id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-q86JQrfLpL3NsiHk7UNn | Will LeBron James ever play an NBA game with his son Bronny? | LeBron himself has said it could happen. | 2022-11-13T12:13:14 | 2024-10-07T12:34:53 | 2024-10-07T12:34:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8sVvqakNTDl3HPtvklGW | Will Lex Fridman interview Vitali Klitschko by the end of 2024? | Vitali Klitschko is the Mayor of Kyiv and former heavyweight champion of the world.
[image] | 2022-11-13T12:01:13 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:29:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LxS4Sj3TgnIrhN1Yt39u | Will the Russia Ukraine war end by 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-13T10:57:56 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:02:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pcuPHJIGUqi2cZfUziSy | Will Taylor Swift's next album (of new music) be stylized in lowercase? | Taylor Swift (2006)
Fearless (2008)
Speak Now (2010)
Red (2012)
1989 (2014)
reputation (2017)
Lover (2019)
folklore (2020)
evermore (2020)
Midnights (2022)
???
If it starts with a non-letter symbol, like 1989 does, this market will resolve N/A. I will extend market close until the next album is announced. | 2022-11-13T09:34:58 | 2024-02-05T16:23:26 | 2024-02-05T16:23:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CzpuFTO54zLMnFLD2NYv | Will Vladimir Putin be reelected President of Russia in March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-13T08:36:06 | 2024-03-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-09T20:34:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-agsKbox6JDC9ro7VIXNL | Will Donald Trump Create His Own Party for the 2024 Election? | Resolved "YES" If Trump either creates his own party or runs under an independent party. | 2022-11-13T05:32:24 | 2024-07-28T08:28:48 | 2024-07-28T08:28:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T9IFFioQIxpJOoNq4Rd5 | Will any AI startup founded during 2023 get more than $1B in funding during 2023? | Intended to only include startups which focus primarily on AI, as opposed to startups in some other area that happen to also have an AI aspect. Includes both capabilities and alignment orgs. Funding can be over multiple rounds, the total amount is considered. Must be public information. | 2022-11-12T23:49:12 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T17:04:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zWtvhd0FTqqUo3NWN9lj | Will Joe Biden issue more than 175 Executive Orders during his first term? | Resolves based on data found here: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders
104 as of November 13, 2022. | 2022-11-12T21:58:54 | 2025-01-20T09:00:00 | 2025-02-01T22:53:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sErnqUNK3ytKfKH8jHsv | Will MrGirl be arrested before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-12T20:55:59 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:49:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZKie1lCty0Qphwrhp8Sw | Will Thunderbolt Ross become the Red Hulk in "Captain America: Brave New World"? | Appearance in a trailer suffices for YES. | 2022-11-12T19:00:27 | 2024-08-10T23:48:14 | 2024-08-10T23:48:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xeITCPvgSE0K7ZBOM4dg | Will Ukraine recapture the city of Melitopol by March 1, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-12T15:29:32 | 2023-03-01T15:59:00 | 2023-03-03T17:15:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ke318HMnousSkMBLmIC1 | Will Lex Fridman interview Steve Bannon before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-12T15:26:52 | 2023-12-31T20:13:32 | 2023-12-31T20:13:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YKafbSRUkvt6e0FSxy9x | Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-12T15:26:19 | 2023-12-31T20:14:19 | 2023-12-31T20:14:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lk0fi7Cd28d1oy0w28hz | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-12T14:03:31 | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2024-11-06T16:09:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6x932BhYe6QCTWFXCexK | Will Argentina join BRICS by the end of 2023? | Context: Argentina formalizes its BRICS membership application. | 2022-11-12T07:40:17 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:50:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Anbz970Gh7GVuNJfccn3 | Will Vladimir Putin appear on the Lex Fridman podcast? | This question resolves positively if Lex Fridman posts an episode that features Vladimir Putin as the guest before January 1, 2024. It does not resolve positively if a conversation takes place but is not recorded and released for a general audience.
