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# [Ceremony Intro + ] Darkness
*This is the first speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn/intro-to-the-wedding-sequence) *for more info. The speech was given by* [*Nate Soares*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/so8res)*.*
* ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qFBf2aDT2oYNWKFaR/ceremony-intro-darkness |
# Triumph & Hope: How Far Humanity Has Come
*This is the second speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info. The speech was written by* [*Jess Whittlestone*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/jess-whittlestone) *an... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xjzEbogdheFqhdszW/triumph-and-hope-how-far-humanity-has-come |
# Exponential growth is the baseline
When we consider [the question of “stagnation,”](https://rootsofprogress.org/technological-stagnation) we are assuming an implicit answer to an underlying question: relative to what? What should we expect?
I have a simple answer: **Our baseline expectation should be no less than e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzvZ3M3vnAKyEtWxs/exponential-growth-is-the-baseline |
# What's your best alternate history utopia?
Rules:
* Same level of technology as today
* Basic human psychology is the same
* But you are allowed to change prevalent institutions, cultural assumptions etc.
So e.g. if you think that the modern school system is oppressive and traumatizing, you can describe a world t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/85gDTcNDNjGepEcJk/what-s-your-best-alternate-history-utopia |
# Science Fiction
This morning (Amman time) I taught a class to a middle school in Jordan. It was the opening to a big daylong event where the parents were invited and the superintendant said some formal words.
Ostensibly, my lecture was about design in the COVID-19 world. That was the pretext from which I obtained t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mtH6xczWzKJrTnsqS/science-fiction |
# Best way to write a bicolor article on Less Wrong?
I am planning to write an article that would use *two colors* to distinguish between "map" and "territory", kinda like in [*The Neverending Story*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Neverending_Story). In other words, instead of:
> The sentence 'snow is white' is t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aqX8LJdz2AWFj342R/best-way-to-write-a-bicolor-article-on-less-wrong |
# Overcoming Helplessness
Introduction
------------
A concept that I find extremely useful for understanding my life and failure modes is the notion of **helplessness**. Helplessness is when I have a problem in my life that I don’t even _try_ to solve. The problem feels big and overwhelming, and I have no idea where ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnhkrrkmWkSa8Rf8Q/overcoming-helplessness |
# Calculating Kelly
Jacob Falcovich tells us that we should [Kelly bet on everything](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3pjv6uDvY9sqmsnvY/kelly-bet-on-everything). I [discuss](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NuyLTCD6v5nayenr4/kelly-bet-or-update) whether we should Kelly bet when we'd normally make small-money bets on di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zeviiJFwzBbr3sReN/calculating-kelly |
# The slopes to common sense
The slopes to common sense
==========================
Usually, I try to outline the thing I'm talking about first. But in this case, it's best to start with an example.
i - Why we sleep
----------------
In 2017 the book "[Why We Sleep](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_We_Sleep)" was pu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4AcjRvoyrikQmnYnj/the-slopes-to-common-sense |
# Media Bias
In the days following confirmed person-to-person transmission of COVID in the United States, my company went on *Fox News* to promote ourselves. What makes this otherwise bog-standard [collusion between business and media](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9Y5yYm5gJTA7Ln6PE/the-economics-of-media) interesti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/etswsHBHLaE8wAt6H/media-bias-1 |
# Aim to get rejected often
*This is a linkpost for https://amirbolous.com/posts/rejection*
- [Introduction](#introduction)
- [Why it's ok to get rejected](#why-its-ok-to-get-rejected)
- [Why you should get rejected often](#why-you-should-get-rejected-often)
- [Closing Thoughts](#closing-thoughts)
## Introduction
I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7aYGG2HYREtbA5yta/aim-to-get-rejected-often |
# The Comprehension Curve
**Tl;Dr:** You might comprehend and learn more quickly by *slowing down* your reading, rather than by *speeding it up.* This post is mainly about laying down some terminology that I think is conceptually clarifying in thinking about learning, comprehension and reading speed.
