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# Dissolving Sleeping Beauty
The first thing I recommend to people interested in anthropics and the [Sleeping Beauty Problem](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Sleeping_Beauty_problem) is, [If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gMXsyhPiEJbGerF6F/if-a-tree-falls-on-sleeping-beauty) by ata. The w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJAwuNcwqWpKq2mz3/dissolving-sleeping-beauty |
# Li’l pots
As a pandemic-era purchaser of foods for a large household of time-thirsty researchers, I can tell you an interesting thing about the demand for cheese in this context:
1. If you spend a lot of money on a nice cheese, wrapped up in some fancy foreign label, there is a good chance that it will languish sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3rGk3Feo4sZTrdQpb/li-l-pots |
# Confirmation Bias in Action
Cross-posted, as always, [from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2021/01/23/confirmation-bias-in-action/).
* * *
The heart of Rationality is learning [how to actually change your mind](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/how-to-actually-change-your-mind), and the biggest obstacle to changi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tRuFdqL8cRSu6kqh2/confirmation-bias-in-action |
# FC final: Can Factored Cognition schemes scale?
_(Apologies for the long delay.)_
# Scaling of Regular Thought
The punchline of the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mxmeeGk3mTM7BrT93/intuition) was that there is only one mode of thinking: your brain can solve various tasks in a single step (from the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXgge5EYGRvddSMke/fc-final-can-factored-cognition-schemes-scale |
# On clinging
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
I often find myself wanting to refer to a certain dimension of emotional experience, which I’ll call “clinging.” This post tries to point at it. I also suggest that understanding this dimension can resolve a common confusion about Buddh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Aw4QqnKxP7Euk2nCw/on-clinging |
# You can send people KN95s
At the beginning of the pandemic there was a massive mask shortage. We still don't have enough US-spec masks, but production of Chinese-spec (KN95) masks has ramped up enormously. These are much better than cloth masks, and any time someone in our household goes inside (work, medical appoin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jmBSh5sWvDpFuG5sJ/you-can-send-people-kn95s |
# What is a VNM stable set, really?
Previously: [Book report: Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (von Neumann & Morgenstern)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qRKyZGcoio9JhdmvX/book-report-theory-of-games-and-economic-behavior-von)
_Summary: Von Neumann and Morgenstern defined the notion of stable set in order to c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CLuCgA2Ab7sBfvEuW/what-is-a-vnm-stable-set-really |
# Tentative covid surface risk estimates
My household previously made some highly uncertain estimates of the covid risk from bringing random objects that other people have recently been touching into our home, for instance salads and groceries an endless stream of Amazon packages. The official guidance is very vague, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GaqxPWTiYgJRH28Qk/tentative-covid-surface-risk-estimates |
# How likely is it that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a laboratory?
I read this [article](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-escape-theory.html) in NY magazine, on the coronavirus lab-leak hypothesis. I found it fairly convincing, so I think the chance that SARS-CoV-2 passed through some human laborato... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gwaQCfbTsAM2qAS2D/how-likely-is-it-that-sars-cov-2-originated-in-a-laboratory |
# Define Your Learning Goal: Competence Or Broad Knowledge
> **Summary:** If you're trying to learn something, get clear on whether you're
>
> 1. **Building competence:** Getting very fast and reliable on tasks that are used for a well-defined project.
> 2. **Building broad knowledge:** Learning just enough about a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dMjLzgD3udmYpnqB3/define-your-learning-goal-competence-or-broad-knowledge |
# Qualia Research Institute: History & 2021 Strategy
# Key Points #
* Theoretical & empirical work on emotional valence is Qualia Research Institute’s core research focus. At a high level, Qualia Research Institute (QRI) works to formulate universal theories of valence^[ *Universal* meaning that the theory retains its... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yhbnRb6269LrfSttn/qualia-research-institute-history-and-2021-strategy-1 |
# Final Voting Coworking Tonight 7:30 PT
This is the last day of the LessWrong 2019 Review. If you've been putting off finishing your voting, you're welcome to come hang out to do some voting coworking.
Arguments about posts you think are probably over or undervalued are also welcome.
