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# Beta test GPT-3 based research assistant
Ought is working on building Elicit, a tool to [automate and scale open-ended reasoning about the future](https://ought.org/updates/2020-11-09-forecasting). To date, we’ve collaborated with LessWrong to [embed interactive binary predictions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JL... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBgT4jAqTrPN7qh3Z/beta-test-gpt-3-based-research-assistant |
# [AN #129]: Explaining double descent by measuring bias and variance
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r3AcHkAXPbjPwXFjc/an-129-explaining-double-descent-by-measuring-bias-and |
# FHI paper published in Science: interventions against COVID-19
*This is a linkpost for *[*https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abd9338*](https://science.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abd9338)
**Summary**: this is basically a Bayesian regression of the COVID-19 cases and deaths in 41... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pT4NiYXnWBNoks32h/fhi-paper-published-in-science-interventions-against-covid |
# Two Explorations
Much has been written about the fundamental opposition between explore and exploit, chaos and order, yin and yang. In this post I make two observations about the psychology of this opposition.
In the first part, I challenge the metaphor of the comfort zone: a slowly-changing region in activity-spac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5aQAXWYp3y959ZKbF/two-explorations |
# Hard work is irritating
My understanding of getting into a flow state (or “being in the zone”) was completely wrong.
Authors like Steve Kotler and Csíkszentmihályi describe achieving flow as a structural problem. To achieve flow we must match our skills to the challenges in front of us, they write. If the challenge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xq9MrmFL6F3TFSndG/hard-work-is-irritating |
# It turns out that group meetings are mostly a terrible way to make decisions
Photo by [Danielle Cerullo](https://unsplash.com/@dncerullo?utm_source=medium&utm_medium=referral) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com?utm_source=medium&utm_medium=referral)
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ChZoncYGCHLp6XSZp/it-turns-out-that-group-meetings-are-mostly-a-terrible-way |
# Some things I’m looking forward to in 2021: probable post-pandemic edition
1. Fewer deaths all around
2. A giant party at my house
3. A portion of the research I feel bad about not doing just becoming irrelevant (e.g. what’s the evidence about surfaces now? Are we badly underestimating the harms of long covid?)
4... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vZBkDEWHTnzW5boL7/some-things-i-m-looking-forward-to-in-2021-probable-post |
# Covid 12/17: The First Dose
The Pfizer vaccine is being deployed to health care workers and long-term care facility residents. The Moderna vaccine is close behind, with [the full FDA report already out](https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download). There were some small extra delays thrown in for good measure, on the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rvzdi8RS9Bda5aLt2/covid-12-17-the-first-dose |
# Notes on Dignity
This post examines the virtue of **dignity**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cYyRyYskLjZAXibie/notes-on-dignity |
# How long till Inverse AlphaFold?
AlphaFold 2 takes an amino acid sequence as input, and outputs a 3D structure which represents the protein that that sequence forms. It would be cool if we could do it in reverse, i.e. the user inputs a 3D model (e.g. a gear, an axle, a wall with a hole in it of a certain shape...) a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqmPkJzDwPytejt4w/how-long-till-inverse-alphafold |
# Ideal Chess - drop chess perfected
Chess is fairly well known, but there's also an entire world of chess variants, games that take the core ideas of chess and change either a few details or completely reimagine the game, either to improve the game, or just change the flavour of the game. There's even [an entire webs... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gXLqCxELLKZRTWoMc/ideal-chess-drop-chess-perfected |
# No, Newspeak Won’t Make You Stupid
In George Orwell's book 1984, he describes a totalitarian society that, among other initiatives to suppress the population, implements "Newspeak", a heavily simplified version of the English language, designed with the stated intent of limiting the citizens' capacity to think for t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aMPSg8bxRehZy9Ao6/no-newspeak-won-t-make-you-stupid |
# Adapting to Means Testing
There are some things that we want everyone to have regardless of ability to pay, but providing them to everyone would be expensive. So we means test. A [fancy college](https://blog.prepscholar.com/colleges-that-offer-complete-financial-aid) may agree to meet 100% of demonstrated financial ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fBGdPgLJnQqtTP9eP/adapting-to-means-testing |
# [LIVE!!] LW/EA New Year's Ultra Party
The year 2020 has taken much of ordinary life from us, but if there's one thing we won't surrender without a fight, it's the goddamn, raging, off the rails, New Year's Eve Party we deserve.