Resolution source: https://lexfridman.com/podcast/
Close date updat... | 2022-11-12T06:30:14 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T01:29:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iKge3PB0SnnPqnnxDXZm | Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023? | A ceasefire beginning in 20223 and ending in 2024 counts. A ceasefire announced in 2023 that will not begin until 2024 does not count. NB: Orthodox Christians in both Russia and Ukraine celebrate Christmas on January 7. | 2022-11-12T02:40:41 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T16:09:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GpOL7kx3XmYyUeBrDu7F | Will substantial evidence emerge by 2025 that the FTX Future Fund team had strong suspicions of fraudulent activities at FTX before November 2022? | The FTX Future Fund team had five members: Nick Beckstead, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Avital Balwit, William MacAskill and Ketan Ramakrishnan. The question will resolve positively if substantial evidence emerges before start of year 2025 that at least one of these people subjectively placed the odds of substantial fraud at... | 2022-11-12T02:28:58 | 2024-12-31T13:00:00 | 2024-12-31T14:00:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JjeqWMfMzwrUMdHvn8Io | Will Destiny go back on The Lex Fridman Podcast before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-11T22:41:50 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-01-01T09:47:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HxEs54m0OS8BwU127wf5 | Will a major crypto founder be murdered before Dec 31st 2023? | There are news of crypto vigilantes going to Dubai to chase DoKwon. They aren't publicly seeking to kill him, and I doubt they are, but it's reasonable to think someone else might be.
The project (either a coin, either a company) has to be worth $1B at some point to be considered major.
This market will be resolved t... | 2022-11-11T22:29:12 | 2023-12-31T18:56:00 | 2023-12-31T20:55:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GTa0vvx6WnuTq3gZJljn | Will Elon Musk testify to the U.S. Congress in 2023? | I won't bet.
Nov 12, 3:36pm: Will Elon Musk depose to the U.S. Congress in 2023? → Will Elon Musk testify to the U.S. Congress in 2023? | 2022-11-11T21:43:22 | 2023-12-30T19:00:00 | 2023-12-30T20:18:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BDkDL87e4vRgEtxr3b6P | Will there be an SBF criminal trial? | Resolves NO if otherwise settled without trial, or charges pass statue of limitations or etc. | 2022-11-11T17:34:46 | 2023-11-02T01:50:18 | 2023-11-02T01:50:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2oLp0rcOSb11Cbw8ukGa | Sam Bankman-Fried will be convicted before Donald Trump |
Close date updated to 2023-07-04 6:59 pm | 2022-11-11T17:06:08 | 2023-11-02T18:22:27 | 2023-11-02T18:22:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xTMnUHNSZF0pxDIsE5Se | By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up? | Resolves very subjectively, I'm not even going to bother to try to define this exhaustivly. Feel free to ask about hypothetical scenarios and I'll answer how I'd judge them. I'll add clarifications to this description as they're worked out.
"A leader in EA" refers to anyone who has significant influence/social status ... | 2022-11-11T16:56:17 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-05-28T19:02:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eCkLML8pfz4eOeaHJTZX | Will MrGirl apologize to Destiny between now and the end of Q1 2023? | The MrGirl bear market has resulted in a tumultuous time for the portfolios of many DGG satellites nearing the end of 2022; will this market recover by way of an apology?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/memestiny/destiny-stock-permanent)(https://manifold.markets/embed/memestiny/mrgirl-stock-permanent) | 2022-11-11T16:51:08 | 2023-03-31T16:30:00 | 2023-04-05T17:58:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ziv1JIqM2uuV4rxayDv1 | Binance founder Changpeng Zhao incarcerated before 2026 | Resolves as YES if Binance's founder Changpeng Zhao (aka CZ) is arrested or imprisoned in any country before 2026.
