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# PhD student mutual line-manager invitation
The greatest challenge of my PhD is the distant deadlines and the lack of immediate structure and accountability. Working on a single project for years with little extrinsic rewards is really hard for me, and most humans. This plagues long solo projects like academic resear... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XApYGrvEzTKNyCDxz/phd-student-mutual-line-manager-invitation |
# Seeing Status Quo Bias
Reading about biases doesn't automatically make you notice them in your own life; accurately noticing real-life biases requires you to reverse-engineer reality into a detailed mental model. In the case of my favorite bias, [status quo bias](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/status-quo-bias), seein... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tXAXk5MERXLcYmuT4/seeing-status-quo-bias |
# Sleep math: red clay blue clay
To me, going to bed often feels more like a tiresome deprivation from life than a welcome rest, or a painless detour through oblivion to morning. When I lack patience for it, I like to think about math puzzles. Other purposeful lines of thought keep me awake or lose me, but math leads ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/exmjSZmdTwrDwYS8F/sleep-math-red-clay-blue-clay |
# A simple way to make GPT-3 follow instructions
*I originally posted this idea as a comment to* [*The case for aligning narrowly superhuman models*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZtsoaoSLpKjjbMqM/the-case-for-aligning-narrowly-superhuman-models)*, but it's interesting enough that I thought I'd submit it as a top l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2H4huFGykKCP5Qu7C/a-simple-way-to-make-gpt-3-follow-instructions |
# The Case for Logical Fallacies
In [a recent episode of *Rationally Speaking*,](http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/episode-251-the-case-for-one-billion-americans-more-matt-ygl.html) Julia Galef and Matt Yglesias discuss why they incorrectly supported the Iraq war back in 2003. At some point, (I think - I can’t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKov2STqvE4Yvpfrt/the-case-for-logical-fallacies |
# How I Meditate
In "[Fake Frameworks for Zen Meditation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4BBW3aHavmKxbQmof/fake-frameworks-for-zen-meditation-summary-of-sekida-s-zen)" I offered some models for how Zen meditation works, but not really much in the way of practice instructions. Similarly, I've talked a bunch about the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MgFRBjRzu5hoYz6wD/how-i-meditate |
# Care and demandingness
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/))
People sometimes object to moral claims on the grounds that their implications would be too demanding. But analogous objections make little sense in empirical and prudential contexts. I find this contrast instructive. Some wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/grK46D9TuptstX6h7/care-and-demandingness |
# Simple Tricks to Improve KN95 Masks
There have already been a couple of posts on this topic, including this one which promotes a mask brace:
[https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CrikcGiaWK9CSSzrJ/i-made-an-n95-level-mask-at-home-and-you-can-too](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CrikcGiaWK9CSSzrJ/i-made-an-n95-level-mask... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZBuomyMHi836GyNWe/simple-tricks-to-improve-kn95-masks |
# If you've learned from the best, you're doing it wrong
i - Working out
---------------
Say you've read up on the studies about exercise and you've decided to dedicate 30 to 90 minute of every day purely to improve your body. You like the CV benefits, but also, you agree that strength, stability, postural awareness ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eGHj8crTKhTNZqcGh/if-you-ve-learned-from-the-best-you-re-doing-it-wrong |
# [Lecture Club] Awakening from the Meaning Crisis
John Vervaeke has a lecture series on YouTube called [Awakening from the Meaning Crisis](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLND1JCRq8Vuh3f0P5qjrSdb5eC1ZfZwWJ). I thought it was great, so I'm arranging a lecture club to discuss it here on Less Wrong. The format is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i4BYp9xZeEebhg7qM/lecture-club-awakening-from-the-meaning-crisis |
# What I'd change about different philosophy fields
\[epistemic status: speculative conversation-starter\]
My guess at the memetic shifts that would do the most to improve these philosophy fields' tendency to converge on truth:
* * *
### metaphysics
1\. Make reductive, 'third-person' models of the brain central to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Lyki5DCHnJgeNXww/what-i-d-change-about-different-philosophy-fields |
# Epistemological Framing for AI Alignment Research
Introduction
============
You open the Alignment Forum one day, and a new post stares at you. By sheer luck you have some time, so you actually read it. And then you ask yourself the eternal question: how does this fit with the rest of the field? If you’re like me, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y4YHTBziAscS5WPN7/epistemological-framing-for-ai-alignment-research |
# D&D.Sci III Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to [the D&D.Sci post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pTB58QeNkDMKPjAiv/d-and-d-sci-iii-mancer-matchups) I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
[Here](https://h-b-p.github.io/d-and-d-sci-iii/) is the web ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9YHQM2abm2eCfW9z2/d-and-d-sci-iii-evaluation-and-ruleset |
