bugs removed intelligence from the design of the bots. The more bugs I wrote into my simulator, the better my simulation replicated real-world Darwinian population dynamics. After two alternate timelines with a buggy game engine, I have finally gotten arou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion |
# Postmortem on my Comment Challenge
On the 11th of November, I [challenged myself](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6yJtSKLiLLXP34SA/the-unofficial-less-wrong-comment-challenge?commentId=euo5trZ4K4oe6X72Z) to comment every frontpage post for the rest of November. The result? Well, I [failed](https://www.lesswrong.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B3gDZd53XmYkZBMeC/postmortem-on-my-comment-challenge |
# Commitment and credibility in multipolar AI scenarios
The ability to make credible commitments is a key factor in many bargaining situations ranging from trade to international conflict. This post builds a taxonomy of the commitment mechanisms that transformative AI (TAI) systems could use in future multipolar scena... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LvtsFKxg2t3nWhKRq/commitment-and-credibility-in-multipolar-ai-scenarios |
# Meetup Organizers, Our Virtual Garden is at Your Disposal
**Edited to Add:** Here's my [Calendly](https://calendly.com/ruby_lesswrong/15min) for anyone who wants to get set up.
**TL;DR **
If you're a LessWrong or SSC meetup organizer who wants to host online events, we are offering to let you host them in the *Les... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HgSnt8bvjdQ9rf7eo/meetup-organizers-our-virtual-garden-is-at-your-disposal |
# Online Meetup for the Meetup Organizers (Sun, 20th December)
*Added:* [*FB Event*](https://fb.me/e/3o4b0vRWy)
If you currently or historically have organized meetups for your community (LW/SSC/EA/MIRIx/etc), please join us on **Sunday, December 20th at 2:00PM (PT)** in the LessWrong Walled Garden.
I reckon it'd be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/b5zrM57Cg7mh8zYJM/online-meetup-for-the-meetup-organizers-sun-20th-december |
# Forecasting is a responsibility
[Real world examples](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with) of the [Parable of Predict-O-Matic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwcyMEgLyd4C3Dern/the-parable-of-predict-o-matic) show that trust in predictive accura... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ojwwxNh4kXuMY2EgZ/forecasting-is-a-responsibility |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 5
"What do you mean 'bureaucratically impossible'?" said Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.
"It just is," said Mad-Eye Moody.
"Nothing 'just is'," Harry said, "Everything happens for a material reason. What *precisely* is preventing you from acquiring the permits?"
"I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KnGk9T5KET36irarw/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-5 |
# Map and Territory: Summary and Thoughts
This is the first post in a [sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/nWEqWdoZAca8kj5zM) of posts summarizing [Rationality From AI to Zombies](https://www.lesswrong.com/rationality).
Rationality, probability theory, and decision theory
===========================================... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2hJZ5BwDhDXxPBSBL/map-and-territory-summary-and-thoughts |
# The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Last year, Donald Hobson created this awesome AI Safety card game. I and a few other people at MSFP played it and had loads of fun. :) Unfortunately, we've lost the cards, and the rules. So I'm reviving the game here. Enjoy! (Also, please invent and add new cards to the spreadsheet!)
(U... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nex8EgEJPsn7dvoQB/the-ai-safety-game-updated |
# [RXN#7] Russian x-risks newsletter fall 2020
**Coronavirus**
While the covid continues to make record numbers in Russia, many Russian transhumanists participated in the clinical trial or Russian *Sputnik-5* vaccine or of the Chinese vaccine. They developed antibodies, didn’t fail ill and have mild adverse effects. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C37iECcuQSt7opfCT/rxn-7-russian-x-risks-newsletter-fall-2020 |
# Supervised learning in the brain, part 4: compression / filtering
For those who haven't been following along, for reasons described [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diruo47z32eprenTg/my-computational-framework-for-the-brain) I've been trying to get a big-picture understanding of brain modules outside what I ca... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tnwmcSGDDRQh6wrX5/supervised-learning-in-the-brain-part-4-compression |
# Anti-EMH Evidence (and a plea for help)
The debate over EMH should perhaps be framed as "What skill level and assets under management do I need to make it worthwhile to play the markets instead of doing passive investing?" This is a list of anti-EMH evidence (that I personally came across in my relatively short expl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pYxpvoGKa5Sdnxpmc/anti-emh-evidence-and-a-plea-for-help |
