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values | community_predictions stringlengths 45 72.7k | url stringlengths 34 126 | background stringlengths 1 4.95k | gpt_3p5_category stringclasses 11
values | resolution_criteria stringlengths 43 5.42k | is_resolved bool 1
class | date_close stringlengths 10 10 | question stringlengths 31 259 | data_source stringclasses 5
values | resolution float64 0 1 |
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2022-11-29 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.5158337093447952], ["2022-11-15", 0.5202538365976025], ["2022-11-15", 0.5635249072664852], ["2022-11-15", 0.5835601986724969], ["2022-11-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-15", 0.6620419451964791], ["2022-11-16", 0.44810179459741717], ["2022-11-16", 0.4699999999999998], ["2022-11-17", 0.4974320919132... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2022-fifa-world-cup-will-the-usa-ma | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | 2022 FIFA World Cup: Will the USA make it to the Round of 16? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-15", 0.7600997984838306], ["2022-11-22", 0.994133790552712]] | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-lionel-messi-score-a-goal-duri | Nov 15, 10:54am: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-22 | Will Lionel Messi score at least one goal during his first game at the World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.37174721189591103], ["2022-11-15", 0.37620694201306715], ["2022-11-15", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-15", 0.4285558666512164], ["2022-11-30", 0.34497308215310374], ["2022-12-01", 0.33274481503478687], ["2022-12-01", 0.34489421263541864], ["2022-12-01", 0.36837489014838554], ["2022-12-01", 0.52077133... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-team-not-concede-any-goals-a | Resolves YES if a team does not have any goals against at the end of their three matches of the group phase. Nov 15, 10:51am: Close date updated to 2022-12-02 4:05 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will all teams concede at least one goal at the group phase of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-22", 0.9977799484948051]] | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-lionel-messi-score-a-goal-duri-14a7bf2e137a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-22 | Will Lionel Messi score a goal during his first 30 minutes of play at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-11-15 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-15", 0.4103370631607129], ["2022-11-15", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-15", 0.5132452872349923], ["2022-11-18", 0.2752895439424645], ["2022-11-18", 0.29914752380007853], ["2022-11-21", 0.2283696041945801], ["2022-11-21", 0.24128968462127623], ["2022-11-22", 0.08999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.10289995393... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-argentina-score-4-or-more-goal | Resolves YES if Argentina scores 4 or more goals against Saudi Arabia on their first World Cup game (November 22). | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-22 | Will Argentina score 4 or more goals during their first game at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-31 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.5897688624074015], ["2022-11-16", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-16", 0.6331531521481903], ["2022-11-16", 0.659599224568922], ["2022-11-17", 0.6596288650820714], ["2022-11-21", 0.6356371033209942], ["2022-11-22", 0.5411584185718092], ["2022-11-22", 0.55], ["2022-11-22", 0.5699726192527654], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-lindsey-graham-endorse-trump | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-31 | Will Lindsey Graham endorse Trump? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-13 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.7785467128027682], ["2022-11-16", 0.8999999999999999], ["2022-11-19", 0.802167728760996], ["2022-11-19", 0.8222235392162893], ["2022-11-19", 0.8393743501726292], ["2022-12-08", 0.96], ["2022-12-08", 0.9717777587205987], ["2022-12-12", 0.9360825890599415], ["2022-12-12", 0.9385057585880318], ["2022-12-... | https://manifold.markets/Michaelscott/the-next-inflation-report-cpi-will | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-13 | The next inflation report (cpi) will be under 7.7% (dec. 13) | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-19 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.0023386971277071155], ["2022-11-16", 0.07978038713304263], ["2022-11-16", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-11-17", 0.07018826721127011], ["2022-11-18", 0.005394241529183916], ["2022-11-18", 0.005945033863614222], ["2022-11-18", 0.03486860632249851], ["2022-11-19", 0.005185294751416142], ["2022-11-19", 0.00... | https://manifold.markets/2suen/will-tiny-play-warzone-with-mrmouto | Close date updated to 2022-11-20 5:00 am | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-20 | Will Tiny play Warzone with MrMouton Friday OR Saturday? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-16", 0.3001392469732322], ["2022-11-16", 0.31606753212205174], ["2022-11-16", 0.3288590604026846], ["2022-11-16", 0.3513086052360143], ["2022-11-17", 0.2718895340118915], ["2022-11-17", 0.47617877735543124], ["2022-11-17", 0.48779478815181354], ["2022-11-17", 0.54000000000... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-genesis-go-bankrupt-in-2022 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Genesis go bankrupt in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.4445361346041893], ["2022-11-16", 0.4899999999999999], ["2022-11-16", 0.5360454607881185], ["2022-11-16", 0.5365901916602493], ["2022-11-16", 0.54], ["2022-11-16", 0.55], ["2022-11-16", 0.5697423703479657], ["2022-11-16", 0.5923014450029582], ["2022-11-16", 0.6], ["2022-11-16", 0.6042828977637259], ["... | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-a-federal-protection-for-gay-m-68798131a130 | Question resolves to YES if the US president signs into law a federal protection for same-sex marriage before the end-of-day on Dec 25th, 2022. Purely executive action does not count. Such a bill has currently passed the House at time of this market's creation and is scheduled for a vote in the Senate. Creator betting ... | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law by Christmas Day, 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.39407313997477944], ["2022-11-16", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-18", 0.31926663545320016], ["2022-11-18", 0.34366085761189824], ["2022-11-18", 0.39407313997477933], ["2022-11-21", 0.3620401491490618], ["2022-11-21", 0.4276124305204043], ["2022-11-21", 0.5164149308614476], ["2022-11-22", 0.6004349218... | https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-the-gbtc-bitcoin-etf-dissolve | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will the GBTC Bitcoin ETF dissolve in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-16", 0.2679030344447421], ["2022-11-16", 0.30769230769230776], ["2022-11-16", 0.31760627377994327], ["2022-11-19", 0.3255159267201073], ["2022-11-19", 0.35000000000000003], ["2022-11-19", 0.35000000000000003], ["2022-11-19", 0.35000000000000003], ["2022-11-19", 0.53], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/Chocobo/will-an-asian-country-make-it-to-th | Five asian countries qualified for the 2022 FIFA World Cup: Quatar (Group A), Iran (Group B), Saudi Arabia (Group C), Japan (Group E), South Korea (Group H) | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will an asian country make it to the 2022 FIFA World Cup knockout stage? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-22 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-16", 0.8269996688193322], ["2022-11-16", 0.8461123130880887], ["2022-11-16", 0.85537200946388], ["2022-11-16", 0.8607742841568307], ["2022-11-16", 0.8620689655172414], ["2022-11-17", 0.808804629054035], ["2022-11-17", 0.83], ["2022-11-17", 0.836667069494265], ["2022-11-17"... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-elden-ring-win-game-of-the-yea | The Game Award for Game of the Year is an award presented annually by The Game Awards. It is given to a video game judged to deliver the best experience across creative and technical fields. The Game Awards are scheduled to be held on December 8, 2022 at the Microsoft Theater in Los Angeles, California, USA. This mar... | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-22 | Will "Elden Ring" win Game of the Year? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.09935187042311444], ["2022-11-16", 0.10202924838453688], ["2022-11-16", 0.11000000000000003], ["2022-11-16", 0.20000000000000007], ["2022-11-16", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-11-16", 0.26470588235294124], ["2022-11-16", 0.26470588235294124], ["2022-11-16", 0.26470588235294124], ["2022-11-20", 0.087813... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-any-nato-member-country-invoke | Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by th... | Security & Defense | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-18 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-16", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-16", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-11-16", 0.7240922635470695], ["2022-11-16", 0.7564908698536624], ["2022-11-16", 0.7837241698675967], ["2022-11-17", 0.8017762652029752], ["2023-01-01", 0.9399540781143706], ["2023-01-01", 0.95764483180447... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-novak-djokovic-play-in-the-202 | Former world number one Novak Djokovic will be granted a visa to play in the 2023 Australian Open, local media reports said Tuesday, despite his deportation from the country ahead of this year's tournament in January. The tournament starts on January 16: Close date updated to 2023-01-18 11:59 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-18 | Will Novak Djokovic play in the 2023 Australian Open? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-25 | 2022-11-16 | ["https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/white-christmas"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.20344473887382616], ["2022-11-16", 0.21612525109628816], ["2022-11-16", 0.23697055518917046], ["2022-11-16", 0.2563276732059525], ["2022-11-16", 0.2699999999999999], ["2022-11-16", 0.2968017312956079], ["2022-11-16", 0.2999653993234045], ["2022-11-16", 0.35], ["2022-11-16", 0.35619364147322874], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/mat/will-it-be-a-white-christmas-in-the | Will resolve based on the Met Office's statement "The definition that the Met Office uses to define a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. Traditionally we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the M... | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-25 | Will it be a White Christmas in the UK | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.05333923417403435], ["2022-11-16", 0.07999999999999999], ["2022-11-16", 0.1451624368057031], ["2022-11-16", 0.15999999999999998], ["2022-11-16", 0.16000000000000003], ["2022-11-16", 0.17440445813683136], ["2022-11-16", 0.18999999999999997], ["2022-11-16", 0.19651331441303047], ["2022-11-16", 0.2036724... | https://manifold.markets/Chrrxs/will-lav-reappear-on-stream-before | Will lav reappear on stream before the end of november? Resolves to yes if Lav appears on destiny's stream (in voicechat or in person) before the end of November 30th, 2022. Close date updated to 2022-11-30 11:59 pm | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Lav reappear on stream before the end of November? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.778693493515118], ["2022-11-16", 0.8513491494129378], ["2022-11-16", 0.8599999999999992], ["2022-11-16", 0.86], ["2022-11-16", 0.8729138050632553], ["2022-11-16", 0.8999999999999999], ["2022-11-18", 0.6706501808064909], ["2022-11-18", 0.69], ["2022-11-18", 0.7115329415583639], ["2022-11-18", 0.74], ["... | https://manifold.markets/AIvt/will-riot-games-give-an-update-abou | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | will riot games give an update about project L by the first of December ? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.1660377207984569], ["2022-11-16", 0.17999999999999994], ["2022-11-16", 0.18922275373057593], ["2022-11-16", 0.2], ["2022-11-16", 0.2], ["2022-11-16", 0.2], ["2022-11-16", 0.2], ["2022-11-16", 0.21728637812706508], ["2022-11-16", 0.25396436401288197], ["2022-11-16", 0.36681999590809805], ["2022-11-16",... | https://manifold.markets/RumHammithy/will-ron-desantis-announce-his-cand | Will resolve as YES if Ron DeSantis announces on any platform or files any paperwork for a 2024 republican presidential candidacy. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will Ron DeSantis announce his candidacy before January 1st 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-16 | 2022-11-16 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.02746599477957381], ["2022-11-16", 0.03221602659950377], ["2022-11-16", 0.03783193369028435], ["2022-11-16", 0.046896243304802306], ["2022-11-16", 0.08948431428348311], ["2022-11-16", 0.09000000000000001], ["2022-11-16", 0.09058078655456567], ["2022-11-16", 0.1], ["2022-11-16", 0.13999999999999999], [... | https://manifold.markets/Cooley/will-dgg-get-a-15x-or-higher-lulw-c | O LULW | Arts & Recreation | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-16 | Will DGG get a 15x or higher LULW combo in the next 15 minutes? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-19 | 2022-11-16 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry?wprov=sfla1", "https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401418602"] | BINARY | [["2022-11-16", 0.19655519191017404], ["2022-11-16", 0.24999999999999997], ["2022-11-16", 0.3], ["2022-11-16", 0.34000000000000014], ["2022-11-16", 0.34000000000000014], ["2022-11-16", 0.34000000000000014], ["2022-11-16", 0.35690742986238994], ["2022-11-16", 0.39], ["2022-11-16", 0.39], ["2022-11-16", 0.39], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/RobiRahman/who-will-win-the-harvard-vs-yale-fo | This weekend is the 138th instance of the Harvard vs Yale football game, the oldest rivalry in American football. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard%E2%80%93Yale_football_rivalry?wprov=sfla1 https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401418602 Who will win? | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-19 | Will Harvard win the football game vs Yale on November 19? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-13 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-11-23", 0.4544395477810546], ["2022-11-23", 0.4551892774820026], ["2022-11-23", 0.5459252136476771], ["2022-11-23", 0.5476511889664758], ["2022-11-23", 0.5989515748434794], ["2022-11-23", 0.6099999999999999], ["2022-11-23", 0.65], ["2022-11-23", 0.677746929459635], ["2022-11-... | https://manifold.markets/MaxBittker/will-dwarf-fortress-sell-250k-units | Dwarf Fortress goes on sale on steam on December 6th. The price is currently unconfirmed. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-13 | Will Dwarf Fortress sell >250k units in the first two months? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.3100000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.31000000000000016], ["2022-11-22", 0.3300000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.41682356633894085], ["2022-11-22", 0.42796877614772855], ["2022-11-22", 0.5291546032038509], ["2022-11-22", 0.6119007993152309], ["2022-11-23", 0.3537893845597166], ["2022-11-23", 0.38724475611... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-argentina-reach | Resolves YES if Argentina's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | 2022 World Cup: Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.27999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.27999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.20443838612151674], ["2022-11-23", 0.2357815854628823], ["2022-11-23", 0.2597201827880421], ["2022-11-23", 0.27273702587444004], ["2022-11-24", 0.19113036594912683], ["2022-11-24", 0.19999999... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-uruguay-reach-t | Resolves YES if Uruguay's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | 2022 World Cup: Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.2704542292771941], ["2022-11-22", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.34], ["2022-11-28", 0.34212879339964], ["2022-11-29", 0.0003679189818601608], ["2022-11-29", 0.01018205012723001], ["2022-11-29", 0.01018205012723001], ["2022-11-29", 0.01018205012723001], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-ecuador-reach-t | Resolves YES if Ecuador's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | 2022 World Cup: Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.55], ["2022-11-22", 0.55], ["2022-11-23", 0.6090158026753949], ["2022-11-23", 0.6485266951433074], ["2022-11-24", 0.6771422236577508], ["2022-11-25", 0.6692816768491181], ["2022-11-28", 0.691897629502772], ["2022-11-29", 0.7098847911415227], ["2022-12-01", 0.6939525853669775], ["2022-12-01", 0.7246250... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-spain-reach-the | Resolves YES if Spain's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | 2022 World Cup: Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-03 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.59], ["2022-11-22", 0.5999999999999999], ["2022-11-22", 0.6], ["2022-11-23", 0.7395846199784072], ["2022-11-24", 0.612235851599291], ["2022-11-24", 0.6571863266680851], ["2022-11-24", 0.6625948339662889], ["2022-11-24", 0.6625948339662889], ["2022-11-24", 0.6625948339662889], ["2022-11-24", 0.71246499... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-netherlands-rea | Resolves YES if Netherlands's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Close date updated to 2022-12-03 12:59 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-03 | 2022 World Cup: Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.18050962645411747], ["2022-11-22", 0.20999999999999994], ["2022-11-22", 0.20999999999999994], ["2022-11-22", 0.20999999999999994], ["2022-11-22", 0.21], ["2022-11-22", 0.21], ["2022-11-22", 0.23999999999999994], ["2022-11-23", 0.18584341565602588], ["2022-11-23", 0.19995289498956442], ["2022-11-24", 0... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-switzerland-rea | Resolves YES if Switzerland's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | 2022 World Cup: Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.213136970901097], ["2022-11-22", 0.25], ["2022-11-22", 0.25], ["2022-11-22", 0.2500000000000003], ["2022-11-22", 0.2700000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.22772168368790668], ["2022-11-24", 0.11], ["2022-11-24", 0.11], ["2022-11-24", 0.11], ["2022-11-24", 0.12000000000000002], ["2022-11-24", 0.16092451968... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-germany-reach-t | Resolves YES if Germany's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | 2022 World Cup: Will Germany reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.555817344408811], ["2022-11-23", 0.32880827069063195], ["2022-11-23", 0.38727460546888215], ["2022-11-23", 0.4245529876282191], ["2022-11-23", 0.4541600461183812], ["2022-11-24", 0.4749982615... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-portugal-reach | Resolves YES if Portugal's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | 2022 World Cup: Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.22021837404055483], ["2022-11-22", 0.22189659452076166], ["2022-11-22", 0.2218965945207617], ["2022-11-22", 0.26], ["2022-11-22", 0.26], ["2022-11-22", 0.26], ["2022-11-22", 0.26000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.26000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.26000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.280000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-portugal-reach-ea2d467b5ddb | Resolves YES if Portugal's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | 2022 World Cup: Will Portugal reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.2486788982783319], ["2022-11-22", 0.2937205632078847], ["2022-11-22", 0.29521509571979654], ["2022-11-22", 0.35], ["2022-11-22", 0.3500000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.36], ["2022-11-24", 0.2720712263370686], ["2022-11-27", 0.3222995138115621], ["2022-11-30", 0.3400000000000001], ["2022-11-30", 0.37240... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-netherlands-rea-10df78244793 | Resolves YES if Netherlands's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | 2022 World Cup: Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-05 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999995], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.25], ["2022-11-23", 0.19126722573827415], ["2022-11-23", 0.26424703354938134], ["2022-11-23", 0.28930105965378716], ["2022-11-24", 0.1999999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.1999999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.1999999999999999], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-croatia-reach-t | Resolves YES if Croatia's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-05 | 2022 World Cup: Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.25360924853026334], ["2022-11-22", 0.30000000000000004], ["2022-11-22", 0.3000000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.30000000000000043], ["2022-11-22", 0.31999999999999995], ["2022-11-27", 0.3703696040880394], ["2022-11-28", 0.3389573483385586], ["2022-11-29", 0.3390496706980371], ["2022-11-29", 0.3655211742... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-spain-reach-the-97d24c34a23f | Resolves YES if Spain's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | 2022 World Cup: Will Spain reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-11-22", 0.3200000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.34], ["2022-11-26", 0.2812379391602964], ["2022-11-28", 0.25534691395340187], ["2022-11-30", 0.0008766126264126826], ["2022-11-30", 0.05000000000000006], ["2022-11-30", 0.05664894225373116], ["2022-11-30", 0.07000000000000006], [... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-denmark-reach-t | Resolves YES if Denmark's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | 2022 World Cup: Will Denmark reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.2700000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.2700000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.29], ["2022-11-23", 0.5249062228874956], ["2022-11-23", 0.5910869741358576], ["2022-11-24", 0.34112569655812874], ["2022-11-24", 0.3640618193999269], ["2022-11-24", 0.3890088394915806], ["2022-11-24", 0.41077976926631504], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-belgium-reach-t | Resolves YES if Belgium's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | 2022 World Cup: Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.5799999999999998], ["2022-11-22", 0.5799999999999998], ["2022-11-22", 0.58], ["2022-11-22", 0.58], ["2022-11-22", 0.58], ["2022-11-22", 0.6523783389258716], ["2022-11-23", 0.48776063408915915], ["2022-11-23", 0.5755321599934573], ["2022-11-24", 0.5640257143155494], ["2022-11-24", 0.58], ["2022-11-24",... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-england-reach-t | Resolves YES if England's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | 2022 World Cup: Will England reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.2777193589818336], ["2022-11-22", 0.33], ["2022-11-22", 0.33000000000000007], ["2022-11-22", 0.35], ["2022-11-24", 0.2521301876725928], ["2022-11-28", 0.28], ["2022-11-28", 0.31152675862882606], ["2022-11-28", 0.32000000000000006], ["2022-11-28", 0.3397227263787259], ["2022-11-28", 0.36], ["2022-11-28... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-brazil-reach-th | Resolves YES if Brazil's Men's National Team reaches the Finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | 2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-14 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.18796886214832703], ["2022-11-22", 0.18953227431713107], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999995], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999995], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.21999999999999997], ["2022-11-22", 0.25], ["2022-11-23", 0.23999999999999996], [... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-france-reach-th | Resolves YES if France's Men's National Team reaches the Finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-14 | 2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Finals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4], ["2022-11-22", 0.4], ["2022-11-22", 0.4099999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.5493623909203411], ["2022-11-25", 0.4395324765322658], ["2022-11-25", 0.491277019517608], ["2022-11-28", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-28", 0.48831880622240287], ["2022-12-04", 0.4886338554404256], ["2022-12-04", 0.49], ["... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-france-reach-th-6eb1117542a2 | Resolves YES if France's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | 2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.45999999999999996], ["2022-11-22", 0.5545467797424863], ["2022-11-28", 0.5221961753560169], ["2022-11-29", 0.4712718625892172], ["2022-11-30", 0.5172669243776203], ["2022-12-01", 0.55], ["2022-12-01", 0.5529860768208914], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-brazil-reach-th-7c3363b56c9a | Resolves YES if Brazil's Men's National Team reaches the Semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | 2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Semifinals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-04 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.65], ["2022-11-22", 0.66], ["2022-11-22", 0.66], ["2022-11-22", 0.66], ["2022-11-22", 0.6600000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.6600000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.7159524793038567], ["2022-11-26", 0.6933121281983715], ["2022-11-26", 0.7185474858637778], ["2022-11-26", 0.7409125713488902], ["2022-11-28", ... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-france-reach-th-5863282aa4d8 | Resolves YES if France's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-04 | 2022 World Cup: Will France reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-06 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.66], ["2022-11-22", 0.68], ["2022-11-22", 0.68], ["2022-11-22", 0.68], ["2022-11-22", 0.68], ["2022-11-22", 0.6800000000000002], ["2022-11-22", 0.7315128646222917], ["2022-11-22", 0.7726002265994225], ["2022-11-23", 0.7108543957427578], ["2022-11-23", 0.7332231697780897], ["2022-11-23", 0.739999999999... | https://manifold.markets/a/2022-world-cup-will-brazil-reach-th-8e8b19762952 | Resolves YES if Brazil's Men's National Team reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-06 | 2022 World Cup: Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-22", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-11-22", 0.5553827502942473], ["2022-11-23", 0.45170079968717874], ["2022-11-23", 0.48], ["2022-11-23", 0.49478418368918303], ["2022-12-24", 0.4499999999999999], ["2023-01-01", 0.32545311571751945], ["2023-01-02", 0.19663937421672456], ["202... | https://manifold.markets/LiteChaos/will-next-us-house-speaker-receive | Vote for House speaker is normaly partisan where minority members never vote for the majority party's leader, will this time be different so the selected US House Speaker receives votes from both Democratic and Republican members? Close date updated to 2023-01-06 9:00 am Close date updated to 2023-01-09 9:00 am | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will next US House Speaker receive bipartisan votes? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-27 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-22", 0.6259898215039351], ["2022-11-22", 0.7213843284441271], ["2022-11-23", 0.3619405090055831], ["2022-11-23", 0.38999999999999996], ["2022-11-23", 0.41999999999999993], ["2022-11-23", 0.45218904873409227], ["2022-11-23", 0.45218904873409227], ["2022-11-23", 0.4521890487... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-croatia-win-against-canada-at | Resolves YES if the Croatia wins against Canada in their group match on November 27. Resolves NO if Canada wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-27 | Will Croatia win against Canada at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-27 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.6042827557009965], ["2022-11-22", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-22", 0.7020115698466403], ["2022-11-23", 0.47398642026241045], ["2022-11-23", 0.48000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.49000000000000005], ["2022-11-23", 0.49000000000000005], ["2022-11-23", 0.49000000000000005], ["2022-11-23", 0.490000000... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-belgium-win-against-morocco-at | Resolves YES if the Belgium wins against Morocco in their group match on November 27. Resolves NO if Morocco wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-27 | Will Belgium win against Morocco at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-23 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-11-22", 0.718828650831327], ["2022-11-22", 0.7429305912596401], ["2022-11-23", 0.6114648408312343], ["2022-11-23", 0.639472567285399], ["2022-11-23", 0.6523429937475121], ["2022-11-23", 0.6536378752693969], ["2022-11-23", 0.6718316050615329], ["2022-11-23", 0.683416323121852]... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-9-or-more-goals-on-no | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score in the nov 23 world cup matches is 9 or more. Resolves to NO if the total is 8 or less. The matches are: -Morocco vs Croatia -Germany vs Japan -Spain vs Costa Rica -Belgium vs Canada Nov 22, 3:07pm: Close date updated to 2022-11-23 5:59 pm | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-23 | Will there be 9 or more goals on Nov 23 at the FIFA World Cup | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-27 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-22", 0.3957172442990034], ["2022-11-22", 0.47942882387038394], ["2022-11-23", 0.4859018662799465], ["2022-11-23", 0.5466084491187498], ["2022-11-23", 0.5598389712687827], ["2022-11-23", 0.5799999999999998], ["2022-11-23", 0.5799999999999998], ["2022-11-23", 0.5799999999999... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-japan-win-against-costa-rica-a | Resolves YES if the Japan wins against Costa Rica in their group match on November 27. Resolves NO if Costa Rica wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-27 | Will Japan win against Costa Rica at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4042540830087343], ["2022-11-22", 0.4787896477308064], ["2022-11-22", 0.508822927930296], ["2022-11-22", 0.5673079347469806], ["2022-11-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.4162358848785379], ["2022-11-23", 0.44], ["2022-11-23", 0.44], ["2022-11-23", 0.44], ["2022-11-23", 0.49], ["2022-11-23", 0... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-tunisia-win-against-australia | Resolves YES if the Tunisia wins against Australia in their group match on November 26. Resolves NO if Australia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Will Tunisia win against Australia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.37796086239515225], ["2022-11-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-22", 0.4183836360755344], ["2022-11-22", 0.43000000000000016], ["2022-11-22", 0.45479657854563965], ["2022-11-22", 0.4660364864659315], ["2022-11-23", 0.4474647388473463], ["2022-11-23", 0.4474647388473463], ["2022-11-23", 0.44746473884... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-poland-win-against-saudi-arabi | Resolves YES if the Poland wins against Saudi Arabia in their group match on November 26. Resolves NO if Saudi Arabia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Will Poland win against Saudi Arabia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.5405760792146777], ["2022-11-22", 0.5614236043554202], ["2022-11-22", 0.5810536648515147], ["2022-11-22", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-22", 0.6556948078777027], ["2022-11-22", 0.6669051293685225], ["2022-11-22", 0.7131283406851665], ["2022-11-22", 0.7554422930392373], ["2022-11-23", 0.51099340344185... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-argentina-win-against-mexico-a | Resolves YES if the Argentina wins against Mexico in their group match on November 26. Resolves NO if Mexico wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Will Argentina win against Mexico at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.03535434988565486], ["2022-11-22", 0.03535434988565486], ["2022-11-22", 0.03535434988565486], ["2022-11-22", 0.14000000000000007], ["2022-11-22", 0.14000000000000007], ["2022-11-22", 0.14000000000000007], ["2022-11-22", 0.3316564161881884], ["2022-11-22", 0.34], ["2022-11-22", 0.3667721779514871], ["2... | https://manifold.markets/belikewater/will-there-be-a-railroad-strike-in | On November 21, 2022, the largest rail union in the US This question will resolve to "yes" if any rail union in the US declares and starts a strike before January 1, 2023, and the question will resolve to "no" otherwise. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will there be a railroad strike in the US before January 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-26 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4799999999999999], ["2022-11-22", 0.5074129639045171], ["2022-11-22", 0.5562906712642407], ["2022-11-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-22", 0.6059268600252206], ["2022-11-22", 0.6707403088717481], ["2022-11-23", 0.29584250809438134], ["2022-11-23", 0.4], ["2022-11-23", 0.4069973399038449], ["2022-11... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-france-win-against-denmark-at | Resolves YES if the France wins against Denmark in their group match on November 26. Resolves NO if Denmark wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-26 | Will France win against Denmark at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.2000000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.2950030150798572], ["2022-11-22", 0.31117258483615456], ["2022-11-22", 0.3288590604026846], ["2022-11-23", 0.307628858698815], ["2022-11-24", 0.30589328952130346], ["2022-11-24", 0.31999999999999984], ["2022-11-24", 0.31999999999999984], ["2022-11-24", 0.31999999999... | https://manifold.markets/NiklasWiklander/will-the-snow-melt-before-1-decembe | Image from my security camera. | Environment & Energy | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will the snow melt before 1 december? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-29 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.27264465313541364], ["2022-11-22", 0.29], ["2022-11-22", 0.34644942035414594], ["2022-11-22", 0.3966505068312033], ["2022-11-22", 0.3966505068312033], ["2022-11-22", 0.3966505068312033], ["2022-11-22", 0.4477100803058773], ["2022-11-22", 0.44877064056297455], ["2022-11-22", 0.4600000000000002], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/ElliotDavies/will-eafunds-resume-funding-before | Effective Ventures, who manage | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-29 | Will EA-Funds Resume Funding Before January 30, 2023 | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-22 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.00643635076513204], ["2022-11-22", 0.00792132139322552], ["2022-11-22", 0.01000000000000002], ["2022-11-22", 0.01571144885809295], ["2022-11-22", 0.021392766825448783], ["2022-11-22", 0.030000000000000002], ["2022-11-22", 0.1699238925091922], ["2022-11-22", 0.1799999999999999], ["2022-11-22", 0.193616... | https://manifold.markets/GabrieleGerste/will-mexico-win-against-poland-at-t-138eeb48fd03 | Resolves YES if Mexico wins against the Poland in their group match on November 22. Resolves NO if the Poland wins the match or the match ends in a tie | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-22 | Will Mexico win against Poland at the 2022 World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-15 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-22", 0.5128818883286825], ["2022-11-22", 0.5260658556878656], ["2022-11-22", 0.5299999999999999], ["2022-11-22", 0.5319257243140396], ["2022-11-22", 0.5900000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.5900000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.5900000000000001], ["2022-11-22", 0.59223666979058... | https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-there-be-2-or-more-new-current | The most recent current things have been the FTX drama and the Elon buying Twitter drama. Will there be 2 more of these before the year of our Lord 2022 is out? Resolves subjectively based on what I (an EA/tech person who goes on twitter a lot) think. Feel free to try and argue in the comments for things counting as a ... | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will there be 2 or more new "Current Thing"s before the end of 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.8151571164510167], ["2022-11-22", 0.8234961875176505], ["2022-11-22", 0.8412527887957908], ["2022-11-22", 0.863185137647528], ["2022-11-23", 0.8886292063372534], ["2022-11-23", 0.8944645214900108], ["2022-11-25", 0.9051604862847189], ["2022-11-25", 0.9096248066563389], ["2022-11-25", 0.913743373068756... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-rochelle-walensky-remain-direc | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Rochelle Walensky remain director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through 2022? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-31 | 2022-11-22 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-22", 0.06000000000000008], ["2022-11-22", 0.06392789811863996], ["2022-11-22", 0.07539364768480708], ["2022-11-22", 0.0785707078247204], ["2022-11-22", 0.08272155838480949], ["2022-11-22", 0.09357811204584661], ["2022-11-22", 0.1140159023378975], ["2022-11-22", 0.2009336916410745], ["2022-11-22", 0.219999999... | https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/will-alexei-navalny-be-alive-and-ou | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.2808988764044944], ["2022-11-23", 0.40383465670659124], ["2022-11-23", 0.5066564350275161], ["2022-11-24", 0.4188287603731577], ["2022-11-24", 0.45198575138536967], ["2022-12-02", 0.5146083825505229], ["2022-12-02", 0.5242019048361009], ["2022-12-03", 0.5111642878312133], ["2022-12-05", 0.539247003184... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-565fc643bd67 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above $17,000? | manifold | 0 |
2023-02-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.36416624362354466], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-23", 0.4299991859415981], ["2022-11-23", 0.5158848797375958], ["2022-11-23", 0.5426553765989779], ["2022-11-24", 0.5599999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.5845490596457387], ["2022-11-24", 0.6726016501403523], ["2022-11-24", 0.6804064660997... | https://manifold.markets/k3nneth/will-openai-release-gpt4-by-the-end | Any release counts (API, Playground only, etc.). A demo doesn't count. An announcement doesn't count. Must be released by Jan 31 2023. Close date updated to 2023-01-31 11:59 pm | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-02-01 | Will OpenAI release GPT-4 by the end of January, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-30 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.22053634438955544], ["2022-11-23", 0.34491733523723256], ["2022-11-23", 0.34491733523723256], ["2022-11-23", 0.34491733523723256], ["2022-11-23", 0.434858236214994], ["2022-11-23", 0.4523075365549076], ["2022-11-24", 0.2785046833867168], ["2022-11-24", 0.30983253313015435], ["2022-11-24", 0.3296866312... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-993f4c26b739 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above $18,000? | manifold | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.565141763785006], ["2022-11-23", 0.5921508623386108], ["2022-11-23", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-23", 0.6610057293467911], ["2022-11-23", 0.6812533220646119], ["2022-11-23", 0.71594177426509], ["2022-11-23", 0.7419946482978611], ["2022-11-23", 0.7592931585439591], ["2022-11-23", 0.7941677271499565]... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-78b8ed2ac2f3 | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above $15,000? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-11-23", 0.5898909280907059], ["2022-11-23", 0.6277640168163664], ["2022-11-23", 0.686627113544708], ["2022-11-24", 0.6172360649742502], ["2022-11-24", 0.6786311583808503], ["2022-11-24", 0.726732158353267], ["2022-11-27", 0.7082412051234992], ["2022-12-03", 0.74], ["2022-12-0... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above $14,000? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5427186835493903], ["2022-11-23", 0.5618776874218362], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.621103531466047], ["2022-11-23", 0.6511246490376816], ["2022-11-23", 0.6839468850971768], ["2022-11-24", 0.5027367015151492], ["2022-11-24", 0.505513819558417], ["2022-11-24", 0.5300000000000001... | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-closing-price-of-bitcoin-o-b2ca1452596a | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-01 | Will the closing price of Bitcoin on Dec 31, 2022 be above $16,000? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-23", 0.6684789815674311], ["2022-11-24", 0.6331605071822475], ["2022-11-24", 0.6331605071822478], ["2022-11-24", 0.6331605071822478], ["2022-11-24", 0.6331605071822487], ["2022-11-24", 0.6331605071822487], ["2022-11-24", 0.663903653784305], ["2022-11-24", 0.663903653784305... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-portugal-win-against-south-kor | Resolves YES if Portugal wins against South Korea in their group match on December 2. Resolves NO if South Korea wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will Portugal win against South Korea at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-24 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.21379409402284233], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.4843788137661705], ["2022-11-23", 0.5969484668416096], ["2022-11-23", 0.66], ["2022-11-23", 0.7899999999999999], ["2022-11-23", 0.8090121268209064], ["2022-11-23", 0.8324767222596091], ["2022-11-24", 0.00012102431214254318], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-10-or-more-goals-on-n | Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score in the nov 23 world cup matches is The matches are: -Switzerland vs Cameroon -Uruguay vs South Korea -Portugal vs Ghana | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-24 | Will there be 10 or more goals on Nov 24 at the FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.7191011235955056], ["2022-11-23", 0.7240922635470698], ["2022-11-24", 0.5473618045725499], ["2022-11-24", 0.5473618045725505], ["2022-11-24", 0.5473618045725505], ["2022-11-24", 0.5473618045725509], ["2022-11-24", 0.5473618045725509], ["2022-11-24", 0.5999999999999995], ["2022-11-24", 0.59999999999999... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-uruguay-against-ghana-at-the-2 | Resolves YES if Uruguay wins against Ghana in their group match on December 2. Resolves NO if Ghana wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will Uruguay win against Ghana at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.8], ["2022-11-23", 0.8044984766796383], ["2022-11-23", 0.8097991561322384], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.8350504953264336], ["2022-11-23", 0.8620689655172414], ["2022-11-23", 0.8635729822762451], ["2022-11-23", 0... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-brazil-win-against-cameroon-at | Resolves YES if Brazil wins against Cameroon in their group match on December 2. Resolves NO if Cameroon wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will Brazil win against Cameroon at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.129125866322095], ["2022-11-23", 0.23000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.4], ["2022-11-23", 0.4], ["2022-11-23", 0.4], ["2022-11-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-23", 0.5600000000000002], ["2022-11-23", 0.5600000000000002], ["2022-11-23", 0.5600000000000002], ["2022-11-23", 0.5873603656113758], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-switzerland-win-against-serbia | Resolves YES if Switzerland wins against Serbia in their group match on December 2. Resolves NO if Serbia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will Switzerland win against Serbia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-21 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.25706940874035994], ["2022-11-23", 0.3350766831074928], ["2022-11-23", 0.37605227804690067], ["2022-11-23", 0.40546191545494825], ["2022-11-23", 0.44735311502402875], ["2022-11-23", 0.6210200359742285], ["2022-11-23", 0.6737201998779123], ["2022-11-23", 0.6773700271568979], ["2022-11-23", 0.6773700271... | https://manifold.markets/MaxBittker/will-george-hotz-ship-the-ability-t | This will resolve to YES if there is a syntax to accomplish searching for tweets that have been liked by a certain user. | Science & Tech | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-21 | Will George Hotz ship the ability to search a user's Twitter likes in 2022? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-23", 0.46550835778103755], ["2022-11-23", 0.4784658801819287], ["2022-11-23", 0.5174558670809908], ["2022-11-23", 0.5515861251111771], ["2022-11-24", 0.33601244232912547], ["2022-11-24", 0.3499999999999998], ["2022-11-25", 0.3213555428048702], ["2022-11-25", 0.359110713872... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-ecuador-win-against-senegal-at-8800bbaa3e91 | Resolves YES if Ecuador wins against Senegal in their group match on November 29. Resolves NO if Senegal wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | Will Ecuador win against Senegal at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.29630751305192393], ["2022-11-23", 0.35], ["2022-11-23", 0.3522042298625002], ["2022-11-23", 0.36000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.3907363052478026], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-23", 0.4238181746162812], ["2022-11-23", 0.5156583496975876], ["2022-11-24", 0.32531928794451925], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/TexanElite/will-twitter-announce-plans-for-a-n | Resolves YES if a mainstream news outlet reports plans by March 1, 2023, resolves NO if otherwise. | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-03-01 | Will Twitter announce plans for a new office in Texas by March 1, 2023? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-11-23", 0.7429305912596401], ["2022-11-23", 0.780880603958317], ["2022-11-23", 0.8027442199335068], ["2022-11-23", 0.8042831668307011], ["2022-11-25", 0.7706734002490823], ["2022-11-25", 0.7754816746865504], ["2022-11-25", 0.793540781552862], ["2022-11-25", 0.793540781552862]... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-netherlands-win-against-qatar-cb56808480fb | Resolves YES if Netherlands wins against Qatar in their group match on November 29. Resolves NO if Qatar wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | Will Netherlands win against Qatar at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.7191011235955055], ["2022-11-23", 0.826145015661243], ["2022-11-23", 0.8275093320927087], ["2022-11-23", 0.8658893507102675], ["2022-11-24", 0.6409203206674228], ["2022-11-24", 0.644329418616746], ["2022-11-24", 0.644329418616746], ["2022-11-24", 0.644329418616747],... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-france-win-against-tunisia-at | Resolves YES if France wins against Tunisia in their group match on November 30. Resolves NO if Tunisia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will France win against Tunisia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-11 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.049115913555992124], ["2022-11-23", 0.06], ["2022-11-23", 0.080405329018865], ["2022-11-23", 0.08951218653798751], ["2022-11-23", 0.10021241445448957], ["2022-11-23", 0.11313170207281542], ["2022-11-23", 0.12859556146529943], ["2022-11-23", 0.147273249977293], ["2022-11-23", 0.14792899408284022], ["20... | https://manifold.markets/jack/2022-world-cup-will-england-reach-t-71b3bf5adf1c | Resolves YES if they reach the Final of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-11 | 2022 World Cup: Will England reach the Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-07 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.23584905660377364], ["2022-12-04", 0.19616656562466334], ["2022-12-04", 0.2207287808777345], ["2022-12-04", 0.24999999999999997], ["2022-12-04", 0.24999999999999997], ["2022-12-04", 0.24999999999999997], ["2022-12-04", 0.25377750426413825], ["2022-12-04", 0.25377750426413825], ["2022-12-04", 0.2537775... | https://manifold.markets/jack/2022-world-cup-will-spain-reach-the-50da002a84ed | Resolves YES if they reach the Finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-07 | 2022 World Cup: Will Spain reach the Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-10 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.1288659793814433], ["2022-11-23", 0.14792899408284022], ["2022-11-24", 0.11794197250021701], ["2022-11-24", 0.17125270023892708], ["2022-11-24", 0.18444627643528208], ["2022-11-24", 0.19939220945424463], ["2022-11-29", 0.1539934845625576], ["2022-11-29", 0.17999999999999994], ["2022-11-29", 0.17999999... | https://manifold.markets/jack/2022-world-cup-will-portugal-reach-6692c93c34b4 | Resolves YES if they reach the Finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-10 | 2022 World Cup: Will Portugal reach the Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-23", 0.6765078378890795], ["2022-11-24", 0.46841402973318313], ["2022-11-24", 0.4877139508955085], ["2022-11-24", 0.4877139508955085], ["2022-11-24", 0.4948958099623166], ["2022-11-24", 0.4948958099623168], ["2022-11-24", 0.4948958099623... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mexico-win-against-saudi-arabi | Resolves YES if Mexico wins against Saudi Arabia in their group match on November 30. Resolves NO if Saudi Arabia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will Mexico win against Saudi Arabia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.06476683937823836], ["2022-11-23", 0.14792899408284022], ["2022-11-23", 0.15216334755647043], ["2022-11-23", 0.2281249907617762], ["2022-11-24", 0.17216800703858334], ["2022-11-28", 0.15582197318642727], ["2022-11-29", 0.14359203090004333], ["2022-12-03", 0.17022980879510557], ["2022-12-03", 0.1776824... | https://manifold.markets/jack/2022-world-cup-will-netherlands-rea-3817e8eb961a | Resolves YES if they reach the Finals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | 2022 World Cup: Will Netherlands reach the Finals? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6621621621621621], ["2022-11-23", 0.7191011235955054], ["2022-11-23", 0.7267254188335542], ["2022-11-24", 0.59], ["2022-11-24", 0.6478706466574451], ["2022-11-24", 0.6478706466574451], ["2022-11-24", 0.6478706466574455], ["2022-11-24", 0.6478706466574455], ["2022-11-24", 0.6478706466574466], ["2022-11... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-denmark-against-australia-at-t | Resolves YES if Denmark wins against Australia in their group match on November 30. Resolves NO if Australia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will Denmark win against Australia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-23 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5561597785248171], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.996131357822236]] | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-sbf-make-another-tweet-before-c66c18dd78c | Evaluation according to Twitter account @SBF_FTX This market was created on Nov 23, 2022 12:03pm | Other | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-23 | Will SBF make another tweet before Nov 26, 2022 11:59pm ET? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.36838216507222055], ["2022-11-23", 0.4377490254701339], ["2022-11-23", 0.4524886877828055], ["2022-11-23", 0.5226648003882154], ["2022-11-23", 0.5509023198201701], ["2022-11-23", 0.6289424959392791], ["2022-11-24", 0.4], ["2022-11-24", 0.4199999999999999], ["2022-11-24", 0.42], ["2022-11-24", 0.458879... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-teams-score-a-combined-9-o | For example, England 6 + Iran 2 = 8 combined goals. Will any match top that? Nov 23, 1:15pm: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any 2022 FIFA World Cup match have 9 or more goals combined? | manifold | 0 |
2023-04-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.40983606557377056], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737707], ["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737708], ["2022-11-23", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5000000000000... | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-fifa-still-have-211-member-ass | FIFA, which stands for Fédération Internationale de Football Association, is an international governing body of association football, beach football and futsal. This market will resolve to YES if on April 1, 2023, this number is the same. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-04-01 | Will FIFA still have 211 member associations on April 1, 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6511690976193565], ["2022-11-23", 0.7063581005261065], ["2022-11-23", 0.7794636556104446], ["2022-11-24", 0.7338845861837311], ["2022-11-24", 0.7539050415466527], ["2022-11-25", 0.735127657363835], ["2022-11-30", 0.7699999999999999], ["2022-11-30", 0.7765377847283456], ["2022-11-30", 0.796582838450640... | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-player-have-more-than-3-as | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will any player have more than 3 assists in the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-30 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-23", 0.6923076923076924], ["2022-11-23", 0.7429305912596401], ["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.8090414948154879], ["2022-11-23", 0.8109320062548427], ["2022-11-23", 0.8151571164510167], ["2022-11-23", 0.8410174880763117], ["2022-11-23", 0.86206896551724... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-argentina-win-against-poland-a | Resolves YES if Argentina wins against Poland in their group match on November 30. Resolves NO if Poland wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-30 | Will Argentina win against Poland at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-20 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.3378378378378379], ["2022-11-23", 0.4553134726545132], ["2022-11-23", 0.5250088813485148], ["2022-11-23", 0.5538965768390387], ["2022-11-23", 0.6065781719013222], ["2022-11-23", 0.6065781719013222], ["2022-11-23", 0.6065781719013222], ["2022-11-23", 0.633343310386112], ["2022-11-23", 0.646633080219513... | https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-google-announce-layoffs-of-5-g-2edc23dbe2f0 | This market will resolve positively if an official email or announcement from Sundar Pichai or an official Google representative explicitly announces either X% layoffs where X>=5, or X layoffs where X(/#Google employees) >= 0.05. The last public data I'm aware of set the number of Google employees around 160,000, so we... | Economics & Business | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-20 | Will Google announce layoffs of >5% Google employees by EOY 2023? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.36], ["2022-11-23", 0.3999999999999994], ["2022-11-23", 0.3999999999999994], ["2022-11-23", 0.3999999999999997], ["2022-11-23", 0.39999999999999997], ["2022-11-23", 0.4000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.4000000000000004], ["2022-11-23", 0.40650278154161706], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-belgium-against-croatia-at-the | Resolves YES if Belgium wins against Croatia in their group match on December 1. Resolves NO if Croatia wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Belgium win against Croatia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-09 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-11-23", 0.5163890381515316], ["2022-11-23", 0.5974778535812748], ["2022-11-23", 0.6387694399895906], ["2022-11-25", 0.6700000000000002], ["2022-11-25", 0.6820328614992699], ["2022-11-25", 0.7000000000000001], ["2022-11-25", 0.7107334504950625], ["2022-11-28", 0.77591376599748... | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-more-than-2-world-cup-matches | Will >2 matches during the elimination round at the Qatar World Cup be decided by penalty kicks due to a tie at the end of regulation and overtime. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-09 | Will more than 2 World Cup matches be decided by penalty kicks? | manifold | 1 |