# Why Hasn't Effective Altruism Grown Since 2015?
Edit: There's now a follow up post [here](https://applieddivinitystudies.com/ea-growth-replies/). [LW Discussion](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RoahG4R5dAt2rBpRK/responses-and-testimonies-on-ea-growth). [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/D6DPsTFQph... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MKrrnrCDv6zm4SL9a/why-hasn-t-effective-altruism-grown-since-2015 |
# CLR's recent work on multi-agent systems
# Introduction
We at the [Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR)](https://longtermrisk.org/) are focused on reducing risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering[^1], or [s-risks](https://longtermrisk.org/reducing-risks-of-astronomical-suffering-a-neglected-priority/.), from... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EzoCZjTdWTMgacKGS/clr-s-recent-work-on-multi-agent-systems |
# Why does Applied Divinity Studies think EA hasn’t grown since 2015?
[Applied Divinity Studies](https://applieddivinitystudies.com/) seeks to explain why the EA community hasn’t grown since 2015. The observations they initially call the EA community not having grown are:
1. GiveWell money moved increased a lot in 2... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JJxxoRPMMvWEYBDpc/why-does-applied-divinity-studies-think-ea-hasn-t-grown |
# Towards a Mechanistic Understanding of Goal-Directedness
*This post is part of the research I have done at MIRI with mentorship and guidance from Evan Hubinger.*
Introduction
============
Most discussion about goal-directed behavior has focused on a behavioral understanding, which can roughly be described as using... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nTiAyxFybZ7jgtWvn/towards-a-mechanistic-understanding-of-goal-directedness |
# Defending the non-central fallacy
Aaron Bergman recently [defended](https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/the-case-for-logical-fallacies) logical fallacies against the charge that they're bad arguments. His thesis wasn't new. Gwern [highlighted](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/m06hj5/the_case_for_logi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CDXDnruBJe23rpdfC/defending-the-non-central-fallacy |
# [Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform
Scott Alexander [suggests](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-consequences-of-radical-reform) readers make a prediction.
> Under Napoleon, the revolutionary French took over large swathes of Europe. They abolished their client states' traditional systems, repla... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ookqdLd7QFKJbc8G9/prediction-the-consequences-of-radical-reform |
# Deflationism isn't the solution to philosophy's woes
\[epistemic status: thinking out loud; reporting high-level impressions based on a decent amount of data, but my impressions might shift quickly if someone proposed a promising new causal story of what's going on\]
\[context warning: If you're a philosopher whose... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8DHocYocCbhpjz4Gt/deflationism-isn-t-the-solution-to-philosophy-s-woes |
# A Primer on United States Treasuries
[Original post here. ](https://jorgevelez.substack.com/p/us-treasuries)
A few years into my career, I came to the realize that most investment markets, especially those most regular people invest in (equities), have strong relationships to the United States Treasury (UST) market... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3w8NTHJ4GgtCM5AC/a-primer-on-united-states-treasuries |
# The Cost of a Sixth Seat
When I posted [about cars](https://www.jefftk.com/p/car-thoughts), [several people](https://www.facebook.com/jefftk/posts/10100208950707942?comment_id=10100208954325692) [suggested](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CkXSD4QKSurHCY4oh/car-thoughts?commentId=kftd4yEMNS6m6r9Pp) we might want to g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oJkcbuCuhxEvCAghw/the-cost-of-a-sixth-seat |
# AXRP Episode 5 - Infra-Bayesianism with Vanessa Kosoy
[YouTube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB7v6brXsfI&list=PLmjaTS1-AiDeqUuaJjasfrM6fjSszm9pK&index=5)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([Daniel Filan](https://danielfilan.com/)) have conv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FkMPXiomjGBjMfosg/axrp-episode-5-infra-bayesianism-with-vanessa-kosoy |
# Quarantine variety
Among people sheltering from covid, I think there is a common thought that being stuck in your home for a year begets a certain sameyness, that it will be nice to be done with.