# AI Winter Is Coming - How to profit from it?
*Note: This isn't the place to debate/convince others of your position on AI winter. There are* [*plenty*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines) [*of*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxQtz3RP4qsqTkEwL/an-121-forecasting-trans... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bqFu8fxokJSPjidJo/ai-winter-is-coming-how-to-profit-from-it |
# Human Genetic Engineering: Increasing Intelligence
[View my previous post on genetic engineering](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5FrpeM7L2kfhxycNQ/the-case-for-human-genetic-engineering-1)
In my last post I covered three different ways in which genetically engineering humans could be beneficial:
1\. It could allo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6ZdDqx48aFNi49Pp/human-genetic-engineering-increasing-intelligence |
# D&D.Sci
You are studying to become an Adventurer. You’re excited to begin your Great Quest, but also anxious: over a third of the graduates from your program fail to accomplish their Great Quests. And if you’re being brutally honest with yourself, your odds are probably worse than that, since your stats – while abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HsxT2cpPWYzTg9tpY/d-and-d-sci |
# Values Form a Shifting Landscape (and why you might care)
_Huge thanks to Veronika Žolnerčíková for drawing the pictures for this post. I am also grateful to the people who provided feedback on various versions of the text._
Comment on the epistemic status of this text: _The model described here is oversimplified, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4Qd2pDWeFPgYZfkSg/values-form-a-shifting-landscape-and-why-you-might-care |
# Cultural accumulation
_Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)._
When I think of humans being so smart due to ‘cultural accumulation’, I think of lots of tiny innovations in thought and technology being made by different people, and added to the interpersonal ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P47Npe5ptdtmTzfxp/cultural-accumulation |
# Minimal Maps, Semi-Decisions, and Neural Representations
*Epistemological Status: I attempt to distill the [minimal map](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lz2nCYnBeaZyS68Xb/probability-as-minimal-map) argument and provide a natural way to chain a sequence of queries together. I argue that this definition, together wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ur4yr6WRCmEb5YfuH/minimal-maps-semi-decisions-and-neural-representations |
# Pre-Hindsight Prompt: Why did 2021 NOT bring a return to normalcy?
Feel free to modify the prompt into something like "why was 2021 even worse/more intense than 2020". Also go ahead and substitute 2022, if you think "the direct effects of the pandemic continue into 2021 for a while" is too boring of an answer.
**P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nDBBozgARRHcMJsju/pre-hindsight-prompt-why-did-2021-not-bring-a-return-to |
# The Incomprehensibility Bluff
**I. Outlining the Bluff**
--------------------------
If you are in a conversation with another person, and you cannot understand what they are saying, various possibilities present themselves; two of which are as follows:
1. They are much more intelligent or knowledgeable than you. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9a5cZA7ekBCGbZ6T8/the-incomprehensibility-bluff |
# Toward A Culture of Persuasion
Most writers work alone at a desk. They're drawing on memories of conversations, tinkering with ideas, deleting a word, pausing, and then writing the same word again. Many advice-givers on the writer's craft suggest that the author write for an ideal reader. This solitary art form make... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Ph3ePaYKaB9SskYs/toward-a-culture-of-persuasion |
# Launching the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament
I'm excited to let you know that Metaculus is launching the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/), a large-scale forecasting tournament with $50,000 in prizes. Participation is open to all.
The tournament is intended ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kWP5vcW4FSpM3is3J/launching-the-forecasting-ai-progress-tournament |
# Number-guessing protocol?
Suppose several people are guessing a number, and then find an estimate to see who is right.
The super-common protocol is: whoever is closest, wins.
