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# Mini thoughts on mintheism
\[***Epistemic status:** Hunch in the form of a neologism. I've heard this idea**—**that I'm dubbing mintheism here**—**implied in several corners of the Internet. I want to give it a name and take a stab at why it's plausible. This post presupposes a connection between the decline in reli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i2essuKaWpCSWN8nG/mini-thoughts-on-mintheism |
# Avoid Unnecessarily Political Examples
One of the motivations for [You have about five words](http://lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words) was the post [Politics is the Mindkiller](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9weLK2AJ9JEt2Tt8f/politics-is-the-mind-killer). That post essentially makes f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bNAEBRWiKHG6mtQX8/avoid-unnecessarily-political-examples |
# The time I got really into poker
One time I decided it would be good to learn to play poker. I had probably learned to play some form of poker a couple of other times before, and forgotten. One way to play a game a lot is to play it with a computer rather than other people. An iPad turns Agricola from one of the slo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gEeBA35t6BTzqqtyF/the-time-i-got-really-into-poker |
# Transparency and AGI safety
Introduction
=============
**Transparency** is the problem of going inside the black box of an AI system and understanding exactly how it works, by tracking and understanding the processes in its internal state.
In this post, I’ll argue that making AI systems more transparent could be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QirLfXhDPYWCP8PK5/transparency-and-agi-safety |
# Group house norms really do seem toxic to many people.
Be careful about joining rationalist group houses. The environment is toxic to a lot of people and can lead to a ton of conflict. This seems important to say since a lot of people are considering returning to Berkley/TheBay.
This analysis is general and example... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tKxNSbaPG8iqmWyRD/group-house-norms-really-do-seem-toxic-to-many-people |
# D&D.Sci II: The Sorceror's Personal Shopper
The day’s task shows up in an envelope, and not in glowing purple letters emblazoned across the inside of your eyelids, which is usually a good sign. The owl that brought it looks on with equanimity as you read its master's message:
> *Hello,*
>
> *I hearde that you do o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y9FcNzWqczbfqcPQ3/d-and-d-sci-ii-the-sorceror-s-personal-shopper |
# Base rate of RCT from developing countries finding unexpected effects
The last few months I have been stumbling onto RCTs conducted in developing countries, with great results in treating Covid-19. The evaluated treatments seem apriori unlikely to generate these great results, e.g. this [gargling study](http://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNxRSdcdQFm6oiobx/base-rate-of-rct-from-developing-countries-finding |
# Review of 'Debate on Instrumental Convergence between LeCun, Russell, Bengio, Zador, and More'
*I* [*think*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6DuJxY8X45Sco4bS2/seeking-power-is-often-robustly-instrumental-in-mdps#A_note_on_terminology) *that 'robust instrumentality' is a more apt name for 'instrumental convergence.' ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZPEGLoWMN242Dob6g/review-of-debate-on-instrumental-convergence-between-lecun |
# A vastly faster vaccine rollout
When a traveler introduced smallpox to New York City in 1947, the city—and in particular its health commissioner, Israel Weinstein—apparently ran an epic vaccination campaign, reaching 5 million people in the first two weeks.^[1](#fn:1)^ That is, four hundred thousand vaccinations per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPyH3kxSzECAsM9bm/a-vastly-faster-vaccine-rollout |
# The True Face of the Enemy
Greetings! May I incarcerate you?
‘*What?’*
Don’t worry! You’ll get out soon! I’ll even do you a couple favours. How does… free lunches sound? What if everyone else there agreed to never use the phrase ‘incarcerated’? It’d hardly feel like you were being locked up. Fifteen years tops, I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q74jJCb9SFg2PSYCw/the-true-face-of-the-enemy |
# Zen and Rationality: Karma
*This is post 6/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.*
*In today's installment, I look at karma from a rationalist perspective.*
Karma is one of those ideas that is poorly understood both because it means different t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7NLoxJdbPDYkfyTqB/zen-and-rationality-karma |
