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forecasting

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mani-q86JQrfLpL3NsiHk7UNn
Will LeBron James ever play an NBA game with his son Bronny?
LeBron himself has said it could happen.
2022-11-13T12:13:14
2024-10-07T12:34:53
2024-10-07T12:34:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8sVvqakNTDl3HPtvklGW
Will Lex Fridman interview Vitali Klitschko by the end of 2024?
Vitali Klitschko is the Mayor of Kyiv and former heavyweight champion of the world. [image]
2022-11-13T12:01:13
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:29:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LxS4Sj3TgnIrhN1Yt39u
Will the Russia Ukraine war end by 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-13T10:57:56
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T22:02:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pcuPHJIGUqi2cZfUziSy
Will Taylor Swift's next album (of new music) be stylized in lowercase?
Taylor Swift (2006) Fearless (2008) Speak Now (2010) Red (2012) 1989 (2014) reputation (2017) Lover (2019) folklore (2020) evermore (2020) Midnights (2022) ??? If it starts with a non-letter symbol, like 1989 does, this market will resolve N/A. I will extend market close until the next album is announced.
2022-11-13T09:34:58
2024-02-05T16:23:26
2024-02-05T16:23:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CzpuFTO54zLMnFLD2NYv
Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-13T08:36:06
2024-03-30T20:59:00
2024-04-09T20:34:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-agsKbox6JDC9ro7VIXNL
Will Donald Trump Create His Own Party for the 2024 Election?
Resolved "YES" If Trump either creates his own party or runs under an independent party.
2022-11-13T05:32:24
2024-07-28T08:28:48
2024-07-28T08:28:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-T9IFFioQIxpJOoNq4Rd5
Will any AI startup founded during 2023 get more than $1B in funding during 2023?
Intended to only include startups which focus primarily on AI, as opposed to startups in some other area that happen to also have an AI aspect. Includes both capabilities and alignment orgs. Funding can be over multiple rounds, the total amount is considered. Must be public information.
2022-11-12T23:49:12
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T17:04:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zWtvhd0FTqqUo3NWN9lj
Will Joe Biden issue more than 175 Executive Orders during his first term?
Resolves based on data found here: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders 104 as of November 13, 2022.
2022-11-12T21:58:54
2025-01-20T09:00:00
2025-02-01T22:53:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sErnqUNK3ytKfKH8jHsv
Will MrGirl be arrested before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-12T20:55:59
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T09:49:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZKie1lCty0Qphwrhp8Sw
Will Thunderbolt Ross become the Red Hulk in "Captain America: Brave New World"?
Appearance in a trailer suffices for YES.
2022-11-12T19:00:27
2024-08-10T23:48:14
2024-08-10T23:48:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xeITCPvgSE0K7ZBOM4dg
Will Ukraine recapture the city of Melitopol by March 1, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-12T15:29:32
2023-03-01T15:59:00
2023-03-03T17:15:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ke318HMnousSkMBLmIC1
Will Lex Fridman interview Steve Bannon before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-12T15:26:52
2023-12-31T20:13:32
2023-12-31T20:13:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YKafbSRUkvt6e0FSxy9x
Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-12T15:26:19
2023-12-31T20:14:19
2023-12-31T20:14:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lk0fi7Cd28d1oy0w28hz
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-12T14:03:31
2024-11-05T00:00:00
2024-11-06T16:09:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6x932BhYe6QCTWFXCexK
Will Argentina join BRICS by the end of 2023?
Context: Argentina formalizes its BRICS membership application.
2022-11-12T07:40:17
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2024-01-01T05:50:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Anbz970Gh7GVuNJfccn3
Will Vladimir Putin appear on the Lex Fridman podcast?
This question resolves positively if Lex Fridman posts an episode that features Vladimir Putin as the guest before January 1, 2024. It does not resolve positively if a conversation takes place but is not recorded and released for a general audience. Resolution source: https://lexfridman.com/podcast/ Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-12T06:30:14
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T01:29:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iKge3PB0SnnPqnnxDXZm
Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023?
A ceasefire beginning in 20223 and ending in 2024 counts. A ceasefire announced in 2023 that will not begin until 2024 does not count. NB: Orthodox Christians in both Russia and Ukraine celebrate Christmas on January 7.
2022-11-12T02:40:41
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T16:09:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GpOL7kx3XmYyUeBrDu7F
Will substantial evidence emerge by 2025 that the FTX Future Fund team had strong suspicions of fraudulent activities at FTX before November 2022?