In collaboration with [Effective Altruism Anywhere](https://www.facebook.com/EA.Anywhere... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PwinnkXkK2R7fcjdr/live-lw-ea-new-year-s-ultra-party |
# Thread for making 2019 Review accountability commitments
[The LessWrong 2019 Review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QFBEjjAvT6KbaA3dY/the-lesswrong-2019-review) is upon us. We're out of the nomination phase, and starting the review phase. 121 posts have passed into this second stage.
Now we join forces to answer ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5HTaBuxRyRSc4mHnP/thread-for-making-2019-review-accountability-commitments |
# Genetic magic
23andMe are now willing to guess where one’s ancestors are from at the level of counties. For instance, as well as thinking I have 19% Swedish ancestry, they now guess that it is primarily from Västra Götaland County. Which is in fact where my current Swedish relatives cluster. Their guesses in Ireland... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MtDd39zvKqtLa9QLQ/genetic-magic |
# Notes on Duty
This post examines the virtue of **duty**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rn8j3xtWqnWvBSuNa/notes-on-duty |
# Extrapolating GPT-N performance
[Brown et al. (2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf) (which describes the development of GPT-3) contains measurements of how 8 transformers of different sizes perform on several different benchmarks. In this post, I project how performance could improve for larger models, and g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2SNji3jXaLGhBeYP/extrapolating-gpt-n-performance |
# We desperately need to talk more about human challenge trials.
*Note: Thanks to Peter McCluskey, whose comment below helped me develop my thoughts further and which is worth reading in addition to this post.*
On March 11, 4,611 people had died of COVID-19, and the WHO declared the disease a pandemic. To date, COVID... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qfMzeienr34gfZHfw/we-desperately-need-to-talk-more-about-human-challenge |
# Hierarchical planning: context agents
*If you end up applying this post, please do it in the name of safety research.*
**I - intro**
-------------
Suppose I need groceries. When I make a plan to get more groceries, what I *don't* do is fully model the world (e.g. as a Markov process), find a policy that leads to m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ayQbR5opoTN4AgFb/hierarchical-planning-context-agents |
# Opposite attractions
Is the opposite of what you love also what you love?
I think there’s a general pattern where if you value A you tend to increase the amount of it in your life, and you end feeling very positively about various opposites of A—things that are very unlike A, or partially prevent A, or undo some of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zocrS9jzKTiSQqjfY/opposite-attractions |
# [Meta?] Using the LessWrong codebase for a blog
I enjoy the experience of using less-wrong. I believe it's one of the best-designed websites I've ever had the pleasure of stumbling upon.
I also have a personal blog, and I've been considering revamping it. While I do enjoy coding from scratch, I've been considering ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f3yagvMaHyRZty8ii/meta-using-the-lesswrong-codebase-for-a-blog |
# Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2
*\[Note: if you’re reading this on 12/20 I recommend checking again tomorrow in case I need to make any clarifications to the rules.\]*
Last week, I [asked you all](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2020/12/13/pseudorandomness-contest-round-1/) to take 10 minutes to write down and s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nazML9cjZqrNntkFj/pseudorandomness-contest-round-2 |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 9
The Ministry-sanctioned tour of the Chamber of Secrets was pure propaganda. The Marauder's Map showed a second entrance to the Chamber of Secrets hidden in the Girls' Bathroom.
"*Hss hsssss hsss,*" Luna copied from Harry Potter.