# How much harder is it to revive a neuro-only cryonics patient?
**Format**: I choose the question format to allow other people to provide their own answer. I write my answer as a post (ie. in the description of the question) given I think it's the quality of a post. This is a norm I would personally like to see adopt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7HsxvoSAuZRbymawZ/how-much-harder-is-it-to-revive-a-neuro-only-cryonics |
# #2: Neurocryopreservation vs whole-body preservation
*This is post 2 of 10 in my* [*sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe) *on how to sign up for cryonics.*
Background
==========
There are currently two options for human cryopreservation: preserving the whole body, or preserving only the brain (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TZgdQ4ghND9FP3ocm/2-neurocryopreservation-vs-whole-body-preservation |
# Voting Phase for 2019 Review
*Click* [*here*](http://lesswrong.com/reviewVoting) *to begin voting. Click* [*here*](https://baserates.org/posts/QFBEjjAvT6KbaA3dY/the-lesswrong-2019-review) *for a general overview of the 2019 review.*
We are now in the final stretches of the LessWrong 2019 Review. We’ve spent 2 weeks... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DKoSKDrXcf2DRXqgv/voting-phase-for-2019-review |
# The impact merge
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
Lots of people want to do big things — start a big company, write a bestselling book, participate in an important project. I’ll call this the “accomplishment desire.”
Often this is centrally tied to social status; the relevant typ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RS7R48HQjG4edZYvW/the-impact-merge |
# What’s good about haikus?
Fiction often asks its readers to get through a whole list of evocative scenery to imagine before telling them anything about the situation that might induce an interest in what the fields and the flies looked like, or what color stuff was. I assume that this is fun if you are somehow more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/57Ag3kG7wLtRprFSh/what-s-good-about-haikus |
# [AN #133]: Building machines that can cooperate (with humans, institutions, or other machines)
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S8khsrXnHEwYbhd8X/an-133-building-machines-that-can-cooperate-with-humans |
# An Exploratory Toy AI Takeoff Model
*cross-posted from [niplav.github.io](https://niplav.github.io/toy_ai_takeoff_model.html)*
> In [AI safety](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem),
significant time has been spent on the question of
the intelligence of AI systems over time, especially during
[takeoff](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dBBqHxZqvXKW3ZsGa/an-exploratory-toy-ai-takeoff-model |
# Notes on Gratitude
This post examines the virtues of **appreciation**, **gratitude**, and **reciprocity**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about them, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dJMt6ty2Bs34gLvAZ/notes-on-gratitude |
# What is the currency of the future? 5 suggestions.
(Disclaimer: I am not an expert, and this article is for entertainment purposes only, it is not financial advice.)
This post describes five types of currencies that I believe we might see in the future: debt based, commodity/service based, bonds based, stock based,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wEc8Eq9Cmu4EsFHTu/what-is-the-currency-of-the-future-5-suggestions |
# Some recent survey papers on (mostly near-term) AI safety, security, and assurance
As part of a project I am doing at work, I took a look around to find recent overview / survey / literature review papers on several topics related to AI safety, security, and assurance. The focus was primarily on nearer-term issues, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GTcWrenvDMsThTQ26/some-recent-survey-papers-on-mostly-near-term-ai-safety |
# Discussion on the choice of concepts
“The reason that you can currently make toast without doing great damage is just that your toaster is stupid.”
“Can ‘stupid’ be correctly applied to toasters?”
“Yes”
“What if I say no?”
“Well, if you have a conception of stupidity that can’t be applied to toasters, and one th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zy6mbX4GHczKqYjd7/discussion-on-the-choice-of-concepts |
# Thoughts on Iason Gabriel’s Artificial Intelligence, Values, and Alignment
Iason Gabriel’s 2020 article [Artificial Intelligence, Values, and Alignment](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.09768.pdf) is a philosophical perspective on what the goal of alignment actually is, and how we might accomplish it. In the best spirit o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z2rkdEAJ9MvYPBeYW/thoughts-on-iason-gabriel-s-artificial-intelligence-values |
# Covid 1/14: To Launch a Thousand Shipments
Pardon me while I make my way to the rooftops.
So I’m sure it’s not that simple especially because of regulatory issues, but… [did you hear the one where humanity could have produced enough mRNA vaccine for the entire world by early this year, and could still decide to do ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSafR8TXKN6pCpjKP/covid-1-14-to-launch-a-thousand-shipments |
# Thunderdome and Review Co-Voting (Meetup Sunday 12pm PT)
This Sunday at noon, we’ll have a two-part event, we’ll have a two part event:
**1\. Thunderdome talks! (12pm PT)**
Is there a post up for the 2019 Review which you think is likely to be under or overrated, which you have strong feelings about? Are there pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/etGaY4RF45SbTYbDH/thunderdome-and-review-co-voting-meetup-sunday-12pm-pt |
# RationalWiki on face masks
Thinking about freedom of speech and the latest "purges" on social networks, my thoughts are like this: I prefer freedom of speech even for people like homeopaths and anti-vaxers, not because I consider their opinions to be inherently valuable, but because a *decision algorithm* that would... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YSP9prWnjKxzwuAKp/rationalwiki-on-face-masks |
# Grey Goo Requires AI
**Summary:** Risks from self-replicating machines or nanotechnology rely on the presence of a powerful artificial intelligence within the machines in order to overcome human control and the logistics of self-assembling in many domains.