The FTX Future Fund team had five members: Nick Beckstead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Avital Balwit, William MacAskill and Ketan Ramakrishnan. The question will resolve positively if substantial evidence emerges before start of year 2025 that at least one of these people subjectively placed the odds of substantial fraud at FTX or Alameda Research above 25% at any time before start of month November 2022. The question will resolve negatively otherwise. Resolution is necessarily somewhat subjective here, so I'll try to give some concrete examples about what would or would not suffice for this question to resolve positively. You can request further clarifications in the comments as you please. For the question to resolve positively, it's not required that these people expected something of the scale or severity of what actually happened: any suspicion that FTX was deploying customer assets in risky investments via Alameda despite their public commitment to not do so would suffice to resolve this market positively, as one example. Suspicions that lack concrete details can be sufficient. For instance, if chat logs between two members of the Future Fund team were discovered that showed them discussing the possibility of fraud at FTX in a way that put serious credence on it, despite not having any specific details about the nature of the fraud, this question would resolve positively. If explicit probabilities are not directly specified in the available evidence, then I will rely on my best judgment to estimate some implied probability based on how seriously the possibility of fraud is being treated in the available evidence. Note that positive resolution requires suspicion of fraud. If we discovered evidence that the Future Fund team had moral reservations about using a cryptocurrency exchange to fund EA causes, but had no actual suspicions of fraud, this would not be sufficient by itself to resolve this question positively. If I believe that the members of the Future Fund team suspected fraudulent activities at FTX, but this belief is not supported by any material evidence accessible to the traders on this market, this question will resolve negatively despite my personal beliefs. The question is not about what I will think but about what concrete evidence will be discovered.
2022-11-12T02:28:58
2024-12-31T13:00:00
2024-12-31T14:00:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JjeqWMfMzwrUMdHvn8Io
Will Destiny go back on The Lex Fridman Podcast before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-11T22:41:50
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2024-01-01T09:47:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HxEs54m0OS8BwU127wf5
Will a major crypto founder be murdered before Dec 31st 2023?
There are news of crypto vigilantes going to Dubai to chase DoKwon. They aren't publicly seeking to kill him, and I doubt they are, but it's reasonable to think someone else might be. The project (either a coin, either a company) has to be worth $1B at some point to be considered major. This market will be resolved to YES if a major media outlet reports on a famous crypto founder (SBF, DoKwon...) being murdered. The tweet below motivated this market. [tweet] As always, I won't bet.
2022-11-11T22:29:12
2023-12-31T18:56:00
2023-12-31T20:55:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GTa0vvx6WnuTq3gZJljn
Will Elon Musk testify to the U.S. Congress in 2023?
I won't bet. Nov 12, 3:36pm: Will Elon Musk depose to the U.S. Congress in 2023? → Will Elon Musk testify to the U.S. Congress in 2023?
2022-11-11T21:43:22
2023-12-30T19:00:00
2023-12-30T20:18:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BDkDL87e4vRgEtxr3b6P
Will there be an SBF criminal trial?
Resolves NO if otherwise settled without trial, or charges pass statue of limitations or etc.
2022-11-11T17:34:46
2023-11-02T01:50:18
2023-11-02T01:50:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2oLp0rcOSb11Cbw8ukGa
Sam Bankman-Fried will be convicted before Donald Trump
Close date updated to 2023-07-04 6:59 pm
2022-11-11T17:06:08
2023-11-02T18:22:27
2023-11-02T18:22:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se
By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?
Resolves very subjectively, I'm not even going to bother to try to define this exhaustivly. Feel free to ask about hypothetical scenarios and I'll answer how I'd judge them. I'll add clarifications to this description as they're worked out. "A leader in EA" refers to anyone who has significant influence/social status within the EA community or has the power to move large quantities of EA-allocated funds. Heads of EA organizations, writers of EA-aligned books, grantmakers, etc. I'll be fairly liberal with this definition; I'll lean towards more people being "leaders" rather than fewer. (It does not include SBF or anyone else who could be considered FTX/Alameda leadership.) The "unethical behavior" in question must have been related to fraudulent investiment strategies that involve spending other people's money without their permission. If SBF engaged in unrelated unethical behavior, such as walking past a child drowning in a pond or illegally harvesting organs, that doesn't count for this market. "Cover up" refers to knowing about the unethical behavior and chosing to keep that knowledge private. There doesn't have to have been any particular action taken; inaction is morally equivalent to action, after all. Some clarifications: The EA leader in question must have assigned a decent probability to fraud/theft occurring. It it seems that they had enough evidence to conclude there was fraud happening, but naivety/motiviated reasoning prevented them from realizing it, that does not count as a "cover up". (I won't be too generous with this; if it seems like any reasonable person would have known, yet they still profess innocence, I'll count that as a cover-up.) If they were afraid of retaliation and didn't publicize their concerns out of fear for themselves, that still counts as a cover-up. Any charitable organization where whisleblowers are discouraged that strongly has a serious problem. If they only found out about the fraud after signing an NDA and couldn't legally say anything about it, that does not count as a cover-up on their part. (It would certainly be a cover-up from FTX, but we already know that happened.) After all, the whole point of this scandal is that we don't want EAs breaking laws just to do what they personally think is right. If actions were taken to maintain plausible deniability, or it otherwise seems like they were trying to "avoid finding out" about the fraud, that still counts as a cover up. Bayes cannot be fooled by such games. Market resolves YES if at least one EA leader satisfies these criteria. Multiple "leaders" is not a necessity. I will not be placing any trades in this market. I will discuss my intended resolution with the community here before actually resolving it, to ensure people feel my resolution is reasonable. If anyone wants to submit information completely anonymously, you can do so here.