It’s interesting to me to remember that big chunk of the variety that is missing in life comes from regular encounters w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CNMQvzDrmHM9iijjd/quarantine-variety |
# Extended Picture Theory or Models inside Models inside Models
This post offers a model of meaning (and hence truth) based on extending Wittgenstein's [Picture Theory](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Picture_theory_of_language). I believe that this model is valuable enough to be worth presenting on its own. I've left jus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nvLNjY7aoh2i7JxbB/extended-picture-theory-or-models-inside-models-inside |
# [Link] Whittlestone et al., The Societal Implications of Deep Reinforcement Learning
While much of the information in this paper will already be familiar to many here, I still want to highlight this paper. It's a really good, clearly articulated summary of some of the key challenges facing real-world applications of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FsePjJw8HJtztcexq/link-whittlestone-et-al-the-societal-implications-of-deep |
# [AN #141]: The case for practicing alignment work on GPT-3 and other large models
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/29QmG4bQDFtAzSmpv/an-141-the-case-for-practicing-alignment-work-on-gpt-3-and |
# Open Problems with Myopia
Thanks to Noa Nabeshima for helpful discussion and comments.
Introduction
============
Certain types of myopic agents represent a possible way to construct safe AGI. We call agents with a time discount rate of zero *time-limited myopic*, a particular instance of the broader class of myopi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LCLBnmwdxkkz5fNvH/open-problems-with-myopia |
# Responses and Testimonies on EA Growth
Follow up to Monday's post [Why Hasn't Effective Altruism Grown Since 2015?](https://applieddivinitystudies.com/ea-growth/). See discussions on [r/scc](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/m2bcmm/responses_and_testimonies_on_ea_growth/), [LessWrong](https://www.less... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RoahG4R5dAt2rBpRK/responses-and-testimonies-on-ea-growth |
# TASP Ep 3 - Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power
Welcome to the Technical AI Safety Podcast, the show where I interview computer scientists about their papers. This month I covered [Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.01683v6), which is closely related to [Seeking Power is Often Robustly I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eM6SgkXDbFXav4kD4/tasp-ep-3-optimal-policies-tend-to-seek-power |
# Tom Chivers, author of "The AI Does Not Hate You", is running an AMA on the EA Forum
Tom's book on the rationalist community was generally well-received by community members. I enjoyed the book, and have continued to enjoy following Tom's work on [COVID and many other things](https://unherd.com/author/tom-chivers/).... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JtYkwuxHRd6XRfWwv/tom-chivers-author-of-the-ai-does-not-hate-you-is-running-an |
# Are dogs bad?
This is my response to [Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem) by Scott Alexander.
I felt that the discussion in the post and comments lack some references to lessons learned from Yudkowsky's [Causal Diagrams and Causa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JtEBjbEZidruMBKc3/are-dogs-bad |
# Animal faces
_\[Epistemic status: not reflective of the forefront of human undersetanding, or human understanding after any research at all. Animal pictures with speculative questions.\]_
Do the facial expressions of animals mean anything like what I’m inclined to take them to mean?
[![ja-san-miguel-_-QQuvAwQ-0-un... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cQNJdFYp4AkFMFCsD/animal-faces |
# Behavioral Sufficient Statistics for Goal-Directedness
*Note: this is a new version -- with a new title -- of my recent post "A Behavioral Definition of Goal-Directedness". Most of the formulas are the same, except for the triviality one that deals better with what I wanted; the point of this rewrite is to present t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jkRFZNAZmWskTdCSt/behavioral-sufficient-statistics-for-goal-directedness |
# Parameter vs Synapse?
In terms of AI timelines, the biggest question I haven't seen addressed is the computational equivalence of a synapse vs a parameter in modern neural nets. This seems like a very important input for any prediction on when we will have human-level AI.
Moravec's estimates of a retina vs the then... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7htxRA4TkHERiuPYK/parameter-vs-synapse |
# [recurrent] Focusmate: cryonics and lifelogging
Event link: https://meet.google.com/ufp-fnqt-efn
Arrive at 11:00, 12:00, or 13:00 AST, and stay for as long as you want (there will be 3x 1-hour focusmate session)
Send me your Gmail address to contact@matiroy.com to be invited to the recurrent Google Calendar event.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Y9sciWMPsBRD39KsF/recurrent-focusmate-cryonics-and-lifelogging |
# Community
*This is the fifth speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info. The speech was given by* [*Oliver Habryka*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/habryka4)*.*
* * *
***Ruby descends from podium.***
**Bri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Av3XA5AHJRsKzqrFZ/community |
# Partnership
*This is the sixth speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info. The speech was given by* [*Miranda*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/swimmer963)*.*
* * *
***Oliver descends from podium.***
**B... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rDPgv9KTor6MgmBup/partnership |
# Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
One of the biggest challenges in forecasting is formulating clear and resolvable questions, where the resolution reflects the intent of the question. When this doesn't happen, there is often uncertainty about the way the question will be resolved, leading to uncert... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnDEAmNhSpBRpjD8L/resolutions-to-the-challenge-of-resolving-forecasts |
# Four Motivations for Learning Normativity
I have been pretty satisfied with my [desiderata for learning normativity](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Gmc7vtnpyKZRHWdt5/p/2JGu9yxiJkoGdQR4s#Summary_of_Desiderata), but I *haven't* been very satisfied with my explanation of why exactly these desiderata are important. I have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oqghwKKifztYWLsea/four-motivations-for-learning-normativity |
# Kelly Betting Discussion
This Sunday join an informal discussion with Abram Demski, Lsuser, SimonM and Bunthut on the subject of Kelly Betting.