The [grey goo scenario](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRC2PHtHP68i8uAcy/grey-goo-requires-ai-1 |
# The Great Karma Reckoning
Today the LessWrong team ran a script that recalculated the scores and karma of all posts, comments, tags and users based on the complete vote history. This has resulted in very substantial changes to all the karma scores on the site. Here are the biggest changes:
* We removed the histo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uyCGvvai9Gco24iR8/the-great-karma-reckoning |
# How to solve the argument about what the algorithm should do
Should YouTube's algorithm recommend conspiracy theory videos? Should twitter recommend tweets that disagree with the WHO? Should Facebook recommend things that'll make you angry?
There's countless such questions about recommender algorithms, usually with... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/75Ac5sXwfAAKJ83L2/how-to-solve-the-argument-about-what-the-algorithm-should-do |
# Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis
*(Previously in this series:* [*Round 1*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZH3urstwzimjYa6zW/pseudorandomness-contest-round-1)*,* [*Round 2*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nazML9cjZqrNntkFj/pseudorandomness-contest-round-2)*)*
In December I ran a pseudorandom... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xxC3Ka7axphW8kJ9E/pseudorandomness-contest-prizes-results-and-analysis |
# Alienation and meta-ethics (or: is it possible you should maximize helium?)
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
In a [previous post](https://handsandcities.com/2020/12/12/wholeheartedness-and-morality-as-taxes/), I tried to gesture at the possibility of a certain kind of wholehearted... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3jeBKhek57sEkYGCs/alienation-and-meta-ethics-or-is-it-possible-you-should |
# Deconditioning Aversion to Dislike
It doesn't matter who dislikes me. It doesn't matter who hates me. It doesn't even matter who likes me. All that matters is how many people love me because I live under the rule of law in a city where the people I have the potential to interact with vastly outnumber the people I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22uq4cof8WMisGTnj/deconditioning-aversion-to-dislike |
# The Future of Biological Warfare
Biological weapons can be divided into two categories: infectious and noninfectious. Infectious agents infect a host, reproduce, and then spread to another one or more new host. Noninfectious agents do not.
Noninfectious biological agents are similar to chemical weapons. You can sto... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EePQbd9r6h5xkx7iZ/the-future-of-biological-warfare |
# Meditations on faith
A few months before his death, Leonard Cohen, the great lyricist of modern spirituality, [sang to God](https://youtu.be/v0nmHymgM7Y):
> *Magnified, sanctified*
> *Be the holy name*
> *Vilified, crucified*
> *In the human frame*
> *A million candles burning*
> *For the help that never... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PLSuaroKoDuzAtyXH/meditations-on-faith |
# Why I'm excited about Debate
I think [Debate](https://openai.com/blog/debate/) is probably the most exciting existing safety research direction. This is a pretty significant shift from my opinions when I first read about it, so it seems worth outlining what’s changed. I’ll group my points into three categories. Poin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LDsSqXf9Dpu3J3gHD/why-i-m-excited-about-debate |
# AR Glasses: Much more than you wanted to know
**I.**
[AR Glasses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augmented_reality) are an unusually foreseeable technological innovation. They’ve been around in pop culture and science fiction for a long time. Everybody seems to agree that at some point, be it in 5, 10 or 20 years, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GTBoPkoY5JLk8on27/ar-glasses-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know |
# Citizenship in a Republic
This is a transcript of a speech I gave many years ago in Paris.
