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# What are the best resources to point people who are skeptical of getting vaccinated for COVID-19 to?
There are some people who won't be convinced no matter what but on the other hand there are people who might be conviced to vaccinate against COVID-19 who are currently not planning to be vaccinated. What are the bes... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EMSniJhcFYHx6RGwX/what-are-the-best-resources-to-point-people-who-are |
# Fisherian Runaway as a decision-theoretic problem
*Introducing what I think may be an interesting toy problem for timeless-like considerations.*
The [Fisherian Runaway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisherian_runaway) is a proposed mechanism for the development of apparently-detrimental ornamentation such as peacoc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PvbzCuj293D5Hxvu3/fisherian-runaway-as-a-decision-theoretic-problem |
# Open, Free, Safe: Choose Two
*Epistemic status: More of a heuristic than an iron-clad law. Hopefully useful for decision-making, even if it's not a full gears-level model.*
Related: [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHSrtmr3EBohcw6t8/norms-of-membership-for-voluntary-groups](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vHSrtmr3E... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MQzbaHoiQutiHkx2M/open-free-safe-choose-two |
# Vows & Declaration
*This is the eighth and final section of the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the* [*Sequence introduction*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/v7eXLKzBN3q4TiGXn) *for more info.*
* * *
**IMAGE 7 PROJECTED ON PLANETARIUM**
Status, at its finest, makes it easy to find out who the crowd believes is the most skilled, experienced, and capable. It helps us know who we should follow,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oKMmXwihWYmpFLzBS/trust-status-sigmoidally |
# Conspicuous saving
It's well known that people around the world can be really bad at saving money. Pre-pandemic, Americans [saved an average of 7.6% of their income](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT), electing to spend the rest. If people saved more money and invested it, then they'd be able to retire earl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4adzEgNreAQ7eEYDs/conspicuous-saving |
# “Meditation for skeptics” – a review of two books, and some thoughts
I.
There are two books on the German book market whose cover contains the words “Meditation für Skeptiker” (meditation for skeptics). In 2010, Ulrich Ott, a psychologist specialized in meditation research publish a book with exactly this title. In... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zCdJeMKZP45rPAzu9/meditation-for-skeptics-a-review-of-two-books-and-some |
# A dashboard for progress
Is progress slowing down? In a [previous post](https://rootsofprogress.org/technological-stagnation) I explained why I got convinced that it is. Some people making this argument point to quantitative evidence, such as GDP or total factor productivity. I gave more qualitative evidence, or per... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuQ6MaoyD8JwdEwqF/a-dashboard-for-progress |
# [Book Review] Destiny Disrupted
*Destiny Disrupted: A History of the World Through Islamic Eyes* by Tamin Ansary is written for an audience that knows nothing about Islamic history. It is among my favorite history books. If you grew up on Eurocentric world history then *Destiny Disrupted* is like an speculative alte... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DRXW6CrHwkH4rfuGi/book-review-destiny-disrupted |
# Gossip
*Epistemic status: an attempt to model gossip, not based on research. confidant that this describes real dynamics, though there's room for refinement.*
Gossip requires at least 3 parties - the Gossiper, the Target (who's being gossiped about), and the Recipient (who's being gossiped to).
The two basic quest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HHSMQWkdzuZNZRueK/gossip |
# Process Orientation
There's a certain type of workplace where the only thing that matters is that you, as an individual, produce results that are valuable to the company. Netflix is famously like this (or claims to be); here's a quote from their [culture page][1]:
> Succeeding on a dream team is about being effecti... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MXJDmvovuHnYzooy4/process-orientation |
# [event] Cryonics icebreaker
Get to know other cryonics enthusiasts at the icebreaker event happening on Saturday April 10! Afterward, we will move to The Cryosphere, a Discord server for discussion about cryonics. The goals of this event are to connect cryonics enthusiasts and to promote The Cryosphere, where everyo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/qhS4eDDrXA9kDdomK/event-cryonics-icebreaker |
# Demand offsetting
For the last few years I’ve been avoiding factory farmed eggs because I think they involve a lot of unnecessary suffering. I’m hesitant to be part of that even if it’s not a big deal on utilitarian grounds. This is a pain since factory-farmed eggs are used all over the place (e.g. in ice cream, pas... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qJxzBpubLB7Fr3oM8/demand-offsetting |
# Six-Door Cars
While at this point [my family has decided](https://www.jefftk.com/p/sharing-a-car) what we want to do about cars, I'm still thinking about why the [market for moderately larger cars](https://www.jefftk.com/p/the-cost-of-a-sixth-seat) is so awkward.
