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# Massive consequences
Hypothesis: whenever you make a choice, the consequences of it are almost as likely to be bad as good, because the scale of the intended consequences is radically smaller than the scale of the chaotic unintended effects. (The expected outcome is still as positive as you think, it’s just a small ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wr3vEztbPnzZaC6a8/massive-consequences |
# Democracy, Bureaucracy, Central Banking
Huge parts of our societies are managed in non-democratic, bureaucratic way. (I am using the term bureaucracy in the old Weberian sense. If you are living in XXI. century feel free to replace the word bureaucracy with technocracy - although, I guess, in technocracy the bureauc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRkBQ32NMqgqmP6hW/democracy-bureaucracy-central-banking |
# #unclogtheFDA: a twitter storm to approve vaccines
The slow FDA approval and regulation process has slowed down vaccination and caused countless deaths. The AstraZeneca vaccine, which is already being distributed in the UK and Europe has been delayed until April despite robust safety data. J&J finished its stage III... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QYkMWMZqQg49SrTdf/unclogthefda-a-twitter-storm-to-approve-vaccines |
# Why I Am Not in Charge
Epistemic Status: Long piece written because the speed premium was too high to write a short one. Figured I should get my take on this out quickly.
(Note: This has been edited to reflect that I originally mixed up UpToDate with WebMD (since it’s been years since I’ve used either and was writi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cR7Zfrc4BtnFes46y/why-i-am-not-in-charge |
# How do you optimize productivity with respect to your menstrual cycle?
As the question asks, I am looking for productivity advice directly or indirectly related to one's menstrual cycle.
**Motivation:** This may seem like a gross or weirdly personal question but I think it's actually quite important. For example,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LR2GzrYdActDhZFxw/how-do-you-optimize-productivity-with-respect-to-your |
# History of the Public Suffix List
Are `forums.example.com` and `mail.example.com` the same site? I'd say yes, since they're probably run by the same people. What about `example-a.github.io` and `example-b.github.io`? I'd say no, since GitHub [allows anyone](https://pages.github.com/) to register pages like `username... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7NHfeKNAEXEJAF9w/history-of-the-public-suffix-list |
# Timeline of AI safety
[Here](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_AI_safety) is a timeline of AI safety that I originally wrote in 2017. The timeline has been updated several times since then, mostly by Vipul Naik.
Here are some highlights by year from the timeline since 2013:
| **Year** | **Highlights*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEfjw57Qw8mCzy36n/timeline-of-ai-safety |
# Killing the ants
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
### **I. The ants**
Recently, my housemates and I started seeing a lot of ants in the house. They marched in long lines along the edges of the basement and the bathrooms. A few showed up in the drawers. My girlfriend put out some ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zAGPk4EXaXSkKWY9a/killing-the-ants |
# Metric selection bias: why Moore's law is less important than you think
1\. Intro
---------
Before vaccine-induced-neo-techno-optimism was [all the rage](https://applieddivinitystudies.com/stagnation/), it was fashionable and popular (in some circles) to bemoan our era as one of disturbing technological stagnation.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QuiwfGH7AFfzETdDZ/metric-selection-bias-why-moore-s-law-is-less-important-than |
# Quadratic, not logarithmic
I recently realized a very simple, almost obvious bias, that I had because I never thought more about it. Moreover, quite a lot of people have this bias too.
What is worse in time of pandemic - to increase the number of your contacts from 0 to 1 or from 99 to 100? Intuitively, since we pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DNH5Fe5nvJJzmnfyp/quadratic-not-logarithmic |
# The distinction distance
People have a strong tendency to be different from one another (e.g. are horrified to be caught in the same dress, find it weird to order the same dishes as their companion without comment or to choose the same art for their living room). Yet they also have a strong tendency to conform.
The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8pYSDNSbXzHKM6TRc/the-distinction-distance |
# What metrics should I track when experimenting with sleep?
I used to sleep very little (6 hours or so) and function well with extremely good academic achievement. Instead of sleeping 8 hours now, I would love those extra 2 hours each day again but I'm not sure it won't affect my cognitive ability in the short term. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWW5QbpGqJoMB4rJ4/what-metrics-should-i-track-when-experimenting-with-sleep |
# Promoting Prediction Markets With Meaningless Internet-Point Badges
Intro
-----
*(*[*x-post*](https://1a3orn.com/sub/essays-prediction-market-popularity.html)*)*
I'd like to live in a world where prediction-market use is common and high-prestige.