---
Strange and impressive associations rise in the mind of a man from the New World who speaks before this august body in this ancient institution of learning. Before his eyes pass the shadows of mighty kings and war-like n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kudjqr8apNwTQmoLq/citizenship-in-a-republic |
# Meditative thinking
I got fairly into meditation in 2018. Not in a way where you do a huge amount of meditation, or seek guidance on how to do meditation well, or on whether what you are doing is meditation at all. I don’t think I even graduated from doing meditation largely in five minute bouts. I just really dug a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wwz5RPbHbmKjfcrdY/meditative-thinking |
# Why Productivity Systems Don't Stick
**Note: Experimental, trying to repost a Twitter thread as a Lesswrong post to see if people like it (so if you like it, or don't, tell me).**
Let's talk a little bit about oscillating motivation, shadow values, non-coercion, and the problem of revolving productivity systems.
W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ga8g4RbKc6DmqEBwD/why-productivity-systems-don-t-stick |
# Status as a Service (Done Quick)
This is a summary of an excellent but long blog post, [Status as a Service (StaaS) — Remains of the Day (eugenewei.com)](https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service). I wanted everyone to have access to the perspectives and ideas laid out in the post, but the barrier... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sLpX8C2rrxquksGxE/status-as-a-service-done-quick |
# How do I improve at being strategic?
After reading [Humans Are Not Automatically Strategic](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PBRWb2Em5SNeWYwwB/humans-are-not-automatically-strategic) I realized I am not very strategic, and I want to improve. As practice I'm been using the recipe for strategic planning from that post ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TPKFvRrjxuP9X2vB5/how-do-i-improve-at-being-strategic |
# Excerpt from Arbital Solomonoff induction dialogue
This post contains an excerpt from a dialogue by Eliezer about why Solomonoff induction is a good answer to "how to do epistemology using infinite computing power". I'm link-posting it from Arbital because I found it really useful and wish I'd seen it on Less Wrong ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wsBpJn7HWEPCJxYai/excerpt-from-arbital-solomonoff-induction-dialogue |
# Wuwei
*Wuwei* (kanji: 無為, simplified: 无为, pinyin: wúwéi, hiragana: むい) denotes a political philosophy and a state of mind.
*Wuwei* combines *wu* 無 and *wei* 為. *Wu* is straightforward to translate. *Wu* means "don't" or "without". *Wei* is not straightforward to translate. I like to think of *wei* as "action" or "i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bHGPMAifnT4eRZNez/wuwei |
# What is going on in the world?
Here’s a list of alternative high level narratives about what is importantly going on in the world—the central plot, as it were—for the purpose of thinking about what role in a plot to take:
* The US is falling apart rapidly (on the scale of years), as evident in US politics departi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qGceZXtQoMuiJ2cxN/what-is-going-on-in-the-world |
# How can I find trustworthy dietary advice?
I currently think that the official dietary advice is sometimes untrustworthy, and I don't know when it's trustworthy and when it isn't, so I'm in a state of epistemic learned helplessness. Some reasons why I think this:
--I get the impression that much of the official adv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bsQer2JGJbnDkpspW/how-can-i-find-trustworthy-dietary-advice |
# CollAction history and lessons learned
Hi all,
@[Yoav Ravid](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/yoav-ravid) mentioned that it might be interesting/useful to get a “retrospective” post on CollAction.org (an assurance-contract website or what we call a ‘crowdacting’ website) that me and a few friends started a while ago... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rM2zMGSBjm5BA2eX4/collaction-history-and-lessons-learned |
# Why do stocks go up?
Here are two stories about stocks that I find hard to reconcile:
1. Stock prices represent the market's best guess at a stock's future price.
2. Overall, stock prices tend to go up due to advances in technology.
But if stock prices tend to go up due to technology, why isn't that already pric... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4vcTYhA2X99aGaGHG/why-do-stocks-go-up |
# D&D.Sci II Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y9FcNzWqczbfqcPQ3/d-and-d-sci-ii-the-sorceror-s-personal-shopper) I made earlier this week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-and-d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cbmS7wkdFzka7SkvN/d-and-d-sci-ii-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# The Ecological Perspective
One of the shifts I've made in recent years is adopting a more ecological perspective of society. Even if you find a particular group of people frustrating, they may very well be serving an important function in the same way that an ecosystem requires many different plants and animals in o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n349LDARmNGqbMNh8/the-ecological-perspective |
# Are the consequences of groups usually highly contingent on their details?
How much of the impact of an organization is covered by it being ‘a group of size M working on X’, relative to the specifics of how and what they do in working on X? What if we also include a single scale of how functional they are?