2022-11-11T16:56:17
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-05-28T19:02:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eCkLML8pfz4eOeaHJTZX
Will MrGirl apologize to Destiny between now and the end of Q1 2023?
The MrGirl bear market has resulted in a tumultuous time for the portfolios of many DGG satellites nearing the end of 2022; will this market recover by way of an apology? (https://manifold.markets/embed/memestiny/destiny-stock-permanent)(https://manifold.markets/embed/memestiny/mrgirl-stock-permanent)
2022-11-11T16:51:08
2023-03-31T16:30:00
2023-04-05T17:58:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ziv1JIqM2uuV4rxayDv1
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao incarcerated before 2026
Resolves as YES if Binance's founder Changpeng Zhao (aka CZ) is arrested or imprisoned in any country before 2026. Data for resolving this claim will come from either CZ's Twitter feed or a reputable news source.
2022-11-11T13:33:28
2024-04-30T14:46:49
2024-04-30T14:46:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aigwAoASjIxRFIP4JHwP
Will SBF receive a jail-free deal?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-11T12:51:23
2024-04-12T18:39:20
2024-04-12T18:39:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fosWzVK9Mxk4Gd5FtF1W
Will SBF spend at least one month in jail?
Related: [markets]
2022-11-11T12:46:27
2023-11-04T16:07:12
2023-11-04T16:07:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Bltwwa9q7N7D6Vbh38A2
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
The war will be considered to have ended in 2024 if a ceasefire beginning in 2024 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2024. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
2022-11-11T12:45:09
2025-01-01T12:09:54
2025-01-01T12:09:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vd5eZv17MG1mq5EP6RcD
Will Biden pardon SBF?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-11T12:31:52
2025-01-21T05:09:38
2025-01-21T05:09:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6dTq1tgXwyyeDBV2U3R9
Will Destiny Wear a Suit Before 2024?
Must be photo or video evidence.
2022-11-11T11:57:09
2023-09-01T18:43:29
2023-09-01T18:43:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zQfiiheTKCQzHwseqand
Will Hasan And Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024?
Doesn't matter whose stream.
2022-11-11T11:31:43
2023-12-31T22:00:00
2024-01-01T09:52:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-URfqSFidVgQNlt2VTBjM
Will Vaush and Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024?
Doesn't matter whose stream.
2022-11-11T11:28:52
2023-10-12T18:58:22
2023-10-12T18:58:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SqnrPzRL7PUbWZNdXUFD
Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?
So we need to hear 5 independent credible accounts of money that was donated by FTX/FTX Foundation or other assocatied orgs either bieng frozen or officially threatened to be frozen by July 2023. So money sent back doesn't count unless someone was legally threatened that it would be frozen if they didn't or that it would be clawed back if they didn't. Edits: This includes clawbacks. Nov 12, 1:56am: Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donationed by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023? → Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023? Mar 6, 3:17pm: Will there be more than 5 accounts of money donated by FTX/ FTX Foundation or associated orgs being frozen in accounts before July 2023? → Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023?
2022-11-11T11:00:31
2023-07-19T16:59:00
2023-07-31T04:32:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GkFnbagXnrJNUj0gDaZM
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2023?
The war will be considered to have ended in 2023 if a ceasefire beginning in 2023 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2023. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire.
2022-11-11T10:56:23
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2023-12-31T21:54:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-u2pFgxac7JEtCS4szKPA
Will Coinbase filed for bankruptcy in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-11T09:12:27
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-02T12:10:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ul1akgpRFBJfgYISb0pR
Given the implosion of FTX, will there be a new round of ACX grants in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-11T05:46:17
2023-06-12T21:14:32
2023-06-12T21:14:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k9Kmj5NpP1YV1VqsD6DU
Will Coinbase suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?
(the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023) Non-"amplified odds" version of https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-coinbase-su Binance versions of this question: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-binance-suspend-withdrawals-fo https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-binance-sus
2022-11-10T18:24:20
2023-12-25T03:42:02
2023-12-25T03:42:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mPVO1hjJNfCkGmK3wVyL
Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?
