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True | 2020-06-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1639 |
<p>Tensions have flared along the disputed border between India and China, with violent clashes reported in early May (<a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-delhi-will-make-no-compromises-on-national-security-mea-on-china-border-row/story-zZnQIblG6zQbAqha1iRnZJ.html" target="_blank">Hindustan Tim... | 2020-06-16 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020? | 2020-05-29 | [["2020-05-29", 0.13], ["2020-05-29", 0.065], ["2020-05-29", 0.565], ["2020-05-29", 0.9], ["2020-05-29", 0.515], ["2020-05-29", 0.9], ["2020-05-29", 0.515], ["2020-05-29", 0.2], ["2020-05-29", 0.165], ["2020-05-29", 0.2], ["2020-05-29", 0.225], ["2020-05-29", 0.35], ["2020-05-29", 0.225], ["2020-05-29", 0.21], ["2020-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-05-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2301 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FB" target="_blank">CNBC</a>). The threshold would not be changed in the event of a stock split (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>).</p><p></p><p></p>... | 2022-05-20 | Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) close above $238.00 per share? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 0.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.08], ["2022-03-15", 0.105], ["2022-03-15", 0.095], ["2022-03-15", 0.06], ["2022-03-15", 0.095], ["2022-03-16", 0.06], ["2022-03-16", 0.13], ["2022-03-16", 0.115], ["2022-03-16", 0.13], ["2022-03-16", 0.13], ["2022-03-16", 0.115], ["2022-03-16", 0.13], ["2022-03-16", 0.115], ["2022... | ["https://volafy.net/equity/FB", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1435611", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1422993", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/25/digital-markets-act-eu-targets-big-tech-with-sweeping-new-antitrust-rules.html", "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/141635... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-06-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2228 |
<p>Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/an-uptick-in-corporate-defaults-is-unlikely" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.marketwatch.co... | 2022-06-17 | Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022? | 2021-12-17 | [["2021-12-17", 0.305], ["2021-12-17", 0.44], ["2021-12-18", 0.375], ["2021-12-18", 0.285], ["2021-12-18", 0.36], ["2021-12-18", 0.36], ["2021-12-19", 0.36], ["2021-12-19", 0.35], ["2021-12-19", 0.35], ["2021-12-19", 0.35], ["2021-12-19", 0.35], ["2021-12-19", 0.35], ["2021-12-20", 0.35], ["2021-12-20", 0.35], ["2021-1... | ["https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32457", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KCFSI", "https://indices.theice.com/", "https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/zombification-economy", "https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/9/23063499/uber-ceo-slash-costs-hiring-slowdown-ride-hailing-profit", "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ser... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2741 |
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, but the Emirates airline has recovered thus far in its current fiscal year (FY) (<a href="https://www.theemiratesgroup.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-record-half-year-performance-for-2022-23/" target="_blank">Emirates Group</a>, <a href="https://... | 2023-05-11 | Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2022-23 reach or exceed the total revenue from FY 2018-19 of AED 97,907 million? | 2023-02-02 | [["2023-02-02", 0.99], ["2023-02-03", 0.995], ["2023-02-03", 0.9967], ["2023-02-03", 0.9975], ["2023-02-03", 0.996], ["2023-02-03", 0.98], ["2023-02-03", 0.9757], ["2023-02-04", 0.9663], ["2023-02-04", 0.9688], ["2023-02-05", 0.95], ["2023-02-06", 0.9511], ["2023-02-07", 0.9589], ["2023-02-09", 0.962], ["2023-02-26", 0... | ["https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/dubais-emirates-to-post-strong-profit-as-passenger-demand-surges-says-top-official-1.93228241", "https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-group-announces-record-half-year-performance-for-2022-23/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-07-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975 |
<p>After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.the... | 2021-07-20 | Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021? | 2021-04-01 | [["2021-04-02", 1.0], ["2021-04-02", 0.8], ["2021-04-02", 0.6], ["2021-04-02", 0.75], ["2021-04-02", 0.85], ["2021-04-02", 0.8], ["2021-04-02", 0.85], ["2021-04-02", 0.875], ["2021-04-03", 0.9], ["2021-04-03", 0.875], ["2021-04-03", 0.85], ["2021-04-03", 0.875], ["2021-04-03", 0.85], ["2021-04-03", 0.8], ["2021-04-03",... | ["https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flughafen_Berlin_Brandenburg#Bauskandal", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/", "https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/", "https://berlin.premiumkino.de/", "http://www.hrnww.com/blog/2021/06/15/berlins-humboldt-forum-museum-to-open-to-the-public-on-july-20/", "https://www.regioactive.de/party/end... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-03-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2547 |
<p>As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/leader-belarusian-warplanes-made-ready-carry-nukes-88894273" target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/wor... | 2023-03-17 | Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine? | 2022-09-16 | [["2022-09-16", 0.01], ["2022-09-16", 0.0125], ["2022-09-16", 0.0817], ["2022-09-16", 0.0788], ["2022-09-16", 0.115], ["2022-09-16", 0.1064], ["2022-09-17", 0.1008], ["2022-09-17", 0.1185], ["2022-09-17", 0.1033], ["2022-09-17", 0.0947], ["2022-09-17", 0.0853], ["2022-09-17", 0.0771], ["2022-09-17", 0.0873], ["2022-09-... | ["https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2022/08/10/935433-v-belorussii-zayavili-o-gotovnosti-sotrudnichat", "https://energetyka24.com/elektroenergetyka/wiadomosci/ukrainski-minister-energii-uspokaja-system-energetyczny-wytrzyma", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1544723", "https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2715 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW "as of" 1 March 2023 (<a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375" target="_blank">ISW</a>). For the purposes of this question, the "following major cities in Ukraine" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk,... | 2023-03-01 | Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of "Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)? | 2023-01-16 | [["2023-01-16", 0.0], ["2023-01-16", 0.05], ["2023-01-16", 0.0333], ["2023-01-17", 0.025], ["2023-01-17", 0.02], ["2023-01-17", 0.0167], ["2023-01-17", 0.0186], ["2023-01-17", 0.0288], ["2023-01-17", 0.0256], ["2023-01-17", 0.032], ["2023-01-17", 0.0336], ["2023-01-17", 0.0458], ["2023-01-17", 0.0423], ["2023-01-17", 0... | ["https://news.yahoo.com/loss-soledar-ukrainian-positions-bakhmut-091058838.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-abrams-tanks-putin-war/", "https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/25/world/russia-ukraine-news#getting-tanks-to-the-front-lines-looms-as-a-challenge-for-ukraine", "https... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910 |
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? | 2021-01-21 | [["2021-01-21", 0.05], ["2021-01-21", 0.035], ["2021-01-21", 0.05], ["2021-01-21", 0.035], ["2021-01-21", 0.025], ["2021-01-21", 0.025], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-01-21", 0.02], ["2021-01-21", 0.03], ["2021-... | ["https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2021/01/20/Israeli-Syrian-officials-discussed-Iran-and-its-militias-presence-in-Syria-Report", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1220808", "https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/biden-renews-offer-to-return-to-full-nuclear-deal-if-iran-does-the-same-7492501.html", "h... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-06-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1551 |
<p>The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17311/edition2020why-america-and-russia-should-extend-key-nuclear-deal" target="_blank... | 2020-06-23 | Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020? | 2020-03-05 | [["2020-03-06", 0.125], ["2020-03-06", 0.15], ["2020-03-06", 0.2], ["2020-03-06", 0.5], ["2020-03-07", 0.2], ["2020-03-07", 0.35], ["2020-03-07", 0.625], ["2020-03-07", 0.375], ["2020-03-07", 0.5], ["2020-03-07", 0.46], ["2020-03-07", 0.485], ["2020-03-07", 0.425], ["2020-03-07", 0.61], ["2020-03-08", 0.45], ["2020-03-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1691 |
<p>The oil & gas firm’s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CVX:US" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>). On 7 July 2020 the closing pri... | 2020-08-06 | Will the closing price of Chevron stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020? | 2020-07-08 | [["2020-07-08", 0.55], ["2020-07-08", 0.275], ["2020-07-08", 0.05], ["2020-07-08", 0.0], ["2020-07-08", 0.125], ["2020-07-08", 0.0], ["2020-07-08", 0.0], ["2020-07-08", 0.0], ["2020-07-08", 0.05], ["2020-07-08", 0.1], ["2020-07-08", 0.175], ["2020-07-08", 0.175], ["2020-07-08", 0.375], ["2020-07-08", 0.375], ["2020-07-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-06-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947 |
<p>The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again" target="_blank">Econ... | 2021-06-18 | Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? | 2021-02-23 | [["2021-02-24", 1.0], ["2021-02-24", 1.0], ["2021-02-25", 0.89], ["2021-02-25", 0.95], ["2021-02-25", 0.875], ["2021-02-25", 0.875], ["2021-02-25", 0.875], ["2021-02-25", 0.875], ["2021-02-25", 0.825], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25"... | ["https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state", "https://www.wired.com/story/hololens-mesh-microsoft-ignite-2021/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1240020", "https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/04/30/a-procl... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2175 |
<p>China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 (<a href="http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/enarticle/engcc/engccnews/200911/1638_1.html" target="_blank">China Ministry of Commerce</a>, <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/china-is-happy-about-the-abraham-accords-and-the-gcc... | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed? | 2021-10-28 | [["2021-10-29", 0.14], ["2021-10-30", 0.075], ["2021-10-30", 0.06666666666666667], ["2021-10-30", 0.1], ["2021-10-31", 0.08], ["2021-10-31", 0.23333333333333334], ["2021-10-31", 0.20285714285714285], ["2021-10-31", 0.1775], ["2021-10-31", 0.15777777777777777], ["2021-10-31", 0.149], ["2021-11-01", 0.138], ["2021-11-01"... | ["https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-01-10/Gulf-FMs-arrive-in-Beijing-in-positive-push-for-China-GCC-FTA-talks-16I4k2uMHOo/index.html", "http://www.china.org.cn/business/2022-05/13/content_78215836.htm", "https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202209/t20220921_10768898.html", "https://strategiecs.com/en/analyses/neg... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2171 |
<p>On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href=... | 2023-01-01 | Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang? | 2021-10-27 | [["2021-10-29", 0.14], ["2021-10-29", 0.105], ["2021-10-29", 0.27], ["2021-10-30", 0.205], ["2021-10-30", 0.166], ["2021-10-30", 0.14666666666666667], ["2021-10-30", 0.19857142857142857], ["2021-10-31", 0.17375], ["2021-10-31", 0.15444444444444444], ["2021-10-31", 0.139], ["2021-10-31", 0.125], ["2021-10-31", 0.127], [... | ["https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62744522", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3177699/lawmakers-pressure-eu-full-ban-trade-goods-made-forced-labour", "https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3185358/chinas-president-xi-visits-xinjiang-first-time-eight-years", "https://www.barrons.com/news... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-02-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2647 |