I'll be hanging out in the Wal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/vFA7bKwPRBBvCy5Ga/final-voting-coworking-tonight-7-30-pt |
# Notes on Forgiveness
This post examines the virtues of **forgiveness**, **mercy**, **clemency**, and ***epieikeia***. I mostly explore what other people have learned about these virtues, rather express my own opinions about them, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LzyPcetdk2pe4iTdT/notes-on-forgiveness |
# New Empty Units
Discussing housing policy in left-wing spaces I often run into an argument which is, essentially "building more units doesn't help with the housing shortage because so many will be bought by speculators with no intention of living there." This view, however, implies there's an excellent opportunity t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbXKffrfrCFhoxtr7/new-empty-units |
# What's the big deal about Bayes' Theorem?
$$I guess that this kind of question gets asked (and answered) a lot. But I've tried to read a few posts here about Bayes' Theorem and they seem to talk about slightly different things than the question that is bothering me. Maybe I should've read a few more, but since I'm a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cWmiWPHyHaqpAYwas/what-s-the-big-deal-about-bayes-theorem |
# Wordtune review
Wow, Facebook is advertising [an AI-driven writing tool](https://www.wordtune.com/) to me. I think this is the first time I’ve seen a mainstream potentially useful product coming from all of this. Let’s see how it does. I’ve started by writing this paragraph quickly myself, and then I will rewrite it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nrbqffvEHT4H84wP8/wordtune-review |
# Covid Canada Jan25: low & slow
🇨🇦 People liked [my **Canada** comment on Zvi's post on Jan 14th](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dSafR8TXKN6pCpjKP/covid-1-14-to-launch-a-thousand-shipments?commentId=KusJiRq389gmKhQq2), so here's another update as a top-level post. I thought I wouldn't have much to say but apparent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/df6BztFrG83q9HJGb/covid-canada-jan25-low-and-slow |
# Non-Coercive Perfectionism
Perfectionism is a surprisingly common ailment among both procrastinators who don't get stuff done, and high performers who get a LOT done. With just a few tweaks you can go from the former to the latter. While perfectionism is quite complicated, a useful simplification is to break it down... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/asycP5sge9ok7Kt8v/non-coercive-perfectionism |
# Simulacrum 3 As Stag-Hunt Strategy
Reminder of the rules of Stag Hunt:
* Each player chooses to hunt either Rabbit or Stag
* Players who choose Rabbit receive a small reward regardless of what everyone else chooses
* Players who choose Stag receive a large reward if-and-only-if everyone else chooses Stag. If ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tF8z9HBoBn783Cirz/simulacrum-3-as-stag-hunt-strategy |
# #4.1: Types of life insurance
*This is post 5 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup guide*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*, and the second of five posts on life insurance.*
* * *
In this post, I'll cover the different types of life insurance policies you might want to use to fund your cryopreservation. T... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NPDSB3WEEAb8Swuyc/4-1-types-of-life-insurance |
# Did convalescent plasma therapy drive the evolution of more infectious covid strains?
I have seen articles in the [National Geographic](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/why-new-coronavirus-variants-suddenly-arose-in-uk-and-south-africa/) and [Indian Express](https://www.newindianexpress.com/lifesty... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GgAEfTGfFEHb6BFDj/did-convalescent-plasma-therapy-drive-the-evolution-of-more |
# What is up with spirituality?
What is up with spirituality? I mean, from an atheistic perspective?
In my experience, atheists tend to focus on the empirical question of whether there is an all-powerful supernatural creature behind all that we observe. And yeah, there probably isn’t.
But having won that point, what... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7xyDEoJjppeRfZ3r5/what-is-up-with-spirituality |
# Optimal play in human-judged Debate usually won't answer your question
Epistemic status: highly confident (99%+) this is an issue for *optimal* play with human consequentialist judges. Thoughts on practical implications are more speculative, and involve much hand-waving (70% sure I’m not overlooking a trivial fix, a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/35748mXjzwxDrX7yQ/optimal-play-in-human-judged-debate-usually-won-t-answer |
# The Upper Limit of Value
I am happy to announce [a new paper I co-wrote with Anders Sandberg, which is now a public preprint](https://philpapers.org/archive/MANWIT-6.pdf) (Note: PDF). The abstract is below, followed by a brief sketch of some of what we said in the paper.