A sink opened up into a large tunnel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLTi5KJXjWxZQ7ggt/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-9 |
# Gauging the conscious experience of LessWrong
Yesterday I discovered I had been a victim of the Typical Mind Fallacy thanks to accidentally finding out that someone very close to me doesn’t have an internal monologue, doesn’t think in words and has a visual photographic memory. Despite knowing that such people exist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nJfjohbHifDinmHWh/gauging-the-conscious-experience-of-lesswrong |
# Interactive exploration of LessWrong and other large collections of documents
**TL;DR** We made a tool that allows you to interactively explore LessWrong, EA Forum and - potentially - other large collections of documents. It seems like this part of the Information Retrieval field is highly underutilized in practice,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b5nGqKvDs7vDFDGEN/interactive-exploration-of-lesswrong-and-other-large |
# How to eradicate the desire to check time-wasting sites
I used to be constantly checking messaging apps. Discord, Telegram, WhatsApp (and Email). They are the most skinner-boxy things I use since I don’t use other social media. But then I read the beautifully titled [Distraction Affliction Correction Extension](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtgjEEJfvZzFMeD2B/how-to-eradicate-the-desire-to-check-time-wasting-sites |
# Gratitude: Data and Anecdata
This is an attempt to go moderately deep on a particular happiness topic. For a broader overview of the topic I highly recommend Sonja Lyubomirsky's [The How of Happiness](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0010O927W/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1) and lukeprog's [How to Be Happy](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ChtdyGQt3QBpvgR5/gratitude-data-and-anecdata |
# New SARS-CoV-2 variant
*tl; dr: there is a mutated strain of COVID that seems to spread a lot more quickly. Here is* [*its Wikipedia page.*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VUI_%E2%80%93_202012/01)
**Last Monday (Dec 14)** the UK MP's were informed of a new strain of COVID-19, named "VUI – 202012/01". This strain see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YJTrpNPB8o6x7gLcX/new-sars-cov-2-variant |
# Intuition
In the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eCWkJrFff7oMLwjEp/clarifying-factored-cognition), I've said,
> [...] in both schemes, Factored Cognition includes a step that is by definition non-decomposable. In Ideal Debate, this is step is judging the final statement. In HCH, it is solving a pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mxmeeGk3mTM7BrT93/intuition |
# On Robin Hanson’s “Social Proof, but of What?”
Response Post to (Overcoming Bias): [Social Proof, But of What?](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/social-proof-but-of-what.html)
Epistemic Status: It seemed worth writing a long post but not a short one, so I saved time and wrote a long one. Feel free to skip thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NAXMqWzCxqkuwif3v/on-robin-hanson-s-social-proof-but-of-what |
# Secular Solstice 2020
Last night, about 225 people gathered for songs and stories. In the spirit of putting in a ridiculous amount of effort to keep doing normal things in abnormal times, a group of friends built a platform where we could listen together, and sing together, as we do every year. This was the biggest ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zdKCifZXQTKNazFyk/secular-solstice-2020 |
# Using spaced repetition to make the most out of blog posts and books
*Cross-posted from [timot.cool](https://timot.cool/blog/sr-for-readings)*
Spaced repetition (SR) is still an early field of collective experimentation. People have been coming up with many ideas on what to use SR for: trivia like the capitals of t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4q4LDFER69m6Bntik/using-spaced-repetition-to-make-the-most-out-of-blog-posts |
# Fusion and Equivocation in Korzybski's General Semantics
I [recently](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rRzmhNHLDMZGsR5Sg/writing-tools-for-tabooing) tried to figure out Korzybski's General Semantics again. I think I gained some insight into what Korzybski and followers were so excited about, and thought I'd try to wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQrWd5jPZQtpH8f4v/fusion-and-equivocation-in-korzybski-s-general-semantics |
# 2020 AI Alignment Literature Review and Charity Comparison
*cross-posted to the EA forum* [*here*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/K7Z87me338BQT3Mcv/2020-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison)*.*
Introduction
============
As in [2016](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSot23sAjoZR... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTYDdcag9pTzFQ7vw/2020-ai-alignment-literature-review-and-charity-comparison |
# How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vaccine For Oneself?
I always assumed, without investigating, that vaccine-making was the sort of thing which required highly specialized experts and equipment. But I've been hearing that the Moderna vaccine was designed in two days, which strongly suggests that it's *simple*. So... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5BikXJnAJpSzDD9Qv/how-hard-would-it-be-to-make-a-covid-vaccine-for-oneself |
# Babble Challenge: Not-So-Future Coordination Tech
In contrast to [John's question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w4kbvQjPy6HEKFNdA/what-would-advanced-social-technology-look-like), I'm looking for things which could easily happen if only we *had the idea,* facilitated by technology today, or (even better) with not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6iTdd8osWLThat3qq/babble-challenge-not-so-future-coordination-tech |
# Notes on Fitness
This post examines the virtue of **fitness**. I mean to explore what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than to express my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S2ifeFYm73EH8DpcW/notes-on-fitness |
# parenting rules
([crossposted from my nascent substack](https://mistaketheory.substack.com/p/parenting-rules))
Way back in 2012 I wrote up on livejournal (I told you this was a long time ago) a few parenting rules we lived by. This is the one livejournal post I regularly reshare, so here it is on a more modern plat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8gapy2nLy4wysXSGL/parenting-rules |
# How Lesswrong helped me make $25K: A rational pricing strategy
3 months ago, I started a company that helps people land jobs in exchange for a cut of their income once they land a job.
