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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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meta-30493
|
Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024?
|
Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) is greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024. If it is less than that, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30492
|
Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024?
|
CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are in space on December 30, 2024, at noon EST, based on credible sources. If they have returned to Earth's surface, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.
The question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. "Earth's surface" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30491
|
On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
|
This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.
As of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).
In late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on December 31, 2024.
The primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of early 2024 includes a ["Where Can You Go?"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.
Fine Print: "rider-only" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.
"Available to the general public" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.
"United States" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.
In the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on December 31, 2024.
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-27T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30476
|
Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?
|
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. [On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. [10 days later](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-28-september-2024-c4751957433ff944c4eb06027885a973), Israel assassinated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
On November 25, 2025, [the BBC reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rge45kw4jo) that Israel and Lebanon were close to reaching a 60-day ceasefire deal.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if a ceasefire or similar deal that involves the cessation of all military activity between Israel and Hezbollah is active on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question will resolve based on the latest reports from credible sources. If such reports indicate that a ceasefire remains in effect, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If the latest reports indicate that a ceasefire is no longer effective as of the resolution date, this question will resolve as **No**. If it is unclear, according to the judgement of Metaculus admins, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
|
2024-11-30T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T19:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30464
|
Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Providence, RI, has risen by ≥5.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to "ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "New York, NY" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30463
|
Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Los Angeles, CA has risen by ≥2.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to "ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Los Angeles, CA" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:21:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30462
|
Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Orlando, FL has risen by ≥1.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under RENTALS, make sure Data Type is set to "ZORI (Smoothed): All Homes Plus Multifamily Time Series" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Orlando, FL" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30461
|
Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Baltimore, MD has risen by ≥2.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to "ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Baltimore, MD" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30460
|
Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Dallas, TX has risen by ≥0.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to "ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Dallas, TX" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30459
|
Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow?
|
According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Hartford, CT, has risen by ≥7.0% for November 2024. If this does not occur, then this resolves as **No**. The figure can be accessed either through observing the Zillow Zillow Home Value Index, Raw (ZHVI) chart or through the CSV file. To download the CSV, under HOME VALUES, make sure Data Type is set to "ZHVI All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op) Time Series, Raw, Mid-Tier ($)" and Geography is set to "Metro & U.S." The RegionName "Hartford, CT" in the CSV will be used, specifically by looking at the year-over-year increase from November 2023 to November 2024. (First divide current value by prior value, then subtract one, then multiply by 100%.)
Fine Print: Please note that the instructions on how to access the CSV are provided for convenience only; according to Zillow, "We make frequent changes to the download paths for CSVs." In the event the location of the data has changed, the question resolves based on the new location. The question will resolve as soon as the data is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date and the data has been reported. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. In the event the chart and CSV report different figures, the CSV will take precedence.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:16:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30458
|
Will Florida Governor Ron Desantis refrain from naming the replacement for Marco Rubio's Senate seat before January 1, 2025?
|
[DeSantis aims to appoint Marco Rubio’s Senate replacement by early January](https://apnews.com/article/us-senate-florida-rubio-desantis-trump-appointment-49e3d490a298b64470c69d1892efc1b8)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Ron DeSantis has not named the successor to Marco Rubio's US Senate seat. If he has named Rubio's successor before then, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30457
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000?
|
[BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the movie as follows: "Two high school nobodies make the decision to crash the last major celebration before the new millennium on New Year's Eve 1999. The night becomes even crazier than they could have ever dreamed when the clock strikes midnight." Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Y2K, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt27218960/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $5,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T02:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30455
|
Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2025?
|
2024-11-25T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-26T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
|
meta-30410
|
Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025?
|
As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is a new post, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-29T02:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30409
|
Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program make it to 2025 without being cancelled?
|
Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS.
Unfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS.
Due to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at "no cost to the taxpayer" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system.
The latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting "stranded" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned.
Looking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the "fully operational phase" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule.
Generally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.
The technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these occur: 1) The Boeing Starliner Program is not canceled before January 1, 2025. 2) The Boeing Starliner Program completes its first operational flight before January 1, 2025. The question resolves as **No** if either of these events occur before January 1, 2025: 1) The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. 2) Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program before completing its first [operational flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1).
