text stringlengths 300 320k | source stringlengths 52 154 |
|---|---|
# Book Review: On Intelligence by Jeff Hawkins (and Sandra Blakeslee)
[On Intelligence](https://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Understanding-Creation-Intelligent-Machines/dp/0805078533) is a book I've read as part of my quest to understand neuroscience. It attempts to develop a unified theory of the neocortex meant to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eLQQjviPv9h8jbf3S/book-review-on-intelligence-by-jeff-hawkins-and-sandra |
# AXRP Episode 1 - Adversarial Policies with Adam Gleave
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OkkBaPazl8&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conversatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8MZ72PYa3kRe4yRDD/axrp-episode-1-adversarial-policies-with-adam-gleave |
# AXRP Episode 2 - Learning Human Biases with Rohin Shah
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCF-KpRbHtk&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=2)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BJAcnMBHGua3tFKu5/axrp-episode-2-learning-human-biases-with-rohin-shah |
# AXRP Episode 3 - Negotiable Reinforcement Learning with Andrew Critch
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEwr00sVELI&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=3)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u7o7HtChnZ5x8SqvA/axrp-episode-3-negotiable-reinforcement-learning-with-andrew |
# Debate Minus Factored Cognition
[AI safety via debate](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/wo6NsBtn3WJDCeWsx/ai-safety-via-debate) has been, so far, associated with [Factored Cognition](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/EmDuGeRw749sD3GKd). There are good reasons for this. For one thing, Factored Cognition gives us a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a2NZr87sGYpXhzsth/debate-minus-factored-cognition |
# What Are Some Alternative Approaches to Understanding Agency/Intelligence?
Apparently, MIRI has [given up](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) on their current mainline approach to understanding agency and are trying to figure out what to do next. It seems like it might be worthwhile to c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ppmtsKiodNceMe3k6/what-are-some-alternative-approaches-to-understanding-agency |
# Desires as film posters
Sometimes I like to think of desires as like film posters. You come across them, and they urge you to do something, and present it in a certain way, and induce some inclination to do it. But film posters are totally different from films. If you like a film poster, you don’t have to try to see... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3bj7Ef48fMxWrwyWK/desires-as-film-posters |
# Collider bias as a cognitive blindspot?
Zack M. Davis [summarizes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4bkJTtG3s5d6v36k/stupidity-and-dishonesty-explain-each-other-away) collider bias as follows:
> The *explaining-away effect* (or, collider bias; or, Berkson's paradox) is a statistical phenomenon in which statisticall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZMP353rgkd7DQjrA8/collider-bias-as-a-cognitive-blindspot |
# Review Voting Thread
We're half way through the second annual review, and 121 posts have been nominated
We've had more than double the number of individual nominations than last year, but on reviews we're still playing catchup. Last year we had 118 reviews, yet this year we've only had 51 so far.
When there's so m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t7jHKjFX47dNfgLuj/review-voting-thread |
# Notes on notes on virtues
> “The characteristic feature of all ethics is to consider human life as a game that can be won or lost and to teach man the means of winning.” ―Simone de Beauvoir[^ly497qegshl]
**Summary:** The [Notes on Virtues sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xqgwpmwDYsn8osoje) shares my research i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zQi6T3ATa59KgaABc/notes-on-notes-on-virtues |
# "I Don't Know" (2020 Solstice Speech)
*This was my primary speech at this year's Solstice. I have meta-commentary on it I will share in a bit.*
The virtue of darkness is to face reality at its harshest, without looking away.
There are many forms of metaphorical darkness. But perhaps the most primal is to Not Know... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CufcsmsgDZ5viRHNd/i-don-t-know-2020-solstice-speech |
# Stock market hints for 2021 from past crashes
What might past crashes tell us about what stocks will do in 2021?