This protocol is really bad. If there are three people, and I guess 50, then the other two people can guess 51 and 49. This means I'll almos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFeuvuQzbutZdqgs9/number-guessing-protocol |
# Traversing a Cognition Space
_(This post is part of a sequence that's meant to be read in order; see the [preface](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnrpxdnodQmanibmB/preface-to-the-sequence-on-factored-cognition).)_
[Post #1](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S5oWwZMJBvfChSquW/idealized-factored-cognition) was about d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FNyqL7mxSkgLpck4w/traversing-a-cognition-space |
# Announcing the Technical AI Safety Podcast
Please comment if you use an obscure podcast app and I'll try to set it up for my feed. I'll have at least spotify, apple podcasts, and stitcher up shortly.
EDIT: spotify, pocketcasts, stitcher, and apple podcasts are live. google podcasts is simply timegated at this point... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mpid6qXd3rQXDef7p/announcing-the-technical-ai-safety-podcast |
# Notes on Fairness
This post examines the virtue of **fairness**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what others have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Je72MTmqAoT5R3zX3/notes-on-fairness |
# Please Take the 2020 Effective Altruism Survey
**The 2020 Effective Altruism Survey is now live at the following link:** [**https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/EAS2020LW**](https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/EAS2020LW)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2Qvakmhjjvsh88LKb/please-take-the-2020-effective-altruism-survey |
# An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession
*(Already know what Laplace's rule of succession is and just want the proof? Scroll down.)*
Suppose I give you a bag of marbles and tell you that all the marbles are either green or black. You repeatedly reach in, pick out a random marble, and then put it back. You f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mH7yFheZJkLzWtd9S/an-elegant-proof-of-laplace-s-rule-of-succession-1 |
# Why are delicious biscuits obscure?
*Crossposted from* [*world spirit sock puppet*](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/meteuphoric.html)*.*
I saw a picture of these biscuits (or cookies), and they looked very delicious. So much so that I took the uncharacteristic step of actually making them. They were indeed among ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQ83GAsHHiFqQoaNj/why-are-delicious-biscuits-obscure |
# How long does it take to become Gaussian?
The central limit theorems all say that if you convolve stuff enough, and that stuff is sufficiently nice, the result will be a [Gaussian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution) distribution. How much is enough, and how nice is sufficient?
Identically-distribut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YM6Qgiz9RT7EmeFpp/how-long-does-it-take-to-become-gaussian |
# Conservatism in neocortex-like AGIs
*(Related to* [*Stuart Armstrong’s post last summer on Model Splintering*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k54rgSg7GcjtXnMHX/model-splintering-moving-from-one-imperfect-model-to-another-1)*.)*
Let’s say I have a human personal assistant. Call him Ahmed. Ahmed is generally trying ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c92YC89tznC7579Ej/conservatism-in-neocortex-like-agis |
# Chance that "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"
As part of the 2020 Effective Altruism Student Summit, AI safety researcher [Buck Shlegeris](https://youtu.be/R6Mzt4GwQnQ) advised newcomers to "think through the entire problem,"... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xACom5ytqBogcuad/chance-that-ai-safety-basically-doesn-t-need-to-be-solved-we |
# Quick Thoughts on Immoral Mazes
I *finally* got around to reading (most of) Zvi's sequence [Immoral Mazes](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS). I may want to turn some of the following ideas into longer posts, but I thought I'd try to get out some quick thoughts.
Connections to Dictator's Handbook
======... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8T8DewgLTvKAqKxw5/quick-thoughts-on-immoral-mazes |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 6
"It's in the Mirror of Atlantis," Harry said.
"We need Gillyweed," said Luna, "Lots of Gillyweed."
"The Mirror of Atlantis is located at the end of the third-floor corridor on the right-hand side," said Harry.
"What are you waiting for?" said Luna.