**Abstract:** How much value can our dec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bc77uwswZzXSHzGH7/the-upper-limit-of-value |
# [AN #135]: Five properties of goal-directed systems
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wJYitLpqujQqwX7ke/an-135-five-properties-of-goal-directed-systems |
# A study on air purifiers and birth weight
*Crossposted from* [*Probably Definitely*](https://apithymaxim.wordpress.com/2021/01/27/a-study-on-air-purifiers-and-birth-weight/)*.*
I was excited to see this [paper](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412018311413?) on the effects of air purifiers on ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8YTH7FAjNSSdT7Fsa/a-study-on-air-purifiers-and-birth-weight |
# Build Your Number Sense
Nobody has ever called math *sensual*. But it is!
**Magnitude: The Difference Between 1 And 2**
Take a look at these two numbers:
1 vs. 2
Are these small numbers or large numbers? Is the difference between them important?
If they represent the number of dates you and I have been on, that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/58G4WJ8yKYJbgkEsN/build-your-number-sense |
# #4.2: Cryonics-friendly life insurance carriers
*This is post 6 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup guide*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*, and the third of five posts on life insurance.*
* * *
It's more difficult to obtain life insurance for cryonics than to obtain life insurance in general, because t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kx4kbYp4aMBDktYFi/4-2-cryonics-friendly-life-insurance-carriers |
# #4.3: Cryonics-friendly insurance agents
*This is post 7 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup guide*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*, and the fourth of five posts on life insurance.*
What is an insurance agent?
===========================
An insurance agent is someone who acts as an intermediary between... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6ZXvAybgvQxsmFTcR/4-3-cryonics-friendly-insurance-agents |
# Sunday Event: Connor Leahy on Moloch Reigns at SSC Online Meetup
*Linkpost due to weird filtering effects.**
Connor Leahy will speak on "Moloch Reigns: To Gather an Army or to Forge a Sword?," then will take questions.
**Date**: Sunday 31st January 2021
**Time:** 10:30 am – 1:00 pm PST
**Where:** Zoom for Lect... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgZNpaaadBuo4T96L/sunday-event-connor-leahy-on-moloch-reigns-at-ssc-online |
# #4.4: The insurance underwriting process
*This is post 8 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup guide*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*, and the last of five posts on life insurance. Underwriting is not a complex or interesting topic, but I'm including this brief writeup in the sequence for the sake of givin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXHY8A8WxXAiMqkAC/4-4-the-insurance-underwriting-process |
# Unpopularity of efficiency
I feel like ‘efficiency’ is often scowled at. It is associated with factories and killing and commercialization, and people who are no fun. Things are openly criticized for being oriented toward efficiency. Nobody hopes to give their children an efficient childhood or asks for an efficient... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpYBbDo2bc7Dwm5dS/unpopularity-of-efficiency |
# Taking money seriously
(cross-posted from [my blog](https://sundaystopwatch.wordpress.com/))
As a young environmental activist, I lived the stereotype by not giving money serious thought, both personally and politically. There is a point where the less money you have, the less you care about it, even though you sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TsjdF2Fpes7S7Syej/taking-money-seriously |
# Covid: Bill Gates and Vaccine Production
Vaccine production, and in particular vaccine production by Pfizer and Moderna, has languished for want of a few billion dollars, well within the budget of many individual philanthropists. It is an important fact about the world that none of them stepped up and fixed the prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SruhzksSgHWSuxm7b/covid-bill-gates-and-vaccine-production |
# Covid 1/28: Muddling Through
Three different time frames, three different fronts. We continue to muddle through, with some hope that this could be successful relative to our modest expectations.
There’s the situation short term, there’s the new strains, there’s the vaccines.
On the short term front, forward looki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rhy5g75NdRKdw9ibB/covid-1-28-muddling-through |
# Spaced Repetition Systems for Intuitions?
I often see discussion here of [Anki](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cumc876woKaZLmQs5/lessons-i-ve-learned-from-self-teaching) or other [Spaced](http://cognitivemedium.com/srs-mathematics) [Repetition](http://augmentingcognition.com/ltm.html) [Systems](https://www.lesswron... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y38fjrJ8GuXCZ4tNa/spaced-repetition-systems-for-intuitions |
# Extracting Money from Causal Decision Theorists
My paper with my Ph.D. advisor Vince Conitzer titled "Extracting Money from Causal Decision Theorists" has been [formally published](https://doi.org/10.1093/pq/pqaa086) (Open Access) in *The Philosophical Quarterly*. Probably many of you have seen either earlier drafts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xPeWJaAzp2LeDdP4Z/extracting-money-from-causal-decision-theorists |
# Where numbers come from
Crossposted from [my personal website](https://erischel.com/numbers/)
Alternative title: Wolves hate him!! Shepherd compares the size of large sets with this one easy trick!