I [previously wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bDCXgqQuWG8yx5H55/post-crash-market-efficiency-1696-2020) about the short-term aftermaths of crashes, which - despite wild variation - average out lik... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tRqJWgXm57ZGdXBd3/stock-market-hints-for-2021-from-past-crashes |
# SpaceX will have massive impact in the next decade
*Epistemic status: Speculative thinking with a bunch of links to facts I found during my research.*
Elon Musk SpaceX already provides launch capabilities for larger satellites that are cheaper then the competition. While it costs [$165–220M](https://en.wikipedia.or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZZKFnsefeMh6psRb/spacex-will-have-massive-impact-in-the-next-decade |
# A Model of Ontological Development
Introduction
============
In this post I present a model of human psychological development based on increases in the structural complexity of ontology. Or more simply, it's a model about how human minds grow in terms of how complex their models of the world are. It breaks down de... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bm96XvWfgEc88esHv/a-model-of-ontological-development |
# One Year of Pomodoros
In December of 2019, I started recording how many pomodoros I did each day. I had no expectation that this would last a long time, but it's now been over a year! I've kept a spreadsheet of my daily pomodoros since then, and here's the graph. I did 2171 pomodoros between 2019-12-01 and 2020-12-2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AksEurnb73RCg9Dse/one-year-of-pomodoros-1 |
# And You Take Me the Way I Am
Mark Twain [wrote that](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9131-if-you-tell-the-truth-you-don-t-have-to-remember) honesty means you don't have to remember anything. But it also means you don't have to worry about making mistakes.
If you said something terrible that made everyone decide th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8B5DpBwMdNPxXfDrM/and-you-take-me-the-way-i-am |
# 2021 New Year Optimization Puzzles
I was asked to host a puzzle corner for the [New Year Eve's Ultra Bash](https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PwinnkXkK2R7fcjdr/lesswrong-ea-new-year-s-ultra-party), which would be a Schelling time/place for people to talk about and solve puzzles together. For the event, I decided to ma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NuWDeDmBkokTKe6n6/2021-new-year-optimization-puzzles |
# Covid 12/31: Meet the New Year
[Same as the old year.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q)
It’s [deja vu all over again](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DDKJsrWKnM&ab_channel=MaxBasten). It’s not good.
We’re focused on political fights over priority and concerns someone might jump the line, and took off... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n8PEMJNrns4d3FjY5/covid-12-31-meet-the-new-year |
# [AN #131]: Formalizing the argument of ignored attributes in a utility function
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k2sBrR4gJX9BNTuoa/an-131-formalizing-the-argument-of-ignored-attributes-in-a |
# Anti-Aging: State of the Art
Aging is a problem that ought to be solved, and most Less Wrongers recognize this. However, few members of the community seem to be aware of the current state of the anti-aging field, and how close we are to developing effective anti-aging therapies. As a result, there is a much greater... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RcifQCKkRc9XTjxC2/anti-aging-state-of-the-art |
# Crowd-Forecasting Covid-19
Forecasting is hard and many forecasting models [do not do a particularly good job](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/15/scientists-want-predict-covid-19s-long-term-trajectory-heres-why-they-cant/). The question is: can humans do better? And if so, how can we best use that? T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CiXsE3N77sXi95nvD/crowd-forecasting-covid-19 |
# Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 12
"*Stupefy,*" Professor Lockhart said.
Lord Voldemort spat a verbal non-somatic counterspell. He dodged too, just in case.
"Do not do that again," said Lord Voldemort.
Lord Voldemort cast another non-somatic spell. Animated skeleton hands grew from his wrists. He ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FCMqi6NZDXENjxMKf/luna-lovegood-and-the-chamber-of-secrets-part-12 |
# Some end-of-year media recommendations
Books
=====
I've read about 150 books over the past five or so years, after a decade-long dry spell where 95% of the reading I did was for school. These are the ~20% of those books that have really made an impact on me, that I've continued to think about even long after finish... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pC6hMh6QSuf2YFAme/some-end-of-year-media-recommendations |
# Predictions for 2021
Just as [I did last year](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2019/12/29/predictions-for-2020/), I have some probabilistic predictions for 2021. In January 2022 I will return to grade them, just as in a week or two I’ll grade my 2020 predictions. This year the predictions fall into four categories:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bBJbfZiBmMrBxD3p5/predictions-for-2021 |
# AI Alignment, Philosophical Pluralism, and the Relevance of Non-Western Philosophy
*This is an extended transcript of* [*the talk I gave at EAGxAsiaPacific 2020*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbMp4pFVwnU)*. In the talk, I present a somewhat critical take on how AI alignment has grown as a field, and how, from my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jS2iiDPqMvZ2tnik2/ai-alignment-philosophical-pluralism-and-the-relevance-of |
# Mistakes to want
The end of the year is a classic time for reflecting on the year. And a classic part of reflecting is noticing mistakes you have made. I admit that I don’t relish this: having made mistakes, admitting to them, and looking at them further all pain me, and I find it hard to call things mistakes. It’s ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bff6Z8sB857NXQCKL/mistakes-to-want |
# Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
**Highlights**
--------------
* Nigh unbeatable forecaster gives [85% chance that the newly identified COVID-19 strain is >30% more transmissible](https://twitter.com/juan_cambeiro/status/1344058829823238145).