"You're not go... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yYq3dysgWrBWQrycm/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-6 |
# Walk to a San Francisco FedEx
Today I had three work projects so close to done that I might be able to put something up on each, which would usually encourage work enthusiasm. But when I started on the first, I was struck by a strong inclination to stop and do something else. I didn’t immediately, but the inclinatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBzz4sfqeiGwJBmew/walk-to-a-san-francisco-fedex |
# [AN #128]: Prioritizing research on AI existential safety based on its application to governance demands
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In parti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esjMWREvj3WKZpBZd/an-128-prioritizing-research-on-ai-existential-safety-based |
# Summary of AI Research Considerations for Human Existential Safety (ARCHES)
I read Andrew Critch and David Krueger's AI Research Considerations for Human Existential Safety (ARCHES) recently, which is a report that outlines and discusses 29 research directions which might be helpful for AI existential safety. This h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QYJo82ixxjFFfN9za/summary-of-ai-research-considerations-for-human-existential |
# Final Day to Order LW Books by Christmas for US
Today is the last day we are guaranteeing delivery-before-Christmas to those who preorder the LessWrong books to North America (i.e. US, Canada, Mexico).
Order them at [lesswrong.com/books](https://www.lesswrong.com/books) by 12pm midnight Pacific time to still be inc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/43sx4K4TXn7rrjnHE/final-day-to-order-lw-books-by-christmas-for-us |
# Parable of the Dammed
Once upon a time, two families fought a bloody feud over the border of their properties. After many years of escalation, neither family could afford to continue the fight. They both wanted to negotiate a truce, but the original issue still had to be settled: where was the border of their lands ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FbJYEn6eWA5JnGeGP/parable-of-the-dammed |
# Unexplored modes of language
English can be communicated via 2D symbols that can be drawn on paper using a hand and seen with eyes, or via sounds that can be made with a mouth and heard by ears.
These two forms are the same language because the mouth sounds and drawn symbols correspond at the level of words (and us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TQBHfWfnzG8dSPJxF/unexplored-modes-of-language |
# Containment Thread on the Motivation and Political Context for My Philosophy of Language Agenda
So, if you've been reading my _Less Wrong_ posts over the last twenty-one months, you'll notice that I've been doing a lot of philosophy-of-language blogging lately! Those posts are:
* ["Where to Draw the Boundaries?"](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5aqumaym7Jd2qhDcy/containment-thread-on-the-motivation-and-political-context |
# Covid 12/10: Vaccine Approval Day in America
Today, the FDA is meeting to discuss Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine. By the time many of you read this, they will have hopefully given the vaccine, and perhaps Moderna’s as well, emergency use authorization. If that happens, distributions to the states can begin, and some peop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fM23gKEwNGqunKMw5/covid-12-10-vaccine-approval-day-in-america |
# What technologies could cause world GDP doubling times to be <8 years?
Some people think GDP is a good metric for AI timelines and takeoff speeds, and that the world economy will double in 4 years before the start of the first 1-year doubling period, and that AGI will happen after the economy is already growing much... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2rQ9vv9HY6i2Z2vQ4/what-technologies-could-cause-world-gdp-doubling-times-to-be |
# Mental Blinders from Working Within Systems
In [make an extraordinary effort](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GuEsfTpSDSbXFiseH/make-an-extraordinary-effort) (and in other posts), Eliezer talks about how uncommon goals require uncommon means. He also notes that people seem incredibly unwilling to consider these unus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bgTRXpc22WyEic3fx/mental-blinders-from-working-within-systems |
# Epistemic Warfare
Lying and censorship are both adversarial games: they are applied by some for an advantage over others.
All else being equal, one is harmful because it spreads disinformation, the other is harmful because it suppresses the spread of accurate information. When someone or a group justifies using... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GzSyE6iuxsQkqhpGB/epistemic-warfare |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 7
They were in the hospital wing.
"Who are you?" Harry Potter said to Luna.
"You-Know-Who. Hiss hiss hiss," Luna said. She held fingers down from her mouth and swayed like a snake.
"This is Loony—" Hermione said, "Luna Lovegood. She created the *BOY-WHO-LIVED GETS D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T67XjmbwCPT2jhqgk/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-7 |
# Flights of wonder
Today I put up the last page in [AI Impacts](http://aiimpacts.org/)’ (primarily Ronny Fernandez’s) [investigation](https://aiimpacts.org/are-human-engineered-flight-designs-better-or-worse-than-natural-ones/) into how human-made flying machines compare to evolved ones. (Relevant to how we expect hu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pGs2gLocY7MoGM52K/flights-of-wonder |
# The Good Life Quantified
Cross-posted, as always, [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/12/10/good-life-putanumed/).