The Kelly Criterion is a formula for bet-sizing that leads (almost) surely to higher wealth compared to any other strategy in the long run.
Last month, on LessWrong, we ha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/gAM5AgcChwJLhuJkB/kelly-betting-discussion |
# How I come up with ideas
I desire many things. I invent ideas to satisfy my desires. Whenever I learn something new, I compare the new fact against my database of desires. If my new fact could be used to satisfy a desire then I get an idea.
Some desires are universal among humans.
- I want to be rich without puttin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HB5X9vhjwsk9wD8xY/how-i-come-up-with-ideas |
# Can a Vegan Diet Be Healthy? A Literature Review
Addendum 2023-07-02: Although this post concludes -- rightly, I think -- that a vegan diet can likely be healthy if you make sure to get all the nutrients that you need, I want to emphasise up front that you really do need to make sure that you get all the nutrients y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/T5jxq4vfgJLXkiPjk/can-a-vegan-diet-be-healthy-a-literature-review |
# Rigorous political science?
Voting theory seems pretty easy to Google, find interesting reference material on, etc. But I'm currently interested in going a bit beyond voting theory, to broader questions of governance. For example, what are the real advantages of parliamentary systems vs presidential systems? What el... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bMmD5qNFKRqKBJnKw/rigorous-political-science |
# "Beliefs" vs. "Notions"
The term "belief" is used very differently in Bayesian ML and everyday life.
**1)** In Bayesian ML, is refers to a distribution over entire world models.
**2)** In everyday life, it refers to something more like a single proposition.
I propose the term "notion" for technical use to descri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CmmhFtCg7hsAy3brQ/beliefs-vs-notions |
# Covid 3/12: New CDC Guidelines Available
This post is a day late although not all that short, as I warned it might be. This is because I have spent the last week visiting the best place on Earth, my true home, which is New York City. I will return again soon, and soon after that I will once again be able to live the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vQurHv5DxQrJiQvmh/covid-3-12-new-cdc-guidelines-available |
# Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
*Crossposted from* [*Astral Codex Ten*](http://astralcodexten.substack.com)
**Introduction and review**
Last month I talked about [](https://osf.io/8ev4u/) van der Bergh et al’s work on [the precision of sensory evidence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-pr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hNqte2p48nqKux3wS/trapped-priors-as-a-basic-problem-of-rationality |
# Exploiting Crypto Prediction Markets for Fun and Profit
I believe that exploiting inefficiencies in crypto prediction markets is an easy way to make market beating returns. This guide is a step by step walkthrough of how to make bets on these markets. I think this is useful because the process is somewhat complicate... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nezKGutEuwYGhK29j/exploiting-crypto-prediction-markets-for-fun-and-profit |
# How to use hypnagogic hallucinations as biofeedback to relieve insomnia
**tl;dr:** If you focus, in a counterintuitively alert way, on the hypnagogic hallucinations you experience while trying to get to sleep, you can use them as a sort of biofeedback mechanism, following them as they change their characteristics in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GwGeksTkFQbm6Hbrx/how-to-use-hypnagogic-hallucinations-as-biofeedback-to |
# On Changing Minds That Aren't Mine, and The Instinct to Surrender.
I am not a frequent poster on lesswrong. I’ve been part of the rationality community for a few years now, but I’ve fallen victim to the classic lurker mentality of looking at the most upvoted posts and believing that in comparison to them I haven’t g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hcYK4FHd8kib9fvYJ/on-changing-minds-that-aren-t-mine-and-the-instinct-to |
#
Making friends
*(cross-posted from [my blog](https://sundaystopwatch.wordpress.com/))*
People self-select. This means that you will naturally fall into the same kinds of circles, even if you change the environment. An example from my life comes from mixed martial arts. An MMA gym isn’t usually the most educated or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JY3agL3zXxt4yekiM/making-friends |
# Quotes from the WWMoR Podcast Episode with Eliezer
Spoiler warning: This post contains full spoilers for Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.