Since then, I've closed 5 customers worth about ~$25K. I strongly attribute my ability to close deals to how I price. I strongly at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aKT6WCs3ASvBWfLw9/how-lesswrong-helped-me-make-usd25k-a-rational-pricing |
# When life was literally full of crap
If you want a single, vivid, and frankly disgusting example to hold in mind to remember how much our lives have improved over the last ~150 years…
Consider *shit*.
Literally, excrement. How much previous generations had to think about it, be around it, even handle it.
Before t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTQ7Jh9t6TKiFH7fa/when-life-was-literally-full-of-crap |
# Consciousness of abstraction
Preface
-------
I expect that many people on LessWrong have heard of [Korzybski](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Korzybski), of [General Semantics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_semantics) (K's name for his system), and of some of the phrases he coined, such as ["the map is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uej8FbHD22Jnzez2L/consciousness-of-abstraction |
# The Best Visualizations on Every Subject
Edit: the list is now [a public GitHub repository](https://github.com/rnblough/The-Best-Visualizations-on-Every-Subject), with all that implies. Added sections by media type. Last update: 6 Jan 2021
**Motivation**
This is [The Best Textbooks on Every Subject](https://www.le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ek72rktvMrz69HBTL/the-best-visualizations-on-every-subject |
# What is food like?
I have an Anki^[1](#fn:1)^ deck of things I feel like a failure regarding. Instead of each card having a question that I see if I can remember the answer to, it has a potentially shameful thing that I see if I still feel bad about. Each time I look at one, as well as marking it correct to the exte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uCuf37HyP8efdgdmY/what-is-food-like |
# 100 Tips for a Better Life
(Cross-posted from my [blog](https://ideopunk.com/2020/12/22/100-tips-for-a-better-life/))
The other day I made an advice thread based on [Jacobian’s](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HJeD6XbMGEfcrx3mD/100-ways-to-live-better) from last year! If you know a source for one of these, shou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7hFeMWC6Y5eaSixbD/100-tips-for-a-better-life |
# TAI Safety Bibliographic Database
*Authors: Jess Riedel and Angelica Deibel*
[Cross-posted to EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S7x3ztfd9h8ux68wN/tai-safety-bibliographic-database)
In this post we present the first public version of our bibliographic database of research on the safety of transfo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4DegbDJJiMX2b3EKm/tai-safety-bibliographic-database |
# An appeal for vitamin D supplementation as a prophylactic for coronaviruses and influenza and a simple evolutionary theory for why this is plausible.
I'd like to bring home a case for vitamin D as a probable prophylactic for seasonal respiratory viruses like influenza or coronaviruses. Medical authorities already ad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jdsioB4vPzN5zW4LG/an-appeal-for-vitamin-d-supplementation-as-a-prophylactic |
# Wholehearted choices and “morality as taxes”
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
In Peter Singer’s [classic thought experiment](https://personal.lse.ac.uk/robert49/teaching/mm/articles/Singer_1972Famine.pdf), you can save a drowning child, but only by ruining your clothes. Singer’s a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lm7cQXTwvZTbMB3fT/wholehearted-choices-and-morality-as-taxes |
# Debate update: Obfuscated arguments problem
This is an update on the work on AI Safety via Debate that we previously wrote about [here](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Br4xDbYu4Frwrb64a/writeup-progress-on-ai-safety-via-debate-1).
**Authors and Acknowledgements**
The researchers on this project were Elizabet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PJLABqQ962hZEqhdB/debate-update-obfuscated-arguments-problem |
# Second Solstice** (Europe)
***still not actually Solstice*
We'll be doing a second running of the online Solstice ceremony this Saturday, this time more European-Timezone-Friendly.