**Speed Reading*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bxkEshxKnRde97bmW/the-comprehension-curve |
# I’m a 19-year-old Terminal Patient. Medical Brain Preservation Should not be Difficult to Discuss or Adopt
From the BPF blog (of which I’m a volunteer) here’s the story of a kid with a terminal illness who is holding out for the development of brain preservation for future uploading. In the comments he justifies not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JdZ8yumTpkbBBGAqr/i-m-a-19-year-old-terminal-patient-medical-brain |
# Support vs Advice & Holding Off Solutions
What I'm calling *support vs advice* is a fairly standard division. Both kinds of discussion start with one person talking about something that bothers them. In a *support* conversation, they're looking for empathy, and the other person shows that they care by listening, sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CARMmQRGCBKDbeNh9/support-vs-advice-and-holding-off-solutions |
# Kelly isn't (just) about logarithmic utility
Edit: The original version of this was titled without the "(just)". I also regret the first 4 lines, but I'm leaving them in for posterity's sake. I also think that [johnswentworth](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmpYKwqfMkWtywkKZ/kelly-isn-t-about-logarithmic-utility?co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmpYKwqfMkWtywkKZ/kelly-isn-t-just-about-logarithmic-utility |
# Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
[Scott Alexander has given his verdict on our predictions for Covid from April 2020](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid).
This seems like an excellent opportunity to reflect on those predictions. I’ll also attempt to render my verdict... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRuTeLm7oEfxxBFRF/judging-our-april-2020-covid-19-predictions |
# When you already know the answer - Using your Inner Simulator
_I first encountered the idea of Inner Simulators at a [CFAR workshop](http://rationality.org/). Credit to them, and read the relevant chapter of_ [_their Handbook_](https://rationality.org/resources/handbook/) _to see their take. If you’re already famili... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zDXkd4sXaqvgQibvn/when-you-already-know-the-answer-using-your-inner-simulator |
# Survey on cortical uniformity - an expert amplification exercise
**In short:** We designed a survey to gauge the opinion of expert neuroscientists about the degree of uniformity in the human cortex. The survey was sent to 135 experts, of which only 6 responded. Since we do not consider this a representative sample, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jcCMsg46RhcZJrTxP/survey-on-cortical-uniformity-an-expert-amplification |
# Avoid Contentious Terms
A succinct term for a concept is great, but only if everyone involved views it similarly. If you're trying to write something persuasive, controversial terms are traps that can derail discussion and make finding common ground harder. Consider limiting yourself to well understood terms to avoi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6W8Jdcc2Dq4uyE7Hi/avoid-contentious-terms |
# The Grandest Vision for Humanity (Light)
*This is the third speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info. The speech was given by Riva-Melissa Tez.*
* * *
***Tara descends from podium.***
**Brienne:** We hope... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rzruCSWMXja6x9BdN/the-grandest-vision-for-humanity-light |
# Coincidences are Improbable
Ada Palmer:
> events which are improbable and proximal are likely to have a causal link
I usually feel fine after eating food. One day, I decided to try a new dish at a restaurant. Afterward, my stomach is upset. I suspect that the new dish caused my stomachache. How justified is this s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kfqJXm4L9oEHnFftm/coincidences-are-improbable |
# Are multiple shorter exposures less likely to reduce in infections of COVID-19 then one larger exposure?
At 15 separate days Alice spends 1 minute in close proximity of Carol, who is infected with COVID-19. Bob on the other hand spends 15 minutes on one day with Carol, who is infected with COVID-19. Assuming the inf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ikR76Jqzfv3ZGXzxk/are-multiple-shorter-exposures-less-likely-to-reduce-in |
# A No-Nonsense Guide to Early Retirement
**(Edited 2024-07-18: Looking at this 3.5 years later, there's a few changes I would make.**
**First, I avoided being too opinionated about asset allocation -- but I now think it's pretty important to have a high % of investments in stock index funds. I would not drop be... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ttXGrquvXgouawHEq/a-no-nonsense-guide-to-early-retirement |
# [AN #139]: How the simplicity of reality explains the success of neural nets
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kgBAJBGp5Yum8oGj/an-139-how-the-simplicity-of-reality-explains-the-success-of |
# Mentorship, Management, and Mysterious Old Wizards
*Followup to* [*Dealing with Network Constraints*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HBKb3Y5mvb69PRHvP/dealing-with-network-constraints-my-model-of-ea-careers)
*Epistemic Status: I spent some time* [*trying to check*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bnk6xJy... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wj5CCL7ay39on9ZuK/mentorship-management-and-mysterious-old-wizards |
# Above the Narrative
Cross-posted from [Putanumonit.com](https://putanumonit.com/2021/02/22/above-the-narrative/)
* * *
Sometimes you write about a thing and that thing… happens.