Fine Print: There is a decent chance that additional test or demonstration flights are performed, and these are not counted in this case. The deciding flight needs to be distinctly considered an "operational" flight, the "Post Certification Mission-1" or "Boeing Starliner-1."
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30408
|
Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be below 7.00% on December 31, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?
|
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of November 22, 2024 was 6.84%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage is less than 7.00% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after December 31, 2024. If the 30-Yr FRM is greater than or equal to 7.00%, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The resolution amount of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be the one displayed at the moment Metaculus Admins access the Freddie Mac tracker page. It will be the rate listed as the 30-Yr FRM under "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". It will be immaterial what period that covers, and the question will resolve based on whatever figure is shown. The time of day that the page will be accessed is also not going to be listed; Metaculus Admins will merely access the webpage at their convenience at some point on or after that date and record the rate listed.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:47:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30407
|
Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?
|
[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 1 January 2025, Bluesky reports at least 30 million users according to [this counter](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats).
Fine Print: If the counter stops reporting this number or there is reason to believe that the number reported is inaccurate, admins may resolve the question based on credible sources.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30406
|
Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?
|
Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums "A Family Christmas" and "Believe". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.
Fine Print: - A concert is considered "sold out" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.
- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-04T00:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30404
|
Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?
|
Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nvidia has the largest market cup of any company according to [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) after the close of trading on December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: - If there are ambiguities regarding Nvidia's ranking, the "End of year Market Cap" values will be used from each of the top companies' [individual page](https://companiesmarketcap.com/nvidia/marketcap/).
- If CompaniesMarketCap is unavailable, admins may wait until 7 January 2025 and then use alternative, credible sources.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30403
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?
|
[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.
Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).
Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Mufasa: The Lion King](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13186482/) surpasses the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Sonic the Hedgehog 3](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086/), according to the numbers provided by Box Office Mojo. If the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 exceeds that of Mufasa: The Lion King, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Other credible sources might be considered if Box Office Mojo does not report the relevant numbers.
The weekend box office figures are [generally expected](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#weekend) to be posted after 1 PM Pacific Time on the Monday the day after the weekend. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-24T16:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30379
|
Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? (v2 working)
|
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group
Resolution Criteria: from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group
|
2024-11-01T22:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T06:01:00Z
|
2025-01-03T01:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30364
|
Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024?
|
Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Mt Seymour Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/mount-seymour/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 13, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T13:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30363
|
Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 1, 2025?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)
----
Republican Congresspeople [Ted Cruz](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/) and [Jim Jordan](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/25/jim-jordan-prods-gop-colleagues-consider-impeachin/) have both publicly discussed the possibility of impeaching President Joe Biden if Republicans win control of the House of Representatives following the [2022 midterm elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections). Ted Cruz stated on his podcast in [January 2022](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/04/ted-cruz-joe-biden-impeachment/):
>Democrats weaponized impeachment [...] they used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. And one of the real disadvantages of doing that … is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Throughout his term, Biden has maintained that his plan is to run for re-election, as confirmed by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in [June 2022](https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1536477522988343296).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Joe Biden does not complete his term as the 46th President of the United States from January 20, 2021 through January 1, 2025, as specified by the [20th Amendment]((https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-20/section-1)) of the US Constitution. This may be for any reason, for example, due to his resignation, death, impeachment and removal, or another cause.
This question will not resolve if the Vice President or another person takes the duties of the Acting President as specified in [Sections 3 and 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Section_3:_President's_declaration_of_inability) of the 25th Amendment (for example, in the case of an [expected medical procedure](https://www.dw.com/en/us-kamala-harris-serves-as-acting-president-during-biden-colonoscopy/a-59883548)); it will only resolve as **Yes** if Biden is fully removed from the office.
This question will also resolve as **Yes** if the President's term is legally determined to end prior to midnight on January 1, 2025
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30362
|
Will Alphabet/Google continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Eric Schmidt's return as CEO or as a member of its Board of Directors?
|
Eric Schmidt served as CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011 and was its board chairman from 2011 to 2015 and then chairman of Alphabet from 2015 to 2017.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Eric Schmidt has been announced as the next CEO of Google or Alphabet, or is listed as being on its board of directors [here](https://abc.xyz/investor/board-and-governance/) or is announced as having been elected or appointed to the board. It also resolves as **No** if the company ceases operations. Otherwise this resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: Interim, acting, or temporary CEO does not count.