* Prediction markets and betting platforms mostly resolved the e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fxSvvooM3xojHLL7n/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020 |
# Empiricism in NLP : Test Operate Text Exit (TOTE)
*Epistemic status: Presentation of an established technique and history. I learned most of my NLP knowledge from Chris Mulzer who’s one of Bandler’s top students. The Origins of Neuro-Linguistic Programming by John Grinder and Frank Pucelik is my main source for the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2tzhKqxb5jpMEsWj/empiricism-in-nlp-test-operate-text-exit-tote |
# Thoughts on being mortal
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](http://handsandcities.com/))
(Content warning: discussion of death and intense pain)
This post is an amalgam of thoughts about death, prompted centrally by Atul Gawande’s book [*Being Mortal*](https://www.amazon.com/Being-Mortal-Illness-Medicine-Matter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7BctDNyhfwNTCAqYq/thoughts-on-being-mortal |
# Reflections on Larks’ 2020 AI alignment literature review
*This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. It could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community.*
---
Larks has once again [evaluated](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/K7Z87me... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uEo4Xhp7ziTKhR6jq/reflections-on-larks-2020-ai-alignment-literature-review |
# Overall numbers won't show the English strain coming
*\[Epistemic status: half-baked thoughts that might be wrong. Apologies if this point has already been made.\]*
*\[Edit:* [*here's*](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2021/01/03/overall-numbers-wont-show-the-english-strain-coming/) *a version of this post that is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9jHwiXMvctJfWBCtm/overall-numbers-won-t-show-the-english-strain-coming |
# Review: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I suspect my mind of taking its observations of a person’s physical energy and dexterity as strong evidence about their mental quickness and clarity.
The existence and the wrongness of this presumption were brought into relief for me by reading Jean-Dominique Bauby’s _The D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GSeXRwtz2LBvM9geQ/review-the-diving-bell-and-the-butterfly |
# Data about the new coronavirus variant (B.1.1.7) from Denmark
I noted on Zvi's recent post (found here [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbuXXC9KvphmXQFLd/what-evidence-will-tell-us-about-the-new-strain-how-are-you#GxzkzNdYfTLjmQEAm](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbuXXC9KvphmXQFLd/what-evidence-will-tell-us-about-t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qtett2vv34jhBZkCw/data-about-the-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-7-from-denmark |
# Feature request: personal notes about other users
Feature use scenario:
* I hover the mouse pointer over a username
* The small box that appears (the one that currently shows basic stats: when they joined, how many posts they have written, etc.) contains also a textarea field
* Whatever I write in that field ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RPECYZAMrprpLwxSA/feature-request-personal-notes-about-other-users |
# Are we all misaligned?
The orthogonality thesis separates intelligence and goals, constraining the notion of intelligence to instrumental rationality and allowing for any combination of general intelligence and a goal system. And the other way around, such a description should apply to any possible agency. For any a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lshuoww97Loy2h7kw/are-we-all-misaligned-1 |
# Bucket Brigade: Video
The biggest pain point with Bucket Brigade has been that you generally wanted to be running a video call in parallel. You kept needing to switch windows, and you needed to remember to mute and unmute in the call at the beginning and end of each song. [Solstice](https://www.jefftk.com/p/secular-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aBj6mcQKq5kfS5pkB/bucket-brigade-video |
# Don't Use Your Favorite Weapon
Why your favorite arguments aren't most likely to land
==========================================================
If forced to condense my political ideology onto the usual spectrum, I’ve always been left of center. I think that the government can and should work to improve wellbe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mzw5a2GDpLHWfzhP5/don-t-use-your-favorite-weapon |
# On writing like a butterfly
I thought it would be interesting to try to write my [review](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2021/01/01/review-the-diving-bell-and-the-butterfly.html) of [_the Diving Bell and the Butterfly_](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Diving_Bell_and_the_Butterfly) in my head without setting pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L24ZsGR97kHnuXzbS/on-writing-like-a-butterfly |
# Retrospective on Teaching Rationality Workshops
_TL;DR: I organised a series of afternoon applied rationality workshops for the Cambridge Effective Altruism group based on some core CFAR classes. These went much better than I expected them to, and seem to have added long-term value to participants. My goal in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QoW6bgpsRCD7wrwLy/retrospective-on-teaching-rationality-workshops |
# Mental subagent implications for AI Safety
*Meta: I wrote this draft a couple of years ago, but never managed to really proceed down this line of thought to a conclusion. I figured it would be better off placed in public for feedback.*
Assume, for the sake of argument, that breaking a human agent down into distinct... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/datp9aq4DAzEP8taM/mental-subagent-implications-for-ai-safety |
# Bets, Bonds, and Kindergarteners
Bets and bonds are tools for handling different epistemic states and levels of trust. Which makes them a great fit for negotiating with small children!