I spent all of February working on a post about the mainstream narrative of American society: who gets to tell it, what happens when tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/x5M3F4feiFstCbaC7/above-the-narrative |
# Tsuyoku Naritai
*This is the fourth speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info. The speech was given by Ruby.*
* * *
***Riva descends from podium.***
**Brienne:** We have spoken of the horrors that exist, t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WrvQiTvvYeAxPLovW/tsuyoku-naritai |
# The Inner Workings of Resourcefulness
*Cross-posted to* [*my personal blog*](https://metabstract.squarespace.com/blog/the-inner-workings-of-resourcefulness)*.*
*Meta: If not for its clumsiness, I would have titled this piece “*\[some of\] *the inner workings of resourcefulness”. In other words, I do not want to pre... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gNksfoD7ymyRfX8hQ/the-inner-workings-of-resourcefulness |
# Never Go Full Kelly
Introduction
------------
I am assuming the reader is at least somewhat familiar with the Kelly Criterion. If not, I suggest you read [this first](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZ6XaCwN4QGgH9CxF/the-kelly-criterion). There is a sense in which I am mostly just adding meat to the bones of "Never... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly |
# Covid 2/25: Holding Pattern
[Scott Alexander reviewed his Covid-19 predictions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid), [and I did my analysis as well.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRuTeLm7oEfxxBFRF/judging-our-april-2020-covid-19-predictions)
It was a quiet week, with no big ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYk8Hz3imnZK2eCXx/covid-2-25-holding-pattern |
# Anna and Oliver discuss Children and X-Risk
This Sunday, Anna Salamon and Oliver Habryka will discuss whether people who care about x-risk should have children.
A short summary of Oliver's position is:
> If we want to reduce existential risk and protect the cosmic commons, we have some really tough challenges ahea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/KGvQs9tTpgnKugdv2/anna-and-oliver-discuss-children-and-x-risk |
# What is the VIX?
[Original Post Here](https://jorgevelez.substack.com/p/what-is-the-vix)
The VIX is a unit of information within the financial market system that investment professionals use to make investment decisions. There are derivatives (options and futures) of that unit of information that investment profess... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uChrXwn4nu2T7t3ad/what-is-the-vix |
# Useless knowledge; why people resist education improvement
I was a physics major, but there were still some general education courses that were required. Although a few had some useful information, most of them were worthless. I went to the first few classes, and if I found that they contained no useful information,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3aN9fxzsCnTHfyEbR/useless-knowledge-why-people-resist-education-improvement |
# "New EA cause area: voting"; or, "what's wrong with this calculation?"
Consider my home county:
- Number of voters $\approx 700k$
- (Corollary: probability of swinging an election: $1 / \sqrt{nVoters} \approx 1/800$)
- GDP: $400B
- Amount by which GDP might go up or down depending on a single election: 0.1%
- Prob... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NGJdsLjZgphKHdobE/new-ea-cause-area-voting-or-what-s-wrong-with-this |
# RadVac Commercial Antibody Test Results
*Background:* [*Making Vaccine*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine)
Results are in from the commercial antibody tests. Both my girlfriend and I came back negative - the test did not detect any Spike antibody response in the blood. This post will... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mqy4GFqJoMSfs8raA/radvac-commercial-antibody-test-results |
# Different kinds of language proficiency
It’s funny how forms asking for your language proficiency use “native language” to mean “best possible proficiency”.
My native languages are Finnish and Swedish, but I’m out of practice with Swedish so my English vocabulary is *way* better than my Swedish. Though interestingl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkRxcdLnsDtGKvvyc/different-kinds-of-language-proficiency |
# Why aren't we all using Taffix?
Taffix is a nasal powder spray that builds up a protective mechanical barrier against viruses and allergens in the nasal cavity. The EMA allowed them to write on their packaging insert to advertise it's clinical effects by saying:
> Taffix was found highly effective in blocking seve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bg9ozak6GJfghmpRz/why-aren-t-we-all-using-taffix |
# Bootstrapped Alignment
*NB: I doubt any of this is very original. In fact, it's probably right there in the original Friendly AI writings and I've just forgotten where. Nonetheless, I think this is something worth exploring lest we lose sight of it.*
Consider the following argument:
1. [Optimization unavoidably l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/teCsd4Aqg9KDxkaC9/bootstrapped-alignment |
# Privacy vs proof of character
Below, I outline some musings I’ve produced while thinking about the private cryptocurrency [Monero](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero). I make no pretense to originality, cleverness, or exhaustiveness in covering considerations.