The easiest way for this to happen is for prediction markets with m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uibJScDaiduQS7X4D/promoting-prediction-markets-with-meaningless-internet-point |
# How would free prediction markets have altered the pandemic?
In [WebMD and the Tragedy of Legible Expertise](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/webmd-and-the-tragedy-of-legible), Scott Alexander ends by saying that we should be grateful for the experts we have, but that prediction markets would still be better.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EG357EjN4CfkXoypS/how-would-free-prediction-markets-have-altered-the-pandemic |
# Epistemology of HCH
Introduction
============
HCH is a recursive acronym meaning “Humans consulting HCH”. Coincidentally, It’s also a concept coined by Paul Christiano, central in much of the reasoning around [Prosaic AI Alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/YTq4X6inEudiHkHDF/prosaic-ai-alignment). Yet fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CDSXoC54CjbXQNLGr/epistemology-of-hch |
# We Need Browsers as Platforms
It's fashionable to say that the web is bloated, and that the features built to support webapps make it too complex. You [can divide](https://ar.al/notes/the-documents-to-applications-continuum/) [the web](http://theappslab.com/2010/11/12/website-vs-web-app/) into:
* Documents: provi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iRS2AXFfhgoCdTMbx/we-need-browsers-as-platforms |
# Still Not in Charge
Epistemic Status: Speed premium, will hopefully flesh out more carefully in future
Previously: [Why I Am Not in Charge](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/02/07/why-i-am-not-in-charge/)
A brief update about my exchange with Scott from this past week.
After [Scott Alexander wrote a post](https:/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BbxHGqhxQ9f6zsNac/still-not-in-charge |
# Book review: The Geography of Thought
Book review: The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think
Differently\... and Why, by Richard E. Nisbett.
It is often said that travel is a good way to improve one\'s
understanding of other cultures.
The Geography of Thought discredits that saying, by being ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FM5PwzKaXojcktEue/book-review-the-geography-of-thought |
# Fixing The Good Regulator Theorem
Conant & Ashby’s “[Every Good Regulator Of A System Must Be A Model Of That System](http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/books/Conant_Ashby.pdf)” opens with:
> The design of a complex regulator often includes the making of a model of the system to be regulated. The making of such a model has h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dx9LoqsEh3gHNJMDk/fixing-the-good-regulator-theorem |
# Notes on Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" (1960)
*I'm crossposting this* [*from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/b6qNWYAiJCRRBSoDX/notes-on-schelling-s-strategy-of-conflict-1960)*, due to* [*Habryka sort-of suggesting doing so*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EMKf4Gyee7BsY2RP8/mi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5gPENBkSRbuRkN9qZ/notes-on-schelling-s-strategy-of-conflict-1960 |
# A great hard day
(Draft from a while ago, lightly edited.)
There were times when I was younger that I used to fantasize about having a friend at all, let alone a boyfriend. And there were times when I thought that if I could just figure out how to make life consistently bearable, I’d really be onto something. So wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBhHW9T6kQtdgCxBG/a-great-hard-day |
# We got what's needed for COVID-19 vaccination completely wrong
I would summarize the leading thought in 2020 on vaccination on LessWrong and the review that's now popular in the mainstream as:
> New vaccination technology like [mRNA-based vaccines](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SQDKMFmJToYqhZT5d/mrna-vaccine-deve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qEo6LsAtGrBNscFgX/we-got-what-s-needed-for-covid-19-vaccination-completely |
# [AN #137]: Quantifying the benefits of pretraining on downstream task performance
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85HgXZvNdTdfRJhar/an-137-quantifying-the-benefits-of-pretraining-on-downstream |
# Unwitting cult leaders
An insight that I’d kind of already had, but which [this interview with Michael Taft](https://teachingmeditation.buzzsprout.com/1660645/7620904-michael-taft-how-not-to-become-guru) (relevant section starts at about 32 minutes) helped crystallize:
We tend to think of a “cult leader” as someone... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o9dnstYoc7cwpgdhg/unwitting-cult-leaders |
# In balance and flux
Someone more familiar with ecology recently noted to me that it used to be a popular view that nature was ‘in balance’ and had some equilibrium state, that it should be returned to. Whereas the new understanding is that there was never an equilibrium state. Natural systems are always changing. An... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J22uJQL3fBGA379oB/in-balance-and-flux |
# Speedrunning my Morning Makes the Coffee Taste Weird
For the first time in I can't remember how long, I failed to set a wakeup alarm on a workday. I've been covering an emergency vacation for a co-worker, and just forgot to set the alarm on a day I don't normally work. Fortunately, I also have a backup plan: I ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CBfjQKSiXPXzep2AB/speedrunning-my-morning-makes-the-coffee-taste-weird |
# Covid 2/11: As Expected
Nothing both unexpected and important happened this week, other than that we might be on the verge of at least partially solving obesity.