. The post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mxXcPzpgGx4f8eK7v/2019-review-rewrite-seeking-power-is-often-robustly |
# Announcing AXRP, the AI X-risk Research Podcast
Happy holidays! Today, I’m launching AXRP (pronounced axe-urp), the AI X-risk Research Podcast. The episodes involve me interviewing a researcher about a paper they’ve written, talking about the ideas in the paper and why they matter. The first three guests are [Adam G... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NWi8ztKCbguBEAwdG/announcing-axrp-the-ai-x-risk-research-podcast-1 |
# New Bucket Brigade UI
After using the UI that the [Ritual Engine](https://github.com/dspeyer/ritualEngine) folks built for [Solstice](https://www.jefftk.com/p/secular-solstice-2020), I was feeling a bit embarrassed with how awkward and confusing stand-alone Bucket Brigade was:
[![](https://www.jefftk.com/bucket-bri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hpCDitDB8fSEnjsQR/new-bucket-brigade-ui |
# MIRI: 2020 Updates and Strategy
Highlights from MIRI's year-end strategy update:
* MIRI executive director Nate Soares reports that the "[new research directions](https://intelligence.org/2018/11/22/2018-update-our-new-research-directions/)" we initiated [in 2017](https://intelligence.org/2017/04/30/2017-updates-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/behpTpTDEaxv9Jxwg/miri-2020-updates-and-strategy |
# Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Planning Attacks
This is a translation of Chapter 3 of *The Art of War* by Sunzi. No English sources were used.
---
> 孙子曰：夫用兵之法，
>
> 全国为上，破国次之，
>
> 全军为上，破军次之；
>
> 全旅为上，破旅次之；
>
> 全卒为上，破卒次之；
>
> 全伍为上，破伍次之。
- It is best to conquer a state whole rather than breaking it.
- It is best to conque... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/igo96EDpvMSKPspiM/sunzi-s-methods-of-war-planning-attacks |
# My favorite essays of life advice
I start each of my [weekly reviews](https://www.benkuhn.net/weekly/) by re-reading one of my favorite essays of life advice—a different one each week. It’s useful for a few different reasons:
* It helps me get into the right reflective frame of mind.
* The best essays are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zMmQdob3eFfeMh7D3/my-favorite-essays-of-life-advice |
# Open Christmas card to my mother
Dear Mama,
Happy Christmas!
Rather than be so bold as to give you a further object to take care of, I gathered for you a c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PdxXck9haw7jT2Bc4/open-christmas-card-to-my-mother |
# Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
***UPDATE 7/21/2021:** As you doubtless know at this point, it was not over. Given the visibility of this post, I'm going to note here at the top that the prediction of a potential large wave of infections between March and May did not happen, no matter what ultimately happens wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHtwDXy63BsLkQx4n/covid-12-24-we-re-f-ed-it-s-over |
# The First Sample Gives the Most Information
*I originally heard this point made by Ben Pace in Episode 126 of* [*the Bayesian Conspiracy Podcast*](http://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2020/12/126-lesswrong-2-0-and-books/)*. Ben claimed that he learned this from the book* [*How to Measure Anything*](https://hubbardre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTwW3QLptTQKuyRXx/the-first-sample-gives-the-most-information |
# TAPs for Tutoring
# Introduction
[Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/11/09/ars-longa-vita-brevis/):
> Architects. Teachers. Teachers of teachers, but the art of teaching teaching is much the same as the art of teaching. Three levels is enough. Though the levels have to mix. The teacher who trains th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mrXhxpSvZnzNrEjYE/taps-for-tutoring |
# Epistemology Volume of "A Map That Reflects the Territory" Set - My Personal Commentary
Intro
-----
This post compiles my personal comments on the Epistemology book from the Lesswrong 2018 bookset. I put almost no effort into making it legible or relevant to anyone else.