A few weeks ago Anna (4y) wanted to play with some packing material. It looked very messy to me, I didn't expect she would clean it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoHcgTvyxdorAMquE/bets-bonds-and-kindergarteners |
# Notes on Attention
This post examines the virtue of **attention** and its facets like awareness, discernment, mindfulness, presence, focus, and concentration.
I mean to explore what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than expressing my own opinions, though I’ve been selective about what I found int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/35eEHAXis3jMqETod/notes-on-attention |
# The despair of normative realism bot
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
This post is about a certain type of normative realism, and a related type of despair (I don’t think “despair” is quite the right word, but I haven’t found a better one). My aim is to question an assumption unde... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wypmaDatqRt8AExmu/the-despair-of-normative-realism-bot |
# Multi-dimensional rewards for AGI interpretability and control
*Update August 2021:* Re-reading this post, I continue to think this is a good and important idea, and I was very happy to learn after I wrote it that what I had in mind here is really a plausible, viable thing to do, even given the cost and performance ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Lj9QXcqkcuR4iHJ7Q/multi-dimensional-rewards-for-agi-interpretability-and |
# The Sense-Making Web
I want to attempt to convey the sense of what it feels like to be in a particular scene. Sadly, blogposts are a poor medium for this, but I think it's important, so I'll try my best. In particular, I'll be focusing on the (vaguely defined) Sensemaking scene. I'm honestly surprised that very litt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vKDAXqyab5KRApfvE/the-sense-making-web |
# Open & Welcome Thread - January 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are inv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AbLjnP3Xa88DgzNLk/open-and-welcome-thread-january-2021 |
# You are Dissociating (probably)
You are probably dissociating all the time and don't realize it. Let's look at just what I mean by this bold claim.
***Disclaimer:** I'm not a medical professional, and although I'm talking about "dissociation" here I definitely don't mean to give medical explanation or advice about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaqvPtT4uQfseWf2K/you-are-dissociating-probably |
# What do we *really* expect from a well-aligned AI?
I'm quite new to the AI alignment problem - have read something like 20-30 articles about it on LW and around, aiming for the most upvoted - and have a feeling that there is a fundamental problem that is mostly ignored. I wouldn't be surprised if this feeling was wr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8uoGpYy2ScM6Yrmh/what-do-we-really-expect-from-a-well-aligned-ai |
# What I Learned From Running a Pol.is Conversation
Try Things
==========
A couple weeks ago, I asked around facebook and discord for people willing to test out [Polis](http://pol.is/), an interactive survey tool.
Polis appealed to my aesthetic. It hosts a conversation where participants submit twitter-size comm... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tPipdsvsq8CHTamZ3/what-i-learned-from-running-a-pol-is-conversation |
# Predictions for 2021 (+ a template for yours)
How do you make new year's predictions?
1. **Assemble a list of predictions about what you think will happen in the next year.**
2. **Assign probabilities to each item.** I follow the approach of picking a limited number of probabilities (51%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%) an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cPuGmXY494zEskaH5/predictions-for-2021-a-template-for-yours-2 |
# Ways to be more agenty?
Akrasia is not really good. Being more of an agent is pretty good.
Are there actual ways to become more of an agent? Especially lesser-known ways.
