id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-30493 | Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump's favorability rating according to [538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) is greater than or equal to 4... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30492 | Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024? | CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are in... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30491 | On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
| This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the developmen... | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30476 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. In July 2024, Hezbollah [launched over 200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an... | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T19:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30464 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Providence, RI, has risen by ≥5.0% for November 2024. If this does... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30463 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Los Angeles, CA has risen by ≥2.0% for November 2024. If this does... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30462 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Observed Rent Index for Orlando, FL has risen by ≥1.0% for November 2024. If this does not... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30461 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Baltimore, MD has risen by ≥2.0% for November 2024. If t... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30460 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Dallas, TX has risen by ≥0.0% for November 2024. If this... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30459 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Zillow reports in its [Housing Data](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) resource page that its Zillow Home Value Index, Raw for Hartford, CT, has risen by ≥7.0% for November 2024. If th... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30458 | Will Florida Governor Ron Desantis refrain from naming the replacement for Marco Rubio's Senate seat before January 1, 2025? | [DeSantis aims to appoint Marco Rubio’s Senate replacement by early January](https://apnews.com/article/us-senate-florida-rubio-desantis-trump-appointment-49e3d490a298b64470c69d1892efc1b8)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Ron DeSantis has not named the successor to Marc... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30457 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000? | [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the m... | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T02:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30455 | Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2025? | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:20:00Z | no | METACULUS | |
meta-30410 | Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025? | As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this que... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-29T02:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30409 | Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program make it to 2025 without being cancelled? | Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS.
Unfortunately, since inception, this Boein... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30408 | Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be below 7.00% on December 31, 2024, according to Freddie Mac? | The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of November 22, 2024 was 6.84%.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage is less than 7.00% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metacu... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:47:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30407 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | [Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in Februar... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30406 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his al... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-04T00:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30404 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30403 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-24T16:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30379 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? (v2 working) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group
Resolution Criteria: from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29900/bitcoin-dominance-630-on-any-day-in-novdec-2024/ crosspost for Brown group | 2024-11-01T22:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T06:01:00Z | 2025-01-03T01:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30364 | Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024? | Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year"
Resolution Criteria: This question re... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-13T13:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30363 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 1, 2025?
| *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30362 | Will Alphabet/Google continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Eric Schmidt's return as CEO or as a member of its Board of Directors? | Eric Schmidt served as CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011 and was its board chairman from 2011 to 2015 and then chairman of Alphabet from 2015 to 2017.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Eric Schmidt has been announced as the next CEO of Google or Alphabet, or is listed as be... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:43:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30361 | Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024? | As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if according to [FRED's 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y), there is a negative value for December 27, 2024. If it is g... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T00:46:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30360 | Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance? | According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve ra... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T15:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30359 | Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before Jan 1, 2025? | As of November 20, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped November 14, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before Janu... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30358 | Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024? | According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in thei... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-20T21:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30357 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo ... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-18T13:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30356 | Will the Dairy Recall Tracker maintained by the Center for Dairy Research show more than 1 recall for December 2024? | The question of dairy recalls has taken on particular importance in 2024, due to [HPAI bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Dairy Recall Tracker at [this link](https://www.cdr.wisc.edu/dairy-recall-tracker) lists more than... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T00:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30328 | Will WeWork continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without announcing Adam Neumann's return as CEO? | Adam Neumann co-founded WeWork in 2010 and served as its CEO until 2019.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if before January 1, 2025, Adam Neumann has been announced as the next CEO of WeWork. It also resolves as **No** if the company ceases operations. Otherwise this resolves as **Yes**.
Fine P... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30327 | Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on December 31, 2024, according to Forbes? | According to the resolution source: "Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires rankings tracks the daily ups and downs of the world’s richest people. The wealth-tracking platform provides ongoing updates on the net worth and ranking of each individual confirmed by Forbes to be a billionaire. The value of individuals’ public holdi... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30326 | Will iHeartMedia continuously operate through January 1, 2025, without filing for bankruptcy? | iHeartMedia, which runs more than 860 broadcast radio stations and offers programming and other services to the industry, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2019, and although it is earning positive operating income, the interest payments exceed the operating income and the firm will need to restructure that debt in a ... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30325 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://h... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-18T13:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30324 | Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere before 2025?
| Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30323 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet? | Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question ... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30322 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla? | Tesla is most recently listed in April 2024, with the blurb saying, "Has gutted its charging team in a new round of layoffs, CEO Elon Musk announced in an overnight email to executives."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech la... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30321 | Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/s... | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30297 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Nvidia has seen a meteoric rise in the past two years, with its stock growing more than threefold in 2023, a feat which is looking to repeat in 2024. Nvidia's rise can be [largely attributed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-06/nvidia-s-rise-to-3-trillion-fuels-jensanity-across-tech-world) to the rise of... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-29T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30295 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | [Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in Februar... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30286 | Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win the 2024 Golden Joystic... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T00:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30285 | Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2025? | *Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*
---
In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the exi... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30284 | Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024? | As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.