For inst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/acdnqZEA2dMT4gCDJ/are-the-consequences-of-groups-usually-highly-contingent-on |
# Actually possible: thoughts on Utopia
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
Life in the future could be profoundly good. Many people accept something like this in principle. But I think it often goes underestimated in practice, especially once we imagine society’s most glaring problems... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SLw2MEgxFtiKAqgQ5/actually-possible-thoughts-on-utopia |
# (USA) N95 masks are available on Amazon
My family has been relying on a supply of off brand "procedure masks" that I got at the start of the pandemic, and many of my neighbors are still wearing cloth masks. After reading "A good supply of KN95 masks is available from China, with many supermarkets and pharmacies now ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdkFnRnZv4ut5qGhR/usa-n95-masks-are-available-on-amazon |
# Literature Review on Goal-Directedness
**Introduction: Questioning Goals**
===================================
Goals play a central role in almost all thinking in the AI existential risk research. Common scenarios assume misaligned goals, be it from a single AGI (paperclip maximizer) or multiple advanced AI optimiz... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cfXwr6NC9AqZ9kr8g/literature-review-on-goal-directedness |
# Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Appeals to the Complexity/Mysteriousness/Efficiency of the Brain
*\[Epistemic status: Strong opinions lightly held, this time with a cool graph.\]*
I argue that an entire class of common arguments against short timelines is bogus, and provide weak evidence that anchoring to th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HhWhaSzQr6xmBki8F/birds-brains-planes-and-ai-against-appeals-to-the-complexity |
# Short summary of mAIry's room
This is a shorter summary of the post "[mAIry's room: AI reasoning to solve philosophical problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DLmhJbuhYek5rEhpH/mairy-s-room-ai-reasoning-to-solve-philosophical-problems)". Its aim is to explain the key concepts of that post without going into full ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rmBS5nTJh6pxERWEu/short-summary-of-mairy-s-room |
# Public selves
A question that I return to in life strategy is whether to lean heavily on ‘spending one’s weirdness points wisely’—otherwise put, cowering lonely behind a cardboard cutout of the most forgettable person while proffering optimized propaganda through carefully selected slots—or whether to offer the worl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7u5TWD5YAjWDu5oZw/public-selves |
# Some thoughts on risks from narrow, non-agentic AI
Here are some concerns which have been raised about the development of advanced AI:
* Power might become concentrated with agentic AGIs which are highly misaligned with humanity as a whole (the second species argument).
* AI might allow power to become concentr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AWbtbmC6rAg6dh75b/some-thoughts-on-risks-from-narrow-non-agentic-ai |
# Discovery fiction for the Pythagorean theorem
I've been thinking recently about how to teach the Pythagorean theorem to high school students. As part of that thinking, I looked around to see how the topic was being taught in various textbooks, online videos, blog posts, etc. Typically, the discussion goes something ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rTC8MgPuYfXEw3WLp/discovery-fiction-for-the-pythagorean-theorem |
# 1Day Sooner is Hiring a Communications Director
[**1Day Sooner**](http://1daysooner.org/) **is hiring a new Communications Director to make the public case for our advocacy priorities.**
We think this role has the potential to be very high-impact: human challenge trials can still potentially save thousands of lives... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CxnrnvbFtiaoBoz5N/1day-sooner-is-hiring-a-communications-director |
# Democratic Currency
As an economics major, I have often heard it pronounced (largely correctly) that the great thing about money and the free market is that money is an extremely nimble decision-making process; money provides a way to measure how much value people can gain from something being created, or some servi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iYXk9pASYbMzxu2dR/democratic-currency |
# Three types of Evidence
This post is about a distinction between three different ways of providing evidence that I've found clarifying.
The first is **generating data**. Any study or experiment is in this category. AI Alignment examples include [testing approaches in toy models](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YCmWopTCpZcfPfg5s/three-types-of-evidence |