Previously: [Recognizing Numbers](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/S6MerYRZw4jDrzGGD/recognizing-numbers)
Let's do a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MEnYYCJBCD89iZSJX/where-numbers-come-from |
# Dumb Dichotomies in Ethics, Part 1: Intentions vs Consequences
1\. Intro
---------
Over the last few years, I’ve taken three distinct “intro to philosophy” classes: one in high school, and then both “Intro to Philosophy” and “Intro to Ethics” in college. If the intentions vs consequences / Kant vs Mills / deontolog... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T7GLn6aXEN5XZbE48/dumb-dichotomies-in-ethics-part-1-intentions-vs-consequences |
# Top li’l pots
[I am a connoisseur](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2021/01/24/lil-pots.html) of a certain genre of mostly-snack food, combining aesthetics, convenience and the idiosyncratic types of actual food that I like to eat (central examples of food whose substance I like, ignoring form, are parsley, farro, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgwshEmnQzp5Xp2aK/top-li-l-pots |
# What are some real life Inadequate Equilibria?
I would like to compile an as-comprehensive-as-possible list of known Inadequate Equilibria / large scale coordination problems.
An Inadequate Equilibrium is a situation in which a community, an institution, or society at large is in a *bad Nash equilibrium*. The group... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N6w4y94u5gvtRM74k/what-are-some-real-life-inadequate-equilibria |
# The GameStop Situation: Simplified
### *An attempt to explain what happened this week in plain english*
[Original post here.](https://jorgevelez.substack.com/p/the-gamestop-situation-simplified)
By now, you have probably [seen](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/27/investing/gamestop-reddit-stock/index.html) [the](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W7rkbJT6FYg2PjsPx/the-gamestop-situation-simplified |
# AMA on EA Forum: Ajeya Cotra, researcher at Open Phil
Hi all, I'm [Ajeya](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team/ajeya-cotra), and I'll be doing an AMA on the EA Forum (this is a linkpost for my announcement there). I would love to get questions from LessWrong and Alignment Forum users as well -- please head on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F2C6KKRXGeZ424mi7/ama-on-ea-forum-ajeya-cotra-researcher-at-open-phil |
# Less Wrong Poetry Corner: Coventry Patmore's "Magna Est Veritas"
[(Previously)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trb9HPWFk8Gy9MBdN/less-wrong-poetry-corner-walter-raleigh-s-the-lie)
[This is my favorite poem that's](https://www.poemtree.com/poems/MagnaEstVeritas.htm) secretly about the necessity of _revealing inform... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9M3ynNuBsRCDfmEsZ/less-wrong-poetry-corner-coventry-patmore-s-magna-est |
# Play with neural net
I found [Tensorflow Playground](https://playground.tensorflow.org/) pretty cool to play with, in case anyone is looking for the kind of intuitive understanding of neural nets that futzing with a thing with one’s hands contributes to.
[
======================================
... or you can just kee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/G6vtZr2KPMB43KTMa/aisu-2021 |
# Fight Akrasia and Decision Fatigue with DIY Productivity Software
[Akrasia](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/akrasia) is the condition of knowing what you should be doing, but being psychologically unable to motivate yourself to do it. [Decision fatigue](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rR9Rfjpq5LoBCu7Zs/decision-fatigu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h6bWNMkMmMJe4sx63/fight-akrasia-and-decision-fatigue-with-diy-productivity |
# Notes on Judgment and Righteous Anger
This post examines the virtues of **judgment** and **righteous anger**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about them, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/89ysyJQZRJJneXNfZ/notes-on-judgment-and-righteous-anger |
# Catching the Spark
*Multiple readers have noted that this is very similar to a method called “Thinking At the Edge”, taught by Eugene Gendlin. I don’t know much about Thinking At the Edge, but what little I do know suggests that he and I have developed his focusing work in similar directions, perhaps for similar rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9cbEPEuCa9E7uHMXT/catching-the-spark |
# For those who advocate Anki
I just read the start of TurnTrout's Lessons from his self-teaching efforts and his mention of Anki made me wonder about something.