(the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023) non-"amplified odds" version of https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-binance-sus
2022-11-10T18:22:36
2023-12-25T03:42:15
2023-12-25T03:42:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xu6Qi1wfBQ4Zl3XpMboN
Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-10T15:53:55
2024-11-06T13:47:54
2024-11-06T13:47:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AGsjkj2yNGDsJ2PTB12H
Will Twitter file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2024
Elon Musk Says Twitter Bankruptcy Is Possible https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/ https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/TWTR/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy
2022-11-10T14:42:13
2024-01-01T00:11:25
2024-01-01T00:11:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RG2aK1rxbs4hPH2PYrTK
Will Twitter go bankrupt before 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-10T13:47:42
2024-01-01T01:12:14
2024-01-01T01:12:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KSzyP7dhPRVCrzWCfFPv
Will the Rational Animations Youtube channel have over 200,000 subscribers at the end of 2023?
https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
2022-11-10T12:36:19
2023-12-31T21:00:00
2024-01-02T21:44:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-scae4R7l6ejwK66cc15Q
Will FTX depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23?
Nov 10, 10:53pm: Will depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23? → Will FTX depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23?
2022-11-10T07:04:05
2023-04-22T16:59:00
2023-04-25T01:59:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mYNZJV4SgnCkMeZY5C0H
Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary and claims fraud still took place the market will be resolved Yes If Donald Trump loses and claims election fraud against any other opponent the market will be resolved Yes Anything else will be resolved as No (I.e. If he doesn't run or wins/loses and doesn't claim fraud) Any hinting at fraud before the primary/primaries takes place will not be considered accusations of fraud until after the primary takes place. If lawsuits that specifically target voter fraud are filed the market will be resolved Yes (I.e typical post election lawsuits aren't considered accusations of voter fraud)
2022-11-10T03:06:31
2024-11-04T17:00:00
2024-11-04T20:45:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LCqGYaBLA03Bqf19i2Wo
What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back?
(FTX Intl not FTX US) Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-10T00:07:50
2024-12-28T04:54:59
2024-12-28T04:54:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-N4DVqzTBtNhOYZZmxJMx
AMPLIFIED ODDS 10x: Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023?
(the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023) "Amplified odds" approach copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear-767e27d543c2 This rule resolves YES if the referenced market resolves YES. If the referenced market resolves NO, I will get a random number using a predetermined seed. If it is less than 1 / a, I will resolve NO. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A. This means that, for this rule, you should treat NO as if it is a times less likely to happen than it actually is. For example, if a = 10, and your actual expected outcome is 0.1% YES, 99.9% NO, you should expect this to resolve with probabilities 0.1% YES, 9.999% NO, 89.901% N/A, which means that your price of a YES share should be ~1%. Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/10), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability): 0.1% YES => 1% YES' (actually 0.99%) 0.2% YES => 2% YES' (actually 1.96%) 0.5% YES => 5% YES' 1% YES => 9% YES' 2% YES => 17% YES' 5% YES => 34% YES' 10% YES => 53% YES' 20% YES => 71% YES' 50% YES => 91% YES' This market will resolve if any of the following are true: - If this market reaches its close date It will resolve based on the following decision tree: - If the human operator agrees: --- Amplified odds: ----- If the referenced market resolves YES, resolve YES ----- If it resolved NO, generate a random number using a predetermined seed ------- If the number is less than `1 / a` (10 -> ~0.1), resolve NO ------- Otherwise, resolve N/A ----- Otherwise, resolve to the equivalent price of the reference market - Otherwise, a manually provided value Note that the bot operator reserves the right to resolve contrary to the purely automated rules to preserve the spirit of the market. All resolutions are first verified by the human operator. The operator also reserves the right to trade on this market unless otherwise specified. Even if otherwise specified, the operator reserves the right to buy shares for subsidy or to trade for the purposes of cashing out liquidity.
2022-11-09T20:45:32
2023-12-25T03:51:48
2023-12-25T03:51:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xestQpIKrsT4c1T7MZzU
Will Solana price fall below $5 before 2023?
Solana is one of the top 10 cryptocurrency in 2021, and everyone knows that $SOL is SBF's fave and we can see now SOL is tanking due to FTX insolvency.
2022-11-09T20:33:18
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-01T06:36:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KWWQZ51KWeloGAswMjps
Will SBF be on the lam for most of 2023?
Do Kwon. Su Zhu. Et tu, SBF? Resolves YES if disappears (whether under indictment, investigation, or otherwise no-showing the bankruptcy hearings or any other major events); PROB in close cases; NO if captured, in attendance, or generally locatable.
2022-11-09T13:29:23
2023-11-02T17:46:07
2023-11-02T17:46:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JHETn6rcdSDUmQhMczK8
Will SBF be imprisoned before 2030
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-09T13:15:26
2024-02-12T20:51:27
2024-02-12T20:51:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rEHv8m4j5VIEOZ4Kel0g
Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024?
Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the presidential election in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. (If DeSantis becomes President by any other means, e.g. through presidential succession without being directly elected, that will not count towards question resolution.)
2022-11-09T12:28:34
2024-11-06T07:01:59
2024-11-06T07:01:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-acN2WcLBJhxRhz4WW0t4
Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-09T08:39:26
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:03:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M
Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024?
FINAL ULTIMATE EDIT SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO READ THE BLOCK OF TEXT BELOW: Destiny has said he will be submitting the paperwork for divorce. If the divorce goes through legally BEFORE 2025, this market will resolve "YES", if it does not, it will resolve "NO". Keep in mind I don't know exactly how the divorce process works or when it is legally finalized, but since the information is public, I assume people will link legal documents in the comments as they release. Good luck! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Original Description: Will resolve if a divorce finalizes legally. Will not resolve if they just break up. IF they announce divorce before 2024, I'll hold off resolving it either happens legally or they get back together, meaning if they announce divorce before 2023 and legalize it in 2024, I'll still resolve for "Yes." melW Edit 12/7/23: It seems Destiny and Melina have separated in some way, the message above will still hold true in the best way possible, so I will clarify here. If they stay separated for the rest of the year and never mention divorce, I will resolve NO. If they say they are proceeding with a divorce, I will wait until the end of 2024, and if a divorce happens, I will resolve YES- if it does not, I will resolve NO. What I think is most likely is they will be ambiguous around the term "divorce" for the rest of the month, maybe mention it half jokingly a couple times. In this case it would be up to me to decide if it counts as announcing divorce, but I'll let you know now I will be pretty liberal with the "announcement", if it feels like they are going to get a divorce based on what they have said, I will probably wait it out- this part is completely my digression so I will not be betting in the market. Edit 12/8/23: This clip counts as announcing the divorce https://clips.twitch.tv/PlacidDifferentKimchiMau5-SAyRYV8XYclwZrw0 . This means if the divorce happens legally in 2024, this will resolve YES, if it does not happen legally in 2024 it will resolve NO. FYI: I have no idea how a divorce works legally or if there are different stages or when it counts as finalized so if you want it to be resolved spam pdfs in the comments as they come out good luck :)
2022-11-08T15:42:47
2024-01-25T14:43:17
2024-01-25T14:43:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mrrxcOsJVTRyt3JrHcCY
Will SBF be a billionaire according to Forbes on Apr 1st 2023?
Resolves according to https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/?sh=356ac4134449 or equivalent forbes url at whatever time I look it up on April 1st 2023
2022-11-08T13:37:03
2023-03-29T15:00:00
2023-04-01T15:28:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IiJt1CkRDDeHEQDnPQ5f
SBF convicted of a felony before 2024
Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried in absentia. 2026 version: (https://manifold.markets/embed/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20) Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-08T13:34:48
2023-11-03T11:30:51
2023-11-03T11:30:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4kRrqbSM9l1s7aKOy7c7
Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $300mn in 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-08T09:10:30
2023-10-28T22:35:26
2023-10-28T22:35:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VHdhgJGxHL1TZ71ZJChV
Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $600mn in 2023?
Nov 8, 5:00pm: Will FTXFF spend more than $600mn in 2023? → Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $600mn in 2023?
2022-11-08T08:56:05
2023-10-28T22:35:33
2023-10-28T22:35:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S4vX0HkG12LH8zCm4S9c
Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $100mn in 2023?
Nov 8, 5:00pm: Will the FTXFF spend more than $100mn in 2023? → Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $100mn in 2023?
2022-11-08T08:55:46
2023-10-25T06:17:47
2023-10-25T06:17:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gxOO6D1pC5wutgZC8EH6
Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023?
This market will resolve to "YES" if by Dec 31 2023, Twitter will report a major incident (Degraded Performance, Partial Outage or Major Outage) of one of its systems. Resolved by https://api.twitterstat.us/ Nov 18, 1:27pm: Will Twitter report a system incident/downtime by the end of 2023? → Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023? Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-08T07:23:25
2023-09-15T11:13:43
2023-09-15T11:13:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Oqj5YQyoZLzHNcGTRvro
Will GiveWell feature any anxiety or depression-related interventions in its All Grants Fund by Jun 30, 2023?
Considering all grants made or recommended according to: https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants#Database_of_all_GiveWell_grants
2022-11-08T06:15:39
2023-06-30T19:59:00
2023-07-01T03:09:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NSYhqgr1YMFgmt7mCi1s
Will China stop quarantining incoming travellers by June 30, 2023?