There are (at least) two distinct types of privacy. F... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJCMsmyAfbXMcuj9b/privacy-vs-proof-of-character |
# "If You're Not a Holy Madman, You're Not Trying"
I've been reading [the hardcover SSC collection](https://smile.amazon.com/Slate-Star-Codex-Essays-I/dp/1735797103/?sa-no-redirect=1) in the mornings, as a way of avoiding getting caught up in internet distractions first thing when I get up. I'd read many of Scott Alex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/s3rAKTkdSHb6Hwwoz/if-you-re-not-a-holy-madman-you-re-not-trying |
# How might cryptocurrencies affect AGI timelines?
Summary: Deflation (or so I heard) is considered harmful because it stifles growth. Central banks have been fighting it to keep economies healthy. Cryptocurrencies can be designed to be deflationary. If the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies becomes big, centra... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NQweRxjPTyLZNQWKB/how-might-cryptocurrencies-affect-agi-timelines |
# 02/28/2021 - Myanmar Diaries; Context
Content Warning: violence, depressing content, politics
This is the start of a weekly diary on the Myanmar coup and revolution, inspired by Zvi's weekly Covid blog and [Robin Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2021/02/who-wants-common-sense.html). Every week I will discuss ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jqvCqCPiEben5b8uM/02-28-2021-myanmar-diaries-context |
# How do you run a fit-test for a mask at home when you don't have fancy equipment?
Commercial fit-testing for masks needs quite fancy equipment like the [Allegro Saccharin Fit Test Kit 2040](https://www.amazon.com/Allegro-Saccharin-Fit-Test-2040/dp/B00K0Y4Q7E/ref=as_li_ss_tl?keywords=Allegro+Saccharin+Respirator+Fit+... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EPuHC6MD24itPruDP/how-do-you-run-a-fit-test-for-a-mask-at-home-when-you-don-t |
# When I left Google
About five years ago a [friend](https://www.benkuhn.net) had recently started at [Wave](https://www.wave.com), and encouraged me to join them. It sounded like a great startup doing really important work in East Africa, and potentially more valuable than continuing my "earning to give" approach, bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fN3wjHffhsELcsRzp/when-i-left-google |
# Takeaways from one year of lockdown
As of today, I've been in full-on, hardcore lockdown for an entire year. I have a lot of feelings – both about the personal social impacts of lockdown and about society being broken – that I won't go into in this public space. What I want to figure out in this post is what rationa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uM6mENiJi2pNPpdnC/takeaways-from-one-year-of-lockdown |
# We should not raise awareness
The phrase "we should raise awareness about $x$" creeps me out. I had trouble identifying exactly why until I read [this](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2020/06/15/simulacra-and-covid-19/) summary of simulacra levels.
> Level 1: “There’s a lion across the river.” = There’s a lion across ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6zuhR6C8WoKMzGKsW/we-should-not-raise-awareness |
# Subjectivism and moral authority
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/). Content warning: descriptions of cruelty)
Lots of people I know think that what you should do depends, ultimately, on your contingent patterns of care and concern (suitably idealized), as opposed to some sort of obj... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7rLsKxbKgKWJdCwWg/subjectivism-and-moral-authority |
# Full-time AGI Safety!
Hi everyone!
I'm Steve Byrnes, a professional physicist in Boston. Y'all may know me as a regular blogger and commenter on this site. ([Example post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/wcNEXDHowiWkRxDNv/inner-alignment-in-salt-starved-rats), [Full list](https://sjbyrnes.com/agi.html).)
Well... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tnEQMnpyBFK5QBRz3/full-time-agi-safety |
# Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
*Or: Big Timelines Crux Operationalized*
========================================
What fun things could one build with +12 orders of magnitude of compute? By ‘fun’ I mean ‘powerful.’ This hypothetical is highly relevant to AI timelines, for reasons I’ll explain later.
*Summary (Spoiler... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rzqACeBGycZtqCfaX/fun-with-12-ooms-of-compute |
# Focusmate: Cryonics sign up
Event will be here: https://meet.google.com/ari-sqxa-qnh
Focusmate is an event format where we all work at the same time, but without talking. It can help get things done.