* * *
I listened to [this](https://hpmorpodcast.com/?p=2710) WWMoR podcast episode in which Eliezer had a guest appearance. I didn't see a transcript for the podcast... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNxqr5fR6TvsjWZFH/quotes-from-the-wwmor-podcast-episode-with-eliezer |
# Strong Evidence is Common
*Portions of this are taken directly from [Three Things I've Learned About Bayes' Rule](https://markxu.com/Three-Bayes-Learnings).*
One time, someone asked me what my name was. I said, “Mark Xu.” Afterward, they probably believed my name was “Mark Xu.” I’m guessing they would have happily ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JD7fwtRQ27yc8NoqS/strong-evidence-is-common |
# Apollo Creed problems and Clubber Lang problems -- framing, and how to address the latter?
If you've seen the flims Rocky I, II and III you'll be familiar with Apollo Creed and Clubber Lang, but will give a quick summary for those who haven't (spoilers ahead!). In Rocky I, Rocky (the character) is an underdog who is... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9uj4gzpFakzbccMmW/apollo-creed-problems-and-clubber-lang-problems-framing-and |
# Making a Kingfisher Video
[Cecilia](http://ceciliavacanti.com/) and I recently made a [Kingfisher](https://www.kingfisherband.com/) [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swCXOqKgz9s), and I wanted to write some about the process. I'm not claiming this is the best way to do it, and really I'm pretty sure it isn't. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aAHjXHzdcrq7J547B/making-a-kingfisher-video |
# Direct effects matter!
Note: this is from my personal blog [here](https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/direct-effects-matter).
A strange phenomenon plagues public discourse. Subtle and largely detached from the culture war, it often manages to evade detection. Can you spot it in each of the following arguments or di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rqnbrJhDKCoZvNGEZ/direct-effects-matter |
# Open loops in fiction
A fiction-writing trick I find particularly compelling are open loops.
A cliffhanger is an example: you want to know how the hero survives, so your thoughts keep looping back to the situation, trying to figure out what happens next. But you need the author to tell you.
Really good writing use... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sjbp8qfuxbnFmvXGk/open-loops-in-fiction |
# Blue is Arbitrary
When I was 13, the coolest thing in the world was Seto Kaiba summoning a Blue-Eyes White Dragon.
The name "Blue-Eyes White Dragon" is a translation of the Japanese "青眼の白龍".
- "龍" means "dragon".
- "白... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DJJPWZAtwcuEj5WQc/blue-is-arbitrary-1 |
# Internal Double Crux: Video Games
*Inspired by* [*Jacob Falkovich's Internal Diet Crux*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cvzzyKEZg4LRmvooq/internal-diet-crux)*.*
*Disputants: Read Bermudez, and Play On.*
PO: State your hypothesis, sir!
RB: You are spending too much time playing video games. Now yours.
PO: You're... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/24GsobSA7Y9auvHQT/internal-double-crux-video-games |
# AI x-risk reduction: why I chose academia over industry
I've been leaning towards a career in academia for >3 years, and recently got a tenure track role at Cambridge. This post sketches out my reasoning for preferring academia over industry.
**Thoughts on Industry Positions:**
A lot of people working on AI ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4jFnquoHuoaTqdphu/ai-x-risk-reduction-why-i-chose-academia-over-industry |
# Seatbelt Extenders and Booster Seats
In reading about putting [three car seats](https://www.jefftk.com/p/three-car-seats) across the back of a car, one problem people described was it being difficult to buckle a booster seat that is right up next to another seat. I also ran into people saying that you should [defini... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dEHqXn5JfbJAWznxH/seatbelt-extenders-and-booster-seats |
# Predictions for future dispositions toward Twitter
(This was previously a shortform post.)
I have such strong opinions about Twitter that I figured I should make those opinions [pay rent in the form of anticipations](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/making-beliefs-pay-rent), so here they are.