There’s plenty else to talk about, but everything was on trend. That doesn’t mean my predictions were perfect or the speed of trends didn’t give us a few ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQACEuWpkSyRgHC4p/covid-2-11-as-expected |
# Participating in a Covid-19 Vaccine Trial
I live near Stony Brook University, which has a well-known hospital and medical school. About a month ago I signed up to participate in research related to Covid-19. As a work-from-homer, this was a way I could reasonably get a vaccine without resorting to “skipping the line... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CavaEssg3vustvM2A/participating-in-a-covid-19-vaccine-trial |
# John Wentworth on "Tabooing 'Should' Exercise" [Sunday Meetup 1pm]
*Note: this meetup is an hour later than usual, due to the* [*SSC meetup*](https://www.lesswrong.com/events/upcjRf8we4ayZaNoZ/rohin-shah-at-the-ssc-online-meetup) *also being hosted in the Garden a few hours earlier.*
Claim: moral/status/value judge... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/EKGC73CWvgmSmuNeR/john-wentworth-on-tabooing-should-exercise-sunday-meetup-1pm |
# The art of caring what people think
People care what people think. People often strive to not care what people think. People sometimes appear to succeed.
My working model though is that it is nearly impossible for a normal person to not care what people think in a prolonged way, but that ‘people’ doesn’t mean all p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZqfwCt9XxHDdw63E9/the-art-of-caring-what-people-think |
# Mapping the Conceptual Territory in AI Existential Safety and Alignment
*[(Crossposted from my blog)](https://jbkjr.me/posts/2020/12/mapping_conceptual_territory_AI_safety_alignment/)*
Throughout my studies in alignment and AI-related existential risks, I’ve found it helpful to build a mental map of the field and h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HEZgGBZTpT4Bov7nH/mapping-the-conceptual-territory-in-ai-existential-safety |
# What does the FDA actually do between getting the trial results and having their meeting?
It seems that for approving vaccines there's a gap of weeks between the drug company finishing their trial and giving the data to the FDA and the FDA actually making the decision to approve the vaccine. What does the FDA do dur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zRmJuW8QL5h7EmmK7/what-does-the-fda-actually-do-between-getting-the-trial |
# Tournesol, YouTube and AI Risk
Introduction
============
[Tournesol](https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQNGCC5TLYiCAr0IBMWoYQ6lpdG62N1whXkcXM-C9zeGbNHGexKpYGnUGPywVMPvSxjtgcN7sEM9gn0/pub) is a research project and an app aiming at building a large and varied database of preference judgements by experts on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8q2ySr7yxx7MSR35i/tournesol-youtube-and-ai-risk |
# Potential factors in Bell Labs' intellectual progress, Pt. 1
*Epistemic status: these are notes from a popular account filtered through my own existing beliefs. Here, I am largely trusting the book to report true things and not misrepresent them, though, in fact, I suspect the book is trying to create a certain nar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t2SaWHx49h9chdA8K/potential-factors-in-bell-labs-intellectual-progress-pt-1 |
# Watching themselves
We've been very lucky with childcare this pandemic. We had an au pair, so when schools closed suddenly on a Wednesday in early March we had live-in child care for Lily (6y) and Anna (4y). Having our children well taken care of without risking exposure outside the home or requiring either of the p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8BcaHww8mPQzQw5A8/watching-themselves |
# Your Cheerful Price
There's a concept I draw on often in social interactions. I've been calling it the "happy price", but that is [originally terminology by Michael Ellsberg](https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelellsberg/2014/09/19/happy-price-vs-sad-price/) with subtly different implications. So I now fork off the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MzKKi7niyEqkBPnyu/your-cheerful-price |
# Things a Katja-society might try (Part 2)
([Part 1](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2020/11/21/things-society-might-try-if-it-only-contained-copies-of-me-1.html))
1. **Carefully structured and maintained arguments for any interesting claims that people believe.** For instance, I would like to see the argument fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PknsaThnyip73txnb/things-a-katja-society-might-try-part-2 |