Data for resolving this claim will come from either CZ's Twitter feed or a reputable news source. | 2022-11-11T13:33:28 | 2024-04-30T14:46:49 | 2024-04-30T14:46:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aigwAoASjIxRFIP4JHwP | Will SBF receive a jail-free deal? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-11T12:51:23 | 2024-04-12T18:39:20 | 2024-04-12T18:39:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fosWzVK9Mxk4Gd5FtF1W | Will SBF spend at least one month in jail? | Related:
[markets] | 2022-11-11T12:46:27 | 2023-11-04T16:07:12 | 2023-11-04T16:07:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bltwwa9q7N7D6Vbh38A2 | Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024? | The war will be considered to have ended in 2024 if a ceasefire beginning in 2024 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2024. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire. | 2022-11-11T12:45:09 | 2025-01-01T12:09:54 | 2025-01-01T12:09:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vd5eZv17MG1mq5EP6RcD | Will Biden pardon SBF? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-11T12:31:52 | 2025-01-21T05:09:38 | 2025-01-21T05:09:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6dTq1tgXwyyeDBV2U3R9 | Will Destiny Wear a Suit Before 2024? | Must be photo or video evidence. | 2022-11-11T11:57:09 | 2023-09-01T18:43:29 | 2023-09-01T18:43:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zQfiiheTKCQzHwseqand | Will Hasan And Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024? | Doesn't matter whose stream. | 2022-11-11T11:31:43 | 2023-12-31T22:00:00 | 2024-01-01T09:52:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-URfqSFidVgQNlt2VTBjM | Will Vaush and Destiny Talk On Stream Before 2024? | Doesn't matter whose stream. | 2022-11-11T11:28:52 | 2023-10-12T18:58:22 | 2023-10-12T18:58:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SqnrPzRL7PUbWZNdXUFD | Will there be >5 stories of money donated by FTX/FTX Foundation (etc) being frozen or threatened to be before July 2023? | So we need to hear 5 independent credible accounts of money that was donated by FTX/FTX Foundation or other assocatied orgs either bieng frozen or officially threatened to be frozen by July 2023.
So money sent back doesn't count unless someone was legally threatened that it would be frozen if they didn't or that it wo... | 2022-11-11T11:00:31 | 2023-07-19T16:59:00 | 2023-07-31T04:32:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GkFnbagXnrJNUj0gDaZM | Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2023? | The war will be considered to have ended in 2023 if a ceasefire beginning in 2023 is not interrupted by further hostilities, even if a formal peace agreement or armistice is not signed in 2023. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire. | 2022-11-11T10:56:23 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:54:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u2pFgxac7JEtCS4szKPA | Will Coinbase filed for bankruptcy in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-11T09:12:27 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:10:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ul1akgpRFBJfgYISb0pR | Given the implosion of FTX, will there be a new round of ACX grants in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-11T05:46:17 | 2023-06-12T21:14:32 | 2023-06-12T21:14:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k9Kmj5NpP1YV1VqsD6DU | Will Coinbase suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023? | (the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023)
Non-"amplified odds" version of https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-coinbase-su
Binance versions of this question:
https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-binance-suspend-withdrawals-fo
https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplif... | 2022-11-10T18:24:20 | 2023-12-25T03:42:02 | 2023-12-25T03:42:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mPVO1hjJNfCkGmK3wVyL | Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023? | (the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023)
non-"amplified odds" version of https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/amplified-odds-10x-will-binance-sus | 2022-11-10T18:22:36 | 2023-12-25T03:42:15 | 2023-12-25T03:42:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xu6Qi1wfBQ4Zl3XpMboN | Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-10T15:53:55 | 2024-11-06T13:47:54 | 2024-11-06T13:47:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AGsjkj2yNGDsJ2PTB12H | Will Twitter file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2024 | Elon Musk Says Twitter Bankruptcy Is Possible
https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/TWTR/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy | 2022-11-10T14:42:13 | 2024-01-01T00:11:25 | 2024-01-01T00:11:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RG2aK1rxbs4hPH2PYrTK | Will Twitter go bankrupt before 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-10T13:47:42 | 2024-01-01T01:12:14 | 2024-01-01T01:12:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KSzyP7dhPRVCrzWCfFPv | Will the Rational Animations Youtube channel have over 200,000 subscribers at the end of 2023? | https://www.youtube.com/c/RationalAnimations
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am | 2022-11-10T12:36:19 | 2023-12-31T21:00:00 | 2024-01-02T21:44:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-scae4R7l6ejwK66cc15Q | Will FTX depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23? | Nov 10, 10:53pm: Will depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23? → Will FTX depositors get >50% of their deposits back if they want to before April 23? | 2022-11-10T07:04:05 | 2023-04-22T16:59:00 | 2023-04-25T01:59:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mYNZJV4SgnCkMeZY5C0H | Will Donald Trump claim election fraud against opponents in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries | If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary and claims fraud still took place the market will be resolved Yes
If Donald Trump loses and claims election fraud against any other opponent the market will be resolved Yes
Anything else will be resolved as No (I.e. If he doesn't run or wins/loses and doesn't claim fraud)
... | 2022-11-10T03:06:31 | 2024-11-04T17:00:00 | 2024-11-04T20:45:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LCqGYaBLA03Bqf19i2Wo | What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back? | (FTX Intl not FTX US)
Close date updated to 2030-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-11-10T00:07:50 | 2024-12-28T04:54:59 | 2024-12-28T04:54:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N4DVqzTBtNhOYZZmxJMx | AMPLIFIED ODDS 10x: Will Binance suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period before the end of 2023? | (the 7 day period must fully complete before the end of 2023)
"Amplified odds" approach copied from https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear-767e27d543c2
This rule resolves YES if the referenced market resolves YES.