While Hong Kong lifted its compulsory quarantine requirement for travelers outside of China in September 2022, such requirements remain for travelers to the PRC mainland (Government of Hong Kong, US Embassy in China, US News & World Report, CNN). For the purposes of this question, "incoming travellers" means people coming to China from anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that the PRC will cease to require travellers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 30 June 2023 would not count. Nov 8, 4:47pm: Will China stop quarantining incoming travellers by June 30, 2022? → Will China stop quarantining incoming travellers by June 30, 2023?
2022-11-08T04:55:42
2023-06-06T05:02:45
2023-06-06T05:02:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-AyaIS00aEDyQnR1Y2ptb
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
Resolves YES if confirmed that Robin Hanson created a market on Manifold by end of the 2023. related: [markets] Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-08T04:14:30
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-01T05:39:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Sdh6X8nhjULSPJ4hoyZf
Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023?
If you're required to pay to use Twitter as it currently exists (even if you have some free time), this market will be solved to YES. I won't bet. Nov 8, 1:39am: Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2022? → Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023?
2022-11-07T20:32:13
2023-06-30T19:59:00
2023-06-30T23:09:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QfzdjXH9kzHUWEMPTbhb
Will Trump be disqualified from the presidency on insurrection grounds
Resolves YES iff this challenge prevents Trump from running
2022-11-07T13:36:37
2024-11-05T20:59:00
2024-11-07T21:33:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KJnuSifh7ctWRsnTWAtJ
Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following: PCE Inflation excluding Food and Energy is below 2% YoY Unemployment is below 5.5% (2% above the recent low of 3.5%) This market will also resolve to NO if at any time between Nov 2022 and June 2024 the Unemployment level reads above 5.5%. Creator policy: I won't bet.
2022-11-07T06:01:53
2024-07-15T19:59:00
2024-07-26T06:47:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZjVi7fvnhEzsnjVBv0Dp
Will Destiny be on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023?
Destiny's growth on YouTube, recent appearnces on multiple differnet podcasts and specifically his upcoming appearnce on the Lex Fridman Podcast has made this an actual possibility. If Destiny appears as a guest on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023 the market will resolve to YES. If Destiny does not appear as a guest on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023 the market will resolve to NO. Joe Rogan appearing on Destiny's show would resolve to NO, unless Joe Rogan uploads it on his channel/platform as a podcast episode. For practical reasons only the full video, or video trailer, of the podcast being by the end of 2023 will count. This is so that the video of them together and timestamp of it is clear proof. Tweets or on stream comments will NOT apply as there is more ambiguity (see Destiny's Jordan Peterson debate announcement).
2022-11-07T02:42:27
2023-12-31T10:29:00
2024-01-01T12:17:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q86BQOAJKZ95FO8prYO2
Will Destiny have 1 million subscribers on Youtube by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-06T15:19:15
2024-01-01T00:00:00
2024-01-02T16:23:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GZSMgsRaA0BRAyBN9klh
Will Meta (Facebook) report any earning loss in any quarter reports of 2023?
Will use scheduled earning calls as reference, if any earning period reports negative cashflow, it would resolve to yes.
2022-11-05T13:51:27
2024-02-01T16:56:00
2024-02-01T19:57:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K2YJ77WO1CiNkf21NIcK
Will AAPL hit $200 before hitting $100?
Will resolve YES when AAPL (Nasdaq) closes above $200. Will resolve NO when AAPL (Nasdaq) hits $100. Close date updated to 2025-01-01 12:59 am
2022-11-05T09:58:49
2024-06-11T17:30:27
2024-06-11T17:30:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2X8C1ioH8gQEWWpOxjVj
Will Twitter make more revenue in 2023 than 2022?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-04T20:03:39
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2024-01-01T00:28:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dcfs4LsWmtCuaaURtw9T
Will Boeing's Starliner carry crew to orbit by the end of June 2023?
Resolves YES if a Starliner spacecraft manufactured by Boeing is in orbit around Earth with at least one human on board at any time before market close, NO if this does not happen by market close. The crew flight test was most recently pushed to April. Will it slip another quarter? https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2022/11/03/nasa-updates-commercial-crew-flight-manifest-to-space-station/
2022-11-04T19:11:55
2023-06-30T20:59:00
2023-06-30T22:15:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Mobo1jxLhZqnFJhWl6xY
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Trump is President again?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-04T17:29:00
2025-01-27T14:04:47
2025-01-27T14:04:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1pSCVBwxjPwzb0CIL67m
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be married at the time of election
This question is about wheather the winning canidate has an active legally reconginzed marriage at the time of election. Piror martial status(divorce, windowed etc),civil unions and partnerships will reslove to a no. Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm
2022-11-03T13:18:33
2024-12-03T11:15:25
2024-12-03T11:15:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KYnZvkTTNQzg5VYVIDPg
Will the UK fall into a recession lasting at least 2 years (longest since Great Depression), as predicted by the Bank of England?