* * *
Rob Wiblin writes at [80,000 Hours](https://80000hours.org/), a site for systematically thinking about how to have a positive impact for the world through your career. The site tends... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/deAkowY3DnYCMNnpA/the-good-life-quantified |
# Death Positive Movement
The Death Positive Movement was started by Caitlin Doughty to build a culture of positivity around the prospect of human mortality. The [8 Tenets of the Death Positive Movement](http://www.orderofthegooddeath.com/resources/death-positive-movement#1) are outlined as follows:
> 1. I believe t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f4yAjgCrSmA9D8f3p/death-positive-movement |
# [Expired] 20,000 Free $50 Charity Gift Cards
**Update:** The "20,000 free $50 Charity Gift Cards" opportunity expired on 12/11 around 10 PM EST, about 9 hours after it opened, according to an update on the website that reads "We’re happy to share that together, we’ve given away 30,000 Charity Gift Cards to support t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hynmH6ovMrMd4but4/expired-20-000-free-usd50-charity-gift-cards |
# Notes on Chastity
This post examines the virtue of **chastity**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RpAa8Dvyqi79Zeitf/notes-on-chastity |
# Avoiding Side Effects in Complex Environments
Previously: [*Attainable Utility Preservation: Empirical Results*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/7CdoznhJaLEKHwvJW/p/4J4TA2ZF3wmSxhxuc)*; summarized in* [*AN #105*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gWRJDwqHnmJhurXgo/an-105-the-economic-trajectory-of-humanity-and-what-we-mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5kurn5W62C5CpSWq6/avoiding-side-effects-in-complex-environments |
# The Flynn Effect Clarified
I said in [my review of WEIRDest
People](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kYJ6RvS9zJ3WrGP7o/book-review-weirdest-people)
that the Flynn effect seems like a natural consequence of thinking
styles that became more analytical, abstract, reductionist, and
numerical.
I\'ll expand here on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z4TgLvK46GvWHZ24j/the-flynn-effect-clarified |
# The institution of email
There seems to be a common phenomenon where people get messages, then fail to respond to them, then feel bad. And the rarer strategy of actually dealing with all of one’s emails promptly doesn’t even seem obviously better. Was that how things were with letters or telegrams? Is it just that t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mrAxgTT95QkEmqZCa/the-institution-of-email |
# D&D.Sci Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HsxT2cpPWYzTg9tpY/d-and-d-sci) I made a week ago; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-and-d-sci/) is the web interactive I built to let ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pux6NYtaFdqTwyz94/d-and-d-sci-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Why quantitative methods are heartwarming
From Twitter:
> If you listened to my podcast w/Michael Sandel, you know we have very different views on whether markets are "degrading"
>
> One thing I didn't mention to him: This bit in his book cracked me up -- because I remember my friends & I found this aspect of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jCRrNKa9kT6bqRD7j/why-quantitative-methods-are-heartwarming |
# The Fermi Paradox has not been dissolved - James Fodor
> In this essay, I will argue that the analysis of Sandberg et al. is flawed in a number of key respects, and as a result the Fermi Paradox remains an open question. Here I briefly list the key problems with the Sandberg et al. paper, before proceeding to discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kQAXvMYo5mjiQzNor/the-fermi-paradox-has-not-been-dissolved-james-fodor |
# To listen well, get curious
[](https://www.benkuhn.net/listen/shawarma.jpg "fullsize")
[source](https://twitter.com/thecassiecao/status/1276506378388017155/photo/1)
A common piece of interacting-with-peo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4K5pJnKBGkqqTbyxx/to-listen-well-get-curious |
# Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1
I’ve decided to run a pseudorandomness contest — a reverse Turing test of sorts, if you will. Winners will get to send some of my money to a charity of their choice! Here’s how it’s going to work:
**Round 1: Pseudorandom number generation**
Should you choose to take part, you will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZH3urstwzimjYa6zW/pseudorandomness-contest-round-1 |
# Writing tools for tabooing?
I was [recently reminded of E'](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries?commentId=WkYZMDYzo6HTX56xM), that is, [English without any forms of the verb "to be"](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Prime). Are there any tools for writing in E'?