<p>Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump has thus far said that he has no interest in returning to Twitter (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/20/trump-snubs-twitter-after-musk-announces-reactivation-of-his-account.html" target="_blank">CNBC</... | 2023-02-26 | Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 26 February 2023? | 2022-11-24 | [["2022-11-25", 0.69], ["2022-11-25", 0.7325], ["2022-11-25", 0.6133], ["2022-11-25", 0.6975], ["2022-11-25", 0.738], ["2022-11-25", 0.7573], ["2022-11-26", 0.7277], ["2022-11-26", 0.7113], ["2022-11-26", 0.7447], ["2022-11-26", 0.7522], ["2022-11-26", 0.7495], ["2022-11-26", 0.7614], ["2022-11-26", 0.7278], ["2022-11-... | ["https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-ditch-truth-social-for-twitter-facebook-1234665307/", "https://twitter.com/Al_Drago/status/1611580635969118209?s=20&t=OZwJAf3660wfvWvyDw9ZEw", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/12/03/elon-musk-and-matt-taibbi-release-twitter-doc... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-05-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1529 |
<p>On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General declared a PHEIC regarding COVID-19 (<a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/30/who-declares-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-health-emergency/" target="_blank">Statnews</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/2020/jan/30/coronavi... | 2020-05-07 | Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) be in effect as of 6 May 2020? | 2020-02-14 | [["2020-02-14", 0.795], ["2020-02-14", 0.855], ["2020-02-14", 0.85], ["2020-02-14", 0.89], ["2020-02-14", 0.89], ["2020-02-14", 0.92], ["2020-02-14", 0.92], ["2020-02-14", 0.92], ["2020-02-14", 0.85], ["2020-02-14", 0.66], ["2020-02-14", 0.455], ["2020-02-14", 0.3], ["2020-02-14", 0.3], ["2020-02-14", 0.45], ["2020-02-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-05-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1990 |
<p>As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-european-commission-will-turn-on-the-spending-taps" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a hr... | 2021-06-15 | Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021? | 2021-04-23 | [["2021-04-23", 0.82], ["2021-04-23", 0.71], ["2021-04-23", 0.82], ["2021-04-23", 0.785], ["2021-04-23", 0.75], ["2021-04-23", 0.785], ["2021-04-23", 0.82], ["2021-04-23", 0.825], ["2021-04-24", 0.82], ["2021-04-24", 0.785], ["2021-04-24", 0.82], ["2021-04-24", 0.785], ["2021-04-24", 0.75], ["2021-04-24", 0.735], ["202... | ["https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/coalition-eyes-900m-from-eu-recovery-and-resilience-covid-fund-1.4554501", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1272107", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/austria-blumel-is-convinced-eu-recovery-funds-will-go-ahead.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1281892", "https://www.fun... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-06-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2234 |
<p>Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/cyril-ramaphosa-says-the-world-must-end-vaccine-apartheid" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-04/a-year-... | 2022-06-17 | Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology? | 2021-12-30 | [["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.04], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-30", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.0], ["2021-12-31", 0.03], ["2021-12-31", 0.06], ["2021-12-31", 0.08], ["2021-12-31", 0.06], ["2021-12-31", 0.07], ["2021-12-31", 0.06], ["2021-12-31", 0.0... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/61-the-economist-the-world-ahead", "https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n281#:~:text=The%20Oxford%2DAstraZeneca%20vaccine%20is,%244%2C%20respectively%2C%20per%20dose", "https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/WT/MIN22/W15.pdf&Open=True", "https://www.franc... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-05-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2764 |
<p>Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 (Section 230), which was added as part of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, "provides limited federal immunity to providers and users of interactive computer services" (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46751" target="_blank">Congression... | 2023-05-18 | In Gonzalez v. Google LLC, will the Supreme Court rule that Section 230 does not bar the plaintiff's non-revenue sharing claims against Google? | 2023-02-17 | [["2023-02-17", 0.0], ["2023-02-17", 0.18], ["2023-02-17", 0.12], ["2023-02-18", 0.34], ["2023-02-18", 0.442], ["2023-02-18", 0.3683], ["2023-02-18", 0.4529], ["2023-02-18", 0.4963], ["2023-02-18", 0.4722], ["2023-02-18", 0.4878], ["2023-02-18", 0.4633], ["2023-02-18", 0.442], ["2023-02-18", 0.444], ["2023-02-19", 0.40... | ["https://www.pacificresearch.org/supreme-court-hands-9th-circuit-highest-year-of-reversals-since-1985/", "https://thefederalist.com/?s=section+230", "https://www.lawfareblog.com/oral-argument-preview-gonzalez-et-al-v-google-and-twitter-inc-v-taamneh-et-al", "https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-news/supreme-court-gon... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2151 |
<p>Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-misinformation-public-60-minutes-2021-10-03/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="ht... | 2022-10-02 | Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO? | 2021-10-07 | [["2021-10-07", 0.525], ["2021-10-07", 0.42], ["2021-10-07", 0.455], ["2021-10-07", 0.35375], ["2021-10-07", 0.285], ["2021-10-07", 0.242], ["2021-10-08", 0.153], ["2021-10-08", 0.073], ["2021-10-08", 0.065], ["2021-10-08", 0.086], ["2021-10-08", 0.066], ["2021-10-08", 0.056], ["2021-10-08", 0.032], ["2021-10-09", 0.03... | ["https://www.barrons.com/articles/mark-zuckerberg-economic-warning-meta-employees-51656857529", "https://techstory.in/frances-haugen-says-meta-cant-recover-until-mark-zuckerberg-steps-down/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/meta-coo-sandberg-reportedly-tried-to-block-news-story-about-activision-ceo-kotick.html", "htt... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-11-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2576 |
<p>The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, though its maiden flight has seen delays (<a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-i/" target="_blank">NASA - Artemis I</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/artemis-1-moon-rocket-launch-delay-september-27" target="_blank">Space.com</... | 2022-11-16 | Will NASA's Artemis 1 mission be launched successfully before 1 January 2023? | 2022-10-07 | [["2022-10-07", 0.03], ["2022-10-07", 0.265], ["2022-10-07", 0.2767], ["2022-10-07", 0.3825], ["2022-10-07", 0.366], ["2022-10-07", 0.415], ["2022-10-07", 0.4167], ["2022-10-07", 0.4557], ["2022-10-07", 0.4838], ["2022-10-07", 0.4411], ["2022-10-07", 0.462], ["2022-10-07", 0.4382], ["2022-10-08", 0.4683], ["2022-10-08"... | ["https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAQQw7AJahcKEwjwpa_u2dv6AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fzenodo.org%2Frecord%2F1263978%2Ffiles%2Farticle.pdf&psig=AOvVaw32iLfVq8AXLEUA-u50HexI&ust=1665698837316844", "https://www.space.co... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2355 |
<p>Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/europe/ukraine-donbas-battle-russia-cmd-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-eastern-ukraine-offensive-donbas-ne... | 2022-11-25 | Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022? | 2022-04-13 | [["2022-04-15", 0.025], ["2022-04-15", 0.1], ["2022-04-15", 0.08166666666666667], ["2022-04-15", 0.06625], ["2022-04-15", 0.065], ["2022-04-15", 0.075], ["2022-04-16", 0.065], ["2022-04-16", 0.086], ["2022-04-16", 0.165], ["2022-04-16", 0.156], ["2022-04-16", 0.244], ["2022-04-16", 0.223], ["2022-04-17", 0.238], ["2022... | ["https://discover.lanl.gov/publications/national-security-science/2021-winter/pit-production-explained", "https://voxeurop.eu/en/ukrainian-kutuzov-general-zaluzhny-why-are-his-tactics-spotlight/", "https://lite.cnn.com/en/article/h_ec768fb70e8c8d6e114c02d73ffb2ea7", "https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-the-nunn-l... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-09 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2018 |
<p>Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (<a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31359453/aaron-rodgers-want-return-green-bay-packers-sources-say" target="_blank">ESPN</a>, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-landing-spots-six-teams-that-m... | 2021-09-09 | Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021? | 2021-05-27 | [["2021-05-28", 1.0], ["2021-05-28", 1.0], ["2021-05-29", 1.0], ["2021-05-29", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.985], ["2021-05-30", 1.0], ["2021-05-30", 0.985], ["2021-05-30", 0.97], ["2021-05-30", 0.96], ["2021-06-01", 0.725], ["2021-06-01", 0.45], ["2021-06-01", 0.37], ["2021-06-02", 0.37], ["2021-06-02",... | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1-jDnk5hZU", "https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/aaron-rodgers-renews-his-membership-at-the-green-bay-country-club/ar-AALdw8j", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ", "https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-reportedly-agree-to-trade-for-randall-cobb-fulfilling-aaron-rodg... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2138 |
<p>Shams Dubai is the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority's (DEWA’s) first smart initiative to connect solar energy to buildings, a part of the Distributed Renewable Resources Generation program (<a href="https://www.dewa.gov.ae/en/consumer/solar-community/shams-dubai" target="_blank">Shams Dubai</a>). The qu... | 2022-08-16 | As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW? | 2021-09-30 | [["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.55], ["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.645], ["2021-09-30", 0.29], ["2021-09-30", 0.645], ["2021-09-30", 0.29], ["2021-10-01", 0.29], ["2021-10-01", 0.2], ["2021-10-01", 0.29], ["2021-10-02", 0.215], ["2021-10-02", 0.215], ["2021-10-03", 0.15], ["2021-10-03", 0.145], ["2021-10... | ["https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2021/11/an-update-on-wro-enforcement-on-imported-solar-panels/", "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-restricts-exports-5-chinese-firms-over-rights-violations-2021-06-23/", "https://wam.ae/en/details/1395302957976", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/china-slashe... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1492 |
<p>Negotiations between the United States and North Korea during 2019 were inconclusive, and there are efforts to restart them in 2020 (<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/11/asia/north-korea-trump-letter-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-kim-jong-un-nort... | 2021-01-01 | Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 January 2021? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-18", 0.15], ["2020-01-18", 0.15], ["2020-01-18", 0.135], ["2020-01-19", 0.15], ["2020-01-19", 0.225], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.2], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", 0.05], ["2020-01-19", 0.125], ["2020-01-19", 0.1], ["2020-01-19", ... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/09/north-korea-says-south-may-pay-dearly-for-doubting-its-claim-to-be-covid-free"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2925 |
<p>SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-outlines-major-upgrades-before-next-launch-of-super-heavy-rocket/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-25-engine-test-photo" target="_blank">... | 2023-10-15 | Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023? | 2023-06-30 | [["2023-06-30", 0.67], ["2023-06-30", 0.635], ["2023-06-30", 0.6233], ["2023-06-30", 0.635], ["2023-06-30", 0.628], ["2023-06-30", 0.69], ["2023-06-30", 0.6771], ["2023-06-30", 0.67], ["2023-07-01", 0.6322], ["2023-07-01", 0.6356], ["2023-07-01", 0.672], ["2023-07-01", 0.7018], ["2023-07-01", 0.7058], ["2023-07-01", 0.... | ["https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230518-what-are-the-odds-of-a-successful-space-launch", "https://twitter.com/FelixSchlang/status/1704890443798872381?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704890443798872381%7Ctwgr%5Ecc250848c964342cc0c4d11dfd3836f3f58ea50a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fw... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2036 | <p>The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (<a href="https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/" target="_blank">Olympics</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target... | 2021-08-08 | Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China? | 2021-06-11 | [["2021-06-11", 0.0], ["2021-06-11", 0.225], ["2021-06-11", 0.45], ["2021-06-11", 0.35], ["2021-06-11", 0.25], ["2021-06-11", 0.145], ["2021-06-11", 0.04], ["2021-06-11", 0.02], ["2021-06-11", 0.0], ["2021-06-11", 0.02], ["2021-06-11", 0.04], ["2021-06-11", 0.04], ["2021-06-12", 0.045], ["2021-06-12", 0.045], ["2021-06... | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Summer_Olympics_medal_table", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1312995", "https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_en_los_Juegos_Ol%C3%ADmpicos", "https://www.skysports.com/olympics/news/15234/10548015/analysing-the-reasons-behind-team-gbs-success-at-rio-olympics-2016", "https://www.in... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1499 |