~~Dumb, expensive, and dangerous ideas only please~~. Assume I'm looking for answers *besides* "sleep more" or "drink water" or "you don't *real... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2EhC5wgmK2Am6xLL3/ways-to-be-more-agenty |
# Intended enjoyment
I am sometimes unsure what is meant to be enjoyed in things, for instance the short story [_The Gioconda Smile_](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2021/01/04/giaconda-smile.html), or _In the mood for love_ which [people](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/sep/13/100-best-films-movies-of-the-21s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TgK7F5BFj5n9Trn9M/intended-enjoyment |
# Why is loss of muscle cells not considered one of the hallmarks of aging?
When muscles go in adults it's due to individual muscle cells getting bigger and not due to increase in muscle cells. It's [generally believed](https://biology.stackexchange.com/a/23885/152) that no new muscle cells get produced in human adult... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u5DXNMhjvWxegt4dw/why-is-loss-of-muscle-cells-not-considered-one-of-the |
# The National Defense Authorization Act Contains AI Provisions
A bunch of laws about AI were recently passed by Congress in the US.
[The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act) is the law which funds and organizes the Department of Defense of the U... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Nuw7mLc6DjRY4mwa/the-national-defense-authorization-act-contains-ai |
# The Pointers Problem: Clarifications/Variations
I've recently had several conversations about John Wentworth's post [The Pointers Problem](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gQY6LrTWJNkTv8YJR/the-pointers-problem-human-values-are-a-function-of-humans). I think there is some confusion about this post, because there are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Zn4BwgsiPFhdB6h8/the-pointers-problem-clarifications-variations |
# Links for Dec 2020
Nov post: [Facebook,](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1341047802903626&id=100009952574823) [LW post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCdGhmoTFewSbgroK/links-for-nov-2020)
Based on feedback, I’ll put a few favorites in the front, and the rest gets categorized as usual. For severa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/avqqNvhiZPkq5wQJW/links-for-dec-2020 |
# DALL-E by OpenAI
This is a linkpost for [https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/)
My own take: Cool, not super surprising given GPT-3 and Image GPT. I look forward to seeing what a bigger version of this would do, so that we could get a sense of how much it improves with scale. I'm especial... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nari28E45ZqaWoEhG/dall-e-by-openai |
# 2019 Review Coworking Party [Wed 7pm PT]
There's one more week left in The Review Phase of the LW 2019 Review. After that, we start voting.
Have you been vaguely meaning to do some reviewing but not got around to it? Are you a little intimidated with how to get started but could use a fun social event to help get g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/dHxPBpFPtbtwZxk2y/2019-review-coworking-party-wed-7pm-pt |
# Cryonics signup guide #1: Overview
This is the introduction to a sequence on signing up for cryonics. In the coming posts I will lay out what you need to do, concretely and in detail. **This sequence is intended for people who already think signing up for cryonics is a good idea** but are putting it off because they... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2cYebKxNp47PapHTL/cryonics-signup-guide-1-overview |
# Grokking illusionism
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
A number of people I know are illusionists about consciousness: that is, they think that the way consciousness seems to us involves some fundamental misrepresentation. On an extreme version of this view (which [Frankish (2016)]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SJjaWcMKtcdM3FW9u/grokking-illusionism |
# Linguistic Freedom
One of the first things you notice when you start digging into the definitions of words is that they are much more ambiguous than they seem. Chairs are an excellent example as at first glance they don't seem ambiguous at all. But then, what if we ask if a tree stump is a chair if someone sits on i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XZAGujFAcX6nweELL/linguistic-freedom |
# Centrally planned war
We watched _Dunkirk_, and wondered how many military deaths are for reasons more of logistics than of facing the enemy. Probably lots - we have heard that war is made of colossal logistical feats, so probably they often fail, and often lives depend on them.
(Imagine organizing a party with hun... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9qMXsBcYfYmzrWvjz/centrally-planned-war |
# [AN #132]: Complex and subtly incorrect arguments as an obstacle to debate
\[AN #132\]: Complex and subtly incorrect arguments as an obstacle to debate Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world
| \\| \\\\\\| \\\\\\\\\\\\\\| [View this email in y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/huNvfttDpxCApC3xZ/an-132-complex-and-subtly-incorrect-arguments-as-an-obstacle |
# Fourth Wave Covid Toy Modeling
Epistemic Status: Highly speculative. I threw this together quickly, and wrote this to document how I went about it. This is an attempt to create a first toy model, so others can error correct and improve, and upon which less-toy models can hopefully be built. You can see the spreadshe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LPAyuxxsuFBocRxmw/fourth-wave-covid-toy-modeling |
# Review of 'But exactly how complex and fragile?'
I've thought about (concepts related to) the fragility of value [quite](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/7CdoznhJaLEKHwvJW/p/w6BtMqKRLxG9bNLMr#Objective_vs_value_specific_catastrophes) [a bit](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xts5wm3akbemk4pDa/non-obstruction-a-simple-conce... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r6p5cqT6aWYGCYHJx/review-of-but-exactly-how-complex-and-fragile |
# The Rube Goldberg Machine of Morality
**1\. Mathematics and morality**
> *One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic. - Joseph Stalin*
To a mathematician, it's equally obvious that 1 + 1 = 2 and that 3 * 5 = 15.