Spaced repetition is a bit of a take away from real life experience. Typically we don't use everything we're learned every day, we get a form a natural spac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AAc6fswMPMXjkmPc4/for-those-who-advocate-anki |
# Researching and Reasoning About Bardiya
It's both profitable and gratifying to use one's reasoning skills to attempting to figure out answers to complex and murky questions. Even failing the ability to say definitively what happened, we can still make and update our own statistical distributions of what could have p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3FBwpyTzMPGdKNSDt/researching-and-reasoning-about-bardiya |
# Clarifications on tech stagnation
Five points of clarification regarding the “[technology stagnation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gMszBSAX23uqYhytR/technological-stagnation-why-i-came-around)” hypothesis:
**It posits a slowdown relative to peak growth rates of ~100 years ago.** It doesn’t mean growth has gone t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y9AkDFQdeERa7yNgN/clarifications-on-tech-stagnation |
# Oceans of snails
Somehow while knowing that a) ‘sea snail’ was a concept, and b) beaches were strewn with sea shells, which involve various snail-reminiscent spirals, I failed to reach the stunning conclusion that the oceans are substantially inhabited by these kinds of characters:
*(Cross-posted from my* [*roam-blog*](https://roamresearch.com/#/app/hazard_blog/page/80OHImGsi)*)*
### **Productivity Origin Story**
Growing up, the one thing I wanted more than anything else was super powers. It wasn't until th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/f9fEoDg2PuAPAgKgW/how-to-absorb-a-shared-success-script-while-also-thinking |
# Self-Criticism Can Be Wrong And Harmful
**Preface**
> I am an [advocate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k5TTsuHovbeTWgszD/for-better-commenting-avoid-ponds) for constructive discourse.
>
> This essay is going to point out that some forms of self-criticism are harmful, both to the self-critic and to others. It wil... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tw8Tf2qKEzokbyqkM/self-criticism-can-be-wrong-and-harmful |
# Smuggled frames
*Cross-posted from* [*my blog*](https://artyom.brick.do/)*.*
*Status: I think the described concept would be more useful if I applied it more often — or at least noticed when I do apply it. Right now it's thinking out loud + "I wonder what will happen if I post on LW".*
* * *
Intro
=====
I think ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mTpyq59BsvThTqRY4/smuggled-frames |
# 2019 Review: Voting Results!
*You can see the full voting results here:* [*1000+ karma voters*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X4IKe2POOyYCb3hULxCPDoi90yKXNWLrTdsfKZwVNeQ/edit#gid=653382943) *(*[*All voters*](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1X4IKe2POOyYCb3hULxCPDoi90yKXNWLrTdsfKZwVNeQ/edit#gid=186425... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kdGSTBj3NA2Go3XaE/2019-review-voting-results |
# The 10,000-Hour Rule is a myth
*This post appeared first on the* [*EA Coaching blog*](https://effectivealtruismcoaching.com/blog/2021/1/31/the-10000-hour-rule-is-a-myth)*.*
The 10,000-Hour Rule for expertise popularized by Malcolm Gladwell is a funny case of citation telephone. Basically, the [rule](https://en.wiki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bjqsDJNRh25MNbpFK/the-10-000-hour-rule-is-a-myth |
# Believing in things you cannot see
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
There is a [scene](https://youtu.be/aIlKsyD6rSs?t=214) at the end of the movie Tenet, in which the main character accuses the villain of [solipsism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solipsism):
> Protagonist: “You d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/voKmdZmM8yKMeST7q/believing-in-things-you-cannot-see |
# Feedback for learning
I wish there were better (or more known to me) quantitative tests of skills that are good for me to have. I often find learning things when there is tight feedback pretty fun. For instance, I play [geography](https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/world) and [history](https://www.sporcle.com/games/kfa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ry5e3TqrWqeoLyBvW/feedback-for-learning |
# Prisoner's Dilemmas : Altruism :: Battles of the Sexes : Convention
Game Theory
-----------
A reminder, because I always need to remind myself:
| | B chooses a column | |
| --- | --- | --- |
| A chooses a row | A's payoff, B's payoff | A's payoff, B's payoff |
| A's payoff, B's payoff | A's payoff, B's payof... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nd4RhBvrA7AyZQtJh/prisoner-s-dilemmas-altruism-battles-of-the-sexes-convention |
# Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021
**Highlights**
--------------
1\. Veteran PredictIt trader writes a [pretty good guide](https://predictingpolitics.com/2021/01/31/how-to-get-good/) on how to make money on prediction markets.