More gene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rRzmhNHLDMZGsR5Sg/writing-tools-for-tabooing |
# Clarifying Factored Cognition
This post is sort of an intermediate between parts 1 and 2 of the sequence. It makes three points that I think people tend to get wrong.
# 1. Factored Cognition is about reducing hard problems to human judgment to achieve outer alignment.
It's possible to lose sight of why Factored Co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eCWkJrFff7oMLwjEp/clarifying-factored-cognition |
# Hermione Granger and Newcomb's Paradox
Omega hovered before Hermione Granger. Between them rested two boxes labelled "A" and "B".
"Do the boxes have any special powers beyond modifying my Muggle bank balance?" Hermione asked.
"No," Omega said.
"Where do you get the money?" she asked.
"What do you mean?" Omega s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oFa6A2pmPNjdhZDJm/hermione-granger-and-newcomb-s-paradox |
# The Power of Annealing
*Crossposted from* [*mybrainsthoughts.com*](https://mybrainsthoughts.com/?p=249)
Metals are a unique form of matter, especially with regards to their behavior under heating and cooling. While metals are described by the material they’re made of (e.g. copper or iron), their properties are dete... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rwTgQmBhm28YFn5Py/the-power-of-annealing |
# On Reflection
Introduction
------------
[The world is full of wasted motion](https://www.neelnanda.io/blog/mini-blog-post-22-the-8020-rule). Many things are far below where they should be, many actions fail to achieve their goals, and this includes many of _your_ actions. And this is not because you’re failing, but... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HZRmRt68Dgucs6G62/on-reflection |
# [link] The AI Girlfriend Seducing China’s Lonely Men
And this is only using today's technology...
> HEBEI, North China — On a frigid winter’s night, Ming Xuan stood on the roof of a high-rise apartment building near his home. He leaned over the ledge, peering down at the street below. His mind began picturing what ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yJbCa9Rc3izDGqMgF/link-the-ai-girlfriend-seducing-china-s-lonely-men |
# What confusions do people have about simulacrum levels?
I've noticed comments to effect of "simulacrum levels seem very confusing". Personally, [simulacrum levels](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/simulacrum-levels) seem fairly obvious-in-retrospect and self-expanatory to me, based on a handful of explanations and exam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z996vmMDp64DveLpQ/what-confusions-do-people-have-about-simulacrum-levels |
# Decision-Making and Accountability
Photo by [dylan nolte](https://unsplash.com/@dylan_nolte?utm_source=medium&utm_medium=referral) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com?utm_source=medium&utm_medium=referral)
Quick: what’s the _best_ decision you’ve ever... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RN3ZRB8uP9Hf6FvJr/decision-making-and-accountability |
# What are the best precedents for industries failing to invest in valuable AI research?
The efficient market hypothesis applied to AI is an important variable for timelines. The idea is: If AGI (or TAI, or whatever) was close, the big corporations would be spending a lot more money trying to get to it first. Half of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/27h99G7P6fkucKdkk/what-are-the-best-precedents-for-industries-failing-to |
# Risk Map of AI Systems
_Joint work with Jan Kulveit. Many thanks to the various people who gave me feedback._
This text describes a model of the space of possible AI systems, as we try to navigate it safely towards AGI.[\[1\]](about:blank#fn-rPQWc4sXkYT2bWfvn-1) Its primary goal is to provide a simple mental model ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QskBy5uDd2oeEGkBB/risk-map-of-ai-systems |
# The wild
The idea of art about nature doesn’t sound exciting to me in the abstract. Perhaps I remember that I am evolutionarily supposed to see it and go, ‘oh fantastic, it’s green and blue near each other, maybe I’m in for some reproductive success’, and that doesn’t sound very inspiring. (Yes, I know that simple e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LWv9C63iEY5db82wT/the-wild |
# Motive Ambiguity
Central theme in: [Immoral Mazes Sequence](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/05/23/mazes-sequence-summary/), but this generalizes.
