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2 | Subsequently, investors revised down the expected policy path after the June employment report and the Chairman's semiannual monetary policy testimony. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months driven by strong demand for workers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | One participant suggested that the economic projections would be more understandable if they were based on a common interest rate path. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The course of underlying inflation pressures was more difficult to gauge, however. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Core consumer price inflation continued to slow, and inflation expectations remained subdued over the closing months of 2003. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Core consumer inflation had moved lower, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Overall, research indicates that trade with developing economies in particular has slowed the rate of growth of import prices faced by industrialized countries, with estimates of the reduction ranging widely from 1/2 to 2 percentage points. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | For 1998, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1997 for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Another factor that has contributed to the swing toward current-account surplus among the non-industrialized nations in the past few years is the sharp rise in oil prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In short, rising commodity prices are a better signal of strengthening economic activity than of inflation at the consumer level. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | By the same token, the rate of price inflation was lower than had been reported, consistent with the findings of a number of studies of distortions in published price data. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As keen observers of local economies, the directors here and elsewhere contribute vitally to the formulation of monetary policy by offering important insights absent, by definition, from even the most careful analysis of aggregate data. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In addition, the dramatic advances in biotechnology are significantly increasing a broad range of productivity-expanding efforts in areas from agriculture to medicine. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | It is important to note, however, that although sound policy undoubtedly helped create the conditions for growth, macroeconomic policy cannot create growth itself. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Even with generous allowances for structural change, labor utilization would seem to be at a level that might eventually begin to put persistent and growing pressure on labor costs and prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | * * * As the transcripts of FOMC meetings attest, making monetary policy is an especially humbling activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Crude oil prices continued to rise, reaching record levels in nominal terms over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants also noted that unemployment insurance claims continued to run at a historically elevated level, but the proportion of laid-off workers who expected to be recalled was unusually large. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | According to the Taylor Rule, the federal funds rate should adjust over time to changes in utilization rates (the gap between actual and potential output or between the unemployment rate and NAIRU) and to changes in inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | M2 and M3 have posted very large gains in recent months, reflecting the effects of recent System easing actions on market interest rates and shifts of funds by households out of investments in equities and lower-rated corporate debt. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A discernable upcreep was apparent in survey measures of short- and, to a limited extent, long-term inflation expectations over recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | And we were actually quite concerned that growth was not sufficient to continue to bring the unemployment rate down. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | This aggregate growth-accounting framework forms the economic underpinning of key comprehensive productivity statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This supports the view that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy stance sufficiently accommodative to keep average inflation at 2 percent and thereby bolster the credibility of the Committee's new policy framework, facilitating the achievement of both maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | First, we must be mindful that an unexpected slowdown might occur in the growth of productivity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | What policy options exist to deal with the U.S. current account deficit? | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Core consumer inflation had moved lower, but overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Sub-par expansion over the next few quarters was expected to foster an appreciable further easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core consumer price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Looking ahead, reports from retailer contacts were somewhat mixed; many anticipated relatively depressed holiday sales and where possible were making efforts to limit buildups of holiday merchandise, while other retailers were confident that sales would be reasonably well maintained, albeit generally somewhat below levels or growth rates experienced in previous holiday seasons. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The uncertainty about the threshold unemployment rate also suggests a differing degree of intensity in the response of monetary policy to deviations of inflation and output to their respective targets. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Our goal of price stability was achieved by most analysts' definition by mid-2003. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Putting It All Together I would now like to step back and consider the relative contributions to the trade deficit of each of the explanations I have discussed, as shown in figure 6.7 To the extent that the contributions of these shocks are reasonably well measured by the macroeconomic model simulations, the most important message I draw from them is that no single factor constitutes a dominant explanation of the deterioration in the U.S. current account balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Fourth and finally, the statement codifies the key lesson from the Global Financial Crisis—that financial stability is necessary for the achievement of our statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Consumer prices jumped in October, as hurricane damage contributed to higher prices for food and energy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity does not pick up and if demographic projections for slow growth in working-age populations are borne out. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | If the prices are wrong -- built on the base on an incorrect view of the economy or Federal Reserve intentions -- we will prove them wrong and provide an anchor for the market to adjust to. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some members expressed a concern that in this context any further adverse shocks could have disproportionate effects, resulting in a significant slowing in growth going forward. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In the residential real estate sector, home sales, prices, and construction had shown signs of stabilization in many areas and were increasing modestly in others, but a still-sizable inventory of unsold existing homes continued to restrain homebuilding. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In contrast, Robert Lucas and others reached more dramatic conclusions, arguing that only unpredictable movements in monetary policy can affect the real economy and concluding that policy has no capacity to smooth the business cycle (Lucas, 1972; Sargent and Wallace, 1975). | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued; that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends; and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | For example, although a number of features of Brazilian law promote the independence of the nation's central bank, the bank's de facto independence may be limited by the power of the president to remove members of the Monetary Policy Committee. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | These forecasts and forward guidance had a significant effect on raising market interest rates, even though we did nothing with our primary policy tool, the federal funds rate, in December 2021. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The persistence of that into, into inflation over time is just not there. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The pace of inventory liquidation was thought likely to moderate in coming quarters and subsequently turn to accumulation as inventories came into better balance with sales, with increasingly positive implications for overall production and economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | This paper develops and estimates a habit persistence consumption asset pricing model in which the sign of the equilibrium covariance between equity and bond returns depends on the reduced-form correlation between inflation and the output gap, the correlation between the federal funds rate and the output gap, as well as the equilibrium persistence of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Here in the United States, my colleague Governor Mike Kelley has stated that we are likely to see some disruptions to economic activity because of Year 2000 problems but the effects are likely to be temporary and quickly reversed. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Under this interpretation, the lower line in the bottom panel of Figure 1 is an estimate of market inflation expectations over the next five years, and the upper line represents five-year forward expectations of inflation, that is, today's expectation of what average inflation will be between 2009 and 2014. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters, but they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But this belief will persist only as long as we on the Federal Open Market Committee continue to ratify the public’s expectations that inflation will remain low and stable. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | As Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from "flexible inflation targeting" to a "flexible form of average inflation targeting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocks—prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Such forces can also cause short-term fluctuations in the economy that are, at least in part, beyond the control of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | We have not focused on whether we meet the liftoff test, because we don’t meet the liftoff test now because we’re not at maximum employment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nonetheless, with fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff anticipated that real GDP growth would not materially exceed increases in potential output in 2013. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The forecast for headline inflation was in the same range as that for core inflation in 2008 and 2009, reflecting expectations that energy prices would level off and then turn down and that increases in food prices would slow to a pace more in line with core inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Critical though this issue is, it does not by itself capture the importance of productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On average, over the period from November 2020 to January 2021, the fraction of prime-age women with children aged 6 to 17 who were out of the labor force for caregiving had increased by 2.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while for men the fraction had increased by about 0.6 percentage point.5 If not soon reversed, the decline in the participation rate for prime‑age women could have scarring effects, with longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth.6 Roughly 90 percent of the shortfall in private payroll employment relative to the pre-COVID level is concentrated in service-providing industries, with half of these service job losses in leisure and hospitality. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | But, really, it isn’t monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But it’s not easy to get a clear read on the implications of asset prices for the overall outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members commented that the continued strong increases in energy and other commodity prices would prompt a difficult adjustment process involving both lower growth and higher rates of inflation in the near term. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Ellen Zentner, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the productivity boom that followed World War I, a chief technological innovation was the spread of electrification to the factory floor. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonfarm payroll employment continued to expand through July and the civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 4. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The U. S. trade deficit in goods and services widened substantially in January and February from its fourth-quarter average, with exports falling sharply and imports rising strongly. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | I did indicate that I do have concerns about the scope for monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But strong demand and a very tight labor market have also contributed to inflation pressures, and the FOMC can help alleviate those pressures by removing the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation that is no longer needed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | A few participants commented that both survey- and market-based measures of short-term inflation expectations were at historically high levels. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that readings on overall and core PCE inflation, measured on a 12-month change basis, had continued to run below the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The gains in employment over July and August were generally seen as larger than anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So it’s a serious economic problem for the United States, but it’s—it’s got underlying causes that are not related to monetary policy or to our response to the pandemic. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | At the moment, trend growth near full employment appears to be a reasonable prospect in the year ahead. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | So you’re talking about the inflation target, basically. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Consumer spending was projected to increase at a rate generally in line with the anticipated rise in disposable income; the favorable effects on household wealth of the advance that had occurred in stock prices and the ample availability of credit for most borrowers were expected to balance the damping effects of continuing consumer concerns about the adequacy of their savings, the security of their jobs, and the extent of their debt burdens. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At earlier stages of processing, the producer price index for core intermediate materials continued to decline through May, albeit at a slower pace than that seen at the end of 2008. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The significant decreases that had occurred in the prices of fuel oil and gasoline were a positive factor that would continue to bolster household spending for a while. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Misconceptions about Inflation Targeting I would like to turn now, briefly, to comment on a few key misconceptions about inflation targeting that have gained some currency in the public debate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Such departures of expectations from perfect rationality can be an important source of observed inflation dynamics. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These downside risks were seen as essentially counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its longer-run potential. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and—in the same sentence—that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members cited greater, albeit still occasional, indications of heightened worker demands in labor negotiations that likely were encouraged in part by ample job opportunities. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At the moment, trend growth near full employment appears to be a reasonable prospect in the year ahead. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Petroleum prices have been under particular pressure, reflecting not only stronger demand but also risks that supplies could be constrained by terrorism or political disruption. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Monetary Policy But it is monetary policy--and the Fed's principal monetary lever, the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves between depository institutions--that earns the Federal Reserve all that ink and airtime. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Although a spike in energy prices eroded real income growth in the second quarter, there were solid gains in wages and salaries. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Those participants saw substantial slack in resource utilization and hence continued to judge that inflation was likely to remain subdued over the medium term as the economy continued to recover. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
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