[A sketch of good communication](https://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PWvJt88cvwGcCNEWo/epistemology-volume-of-a-map-that-reflects-the-territory-set |
# The medical test paradox: Can redesigning Bayes rule help?
A great coverage of one of my favorite Youtuber's of the (on LessWrong) classical reformulation of Bayes rule in terms of odds instead of probabilities. I expect to link a bunch of people to this, in particular if they get stuck reading [Eliezer's intuitive ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7kCsWf4dwLCgxPLMq/the-medical-test-paradox-can-redesigning-bayes-rule-help |
# Operationalizing compatibility with strategy-stealing
_Thanks to Noa Nabeshima and Kate Woolverton for helpful comments and feedback._
# Defining optimization power
One of Eliezer's old posts which I think has stood the test of time the best is his “[Measuring Optimization Power](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q4... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WwJdaymwKq6qyJqBX/operationalizing-compatibility-with-strategy-stealing |
# Defusing AGI Danger
This represents thinking about AGI safety done under mentorship by Evan Hubinger. Thanks also to Buck Shlegeris, Noa Nabeshima, Thomas Kwa, Sydney Von Arx and Jack Ryan for helpful discussion and comments.
# tl;dr
A common perspective to take with respect to AI safety to try and construct a sto... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSrfDWpHgFpzGRwJS/defusing-agi-danger |
# Netflix's "Start-Up" and sincere work dramatization
I'm in the middle of watching the show Start-Up on Netflix. I just finished episode 5 (some spoilers). Some background: Seo Dal-mi and Do-san are our main characters. They and Do-san's machine-learning-developer buddies are all on the same team at a hackathon. At t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hsJQFnW4TXSKfcwkY/netflix-s-start-up-and-sincere-work-dramatization |
# What trade should we make if we're all getting the new COVID strain?
If data keeps coming out in the next week confirming that [the new COVID strain](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CHtwDXy63BsLkQx4n/covid-12-24-we-re-f-ed-it-s-over) is 70% more transmissible, I think the modal outcome is that ~50% of Americans will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BMRHa9Akt8YbXRkEQ/what-trade-should-we-make-if-we-re-all-getting-the-new-covid |
# What are the unwritten rules of academia?
I came across [this tweet](https://twitter.com/x_lenc/status/1342224583223439360?s=20) a few minutes ago, and it got me thinking about how much of academia is gatekept by unwritten rules and rituals. Are there any good resources out there documenting such rules for outsider... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXFpsfkAX9RtdqBEP/what-are-the-unwritten-rules-of-academia |
# What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating?
I didn't get into this question in the weekly post. The answer does not seem obvious to me.
Eventually, it will be obvious either way. Either the strain will spread rapidly across many locations, or it won't. But we would like to get the informa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbuXXC9KvphmXQFLd/what-evidence-will-tell-us-about-the-new-strain-how-are-you |
# Moral intuitions are surprisingly variable
When building moral frameworks, moral intuitions are “our first and only source of data”. Further quoting the [Consequentalism FAQ](https://web.archive.org/web/20161115073538/http://raikoth.net/consequentialism.html):
> Searching for moral rules means searching for princip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/54cXkNNY46Jw3D8zz/moral-intuitions-are-surprisingly-variable |
# Great minds might not think alike
*\[Previously known as "Alike minds think great"\]*
**I.**
It is famously the case that almost everyone thinks they’re above average. Derek Sivers [writes](https://sive.rs/below-average):
> Ninety-four percent of professors say they are better-than-average teachers.
>
> Ninety p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Pa5NqtxHBkGuCh98G/great-minds-might-not-think-alike |
# Cognitive mistakes I've made about COVID-19
I think that COVID-19 has been an interesting test of rationality. We’ve faced a novel risk that was initially quite poorly characterized, with the mechanism of transmission unclear, as well as the risk of death or disability from catching it. As such, now that I’m in ‘wai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ouATTSRFqv9q3TfW3/cognitive-mistakes-i-ve-made-about-covid-19 |
# Some recommendations for aligning the decision to go to war with the public interest, from The Spoils of War
*The Spoils of War: Greed, Power, and the Conflicts that Made our Greatest Presidents* is about one particular principal agent problem. Through a number of case studies, the authors, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dy3ppq5D5uDg2MCeh/some-recommendations-for-aligning-the-decision-to-go-to-war |
# AGI Alignment Should Solve Corporate Alignment
*cross-posted from* [*my personal blog*](https://www.magfrump.net/blog/agi-alignment-should-solve-corporate-alignment)
I have an intuition that the gap between short term ML alignment problems and long term AGI alignment problems is smaller than usual.