If the company has multiple CEOs and this individual is going to be one of them, it will count.
This question resolves based on announcement; the date of beginning work is irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30361
|
Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024?
|
As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if according to [FRED's 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y), there is a negative value for December 27, 2024. If it is greater than or equal to 0.00, this question resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value shown for the date in question when accessed by Metaculus; later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T00:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30360
|
Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance?
|
According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the investors who bought in early this year have already seen impressive returns, defying gold's reputation as only a long-term investment."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices remains below $2,800 on every trading day after the launch of this question and through the last trading day before December 28, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. If the price closes at greater than or equal to $2,800, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T15:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30359
|
Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before Jan 1, 2025?
|
As of November 20, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped November 14, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before Januar 1, 2025. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30358
|
Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?
|
According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in their latest push to support the sector, raising expectations that battery manufacturers may soon begin restocking lithium inputs. Despite relatively high stocks from a historical standpoint, battery manufacturers also reportedly raised purchasing activity amid risks of a trade war after Trump assumes office next year in the US. In turn, the plunge in prices during the year drove multiple mines in Australia and China to close or cut costs, resulting in 190 tons of lithium mine curtailments since 2023."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by Trading Economics, remains above 70,000, for every day's closing price, after the launch of this question, and through December 20, 2024.
Fine Print: The question will resolve as "No" if the lithium carbonate price closes at or below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-20T21:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30357
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?
|
According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt14824600/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $20,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-18T13:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30356
|
Will the Dairy Recall Tracker maintained by the Center for Dairy Research show more than 1 recall for December 2024?
|
The question of dairy recalls has taken on particular importance in 2024, due to [HPAI bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Dairy Recall Tracker at [this link](https://www.cdr.wisc.edu/dairy-recall-tracker) lists more than one recall in December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2024. If it does not show >1 recall for December 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. As long as the page can be accessed, if for any reason it does not show greater than 1 recall for December 2024, this question resolves as No. Please note that only recalls will be counted, which means that it must be listed as such either in the headline or the linked story. Other notices such as consumer alerts do not count.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T00:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30328
|
Will WeWork continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Adam Neumann's return as CEO?
|
Adam Neumann co-founded WeWork in 2010 and served as its CEO until 2019.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Adam Neumann has been announced as the next CEO of WeWork. It also resolves as **No** if the company ceases operations. Otherwise this resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: Interim, acting, or temporary CEO does not count.
If the company has multiple CEOs and this individual is going to be one of them, it will count.
This question resolves based on announcement; the date of beginning work is irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:39:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30327
|
Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on December 31, 2024, according to Forbes?
|
According to the resolution source: "Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires rankings tracks the daily ups and downs of the world’s richest people. The wealth-tracking platform provides ongoing updates on the net worth and ranking of each individual confirmed by Forbes to be a billionaire. The value of individuals’ public holdings are updated every 5 minutes when respective stock markets are open (there will be a 15-minute delay for stock prices). Individuals whose fortunes are significantly tied to private companies will have their net worths updated once a day. In cases where an individual owns a stake in a private company that accounts for 20% or more of his or her net worth, the value of the company will be adjusted according to an industry- or region-specific market index provided by our partners at FactSet Research Systems when available. A rotating cast of the five biggest winners and losers throughout the day is featured at the top of the page, followed by the complete list of billionaires ranked in order of net worth."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on December 31, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 6, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30326
|
Will iHeartMedia continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without filing for bankruptcy?
|
iHeartMedia, which runs more than 860 broadcast radio stations and offers programming and other services to the industry, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2019, and although it is earning positive operating income, the interest payments exceed the operating income and the firm will need to restructure that debt in a higher interest rate environment than it faced before.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **No** if iHeartMedia, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**.
Only petitions filed by iHeartMedia, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of its business (as judged by moderators) as of the launch of this question will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30325
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000?
|
According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Kraven the Hunter according to the tracking page on [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt8790086/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) exceeds USD $20,000,000.00. If the number is less than or equal to that, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If BoxOfficeMojo fails to report the number before January 1, 2025, other credible sources may be considered. If the film is not released before January 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-18T13:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30324
|
Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2025?
|
Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.
As of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found *what* is in their air, not *how much* or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.
Sadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life.
So far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if any exoplanet with >5% O2 atmosphere is found before January 1, 2025
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30323
|
Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?
|
Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Google or Alphabet appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30322
|
Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla?
|
Tesla is most recently listed in April 2024, with the blurb saying, "Has gutted its charging team in a new round of layoffs, CEO Elon Musk announced in an overnight email to executives."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/13/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Tesla has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Tesla appears for November 2024 or December 2024. If Tesla is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30321
|
Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/south-carolina) lists greater than or equal to 300,000 South Carolina residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 300,000, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30297
|
Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?
|
Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of generative AI, as Nvidia [provides](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the vast majority of chips that are used to train these systems. However, in recent weeks, there have been [reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai) that the new LLMs from the leading companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) are not showing the expected improvements.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nvidia has the largest market cup of any company according to [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) after the close of trading on December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: - If there are ambiguities regarding Nvidia's ranking, the "End of year Market Cap" values will be used from each of the top companies' [individual page](https://companiesmarketcap.com/nvidia/marketcap/).
- If CompaniesMarketCap is unavailable, admins may wait until 7 January 2025 and then use alternative, credible sources.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-29T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30295
|
Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?
|
[Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in February 2024, Bluesky has seen significant growth, going from 3 million users before launch to 20 million as of November 19, 2024, 10 million of which joined the platform over the past [two months](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2024/11/18/post-election-x-rival-bluesky-is-adding-millions-of-users/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 1 January 2025, Bluesky reports at least 30 million users according to [this counter](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats).
Fine Print: If the counter stops reporting this number or there is reason to believe that the number reported is inaccurate, admins may resolve the question based on credible sources.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30286
|
Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
|
The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win the 2024 Golden Joystick Award for Console Game of the Year in the awards ceremony, currently scheduled for November 21, 2024.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T00:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30285
|
Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2025?
|
*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*
---
In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
The planet, however, remains to be found.
If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
Resolution Criteria: For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. If this does not happen before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30284
|
Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?
|
As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Larry Ellison is in 2nd place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30283
|
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is less than 585 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around December 28, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T15:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30282
|
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around December 28, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T15:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30281
|
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs exceeds 590 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around December 28, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T00:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30280
|
Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Amid negative operating income and a large debtload (and high interest payments), meme stock AMC has recently [refinanced](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/amc-theatres-refinancing-deal-2029-1235954760/) debt
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30279
|
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 3,000,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 3,000,000, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30278
|
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 2,800,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 2,800,000, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30277
|
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 2,600,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 2,600,000, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T16:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30276
|
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?
|
In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), which can be access through [this link](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view), shows greater than 2,400,000 background check initiated in November 2024. If the number is less than or equal to 2,400,000, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Numbers are expected to be reported in the month subsequent, so for example October numbers are expected to be reported in November. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait, until the question will be annulled in early January 2025 if there are no numbers reported by then for the time in question.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-10T15:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30275
|
Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?
|
This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), Kalshi has a higher rank than Robinhood when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30274
|
Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025?
|
Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.
Trump's recent interactions with key leaders have been notable. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September 2024 at Trump Tower, later describing him as "the greatest salesman in the world." After winning the election, Trump reportedly spoke with both Zelenskyy (in a call that included Elon Musk discussing continued Starlink support) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has denied that the Putin call took place, calling reports from The Washington Post "pure fiction."
Multiple peace proposals are reportedly under consideration by Trump's team, including a potential 800-mile demilitarized zone. Some NATO members, like Slovakia, have begun openly questioning continued military support for Ukraine, while others remain committed. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting demographic pressures from military losses exceeding 710,000 troops and a severe birth rate crisis.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if an armistice or a ceasefire is announced by both Ukraine and Russia before January 1, 2025. This will count if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The ceasefire or armistice must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.
The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this question. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced before January 1, 2025
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-20T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30252
|
Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?
|
Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his albums "A Family Christmas" and "Believe". Historically, Bocelli's concerts have attracted large audiences, [occasionally](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/music/1949661/andrea-bocelli-tickets-uk-tour-2025) leading to sold-out shows.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024, is officially declared sold out by the venue or the primary ticketing platform, Ticketmaster, before the respective performance date.