# Matt Levine on "Fraud is no fun without friends."
Someone recently told me "Matt Levine's Finance Newsletter is really good", and then I [signed up](https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff). Most post so far are about... well, I don't actually know the jargon to say what they're about, but "good ty... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Qwignbzu4ddXLTsT/matt-levine-on-fraud-is-no-fun-without-friends |
# Against the Backward Approach to Goal-Directedness
Introduction: Forward and Backward Approaches
=============================================
I first started thinking about deconfusing goal-directedness after reading Rohin's [series](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/4dHMdK5TLN6xcqtyc/p/DfcywmqRSkBaCB6Ma) [of](https://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/adKSWktLbxfihDANM/against-the-backward-approach-to-goal-directedness |
# Prediction: Astra Zeneca approval date
It's widely publicized that the Trump administration pressured the FDA to release the vaccines earlier by reducing our evidentiary standards in light of the thousands of daily deaths. While not fond of Trump generally, I heartily agree that the FDA should end its vaccine bans e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/akECB7eHJJ5yYrsTL/prediction-astra-zeneca-approval-date |
# Deutsch and Yudkowsky on scientific explanation
Science aims to come up with good theories about the world - but what makes a theory good? The standard view is that the key traits are predictive accuracy and simplicity. Deutsch focuses instead on the concepts of *explanation* and *understanding*: a good theory is an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mHZRauLwZWhR8KWbL/deutsch-and-yudkowsky-on-scientific-explanation |
# For Better Commenting, Avoid PONDS
"All around the bog still sprawls, from out the drear lake come soulless thoughts and drift into the hearts of the people, and they are one with their surroundings."—... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k5TTsuHovbeTWgszD/for-better-commenting-avoid-ponds |
# #3: Choosing a cryonics provider
*This is post 3 of 10 in my* [*sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe) *on how to sign up for cryonics.*
* * *
There are a fair few companies working in or adjacent to the cryonics space, but so far as I can tell*, the most commonly considered ones are:
* [Alc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QRhZ4JpNsfKhmBeb9/3-choosing-a-cryonics-provider |
# On fundamental solitude
A quote from Aldous Huxley that has stuck in my mind more than perhaps any other over the years:
> “We live together, we act on, and react to, one another; but always and in all circumstances we are by ourselves. The martyrs go hand in hand into the arena; they are crucified alone. Embraced,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T6it7B65r2zAeNpWZ/on-fundamental-solitude |
# Infra-Bayesianism Unwrapped
**Introduction**
================
[Infra-Bayesianism](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/CmrW8fCmSLK7E25sa) is a recent theoretical framework in AI Alignment, coming from Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor (Alexander Appel). It provides the groundwork for a learning theory of RL in the non-reali... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zi7nmuSmBFbQWgFBa/infra-bayesianism-unwrapped |
# Covid: The Question of Immunity From Infection
Over and over and over again, I’ve been told we should expect immunity from infection to fade Real Soon Now, or that immunity isn’t that strong.
With several recent papers and the inevitable media misinterpretations of them, it’s time to take a close look at the findi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/msNB8MdQ2oh2o3Com/covid-the-question-of-immunity-from-infection |
# Connor Leahy at the SlateStarCodex online meetup
Connor Leahy will speak on "Moloch Reigns: To Gather an Army or to Forge a Sword?," then will take questions.
After that, we will socialize virtually at the LessWrong Walled Garden in GatherTown.
Please register at [https://forms.gle/zxrR3N763bNsAkAS9](https://forms... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/HksKrTavLxHckd5ma/connor-leahy-at-the-slatestarcodex-online-meetup |
# Recognizing Numbers
*Warning: this post is moderately technical and very theoretical.*
Problem 1: there are five apples on a plate. If you and your friend each eat an apple from the plate, how many apples are left?
Problem 2: what is 5 - 1 - 1?
Word problems are harder than number problems. (Source: every element... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S6MerYRZw4jDrzGGD/recognizing-numbers |
# Contra StatNews: How Long to Herd Immunity?
*Cross post from applieddivinitystudies.com/stat-immunity*
*Warning: Speculative armchair epidemiology. All emphasis mine.*
*See also Youyang Gu's [projection](https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/).*
**Summary**: In an [article](https://www.statnews.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ypscDhei69vCXzDyX/contra-statnews-how-long-to-herd-immunity |
# Notes on Optimism, Hope, and Trust
This post examines the virtues of **hope**, **optimism**, and **trust**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about them, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/62fx4bp4W2Bxn4bZJ/notes-on-optimism-hope-and-trust |
# A few thought on the inner ring
I enjoyed C.S.Lewis’ [The Inner Ring](https://www.lewissociety.org/innerring/), and recommend you read it. It basically claims that much of human effort is directed at being admitted to whatever the local in-group is, that this happens easily to people, and that it is a bad thing to b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ycrreLRsaANhYxZmC/a-few-thought-on-the-inner-ring |
# A ghost
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
This post describes a type of thought experiment I sometimes perform in thinking about what to do. I find it a helpful tool for stepping back from what’s immediately salient to me. It’s mostly just a somewhat hokey variant on a [classic](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnPv3pCYTohH3ayxD/a-ghost |
# The Multi-Tower Study Strategy
**Boxed Topics, Jenga Towers, And The Spacing Effect.**
An undergraduate class on molecular biology teaches you about DNA transcription, the Golgi apparatus, cancer, and integral membrane proteins. Sometimes, these sub-topics are connected. But most often, they're presented in separat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HZuAT2sGbDbasdjy5/the-multi-tower-study-strategy |