One issue with three-row vehicles is that the third ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9srBXmvN2YNarrqHa/six-door-cars |
# Burmese Days, Mar 22; Rules of the Game and Preference Falsification in the Army
I have an exam coming up so I am a low on time. I am skipping the predictions this week and diving right into the revolutionary situation.
# What is winning?
The two factions here each seek control over the state. Control over the sta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9eLsWsXpK5mp6YDnn/burmese-days-mar-22-rules-of-the-game-and-preference |
# Moving Data Around is Slow
Data locality is a key part of writing fast data science code.
The core idea is simple: your data starts out in RAM (or disk), and to actually do anything useful with it, you need to move it to the CPU. This is actually pretty slow, so you want to minimize this transfer.
Say you have pai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ibghRHfEn4HT2TXu/moving-data-around-is-slow |
# Generalizing POWER to multi-agent games
### Acknowledgements:
This article is a writeup of a research project conducted through the [SERI](https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/stanford-existential-risks-initiative/content/stanford-existential-risks-initiative) program under the mentorship of [Alex Turner](https://www.les... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MJc9AqyMWpG3BqfyK/generalizing-power-to-multi-agent-games |
# On future people, looking back at 21st century longtermism
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/03/22/on-future-people-looking-back-at-21st-century-longtermism/))
> *“Who knows, for all the distance, but I am as good as looking at you now, for all you cannot see me?”*
>
> *– Whitma... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zqXgBbYXZzB8G2p7S/on-future-people-looking-back-at-21st-century-longtermism |
# A Retrospective Look at the Guild of Servants: Alpha Phase
**Executive Summary**
---------------------
The Guild of Servants is an organization founded in August 2020 aimed at providing structure and community to rationalists, and others with similar ambitions, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Alpha Phase... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JngtvEnobMo7rDHhZ/a-retrospective-look-at-the-guild-of-servants-alpha-phase |
# My research methodology
(*Thanks to Ajeya Cotra, Nick Beckstead, and Jared Kaplan for helpful comments on a draft of this post*.)
I really don’t want my AI to strategically deceive me and resist my attempts to correct its behavior. Let’s call an AI that does so ***egregiously misaligned*** (for the purpose of this ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EF5M6CmKRd6qZk27Z/my-research-methodology |
# Thirty-three randomly selected bioethics papers
Some scholarly fields are very healthy (e.g., physics). Some are fairly unhealthy (e.g., [evolutionary psychology](https://fantasticanachronism.com/2020/09/11/whats-wrong-with-social-science-and-how-to-fix-it/), sad to say). Some are outright crazy (e.g., philosophy of... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wzjjynmp8gMmdX6dt/thirty-three-randomly-selected-bioethics-papers |
# Canada Covid Update: thinking out loud
*(This started as a comment on* [*Zvi's weekly post from 3/18*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/82kxkCdHeSb8smZZq/covid-3-18-an-expected-quantity-of-blood-clots)*, but it got long and I started a second comment and I figured I might as well just make a new top-level post.)*
I ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ykfLLYgNgZC2qngJo/canada-covid-update-thinking-out-loud |
# "Infra-Bayesianism with Vanessa Kosoy" – Watch/Discuss Party
This Sunday join a watch-party for Vanessa Kosoy's discussion of Infra-Bayesianism on the AI X-Risk Research Podcast (AXRP), then discuss it with other LessWrongers.