Fine Print: - A concert is considered "sold out" when no tickets are available for purchase through official channels. Secondary market availability (resale platforms) will not impact the resolution of this question.
- Admins may resolve this question based on either reports from credible sources or by checking the availability of the tickets on Ticketmaster.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** based on the first reports that a performance has been sold out. If extra seats are added after a performance is reported as being sold out, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.
- If both of the performances are canceled or rescheduled, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-18T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30213
|
Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?
|
[*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedgehog 3*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18259086/) is an upcoming action-adventure comedy film based on the Sega video game series. The original *Sonic the Hedgehog* earned $58 million in its domestic opening weekend, while its sequel, *Sonic the Hedgehog 2*, made $72 million.
Both films are based in intellectual properties from the early 90s and are set for release on December 20, 2024. Despite the differences in the box office performances of the previous installments in their respective franchises, projections for both films [appear to be similarly strong](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-mufasa-the-lion-king-and-sonic-the-hedgehog-3s-early-box-office-ranges-plus-wicked-gladiator-ii-and-moana-2-updates/).
Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#boxofficetracking):
>Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included.
>Gross refers to gross earnings in U.S. dollars. On average, a movie's distributor receives a little more than half of the final gross (often referred to as the "rentals") with the remainder going to the exhibitor (i.e. movie theater). The money split varies from movie to movie, but, generally, the contract favors the distributor in early weeks and shifts to the exhibitor later on.
>Weekend box office charts show gross receipts for a given weekend, which is Friday through Sunday unless otherwise noted. Studio estimates for the weekend are reported on Sunday mornings, generally between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. Pacific Time and reflect estimated Friday and Saturday box office receipts plus a projection for Sunday.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Mufasa: The Lion King](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13186482/) surpasses the domestic box office for the opening weekend of [Sonic the Hedgehog 3](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt18259086/), according to the numbers provided by Box Office Mojo. If the domestic box office for the opening weekend of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 exceeds that of Mufasa: The Lion King, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: Other credible sources might be considered if Box Office Mojo does not report the relevant numbers.
The weekend box office figures are [generally expected](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-by-imdbpro-glossary/GN8HA87MT4597FSW?ref_=mojo_ftr_glossary#weekend) to be posted after 1 PM Pacific Time on the Monday the day after the weekend. This question resolves based on the figures reported when they are accessed by Metaculus Admins, and further revisions will not be considered.
|
2024-11-21T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-19T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-24T15:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30203
|
Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton wins the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30202
|
Will the CDC confirm a case of Marburg virus disease in a US resident before January 1, 2025?
|
According to CDC, "The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Marburg virus disease in a resident of the United States before January 1, 2025. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website. The question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Marburg virus disease in U.S. residents before Midnight UTC on January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: - Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count. Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered. Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation. For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30201
|
Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists ≥3 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T23:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30200
|
Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists 1 or 2 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-28T23:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30199
|
Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists exactly 0 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of December 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-29T10:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30198
|
Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024?
|
According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were labeled as pork and vice versa. The swap also led to soy, a known allergen, not being declared on the beef wieners. The problem was discovered when the establishment received a complaint from a retailer that the products they received may have been incorrectly labeled. The establishment determined that they inadvertently mislabeled beef wiener products as beef and pork wiener products and vice versa. The products labeled as beef and pork wiener products actually contain beef wiener products that contain soy; therefore, soy is not declared on the finished product label. Additionally, the product labeled as beef wiener products actually contain beef and pork wiener products, therefore, pork is not declared on the finished product label. There have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Dearborn Sausage Company's ready-to-eat (RTE) wiener products due to misbranding and undeclared allergens is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/dearborn-sausage-company-inc--recalls-wiener-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T22:05:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30197
|
Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
In January 2024, Amazon terminated its planned acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory opposition. At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also faced revenue declines and negative cash flow from operations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if iRobot Corporation files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30196
|
Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Bausch Health sells pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices. Recently it [denied](https://ir.bauschhealth.com/news-releases/2024/07-24-2024) it was considering bankruptcy, calling such reports "unsubstantiated rumors."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bausch Health, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30195
|
Will Nick Sirianni cease to be the Philadelphia Eagles head coach before January 1, 2025?
|
ClutchPoints: [Eagles fans want Nick Sirianni fired after bizarre calls](https://clutchpoints.com/eagles-news-fans-want-nick-sirianni-fired-bizarre-calls)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Nick Sirianni is no longer head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/coaches/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30194
|
On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world?
|
As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Nvidia is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30193
|
On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world?
|
As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Microsoft is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30192
|
On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?
|
As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30190
|
Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?
|
Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft remains below $468.35 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/).