# Would most people benefit from being less coercive to themselves?
Non-coercive motivation is a motivation system that doesn't rely on forcing yourself, pressuring yourself, shaming or guilting ([I explain more of what it means here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ga8g4RbKc6DmqEBwD/why-productivity-systems-don-t-st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HDHqvf9vMqSXEBCLh/would-most-people-benefit-from-being-less-coercive-to |
# The Problem of the Criterion
I keep finding cause to discuss the problem of the criterion, so I figured I'd try my hand at writing up a post explaining it. I don't have a great track record on writing clear explanations, but I'll do my best and include lots of links you can follow to make up for any inadequacy on my... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Xs7ag4gsiA6zspmsD/the-problem-of-the-criterion |
# Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner
Aside from worries over the new strains, I would be saying this was an exceptionally good week.
Both deaths and positive test percentages took a dramatic turn downwards, and likely will continue that trend for at least several weeks. Things are still quite short-term bad in many place... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aaJFR2Fn7JjGmiXB/covid-1-21-turning-the-corner |
# Counterfactual control incentives
Co-authored with [**Rebecca Gorman**](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/rgorman).
In section 5.2 of their Arxiv paper, "[The Incentives that Shape Behaviour](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.07118.pdf)", which introduces structural causal influence models and a proposal for addressing misa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/67a8C6KsKn2NyW2Ry/counterfactual-control-incentives |
# [AN #134]: Underspecification as a cause of fragility to distribution shift
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nM99oLhRzrmLWozoM/an-134-underspecification-as-a-cause-of-fragility-to |
# [Link] Still Alive - Astral Codex Ten
> **I.**
>
> *This was a triumph*
> *I'm making a note here, huge success*
>
> No, seriously, it was awful. I [deleted my blog](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/06/22/nyt-is-threatening-my-safety-by-revealing-my-real-name-so-i-am-deleting-the-blog/) of 1,557 posts. I wanted t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k7kwAemRuLQuFNpau/link-still-alive-astral-codex-ten |
# [Book Review] The Chrysanthemum and the Sword
Japan was the only non-Western[^1] country to build an industrial empire before the establishment of the liberal world order. *The Chrysanthemum and the Sword: Patterns of Japanese Culture* by Ruth Benedict is thus a real-world case study of what culture could have beene... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WDAP2E5ZSe94yWDhL/book-review-the-chrysanthemum-and-the-sword |
# Appendices to cryonics signup sequence
*This post is for reference and is not intended to stand alone. It may be periodically updated with additional appendices.*
Appendix A: Cryonics and x-risk timelines
=========================================
Over the past few years, some people have updated toward pretty shor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j4aqm7wgiHFwLmfJR/appendices-to-cryonics-signup-sequence |
# On the nature of purpose
\[cross-posted [from my blog](https://metabstract.squarespace.com/blog/on-the-nature-of-purpose)\]
Introduction
------------
Is the concept of *purposes*, and more generally teleological accounts of behaviour, to be banished from the field of biology?
For many years - essentially since... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3dG8z5boMMBc5EXWz/on-the-nature-of-purpose |
# What if we all just stayed at home and didn’t get covid for two weeks?
I keep thinking about how if at any point we were all able to actually quarantine for two weeks^[1](#fn:1)^ at the same time, the pandemic would be over.
Like, if instead of everyone being more or less cautious over a year, we all agreed on sing... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bG29WyHYcQudDjQ5N/what-if-we-all-just-stayed-at-home-and-didn-t-get-covid-for |
# Reflections on "Psycho-Pass"
*Psycho-Pass* takes place in a cyberpunk dystopia ruled by a [totalitarian AI dictator](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kvxq4Nfxw5i8AyAKm/manifesto-of-the-silent-minority). Cyberpunk stories are often about evading the law. What makes *Psycho-Pass* special is its protagonist is a police ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vd9C7TbPMZLAsjw6i/reflections-on-psycho-pass |
# Bayesian Charity
Cross-posted from [Living Within Reason](http://livingwithinreason.com/2021/01/22/bayesian-charity/)
> In philosophy, the [Principle of Charity](http://philosophy.lander.edu/oriental/charity.html) is a technique in which you evaluate your opponent’s position as if it made the most amount of sense p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NYFtNmbR6X98hvoG3/bayesian-charity |
# Poll: Which variables are most strategically relevant?
Which variables are most important for predicting and influencing how AI goes?