* The [Zoom link for the event](https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83554464688?pwd=UWkwaFpqVHdrQ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/iA6C6JFqJrF596qW7/infra-bayesianism-with-vanessa-kosoy-watch-discuss-party |
# Against evolution as an analogy for how humans will create AGI
Background
==========
When we do Deep Reinforcement Learning to make a PacMan-playing AI (for example), there are *two algorithms* at play: (1) the “inner” algorithm (a.k.a. “policy”, a.k.a. “trained model”) is a PacMan-playing algorithm, which looks at... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pz7Mxyr7Ac43tWMaC/against-evolution-as-an-analogy-for-how-humans-will-create |
# Preferences and biases, the information argument
I've recently thought of a possibly simpler way of expressing the argument from the [Occam's razor](https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.05812) paper. Namely:
* Human biases and human preferences *contain more combined information* than human behaviour does. And more than the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dh8WsHfzmQJ5L7bd8/preferences-and-biases-the-information-argument |
# Another RadVac Testing Update
*Previously:* [*Making Vaccine*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/niQ3heWwF6SydhS7R/making-vaccine)*,* [*Commercial Antibody Test Results*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mqy4GFqJoMSfs8raA/radvac-commercial-antibody-test-results)*,* [*Mini-Update*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puv8fR... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dy8gWmtLrtjeyWqWX/another-radvac-testing-update |
# Selling Attention for Money
I felt like experimenting, so I posted [this on my shortform](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D4dAic97EWM9S7Lnu/mikkw-s-shortform?commentId=4PZtYownjeoS5KXDZ):
> **In short, I am selling my attention by selling the right to put cards in my Anki deck, starting at the low price of $1 per c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zg6DAqrHTPkek2GpA/selling-attention-for-money |
# The Price Of Space Is Friendship
It's an exciting time in the history of human exploration. We're only just beginning to probe outside our biosphere. Low-orbit, long-term space inhabitation like that seen on the ISS has been the norm for many years now. As of the time of writing, [7 people were in space](https://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PnTEYbEnTpS5jssgg/the-price-of-space-is-friendship |
# [AN #143]: How to make embedded agents that reason probabilistically about their environments
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter [resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/beLgLr6edbZw4koh2/an-143-how-to-make-embedded-agents-that-reason |
# Magic Shoes
While taking their daily stroll around the lake, Alice and Bob encounter a mysterious box. There is a note written on it:
> __~MAGIC SHOES INSIDE~__
>
> These shoes will allow you to walk on water if you follow these 3 simple steps:
> 1. Believe that you can do it.
> 2. Say *'Aqua Esto Terra!'* 3 time... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CCzG9s4dDpTrr3Me8/magic-shoes |
# How You Can Gain Self Control Without "Self-Control"
Many people can’t understand how Ty does it.
Consider a typical weekday for Ty. That means waking up at 6:30 am and getting ready to run. It's freezing, and Ty's lips turn blue, but that doesn't stop Ty from going ten miles. After that, it's time for a 12-hour wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JgBBuDf5uZHmpEMDs/how-you-can-gain-self-control-without-self-control |
# Write a business plan already
[90% of start-ups go bust](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/040915/how-many-startups-fail-and-why.asp), often due to poor planning. Founders know they should write a business plan, yet many never do – spouting lame excuses based on misconceptions and cognitive bias... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgEHv3oq8q3hcssfF/write-a-business-plan-already |
# Curiosity needs courage
*This is a linkpost for https://amirbolous.com/posts/curiosity*
- [Introduction](#introduction)
- [Growing Up](#growing-up)
- [The Missing Link](#the-missing-link)
- [Closing Thoughts](#closing-thoughts)
## Introduction
One of the most courageous people I've ever met is my five year old co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zk4nHhuH6gnynJM7z/curiosity-needs-courage |
# The best frequently don't rise to the top
There are a variety of YouTube channels I've come across that seem like they don't get _nearly_ enough views.
The best example that comes to my mind right now is probably [Massimo Bottura](https://www.youtube.com/c/MassimoBottura/videos). Wikipedia does a good job of descri... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Sx6SBmyut73u6atgB/the-best-frequently-don-t-rise-to-the-top |
# My AGI Threat Model: Misaligned Model-Based RL Agent
[Rohin Shah advocates](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC_J_skJNMs) a vigorous discussion of “Threat Models”, i.e. stories for how AGI is developed, what the AGI then looks like, and then what might go catastrophically wrong.
![](https://39669.cdn.cke-cs.com/rQvD... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zzXawbXDwCZobwF9D/my-agi-threat-model-misaligned-model-based-rl-agent |
# Covid 3/25: Own Goals
AstraZeneca has made quite the mess of things. First they screwed up their initial studies in ways that kind of boggle the mind. Then, with the studies designed to repair trust, fix the problem and allow approval, they report incomplete results in order to make themselves look better, even thou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ju4pxxayzwfN2LPuo/covid-3-25-own-goals |
# Is a Self-Iterating AGI Vulnerable to Thompson-style Trojans?
In his 1984 lecture ["Reflections on Trusting Trust"](https://www.cs.cmu.edu/%7Erdriley/487/papers/Thompson_1984_ReflectionsonTrustingTrust.pdf), Ken Thompson (of Unix fame) speculated about a methodology for inserting an undetectable trojan horse within ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hmwaq6zff53Wa5JJB/is-a-self-iterating-agi-vulnerable-to-thompson-style-trojans |
# Some things I've learned in college
In my corner of the internet, there is a healthy contrarian skepticism about education, and about college in particular. Here are some of the points or critiques of the learning that (perhaps) goes on in college, many of which I largely agree with:
### Signalling
(i.e. any learn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKfRAZTzmGprupdfm/some-things-i-ve-learned-in-college |
# Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
(crossposted from [Astral Codex Ten](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/towards-a-bayesian-theory-of-willpower))
**I.**
What is willpower?