Fine Print: In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.
|
2024-11-18T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-19T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30124
|
On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
|
This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).
Cruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed "an unreasonable risk to public safety" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.
Additionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.
Cruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve "Yes" if credible sources indicate that rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Cruise are available to the general public anywhere in the United States on December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: - "Rider-only" means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.
- "Available to the general public" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.
- "United States" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30123
|
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?
|
As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)
In Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.
As the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as YES if, before January 1, 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and NO otherwise.
Fine Print: The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.
The export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.
These need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. Taxes or trade deals are not considered here.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30122
|
Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu?
|
In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.
The ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
See Also
Base rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister).
Fine Print: A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Jan 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Jan 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:07:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30121
|
Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 255 ≤ H < 330.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30120
|
Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 165 ≤ H < 255.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30119
|
Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 75 ≤ H < 165.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30118
|
Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 45 ≤ H < 75.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30117
|
Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if 15 ≤ H < 45.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30116
|
Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?
|
Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, with shades often expressing broader cultural themes. Pantone [bases its choice](https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-of-the-year/choosing-the-pantone-color-of-the-year) on trends in various domains, including fashion, interior design, art, and digital aesthetics, reflecting colors that are anticipated to resonate globally.
Here are the colors of the year from the last ten years and how this question would have resolved
- 2024: **Peach Fuzz** (Orange)
- 2023: **Viva Magenta** (Red)
- 2022: **Very Peri** (Blue)
- 2021: **Ultimate Gray** (Blue) and **Illuminating** (Yellow)
- 2020: **Classic Blue** (Blue)
- 2019: **Living Coral** (Red)
- 2018: **Ultra Violet** (Violet)
- 2017: **Greenery** (Green)
- 2016: **Rose Quartz** (Red) and **Serenity** (Blue)
- 2015: **Marsala** (Red)
The Color Of The Year for 2025 is expected to be announced on [December 5, 2024](https://www.pantone.com/uk/en/color-of-the-year/2025/countdown).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the Hue of Pantone's Color Of The Year for 2025. Specifically, the color's hex code will be transformed to the HSV model and the question will resolve as **Yes** if H ≥ 330 OR H < 15.
Fine Print: - If Pantone releases two Colors Of The Year for 2025, the one used for resolution will be the color named first in their announcement. In 2016, that would have been Rose Quartz and, in 2021, that would have been Ultimate Gray. If Pantone fails to announce a Color of the Year in 2024, then this question will be **annulled**.
- The color definitions are of course imperfect, sorry about that.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-05T18:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30115
|
Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?
|
North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.
[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)
> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.
However, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.
If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: - Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.
- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.
- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units.
- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T12:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30114
|
Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?
|
[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.
[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.
If Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-13T13:34:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30113
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?
|
The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:
>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:
>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or
>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:08:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30112
|
Will a country change its official name before Jan 1, 2025?
|
Changing a country’s name is relatively rare, typically motivated by political, historical, or national reconciliation reasons. The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) for its official communications since 1922.
For instance, Macedonia changed its name to North Macedonia in 2019 for [diplomatic purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macedonia_naming_dispute).
[This Wikipedia article has a non-exhaustive list of such changes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_renaming#Countries).
Resolution Criteria: For a name change to be recognized, it must be confirmed by an official declaration from the state but does not need to be validated by major international organizations.
Fine Print: - Only full UN members will be considered. A country has to be a member of the UN during its name change to resolve this question.
- If an existing country splits into two or more new countries, this question will not resolve if one of them keeps the official name of the original country and remains in the UN.