### My Beliefs and Opin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ot7GYQ4chmezcA9Ju/predictions-for-future-dispositions-toward-twitter |
# Dark Matters
This post will be about the main points of evidence for the existence of dark matter. To evaluate whether a competing theory to dark matter is plausible, it's important to know what the actual arguments in favor of dark matter are in more detail than just "dark matter is the stuff you have to add to get... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rNFzvii8LtCL5joJo/dark-matters |
# Against neutrality about creating happy lives
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/03/14/against-neutrality-about-creating-happy-lives/))
(Warning: spoilers for the movie American Beauty.)
> *“Once for each, just once. Once and no more.*
> *And for us too, once. Never again. And ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L2CCuupPxbBHRqkz4/against-neutrality-about-creating-happy-lives |
# Impact of the rationalist community who someone who aspired to be "rational"
This is cross posted from my blog and originally intended to people who are not familiar with the rationalist community, or who may have heard about it from external source. If you regularly read this site, the interest may be limited. Howe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d8BxBhEtRkznckyqr/impact-of-the-rationalist-community-who-someone-who-aspired |
# Clubhouse
A friend showed me Clubhouse on her iPhone eleven days ago on March 3, 2021. It was the first time I had heard about the app. Five minutes with the app was enough to convince me it was positioned to become the next big media platform.
That same evening I borrowed the same friend's tertiary iPhone so I cou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q3FYksk6hRfJHtRKN/clubhouse |
# AstraZeneca COVID Vaccine and blood clots
Any thoughts on the reality of the new reports about the potential that the vaccine exposes receivers to a risk of blood clot problems?
I did a quick Google Scholar search but nothing seemed to apply just looking at the title listing in the summary page. The stories I've se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/giiiSKhuyAvGLuLLw/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-and-blood-clots |
# Return to New York City
This past week, I had my first opportunity in a year to visit New York City, to get my vaccine shot, to look at potential apartments and also to finally visit the city. This is my report of the trip.
I Love New York
---------------
This city is my home, and I will fight to defend it. It is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xvYDdMJgQDgkEZsim/return-to-new-york-city |
# Nitric Oxide Spray... a cure for COVID19??
According to [https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/uk-clinical-trial-confirms-sanotize-s-breakthrough-treatment-for-covid-19/](https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/uk-clinical-trial-confirms-sanotize-s-breakthrough-treatment-for-covid-19/)
> Patients with a sel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eJaDa3FHfnpfceoQa/nitric-oxide-spray-a-cure-for-covid19 |
# Wild Reading
When I was in therapy a few years ago, my therapist introduced me to a technique she called *Wild Mind*. The idea is simple: just let yourself do what you want from moment to moment. Follo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/egzmFtnM7zwxFkfNf/wild-reading |
# What's So Bad About Ad-Hoc Mathematical Definitions?
Suppose it’s the early twentieth century, and we’re trying to quantify the concept of “information”. Specifically, we want to measure “how much information” one variable contains about another - for instance, how much information a noisy measurement of the tempera... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhFoAxG49RXFzze5Y/what-s-so-bad-about-ad-hoc-mathematical-definitions |
# Bay and/or Global Solstice* Job Search (2021 - 2022)
*tl;dr: Would you like to lead:*
* *SF/Bay Summer Solstice*
* *SF/Bay Winter Solstice*
* *A global online Winter Solstice? *
*If so, please* [*apply here*](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/17IBxpfL9KVqg18cp3GWWT6mF7y5FNJlmDNXtIZzJ0ao/edit)*. *
*People who ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/whnkpPamxcDXTWR79/bay-and-or-global-solstice-job-search-2021-2022 |
# Conversation Exchange Statistics
[Conversation Exchange](https://conversationexchange.com/) is a website where you can find someone to practice a foreign language with. For example, if you are an American learning Russian then you can make friends a Russian who wants to practice their English.
Last year I sampled t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X6QqQiiS2MsREEiCz/conversation-exchange-statistics |
# MetaPrompt: a tool for telling yourself what to do.
MetaPrompt is a nonstandard todo list. The very bare-bones basic idea is that you add ideas to a deck of cards, and you shuffle this deck to draw things to do. This is useful for "tasks" with no priority, where you just want to be reminded of the idea at some point... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PNoyBBJ4c7pTKqpdh/metaprompt-a-tool-for-telling-yourself-what-to-do |
# Comments on “The Singularity is Nowhere Near”
(**Note added Dec 2025:** *I wrote this long ago, when I was just getting started in neuroscience, and I no longer endorse many details in the first section. But the meat of the post, starting at “Where does Tim's estimate of *$10^{21}$* FLOP/s come from?”, is all good; ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P7P2iG4zvBNANvQFK/comments-on-the-singularity-is-nowhere-near |
# Intermittent Distillations #1
This is my low-budget version of Rohin's [Alignment Newsletter](https://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/).