2\. [Metaculus](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=consensus--forecast... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QfC4KHHN7jZgZdcvE/forecasting-newsletter-january-2021 |
# Lean Startup Reading Comprehension Quiz
Some colleagues and I recently read the [Lean Startup](http://theleanstartup.com/) together, and thought it'd be nice to have some reading comprehension questions to check if we took away the same things. Jacob made some questions, and I thought they might make an interesting ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9D45JhbRCg8Eyf7Wf/lean-startup-reading-comprehension-quiz |
# Deepmind has made a general inductor ("Making sense of sensory input")
> Our system \[the Apperception Engine\] is able to produce interpretable human-readable causal theories from very small amounts of data, because of the strong inductive bias provided by the unity conditions. A causal theory produced by our syste... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4pSqXrN3BLKhbRXpW/deepmind-has-made-a-general-inductor-making-sense-of-sensory |
# Vaccinated Socializing
The CDC [is asking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html) vaccinated people to continue to mask and social distance:
> Q: Do I need to wear a mask and avoid close contact with others if I have gotten 2 doses of the vaccine?
>
> A: Yes. Not enough information is current... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/38zWtfWoMDYfeZQkR/vaccinated-socializing |
# The World is Full of Wasted Motion
Introduction
------------
The 80/20 rule, or the [Pareto Principle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle) is a “rule” in economics, saying that 80% of the value comes from 20% of the effort. It is weird to call this a rule, when it’s such a fuzzy, ill-defined statement. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zBtKhGGvWDKcGj3S7/the-world-is-full-of-wasted-motion |
# #5: Making your cryonics arrangements official
*This is post 9 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*.*
* * *
Once you've got your funding method set up, you're not quite done. You'll need to enter into an official cryopreservation agreement with your cryonics org... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4dsv4X6MvGtHeQaSv/5-making-your-cryonics-arrangements-official |
# #6: Optional additional steps
*This is post 10 of 10 in my* [*cryonics signup sequence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/weBHYgBXg9thEQNEe)*.*
* * *
Introduction
============
The preceding posts cover everything you need to be fully signed up for cryonics. However, there are a lot of additional steps you may want to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CM5pPyuEqHNmCLbYS/6-optional-additional-steps |
# Bayesian inference on 1st order logic
$$
\newcommand{\ex}{\exists}
\newcommand{\fa}{\forall}
\newcommand{\es}{\emptyset}
\newcommand{\and}{\wedge}
\newcommand{\or}{\vee}
\newcommand{\xor}{\veebar}
\newcommand{\subs}{\subseteq}
\newcommand{\mc}{\mathcal}
\newcommand{\mf}{\mathfrak}
\newcommand{\mb}{\mathbb}
\newcomma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W8YscokXMiDnLKJ96/bayesian-inference-on-1st-order-logic |
# Reflections on the cryonics sequence
Three months ago, I had a dream my mom died while cryocrastinating, and I decided to finally start the process. I quickly found that it was ridiculously hard to figure out what the process even was, and I thought, "huh, someone should really write a guide on how to do this." And ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cEPC6Jk9ALRHPnGNZ/reflections-on-the-cryonics-sequence |
# Browser Audio Latency
Any time you are working with digital audio, you have to handle latency: how long does it take from when the audio enters the system until it leaves again? Special purpose professional-level audio hardware generally has been optimized for extremely low latency, often adding as little as 2ms. Ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ooXEzrX7Y9Go6D7st/browser-audio-latency |
# Covid cafes
I’m puzzled that during the pandemic so few cafes near me have moved to serving customers outside, by moving their ordering and payment apparatus to the doorway. I’ve seen about five cafes in San Francisco do this (few enough that none are conveniently close).
(I wanted to include a photo, but I actuall... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/63zMw9Hx4HFfBvsKE/covid-cafes |
# A Critique of Non-Obstruction
Epistemic status: either I’m confused, or non-obstruction isn’t what I want.