- Any change in the official name of the country would resolve this question. For example Greece changing its official name from Hellenic Republic to Republic of Hellas would count.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30111
|
Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025?
|
According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https://hoards.com/article-34969-how-will-avian-influenza-impact-milk-supply.html) being asymptomatic and most of those that get sick recovering within 3 weeks), HPAI primary affects [older cows](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(24)00112-1/fulltext), leading to decreased milk production from an industry standpoint. While mortality in cows [is low](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2024/05/10/usda-hhs-announce-new-actions-reduce-impact-and-spread-h5n1), from a public health standpoint there is potentially a risk of spillover of H5N1 Influenza from cattle to humans, which might under certain circumstances lead to an epidemic. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, testing from the CDC [has found](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/studies-find-little-no-immunity-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-americans) that the American population has little to no pre-existing immunity to the H5N1 virus that is circulating on farms.
H5N1 has been [detected in milk](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7321e1.htm) as well as being [spread to farm workers](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotlights/protect-farm-workers-bird-flu.html). Therefore a potential useful line of defense in protecting human public health would be an H5 vaccine for dairy cows.
In May 2023, the US Department of Agriculture's Center for Veterinary Biologics (USDA-CVB) [began testing](https://www.avma.org/news/usda-starts-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-vaccine-trials) vaccines for HPAI. On August 28, 2024, it [expanded](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/cvb-notice-24-13-field-studies-nonviable-non-replicating-veterinary-vaccines) to authorize field trials. The advantage of field trials is that the studies are no longer required to be conducted in containment facilities. For further details of the field studies authorization including protocols please see [CVB Notice NO. 24-13 (pdf)](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-13.pdf)
The USDA-CVB is [accepting applications](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf) for the licensure of vaccines for livestock, including dairy cattle under the following pathways:
>Conditional Licensure – CVB will consider serological response in vaccinated target species as data to support a reasonable expectation of efficacy. Serological testing should focus on antibodies to the H5 clade 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin using an assay such as or similar to the hemagglutination inhibition assay.
>Full Licensure – Currently CVB will only consider studies using vaccinationchallenge with H5 HPAI in the target species, along with all other licensure requirements, to obtain full licensure. Note the recent [Select Agent Exemption for H5 HPAI](https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/exemptions/avian-influenza.htm). Study protocols should be submitted to CVB for review.
As of 11 November 2024, one company that has begun field trials is veterinary pharmaceutical and biotechnology company Medgene Labs, which [is expecting](https://kbhbradio.com/south-dakota-company-begins-trials-on-h5n1-avian-flu-vaccine-for-dairy-cows/) to complete its H5 vaccine study in December 2024 and share its results with the USDA at that time.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture's [Center for Veterinary Biologics](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/veterinary-biologics) (USDA-CVB) grants or issues a full or conditional license for a vaccine against H5 [Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza) (HPAI) to be administered to dairy cattle in the United States.
If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Authorized field studies do not in themselves count as licensure, nor does early access use or experimental use.
If USDA-CVB approves the vaccine for a larger group that includes dairy cattle (such as for livestock), that will count. Any approval that does not include dairy cattle will not.
Please note that, as USDA-CVB says in [NOTICE NO. 24-11](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/notice24-11.pdf), "U.S. licensure is distinct from authorization for U.S. use." For purposes of this question, conditional licensure or full licensure are sufficient to resolve this question as Yes.
Any vaccine for H5 strains of HPAI will count, including but not limited to H5N1, and regardless of clade, including but not limited to clade 2.3.4.4b, as long as it is associated with the current HPAI outbreak.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T00:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30110
|
Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?
|
[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.
The rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):
> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.
Fine Print: If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-16T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T13:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30074
|
Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?
|
After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.
Fine Print: Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or Yahoo Finance can be used.
If the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30073
|
Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024?
|
As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.
Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.
Potential candidates for UN membership include:
1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.
2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.
3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.
4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.
5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.
Additionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.
Factors to consider when forecasting:
- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)
- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts
- Ongoing independence movements
- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states
- The veto power of permanent Security Council members
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states is exactly 193 on December 31, 2024 when checked by Metaculus. It will resolve negatively if the number of member states is not 193. The mechanism of checking will be to access [this specific link](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states) from the UN. The Admin resolving the question will hit control-F and count the number of instances of "Date of Admission" on the page.
Fine Print: If the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:39:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30072
|
Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
|
OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.
The [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves "Yes" if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI's commercial operations (such operations, as of the writing of this question, are housed under OpenAI Global LLC) are no longer governed by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI Inc.