A kid might treat 3 * 5 as a repeated addition problem. The answer isn't obvious, and eve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7dyGFSqG8xuNoodRK/the-rube-goldberg-machine-of-morality |
# Lessons from “The Book of My Life”
_This is a cross-post from my [personal blog](https://benmgarfinkel.wordpress.com/2020/12/27/lessons-from-the-book-of-my-life/). You might enjoy it if you're interested in progress studies or intellectual history._
The Italian Renaissance, like nearly every other time and place, i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9YDk52NPrfq7nqLvd/lessons-from-the-book-of-my-life |
# COVID-19: home stretch and fourth wave Q&A
*Robby Bensinger wrote this post and shared it in a private Facebook group, but it seemed good to also have it on LessWrong. Note that I have substantial disagreements with the current content of this document, since it currently seems to advise far too risk-averse of a str... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Ej6CPRCKt9bNemsn/covid-19-home-stretch-and-fourth-wave-q-and-a |
# A dozen habits that work for me
I'm just proud and I want to share. I've read [Do Life Hacks Ever Reach Fixation](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/03/03/do-life-hacks-ever-reach-fixation/) and [Other Optimizing](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/other-optimizing), but maybe a couple of these will end up helping someone.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tsM57SjDvBm2Kawso/a-dozen-habits-that-work-for-me |
# Grading my 2020 predictions
*\[Edit: when I copy-pasted from my blog, the colors didn't show up, and I'm not sure how to make them show up; sorry!\]*
In December 2019, I [made 132 probabilistic predictions](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2019/12/29/predictions-for-2020/) for 2020. As promised, I’ve come back to e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8uFmEEeLePpRo8xo8/grading-my-2020-predictions |
# Evening drawing
This evening I became tempted by a YouTube video of an artist painting a portrait, which led me to be tempted by another such video, and then more of them, and then by one of these artists’ websites, and then by my own pencils and paper. (I did not become tempted by YouTube videos advertising breakin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fe5W7PrFGwmfHg6Ek/evening-drawing |
# Eight claims about multi-agent AGI safety
There are quite a few arguments about how interactions between multiple AGIs affect risks from AGI development. I’ve identified at least eight distinct but closely-related claims which it seems worthwhile to disambiguate. I’ve split them up into four claims about the process... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSAJdi99XmqftqXXq/eight-claims-about-multi-agent-agi-safety |
# Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns
[I’ll summarize everything up front.](https://youtu.be/MnQaYGJ5oYs)
Might as well [get on with it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXE8LdXzeHM&ab_channel=lonjil).
Let’s do the numbers.
The Numbers
-----------
Predictions
-----------
Prediction last week: 14.3% positive rat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i6doyTk6kHkGyKybq/covid-1-7-the-fire-of-a-thousand-suns |
# How to Write Like Kaj Sotala
Since I started quarantine in late February, I've been trying to learn the skill of modelling implicit skills and knowledge. Over that time, I've interviewed nearly 20 people and learned one specific implict theory or skill that they use. Many of those people in the rationality and post... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ndHmbz9tyEgc88oiP/how-to-write-like-kaj-sotala |
# Change My View: Incumbent religions still get too much leeway
In the past few years I've gone from being almost entirely dismissive of religion to being much more uncertain and equivocal. In particular, I've become much warier of implicitly judging The Old Ways against modern conditions and assumptions. These change... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TZd2KLrZReDgRMsmy/change-my-view-incumbent-religions-still-get-too-much-leeway |
# Austin Meetup: Caplan and Hanson
This part of our return to in-person meetups, now once per month. As per the health recommendations, we will maintain social distancing. Please finish food and drinks before coming. And wear a mask.