If the referenced market resolves NO, I will get a random ... | 2022-11-09T20:45:32 | 2023-12-25T03:51:48 | 2023-12-25T03:51:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xestQpIKrsT4c1T7MZzU | Will Solana price fall below $5 before 2023? | Solana is one of the top 10 cryptocurrency in 2021, and everyone knows that $SOL is SBF's fave and we can see now SOL is tanking due to FTX insolvency. | 2022-11-09T20:33:18 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:36:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KWWQZ51KWeloGAswMjps | Will SBF be on the lam for most of 2023? | Do Kwon. Su Zhu. Et tu, SBF?
Resolves YES if disappears (whether under indictment, investigation, or otherwise no-showing the bankruptcy hearings or any other major events); PROB in close cases; NO if captured, in attendance, or generally locatable. | 2022-11-09T13:29:23 | 2023-11-02T17:46:07 | 2023-11-02T17:46:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JHETn6rcdSDUmQhMczK8 | Will SBF be imprisoned before 2030 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-09T13:15:26 | 2024-02-12T20:51:27 | 2024-02-12T20:51:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rEHv8m4j5VIEOZ4Kel0g | Will Ron DeSantis be elected US President in 2024? | Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the presidential election in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
(If DeSantis becomes President by any other means, e.g. through presidential succession without being directly elected, that will not count towards question resolution.) | 2022-11-09T12:28:34 | 2024-11-06T07:01:59 | 2024-11-06T07:01:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-acN2WcLBJhxRhz4WW0t4 | Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-09T08:39:26 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:03:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rhQYVU0QlJWOdXTAv32M | Will Destiny and Melina finalize their divorce legally in 2024? | FINAL ULTIMATE EDIT SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO READ THE BLOCK OF TEXT BELOW:
Destiny has said he will be submitting the paperwork for divorce. If the divorce goes through legally BEFORE 2025, this market will resolve "YES", if it does not, it will resolve "NO".
Keep in mind I don't know exactly how the divorce process work... | 2022-11-08T15:42:47 | 2024-01-25T14:43:17 | 2024-01-25T14:43:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mrrxcOsJVTRyt3JrHcCY | Will SBF be a billionaire according to Forbes on Apr 1st 2023? | Resolves according to https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/?sh=356ac4134449 or equivalent forbes url at whatever time I look it up on April 1st 2023 | 2022-11-08T13:37:03 | 2023-03-29T15:00:00 | 2023-04-01T15:28:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IiJt1CkRDDeHEQDnPQ5f | SBF convicted of a felony before 2024 | Resolves as YES if Sam Bankman-Fried (aka SBF), founder of FTX, is convicted of a felony in any country. Resolves as YES whether SBF pleads guilty, is found guilty, or is tried in absentia.
2026 version:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20)
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 ... | 2022-11-08T13:34:48 | 2023-11-03T11:30:51 | 2023-11-03T11:30:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4kRrqbSM9l1s7aKOy7c7 | Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $300mn in 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-08T09:10:30 | 2023-10-28T22:35:26 | 2023-10-28T22:35:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VHdhgJGxHL1TZ71ZJChV | Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $600mn in 2023? | Nov 8, 5:00pm: Will FTXFF spend more than $600mn in 2023? → Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $600mn in 2023? | 2022-11-08T08:56:05 | 2023-10-28T22:35:33 | 2023-10-28T22:35:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S4vX0HkG12LH8zCm4S9c | Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $100mn in 2023? | Nov 8, 5:00pm: Will the FTXFF spend more than $100mn in 2023? → Will the FTX Future Fund spend more than $100mn in 2023? | 2022-11-08T08:55:46 | 2023-10-25T06:17:47 | 2023-10-25T06:17:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gxOO6D1pC5wutgZC8EH6 | Will Twitter report an outage, system incident or downtime by the end of 2023? | This market will resolve to "YES" if by Dec 31 2023, Twitter will report a major incident (Degraded Performance, Partial Outage or Major Outage) of one of its systems.