* **Resolution in the Event of Restructuring, Merger, etc.**—If, through corporate restructuring, merger, acquisition, transfer of assets (including intellectual property) or by other means, all or a substantial portion of OpenAI's commercial operations are transferred to another entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of directors of OpenAI, this question would resolve "Yes".
* **Resolution in the Event of a Mass Departure of Staff to a Competitor or New Entity**—If within a 180-day period, more than 50% of employees of OpenAI Global LLC (or a successor entity that is still under the control of the nonprofit board) housing OpenAI's commercial activities become employees of another single entity that is not controlled by the nonprofit board of OpenAI Inc., this would be considered a substantial transfer of OpenAI's intellectual property, and this question would resolve "Yes".
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30071
|
Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?
|
This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), on or after December 31, 2024 Kalshi has a higher rank than the Wells Fargo Mobile App when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30070
|
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025?
|
Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/), have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.
The emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.
This evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:
An official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.
Confirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.
Detection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T13:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30069
|
Will Arkansas have 1 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[Drought conditions impact Little Rock businesses, locals](https://www.kark.com/news/local-news/drought-conditions-impact-little-rock-businesses-locals/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/arkansas) lists greater than or equal to 1 million Arkansas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30068
|
Will Kelsea Ballerini or Lainey Wilson win the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Kelsea Ballerini wins the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30067
|
Will Google have over a 90% global search engine market share, according to StatCounter, on December 31, 2024?
|
For further context particularly about Google's competition against Bing and its effect on market share please see [Bing vs Google: Search Engine Comparison 2024](https://www.impressiondigital.com/blog/bing-differ-google/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [StatCounter](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) lists Google has having ≥90.00% search engine market share worldwide when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024.
Fine Print: In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T21:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30066
|
Will either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken be announced as the successor to occupy JD Vance's Senate seat?
|
After his election as Vice President, Senator JD Vance will vacate his Senate seat by no later than January 20, 2025. Under Ohio law, his successor will be appointed by the governor. For further background please see: [Who will replace JD Vance in the U.S. Senate? Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine mulling pick](https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/07/who-will-replace-jd-vance-in-the-senate-mike-dewine-to-decide/76108856007/) | [How DeWine will choose Vance’s replacement to represent Ohio in U.S. Senate after VP election](https://www.daytondailynews.com/ohio/how-dewine-will-choose-vances-replacement-to-represent-ohio-in-us-senate-after-vp-election/67AOU3NB3JCRVMF6ZL5FSEDUWA/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken are announced as Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's choice to succeed JD Vance as US Senator from the state. If Governor DeWine chooses someone else or does not make his decision before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement of the appointment, not the swearing in or officially occupying the Senate seat.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30065
|
Will Lara Trump be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?
|
WHYY: [A guide to key figures in Donald Trump’s orbit](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-election-2024-white-house-elon-musk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Lara Trump is announced as having been offered a salaried federal position within the incoming Trump Administration. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Unpaid roles such as volunteer advisory positions will not count. Any salaried position will count, regardless of whether she is reported to actually accept the paychecks. This question resolves based on the announcement of her being picked for a role by the incoming Administration, not beginning her duties; therefore requirements such as Senate confirmation will not affect resolution.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T13:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30015
|
Will Warren Buffett be ranked in the top 5 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?
|
As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Warren Buffett is in 5th place or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: A tie will count as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30014
|
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for November 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Fine Print: The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.
If the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.
In the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as "Annulled". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)".
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30013
|
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for November 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.
Fine Print: The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.
If the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.
In the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as "Annulled". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)".
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T03:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30012
|
Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for November 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.
Fine Print: The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.
If the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.
In the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as "Annulled". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)".
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:22:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30011
|
Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for November 2024?
|
China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.
The new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.
The rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for November 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.
Fine Print: The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.
If the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.
In the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as "Annulled". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)".
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30010
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before January 1, 2025?
|
The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.
In April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):
>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
On April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):
>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.
>
>"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high," Rybar said.
>
>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 2, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.
Fine Print: * The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.
* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.
* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.
* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.
* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.
* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30009
|
Will Nebraska have 1.5 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[No improvement for ongoing drought in Omaha](https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/24/no-improvement-ongoing-drought-omaha/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/nebraska) lists greater than or equal to 1.5 million Nebraska residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1.5 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
Subsets and Splits
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