Resolves YES if the UK experiences a recession lasting at least 2 years, starting in 2022 or 2023. Otherwise NO. Resolves according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom or official data. BBC says: Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession. This is somewhat hyperbolic: The Bank of England predicts a '"very challenging" two-year slump' which would make it the "longest recession since records began" in the 1920s (the Great Depression lasted about 2 years).
2022-11-03T12:54:19
2024-07-24T07:58:43
2024-07-24T07:58:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-N3QG77Qz57OIcJ3tc3te
Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024?
The spirit of this question is if, before 2024, @SpacedOutMatt's criticism will be judged roughly correct. le will GiveWell reduce some kind of median number for long term effectiveness average from 7.4x to below 6.5x, before the end of next year? If ambiguous I will decide or just resolve ambiguous. https://twitter.com/spacedoutmatt/status/1588223097945133057?s=46&t=Qh69DMp0w-avlgMInAHYQA (GiveWell has a number of cost effectiveness numbers for each intervention ie it might be different for Kenya than anohter country. This isn't about that it is about Matt's specific criticism)
2022-11-03T10:47:44
2023-12-31T15:59:00
2024-01-07T14:26:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-20l847MyKQdWLyJoqrEG
Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia by the end of June 2023?
If the mainstream press reports news of Iran making a military attack into Saudi territory, this market will resolve to YES. Creator policy: I won't bet.
2022-11-03T10:16:29
2023-06-30T19:59:00
2023-06-30T23:09:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FsOlnM67oIPHqcRn2DDL
Will any arrest warrant be issued against Bolsonaro by the end of 2023?
Related markets [markets] Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm
2022-11-02T18:14:49
2023-12-31T19:59:00
2023-12-31T21:31:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9f5UgI6dWT9J2eqGMw4o
Will Bolsonaro flee Brazil to avoid being arrested by the end of 2023?
Related markets: [markets]
2022-11-02T17:49:46
2023-12-31T19:59:00
2023-12-31T21:31:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dPwQ4AcF4010oq707nYe
Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023?
Nov 2, 8:04pm: Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2022? → Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023?
2022-11-02T17:04:31
2023-12-31T04:59:00
2023-12-31T21:06:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YvZMbbNxks2oHd58iPPy
Will Twitter acquire the US assets of TikTok by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-02T17:01:37
2023-12-31T13:55:50
2023-12-31T13:55:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sZFO9PUtG8W9FGrm6lPC
Will MBS become King of Saudi Arabia by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-02T16:59:34
2023-12-31T14:08:01
2023-12-31T14:08:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7
Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress?
Resolves YES if Bibi, presumably the next prime minister of Israel (5th time) is invited to address the US Congress (2nd time). (https://www.youtube.com/embed/wRf1cdw4IAY)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-bibi-netanyahu-address-the-118)
2022-11-02T15:03:02
2024-05-31T14:15:11
2024-05-31T14:15:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-at4SfIwNAVDpHZCMUkQf
Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-02T09:37:27
2024-01-01T14:04:16
2024-01-01T14:04:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-J7EV7HCBKQkjr41ZPXaf
Will Biden be impeached by 2025?
If the House of Representatives impeaches Joe Biden during his current term, this market will resolve to YES. This market will resolve to NO before the end date if the House is no longer able to impeach Biden (most notably, he no longer is the POTUS). I won't bet.
2022-11-02T07:05:42
2025-01-20T18:59:00
2025-01-21T20:05:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yPbxyTVgJFOgc19u90gG
Will Elon Musk father another child by August 2023?
real money original: https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023 This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by August 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk. If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by August 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to “No”. Any child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution. For the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the nine living children confirmed at the time of this market’s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market. -So far, list of Musk's children include: Twins (from Shivon Zilis) Exa Dark Sideræl (Grimes) X AE A-XII (Grimes) Kai, Saxon and Damian (Justine Wilson) Griffin and Vivian (Justine Wilson) Close date updated to 2022-11-02 2:38 pm Close date updated to 2023-08-31 2:38 pm
2022-11-02T06:37:11
2023-08-31T05:38:00
2023-08-31T08:06:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-exgdTnXPY4A5T3NQLoyj
Will Hunter Biden experience a major relapse while his father is president?
Resolves YES if it happens.
2022-11-02T05:47:22
2025-01-20T08:59:00
2025-02-01T22:55:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YsXzFP8eEfkUOmKorCKG
Will FED pivot by Q4 2023?
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to "YES" if by December 31, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
2022-11-02T05:37:06
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2024-01-02T07:39:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qncQcNHWtbDuTQyyHRhJ
Will FED pivot by Q3 2023?
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to "YES" if by September 30, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
2022-11-02T05:36:30
2023-09-30T14:59:00
2023-10-04T19:14:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DkXFZtb2MoyXdPmUKC2L
Will FED pivot by Q2 2023?