Resolved by https://api.twitterstat.us/
Nov 18, 1:27pm: Will Twitter report a system incident/downtime by the end of 2023? → Will Twitter report an ou... | 2022-11-08T07:23:25 | 2023-09-15T11:13:43 | 2023-09-15T11:13:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oqj5YQyoZLzHNcGTRvro | Will GiveWell feature any anxiety or depression-related interventions in its All Grants Fund by Jun 30, 2023? | Considering all grants made or recommended according to: https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants#Database_of_all_GiveWell_grants | 2022-11-08T06:15:39 | 2023-06-30T19:59:00 | 2023-07-01T03:09:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NSYhqgr1YMFgmt7mCi1s | Will China stop quarantining incoming travellers by June 30, 2023? | While Hong Kong lifted its compulsory quarantine requirement for travelers outside of China in September 2022, such requirements remain for travelers to the PRC mainland (Government of Hong Kong, US Embassy in China, US News & World Report, CNN).
For the purposes of this question, "incoming travellers" means people c... | 2022-11-08T04:55:42 | 2023-06-06T05:02:45 | 2023-06-06T05:02:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AyaIS00aEDyQnR1Y2ptb | Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023? | Resolves YES if confirmed that Robin Hanson created a market on Manifold by end of the 2023.
related:
[markets]
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-11-08T04:14:30 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:39:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sdh6X8nhjULSPJ4hoyZf | Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023? | If you're required to pay to use Twitter as it currently exists (even if you have some free time), this market will be solved to YES.
I won't bet.
Nov 8, 1:39am: Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2022? → Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023? | 2022-11-07T20:32:13 | 2023-06-30T19:59:00 | 2023-06-30T23:09:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QfzdjXH9kzHUWEMPTbhb | Will Trump be disqualified from the presidency on insurrection grounds | Resolves YES iff this challenge prevents Trump from running | 2022-11-07T13:36:37 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T21:33:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KJnuSifh7ctWRsnTWAtJ | Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing? | This market will settle to YES if the June 2024 readings of Core PCE Inflation and Unemployment (defined by the BLS) read as the following:
PCE Inflation excluding Food and Energy is below 2% YoY
Unemployment is below 5.5% (2% above the recent low of 3.5%)
This market will also resolve to NO if at any time between N... | 2022-11-07T06:01:53 | 2024-07-15T19:59:00 | 2024-07-26T06:47:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZjVi7fvnhEzsnjVBv0Dp | Will Destiny be on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023? | Destiny's growth on YouTube, recent appearnces on multiple differnet podcasts and specifically his upcoming appearnce on the Lex Fridman Podcast has made this an actual possibility.
If Destiny appears as a guest on the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast by the end of 2023 the market will resolve to YES.
If Destiny does not... | 2022-11-07T02:42:27 | 2023-12-31T10:29:00 | 2024-01-01T12:17:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q86BQOAJKZ95FO8prYO2 | Will Destiny have 1 million subscribers on Youtube by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-06T15:19:15 | 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-01-02T16:23:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GZSMgsRaA0BRAyBN9klh | Will Meta (Facebook) report any earning loss in any quarter reports of 2023? | Will use scheduled earning calls as reference, if any earning period reports negative cashflow, it would resolve to yes. | 2022-11-05T13:51:27 | 2024-02-01T16:56:00 | 2024-02-01T19:57:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K2YJ77WO1CiNkf21NIcK | Will AAPL hit $200 before hitting $100? | Will resolve YES when AAPL (Nasdaq) closes above $200. Will resolve NO when AAPL (Nasdaq) hits $100.
Close date updated to 2025-01-01 12:59 am | 2022-11-05T09:58:49 | 2024-06-11T17:30:27 | 2024-06-11T17:30:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2X8C1ioH8gQEWWpOxjVj | Will Twitter make more revenue in 2023 than 2022? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-04T20:03:39 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:28:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dcfs4LsWmtCuaaURtw9T | Will Boeing's Starliner carry crew to orbit by the end of June 2023? | Resolves YES if a Starliner spacecraft manufactured by Boeing is in orbit around Earth with at least one human on board at any time before market close, NO if this does not happen by market close.