When looking to succeed, [pain is not the unit of effort](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bx3gkHJehRCYZAF3r/pain-is-not-the-unit-of-effort), and [money is a, if not the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L6Ktf952cwdMJnzWm/motive-ambiguity |
# Homogeneity vs. heterogeneity in AI takeoff scenarios
_Special thanks to Kate Woolverton for comments and feedback._
There has been [a lot](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfGmsjGPXN97kNp57/arguments-about-fast-takeoff) [of work](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Tpn2Fx9daLvj28kes/continuing-the-takeoffs-de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mKBfa8v4S9pNKSyKK/homogeneity-vs-heterogeneity-in-ai-takeoff-scenarios |
# Which sources do you trust the most on nutrition advice for exercise?
I'm trying to become stronger and get a better physique. My current goal is what the internet calls "body recomposition", which involves trying to build muscle and lose fat at the same time. This breaks down to answering questions about:
1. How... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JzzakxZd9N7PTm8r8/which-sources-do-you-trust-the-most-on-nutrition-advice-for |
# Less Basic Inframeasure Theory
$\newcommand{\la}{\lambda}\newcommand{\supm}{\mathcal{M}^{a}}\newcommand{\sdp}{\ltimes}\newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon}\newcommand{\tok}{\overset{\mathrm{ik}}{\rightarrow}}\newcommand{\ent}{\mathcal{H}}$
**Introduction**
----------------
So, we've found some new results about infradistrib... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/idP5E5XhJGh9T5Yq9/less-basic-inframeasure-theory |
# Notes on Courtesy
This post examines the virtue of **courtesy**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WxRGSgNj5dmQ7mBmK/notes-on-courtesy |
# Debugging the student
I'd like to explain to you what differential equations are. Imagine that we have the following:
```
f''(x) + 2 * f'(x) = 3 * f(x)
```
It's saying that the second derivative of `f(x)` plus two times the first derivative of `f(x)` is equal to three times `f(x)`.
Following me so far? No? Why no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SfsZAitvivsTFBQnX/debugging-the-student |
# Bad reductionism
I've been becoming more of a nature person recently.
- I moved into an apartment about a mile from the mountains and there's something really cool to me about being on the outskirts of town, crossing the line from "society" into "nature".
- A few weeks ago I went on a trip to the Grand Canyon. We al... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GYhPBd57rqcioQjjN/bad-reductionism |
# How to Compliment
As part of a social skills sequence I'm writing, I did a deep dive on how compliments, covering areas like
— what topics are most often complimented
— in what situations are they most often exchanged
— how are they amplified or diminished
— what are the purposes behind complimenting behavior
The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tXa5AkbfjyLo6v3dq/how-to-compliment |
# What is it good for? But actually?
I didn’t learn about history very well prior to my thirties somehow, but lately I’ve been variously trying to rectify this. Lately I’ve been reading Howard Zinn’s [People’s History of the United States](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00O2YH8EQ/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63GJ97zB3pWzDzPS7/what-is-it-good-for-but-actually |
# Why I love stand up comedy
Good stand up comedy is one of my favorite things in the world, and I think that [this joke](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atpndySMrVw) really demonstrates why:
[](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atpndySMrVw ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xfJoK3Buz2Dmo92Ay/why-i-love-stand-up-comedy |
# Incentivizing forecasting via social media
Daniel Kokotajlo and I published a post on [Incentivizing forecasting via social media](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/842uRXWoS76wxYG9C/incentivizing-forecasting-via-social-media) on the EA Forum, perhaps of interest to some readers here.
> Summary
> -------
> ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ygoyoBZPZQEeKE3gh/incentivizing-forecasting-via-social-media |
# Machine learning could be fundamentally unexplainable
I’m going to consider a fairly unpopular idea: most efforts towards “explainable AI” are essentially pointless. Useful as an academic pursuit and topic for philosophical debate, but not much else.
Consider this article a generator of interesting intuitions and v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vxLfja7hmcFifAtYd/machine-learning-could-be-fundamentally-unexplainable |
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