This time, we might be joined by Robin Hanson (of [Overcoming Bias](https://over... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/EBDMNRTEXseTmhXyd/austin-meetup-caplan-and-hanson |
# What's up with the Targeting Aging with Metformin (TAME) trial?
It seems that the [official website](https://www.afar.org/tame-trial) of the trial suggest that they are sill seeking donations to start the trial. On the other hand, it's [reported](https://www.longevity.technology/worlds-first-anti-aging-trial-gets-gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBr7ZAYMZAm6BCuyz/what-s-up-with-the-targeting-aging-with-metformin-tame-trial |
# Thoughts on personal identity
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
Recently, in an effort to clarify my views about personal identity, I looked back at the discussion of the topic in Part III of Derek Parfit’s *Reasons and Persons*. This post is an attempt to grok Parfit’s view more f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BDYMwApazLm52WK5r/thoughts-on-personal-identity |
# Conversation, event loops, and error handling
My previous post [Debugging the student](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SfsZAitvivsTFBQnX/debugging-the-student) got me thinking about conversations. Particularly conversations where one person is trying to explain things to the other person. In that post I talked about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Msc6ASRMoAQsPrQif/conversation-event-loops-and-error-handling |
# Condition-directedness
In chess, you can’t play by picking a desired end of the game and backward chaining to the first move, because there are vastly more possible chains of moves than your brain can deal with, and the good ones are few. Instead, chess players steer by heuristic senses of the worth of situations. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qGruLe9p4SxDc8fbA/condition-directedness |
# Why the outside view suggests that longevity escape velocity is a long time away and cryonics is a much more feasible option for those alive today: signal-boosting a comment by Calm-Meet9916 on Reddit
*Disclaimer*: I strongly support anti-aging research. It's obviously a great idea. And, like a lot of other cryonici... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wutu8474PPfT5sS9/why-the-outside-view-suggests-that-longevity-escape-velocity |
# Science in a High-Dimensional World
Claim: the usual explanation of the Scientific Method is missing some key pieces about how to make science work well in a high-dimensional world (e.g. our world). Updating our picture of science to account for the challenges of dimensionality gives a different model for how to do ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4XRjPocTprL4L8tmB/science-in-a-high-dimensional-world |
# Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception
**Followup to**: [Where to Draw the Boundaries?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries)
_There is an important difference between having a utility function defined over a statistical model's performance against specific real-w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception |
# Weekend Review Bash: Guided review writing, Forecasting and co-working, in EU and US times
This is the final weekend of the review phase of the [LessWrong 2019 Review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QFBEjjAvT6KbaA3dY/the-lesswrong-2019-review). There's been more than 100 reviews written; but more than 60 posts are ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ecCGzq7GccpxmMhSw/weekend-review-bash-guided-review-writing-forecasting-and-co |
# What currents of thought on LessWrong do you want to see distilled?
The question is inspired by a few comments and a question I have seen recently. The first is a [discussion in the 2019 Review](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QFBEjjAvT6KbaA3dY/the-lesswrong-2019-review?commentId=AtaBeitpM4Gh3wJYS) post on the subje... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/As8x5dh6crRQdyPqx/what-currents-of-thought-on-lesswrong-do-you-want-to-see |
# Johannes Kepler, Sun Worshipper
*This is crosspostd from a late-night whimsical Facebook post, maybe should be a shortform post.*
> Individual scientists embrace a new paradigm for all sorts of reasons and usually for several at once. Some of these reasons—for example, the sun worship that helped make Kepler a Cope... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yBXtBCH9xoitniTX5/johannes-kepler-sun-worshipper |
# Credence polls for 26 claims from the 2019 Review
This post is a whirlwind tour of claims made in the LessWrong 2019 Review. In some cases, the claim is literally quoted from the post. In others, I have tried operationalising it into something more falsifiable. For example:
[Book Review: The Secret of Our Success](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LnpGZNwLc7uCDBXfG/credence-polls-for-26-claims-from-the-2019-review |
# Thoughts on Mustachianism
I've always been a [Mustachian](https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/). Recently I've been noticing myself having some diverging thoughts about it. But despite those diverging thoughts, there's still a lot of core ideas that I really identify with.
Anyway, here are some assorted thoughts.