This is a response to Alex Turner’s [Non-Obstruction: A simple Concept Motivating Corrigibility](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Xts5wm3akbemk4pDa/non-obstruction-a-simple-concept-motivating-corrigibility... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZqfT5xTuNf6okrepY/a-critique-of-non-obstruction |
# Distinguishing claims about training vs deployment
Given the rapid progress in machine learning over the last decade in particular, I think that the core arguments about why AGI might be dangerous should be formulated primarily in terms of concepts from machine learning. One important way to do this is to distinguis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L9HcyaiWBLYe7vXid/distinguishing-claims-about-training-vs-deployment |
# Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems
Counterfactual planning is a design approach for creating a range of
safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI
systems which have Artificial General Intelligence.
My new paper
[Counterfactual Planning in AGI Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.00834)
intr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7EnZgaepSBwaZXA5y/counterfactual-planning-in-agi-systems |
# Late-talking kids and "Einstein syndrome"
*(See also my follow-up posts later:* [*More notes from raising a late-talking kid*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/txuzuDmM4re32inRa/more-notes-from-raising-a-late-talking-kid) *and*
[*Late-talking kid part 3: gestalt language learning*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WqjXPeALsLH6Dxfys/late-talking-kids-and-einstein-syndrome |
# [AN #136]: How well will GPT-N perform on downstream tasks?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadshe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HJMQg8MksHq5ipDpN/an-136-how-well-will-gpt-n-perform-on-downstream-tasks |
# Making Vaccine
Back in December, I [asked](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5BikXJnAJpSzDD9Qv/how-hard-would-it-be-to-make-a-covid-vaccine-for-oneself) how hard it would be to make a vaccine for oneself. Several people pointed to [radvac](https://radvac.org/). It was a best-case scenario: an open-source vaccine desig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine |
#
A Gentle Introduction on How to Use Anki to Improve Your Memory
*This article was initially published in [Superpowered Self](https://superpoweredself.com/gentle-introduction-how-to-use-anki-to-improve-your-memory), but after reading, and very much enjoying, [TurnTrout's](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/turntrout) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tY6xbqNhyAw8NEYo2/a-gentle-introduction-on-how-to-use-anki-to-improve-your |
# OpenAI: "Scaling Laws for Transfer", Hernandez et al.
OpenAI has released a paper on scaling laws for transfer learning from general English text to python code. [Author's tweet summary](https://twitter.com/Hernandez_Danny/status/1357035777406853128).
Abstract: "We study empirical scaling laws for transfer learning... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g3DvR7iFN7jE7nKEL/openai-scaling-laws-for-transfer-hernandez-et-al |
# Covid 2/4: Safe and Effective Vaccines Aplenty
The vaccine data is in. It’s pretty great.
We now have six known safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines: Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax, Johnson & Johnson and Sputnik.
Pfizer and Moderna are amazingly safe and effective. They have been approved and are being dist... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4HA3iRqv7twrjsRYB/covid-2-4-safe-and-effective-vaccines-aplenty |
# Why are clinical trials so expensive?
While I know that clinical trials such as the trials for vaccines cost hundreds of millions of dollar, I have a hard time understanding why they are so expensive. I read about clinical trials for a vaccine costing 10,000/study participant. Given that the trials are so expensive ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3F4Aop9HoQZmfS6kr/why-are-clinical-trials-so-expensive |
# Networking and Expert Consulting As Rationality Bottlenecks
**Introduction**
John Wentworth is on fire writing about the importance of [gears-level models](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEBbw2Bc2CnN2RMxy/gears-level-models-are-capital-investments) and the challenge that novices face in [evaluating the claims of e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C5NFX755pYSr4KT2s/networking-and-expert-consulting-as-rationality-bottlenecks |
# The Story of the Reichstag
When the Red Army was conquering Berlin, capture of Reichstag was seen as an important symbolic act. For Russians, the Reichstag was a symbol of the Nazi Germany. Nazis, however, never used the building, seeing it as a symbol of the despised democracy.
![](https://250bpm.com/blog:170/reic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sk3mhD3kSbxew4SeK/the-story-of-the-reichstag |
# Any layperson-accessible reference posts on how to operationalize beliefs ?
I'd like to find a shortish collection of advice, "do"s/"don't"s, aimed at... rationalist-adjacent folk?... for operationalizing beliefs into concrete anticipated experiences. My searches so far have been fruitless; I'd be grateful for any p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCTQqrJXPnxPZeiHj/any-layperson-accessible-reference-posts-on-how-to |
# Meetup: Daniel Kokotaljo on Commitment Races (Sunday Feb 7th, 12pm PT)
This Sunday at noon PT, Daniel Kokotaljo will be running a meetup focused on the [commitment races](lesswrong.com/posts/brXr7PJ2W4Na2EW2q/the-commitment-races-problem) problem in AI. What is it? How does it relate to broader issues like equilibri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/apoNiFovcpdbkbzns/meetup-daniel-kokotaljo-on-commitment-races-sunday-feb-7th |
# Notes on Frugality
This post examines the virtue of **frugality** (a.k.a. thrift, economy). I hope it will be helpful to people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
What is this virtue?