<p>Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/subjects/hong-kong-protests" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). Reports indicate that China's central government could mobilize PLA and/or PAP troops in Hong Kong (<a href="https://www.... | 2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People’s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong? | 2020-01-21 | [["2020-01-24", 0.45], ["2020-01-25", 0.325], ["2020-01-25", 0.3], ["2020-01-25", 0.2], ["2020-01-25", 0.2], ["2020-01-25", 0.145], ["2020-01-26", 0.145], ["2020-01-26", 0.15], ["2020-01-26", 0.15], ["2020-01-26", 0.15], ["2020-01-26", 0.15], ["2020-01-26", 0.15], ["2020-01-26", 0.16], ["2020-01-27", 0.135], ["2020-01-... | ["http://www.iberchina.org/files/2017/china_2021_chatham.pdf", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/hongkong-mask-ban-ruling/2020/12/20/f2722af0-4340-11eb-a277-49a6d1f9dff1_story.html", "https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3113637/hong-kong-protests-construction-worker-gets-40-months", "https://w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2073 |
<p>As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/taliban-says-it-controls-85-of-afghanistan" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a>, <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/bid... | 2021-08-15 | Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022? | 2021-07-16 | [["2021-07-16", 0.1], ["2021-07-16", 0.55], ["2021-07-16", 1.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.55], ["2021-07-16", 0.9], ["2021-07-16", 0.55], ["2021-07-16", 0.75], ["2021-07-16", 0.85], ["2021-07-16", 0.6], ["2021-07-16", 0.35], ["2021-07-16", 0.35], ["2021-07-16", 0.35], ["2021-07-17", 0.35], ["2021-07-17", 0.35], ["2021-07-17", ... | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-58219963", "https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/afghan-president-ashraf-ghani-to-step-down-interim-taliban-govt-to-take-over-reports", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/aug/15/afghanistan-taliban-close-in-on-kabul-as-last-government-stronghold-in-north-falls", "... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2532 |
<p>The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies fell from highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they remain elevated (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/fao-food-price-index-fell-sharply-in-july-but-the-respite-may-not-last.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, <a ... | 2022-11-04 | Will the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for October 2022 be higher than it was for September 2022? | 2022-09-01 | [["2022-09-12", 0.0], ["2022-09-12", 0.5], ["2022-09-12", 0.6333], ["2022-09-12", 0.625], ["2022-09-12", 0.64], ["2022-09-12", 0.5333], ["2022-09-12", 0.5417], ["2022-09-12", 0.6071], ["2022-09-12", 0.5725], ["2022-09-12", 0.5811], ["2022-09-12", 0.568], ["2022-09-13", 0.5618], ["2022-09-13", 0.5983], ["2022-09-13", 0.... | ["https://www.asian-agribiz.com/2022/10/12/fao-reduces-global-cereal-production-outlook/", "https://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=barley&graph=exports", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1527321", "https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2022/10/10/fao-food-price-index-drops-for-the-sixth-consecutive-month/",... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2091 |
<p>The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57923655" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/02/politics/menendez-nord-stream-2-joint-statement... | 2022-01-02 | Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany? | 2021-08-06 | [["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-06", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-07", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 1.0], ["2021-08-08", 0.995], ["2021-08-08", 0.99], ["2021-08-08", 0.99], ... | ["https://www.faz.net/aktuell/bundesnetzagentur-setzt-zertifizierung-fuer-nord-stream-2-vorerst-aus-17636752.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1345918", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1348159", "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-regulator-says-touch-with-nord-stream-2-over-certification-issues-2021... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2861 |
<p>While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/europe/belarus-ukraine-troops-russia-border-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commenta... | 2023-10-21 | Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023? | 2023-04-21 | [["2023-04-21", 0.12], ["2023-04-21", 0.06], ["2023-04-21", 0.04], ["2023-04-21", 0.0425], ["2023-04-21", 0.062], ["2023-04-21", 0.0517], ["2023-04-21", 0.0443], ["2023-04-21", 0.0463], ["2023-04-21", 0.0433], ["2023-04-21", 0.044], ["2023-04-22", 0.0491], ["2023-04-22", 0.045], ["2023-04-22", 0.0415], ["2023-04-22", 0... | ["https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672536930725117952", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-21-2023", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2023", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treat... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-07-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1595 |
<p>Under Russia's current constitution, President Vladimir Putin is required to step down in 2024 (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/vladimir-putin-amendment-power-russia-2024" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). A national vote on constitutional changes that, among other things, would allow him t... | 2020-07-07 | Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term? | 2020-04-17 | [["2020-04-17", 0.87], ["2020-04-17", 0.75], ["2020-04-17", 0.75], ["2020-04-17", 0.775], ["2020-04-17", 0.8], ["2020-04-17", 0.8], ["2020-04-17", 0.8], ["2020-04-17", 0.825], ["2020-04-17", 0.825], ["2020-04-18", 0.455], ["2020-04-18", 0.455], ["2020-04-18", 0.63], ["2020-04-18", 0.75], ["2020-04-18", 0.725], ["2020-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-11-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2878 |
<p>The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-04/tunisia-facing-unprecedented-migration-crisis-as-bodies-wash-ashore" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="https://thesoufancenter.org/intel... | 2023-11-13 | Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia? | 2023-05-11 | [["2023-05-11", 0.08], ["2023-05-11", 0.2], ["2023-05-11", 0.1333], ["2023-05-11", 0.1], ["2023-05-12", 0.09], ["2023-05-12", 0.225], ["2023-05-12", 0.2283], ["2023-05-12", 0.2429], ["2023-05-13", 0.2125], ["2023-05-13", 0.2], ["2023-05-13", 0.195], ["2023-05-13", 0.1882], ["2023-05-14", 0.1864], ["2023-05-15", 0.193],... | ["http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/05/21/tunisia.un/index.html", "https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/current-situation-tunisia", "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/05/09/tunisia-s-fresh-water-reserves-are-dwindling-and-leading-to-rationing_6025965_124.html", "https://english.alarabiya.ne... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1511 |
<p>The United Kingdom exited the European Union on 31 January 2020. The Withdrawal Agreement transition period ends on 31 December 2020, though there is provision for a possible extension (<a href="https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-21054-2019-INIT/en/pdf" target="_blank">Europa</a>). If... | 2021-01-04 | Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union request the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a European Union-United Kingdom trade agreement? | 2020-01-31 | [["2020-02-01", 0.5], ["2020-02-01", 0.61], ["2020-02-02", 0.45], ["2020-02-02", 0.315], ["2020-02-02", 0.28], ["2020-02-02", 0.33], ["2020-02-03", 0.3], ["2020-02-03", 0.275], ["2020-02-04", 0.26], ["2020-02-04", 0.25], ["2020-02-05", 0.25], ["2020-02-06", 0.425], ["2020-02-07", 0.5], ["2020-02-07", 0.6], ["2020-02-08... | ["https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RULES-9-2019-07-02-RULE-211_EN.html", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RULES-9-2019-07-02-RULE-057_EN.html", "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/RULES-9-2019-07-02_EN.pdf", "https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf", "htt... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2278 |
<p>On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent states, triggering international condemnation (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60470900" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/10821... | 2022-08-01 | Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022? | 2022-02-24 | [["2022-02-24", 0.99], ["2022-02-24", 0.9], ["2022-02-24", 0.76], ["2022-02-24", 0.55], ["2022-02-24", 0.6], ["2022-02-24", 0.575], ["2022-02-24", 0.6], ["2022-02-24", 0.575], ["2022-02-24", 0.55], ["2022-02-24", 0.575], ["2022-02-24", 0.61], ["2022-02-25", 0.62], ["2022-02-25", 0.62], ["2022-02-25", 0.61], ["2022-02-2... | ["https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-news-live-putin-looting-steel-bound-for-uk-major-deal-to-relieve-food-crisis-to-be-signed-russian-forces-increasing-missile-use-12541713?postid=4197834#liveblog-body", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Transnistria_attacks#Posterior_attacks", "https://tv8.md/ru/2022/28/07/medvedev... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-03-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2243 |
<p>While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/what-do-we-know-about-north-koreas-missiles/a-60360966" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>, <a href="https://www.38north.org/2022/01/ano... | 2022-03-30 | Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km? | 2022-01-14 | [["2022-01-14", 0.6], ["2022-01-14", 0.55], ["2022-01-14", 0.58], ["2022-01-14", 0.54], ["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.45], ["2022-01-14", 0.4], ["2022-01-14", 0.5], ["2022-01-14", 0.45], ["2022-01-15", 0.4], ["2022-01-15", 0.36], ["2022-01-15", 0.32], ["2022-01-15", 0.3... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868 |
<p>In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (<a href="https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html... | 2022-01-03 | Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? | 2020-12-16 | [["2020-12-16", 0.0], ["2020-12-16", 0.0], ["2020-12-16", 0.0], ["2020-12-16", 0.19], ["2020-12-16", 0.25], ["2020-12-16", 0.33], ["2020-12-16", 0.33], ["2020-12-16", 0.25], ["2020-12-16", 0.33], ["2020-12-17", 0.3], ["2020-12-17", 0.3], ["2020-12-17", 0.25], ["2020-12-18", 0.3], ["2020-12-18", 0.3], ["2020-12-18", 0.3... | ["https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_001968.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1202538", "https://www.eastoregonian.com/news/nation_world/with-no-summit-south-korean-president-to-skip-olympics/article_77148da5-528b-5891-969b-13f9cbbd7f5e.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1248791", "https://english.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2584 |
<p>In October 2022, the Kurdistan Parliament extended its current term because political parties in the regional party could not come to an agreement on holding elections in 2022 as planned (<a href="https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/29673-Kurdistan-Parliament-extends-its-legislative-term-by-a-year:-Speaker" t... | 2024-01-01 | Will elections for the Kurdistan Parliament be held in 2023? | 2022-10-13 | [["2022-10-14", 0.6], ["2022-10-14", 0.65], ["2022-10-14", 0.6867], ["2022-10-14", 0.72], ["2022-10-14", 0.59], ["2022-10-15", 0.5925], ["2022-10-15", 0.578], ["2022-10-15", 0.545], ["2022-10-15", 0.54], ["2022-10-16", 0.585], ["2022-10-16", 0.5978], ["2022-10-16", 0.588], ["2022-10-16", 0.5345], ["2022-10-17", 0.5475]... | ["https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/02052023", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/090720232", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/16062023", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/070320231", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/080420233", "https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/071220232", "ht... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2605 |