During this time we will all work on making progress towards:
- deciding whether we want to sign up for cryonics
- ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/PEA45j9eHpcKnnwmp/focusmate-cryonics-sign-up |
# Russian x-risks newsletter winter 2020-2021: free vaccines for foreigners, bird flu outbreak, one more nuclear near-miss in the past and one now, new AGI institute.
I got my covid vaccination in December and it easily available in Moscow, especially in malls, where only an ID is required for a jab. Thus, foreigners ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XEzYhLCGctYJFxb3j/russian-x-risks-newsletter-winter-2020-2021-free-vaccines |
# How to end stagnation?
When I wrote my post on [technological stagnation](https://rootsofprogress.org/technological-stagnation), the top question I got asked was: So, how do we fix it?
I don’t have *the* definitive answer, but here’s a starting point. I generally think about the causes of progress on three levels:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/upPzwunJnimbbkJEp/how-to-end-stagnation |
# Grading myself on SSC's 2020 predictions
[Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid)
[Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dRuTeLm7oEfxxBFRF/judging-our-april-2020-covid-19-predictions)
I privately... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nJDq6fML8kdfk3AQM/grading-myself-on-ssc-s-2020-predictions |
# Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
*This post is a response to SimonM's post,* [*Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zmpYKwqfMkWtywkKZ/kelly-isn-t-just-about-logarithmic-utility)*. It's an edited and extended version of some of my comments there.*
To summarize the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfZtwtGD6ymFtXmdA/kelly-is-just-about-logarithmic-utility |
# Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
**Highlights**
--------------
* Biden orders the creation of a [National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/01/21/national-security-directive-united-states-global-leadership-to-strengthen-t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MrKvaWHjqdfxW2TWj/forecasting-newsletter-february-2021 |
# Notes on "Bioterror and Biowarfare" (2006)
*Cross-posted* [*from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3XJhr3ETYEbrhp25r/notes-on-bioterror-and-biowarfare-2006)
I recently finished reading Malcolm Dando’s 2006 book [*Bioterror and Biowarfare: A Beginner’s Guide*](https://www.audible.com/pd/Bioter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E2FTeDzPF9ruuPP4H/notes-on-bioterror-and-biowarfare-2006 |
# Economic Class
Social class is fossilized wealth. There are three economic classes in the USA.
- If you do physical work then you belong to the the "working class", "lower class", "blue collar" or simply "labor".
- If you do nonphysical work then you belong to the "middle class" or "white collar".
- If other people ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/owDa7w9u7TqZj2PHu/economic-class |
# Are the Born probabilities really that mysterious?
In Eliezer's Quantum Mechanics sequence, he presents the [Born probabilities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ZKvf9u2XEWddGZmS/the-born-probabilities) as still being mysterious in our understanding. In particular, the fact that it's the only non-linear phenomenon i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxZwEJitERXogxbi6/are-the-born-probabilities-really-that-mysterious |
# Tap Water and Filtration
I've been wondering about the safety and quality of the tap water in my city. I've always been assured that it's clean right out the tap. But I spent this past year living rurally with a groundwater well on-site, and when I visited the city I was struck by how bad the tap water tasted to me.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYqgzyFurJqdbkWcJ/tap-water-and-filtration |
# The Flexibility of Abstract Concepts
I can discuss Daoist ideas with Taiwanese friends easily even if they have no background in Daoism. But when I try the same thing with white people it often feels as if I'm trying to explain quantum field theory to someone who has never heard of mathematics. It is easier for me t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MoK52CNJBLhqu2fep/the-flexibility-of-abstract-concepts |
# Good brainteasers for children?
I love asking children (and adults in some cases) the following question:
~~Five birds are sitting in a tree. A hunter takes a rifle and shoots one of them. How many birds are left?~~ (Edit: Rephrased to avoid several problems)
Five ducks are sitting in a field. A hunter shoots and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d9jp9kLHa67h5qaux/good-brainteasers-for-children |
# A whirlwind tour of Ethereum finance
As a hacker and cryptocurrency liker, I have been hearing for a while about "DeFi" stuff going on in Ethereum without really knowing what it was. I own a bunch of ETH, so I finally decided that enough was enough and spent a few evenings figuring out what was going on. To my pleas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nMNi86hgNjaNnh8iu/a-whirlwind-tour-of-ethereum-finance |
# Attempt at a gears model of getting infected with COVID-19
I read a bit but don't know how good my understanding is. For reasoning about TAFFIX or the RaDVaC vaccine it would be good to have a decent gears model. I'm writing my current model so that others can check it for errors and not for others believing my mode... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hyJ5Ew7AHfhqhvBJm/attempt-at-a-gears-model-of-getting-infected-with-covid-19 |
# Enabling Children
There was a recent [discussion][1] on Less Wrong about whether or not ambitious people should have kids.