The crew flight test was most recently pushed to April. Will it slip another quarter?
https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation... | 2022-11-04T19:11:55 | 2023-06-30T20:59:00 | 2023-06-30T22:15:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mobo1jxLhZqnFJhWl6xY | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Trump is President again? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-04T17:29:00 | 2025-01-27T14:04:47 | 2025-01-27T14:04:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1pSCVBwxjPwzb0CIL67m | Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be married at the time of election | This question is about wheather the winning canidate has an active legally reconginzed marriage at the time of election. Piror martial status(divorce, windowed etc),civil unions and partnerships will reslove to a no.
Close date updated to 2024-12-15 11:59 pm | 2022-11-03T13:18:33 | 2024-12-03T11:15:25 | 2024-12-03T11:15:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KYnZvkTTNQzg5VYVIDPg | Will the UK fall into a recession lasting at least 2 years (longest since Great Depression), as predicted by the Bank of England? | Resolves YES if the UK experiences a recession lasting at least 2 years, starting in 2022 or 2023. Otherwise NO. Resolves according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom or official data.
BBC says: Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession. This is somewhat hyp... | 2022-11-03T12:54:19 | 2024-07-24T07:58:43 | 2024-07-24T07:58:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N3QG77Qz57OIcJ3tc3te | Will GiveWell say that Dispensers for Safe Water are less than 6.5x as effective as GiveDirectly before 2024? | The spirit of this question is if, before 2024, @SpacedOutMatt's criticism will be judged roughly correct. le will GiveWell reduce some kind of median number for long term effectiveness average from 7.4x to below 6.5x, before the end of next year? If ambiguous I will decide or just resolve ambiguous.
https://twitter.c... | 2022-11-03T10:47:44 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-07T14:26:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-20l847MyKQdWLyJoqrEG | Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia by the end of June 2023? | If the mainstream press reports news of Iran making a military attack into Saudi territory, this market will resolve to YES.
Creator policy: I won't bet. | 2022-11-03T10:16:29 | 2023-06-30T19:59:00 | 2023-06-30T23:09:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FsOlnM67oIPHqcRn2DDL | Will any arrest warrant be issued against Bolsonaro by the end of 2023? | Related markets
[markets]
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm | 2022-11-02T18:14:49 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:31:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9f5UgI6dWT9J2eqGMw4o | Will Bolsonaro flee Brazil to avoid being arrested by the end of 2023? |
Related markets:
[markets]
| 2022-11-02T17:49:46 | 2023-12-31T19:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:31:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dPwQ4AcF4010oq707nYe | Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023? | Nov 2, 8:04pm: Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2022? → Will the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei die in 2023? | 2022-11-02T17:04:31 | 2023-12-31T04:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:06:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YvZMbbNxks2oHd58iPPy | Will Twitter acquire the US assets of TikTok by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-02T17:01:37 | 2023-12-31T13:55:50 | 2023-12-31T13:55:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sZFO9PUtG8W9FGrm6lPC | Will MBS become King of Saudi Arabia by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-02T16:59:34 | 2023-12-31T14:08:01 | 2023-12-31T14:08:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CUjdL819yyKUHQd1zAl7 | Will Bibi Netanyahu be invited to address the 118th US Congress? | Resolves YES if Bibi, presumably the next prime minister of Israel (5th time) is invited to address the US Congress (2nd time).
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/wRf1cdw4IAY)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-bibi-netanyahu-address-the-118) | 2022-11-02T15:03:02 | 2024-05-31T14:15:11 | 2024-05-31T14:15:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-at4SfIwNAVDpHZCMUkQf | Will the United States be in a recession by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-02T09:37:27 | 2024-01-01T14:04:16 | 2024-01-01T14:04:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J7EV7HCBKQkjr41ZPXaf | Will Biden be impeached by 2025? | If the House of Representatives impeaches Joe Biden during his current term, this market will resolve to YES. This market will resolve to NO before the end date if the House is no longer able to impeach Biden (most notably, he no longer is the POTUS).