Writing on the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6wvqbcCWB6rdkW4nu/agi-alignment-should-solve-corporate-alignment |
# The Good Try Rule
I didn't really try the [Zettelkasten Method](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NfdHG6oHBJ8Qxc26s/the-zettelkasten-method-1). I jotted a few notes on cards, complete with indexing designations, over the course of a day. Then the notecards migrated to a back corner of my desk, and eventually made thei... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MGWEztZY8GZ5im4x7/the-good-try-rule |
# Simultaneous Randomized Chess
[David](https://github.com/dchudz) and I played around with the idea of a simultaneous chess variant until we found one that seems balanced. Rules:
1. Both players secretly select a move.
1. If both can execute without conflict, both do.
2. If both can execute only in a spec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3vZFt4qbaHqbhTDp/simultaneous-randomized-chess |
# My Model of the New COVID Strain and US Response
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/12/26/seeing-the-new-covid-variant-smoke/), I will likely keep the post more up-to-date there than on here as my estimates change. This was also intended for a non-LW audience, since smarter people than me h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjm4GRmZmme4db8Cp/my-model-of-the-new-covid-strain-and-us-response |
# Martin Seligman’s “Authentic Happiness”
Martin E.P. Seligman ([W](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Seligman)) is a pioneer of “positive psychology” ([W](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_psychology)). His book *Authentic Happiness* (2002) is a pop-psych examination of how people can use positive psychology ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/65Hot23KRxjdNLfwi/martin-seligman-s-authentic-happiness |
# In software engineering, what are the upper limits of Language-Based Security?
Given the most security-amenable language you know, or that you could imagine building (or given some tools and processes that change the qualities of an existing language), by what proportion could we reduce the incidence rate of major s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HnJvMYaLfFoyqbsff/in-software-engineering-what-are-the-upper-limits-of |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 11
Luna closed Professor Gilderoy Lockhart's office door behind her.
"I thought our next interview wasn't until Friday," Professor Lockhart said.
"You-Know-Who is alive. He transferred his soul to Harry Potter twelve years ago. I know because both of their real names... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qz4k8RWACLmNgtc3a/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-11 |
# Asking For Help
### **Introduction**
I really suck at asking other people for help. I find it very anxiety inducing and aversive to think about. It sits at the intersection of a bunch of biases I have. Some part of me is convinced that I can do _everything_ myself - that it is weakness, or being a burden to ask... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YHRyt3NWHp4z3EAFW/asking-for-help |
# The Perversity of High Standards
**Concept**
A rational agent will follow a standard where the benefit he receives (or disbenefit he avoids) from following that standard, is less than the cost of following that standard.
In this way, raising standards can perversely **disincentivise** the behaviour those standard... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SZshL7p7XvHi58Hmi/the-perversity-of-high-standards |
# Dissolving the Problem of Induction
The **Problem of Induction**, first published by David Hume in 1739, is potentially a longstanding crack in the foundations of science. From LessWrong's [tag:Induction](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/induction) page:
> Modern views of induction state that any form of reasoning whe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c89N96R7nTse2RpNz/dissolving-the-problem-of-induction |
# Reviews as "How should this be improved to meet the bar?"
The LessWrong Review is a pretty big experiment, and I am still very much uncertain what the best form of reviewing is. We were pretty vague on how to review, listing these bullet points on topics a review should consider:
* How has this post been useful?
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7R8YGTxxLm5xtweRZ/reviews-as-how-should-this-be-improved-to-meet-the-bar |
# Review: LessWrong Best of 2018 – Epistemology
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2020/12/26/lesswrong-2018-epistemology/). Some of this post is relevant mostly to readers of my blog who aren't LessWrongers, but you may still be interested in my general thoughts about the essays, the book as an a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kphmLhQKPQBreq4Py/review-lesswrong-best-of-2018-epistemology |
# Uninformed Elevation of Trust
*I don't know if there is a standard name for this phenomenon (other than the related Gell-Mann amnesia effect, e.g. "The Sequences are great, except in my area of expertise, where they are terrible.").*
Here is the gist: **we trust the data as much as we trust the source, regardless o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQLZLFZEwLpRzFLdw/uninformed-elevation-of-trust |
# Infinite possibilities
Naively, for instance from the perspective of me as a child, it seems like a person has vastly many possible options at each moment, leading out in every direction, where many of them surely lead to amazing things, and thus it should be very easy to have an incredibly great life and make a hug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oGEHe4YtxZWRzcBRF/infinite-possibilities |
# Would the Real Economy Please Stand Up
*More-or-less an exegesis of* [*The Manual Economy*](https://grandunifiedempty.com/2020/08/07/the-manual-economy/)*. Warning: I am not an economist; this is speculative. Cross-posted from* [*Grand, Unified, Empty*](https://grandunifiedempty.com/2020/12/28/would-the-real-economy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YqTs94cQ8Rwt4BrFF/would-the-real-economy-please-stand-up |
# Choosing the right ask for a context
There are multiple ways of asking another person to engage in an action. Many people don't reflect about the different kinds of asks, use the asks that their cultural conditioning dictates and don't get what they want. They might stay silent because they don't want to inconvenien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5d2njNTPoTkun4y23/choosing-the-right-ask-for-a-context |