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to "YES" if by June 30, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Related markets: [markets][markets]
2022-11-02T05:35:48
2023-06-30T14:59:00
2023-07-03T01:30:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ALQigAVH25YML6Tee50z
Will FED pivot by Q1 2023?
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to "YES" if by March 31, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
2022-11-02T05:35:24
2023-03-31T14:59:00
2023-04-01T03:38:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2ZxO9lmrBy76JrxtvDBg
Will Mike Pence be the Republican nominee?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-11-01T22:59:58
2024-07-17T04:53:14
2024-07-17T04:53:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SZRFPPoMSS6yfrwxdJ7p
Will Moldova join the EU by 2025
This question resolves to "YES" if the republic of Moldova joins the EU by direct ascension, or by joining the republic of Romania by 2025
2022-11-01T15:50:10
2024-12-31T04:59:00
2025-01-05T15:26:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jEfXPGbQNDIsXVsgvmCq
Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance before 2024?
As part of the merger agreement, top Twitter executives were set to receive severance payments aka "golden parachutes" if they were fired. But Elon Musk is trying to get out of this agreement by claiming to fire them "for cause". Resolves YES if Twitter ends up paying Parag Agrawal the full agreed amount of $57.4m, by end of 2023, according to reliable media reports. Resolves N/A if it is substantially unclear whether such payment happened. Otherwise resolves NO. (Note: if the full payment is made, it counts even if Agrawal has to pay legal fees to force it to happen. Partial payment would not count.) Background https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/technology/twitter-layoffs-musk-jobs.html Mr. Musk also appears unlikely to pay the golden parachutes that the fired top executives of Twitter were set to receive. Under the merger agreement, those executives — including Parag Agrawal, the chief executive — had been set to receive compensation of $20 million to $60 million if they were fired. But Mr. Musk terminated the executives “for cause,” meaning he did it because he alleged he had justification, which may void that agreement, two people with knowledge of the matter said. Those executives, who also include the former chief financial officer Ned Segal, the former general counsel Sean Edgett, and the former top policy and legal executive Vijaya Gadde, are deliberating their next steps, one person said. Matt Levine writes in https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/matt-levines-money-stuff-elon-musk-is-busy-with-twitter I don’t know if you noticed, but I have spent much of the last six months writing about how Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, doesn’t really care about his contractual obligations. I want to make a couple of points here. One is, I cannot believe we’re doing this again. Another point is that he absolutely did not fire them for cause, as you can easily tell by reading their employment agreements. [1]  Here is the definition of “cause”: Source for the amounts: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/29/twitter-executives-payouts-musk/ Former chief executive Parag Agrawal will receive $57.4 million, former chief financial officer Ned Segal gets $44.5 million, and former head of legal policy, trust and safety Vijaya Gadde will receive $20 million, Equilar said, citing U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Added "full" to title to make it more explicit (no change to the resolution criteria): Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the agreed severance? → Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance?
2022-11-01T14:33:43
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-01T11:17:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0qpbcAkHCgYvIkWFGlhA
Will FedNow launch in 2023
FedNow is the Federal Reserve's new proposed system to handle bank-to-bank transfers faster and more efficiently than ACH, detailed here: https://www.frbservices.org/financial-service… The service is slated to launch sometime in 2023. However, it is an open question both whether that deadline will be met. Question will resolve YES if FedNow is generally available by the end of 2023.
2022-11-01T10:10:07
2023-09-04T22:14:08
2023-09-04T22:14:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-B8PbAqEJsmgpnqzkHE9g
Will Elon Musk be SpaceX CEO through 2023?
If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of SpaceX through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes". If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
2022-11-01T08:11:40
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T05:40:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xYRoSpdVGD5TzHCYiw7C
Will Elon Musk be Twitter's CEO through 2023?
If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Twitter through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes". If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No". related: [markets]other 2023 Elon CEO markets: [markets]
2022-11-01T08:09:24
2023-06-06T14:39:44
2023-06-06T14:39:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PkROncBBtV79XWyEcfC7
Will Elon Musk be Tesla's CEO through 2023?
If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Tesla through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes". If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No". related markets: [markets]
2022-11-01T08:08:15
2023-12-30T20:59:00
2024-01-01T04:52:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MRGBwOHZyEzZ3DvWqWM3
Will Twitter IPO in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-31T10:07:02
2024-12-30T09:22:33
2024-12-30T09:22:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ueyqSEj4dYvTupdrlEyl
Will Lula da Silva still be alive through the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2022-10-31T08:07:07
2023-12-31T20:13:36
2023-12-31T20:13:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9jmq5qAaWSJaGH8ejhLh
Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of March?
A duplicate of this market, with a different date. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
2022-10-30T13:13:45
2023-03-31T20:59:00
2023-03-31T21:34:59
no
MANIFOLD