<p>As of the launch of this question, it is generally believed that no fewer than nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons (<a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat" target="_blank">Arms Control Association</a>, <a href="https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-w... | 2024-01-01 | Before 1 January 2024, will a nuclear device be detonated somewhere in the world? | 2022-10-27 | [["2022-10-28", 0.3833], ["2022-10-28", 0.5417], ["2022-10-28", 0.61], ["2022-10-28", 0.6755], ["2022-10-28", 0.645], ["2022-10-28", 0.6225], ["2022-10-29", 0.6621], ["2022-10-29", 0.6627], ["2022-10-29", 0.6083], ["2022-10-29", 0.6096], ["2022-10-29", 0.6362], ["2022-10-30", 0.6453], ["2022-10-30", 0.6359], ["2022-10-... | ["https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/09/103_359686.html", "https://www.memri.org/reports/irans-illicit-procurement-related-weapons-mass-destruction-netherlands-sweden-and-germany#_edn6", "https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/16825", "https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/s-korea-us-monitoring-possible-halt-i... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-02-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899 |
<p>Russia and the U.S. signed the current "New START" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country (<a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/16/putin-proposes-one-year-extension-of-new-start-treaty-a71780" target="_blank">Moscow Times</a>). The treaty i... | 2021-02-03 | Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021? | 2021-01-08 | [["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.0], ["2021-01-08", 0.33], ["2021-01-08", 0.66], ["2021-01-08", 0.725], ["2021-01-08", 0.79], ["2021-01-08", 0.745], ["2021-01-08", 0.79], ["2021-01-08", 0.82], ["2021-01-08", 0.885], ["2021-01-09", 0.82], ["2021-01-09", 0.81], ["2021-01-09", 0.8], ["2021-01-09... | ["https://twitter.com/pranayrvaddi/status/1354092436264542208", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-nuclear/biden-seeks-five-year-extension-of-new-start-arms-treaty-with-russia-idUSKBN29Q2I4", "https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/01/31/putin-signs-extension-of-last-russia-us-nuclear-arms-tr... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-12-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936 |
<p>Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (<a href="https://www.federalregi... | 2021-12-15 | Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? | 2021-02-12 | [["2021-02-12", 0.25], ["2021-02-12", 0.4], ["2021-02-12", 0.55], ["2021-02-12", 0.555], ["2021-02-12", 0.55], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.555], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.655], ["2021-02-12", 0.56], ["2021-02-12", 0.655], ["2021-02-13", 0.75], ["2021-02-13", 0.655], ["2021-... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "https://ballotpedia.org/Confirmation_process_for_Katherine_Tai_for_U.S._trade_representative", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJ7apo19fDM", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2713 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CBRT (<a href="https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo" target="_blank">CBRT</a>).</p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge hav... | 2023-03-01 | On 1 March 2023, will the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) 1-week repo interest rate be below 10.5%? | 2023-01-16 | [["2023-01-17", 0.78], ["2023-01-17", 0.79], ["2023-01-17", 0.81], ["2023-01-17", 0.8525], ["2023-01-17", 0.882], ["2023-01-17", 0.885], ["2023-01-17", 0.9014], ["2023-01-17", 0.9138], ["2023-01-17", 0.8122], ["2023-01-17", 0.824], ["2023-01-17", 0.8264], ["2023-01-17", 0.8242], ["2023-01-17", 0.8317], ["2023-01-17", 0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-09-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2920 |
<p>In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/05/30/1178961618/north-korea-rocket-launch-military-satellite-south-korea" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-spy-satellite-ruling-party-c9f16... | 2023-09-23 | Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023? | 2023-06-23 | [["2023-06-23", 0.09], ["2023-06-23", 0.05], ["2023-06-23", 0.04], ["2023-06-23", 0.025], ["2023-06-23", 0.02], ["2023-06-23", 0.1025], ["2023-06-23", 0.142], ["2023-06-23", 0.1183], ["2023-06-24", 0.1014], ["2023-06-24", 0.095], ["2023-06-24", 0.19], ["2023-06-24", 0.171], ["2023-06-24", 0.1645], ["2023-06-24", 0.1618... | ["https://m.khan.co.kr/politics/north-korea/article/202306122056005", "https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230809006400325", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unha", "https://www.bolnews.com/international/2023/08/north-korea-to-launch-satellites-into-space-soon/", "https://thehill.com/policy/international/4157277-north-korea... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-08-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2909 |
<p>Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-06-05/us-west-coast-labor-unrest-continues-amid-sparring-over-pay... | 2023-09-01 | Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023? | 2023-06-09 | [["2023-06-09", 0.85], ["2023-06-09", 0.93], ["2023-06-10", 0.965], ["2023-06-10", 0.6433], ["2023-06-11", 0.7325], ["2023-06-11", 0.716], ["2023-06-12", 0.7633], ["2023-06-12", 0.7743], ["2023-06-12", 0.74], ["2023-06-13", 0.7422], ["2023-06-13", 0.7533], ["2023-06-14", 0.7611], ["2023-06-14", 0.7633], ["2023-06-14", ... | ["https://www.ilwu63.net/50922-2/", "https://www.ilwu.org/coast-longshore-division-caucus-unanimously-votes-to-send-tentative-agreement-to-membership/", "https://www.ilwu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DispatcherAPR2015lores-1.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/west-coast-port-deal-with-ilwu-will-take-months-to-be-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (<a href="https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex" target="_blank">SIPRI</a>, see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are fir... | 2022-04-25 | Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? | 2021-02-26 | [["2021-02-26", 1.0], ["2021-02-26", 0.995], ["2021-02-26", 0.99], ["2021-02-26", 0.945], ["2021-02-26", 0.99], ["2021-02-26", 0.945], ["2021-02-26", 0.9], ["2021-02-26", 0.945], ["2021-02-27", 0.9], ["2021-02-27", 0.9], ["2021-02-27", 0.9], ["2021-02-27", 0.925], ["2021-02-27", 0.9], ["2021-02-27", 0.9], ["2021-02-27"... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-08-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2758 |
<p>Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-armenia-azerbaijan-agree-on-cease-fire-after-new-clashes" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href="htt... | 2023-08-11 | Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities? | 2023-02-10 | [["2023-02-10", 0.0], ["2023-02-10", 0.01], ["2023-02-10", 0.02], ["2023-02-10", 0.2525], ["2023-02-10", 0.246], ["2023-02-10", 0.3717], ["2023-02-10", 0.42], ["2023-02-11", 0.3988], ["2023-02-11", 0.3822], ["2023-02-11", 0.401], ["2023-02-11", 0.406], ["2023-02-11", 0.3873], ["2023-02-11", 0.3882], ["2023-02-11", 0.35... | ["https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/armenia-will-accept-karabakh-part-azerbaijan-subject-rights-guarantee-armenian-2023-05-22/", "https://news.am/eng/news/749568.html", "https://www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/azerbaijan-armenia-could-spark-wider-crisis", "https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/pkk-terrorists-armenians-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-08-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945 |
<p>Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-5646461... | 2021-08-15 | Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? | 2021-02-23 | [["2021-02-24", 0.98], ["2021-02-25", 0.99], ["2021-02-25", 0.95], ["2021-02-25", 0.865], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.79], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.825], ["2021-02-25", 0.85], ["2021-02-25", 0.8], ["2021-02-25", 0.85], ["2021-02-25", 0.85], ["2021-02-25",... | ["https://www.eureporter.co/world/russia/2021/07/28/kremlin-critic-alexei-navalnys-website-blocked-by-regulator-before-election/", "https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-critic-navalny-discloses-details-extremism-ruling-2021-06-23/", "https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-bills-government-and-politics-fc1328f358436b... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2719 |
<p>At least 51% of nurses in England must be included in the announced pay increase for it to count. A one-off payment would not count (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/08/rishi-sunak-consider-one-off-payment-end-nurses-strikes" target="_blank">Guardian</a>).</p><p></p><p><i><b>NOTE</b>: Ques... | 2023-03-01 | Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will the UK Department of Health and Social Care announce a new increase in pay for nurses in England? | 2023-01-18 | [["2023-01-18", 0.5], ["2023-01-18", 0.65], ["2023-01-18", 0.7667], ["2023-01-19", 0.6725], ["2023-01-19", 0.675], ["2023-01-19", 0.6875], ["2023-01-19", 0.59], ["2023-01-19", 0.5583], ["2023-01-19", 0.555], ["2023-01-19", 0.6186], ["2023-01-19", 0.6038], ["2023-01-19", 0.6256], ["2023-01-19", 0.563], ["2023-01-19", 0.... | ["https://www.england.nhs.uk/blog/transforming-perceptions-of-nursing-and-midwifery-a-challenge-that-comes-with-huge-opportunities/", "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/04/nurses-offer-to-call-off-strikes-if-sunak-matches-welsh-pay-offer", "https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2023/feb/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1491 |
<p>A lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia is becoming an issue of increasing concern (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/20/middleeast/saudi-arabia-iran-robertson-analysis-int... | 2021-01-01 | Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea? | 2020-01-17 | [["2020-01-17", 0.4], ["2020-01-18", 0.04], ["2020-01-18", 0.05], ["2020-01-18", 0.09], ["2020-01-19", 0.14], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.25], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.45], ["2020-01-19", 0.4], ["2020-01-19", 0.365], ["2020-01-19", 0.29], ["2020-01-19", ... | ["https://eurasiantimes.com/saudi-gives-green-signal-to-israel-can-putin-xi-defend-iran-against-an-impending-us-israel-attack/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-09-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2007 |
<p>Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/politics/breyer-democrats-retirement-talk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/551196-court-watchers-buzz-about... | 2021-09-01 | Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court? | 2021-05-14 | [["2021-05-14", 0.93], ["2021-05-14", 0.6], ["2021-05-14", 0.305], ["2021-05-14", 0.35], ["2021-05-14", 0.18], ["2021-05-14", 0.15], ["2021-05-14", 0.25], ["2021-05-14", 0.15], ["2021-05-14", 0.08], ["2021-05-14", 0.15], ["2021-05-14", 0.08], ["2021-05-14", 0.15], ["2021-05-14", 0.185], ["2021-05-14", 0.185], ["2021-05... | ["https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/07/stephen-breyer-judge-learned-hand-longevity.html", "https://theweek.com/supreme-court/1004231/stephen-breyer-hints-at-retiring-from-the-supreme-court", "https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/15/justice-breyer-retirement-plans-499745?fbclid=IwAR1UDpICJLdP8cZRGarILRtNtyZu3aHz... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-11-09 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2521 |
<p>All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (<a href="https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/" target="_blank">270 to Win</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Represent... | 2022-11-24 | Will former Governor Sarah Palin win the general election for Alaska's At Large Congressional District in 2022? | 2022-08-18 | [["2022-08-19", 0.7], ["2022-08-19", 0.75], ["2022-08-19", 0.5333], ["2022-08-19", 0.6375], ["2022-08-19", 0.665], ["2022-08-19", 0.73], ["2022-08-19", 0.715], ["2022-08-19", 0.6986], ["2022-08-19", 0.6738], ["2022-08-19", 0.6656], ["2022-08-19", 0.645], ["2022-08-19", 0.6773], ["2022-08-19", 0.6792], ["2022-08-20", 0.... | ["https://forecast.decisiondeskhq.com/house/H2022AK00", "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/alaska/1/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/09/palin-begich-ranked-choice-voting/", "https://twitter.com/MaryPeltola/status/1586152112580435968", "https://www.metaculus.com/questio... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2105 |