# Is MIRI actually hiring and does Buck Shlegeris still work for you?
I applied to MIRI software engineer position ~~last year~~ on 26 February 2020. The first stage of the interview was a Triplebyte quiz. Triplebyte said I passed it "particularly well" and qualify for Fast Track program. However, Buck Shlegeris said ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y2qaZ7X2jHzqK84TZ/is-miri-actually-hiring-and-does-buck-shlegeris-still-work |
# Apply to Effective Altruism Funds now
I expect EA Funds – and the Long-Term Future Fund in particular – to be of interest to people on LessWrong, so I'm crossposting my [EA Forum post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NfkdSooNiHcdCBSJs/apply-to-ea-funds-now-1) with the excerpts that seem most relevant:
Sum... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esfZCw4YQ4eDxa9kB/apply-to-effective-altruism-funds-now |
# some random parenting ideas
These have been bouncing around in my head for years. I finally wrote them down and showed them to a friend and he said I should post it.
Disclaimers:
* Written from a [WEIRD](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/33YYcoWwtmqzAq9QR/beware-of-weird-psychological-samples) cultural background,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6vPvpTZTBqe6evmKL/some-random-parenting-ideas |
# How Should We Respond to Cade Metz?
The Cade Metz article on Slate Star Codex [is out.](https://web.archive.org/web/20210213173807/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/13/technology/slate-star-codex-rationalists.html)
It seems valuable for us to have a discussion about our reactions to it. Also what we want to do about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ShHf2fcwKWiTvoQig/how-should-we-respond-to-cade-metz |
# Recruiting for esports experiment
I am interested in conducting an experiment involving learning & teaching gaming. I am recruiting either 6 or 12 participants to attempt to learn a video game intensively for around 2 weeks. This is not paid either way (I am not paying for volunteers, and you are not paying for coac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HxZpnGrK8c5ifK6wc/recruiting-for-esports-experiment |
# The Economics of Media
When I was a kid I thought the news came from "investigative reporters" like Clark Kent were who were paid to research stories. Since then, I have gotten my startup on national television, placed a press release into the world news, discussed biological warfare as a podcast guest, written a bl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Y5yYm5gJTA7Ln6PE/the-economics-of-media |
# The ecology of conviction
Supposing that [sincerity has declined](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2020/11/30/sincerity-trends.html), why?
It feels natural to me that sincere enthusiasms should be rare relative to criticism and half-heartedness. But I would have thought this was born of fairly basic features of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NpWBa8gpdWrM3zEeK/the-ecology-of-conviction |
# Five examples
I often find it difficult to think about things without concrete, realistic examples to latch on to. Here are five examples of this.
1) [Your Cheerful Price](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MzKKi7niyEqkBPnyu/your-cheerful-price)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pmLhtDSrXTYHedCQk/five-examples |
# This is my 100ᵗʰ post on Less Wrong
I started blogging one and a half years ago. Blogging has helped my life in many ways. I have met interesting people online I would never have encountered in meatspace. I have received educated feedback on esoteric topics. I have shared fun projects like [*Luna Lovegood and the Ch... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3JCbvy4RQu2GZcJv2/this-is-my-100-post-on-less-wrong |
# Bucket Brigade Updates
I've continued working on [Bucket Brigade](https://echo.jefftk.com), and wanted to write up a summary of the changes since my [last update](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bucket-brigade-video) in early January. While there are still [features I'd like to add](https://github.com/gwillen/solstice-audi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kRTyqHdFkfiPDNKCz/bucket-brigade-updates |
# “PR” is corrosive; “reputation” is not.
This is in some sense a small detail, but one important enough to be worth write-up and critique: AFAICT, “PR” is a corrupt concept, in the sense that if you try to “navigate PR concerns” about yourself / your organization / your cause area / etc., the concept will guide you ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SWxnP5LZeJzuT3ccd/pr-is-corrosive-reputation-is-not |
# Notes on Henrich's "The WEIRDest People in the World" (2020)
[*Cross-posted to the Effective Altruism Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7QiXR2dv8KL4fkf9D/notes-on-henrich-s-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world-2020) *(but with a brand new and improved structure)*
I recently finished reading Henrich's 20... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gcPqn7DKbKcoRYHfK/notes-on-henrich-s-the-weirdest-people-in-the-world-2020 |