Resolution Criteria: This question r... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30283 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is less than 585 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes ... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T15:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30282 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs is greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on Dece... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T15:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30281 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active oil drilling rigs exceeds 590 on December 27, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T00:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30280 | Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | Amid negative operating income and a large debtload (and high interest payments), meme stock AMC has recently [refinanced](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/amc-theatres-refinancing-deal-2029-1235954760/) debt
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if AMC Entertainment Holdi... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30279 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Crimi... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T16:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30278 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Crimi... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T16:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30277 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Crimi... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T16:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30276 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.`
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the National Instant Crim... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T15:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30275 | Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024? | This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/184477082644631993... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30274 | Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025? | Following Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, speculation has intensified about the prospects for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office, though without specifying how.
Trump's recent interac... | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30252 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Andrea Bocelli, the renowned Italian tenor, [is scheduled](https://www.andreabocelli.com/?post_type=tour) to perform at Madison Square Garden in New York City on December 18 and 19, 2024. These performances are part of his annual Christmas tour, which typically features holiday classics alongside selections from his al... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-18T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T23:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30213 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-19T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-24T15:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30203 | Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton wins the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30202 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Marburg virus disease in a US resident before January 1, 2025? | According to CDC, "The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevent... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30201 | Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T23:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30200 | Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-28T23:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30199 | Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T10:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30198 | Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024? | According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were label... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T22:05:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30197 | Will iRobot file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | In January 2024, Amazon terminated its planned acquisition of iRobot due to regulatory opposition. At the time of this question, iRobot has had operating losses in the years ending January 2022, December 2022, December 2023, and is on a pace to have operating losses for the current fiscal year as well. It has also face... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30196 | Will Bausch Health, Inc., file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | Bausch Health sells pharmaceutical drugs and medical devices. Recently it [denied](https://ir.bauschhealth.com/news-releases/2024/07-24-2024) it was considering bankruptcy, calling such reports "unsubstantiated rumors."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bausch Health, Inc., files any petiti... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30195 | Will Nick Sirianni cease to be the Philadelphia Eagles head coach before January 1, 2025? | ClutchPoints: [Eagles fans want Nick Sirianni fired after bizarre calls](https://clutchpoints.com/eagles-news-fans-want-nick-sirianni-fired-bizarre-calls)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Nick Sirianni is no longer head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles according to [cre... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30194 | On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Nvidia is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by M... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30193 | On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Microsoft is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checke... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30192 | On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on December 30, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Met... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30190 | Will Microsoft stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft remains below $468.35 continuously through December... | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30124 | On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
| This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).
Cruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30123 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?
| As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not f... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30122 | Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:07:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30121 | Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30120 | Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30119 | Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30118 | Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30117 | Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:37:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30116 | Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T18:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30115 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic coll... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T12:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30114 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | [The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-13T13:34:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30113 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes,... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:08:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30112 | Will a country change its official name before Jan 1, 2025? | Changing a country’s name is relatively rare, typically motivated by political, historical, or national reconciliation reasons. The United Kingdom maintains [a list of such changes it has recognized](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/country-names/timeline-of-country-name-changes-in-hmg-use-1919-to-present) fo... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30111 | Will the USDA's Center for Veterinary Biologics grant a license for a highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 vaccine in dairy cattle before January 1, 2025? | According to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), HPAI has hit dairy cattle hard, with 473 [herds testing positive](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm), as of November 8, 2024. Mostly mild in cows (with most cows [reportedly](https... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T00:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30110 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | [Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies ... | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T13:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30074 | Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2025?
| After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30073 | Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024? | As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.
Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generall... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:39:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30072 | Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
| OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while min... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30071 | Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024? | This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/s... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30070 | Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025? | Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NP... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T13:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30069 | Will Arkansas have 1 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Drought conditions impact Little Rock businesses, locals](https://www.kark.com/news/local-news/drought-conditions-impact-little-rock-businesses-locals/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/arkansas) lists greater than or equal to 1 mi... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30068 | Will Kelsea Ballerini or Lainey Wilson win the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Kelsea Ballerini wins the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves ... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30067 | Will Google have over a 90% global search engine market share, according to StatCounter, on December 31, 2024? | For further context particularly about Google's competition against Bing and its effect on market share please see [Bing vs Google: Search Engine Comparison 2024](https://www.impressiondigital.com/blog/bing-differ-google/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [StatCounter](https://gs.statcounter.c... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T21:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30066 | Will either Matt Dolan or Jane Timken be announced as the successor to occupy JD Vance's Senate seat? | After his election as Vice President, Senator JD Vance will vacate his Senate seat by no later than January 20, 2025. Under Ohio law, his successor will be appointed by the governor. For further background please see: [Who will replace JD Vance in the U.S. Senate? Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine mulling pick](https://www.dispatc... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30065 | Will Lara Trump be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025? | WHYY: [A guide to key figures in Donald Trump’s orbit](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-election-2024-white-house-elon-musk/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Lara Trump is announced as having been offered a salaried federal position within the incoming Trump Administrat... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T13:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30015 | Will Warren Buffett be ranked in the top 5 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024? | As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B.
Resolution Criteria: This question r... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30014 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 19.0 for November 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30013 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 and less than or equal to 19.0 for November 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T03:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30012 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for November 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:22:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30011 | Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 17.0 for November 2024? | China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17perc... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30010 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before January 1, 2025? | The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-an... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30009 | Will Nebraska have 1.5 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [No improvement for ongoing drought in Omaha](https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/24/no-improvement-ongoing-drought-omaha/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/nebraska) lists greater than or equal to 1.5 million Nebraska residents in areas o... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
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