<p>The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as "Freedom Day" (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-what-are-the-remaining-rules-in-england-after-freedom-day-12359221" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://ww... | 2022-01-03 | Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022? | 2021-08-19 | [["2021-08-20", 0.14], ["2021-08-20", 0.625], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.25], ["2021-08-20", 0.2], ["2021-08-21", 0.2], ["2021-08-21", 0.18], ["2021-08-21", 0.135], ["2021-08-21", 0.095], ["2021-08-21", 0.1], ["2021-08-21", 0.1], ["2021-08-21", 0.105], ["2021-08-21", 0.1], ["2021-08-22... | ["https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10344475/SIR-GRAHAM-BRADY-Cabinet-Ministers-lining-against-lockdown-best-Christmas-present-all.html", "https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1475509168362737664", "https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/458749/uk-reports-record-new-covid-19-cases-after-johnson-rules-out-restricti... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1984 |
<p>Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-protests-facialrecognition/u-s-lawmakers-aim-to-curtail-face-recognition-even-as-the-technology-ids-capitol-attackers-idUS... | 2022-01-03 | Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology? | 2021-04-09 | [["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.005], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-09", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["2021-04-10", 0.0], ["... | ["https://epic.org/2021/02/epic-coalition-urge-biden-admi.html", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1262012", "https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/21/1025155/amazon-face-recognition-federal-ban-police-reform/", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/21/data-surveillance-bill/", "https://www.wired.com/sto... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-02-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1422 | <p>The U.S. and Taliban were seemingly close to a peace agreement in September 2019, but talks abruptly ended after a Taliban attack (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17351/edition2020worst-afghanistan-could-be-yet-come" target="_blank">Economist</a>). Talks restarted in December 2019 (<a href="https://ww... | 2020-03-02 | Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban sign a peace agreement? | 2019-12-12 | [["2019-12-20", 0.01], ["2019-12-21", 0.05], ["2019-12-21", 0.055], ["2019-12-22", 0.06], ["2019-12-22", 0.095], ["2019-12-23", 0.145], ["2019-12-23", 0.155], ["2019-12-24", 0.075], ["2019-12-25", 0.075], ["2019-12-26", 0.1], ["2019-12-27", 0.1], ["2019-12-27", 0.135], ["2019-12-28", 0.115], ["2019-12-28", 0.11], ["201... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-09-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1628 |
<p>The UAE has implemented varying virus spread mitigation measures as it lifts many previous restrictions (<a href="https://ae.usembassy.gov/u-s-citizen-services/covid-19-information/" target="_blank">U.S. Embassy - UAE</a>). The outcome will be determined using information reported by the Johns Hopkins COVID-19... | 2020-09-19 | Before 1 October 2020, will there be a period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)? | 2020-05-21 | [["2020-05-21", 0.0], ["2020-05-21", 0.1], ["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-21", 0.005], ["2020-05-21", 0.01], ["2020-05-21", 0.015], ["2020-05-21", 0.02], ["2020-05-21", 0.085], ["2020-05-21", 0.15], ["2020-05-21", 0.175], ["2020-05-21", 0.225], ["2020-05-21", 0.225], ["2020-05-21", 0.3], ["2020-05-22", 0.3], ["2020-05... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851 |
<p>
Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president" target="_blank">Economist</a>).<... | 2021-10-01 | Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? | 2020-11-25 | [["2020-11-27", 0.575], ["2020-11-27", 0.1], ["2020-11-27", 0.085], ["2020-11-27", 0.09], ["2020-11-28", 0.09], ["2020-11-28", 0.065], ["2020-11-28", 0.065], ["2020-11-28", 0.065], ["2020-11-28", 0.03], ["2020-11-28", 0.005], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.01], ["2020-11-28", 0.005], ["2020-11-28", 0.02], ["202... | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-24/brazil-politics-bolsonaro-says-he-won-t-doubt-voting-system", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/bolsonaro-evolving-well-will-remain-hospitalized-for-treatment", "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-says-sept-7-marches-will-not-be... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2877 |
<p>International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (<a href="https://www.africanews.com/2023/04/21/tunisian-president-slams-critics-following-opposition-leaders-arrest//" target="_blank">Africa News</a>, <a href="https://... | 2023-11-11 | Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt? | 2023-05-11 | [["2023-05-11", 0.99], ["2023-05-11", 0.995], ["2023-05-11", 0.6633], ["2023-05-12", 0.7225], ["2023-05-12", 0.578], ["2023-05-12", 0.574], ["2023-05-12", 0.5033], ["2023-05-12", 0.5017], ["2023-05-12", 0.5], ["2023-05-12", 0.4943], ["2023-05-13", 0.495], ["2023-05-13", 0.48], ["2023-05-13", 0.4756], ["2023-05-13", 0.4... | ["https://www.agbi.com/articles/tunisia-repays-74-of-debt-to-ease-default-fears/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/11/tunisia-president-kais-saied-migration-europe-border-guard-comments-imf-bailout", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia%E2%80%93Tunisia_relation", "https://tradingeconomics.com/country... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2396 |
<p>After weeks of protests over inflation and food shortages, Sri Lanka Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned in early May while his brother Gotabaya continued on as the country's president (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/1097562723/the-prime-minister-of-sri-lanka-resigns-after-weeks-of-protests" tar... | 2022-07-14 | Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022? | 2022-05-20 | [["2022-05-20", 0.05], ["2022-05-20", 0.08], ["2022-05-20", 0.05], ["2022-05-20", 0.08], ["2022-05-20", 0.11], ["2022-05-20", 0.135], ["2022-05-20", 0.11], ["2022-05-20", 0.135], ["2022-05-20", 0.16], ["2022-05-21", 0.135], ["2022-05-21", 0.135], ["2022-05-21", 0.11], ["2022-05-21", 0.11], ["2022-05-21", 0.105], ["2022... | ["https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/sri-lanka-gotabaya-rajapaksa-mahinda-protests-long-haul/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_Sri_Lanka", "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-police-fire-tear-gas-anti-government-protesters-2022-07-09/", "https://www.npr.org/2022/05/09/109756272... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-10-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2530 |
<p>Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/12/euro-and-us-dollar-near-parity-heres-what-that-means-for-t... | 2022-10-08 | Will the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate be higher than 1.00 on 7 October 2022? | 2022-09-01 | [["2022-09-12", 0.575], ["2022-09-12", 0.6875], ["2022-09-12", 0.705], ["2022-09-12", 0.6038], ["2022-09-12", 0.533], ["2022-09-12", 0.5542], ["2022-09-12", 0.555], ["2022-09-13", 0.5794], ["2022-09-13", 0.5678], ["2022-09-13", 0.611], ["2022-09-13", 0.6059], ["2022-09-13", 0.6083], ["2022-09-13", 0.6088], ["2022-09-13... | ["https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sterling-stands-tall-after-uk-policy-u-turn-aussie-wobbles-before-rba-2022-10-04/", "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/opinion/us-dollar-global-impact.html", "https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1106505/why-we-expect-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-in-2023", "https://tinyurl.com... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-11-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1694 |
<p>In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/cares" target="_blank">Treasury.gov</... | 2020-11-03 | Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments become law? | 2020-07-10 | [["2020-07-10", 0.975], ["2020-07-10", 0.875], ["2020-07-10", 0.775], ["2020-07-10", 0.775], ["2020-07-10", 0.875], ["2020-07-10", 0.89], ["2020-07-10", 0.915], ["2020-07-10", 0.915], ["2020-07-11", 0.915], ["2020-07-11", 0.85], ["2020-07-11", 0.825], ["2020-07-11", 0.825], ["2020-07-11", 0.95], ["2020-07-11", 0.9], ["... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930 |
<p>In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/" tar... | 2022-01-03 | Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? | 2021-02-10 | [["2021-02-10", 0.02], ["2021-02-10", 0.13], ["2021-02-10", 0.045], ["2021-02-10", 0.135], ["2021-02-11", 0.135], ["2021-02-11", 0.05], ["2021-02-11", 0.05], ["2021-02-11", 0.05], ["2021-02-11", 0.05], ["2021-02-11", 0.07], ["2021-02-11", 0.06], ["2021-02-11", 0.085], ["2021-02-11", 0.085], ["2021-02-11", 0.06], ["2021... | ["https://www.npr.org/live-updates/buffalo-supermarket-shooting", "https://apnews.com/article/george-floyd-richmond-race-and-ethnicity-racial-injustice-virginia-6fe850aff69b858d99b34436b9b87d8b", "https://www.dhs.gov/national-terrorism-advisory-system", "https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-sys... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-12-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2913 |
<p>NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/13/blinken-previews-robust-package-for-ukraine-with-nato-secretary-general-00101734" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/nato-ukraine-russia-war-foot... | 2023-12-16 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023? | 2023-06-16 | [["2023-06-16", 0.0], ["2023-06-16", 0.05], ["2023-06-16", 0.01], ["2023-06-16", 0.025], ["2023-06-16", 0.02], ["2023-06-16", 0.015], ["2023-06-16", 0.092], ["2023-06-16", 0.0783], ["2023-06-16", 0.07], ["2023-06-16", 0.0613], ["2023-06-16", 0.1544], ["2023-06-16", 0.0556], ["2023-06-16", 0.05], ["2023-06-16", 0.0955],... | ["https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/16/7407196/", "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine", "https://news.yahoo.com/romanian-cargo-ship-falls-victim-121500997.html", "https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-warns-poland-attack-belarus-russia/", "https://www.pravda.com.ua... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2921 |
<p>Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-prigozhin-wagner-belarus-ed3af6c3985242e69b07b6f9494cf117" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://english.alar... | 2023-11-01 | Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2023-06-30 | [["2023-06-30", 0.0], ["2023-06-30", 0.03], ["2023-06-30", 0.22], ["2023-06-30", 0.2225], ["2023-06-30", 0.188], ["2023-06-30", 0.1683], ["2023-06-30", 0.18], ["2023-06-30", 0.2075], ["2023-06-30", 0.1956], ["2023-06-30", 0.181], ["2023-06-30", 0.1709], ["2023-06-30", 0.1567], ["2023-06-30", 0.1577], ["2023-06-30", 0.1... | ["https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/6/30/russia-ukraine-live-hrw-says-kyiv-used-banned-landmines", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66249551", "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-false-flag-ukraine-russia-b2387801.html", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-06 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904 |
<p>The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (<a href="https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859" target="_blank">Edinburgh Live</a>, <a href="https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx" target="_blank">Parliam... | 2021-05-10 | Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? | 2021-01-15 | [["2021-01-15", 0.875], ["2021-01-15", 0.95], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-15", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], ["2021-01-16", 1.0], [... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_and_pocket_boroughs#:~:text=A%20rotten%20or%20pocket%20borough,gain%20unrepresentative%20influence%20within%20the", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election#North_East_Scotland", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-08/johnson-rejects-scottish-r... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-06-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1415 |