Five years ago, I reviewed [Baumeister and Tierney's book](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/03/12/book-review-willpower/) on the subjec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wZGpoZgDANdkwTrwt/toward-a-bayesian-theory-of-willpower |
# Communication Requires Common Interests or Differential Signal Costs
> If a lion could speak, we could not understand her.
>
> —Ludwig Wittgenstein
In order for information to be transmitted from one place to another, it needs to be conveyed by some physical medium: [material links of cause and effect that vary in ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybG3WWLdxeTTL3Gpd/communication-requires-common-interests-or-differential |
# CFAR rEUnion (September 24-27, 2021)
I'm pleased to announce that we have booked the date for the next CFAR rEUnion: 24-27 September 2021, in Kacov, Czech Republic.
Here is the website: [https://efektivni-altruismus.cz/cfar-reunion-2021/](https://efektivni-altruismus.cz/cfar-reunion-2020/)
If you paid for your tic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/fqCzkh6YmsjC8s984/cfar-reunion-september-24-27-2021 |
# Coherence arguments imply a force for goal-directed behavior
*\[Epistemic status: my current view, but I haven’t read all the stuff on this topic even in the LessWrong community, let alone more broadly.\]*
There is a line of thought that says that advanced AI will tend to be ‘goal-directed’—that is, consistently do... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DkcdXsP56g9kXyBdq/coherence-arguments-imply-a-force-for-goal-directed-behavior |
# Guild of Servants Bacchanalia (March 27, 2021)
All Less Wrongers are welcome to join the Guild of Servants for a post-Alpha celebration in the Walled Garden on Saturday, March 27th. There will be games, socializing and discussion of plans for the Guild Beta.
[Click here for the invite code.](https://www.lesswrong.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/Dm72kLBHceBKDkZYE/guild-of-servants-bacchanalia-march-27-2021 |
# Think like an educator about code quality
It's been said a thousand times: code is for humans to read, not for machines to execute. However, writing code that is easy for humans to read is much easier said than done. It's something that takes years to learn, and decades to master.
I think I might be able to offer a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rpiGNyhgA7dX9NKa4/think-like-an-educator-about-code-quality |
# Making a Cheerful Bid
Asking someone for their cheerful price is asking them for the price at which they'd certainly do what you ask.
This opens the door to asking for whatever you want. Prostitution, murder, watching 'The Bachelor' on loop for all your waking hours for a year: what is your cheerful price? The answ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2i7QSXnEk8GG4n3qm/making-a-cheerful-bid |
# Nash Equilibria in Litigation Settlement Negotiation in the U.S.A.
*Epistemic status: Confident. Relevance: depends on how fast you think takeoff will be.*
[The overwhelming majority of legal disputes don't go to trial](https://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1202&context=facpub). They eith... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wRKZ9yicNQCoJbyKs/nash-equilibria-in-litigation-settlement-negotiation-in-the |
# Core Pathways of Aging
Most overviews of aging suffer from multiple problems:
* They dump a bunch of findings with no high-level picture.
* Many of the claims they make are outdated, purely theoretical, and sometimes even outright disproven by existing work.