# The Future of Nuclear Arms Control?
In the early Cold War, weapons were not very accurate and intelligence collection often wasn’t very good or up to date. If you were a war planner, the advent of the hydrogen bomb solved a lot of problems for you: even if you didn’t know exactly where a target was, and even if your... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jMCZighedoLzdvuQS/the-future-of-nuclear-arms-control |
# The Median is Less than the Average
In [*The Economics of Media*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Y5yYm5gJTA7Ln6PE/the-economics-of-media) I discussed how news is written by large organizations including businesses, governments and major political parties.
The same was true in the age of paper media except with th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oD9PFGuWKomBxsnXP/the-median-is-less-than-the-average |
# What didn’t happen
I have a [secret fiction blog](https://whatdidnthappen.wordpress.com/), which I intermittently mean to publish things on, but apparently haven’t now in over ten years, which seems like a reasonable point at which to make it less secret. [Here](https://whatdidnthappen.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/i/) i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5A2RKafXajXuywsqy/what-didn-t-happen |
# Contact with reality
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
In thought experiments descended from Nozick’s classic “[experience machine,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_machine#:~:text=The%20experience%20machine%20or%20pleasure,Examined%20Life%20(Chapter%20X).)” you consider h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7f58E8A85xLgWuqG/contact-with-reality |
# Semaglutide is cool, but no one wants to talk about b. animalis ssp. lactis?
*\[**Epistemic status**: I am not a doctor and this is not medical advice, but there are two RCTs supporting this. Also I talk about poop.\]*
Like many others, I've been excitedly reading about semaglutide over the last few days. For someo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z6qTLyvpLraSZqar6/semaglutide-is-cool-but-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-b |
# Notes on Amiability
This post examines the virtue of **amiability** (and closely-related virtues like friendliness, geniality, agreeableness, conviviality, affability, niceness, affection, and warmth). I mean to explore what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than to express my own opinions about ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EWpb7KmSSw8gbhH8i/notes-on-amiability |
# KAnon
There's a dangerous conspiracy theory spreading, called "[KAnon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-anonymity)" by its adherents. Its claims, at their core, come down to the belief that there is a "K" great enough to protect us from attacks by the forces of deanonymization. While followers often make contradictor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZXaPBovkDQFcKBoFj/kanon |
# Heuristic: Replace "No Evidence" with "No Reason"
The phrase "no evidence to suggest" has been used as an excuse to avoid inaction in the face of what is in fact ample evidence.
Health authorities continued bumbling response to coronavirus has really served to highlight this, starting right at the beginning:
[htt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gnab3dRhBbZDyg4RA/heuristic-replace-no-evidence-with-no-reason |
# Mathematical Models of Progress?
I would be interested in collecting a bunch of examples of mathematical modeling of progress. I think there are probably several of these here, but I don't expect to be able to find all of them myself. I'm also interested to know about any models like this elsewhere.
I was reading t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ysQEJ8tvm8KYc76D5/mathematical-models-of-progress |
# Remember that to value something infinitely is usually to give it a finite dollar value
Just an occasional reminder that if you value something so much that you don’t want to destroy it for nothing, then you’ve got to put a finite dollar value on it. Things just can’t be infinitely more important than other things, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdMtyWoQBLrEqK8dE/remember-that-to-value-something-infinitely-is-usually-to |
# Heliocentrism in the ancient era
*\[epistemic status: mainly based on Lucio Russo's papers, and on my personal research on the sources\]*
**TL;DR:** Although it is widely believed that Aristarchus' heliocentric theory was rejected by his contemporaries, we do not have much evidence supporting this belief. We have t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/miHH5c9sQvRL8xyjk/heliocentrism-in-the-ancient-era |
# Suggestions of posts on the AF to review
How does one write a good and useful review of a technical post on the Alignment Forum?