<p>There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (<a href="https://worldin.economist.com/article/17371/edition2020nuclear-non-proliferation-fears-unhappy-50th-birthday" target="_blank">Economist</a>). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon ... | 2020-06-02 | Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement? | 2019-12-06 | [["2019-12-06", 0.525], ["2019-12-06", 0.465], ["2019-12-07", 0.3], ["2019-12-07", 0.3], ["2019-12-07", 0.175], ["2019-12-07", 0.05], ["2019-12-08", 0.05], ["2019-12-08", 0.05], ["2019-12-08", 0.02], ["2019-12-08", 0.01], ["2019-12-08", 0.015], ["2019-12-08", 0.005], ["2019-12-08", 0.015], ["2019-12-08", 0.03], ["2019-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2300 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Tesla in its Production and Delivery press release for the second quarter of 2022, expected in early July 2022 (<a href="https://ir.tesla.com/#tab-quarterly-disclosure" target="_blank">Tesla</a>).</p><p></p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="f... | 2022-07-02 | Will Tesla produce at least 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022? | 2022-03-09 | [["2022-03-15", 1.0], ["2022-03-15", 1.0], ["2022-03-15", 0.99], ["2022-03-15", 0.945], ["2022-03-15", 0.98], ["2022-03-15", 0.98], ["2022-03-15", 0.98], ["2022-03-15", 0.98], ["2022-03-16", 0.97], ["2022-03-16", 0.92], ["2022-03-16", 0.9], ["2022-03-16", 0.9], ["2022-03-16", 0.87], ["2022-03-16", 0.86], ["2022-03-16",... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1429724", "https://cleantechnica.com/2022/05/05/q2-2022-will-be-monstrous-for-tesla/", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLlCrw9TQZA", "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/barclays-sees-q2-risk-for-tesla-but-says-market-may-swing-trade-shares-up-432SI-2835691", "https://twi... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2520 |
<p>Like most Arab states, Saudi Arabia does not officially recognize Israel despite some cooperation between the two countries (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220715-biden-commends-saudi-decision-to-end-israel-ban-by-opening-airspace-to-all-carries" target="_blank">France 24</a>, <a href... | 2023-03-01 | Will Saudi Arabia announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 March 2023? | 2022-08-18 | [["2022-08-19", 0.05], ["2022-08-19", 0.155], ["2022-08-19", 0.1383], ["2022-08-19", 0.2557], ["2022-08-19", 0.37], ["2022-08-19", 0.4073], ["2022-08-20", 0.385], ["2022-08-20", 0.3943], ["2022-08-20", 0.3919], ["2022-08-20", 0.4171], ["2022-08-20", 0.3944], ["2022-08-20", 0.3789], ["2022-08-20", 0.377], ["2022-08-20",... | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/israel-and-saudi-arabia-no-longer-enemies-but-not-quite-friends", "https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/saudi-arabia-us-israel-biden-mbs-oil-normalisation", "https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2020-08-21/ty-article/saudi-price-for-ties-with-israel-is-palestinian-st... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2585 |
<p>Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124237272/mahsa-amini-iran-women-protest-hijab-morality-police" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a href="https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/09/ira... | 2023-01-05 | Between 16 September 2022 and 31 December 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 1,000 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights? | 2022-10-13 | [["2022-10-14", 0.41], ["2022-10-14", 0.49], ["2022-10-14", 0.5], ["2022-10-14", 0.525], ["2022-10-14", 0.535], ["2022-10-14", 0.608], ["2022-10-14", 0.5067], ["2022-10-14", 0.51], ["2022-10-14", 0.515], ["2022-10-14", 0.4986], ["2022-10-14", 0.5025], ["2022-10-14", 0.4988], ["2022-10-14", 0.4989], ["2022-10-14", 0.502... | ["https://www.iranintl.com/en/202211215741", "https://iranhr.net/en/articles/5572/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/14/iran-issues-first-known-death-sentence-linked-to-recent-protests.html", "https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/10/18/irans-protests-spread-as-a-notorious-prison-burns", "https://www.yout... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-06-23 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863 |
<p>Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (<a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107" target="_blank">Oyez</a>, <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files... | 2021-06-23 | In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? | 2020-12-11 | [["2020-12-11", 0.75], ["2020-12-12", 0.775], ["2020-12-12", 0.8], ["2020-12-12", 0.825], ["2020-12-12", 0.85], ["2020-12-12", 0.9], ["2020-12-13", 0.95], ["2020-12-13", 0.975], ["2020-12-13", 1.0], ["2020-12-13", 1.0], ["2020-12-13", 0.975], ["2020-12-13", 0.975], ["2020-12-13", 0.95], ["2020-12-13", 0.945], ["2020-12... | ["https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2020/20-107_3ebh.pdf", "https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2019/05/08/16-16321.pdf", "https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/20/opinion/Supreme-Court-labor-property-rights.html", "https://reason.com/volokh/2021/03/23/actual-property-law-in-cedar-p... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856 |
<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href=... | 2021-04-06 | Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? | 2020-12-04 | [["2020-12-04", 0.81], ["2020-12-04", 0.8], ["2020-12-04", 0.8], ["2020-12-04", 0.75], ["2020-12-04", 0.8], ["2020-12-05", 0.85], ["2020-12-05", 0.85], ["2020-12-05", 0.85], ["2020-12-05", 0.865], ["2020-12-05", 0.89], ["2020-12-05", 0.89], ["2020-12-05", 0.865], ["2020-12-05", 0.88], ["2020-12-06", 0.85], ["2020-12-06... | ["https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update#:~:text=Amid%20exceptional%20uncertainty%2C%20the%20global,and%204.2%20percent%20in%202022", "https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/WEOWORLD", "https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-j... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-09-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2334 |
<p>Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-karabakh-russian-peacekeepers-aghajanian/31770903.html" target="_blank">Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty</a... | 2022-09-14 | Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities? | 2022-04-01 | [["2022-04-01", 0.3], ["2022-04-01", 0.19], ["2022-04-01", 0.43], ["2022-04-01", 0.15], ["2022-04-01", 0.1125], ["2022-04-01", 0.29], ["2022-04-01", 0.325], ["2022-04-01", 0.3233333333333333], ["2022-04-01", 0.3057142857142857], ["2022-04-01", 0.27], ["2022-04-01", 0.24555555555555555], ["2022-04-01", 0.268], ["2022-04... | ["https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/armenia-azerbaijan-leaders-to-hold-eu-mediated-talks-01661427307", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/armenias-pm-says-49-soldiers-died-in-clashes-with-azerbaijan.html", "https://armenianweekly.com/2022/07/27/will-iran-fight-azerbaijan-if-baku-seeks-to-invade-syunik/", "https://www.dail... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1622 |
<p>The COVID-19 outbreak has greatly impacted the aviation industry (<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-calhoun-airlines-bankruptcy-credit-default-swaps-51589294871" target="_blank">Barron's</a>, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/airline-cash-grants-offered-by-federal-government-could-f... | 2020-12-01 | Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy? | 2020-05-15 | [["2020-05-18", 1.0], ["2020-05-18", 0.95], ["2020-05-18", 0.96], ["2020-05-18", 0.93], ["2020-05-18", 0.825], ["2020-05-18", 0.825], ["2020-05-18", 0.825], ["2020-05-19", 0.865], ["2020-05-19", 0.765], ["2020-05-19", 0.75], ["2020-05-19", 0.825], ["2020-05-19", 0.85], ["2020-05-19", 0.8], ["2020-05-19", 0.85], ["2020-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2102 |
<p>There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-rishi-sunak-writes-letter-to-pm-calling-for-relaxation-of-holiday-rules-to-boost-the-economy-reports-suggest-12369622" target="_blank">Sky News</a>, <a href="https://ww... | 2022-01-01 | Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022? | 2021-08-19 | [["2021-08-20", 0.2], ["2021-08-20", 0.15], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.065], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.065], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-20", 0.1], ["2021-08-21", 0.1], ["2021-08-21", 0.06], ["2021-08-21", 0.08], ["2021-08-21", 0.06], ["2021-08-21", 0.045], ["2021-08-21", ... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election", "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson?content=trackers", "https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-are-no-longer-the-party-of-business-prznb268l", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_and_Calling_of_Parliam... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2342 |
<p>The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017 suspended the "business use of home" tax deduction, which meant that those working from home who were not self-employed were generally denied the ability to deduct work-from-home expenses from their taxes (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/you-probably-cant-write... | 2023-03-01 | Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses become law before 1 March 2023? | 2022-04-05 | [["2022-04-06", 0.1], ["2022-04-06", 0.55], ["2022-04-06", 0.7], ["2022-04-06", 0.775], ["2022-04-06", 0.68], ["2022-04-06", 0.6], ["2022-04-06", 0.5228571428571429], ["2022-04-06", 0.55125], ["2022-04-06", 0.5777777777777777], ["2022-04-06", 0.538], ["2022-04-06", 0.628], ["2022-04-06", 0.608], ["2022-04-06", 0.583], ... | ["https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/19/10-jobs-with-the-most-remote-work-opportunities-and-how-much-they-pay.html", "https://content.rollcall.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2023CQRCCongressionalCalendar.pdf", "https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/taxes/2023/02/16/who-can-deduct-home-offices-taxes/11205648002/", "https://www... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2720 |
<p>For examples of previous resolutions in any way condemning Russia by name, please see https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3990673?ln=en and https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3965290?ln=en. Some variation of the verb "condemn" must be used in the resolution to count. In a related UN General Assembly resolut... | 2023-03-01 | Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will 60 or more countries in the UN General Assembly either vote against or abstain from voting on a resolution in any way condemning Russia by name? | 2023-01-18 | [["2023-01-18", 0.0], ["2023-01-18", 0.09], ["2023-01-18", 0.06], ["2023-01-18", 0.07], ["2023-01-18", 0.056], ["2023-01-19", 0.055], ["2023-01-19", 0.0567], ["2023-01-19", 0.0571], ["2023-01-19", 0.0586], ["2023-01-19", 0.0513], ["2023-01-19", 0.0456], ["2023-01-19", 0.042], ["2023-01-19", 0.0391], ["2023-01-19", 0.03... | ["https://ecfr.eu/article/aggression-on-trial-the-tricky-path-towards-prosecuting-russian-war-leaders/", "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64748349", "https://www.passblue.com/2023/01/15/ukraine-drops-its-peace-formula-summit-plan-to-be-held-at-the-un-in-february/", "https://www.voanews.com/a/un-general-assembly-w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2141 |
<p>Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to "Taiwan Representative Office" (<a href="https://www.roc-taiwan.org/us_en/index.html" target="_blank">Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in th... | 2023-01-01 | Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan? | 2021-09-30 | [["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 1.0], ["2021-09-30", 0.6666666666666666], ["2021-09-30", 0.75], ["2021-10-01", 0.7], ["2021-10-01", 0.75], ["2021-10-01", 0.6714285714285714], ["2021-10-01", 0.5875], ["2021-10-01", 0.5222222222222223], ["2021-10-01", 0.48], ["2021-10-02", 0.38], ["2021-10-02", 0.29], ["2021-10-03",... | ["https://www.ft.com/content/07810ece-b35b-47e7-a6d2-c876b7b40444", "https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/s4428/BILLS-117s4428is.pdf", "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-07-17/How-Biden-s-America-really-sees-Taiwan-11Y8B0nwLeM/index.html", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/us-position-on-taiwan-unchanged-despite-biden-comme... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-08-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2331 |