I didn't manage to watch it, though I have a lot of interest in the topic. It wasn't recorded but I can still hope for someone to post lots of details about it in the comments.
One subtheme fr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g7EroWAw8T7MJrmbQ/enabling-children |
# What other peptide vaccines might it be useful to make?
Related: [Making Vaccine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine)
In my limited understanding of the workings of the open-source radvac vaccine, it is surprisingly basic. In particular, if the peptide design works, then simply orderin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7jtPJPgtFsFKmiZhJ/what-other-peptide-vaccines-might-it-be-useful-to-make |
# Open & Welcome Thread – March 2021
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CtAPvY7zz8FFheXSQ/open-and-welcome-thread-march-2021 |
# Texas Freeze Retrospective: meetup notes
This article is a writeup of the conversation at a [meetup](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dGM2LJ66abZQtzcqf/texas-freeze-retrospective-and-emergency-planning-non-texans) hosted by [Austin Less Wrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/groups/syf4gEbaNQ8btKCbb) on Saturday, February ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HdFQvfxGmcXhRSeJj/texas-freeze-retrospective-meetup-notes |
# How To Think About Overparameterized Models
So, you’ve heard that modern neural networks have vastly more parameters than they need to perfectly fit all of the data. They’re operating way out in the regime where, traditionally, we would have expected drastic overfit, yet they seem to basically work. Clearly, our sta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GfEmhoyS6ztk7GQAp/how-to-think-about-overparameterized-models |
# Garden Party 2.0
The Walled Garden is being remodeled, and you are invited to come celebrate.
We'll open with an optional round of lightning talks and google-doc collaboration (in the new Meeting Hall), and then wander the new central garden as we chat/catch up/share what we're working on or thinking about.
We've ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/6GML8nB4Prao9esgi/garden-party-2-0 |
# AI Safety Beginners Meetup (Pacific Time)
Are you new to AI Safety? Then this event if for you. This is an occasion to ask all your questions, and meet others in your situation.
Are you a veteran in AI Safety, or just have been around long enough to have some wisdom to share. Then you are welcome to join this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/rP3EwL6qNnj9RAafL/ai-safety-beginners-meetup-pacific-time |
# How does bee learning compare with machine learning?
*This is a write-up of work I did as an Open Philanthropy intern. However, the conclusions don't necessarily reflect Open Phil's institutional view.*
Abstract
========
This post investigates the *biological anchor framework* for thinking about AI timelines, as e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yW3Tct2iyBMzYhTw7/how-does-bee-learning-compare-with-machine-learning |
# Limits of Giving
A friend recently asked what my goal was in giving: was there some amount of donations that would be enough? If someone give me a large enough amount of money, which I then donated, would I be free of further altruistic obligations?
These questions feel to me like they come from a very different pe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ojZsQhH7eZMCmTSy3/limits-of-giving |
# I'm still mystified by the Born rule
(This post was originally intended as a comment on [Adele's question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SxZwEJitERXogxbi6/are-the-born-probabilities-really-that-mysterious), but ballooned to the point where it seems worthy of a top-level post. Note that I'm not trying to answer Ade... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7A9rsJFLFqjpuxFy5/i-m-still-mystified-by-the-born-rule |
# Seven Years of Spaced Repetition Software in the Classroom
Description
-----------
This is a reflective essay and report on my experiences using [Spaced Repetition](http://www.gwern.net/Spaced%20repetition) Software (SRS) in an American high school classroom. It follows my [2015](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ww2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F6ZTtBXn2cFLmWPdM/seven-years-of-spaced-repetition-software-in-the-classroom-1 |
# Book review: "A Thousand Brains" by Jeff Hawkins
Jeff Hawkins gets full credit for getting me first interested in the idea that neuroscience might lead to artificial general intelligence—an idea which gradually turned into an all-consuming hobby, and more recently a new job. I'm not alone in finding him inspiring. A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ixZLTmFfnKRbaStA5/book-review-a-thousand-brains-by-jeff-hawkins |
# Grabby aliens and Zoo hypothesis
Robin Hanson [created](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2020/12/how-far-aggressive-aliens.html) a model of grabby aliens. In this model, we live before the arrival of an alien colonisation wave, because such a wave will prevent the appearance of the new civilizations. Thus, we could f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5ANezmGRKnua8qzZR/grabby-aliens-and-zoo-hypothesis |
# Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home
Health officials look on in horror as individuals both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and state and local governments, realize life exists and people can choose to live it.