I don’t know. Like many people, I tend to comment and give feedback on posts closely related to my own research, or to write down my own ideas when reading the paper. Yet this is quite di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6hdxTTPWF2iAbXjAb/suggestions-of-posts-on-the-af-to-review |
# Generalised models as a category
# Naming the "generalised" models$\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcommand{\L}{\mathcal{L}}\newcommand{\wF}{\overline{\F}}\newcommand{\suml}{\sum\limits}$
In this post, I'll apply some mathematical ri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nQxqSsHfexivsd6vB/generalised-models-as-a-category |
# Cartesian frames as generalised models
Scott [presented](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames) Cartesian frames/Chu spaces as follows:$\newcommand{\E}{\mathcal{E}}\newcommand{\M}{\mathcal{M}}\newcommand{\W}{\mathcal{W}}\newcommand{\F}{\mathcal{F}}\newcommand{\L}{\mathcal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wiQeYuQPwSypXXFar/cartesian-frames-as-generalised-models |
# Disentangling Corrigibility: 2015-2021
Since the term *corrigibility*
[was introduced in
2015](https://intelligence.org/files/Corrigibility.pdf),
there has been a lot of discussion about corrigibility, [on this
forum](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/corrigibility) and elsewhere.
In this post, I have tied to disentan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MiYkTp6QYKXdJbchu/disentangling-corrigibility-2015-2021 |
# Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation
### *EDIT (4/20/21): I am occasionally updating* [*this post at this linked Google Doc*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RANk7IxbgT7wFQno14n71_nPL9YGTJGOm_qaitrTpcM/edit#) *with new information. You may wish to instead read this post there.*
Introduc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jHnFBHrwiNb5xvLBM/second-citizenships-residencies-and-or-temporary-relocation |
# Reasonable ways for an average LW retail investor to get upside risk?
By "upside risk" I mean: more upside risk than just holding the market.
By "reasonable" I mean: will not require an arbitrarily long education process to understand/carry out. I work a day job and have other commitments in my life, and I'm no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sc6aDyuBCCwyCv2jZ/reasonable-ways-for-an-average-lw-retail-investor-to-get |
# How poor is US vaccine response by comparison to other countries?
Epistemic status: unapologetically US-centric. Noticing that I am confused, and hoping the internet will explain things.
SECTION I: OBSERVATIONS
=======================
Many places I follow have been saying for a long time that US vaccine procureme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exiipCvFaJHe4nCWj/how-poor-is-us-vaccine-response-by-comparison-to-other |
# The feeling of breaking an Overton window
Epistemic status: real but incomplete observations.
In late February of 2020, I went to the grocery store at 2am with my husband (emptiest time), and we bought ~$1k of mostly canned or dry goods. We were the only customers in line. The cashier seemed interested in our pur... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bzhGBHrGrFfQss4Df/the-feeling-of-breaking-an-overton-window |
# Training sweetness
_(This is my attempt to summarize the ‘Taste & Shaping’ module in a [CFAR](https://www.rationality.org/) 2018 participant handbook I have, in order to understand it better (later version available online [here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UZYBtOJ3QZ7FTI_4eKjVzBSNUqC_Uba3/view)). It may be bas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YwxPpZkfqjShQmn4T/training-sweetness |
# Overconfidence is Deceit
*Author's note: This essay was written as part of an effort to say more of the simple and straightforward things loudly and clearly, and to actually lay out arguments even for concepts which feel quite intuitive to a lot of people, for the sake of those who don't "get it" at first glance. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WsvpkCekuxYSkwsuG/overconfidence-is-deceit |
# Are we prepared for Solar Storms?
The COVID19- Pandemic has brought one awful fact to global attention:
The Powers that Be are woefully unprepared for once-in-century global risks.
Are we prepared for Solar Storms (solar flares, coronal mass ejection events, etc)?
A basic summary:
A more advanced explanation (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GH8vhGH6doNWiHirB/are-we-prepared-for-solar-storms |
# [AN #138]: Why AI governance should find problems rather than just solving them
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJqtRWnNRLaqJ8RCx/an-138-why-ai-governance-should-find-problems-rather-than |
# Covid: CDC Issues New Guidance on Opening Schools
Author’s Note: This was originally the title topic of this week’s Covid post (as ‘School Daze’), but the post was getting long and this is its own issue, so I’m moving the guidelines discussion to its own post.