I won't bet. | 2022-11-02T07:05:42 | 2025-01-20T18:59:00 | 2025-01-21T20:05:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yPbxyTVgJFOgc19u90gG | Will Elon Musk father another child by August 2023? | real money original: https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023
This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by August 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible r... | 2022-11-02T06:37:11 | 2023-08-31T05:38:00 | 2023-08-31T08:06:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-exgdTnXPY4A5T3NQLoyj | Will Hunter Biden experience a major relapse while his father is president? | Resolves YES if it happens. | 2022-11-02T05:47:22 | 2025-01-20T08:59:00 | 2025-02-01T22:55:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YsXzFP8eEfkUOmKorCKG | Will FED pivot by Q4 2023? | FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by December 31, 2023, the Fede... | 2022-11-02T05:37:06 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-02T07:39:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qncQcNHWtbDuTQyyHRhJ | Will FED pivot by Q3 2023? | FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by September 30, 2023, the Fed... | 2022-11-02T05:36:30 | 2023-09-30T14:59:00 | 2023-10-04T19:14:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DkXFZtb2MoyXdPmUKC2L | Will FED pivot by Q2 2023? | FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by June 30, 2023, the Federal ... | 2022-11-02T05:35:48 | 2023-06-30T14:59:00 | 2023-07-03T01:30:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ALQigAVH25YML6Tee50z | Will FED pivot by Q1 2023? | FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by March 31, 2023, the Federal... | 2022-11-02T05:35:24 | 2023-03-31T14:59:00 | 2023-04-01T03:38:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ZxO9lmrBy76JrxtvDBg | Will Mike Pence be the Republican nominee? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-11-01T22:59:58 | 2024-07-17T04:53:14 | 2024-07-17T04:53:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SZRFPPoMSS6yfrwxdJ7p | Will Moldova join the EU by 2025 | This question resolves to "YES" if the republic of Moldova joins the EU by direct ascension, or by joining the republic of Romania by 2025 | 2022-11-01T15:50:10 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-05T15:26:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jEfXPGbQNDIsXVsgvmCq | Will Parag Agrawal (former Twitter CEO) successfully make Musk pay the full agreed severance before 2024? | As part of the merger agreement, top Twitter executives were set to receive severance payments aka "golden parachutes" if they were fired. But Elon Musk is trying to get out of this agreement by claiming to fire them "for cause".
Resolves YES if Twitter ends up paying Parag Agrawal the full agreed amount of $57.4m, by... | 2022-11-01T14:33:43 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:17:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0qpbcAkHCgYvIkWFGlhA | Will FedNow launch in 2023 | FedNow is the Federal Reserve's new proposed system to handle bank-to-bank transfers faster and more efficiently than ACH, detailed here: https://www.frbservices.org/financial-service…
The service is slated to launch sometime in 2023. However, it is an open question both whether that deadline will be met.
Question wi... | 2022-11-01T10:10:07 | 2023-09-04T22:14:08 | 2023-09-04T22:14:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B8PbAqEJsmgpnqzkHE9g | Will Elon Musk be SpaceX CEO through 2023? | If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of SpaceX through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No". | 2022-11-01T08:11:40 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T05:40:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xYRoSpdVGD5TzHCYiw7C | Will Elon Musk be Twitter's CEO through 2023? | If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Twitter through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
related:
[markets]other 2023 Elon CEO markets:
[markets] | 2022-11-01T08:09:24 | 2023-06-06T14:39:44 | 2023-06-06T14:39:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PkROncBBtV79XWyEcfC7 | Will Elon Musk be Tesla's CEO through 2023? | If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Tesla through December 31st, 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
related markets:
[markets] | 2022-11-01T08:08:15 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T04:52:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MRGBwOHZyEzZ3DvWqWM3 | Will Twitter IPO in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-31T10:07:02 | 2024-12-30T09:22:33 | 2024-12-30T09:22:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ueyqSEj4dYvTupdrlEyl | Will Lula da Silva still be alive through the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2022-10-31T08:07:07 | 2023-12-31T20:13:36 | 2023-12-31T20:13:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9jmq5qAaWSJaGH8ejhLh | Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of March? | A duplicate of this market, with a different date.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream ent... | 2022-10-30T13:13:45 | 2023-03-31T20:59:00 | 2023-03-31T21:34:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.