This is exactly what I was worried about back in December when I wrote [We’re F***ed, It’s Over](https... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zLLz8eiriby6Cd5TN/covid-3-4-declare-victory-and-leave-home |
# Connecting the good regulator theorem with semantics and symbol grounding
**EDIT**: For a great reappraisal of the good regulator theorem using modern terminology, see [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dx9LoqsEh3gHNJMDk/fixing-the-good-regulator-theorem).
I've been writing quite a bit about [syntax, semantics]... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uky9nAtnw9WrAjziD/connecting-the-good-regulator-theorem-with-semantics-and |
# A non-logarithmic argument for Kelly
*This post is a response to abramdemski's post,* [*Kelly \*is\* (just) about logarithmic utility*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfZtwtGD6ymFtXmdA/kelly-is-just-about-logarithmic-utility)*.*
> any argument in favor of the Kelly formula has to go through an implication that you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLCcTypehEJtstNnD/a-non-logarithmic-argument-for-kelly |
# A Semitechnical Introductory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction
(*Originally posted in December 2015: A dialogue between Ashley, a computer scientist who's never heard of* [*Solomonoff's theory of inductive inference*](https://arbital.com/p/solomonoff_induction/)*, and Blaine, who thinks it is the best thing since sli... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EL4HNa92Z95FKL9R2/a-semitechnical-introductory-dialogue-on-solomonoff-1 |
# [AN #140]: Theoretical models that predict scaling laws
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter [**resources here**](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can look through [**this spreadsheet**... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Yt5wAXMc7D2zLpQqx/an-140-theoretical-models-that-predict-scaling-laws |
# Why Selective Breeding is a Bad Way to do Genetic Engineering
## A Brief Intro
During any conversation about genetic engineering, people inevitably bring up worries about eugenics movements of the past and often use the cruelty, bad science, and objective failure of these efforts as an example of why we shouldn't e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R3qTj5JePLpdt8jQC/why-selective-breeding-is-a-bad-way-to-do-genetic |
# Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks
A paper investigating how individual neurons in a [CLIP model](https://openai.com/blog/clip/) (an image/text neural net combining a ResNet vision model with a Transformer language model) respond to various abstract concepts. This shouldn't be very surprising after GPT... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bgQysKL6Luqacw3SN/multimodal-neurons-in-artificial-neural-networks |
# Takeaways from the Intelligence Rising RPG
Last Saturday, we played [Intelligence Rising](https://intelligencerising.org/). Intelligence Rising is a role-playing game about the global development of transformative AI technologies, where each player or team is a major government or company. We had a great time and we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ywKhqjgdKuHoQohYL/takeaways-from-the-intelligence-rising-rpg |
# GPT-3 and the future of knowledge work
The most recent episode of the [Futurati Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRSov16ZLE2UgekgBTgnrjw/videos) is a big one. [We had Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller on](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lef5q1xPTU0) to talk about their startup '[Ought](https://ought.org/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vnzQgeiwmqfzqvFRm/gpt-3-and-the-future-of-knowledge-work |
# D&D.Sci III: Mancer Matchups
*Note: While not exactly \*bad\*, I believe - and the upvotes confirm - that this is my weakest D&D.Sci challenge by a considerable margin. If you're currently working through the archive, I'd recommend playing everything else before resorting to this one.*
* * *
The voice that greets ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTB58QeNkDMKPjAiv/d-and-d-sci-iii-mancer-matchups |
# The case for aligning narrowly superhuman models
*I wrote this post to get people’s takes on a type of work that seems exciting to me personally; I’m not speaking for Open Phil as a whole. Institutionally, we are very uncertain whether to prioritize this (and if we do where it should be housed and how our giving sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models |
# MIRI comments on Cotra's "Case for Aligning Narrowly Superhuman Models"
Below, I’ve copied comments left by MIRI researchers Eliezer Yudkowsky and Evan Hubinger on March 1–3 on a draft of Ajeya Cotra’s "[Case for Aligning Narrowly Superhuman Models](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-alig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AyfDnnAdjG7HHeD3d/miri-comments-on-cotra-s-case-for-aligning-narrowly |
# Check OK, babble-read, optimize (how I read textbooks)
A year ago, I didn't have any conscious ideas for how to read a textbook. I was frustrated by forgetting things, and had heard about memory palaces. When I was playing classical piano, I was able to memorize long complicated pieces of music with thousands of not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hZybLna6oktgKyFK/check-ok-babble-read-optimize-how-i-read-textbooks |