As usual, all discussions of school are confusing for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GgeqvAEvuJTG7uQBe/covid-cdc-issues-new-guidance-on-opening-schools |
# The Problem with Giving Advice
*Epistemic Status: I'm highly confident this is a phenomenon that occurs with a lot of advice people give, but I'm quite uncertain about the best way to deal with it when trying to give advice to more than one person.*
The main thing people fail to consider when giving advice is that ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mFRsKXd2nfqhs92k6/the-problem-with-giving-advice |
# AXRP Episode 4 - Risks from Learned Optimization with Evan Hubinger
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1nCGAzCrho&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=4)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EszCTbovFfpJd5C8N/axrp-episode-4-risks-from-learned-optimization-with-evan |
# Shortcuts With Chained Probabilities
Let's say you're considering an activity with a risk of death of one in a million. If you do it twice, is your risk two in a million?
Technically, it's just under:
1 - (1 - 1/1,000,000)^2 = ~2/1,000,001
This is quite close! Approximating `1 - (1-p)^2` as `p*2` was only off by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jQJjocMjSeq4dc9zc/shortcuts-with-chained-probabilities |
# Neck abacus
My [points for anxiety](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/2020/12/01/points-for-anxiety.html) system continued to help, but was encumbered by the friction of getting my phone out to mark points. Thus I have turned to wearable abaci.
 Scott Alexander also shared some good thoughts on Covid-19 in two new posts, and I d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kc47jBiHnLD3FqYC/covid-2-18-vaccines-still-work |
# Formal Solution to the Inner Alignment Problem
We've written a [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.08686) on online imitation learning, and our construction allows us to bound the extent to which mesa-optimizers could accomplish anything. This is not to say it will definitely be easy to eliminate mesa-optimizers in p... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CnruhwFGQBThvgJiX/formal-solution-to-the-inner-alignment-problem |
# Utility Maximization = Description Length Minimization
There’s a useful intuitive notion of “optimization” as pushing the world into a small set of states, starting from any of a large number of states. Visually:
* Player 2 may Accept or Reject this split. If Player... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTdfMoiyDPvnEPCSM/the-ultimatum-game |
# Oliver Sipple
The other day I read Wikipedia arguably too much, and consequently came to know the story of Oliver Sipple. Here’s my summary of the story according to [these](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Sipple) [two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Gerald_Ford_in_San_Francisco) Wikip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vaD6NsdLgNNS8Q5mq/oliver-sipple |
# Bedtime reminiscences
Things that I imagine would be cool to do with my kids (if I manage to have some): taking bedtime as a moment to reminisce about the day together.
Recalling enjoyable moments is by itself enjoyable. So ask, what parts of the day did you like? What were some good moments? What about it was enjo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YPwyaSAikKESTFnWN/bedtime-reminiscences |
# Forecasting Prize Results
The "Forecasting Innovations Prize" was announced on the 15th of November of 2020 on the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) and on [LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sGLHDk99MtYF8t6Qb/forecasting-prize-results |
# Experientialist Theories of Well-Being
[This piece was written by Aidan Mackenzie and originally posted on QRI's website.](https://www.qualiaresearchinstitute.org/blog/experientialist-theories-of-well-being)
*Aidan is a recent graduate of Cornell University with a BA in philosophy and is a visiting research fellow ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yp2vNKNE7WFCyseGk/experientialist-theories-of-well-being |
# Scott and Rohin doublecrux on AI with human models
In 2019, Scott Garrabrant wrote about how we might want safe AGI that did NOT use models of humans. Rohin Sha commented about some disagreements with Scott's frame.
This Sunday, they'll meet for a public doublecrux exploring their disagreements.
You can read the o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/9TWGExTBXawxo7or6/scott-and-rohin-doublecrux-on-ai-with-human-models |
# Coffee trucks: a brilliant idea that someone should do?
I sometimes wonder if the world should have coffee trucks, like ice cream trucks, roaming the street. Especially when half the population is working from home.
Coffee seems ideal for this because:
1. you can probably prepare it fresh in a briefly stopping ve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhnjB5MiLuYxmH9F9/coffee-trucks-a-brilliant-idea-that-someone-should-do |
# The Kelly Criterion in 3D
The Kelly Criterion is a gambling strategy which maximizes the logarithm of your expected wealth. The Kelly Criterion tells you what fraction $f^*$ of your bankroll to wager. It is a function of the net fractional odds[^1] received $b>0$ and the probability of a win $p\in(0,1)$.