Here are some examples:
* Timelines: “When will crazy AI stuff start to happen?”
* [Alignment tax](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/63stBTw3WAW6k45dY/paul-christiano-cu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yhb5BNksWcESezp7p/poll-which-variables-are-most-strategically-relevant |
# How good are our mouse models (psychology, biology, medicine, etc.), ignoring translation into humans, just in terms of understanding mice? (Same question for drosophila.)
I've been thinking about why some domains have reached more definite, mathematized, and law-like models than others, e.g. the hard sciences of ph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tDxSWpbBZN9AgnSE9/how-good-are-our-mouse-models-psychology-biology-medicine |
# Help your rivals when they are numerous
Suppose you are playing a game of chess. Chess is a zero-sum bipolar game. Anything your opponent wins is something you lose, and vice versa. If a trade becomes available then you should take if the benefit to you is greater than the benefit to your opponent. If the benefit to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nB7kc8FSYnEkSZo9c/help-your-rivals-when-they-are-numerous |
# #4: Introduction to life insurance for cryonics
*This is post 4 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*, and the first of five posts on life insurance. I know that sounds like a lot. It's gonna be okay. *
Introduction
============
Why life insurance?
--------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pspnwc9HikWbNkt4Z/4-introduction-to-life-insurance-for-cryonics |
# Exercise: Taboo "Should"
*Thankyou to* [*Elizabeth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/pktechgirl) *for a great conversation which spurred me to write up this post.*
Claim: moral/status/value judgements (like "we should blame X for Y", “Z is Bad”, etc) like to sneak into epistemic models and masquerade as weight-bear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/M8cEyKmpcbYzC2Lv5/exercise-taboo-should |
# Lifelong investments
I love [living in Boston](https://www.jefftk.com/p/why-boston), and find the benefits go up each year. The longer I've been here, the more people I know, and the more integrated I am into my local communities. Friends move here because they like the community we've built and want to be closer. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D6GBM6Pqcbyjp659S/lifelong-investments |
# Sunzi's《Methods of War》- The Army's Form
This is a translation of Chapter 4 of *The Art of War* by Sunzi. No English sources were used.
---
> 孙子曰：昔之善战者，先为不可胜，以待敌之可胜。
Do not first seek victory. Establish conditions such that you cannot lose.
> 不可胜在己，可胜在敌。
Then await an opportunity to win.
> 故善战者，能为不可胜，不使敌之必可胜。
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gDfGE6Hk2vBPmL6Tn/sunzi-s-methods-of-war-the-army-s-form |
# Who should you expect to spend your life with?
Striking things about the figure below, which I got from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/time-use), on time use:
* People spend increasing time alone over their whole lives, with the exception of roughly their twenties. This surprises me a bit because ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ozrLPjJLaqYQSHpH/who-should-you-expect-to-spend-your-life-with |
# Everything Okay
Okay is a key concept for which we lack a good detailed handle.
There seems to be some sort of switch in brains, certainly in mine, that goes between modes of Okay and Not Okay. Being in Not Okay Mode is a giant ball of stress that makes it impossible to relax and demands attention.
When I hear t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nsLeY7SZjHZYTPK7t/everything-okay |
# Lessons I've Learned from Self-Teaching
In 2018, I was a bright-eyed grad student who was freaking out about AI alignment. I guess I'm still a bright-eyed grad student freaking out about AI alignment, but that's beside the point.
I wanted to help, and so I [started levelling up](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/KGYLvTq... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cumc876woKaZLmQs5/lessons-i-ve-learned-from-self-teaching |
# Technological stagnation: Why I came around
“We wanted [flying cars](https://rootsofprogress.org/where-is-my-flying-car), instead we got 140 characters,” [says Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund](https://www.businessinsider.com/founders-fund-the-future-2011-7), expressing a sort of jaded disappointment with technological p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gMszBSAX23uqYhytR/technological-stagnation-why-i-came-around |
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