<p>The US has alleged that Russia is considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine (<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220322-biden-says-putin-considering-using-chemical-biological-weapons-in-ukraine" target="_blank">France 24</a>). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member s... | 2022-08-05 | Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine? | 2022-04-01 | [["2022-04-01", 0.7], ["2022-04-01", 0.475], ["2022-04-01", 0.425], ["2022-04-01", 0.425], ["2022-04-01", 0.425], ["2022-04-01", 0.4], ["2022-04-01", 0.35], ["2022-04-01", 0.34], ["2022-04-01", 0.32], ["2022-04-01", 0.3], ["2022-04-01", 0.28], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-01", 0.22], ["2022-04-02", 0.2], ["2022-04-0... | ["https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/04/24/what-are-flechettes-a-brutal-weapon-used-in-ukraine", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dvornikov#Russo-Ukrainian_War", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_chemical_weapons_in_the_Syrian... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-05-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782 |
<p>Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11e... | 2021-05-01 | Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? | 2020-09-11 | [["2020-09-11", 0.5], ["2020-09-11", 0.25], ["2020-09-11", 0.0], ["2020-09-11", 0.025], ["2020-09-11", 0.05], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.05], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.03], ["2020-09-11", 0.01], ["2020-09-11... | ["https://fortune.com/2020/11/02/election-cyber-security-2020/", "https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/24/suspected-russian-hackers-made-failed-attempt-to-breach-crowdstrike.html", "https://www.cnet.com/news/solarwinds-hack-hits-major-tech-companies-and-hospital-system-what-you-need-to-know/", "https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/1... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-12-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2789 |
<p>The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refuted reports that it plans to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid policy differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/no-current-plan-for-the-uae-to-leave-opec-oil-alliance-sources-say.html" target="... | 2023-12-21 | Before 1 January 2024, will an OPEC member country announce that it will leave the organization? | 2023-03-10 | [["2023-03-10", 0.0], ["2023-03-10", 0.0], ["2023-03-10", 0.11], ["2023-03-10", 0.0825], ["2023-03-10", 0.086], ["2023-03-10", 0.08], ["2023-03-10", 0.0757], ["2023-03-10", 0.0713], ["2023-03-11", 0.0689], ["2023-03-11", 0.067], ["2023-03-11", 0.068], ["2023-03-11", 0.069], ["2023-03-11", 0.069], ["2023-03-11", 0.0627]... | ["https://twitter.com/HESuhail/status/1501683226884321283", "https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/china-settles-first-lng-trade-yuan-uae-deal", "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/no-current-plan-for-the-uae-to-leave-opec-oil-alliance-sources-say.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OPEC#Membership", "https://en.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-01-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2612 |
<p>While Hong Kong lifted its compulsory quarantine requirement for travelers outside of China in September 2022, such requirements remain for travelers to the PRC mainland (<a href="https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202209/24/P2022092400048.htm" target="_blank">Government of Hong Kong</a>, <a href="https://chi... | 2023-01-08 | Before 1 July 2023, will the People's Republic of China (PRC) cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine? | 2022-11-04 | [["2022-11-04", 0.71], ["2022-11-04", 0.405], ["2022-11-04", 0.3033], ["2022-11-04", 0.4525], ["2022-11-04", 0.428], ["2022-11-04", 0.4033], ["2022-11-04", 0.46], ["2022-11-04", 0.4188], ["2022-11-04", 0.4078], ["2022-11-05", 0.412], ["2022-11-05", 0.417], ["2022-11-05", 0.3836], ["2022-11-05", 0.4183], ["2022-11-05", ... | ["https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3200823/shanghai-disneyland-reopen-after-25-day-hiatus-despite-rising-covid-19-cases-and-controls-city", "https://www.ft.com/content/eb8530d3-414f-4e65-8ce5-09fba3dbee14", "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-axes-travel-tracking-app-latest-easing-covid-curbs... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2020-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1597 |
<p>Hungary's parliament passed emergency measures to allow the government to rule by decree during the coronavirus pandemic, a move being criticized by many as authoritarian (<a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/what-should-the-eu-do-about-hungary-coronavirus-viktor-orban/" target="_blank">Politico.eu</a>, <a... | 2021-01-01 | Will the Council of the European Union make an Article 7.1 determination against Hungary before 31 December 2020? | 2020-04-17 | [["2020-04-17", 0.5], ["2020-04-17", 0.99], ["2020-04-17", 0.65], ["2020-04-17", 0.5], ["2020-04-17", 0.425], ["2020-04-17", 0.425], ["2020-04-17", 0.3], ["2020-04-17", 0.225], ["2020-04-18", 0.225], ["2020-04-18", 0.2], ["2020-04-18", 0.125], ["2020-04-18", 0.125], ["2020-04-18", 0.15], ["2020-04-18", 0.125], ["2020-0... | ["https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-agrees-2021-budget-waits-131146751.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFEBoFgfBxbjrtLTSFqDSZP3E2QK681tKCHsU0Mw3f8ZeZ79aGgGcZkmL9rCJDYcj-Dkz4YaJ1vUgfcpU7EPwoRYPlWiUo_sUFwKO9EkVEB7lpr9fMIOzR3o87-s2UQwwPTmn5rJfkqbirb5qsCx66_y... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2133 |
<p>Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags (<a href="https://gulfbusiness.com/how-data-is-quantifying-the-impact-of-plastic-on-the-environment/" target="_blank">Gulf Business</a>, <a href="https://www.ar... | 2023-01-08 | Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023? | 2021-09-24 | [["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-24", 0.5], ["2021-09-25", 0.6], ["2021-09-25", 0.5083333333333333], ["2021-09-25", 0.5271428571428571], ["2021-09-26", 0.525], ["2021-09-26", 0.52625], ["2021-09-26", 0.47333333333333333], ["2021-09-26", 0.511], ["2021-09-26", 0.421], ["2021-09-2... | ["https://www.khaleejtimes.com/search?q=plastic+bag", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1364277", "https://whatson.ae/2020/03/abu-dhabi-to-ban-all-single-use-plastic-bags-by-2021/", "https://gulfbusiness.com/sharjah-to-ban-single-use-plastic-bags-from-january-1-2024/", "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/environment/uae-anoth... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2706 |
<p>The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and current appropriations would expire on 30 September 2023 (<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41759" target="_blank">Congressional Research Service</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-signs-17t-governme... | 2024-01-01 | Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in 2023? | 2023-01-13 | [["2023-01-13", 0.6067], ["2023-01-13", 0.6067], ["2023-01-13", 0.605], ["2023-01-14", 0.6491], ["2023-01-14", 0.5743], ["2023-01-14", 0.64], ["2023-01-14", 0.652], ["2023-01-14", 0.67], ["2023-01-15", 0.6804], ["2023-01-15", 0.6865], ["2023-01-15", 0.6755], ["2023-01-16", 0.6594], ["2023-01-16", 0.6634], ["2023-01-16"... | ["https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/us/politics/government-shutdown-vote-mike-johnson.html", "https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/13/politics/mike-johnson-government-funding-what-matters/index.html", "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/shutdown-deadline-poses-test-us-congress-is-compromise-possible-2023-11-06/", "https://thehil... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2131 |
<p>The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (<a href="https://www.expo2020dubai.com/" target="_blank">EXPO2020</a>, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/middle-easts-first-expo-open-110725927.html" target="_blank">Yahoo</a>, <a h... | 2022-04-04 | Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits? | 2021-09-24 | [["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-24", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-25", 0.005], ["2021-09-25", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["2021-09-26", 0.0], ["... | ["https://www.africa.com/dine-by-night-free-entry-to-expo-2020-dubai/", "https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/expo-2020/2022/03/15/expo-2020-dubai-almost-16m-visits-in-one-week-as-numbers-reach-19m/", "https://gulfnews.com/expo-2020/expo-2020-dubai-crosses-half-way-mark-with-almost-9-million-visits-1.84745727", "https:/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-12-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2622 |
<p>Left-wing President José Pedro Castillo Terrones won a close election in 2021 and has faced various challenges while in office (<a href="https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-venezuela-peru-caribbean-4f1b9a235f21ebbbd80ff3522fe2ef98" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/article... | 2022-12-07 | Will Pedro Castillo cease to be the president of the Peru before 1 January 2024? | 2022-11-11 | [["2022-11-11", 0.25], ["2022-11-11", 0.565], ["2022-11-11", 0.5433], ["2022-11-11", 0.545], ["2022-11-12", 0.636], ["2022-11-12", 0.53], ["2022-11-12", 0.5317], ["2022-11-12", 0.53], ["2022-11-12", 0.5614], ["2022-11-13", 0.5038], ["2022-11-13", 0.5025], ["2022-11-14", 0.5089], ["2022-11-14", 0.525], ["2022-11-14", 0.... | ["https://perureports.com/thousands-march-in-peru-against-president-pedro-castillo/9810/", "https://www.statista.com/statistics/1277779/approval-rate-peruvian-president-castillo/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070 |
<p>Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haiti-moves-constitutional-referendum-september-2021-06-29/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). The assassination of Presi... | 2022-01-01 | Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022? | 2021-07-16 | [["2021-07-16", 0.0], ["2021-07-16", 0.5], ["2021-07-16", 0.1], ["2021-07-17", 0.05], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.005], ["2021-07-17", 0.005], ["2021-07-17", 0.01], ["2021-07-17", 0.055], ["2021-07-17", 0.1], ["2021-07-17", 0.065], ["2021-07-17", 0.1], ["2021-07-17", 0.07], ["2021-07-17", 0.04], ["2021-07-17... | ["https://www.npr.org/2021/09/14/1037012177/haiti-prosecutor-asks-judge-charge-prime-minister-moise-assassination", "https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article255199321.html", "https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/18/haiti-earthquake-disaster-leaders-needed/", "https://www.mcclatchydc.com/n... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-02-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184 |
<p>Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337" target="_blank">Politico</a>, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-ukrai... | 2022-02-24 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022? | 2021-11-04 | [["2021-11-05", 0.49], ["2021-11-06", 0.68], ["2021-11-06", 0.715], ["2021-11-06", 0.68], ["2021-11-06", 0.59], ["2021-11-06", 0.3], ["2021-11-07", 0.155], ["2021-11-07", 0.13], ["2021-11-07", 0.11], ["2021-11-07", 0.11], ["2021-11-07", 0.11], ["2021-11-08", 0.115], ["2021-11-09", 0.105], ["2021-11-09", 0.1], ["2021-11... | ["https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1491521222437445633", "https://spectatorworld.com/topic/springtime-for-liberal-interventionists/", "https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512272", "https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-18%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf", "https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-rus... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-12-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045 |
<p>The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>).</p><p></p><p style="line-height:1;"><span style="font-size:10.5px;">Confused? Check our </span><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#questi... | 2022-01-02 | Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021? | 2021-06-17 | [["2021-06-18", 1.0], ["2021-06-18", 1.0], ["2021-06-18", 1.0], ["2021-06-19", 0.96], ["2021-06-19", 0.885], ["2021-06-19", 0.88], ["2021-06-20", 0.88], ["2021-06-20", 0.88], ["2021-06-20", 0.84], ["2021-06-20", 0.79], ["2021-06-20", 0.7], ["2021-06-21", 0.65], ["2021-06-21", 0.605], ["2021-06-21", 0.6], ["2021-06-21",... | ["https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50396", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak#Hong_Kong", "https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price", "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-pause-or-not-to-pause-oil-output-increases-is-the-question-opec-faces-as-it-meets-wednes... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2021-06-03 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855 |