## H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BFciGaECgNCHe6KnR/thoughts-on-mustachianism |
# Practical post on 4 #ProRep methods (Proportional Representation)
Context
=======
I have written a series of longer posts about voting theory: a [general primer](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D6trAzh6DApKPhbv4/a-voting-theory-primer-for-rationalists), [single-winner pathologies](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4v... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v9hhEiQJFbEEuJyKv/practical-post-on-4-prorep-methods-proportional |
# The Case for a Journal of AI Alignment
When you have some nice research in AI Alignment, where do you publish it? Maybe your research fits with a ML or AI conference. But some papers/research are hard sells to traditional venues: things like [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820), [Logic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hNNM6gP5yZcHffmpD/the-case-for-a-journal-of-ai-alignment |
# [U.S. specific] PPP: free money for self-employed & orgs (time-sensitive)
*\[*[*cross-posted from EA forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DF75ggNhW9Rf3JQ9Y/u-s-specific-ppp-free-money-for-self-employed-and-orgs-time)*\]*
PPP is the "paycheck protection program", a big US government giveaway to business... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z2QQm3ZnapS5AMEkx/u-s-specific-ppp-free-money-for-self-employed-and-orgs-time |
# Babble Thread
On LessWrong, we have a sort of hierarchy of posts:
1. Curated
2. Front Page
3. Personal Blog
4. Open Thread / Short Form
Here I'd like to experiment with a fifth: the Babble Thread.
What is babbling? [Babble](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/pC6DYFLPMTCbEwH8W/p/i42Dfoh4HtsCAfXxL) is the post that in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s2zyQ4Somk6LynCQj/babble-thread |
# Imitative Generalisation (AKA 'Learning the Prior')
Tl;dr
-----
We want to be able to supervise models with superhuman knowledge of the world and how to manipulate it. For this we need an overseer to be able to learn or access all the knowledge our models have, in order to be able to understand the consequences of ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JKj5Krff5oKMb8TjT/imitative-generalisation-aka-learning-the-prior-1 |
# What to do if you can't form any habits whatsoever?
A lot of LW posts are about making habits and routines, whether it's TAPs, making to-do lists or checklists automatic, overcoming akrasia, becoming more productive, or more.
As for me, I have ADHD and ASD. I don't think I've ever been able to form automatic habit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uepimrcHwLzuhK7Pa/what-to-do-if-you-can-t-form-any-habits-whatsoever |
# A different dictionary
I enjoyed James Somers [account](https://jsomers.net/blog/dictionary) (HT [Liron Shapira](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2020/12/19/thesauring.html#comment-5194868155)) of how Webster’s dictionary used to be much more beautiful than dictionaries today, for instance:
> _“…Flashing differs f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7yD6CCnbxeTSHj5i/a-different-dictionary |
# How should you go about valuing your time?
How much is your time worth? $5/hr? $10? $30? $100? [$1,000?](https://blog.asmartbear.com/value-time.html)
Whenever I ask myself that question, I notice that I am confused. Suppose you are some sort of consultant where you can sign on to some website and choose to work 1 h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C7BG97DMW4uCQShCN/how-should-you-go-about-valuing-your-time |
# Overconfidence
**SPOILER WARNING:** This post includes spoilers for *Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion* and *Code Geass: Lelouch of the Re;surrection*.
---
[According to Eliezar Yudkowsky](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/qqFS6Kw5fmPyzkLby), your thoughts should reflect reality. [According to Paul Graham](http://pau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJrpCJshBoaY6YS4L/overconfidence |
# 2020: Forecasting in Review.
This document contains a series of highlights about forecasting in 2020 which I have gathered after 10 months of writing a forecasting newsletter. I'll write one or two paragraphs for each point, and then list ideas which interested readers can follow up on. As such, this piece can be re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iwsDTqhMQ8EJbWa8t/2020-forecasting-in-review |
# Review of Soft Takeoff Can Still Lead to DSA
A few months after writing [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PKy8NuNPknenkDY74/soft-takeoff-can-still-lead-to-decisive-strategic-advantage) I realized that one of the key arguments was importantly flawed. I therefore recommend against inclusion in the 2019 revie... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P448hmmAeGepQDREs/review-of-soft-takeoff-can-still-lead-to-dsa |
# Prediction can be Outer Aligned at Optimum
This post argues that many prediction tasks are _outer aligned at optimum_. In particular, I think that the malignity of the universal prior should be treated as an inner alignment problem rather than an outer alignment problem. The main argument is entirely in the first s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3D2MGF2fZhWSNb7aw/prediction-can-be-outer-aligned-at-optimum |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.