* They are usually written by working academics, wh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ui6mDLdqXkaXiDMJ5/core-pathways-of-aging |
# Violating the EMH - Prediction Markets
I am quite confident of the information in my post on the [Efficient Market Hypothesis](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybQdaN3RGvC685DZX/the-emh-is-false-specific-strong-evidence). I am happy to bet on the perp-future trade I described there since it is very safe. **I will eve... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets |
# Infra-Domain Proofs 2
$\newcommand{\less}{\sqsubseteq} \newcommand{\more}{\sqsupseteq} \newcommand{\dirsup}{\bigsqcup^{\uparrow}} \newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon} \newcommand{\la}{\lambda}$
**Lemma 7:** *For *$f,f',f'',f'''\in[X\to(-\infty,\infty]$* s.t. *$f''\ll f$* and *$f'''\ll f'$*, and *$p\in(0,1)$*, and *$X$* is c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fLRgddjMTBnpbMeiM/infra-domain-proofs-2 |
# Infra-Domain proofs 1
$\newcommand{\less}{\sqsubseteq} \newcommand{\more}{\sqsupseteq} \newcommand{\dirsup}{\bigsqcup^{\uparrow}} \newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon} \newcommand{\la}{\lambda}$
A quick note here is that whenever a proposition or theorem or something is cited with a complicated-looking number, like, not Prop... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H5zo4L7yv4bnBgexQ/infra-domain-proofs-1 |
# Inframeasures and Domain Theory
$\newcommand{\less}{\sqsubseteq} \newcommand{\more}{\sqsupseteq} \newcommand{\dirsup}{\bigsqcup^{\uparrow}} \newcommand{\eps}{\epsilon} \newcommand{\la}{\lambda}$
*Math prerequisites for this post: A Whole Lot of topology, some poset/lattice knowledge, have read "*[*Basic Inframea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vrbidMiczaoHBhZGp/inframeasures-and-domain-theory |
# The (not so) paradoxical asymmetry between position and momentum
_(Cross-posted from [my blog](https://ejnnr.github.io/posts/position-momentum-asymmetry/) with light edits)_
Related to: [Which Basis is More Fundamental?](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XDkeuJTFjM9Y2x6v6/which-basis-is-more-fundamental)
_Epistemic ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqdzM5zspSjaZ7YD7/the-not-so-paradoxical-asymmetry-between-position-and |
# Buying a house and making friends in unexpected places
I'm buying a house! A very exciting thing for me. In the process of finding and buying this house, I've come to some interesting game-theoretical realizations.
Observe the three-step process:
1. We find a house that we like.
2. We contact the agency to organ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fajzTmG5Dduz3vppb/buying-a-house-and-making-friends-in-unexpected-places |
# Review of "Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute"
Introduction
============
This review is part of a project with Joe Collman and Jérémy Perret to try to get as close as possible to peer review when giving feedback on the Alignment Forum. Our reasons behind this endeavor are detailed in [our original post](https://www.align... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bAAtiG8og7CxH3cXG/review-of-fun-with-12-ooms-of-compute |
# The Point of Easy Progress
A lot of our productivity happens in the form of “projects”: spending a significant amount of time pursuing a cer... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ANHWcxHkp5iH34oE7/the-point-of-easy-progress |
# Improvement for pundit prediction comparisons
\[**EDIT:** [SimonM pointed out](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAeLAwEHrnjFyimpc/improvement-for-pundit-prediction-comparisons?commentId=vKvicZyeFsR2RmANQ) a possibly-fatal flaw with this plan: it would probably discourage more pundits from joining the prediction-makin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAeLAwEHrnjFyimpc/improvement-for-pundit-prediction-comparisons |
# Transparency Trichotomy
# Introduction
In [Relaxed Adversarial Training for Inner Alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/9Dy5YRaoCxH9zuJqa/relaxed-adversarial-training-for-inner-alignment#The_core_problem__transparency), Evan presents a trichotomy of ways to understand a model M:
1. **Transparency via i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cgJ447adbMAeoKTSt/transparency-trichotomy |
# Notes on effective-altruism-related research, writing, testing fit, learning, and the EA Forum
[*Cross-posted from the EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/J7PsetipHFoj2Mv7R/notes-on-ea-related-research-writing-testing-fit-learning)*. I'm not sure how many people on LessWrong will find this useful, b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NmNfJ45CXCbcsWPpz/notes-on-effective-altruism-related-research-writing-testing |
# Scenarios and Warning Signs for Ajeya's Aggressive, Conservative, and Best Guess AI Timelines
Epistemic status: mild confidence that this provides interesting discussion and debate.
Credits to (in no particular order) Mark Xu, Sydney Von Arx, Jack Ryan, Sidney Hough, and Kuhan Jeyapragasan for resources and feedbac... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kQt3LsNAqxCh8qkaN/scenarios-and-warning-signs-for-ajeya-s-aggressive |
# Agreeing to Disagree: towards a better understanding of agreeableness
Note: this is from my personal blog [here](https://aaronbergman.substack.com/p/agreeing-to-disagree).