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (<a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic" target="_blank">Economist</a>, <a href="... | 2021-06-04 | Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? | 2020-12-04 | [["2020-12-04", 0.48], ["2020-12-04", 0.475], ["2020-12-04", 0.7], ["2020-12-04", 0.7], ["2020-12-04", 0.7], ["2020-12-05", 0.7], ["2020-12-05", 0.76], ["2020-12-05", 0.75], ["2020-12-05", 0.775], ["2020-12-05", 0.775], ["2020-12-05", 0.8], ["2020-12-05", 0.8], ["2020-12-05", 0.8], ["2020-12-05", 0.8], ["2020-12-06", 0... | ["https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/coronavirusandselfemploymentintheuk/2020-04-24", "https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/15april2021", "h... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2344 |
<p>As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and others have voiced concerns over China possibly providing support for Russia's war effort (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60732486" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/explainer-plausible-chinese-milita... | 2022-10-12 | Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine? | 2022-04-08 | [["2022-04-08", 0.5], ["2022-04-08", 0.335], ["2022-04-08", 0.266], ["2022-04-08", 0.262], ["2022-04-08", 0.3157142857142857], ["2022-04-08", 0.2511111111111111], ["2022-04-08", 0.232], ["2022-04-08", 0.189], ["2022-04-09", 0.269], ["2022-04-09", 0.116], ["2022-04-09", 0.142], ["2022-04-09", 0.237], ["2022-04-09", 0.25... | ["https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/india-is-reluctant-to-condemn-russia-its-history-with-china-looms-large-51652132357?utm_source=twtw&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TWTW%202022May13&utm_term=TWTW%20and%20All%20Staff%20as%20of%207-9-20", "https://tpyxa.net/2022/08/04/at-one-of-the-stations-in-the-rostov-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2787 |
<p>As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-27/kremlin-says-it-is-concerned-by-situation-in-breakaway-moldovan-region" target="_blank">US News & World Report</a>, <a href="ht... | 2023-10-01 | Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023? | 2023-03-07 | [["2023-03-08", 0.6], ["2023-03-08", 0.3], ["2023-03-08", 0.305], ["2023-03-08", 0.22], ["2023-03-08", 0.1675], ["2023-03-08", 0.138], ["2023-03-08", 0.14], ["2023-03-08", 0.1329], ["2023-03-09", 0.1163], ["2023-03-09", 0.1133], ["2023-03-09", 0.122], ["2023-03-09", 0.1255], ["2023-03-09", 0.1367], ["2023-03-09", 0.18]... | ["https://euobserver.com/world/156884", "https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/05/eu-gives-extra-40-million-loan-to-moldova", "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts", "https://www.rferl.org/a/moldova-tauber-shor-official-arrested-airport/32386939.html", "https://f24.my/9OqMterview", "https://amp.cn... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-10-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2571 |
<p>Since becoming the UK prime minister in early September 2022, Liz Truss is facing a number of challenges, including blowback from an economic plan and political tensions in Northern Ireland (<a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/06/1121266992/liz-truss-prime-minister-queen-elizabeth" target="_blank">NPR</a>, <a... | 2022-10-25 | Before 1 April 2023, will Liz Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | 2022-10-04 | [["2022-10-04", 0.52], ["2022-10-04", 0.32], ["2022-10-04", 0.5133], ["2022-10-04", 0.51], ["2022-10-04", 0.408], ["2022-10-04", 0.365], ["2022-10-04", 0.3143], ["2022-10-04", 0.2788], ["2022-10-04", 0.2533], ["2022-10-04", 0.2511], ["2022-10-04", 0.236], ["2022-10-04", 0.234], ["2022-10-04", 0.2127], ["2022-10-04", 0.... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/the-ghost-pm-what-the-papers-say-about-liz-trusss-hold-on-power", "https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1582753580746174465", "https://www.ft.com/content/08908266-cc47-4cda-b8d4-97a8ac433a6d", "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/uk-prime-minister-liz-truss-resigns-after-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2023-12-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2818 |
<p>The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/taiwan-reports-large-chinese-incursion-into-its-air-de... | 2023-12-01 | Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2023? | 2023-03-30 | [["2023-03-31", 0.12], ["2023-03-31", 0.31], ["2023-03-31", 0.24], ["2023-03-31", 0.205], ["2023-03-31", 0.194], ["2023-03-31", 0.2183], ["2023-03-31", 0.33], ["2023-03-31", 0.2888], ["2023-03-31", 0.2756], ["2023-03-31", 0.318], ["2023-03-31", 0.2945], ["2023-04-01", 0.2708], ["2023-04-01", 0.25], ["2023-04-01", 0.25]... | ["https://www.brookings.edu/events/what-does-the-future-hold-for-taiwan/", "https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chinese-warship-cuts-off-us-navy-ship-marking/story?id=99817905", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis", "https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/17/china/china-navy-warships-around-taiwan-intl-hnk-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958 |
<p>A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-stree... | 2021-10-01 | Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? | 2021-03-05 | [["2021-03-05", 0.2], ["2021-03-05", 0.6], ["2021-03-05", 0.2], ["2021-03-05", 0.15], ["2021-03-05", 0.12], ["2021-03-06", 0.1], ["2021-03-06", 0.11], ["2021-03-06", 0.12], ["2021-03-06", 0.11], ["2021-03-06", 0.1], ["2021-03-06", 0.1], ["2021-03-06", 0.1], ["2021-03-06", 0.085], ["2021-03-06", 0.1], ["2021-03-07", 0.0... | ["https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2020/33-10906.pdf", "https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/michael-burry-says-he-was-subpoenaed-by-the-sec-as-gamestop-saga-drags-on.html", "https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/gary-gensler-sec-chairman/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archegos_Capital_Management", "https://nysba.... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-01-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621 |
<p>Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (<a href="https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/06/russian-forces-pound-donetsk-with-greatest-brutality-ukrainian-authorities-say" target="_blank">EuroNews</a>, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/... | 2023-01-26 | Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | 2022-11-11 | [["2022-11-11", 0.385], ["2022-11-11", 0.4033], ["2022-11-11", 0.272], ["2022-11-11", 0.2714], ["2022-11-12", 0.2478], ["2022-11-12", 0.2136], ["2022-11-12", 0.2242], ["2022-11-12", 0.2115], ["2022-11-13", 0.2092], ["2022-11-13", 0.1836], ["2022-11-13", 0.1853], ["2022-11-13", 0.1781], ["2022-11-13", 0.1813], ["2022-11... | ["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suz3jeBQHoI", "https://www.rferl.org/a/inside-ukraines-artyomsalt-salt-mine/29993212.html", "https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-12-2023", "https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/p_nqzk2rykuc... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2021-12-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010 |
<p>The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2021/may/statement-ambassador-katherine-tai-covid-19-trips-waiver" target="_blank">USTR.gov</a>, <a href="h... | 2021-12-14 | Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology? | 2021-05-14 | [["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-14", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-15", 0.0], ["2021-05-16", 0.025], ["2021-05-16", 0.05], [... | ["https://www.economist.com/business/2021/05/08/america-wants-to-waive-patent-protection-for-vaccines", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/us-germany-rift-covid-vaccine-patent-waivers", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/06/03/seven-reasons-eu-wrong-oppose-trips-waiver", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2023-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2668 |
<p>The city of Miami, Florida, is in a race with other mid-sized US cities to attract VC investment (<a href="https://nonrival.substack.com/p/will-miamis-tech-boom-last" target="_blank">Nonrival</a>, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using PitchBook-... | 2023-08-18 | Will Miami rank among the top 7 US metro areas by total venture capital (VC) invested in the first half of 2023? | 2022-12-09 | [["2022-12-09", 0.51], ["2022-12-09", 0.51], ["2022-12-09", 0.43], ["2022-12-09", 0.5367], ["2022-12-09", 0.4525], ["2022-12-09", 0.5], ["2022-12-10", 0.56], ["2022-12-10", 0.5986], ["2022-12-10", 0.5613], ["2022-12-10", 0.61], ["2022-12-10", 0.6111], ["2022-12-10", 0.589], ["2022-12-10", 0.5773], ["2022-12-10", 0.5764... | ["https://us.cnn.com/2023/01/15/opinions/crypto-miami-sam-bankman-fried-cline-ctrp/index.html", "https://www.ey.com/en_us/growth/venture-capital/q3-2022-venture-capital-investment-trends", "https://refreshmiami.com/flow-of-miami-metro-vc-is-strong-in-q3-and-you-can-thank-adam-neumann-for-that/", "https://refreshmiami.c... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2022-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2557 |
<p>Background checks for gun purchases have fallen from historic highs in 2020 and 2021, but remain above pre-pandemic levels (<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/gun-sales-finally-decline-january-2022-recent-record-pace-200340" target="_blank">National Interest</a>). The outcome will be determined us... | 2022-11-03 | Will more than 2,500,000 federal firearm background checks be initiated in the US in October 2022? | 2022-09-23 | [["2022-09-26", 0.45], ["2022-09-26", 0.725], ["2022-09-26", 0.5167], ["2022-09-26", 0.5075], ["2022-09-26", 0.52], ["2022-09-26", 0.5], ["2022-09-26", 0.5186], ["2022-09-26", 0.5488], ["2022-09-26", 0.5278], ["2022-09-26", 0.565], ["2022-09-27", 0.5955], ["2022-09-27", 0.5917], ["2022-09-27", 0.5962], ["2022-09-27", 0... | ["https://usafacts.org/data/topics/security-safety/crime-and-justice/firearms/firearm-background-checks/?utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=ND-StatsData&msclkid=008da85b1b0119b7881fcb62948729c0", "https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/23/visa-amex-guns-republicans-00058381", "https://www.gjopen.com... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2022-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084 |
<p>Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (<a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-ethiopia-military-solution-gerd-dispute" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-fm-slams... | 2022-01-02 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022? | 2021-07-23 | [["2021-07-23", 0.05], ["2021-07-23", 0.025], ["2021-07-23", 0.05], ["2021-07-23", 0.03], ["2021-07-24", 0.01], ["2021-07-24", 0.03], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.05], ["2021-07-24", 0.04], ["2021-07-... | ["https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2021/09/16/egypt-says-un-statement-on-nile-dam-forces-ethiopia-to-be-seriously-involved/", "https://russiancouncil.ru/en/blogs/andrew-korybko/will-us-sanctions-against-ethiopia-provide-russia-with-regional-openin/", "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/6/egypt-angry-ethiopia-res... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2024-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2732 |
<p>Protests in Peru have continued since President Castillo was removed from office by the Congress, with protests calling for, among other things, President Dina Boluarte to resign (<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63895505" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/boluart... | 2024-01-01 | Will Dina Boluarte cease to be the president of Peru before 1 January 2024? | 2023-01-26 | [["2023-01-27", 1.0], ["2023-01-27", 0.875], ["2023-01-27", 0.875], ["2023-01-27", 0.9133], ["2023-01-27", 0.8975], ["2023-01-28", 0.904], ["2023-01-28", 0.92], ["2023-01-28", 0.9286], ["2023-01-28", 0.9325], ["2023-01-29", 0.9289], ["2023-01-29", 0.906], ["2023-01-29", 0.8236], ["2023-01-29", 0.8383], ["2023-01-30", 0... | ["https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Peru-Extends-Emergency-State-for-30-Days-to-Contain-Protests-20230713-0009.html", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/peru-s-president-is-loved-by-ceos-hated-by-mostly-everyone-else#xj4y7vzkg", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/peru-s-president-is-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
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