# A critique of pure learning and what artificial neural networks can learn from animal brains (Anthony M. Zador)
[A critique of pure learning and what artificial neural netw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pqkdsqd6s6w2HtT9g/intermittent-distillations-1 |
# Politics is way too meta
... i.e., it doesn't spend enough time arguing about object-level things.
The way I'm using it in this post, "object-level" might include these kinds of things:
* While serving as Secretary of State, did Hillary Clinton send classified information to an insecure email server? How large w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Js34Ez9nrDeJCTYQL/politics-is-way-too-meta |
# HCH Speculation Post #2A
The first draft of this post started with a point that was clear, cohesive, and wrong. So instead, you get this bunch of rambling that I think should be interesting.
**I - Do not mess with time**
*Harry wrote down 181,429. He repeated what he'd just written down, and Anthony confirmed it.*... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnCMkh7hirX8YwT2t/hch-speculation-post-2a |
# Sharing a Car
Last week [I posted](https://www.jefftk.com/p/car-thoughts) about how we were thinking of getting a car, but at least for now we've decided instead to share a car with one of our [housemates](https://www.jefftk.com/p/shared-house-setup). They have a Honda Fit, and while it is important to them to have ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dvGyC2NbhRCbPKRCw/sharing-a-car |
# [AN #142]: The quest to understand a network well enough to reimplement it by hand
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JGByt8TrxREo4twaw/an-142-the-quest-to-understand-a-network-well-enough-to |
# AstraZeneca vaccine shows no protection against Covid-19 variant from Africa
A recently published study has found that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not protect against the "African variant" of nCoV-19, which is a worrying outcome, since the paper believes that we probably won't be able to manufacture a specifically ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/As4bdeF6rZ9boR7KF/astrazeneca-vaccine-shows-no-protection-against-covid-19 |
# "Objective vs Social Reality" vs "Simulacra 1/3"
Mild rant:
a) I think "Simulacrum Levels 1 - 4" are terrible names and we should be looking to replace them, generally.
b) usually, there's not really a good reason to bring "simulacrum" into it. The concept of simulacrum levels makes sense when you're talking about... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Erw4YiSzpYL9JK3ie/objective-vs-social-reality-vs-simulacra-1-3 |
# The Age of Imaginative Machines
A previous post of mine detailed the rise of "[synthetic media](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q4vQLfqnv2C2KCoA3/on-media-synthesis-an-essay-on-the-next-15-years-of-creative)" and discussed the burgeoning field in terms that now read as if from the 20th century. At the time of writin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BsxMAZgZ39dsTAkTh/the-age-of-imaginative-machines |
# Product orientation
When I applied to graduate schools, I methodically went through over 50 bioinformatics program websites and US News and World Report to find their tuition data and ranking, then threw it all into a spreadsheet. I included cost of living, the length of the program, and ran a linear regression to f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YFaZstEAjyeYE7tAL/product-orientation |
# The best things are often free or cheap
I've been watching [Chef's Table](https://www.netflix.com/title/80007945) on Netflix recently.
Even though those restaurants are crazy expensive, I've been thinking that it's something I want to experience. I'd like to k... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EmEgjS9qTD5zLaig4/the-best-things-are-often-free-or-cheap |
# What are fun little puzzles / games / exercises to learn interesting concepts?
Things in the category of the 2-4-6 puzzle where you need to guess the rule and can try as many examples as you want to figure out the puzzle, and it teaches 'gung jr ner cebar gb pbasvezngvba ovnf' (https://rot13.com/).
Please describe ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o532sgovKvfukSzFe/what-are-fun-little-puzzles-games-exercises-to-learn |
# Spirits vs Terms as Arbitration Norms
Here's a cautionary tale about a friendly bet going wrong and how to avoid the same mistake in your own bets.