====================
Frugality concerns the efficiency of your economic choices: how you earn you livin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mk5qp6udZB4M6ijye/notes-on-frugality |
# Evolutions Building Evolutions: Layers of Generate and Test
*\[Epistemic Status: Early layers and the general framework seems firm (and substantially* [*Dennett-inspired*](https://everything2.com/title/Tower+of+generate-and-test)*), later parts are more speculative, but I've found them to be useful thinking tools.\]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HDAjZaeTtEYyDk93a/evolutions-building-evolutions-layers-of-generate-and-test |
# Three Stories about not Thinking too Hard
I.
5 pirates split a treasure of 100 gold coins. The crew splits their booty according to sacred pirate tradition: The oldest pirate proposes how to share the coins, and ALL pirates (including the oldest) vote for or against it. If at least half vote for it, then the coins ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/35XRxZzunC2mbyrB9/three-stories-about-not-thinking-too-hard |
# Open & Welcome Thread – February 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rL5ZKzNEd4HittvJK/open-and-welcome-thread-february-2021 |
# Learning Normativity: Language
Abram Demski [has been](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s/learning-normativity-a-research-agenda) writing about [Normativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCex9F9YptGMpk2sT/normativity). The suggested models so far have mostly looked at actions rather than semantics,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5eY6A4Zfu6rfeMfJS/learning-normativity-language |
# The Fear Experiments
I. INTRODUCTION
The physiological experience of fear is an interesting area for inquiry because of how these physical effects come to influence our decision making. I will start by saying that these are very personal notes that are much too raw to be seen as a formal paper or argument. I am cho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N5G8QAqHCgmnjMWuE/the-fear-experiments-1 |
# Intuitions about utilities
I'm just a layperson with a layperson's exposure to game theory problems, and I've long been really confused about how to think about them. This is the story of my confusion, and of how I think about utilities in game theory problems now. Very plausibly none of this is novel.
* * *
I wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bx3A5wT8YDFQJsowa/intuitions-about-utilities |
# Is the world becoming better?
*This is a linkpost from* [*https://invertedpassion.com/is-the-world-becoming-better/*](https://invertedpassion.com/is-the-world-becoming-better/)
This essay is inspired by the book [Factfulness](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34890015-factfulness) where the key idea explored is t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CMzR56r5fwfdxyud4/is-the-world-becoming-better |
# Current cryonics impressions
People around me often sign up for cryonics, and say that it is very important. My guess is that this argument for it, heavily inspired by [Waitbutwhy](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html)’s much longer piece, as well as years of talking to people around me and reading [their](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vn5rSvoQeuRafjA7/current-cryonics-impressions |
# Fake Frameworks for Zen Meditation (Summary of Sekida's Zen Training)
Meditation, and Zen meditation in particular, is hard to teach in the sense that most people cannot learn to do it as intended by simply reading or hearing about it. Instead they need to attempt it, talk about what happened with someone more exper... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4BBW3aHavmKxbQmof/fake-frameworks-for-zen-meditation-summary-of-sekida-s-zen |
# O2 Curve Review: Well Worth the Money
*\[Cross-posted from* [*Grand, Unified, Empty*](https://grandunifiedempty.com/2021/02/06/o2-curve-review-well-worth-the-money/)*. This is not an incentivized review; nobody at O2 even knows I’m writing this and none of the links have referral tracking. This is not medical advice... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6EMLi6z992Mm9oLcM/o2-curve-review-well-worth-the-money |
# Bring Back Free-Flow Valves
Over the past ~30y, manufacturers of small inflatables have switched to non-reflow valves. They should switch back to free-flow ones.
Here's what I'm talking about:
[](https://www.jefftk.com/oral-inflation-bite-valve-big.jpg)
See... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/azAmNk82Pk9dwqfPu/bring-back-free-flow-valves |
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