My sister (hi Lindsay) and I are very different people. Give Lindsay an hour with 15 people, and she will introduce you to her 15 new best frien... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TitL9P5AcAgk5eG33/agreeing-to-disagree-towards-a-better-understanding-of |
# The importance of how you weigh it
(Cross-posted from [Hands and Cities](https://handsandcities.com/2021/03/28/the-importance-of-how-you-weigh-it/))
> *“Like, nobody,” she says, “is considering the décor!”*
>
> *– G.A. Cohen, “Rescuing Conservatism”*
Much of normative ethics centers on which considerations matter... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKNt2YFHbb9RbE6mF/the-importance-of-how-you-weigh-it |
# Bureaucracy is a world of magic
I [previously wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fajzTmG5Dduz3vppb/buying-a-house-and-making-friends-in-unexpected-places) about some practical game-theoretical (game-practical?) realizations I had while buying a house. Today I want to talk about how bureaucracy is a ritualistic, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QAmY46pciqYRZYcyM/bureaucracy-is-a-world-of-magic |
# Systematizing Epistemics: Principles for Resolving Forecasts
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JnDEAmNhSpBRpjD8L/resolutions-to-the-challenge-of-resolving-forecasts), I discussed many methods for resolving predictions. I want to argue that there is a systematic distinction between rules and princi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrvXNGLxhkifQCch9/systematizing-epistemics-principles-for-resolving-forecasts |
# Some Complaint-Action Gaps
[This was previously a shortform post]
Sometimes I scroll social media (because I am yet weak) and I see rationalists raising Concerns about various news topics and current events. I am bothered by what appears to be a high ratio of (raising awareness) : (taking action).
To better ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6YepKCQuEwbozHunz/some-complaint-action-gaps |
# Progressive Highlighting: Picking What To Make Into Flashcards
Using a flashcard system like [Anki](https://apps.ankiweb.net/) can help maintain long-term knowledge. To use flashcards effectively, it's important to analyze how they fit into the larger task of reading and review.
Understanding and Prioritization: A ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nNio6eGa6wnXrrZjS/progressive-highlighting-picking-what-to-make-into |
# Julia Galef and Matt Yglesias on bioethics and "ethics expertise"
I recently collected excerpts from [33 random bioethics papers from 2014–2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wzjjynmp8gMmdX6dt/thirty-three-randomly-selected-bioethics-papers), plus [10 papers from 2000](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wzjjynmp8gMmd... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dT2PxjZanKsenGuuj/julia-galef-and-matt-yglesias-on-bioethics-and-ethics |
# Logan Strohl on exercise norms
(cw: exercise, shame)
(also relevant: [Shame Processing](http://agentyduck.blogspot.com/2019/12/shame-processing_29.html))
Logan Strohl said some things about exercise (and shame, and [aspiring to be better](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DoLQN5ryZ9XkZjq5h/tsuyoku-naritai-i-want-to-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RrCjPMKi8fpfGZ2cu/logan-strohl-on-exercise-norms |
# How do we prepare for final crunch time?
*\[Crossposted from* [*Musings and Rough Drafts*](https://musingsandroughdrafts.wordpress.com/2021/03/12/how-do-we-prepare-for-final-crunch-time-some-initial-thoughts/)*.\]*
*Epistemic status: Brainstorming and first draft thoughts.*
*Inspired by something that Ruby Bloom w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wyYubb3eC5FS365nk/how-do-we-prepare-for-final-crunch-time |
# Infohazard Discussion with Anders Sandberg
[Join on Zoom](https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82851183625?pwd=bFFJWjRVV0piemY3UCtQOGlpTWlzQT09)
The plan for this event is as follows:
1) We'll watch a recording of a [recent infohazard talk by Anders Sandberg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn2vgQGNI_c). During the t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/bCieSWDhZi3AvRAu2/infohazard-discussion-with-anders-sandberg |
# TAI?
It looks like people around here are now using the acronym TAI with the accompanying definition "**transformative AI is AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution."**
Is there some kind of consensus that this hasn't already happened?
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MCfJZKsncKpG9hCYX/tai |
# Rationalism before the Sequences
I'm here to tell you a story about what it was like to be a rationalist decades before the Sequences and the formation of the modern rationalist community. It is not the only story that could be told, but it is one that runs parallel to and has important connections to Eliezer Yudko... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qc7P2NwfxQMC3hdgm/rationalism-before-the-sequences |
# Many methods of causal inference try to identify a "safe" subset of variation
(crossposted from my [substack](https://tailcalled.substack.com/p/many-methods-of-causal-inference))
I have been thinking a lot about causality lately, and as a result I’ve come up with a common way to think of many different methods of c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qYRXDRBg6Raw5n3nr/many-methods-of-causal-inference-try-to-identify-a-safe |
# How many micromorts do you get per UV-index-hour?
I'm trying to get a good estimate of the risks associated with sun exposure.