When I was in Brazil with a friend, I had a grand time teaching him to say peanut butter in Portuguese (manteiga de amendoim). He struggled to remember it and butchered... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zysbfcBfBG67pxbaA/spirits-vs-terms-as-arbitration-norms |
# Covid 3/18: An Expected Quantity of Blood Clots
This week’s Covid news was that most of Europe suspended administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine over reports of blood clots. This was ludicrously stupid several times over. There was always going to be *something* that happened to correlate with vaccination days to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/82kxkCdHeSb8smZZq/covid-3-18-an-expected-quantity-of-blood-clots |
# Is RL involved in sensory processing?
**(UPDATE 1½ YEARS LATER: I’ve learned a lot since writing this post, and you shouldn’t assume that I still endorse everything herein.)**
I’m biased: I have a strong prior belief that reinforcement learning should *not* be involved in sensory processing in the brain. (**Update:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/szeKeZwuQhFxirfBY/is-rl-involved-in-sensory-processing |
# Acetylcholine = Learning rate (aka plasticity)
What is “learning rate”, and why should we expect a learning-rate-modulation mechanism in the brain?
====================================================================================================
**What is “learning rate”?** As many readers know, learning algorit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ny7NLqvzJt7WfeXP/acetylcholine-learning-rate-aka-plasticity |
# Book Club: Software Design for Flexibility
Gerry Sussman's new book on how to build adaptive systems just came out. It's called "Software Design for Flexibility: How to Avoid Programming Yourself into a Corner" and it covers similar ground to Sussman's [advanced symbolic programming class](https://groups.csail.mit.e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xz35fwXZrbkTHLbJq/book-club-software-design-for-flexibility |
# Why sigmoids are so hard to predict
*tl;dr: Predicting the behaviour of a sigmoid-like process is not fitting the parameters of a logistic curve. Instead, it's trying to estimate the strength of the dampening term - a term that might be actually invisible in the initial data.*
A [logistic curve](https://en.wikipedi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6tErqpd2tDcpiBrX9/why-sigmoids-are-so-hard-to-predict |
# The EMH is False - Specific Strong Evidence
I am going to defend the following response to "If you are so smart why aren't you rich?": Rationalists actually are smart but we were way too modest and did not bet on our beliefs. The rationalists who actually tried to use rationality to invest often traded extremely luc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybQdaN3RGvC685DZX/the-emh-is-false-specific-strong-evidence |
# Chaos Induces Abstractions
*Epistemic status: the first couple sections are intended to be a bog-standard primer on chaos theory. In general, this post mostly sticks close to broadly-accepted ideas; it's intended mainly as background for why one would expect the general ideas of* [*abstraction-as-information-at-a-di... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zcCtQWQZwTzGmmteE/chaos-induces-abstractions |
# Voting-like mechanisms which address size of preferences?
First, a few motivating scenarios.
1: Legislative Deadlock
=======================
A legislature consists of a split two-party system, with 50 Morlocks and 50 Eloi.
Morlocks run all the machinery which produces important goods such as clothing. They really... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnHkyf5DQGHL9ffde/voting-like-mechanisms-which-address-size-of-preferences |
# "You and Your Research" – Hamming Watch/Discuss Party
This Sunday join a watching party for Richard Hamming's famous talk "You and Your Research" then discuss it with other LessWrongers.
Richard Hamming was a researcher at Bell Labs, who worked beside people like Claude Shannon and Richard Feynman. In this talk he ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Bw6ie8HdMnGso7tfo/you-and-your-research-hamming-watch-discuss-party |
# Some blindspots in rationality and effective altruism
*Lighter reading* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XccjCZomKp9uD9HGv/a-parable-of-brightspots-and-blindspots)*. *
*Update: appreciating Scott Alexander’s humble descriptions in his recent Criticism of Criticism of Criticism post. A clarification I need t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Aq4KNxKscywt3yXqk/some-blindspots-in-rationality-and-effective-altruism |
# Feelings of Admiration, Ruby <=> Miranda
*This is the seventh section of the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info.* [*Ruby*](/users/Ruby) *and* [*Miranda*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/swimmer963) *each speak in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEiXp3SdM6rCJZCyP/feelings-of-admiration-ruby-less-than-greater-than-miranda |
# Babble Challenge: 50 Ways to Overcome Impostor Syndrome
Here we go again. [Time to become stronger.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-become-stronger)
This week’s challenge:
Imagine you are a bright young PhD student with interesting articles to write. You have picked y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9gAxKNrJ6cZAYskh/babble-challenge-50-ways-to-overcome-impostor-syndrome |
# Jean Monnet: The Guerilla Bureaucrat
_I have written about coordination problems from various points of view in the past ([biology](https://250bpm.com/blog:135/index.html), [economics](https://250bpm.com/blog:128/index.html), [sociology](https://250bpm.com/blog:132/index.html), [political science](https://250bpm.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5b6YcFbEBCZbX6YSK/jean-monnet-the-guerilla-bureaucrat |
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