# Where are the post-COVID complainers?
Assumption: COVID immunity lasts a long time, because that's how diseases work, and this is the case for 95+% of people who get COVID or a COVID vaccine.
20% of the United States has had COVID (13-30% per https://covid19-projections.com/) and presumed immune. Even if we conserv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qD2w7KL45WTeoQCxw/where-are-the-post-covid-complainers |
# Chain Breaking
This is a rationality technique I’ve been experimenting with. Thank you to Jack Ryan, Thomas Kwa, Sydney Von Arx, Noa Nabeshima, and Kyle Scott for helping me refine the method.
# Algorithm
1. Pick something that has happened before that you would prefer not to happen again.
1. Examples includ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dWE7vYaoANTYFrvGj/chain-breaking |
# Morality as "Coordination", vs "Do-Gooding"
*Reworked version of a* [*shortform comment*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jL7uDE5oH4HddYq4u/shortform?commentId=jZ9GRSdrgJyu8deDc). *This is still not the optimal version of this post but it's the one I had time to re-publish.*
I've spent the past few years trying to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsHgyC4b2PsE3QyxL/morality-as-coordination-vs-do-gooding |
# Vaccination with the EMH
**Part 1. Is "1,000 True Fans" reasonable?**
> To be a successful creator you don’t need millions. You don’t need millions of dollars or millions of customers, millions of clients or millions of fans. To make a living as a craftsperson, photographer, musician, designer, author, animator, ap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hbJSA39CHnMCFs2nL/vaccination-with-the-emh |
# Give it a google
I'm a programmer. In programming, people talk about how the ability to Google is such an important skill. No one knows everything. In practice, people are always looking things up and running into weird situations that they have to figure out.
That's not what this post is about. Not quite. This pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d6yNW5T6J9rtnGizc/give-it-a-google |
# Measuring up to incredible potential
Yesterday [I wrote](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2020/12/28/infinite-possibilities.html) that people often talk as if events are basically determined by people’s values and capabilities, ignoring the difficulty of figuring out which opportunities to take, or even noticing op... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwch7N5wYTkiM7y9E/measuring-up-to-incredible-potential |
# The map and territory of NFT art
I’ve recently become aware of the world of non-fungible tokens.
Wikipedia puts it as:
> A non-fungible token (NFT) is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique; non-fungible tokens are thus not mutually interchangeable.
>
> Non-fungible tokens are use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JwJEyboKRjn2zFLeR/the-map-and-territory-of-nft-art |
# Why Neural Networks Generalise, and Why They Are (Kind of) Bayesian
Currently, we do not have a good theoretical understanding of how or why neural networks actually work. For example, we know that large neural networks are sufficiently expressive to compute almost any kind of function. Moreover, most functions that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YSFJosoHYFyXjoYWa/why-neural-networks-generalise-and-why-they-are-kind-of |
# Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Or: Why AI Takeover Might Happen Before GDP Accelerates, and Other Thoughts On What Matters for Timelines and Takeoff Speeds
============================================================================================================================
*\[Episte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aFaKhG86tTrKvtAnT/against-gdp-as-a-metric-for-timelines-and-takeoff-speeds |
# Dario Amodei leaves OpenAI
This is a linkpost for [https://openai.com/blog/organizational-update/](https://openai.com/blog/organizational-update/)
> “We are incredibly thankful to Dario for his contributions over the past four and a half years. We wish him and his co-founders all the best in their new project, and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7r8KjgqeHaYDzJvzF/dario-amodei-leaves-openai |
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