2023-01-07 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2022-12-21", 0.35697060659699203], ["2023-01-07", 0.04371975129901039], ["2023-01-07", 0.04440452802537367], ["2023-01-07", 0.07], ["2023-01-07", 0.07], ["2023-01-07", 0.07], ["2023-01-07", 0.07000000000000003], ["2023-01-07", 0.07584648047449305], ["2023-01-07", 0.111674537700806... | https://manifold.markets/cy/will-player5s-breath-of-the-wild-an | Resolves to YES if the 23m 53s run is beaten (not tied) by any new run, including a new run by Player5. The source of truth will be Will resolve this 1 week after the new year to allow for upload time. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2023-01-07 | Will Player5's Breath of the Wild Any% speedrun (23m 53s) be beaten this year? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.3349480968858131], ["2022-11-23", 0.45280827221792014], ["2022-11-23", 0.45280827221792186], ["2022-11-23", 0.45280827221792186], ["2022-11-23", 0.45280827221792264], ["2022-11-23", 0.45280827221792264], ["2022-11-23", 0.4588311858964567], ["2022-11-23", 0.5475113122171945], ["2022-11-24", 0.443856474... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-portugal-win-against-uruguay-a | Resolves YES if Portugal wins against Uruguay in their group match on November 28. Resolves NO if Uruguay wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Portugal win against Uruguay at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.4799999999999996], ["2022-11-23", 0.4799999999999996], ["2022-11-23", 0.48], ["2022-11-23", 0.48000000000000026], ["2022-11-23", 0.48000000000000026], ["2022-11-23", 0.48578106885662464], ["2022-11-23", 0.5203911295430127], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-serbia-win-against-cameroon-at | Resolves YES if Serbia wins against Cameroon in their group match on November 28. Resolves NO if Cameroon wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Serbia win against Cameroon at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.7830802603036877], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.81], ["2022-11-23", 0.8100000000000013], ["2022-11-23", 0.8100000000000013], [... | https://manifold.markets/NeonNuke/will-netherlands-win-against-qatar | Resolves YES if the Netherlands wins against Qatar in their group match on November 29. Resolves NO if Qatar wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | Will Netherlands win against Qatar at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5745467343786775], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.6231724329795459], ["2022-11-23", 0.6314084365474599], ["2022-11-23", 0.6314084365474599], ["2022-11-23", 0.6314084365474602], ["2022-11-23", 0.6314084365474608], ["2022-11-23", 0.6314084365474608], ["2022-11-23", 0.63783281967113... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-brazil-win-against-switzerland-a6cdec4e860f | Resolves YES if Brazil wins against Switzerland in their group match on November 28. Resolves NO if Switzerland wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Brazil win against Switzerland at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-11-29 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.3717472118959108], ["2022-11-23", 0.41], ["2022-11-23", 0.41000000000000053], ["2022-11-23", 0.41000000000000075], ["2022-11-23", 0.41000000000000075], ["2022... | https://manifold.markets/NeonNuke/will-ecuador-win-against-senegal-at | Resolves YES if Ecuador wins against Senegal in their group match on November 29. Resolves NO if Senegal wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-29 | Will Ecuador win against Senegal at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-02 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.4071159973176014], ["2022-11-23", 0.47], ["2022-11-23", 0.4828600345553449], ["2022-11-23", 0.5000000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5069822976982379], ["2022-11-23", 0.5300000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5381981348675681], ["2022-11-23", 0.5400000000000001], ["2022-11-23", 0.5450685340985023], ["2022-11... | https://manifold.markets/cece/will-brazil-win-out-in-the-group-st | Brazil is heavily favored to individually win each of their games in the group stage, but the odds they win all their games collectively is close to 33%, per Google (or whatever betting odds site they use). Resolves as expected. Brazil must | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-02 | Will Brazil win out in the group stage? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.6202292462829787], ["2022-11-23", 0.666423271302015], ["2022-11-23", 0.666423271302015], ["2022-11-23", 0.6664232713020156], ["2022-11-23", 0.6664232713020156], ["2022-11-23", 0.6664232713020156], ["2022-11-23", 0.669277946439097], ["2022-11-23", 0.74293059125964], ... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-spain-win-against-japan-at-the | Resolves YES if Spain wins against Japan in their group match on December 1. Resolves NO if Japan wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Spain win against Japan at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 0 |
2022-12-01 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-23", 0.7422885676836455], ["2022-11-23", 0.7641509433962264], ["2022-11-23", 0.7660415294786022], ["2022-11-23", 0.7699999999999992], ["2022-11-23", 0.7699999999999992], ["2022-11-23", 0.7699999999999997], ["2022-11-23", 0.77], ["2022-11-23", 0.77], ["2022-11-23", 0.771120... | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-germany-win-against-costa-rica | Resolves YES if Germany wins against Costa Rica in their group match on December 1. Resolves NO if Costa Rica wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-01 | Will Germany win against Costa Rica at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
2022-12-18 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.45999250506598544], ["2022-11-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2022-11-23", 0.601449133288972], ["2022-11-23", 0.618104082253765], ["2022-11-23", 0.6669433246383685], ["2022-11-23", 0.6923076923076923], ["2022-11-23", 0.7167071662393594], ["2022-11-24", 0.43860251214791485], ["2022-11-24", 0.45], ["2022-11... | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-the-winner-of-the-world-cup-co-a93cfbfdbc24 | Resolves YES if any of these countries wins: | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-12-18 | Will the winner of the world cup come from Europe? | manifold | 0 |
2022-11-28 | 2022-11-23 | [] | BINARY | [["2022-11-23", 0.6282527881040891], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100793], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100793], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100798], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100798], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100804], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100804], ["2022-11-23", 0.6702441820100805], ["2022-11-23", 0.67024418201008... | https://manifold.markets/NeonNuke/will-brazil-win-against-switzerland | Resolves YES if Brazil wins against Switzerland in their group match on November 28. Resolves NO if Switzerland wins the match or the match ends in a tie. | Sports | Not applicable/available for this question. | true | 2022-11-28 | Will Brazil win against Switzerland at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | manifold | 1 |
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