[^1]: The ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iboaiByhPxfvYgFoB/the-kelly-criterion-in-3d |
# Google’s Ethical AI team and AI Safety
*cross-posted from* [*my blog*](https://www.magfrump.net/blog/googles-ethical-ai-team-and-ai-safety)
Background on the events
------------------------
I have been [thinking about this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mBKSS4M9pcXKNgR8Z/open-and-welcome-thread-december-2020?com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WNkcqhAQPPiDjSDaB/google-s-ethical-ai-team-and-ai-safety-1 |
# On the Nature of Reputation
_Abstract: Reputation tokens (e.g. brands, but lot of other things as well) are vessels to store reputation. They are free to create but expensive to fill with trust. Consumers use them to deal with information overload. Producers use them to manipulate common knowledge. Also, a certain k... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XDyva7BjMCAq5Nkhy/on-the-nature-of-reputation |
# Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy on Ethics of Artificial Intelligence
Table of contents:
> 1. [The Relevance of AI for Ethics](https://iep.utm.edu/ethic-ai/#H1)
> 1. [What is AI?](https://iep.utm.edu/ethic-ai/#SH1a)
> 2. [Its Ethical Relevance](https://iep.utm.edu/ethic-ai/#SH1b)
> 2. [Main Debates](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LdH9w67W6jQaoBm2T/internet-encyclopedia-of-philosophy-on-ethics-of-artificial |
# What are the most powerful lotuses?
Bryan Caplan writes an argument against Universal Basic Income: [https://www.econlib.org/from-ubi-to-anomia/.](https://www.econlib.org/from-ubi-to-anomia/.)
To sum up, the majority of the people not in the labor force spend most of their time on screens, and this is bad for their... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hgPwy9QiZak6HsuXd/what-are-the-most-powerful-lotuses |
# How my school gamed the stats
I was reading the Slate Star Codex [review](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-cult-of-smart) of The Cult of Smart. Part of it discusses charter vs state schools and the allegations of fraud of various kinds undermining charter schools record of better achievement. Re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yv9aj9bWD5H7aaDdy/how-my-school-gamed-the-stats |
# Failed Vegan Choux Experiments
Many kinds of pastry can be made vegan quite easily. Puff pastry, which is thin layers of dough and fat, works very well with various plant-based fats and pre-made puff sheets are very often vegan. Lately, however, I've been excited about choux pastry.
Choux pastry is what makes eclai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SWPWjp6QsWDGZnD88/failed-vegan-choux-experiments |
# The Prototypical Negotiation Game
Suppose you want to meet up with someone in New York City. You did not arrange a time and place beforehand, and have no way to communicate. Where and when do you go to maximize your chances of meeting? Empirically, the most popular answer is the Empire State Building, at noon. (Does... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BA5nbjtyCT3EJCxJi/the-prototypical-negotiation-game |
# Utilitarian doppelgangers vs. making everything smell like bananas
\[epistemic status: attempt to quickly summarize how I feel about efforts to [promote](http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/episode-252-understanding-moral-disagreements-jonathan-haidt.html) more diverse moral foundations, [push back against](ht... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9N4ZmbSqjgghDzcfW/utilitarian-doppelgangers-vs-making-everything-smell-like |
# Curing Sleep: My Experiences Doing Cowboy Science
*Epistemic status: Subjective report describing youthful exuberance. The actual experimentation part of this was very badly executed.*
In light of the recent [homemade peptide vaccine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine), this is a writ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cfRHPHdgpNcSEcY5y/curing-sleep-my-experiences-doing-cowboy-science |
# Principles of Agile Rationalism
*We follow these principles:*
Our highest priority is to seek cruxes
through early and continuous delivery
of unfiltered evidence.
Welcome changing beliefs, even late in
writing. Agile rationality updates beliefs for
our culture's collective intelligence.
Deliver useful ide... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fuRBqcCGj5bzfLBfv/principles-of-agile-rationalism |
# Remarks on morality, shuddering, judging, friendship and the law
I lately listened to Julia Galef and Jonathan Haidt [discuss](http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/episode-252-understanding-moral-disagreements-jonathan-haidt.html) Haidt’s theorized palate of ‘moral foundations’—basic flavors of moral motivation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SgFCMPGPTdT6Aem8S/remarks-on-morality-shuddering-judging-friendship-and-the |
# Intro to the Wedding Sequence
Our wedding was intended to be a ceremony of commitment, to each other, and also to our values. We ([Ruben Bloom](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ruby) and [Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/swimmer963)) got married in the Lawrence Hall of Science planetarium in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn/intro-to-the-wedding-sequence |
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