# What ethical thought experiments can be reversed?
Some thought experiments follow this template:
1. We have a moral intuition
2. We make some computation to what this intuition implies
3. We check how we feel about this implication, and it feels counter-intuitive
Then some people bite the (3) bullet. But bullets so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u5xKELd3SHPBGhc4w/what-ethical-thought-experiments-can-be-reversed |
# Noticing and Overcoming Bias
Introduction
------------
 that I write in ways that directly contradict standard writing advice.
# Importance > Truth
Most writing revolves around whether $x$ is true. My writing revolves ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KLhJF2WvHdZAZKoji/contrarian-writing-advice |
# Bakeoff
For most of the past week Lily has been trying to persuade us to have a cooking competition. Her initial idea involved kids cooking unassisted, but after talking through ways I saw this going poorly she decided she was ok with teams. This morning she said it was time, and declared it would be Lily + Jeff vs ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TTyfxdehfWy6Ce9AC/bakeoff |
# Teaching to Compromise
I was reading interview with Giscard d'Estaing about drafting of European Constitution and a this section stood out:
> The session which was not good was the Youth Convention. It’s bizarre, it’s strange. Firstly, it was not young in spirit. [Laughs] That was what they’d been chosen for. It co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dHeJg8bhYCggJhyXH/teaching-to-compromise |
# The average North Korean mathematician
Here are [the top-fifteen countries](https://personal.psu.edu/asb17/papers/IMO%20Analysis.pdf) ranked by how well their teams do at the International Math Olympiads:
When I first saw this ranking, I w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q8hfzHjskaGknKLdn/the-average-north-korean-mathematician |
# The three existing ways of explaining the three characteristics of existence
*The following was originally intended to be part of the* [*introductory post to my series on the three characteristics of existence*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mf2MCkYgSZSJRz5nM/a-non-mystical-explanation-of-insight-meditation-and-th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cCoHYKgWHnboX4fbf/the-three-existing-ways-of-explaining-the-three |
# Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
**Introduction**
----------------
The last few years have seen a proliferation of forecasting platforms. These platforms differ in many ways, and provide different experiences, filters, and incentives for forecasters. Some platforms like Metaculus and ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cWSDKWDFcGA2Bzyni/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search |
# Announcement: Real-time discussions in a new Clubhouse community.
Update: Clubhouse added a feature. You can now join the club directly from [this link](https://www.joinclubhouse.com/club/rationality-live).
Update 2: Clubhouse is now available on Android too.
The latest conversational Schelling point is Clubhous... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zd5vbpZowcL6eScmv/announcement-real-time-discussions-in-a-new-clubhouse |
# Book Notes: Scaling, Why is Animal Size so Important?
TL;DR: Movie!Ant-Man is unrealistic. Also, the Internet Archive has an ebook library!
Movie!Ant-Man can be the size of an ant…
![](https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/XtGSXnOHYaHSd0_IfH0YyPViUrofhmbYC_bjzJecD7r8i0DON5NPeTpBHsAKebOp8JzqrfTG8jLHfdHWGFy562JsjKX-Nl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qutuq5myDdBHxYzpf/book-notes-scaling-why-is-animal-size-so-important |
# What are the biggest current impacts of AI?
I'd like to have a clearer picture of the domains in which AI systems have already been deployed - particularly those in which they are having the largest impacts on the world, and what those impacts are.
Some reasons why this might be useful:
- AI systems don't (currentl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sLHjnoyfEzf6BRC4w/what-are-the-biggest-current-impacts-of-ai |
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