I'm assuming things scale linearly (the UV index units, which need a name ("UVees"?) are linear).
This may not be a good assumption, but it seems somewhat likely that it would be within th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hT4BbygpPiZb48en6/how-many-micromorts-do-you-get-per-uv-index-hour |
# A command-line grammar of graphics
Sometimes I'm at my command prompt and I want to draw a graph.
Problem: I don't know [gnuplot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnuplot). Also, there's a couple things about it that bug me, and make me not enthusiastic about learning it.
One is that it seems not really designed for ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cs3GK3BJteLETyucu/a-command-line-grammar-of-graphics |
# Optimization, speculations on the X and only X problem.
Epistemic status: Speculative. Rambling stream of ideas.
Recomended semiprerequisite [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DkcdXsP56g9kXyBdq/coherence-arguments-imply-a-force-for-goal-directed-behavior](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DkcdXsP56g9kXyBdq/coherence-ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PhKZgz5Gxw9soHtng/optimization-speculations-on-the-x-and-only-x-problem |
# Hardware is already ready for the singularity. Algorithm knowledge is the only barrier.
How close are we to a singularity? Well, computers started being able to think faster than us in the 1990s, (neurons have a processing speed of [200 Hz](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MD3NMLBPCqPfnfre/cached-thoughts)), and are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m5rvZBKyMRtFo53wZ/hardware-is-already-ready-for-the-singularity-algorithm |
# Goldfish Reading
> *Math is like constructing a Lego set on a picnic table outside in the middle of a thunderstorm. I grope blindly in the pouring rain for the first piece, and finally put it in place, but by the time I’ve found the second piece and move to connect it to the first piece, the first piece has blown aw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fSos4ZwdQmRuLLnwK/goldfish-reading |
# Speculations Concerning the First Free-ish Prediction Market
Suppose [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/) launches their cool new prediction marketplace soon, and it attracts a large userbase with high trading volume, *and* it doesn’t get shut down or strangled with red tape. What then?
Speculations
------------
* [Rep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNJNJ2cRyvSLp2owH/speculations-concerning-the-first-free-ish-prediction-market |
# Menstrual cycle effects—Clue study summary and commentary
Two months ago, I posted a question asking how LessWrong users [optimize their productivity with respect to their menstrual cycle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LR2GzrYdActDhZFxw/how-do-you-optimize-productivity-with-respect-to-your). User [AM](https://www.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fnCz8S6PocTxpB2ie/menstrual-cycle-effects-clue-study-summary-and-commentary |
# What Do We Know About The Consciousness, Anyway?
*Epistemic Status: Speculations on top of well established theories.*
Introduction
============
As the conventional memetic wisdom goes, “after decades and decades of research, the science sill have no idea how the human mind works”. As anyone passingly familiar wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vGbWsxnCxamQzbY4g/what-do-we-know-about-the-consciousness-anyway |
# What Multipolar Failure Looks Like, and Robust Agent-Agnostic Processes (RAAPs)
***With:** Thomas Krendl Gilbert, who provided comments, interdisciplinary feedback, and input on the RAAP concept. Thanks also for comments from Ramana Kumar.*
***Target audience:** researchers and institutions who think about existen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic |
# What is the semantics of assigning probabilities to future events?
My question concerns the semantics of making future predictions such as 'the probability of X winning the election is 70%'. There are programs, e.g., [Good Judgment](https://goodjudgment.com/), [IARPA ACE](https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-pro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eyodthcFCgvDJ8J73/what-is-the-semantics-of-assigning-probabilities-to-future |
# Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack
*(This is a crosspost from our new SubStack.* [*Go read the original*](https://lesswrong.substack.com/p/coming-soon)*.)*
### Subtitle: We really, really needed the money.
*Content Notice: Mild to Moderate NSFW language,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ThCE4nuszh2HpSeph/center-for-applied-postrationality-an-update-1 |
# Covid 4/1: Vaccine Passports
Writer’s Note: This is being posted on April 1, which is April Fools Day. To avoid all ‘is _this_ the fake out?’ issues, this post _does not contain any April Fools material._ The fools contained herein are the usual, regularly scheduled fools we talk about every week. The official April... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fyBTuk65yxdHjTv5J/covid-4-1-vaccine-passports |
# A new acausal trading platform: RobinShould
After receiving overwhelming demand, we're excited to announce our new platform for conducting [multiverse wide trades](https://longtermrisk.org/files/Multiverse-wide-Cooperation-via-Correlated-Decision-Making.pdf) with other civilizations: RobinShould.
At RobinShould, we... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CRiJuJxgArjBMJLvK/a-new-acausal-trading-platform-robinshould |
# Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
**Highlights**
--------------
* OpenPhilanthropy releases a report on [outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors)
* Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿senior? [official in t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGHtomuh55375u7RT/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021 |
# April drafts
_By Katja Grace, April 1 2021_
Today we are sharing with our blog readers a collection of yet-to-be-published drafts, in the hope of receiving feedback. We are especially looking for methodological critique, but all comments welcome!
[Human-level performance estimate](https://docs.google.com/document/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9facA2MMtPrGvxy9h/april-drafts |
# "AI and Compute" trend isn't predictive of what is happening
(open in a new tab to view at higher resolution)
In May 2018 (almost 3 years ago) OpenAI published their ["AI and Compute"](https://openai.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wfpdejMWog4vEDLDg/ai-and-compute-trend-isn-t-predictive-of-what-is-happening |
# 2 innovative life extension approaches using cryonics technology
*x-post on [LessDead](http://lessdead.com/2-innovative-life-extension-approaches-using-cryonics-technology)*
**Edit**: This was posted on April's fool :) (note: for some timezones, this was posted on April 2nd; oops) While the core ideas are not entir... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AdZdJ8hdQbmEoQpQZ/2-innovative-life-extension-approaches-using-cryonics |
# The Meaning Crisis
This Sunday at 12pm PT, Vaniver will give a talk about the "Meaning Crisis" – what previous solutions have looked like, and what new solutions might look like. This is informed by the lecture series by John Vervaeke, previously [discussed here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i4BYp9xZeEebhg7qM/lec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/iZP5iAZjdtmqsSjFN/the-meaning-crisis |
# 2012 Robin Hanson comment on “Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import”
The 2013 anthology [*Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment*](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-642-32560-1) (edited by Eden, Moor, Soraker, and Steinhart) included short responses to some articles. The r... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GthhzjHDjxrBH5jah/2012-robin-hanson-comment-on-intelligence-explosion-evidence |
# Notes from "Don't Shoot the Dog"
*Cross-posted from* [*The Whole Sky*](https://thewholesky.wordpress.com/2021/04/01/notes-from-dont-shoot-the-dog/)*.*
I just finished Karen Pryor’s “[Don’t Shoot the Dog: the New Art of Teaching and Training](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31052.Don_t_Shoot_the_Dog_).” Part... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cf2xxC3Yx9g6w7yXN/notes-from-don-t-shoot-the-dog |
# [AN #144]: How language models can also be finetuned for non-language tasks
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through *... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/by5NkEoSC4gvo9bQ2/an-144-how-language-models-can-also-be-finetuned-for-non |
# Learning Russian Roulette
*Surprisingly, our current theories of anthropics don't seem to cover this.*
You have a revolver with six chambers. One of them has a bullet in it. You are offered $1 for spinning the barrel, pointing at your head, and pulling the trigger. You remember doing this many times, and surviving ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/L5Tf34FXA6weiGwEz/learning-russian-roulette |
# Analyzing Multiplayer Games using IMPACT
*This post is an informal writeup of an idea discovered while investigating* [*POWER*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/7CdoznhJaLEKHwvJW/p/6DuJxY8X45Sco4bS2)*. It offers an additional tool for* [*framing multi-agent games in terms of attainable utility*](https://www.lesswrong.com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ypySHD723fMu9YywE/analyzing-multiplayer-games-using-impact |
# My take on Michael Littman on "The HCI of HAI"
*This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Many thanks to Professor Littman for reviewing a draft of this post.*
---
Yesterday, at a semin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wydAtj6FkPDHkdtzS/my-take-on-michael-littman-on-the-hci-of-hai |
# Affordances
I noticed recently that, although the term "affordance" seems to be in the LessWrong lexicon, there isn't any article about it. I think it might be one of those concepts which you currently have to pick up from CFAR, or learn through osmosis. This seems like an important concept, so I'm going to attempt ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8Z74oZWHrkCjrren/affordances |
# Phylactery Decision Theory
*This is definitely a hack, but it seems to solve many problems around Cartesian Boundaries. Much of this is development of* [*earlier ideas*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RmPKdMqSr2xRwrqyE/the-dualist-predict-o-matic-usd100-prize?commentId=L99Ybntv6po9NoYyd) *about the Predict-O-Matic,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pba68kdmmHrp9oHGG/phylactery-decision-theory |
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