Split (2)

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2	So, you know, I can’t—all I can tell you is, we’ll be looking at weak global growth.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Subsequently, the expected future path of monetary policy dropped amid increasing concerns about the health of financial institutions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	No matter the near-term path of reducing accommodation, the FOMC must respond decisively to the data so as to maintain our credibility that we will bring down inflation.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And, in my judgment, we may have to rely more on measures other than apparent excess demand to get reliable indications of pending changes in inflationary pressures.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	While more moderate growth in consumer spending for durable goods seemed likely after an extended period of robust expansion, these favorable factors suggested that the risks of a different outcome were tilted in the direction of faster-than-projected expansion.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Members recognized that from the standpoint of the level of real short-term interest rates, monetary policy could already be deemed to be fairly restrictive.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	And that, I think, does raise, raise the risk that high inflation will be more persistent.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	It also affects stock prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Moreover, the variance of GDP growth markedly lessened as inflation tumbled from its double-digit high in the early 1980s.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	On the one hand, an inverted yield curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent years--reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases--could temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve as an indicator of future economic activity.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Nevertheless, a number of participants cited notable declines in survey measures of consumer confidence since the onset of financial turbulence in mid-summer, along with sharply higher oil prices, declines in house prices, and tighter underwriting standards for home equity loans and some types of consumer loans, as factors likely to restrain consumer spending going forward.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Over time, spot prices are inexorably drawn back to the long-term equilibrium price, as the balance between underlying supply and demand is restored.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	In these circumstances, the Committee believed that some further measured policy firming was likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, in the view of most members, the outlook for both economic activity and price pressures remained very uncertain, and thus the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Although some members noted that a case could be made that the risks to inflation were now somewhat skewed to the upside and those to sustainable economic growth perhaps to the downside, the most likely outcome remained one of stable prices and sustainable growth, and the Committee agreed that it should retain a balanced assessment of risks conditional on appropriate policy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Between the end of July and the FOMC's September meeting, we will get two employment and CPI reports with data for July and August.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	That's particularly important, because the lags in the effect of policy on economic activity and prices mean that policy decisions are necessarily based on a view of the likely path for the economy over several years, relative to the Federal Reserve's legislated objectives of maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Independence and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was established as an independent central bank--although, at the time, it was given no clear concept of its role in the conduct of monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, this shortfall partly reflected the earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports, and some participants pointed out that, by some measures, the most recent monthly inflation readings had firmed a bit.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Most participants remarked that the standard of "substantial further progress" had been met with regard to the Committee's price-stability goal or that it was likely to be met soon.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	During this time of reopening, we are likely to see some upward pressure on prices, and I’ll discuss why.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low,	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, meeting participants--the 7 members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC--submitted their assessments of real output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the target federal funds rate for each year from 2013 through 2015 and over the longer run, under each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	To cite a recent study, Faust and Wright (2007) show that real-time staff forecasts of inflation reliably outperform statistical benchmarks at all horizons and that this advantage is not solely the result of the staff's expertise at estimating near-term inflation rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	And, as I went into detail in Jackson Hole and won’t repeat all of that there, there are other ways in which we see underutilization—high levels that have come down only very marginally of part-time employment for economic—or involuntary part-time employment, perhaps some remaining shortfall of labor force participation as a result of cyclical factors.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside; moreover, slow growth left the recovery more vulnerable to negative shocks.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued; that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends; and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	With the economy at full employment and inflation far above target, we should signal that we are moving back to neutral at a fast pace based on the performance of the economy, and a 50-basis point hike would help do that.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Inflation expectations that currently appeared by various measures and survey results to be essentially flat or even to have declined a bit were reinforcing the factors holding down price increases.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	In these circumstances, the Committee believed that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured but noted that it would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Financing conditions in capital markets remained broadly accommodative, supported by low interest rates and high equity valuations.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Those indicators were mixed regarding the pace of economic activity within the manufacturing sector.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	It isn’t really just targeting the headline numbers, but it’s about taking all of those things into account in your thinking about what constitutes maximum employment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	For example, in the mid-1970s, just when the FOMC began to specify money growth targets, econometric estimates of M1 money demand relationships began to break down, predicting faster money growth than was actually observed.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The unemployment rate fell to 5.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	But—so I would just say that our—that there are many things that go in, as you know, to, to setting asset prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Of the 1,700 Washington employees, roughly 250 are Ph.D. economists, the majority of whom support the Board's monetary policy responsibilities.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If inflation remains higher during the course of 2022, then we may already have met that test by the time we reach liftoff.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The recent rebound in oil prices contributed to a strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the Brazilian real, and the Mexican peso.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	For example, we have used some of our work to look at interest rate risk and interest rate sensitivity and, you know, found generally that banks can also sustain a significant increase in long-term interest rates as well for a number of reasons, one of them being that higher interest rates increase their franchise value because it increases their net interest margin over time.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The technical measures we are undertaking do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy, which we continue to implement by adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Business contacts in a number of Districts noted an improvement in housing activity and a continued rise in house prices, although their reports showed that the pace of sales and construction varied across regions.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone, while still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Though widely anticipated even before the actions of October, the recession and retrenchment in employment that followed those actions resulted in pressures on the Federal Reserve to reverse course.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In fact, applying a formal regression analysis to the full sample from 1989 to 2002, we found a number fairly close to this one, namely, a stock price multiplier for monetary policy of about 4.7.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	But this is largely accounted for by a convergence of inflation rates.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Thus, knowing where productivity growth is headed is, in many respects, equivalent to foreseeing our economic destinies.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The Committee's accompanying statement noted that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Moving to such a system would require assigning monetary policy to the task of targeting exchange rates, and countries are free to do so if they wish.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Further out, TIPS-based inflation compensation 5 to 10 years ahead edged down slightly on net.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In each case, my own preferred approach is to take the other variable into account in performing our main job of dealing with inflation and unemployment but not to target asset prices (or exchange rates).	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Indeed, a number of members saw merit in the staff forecast that some further disinflation was a likely prospect in such circumstances.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	And, as I think all of us—having that expectation and that if the economy continued to progress along the lines that we expected and we continued to see the risks as balanced—do regard it as appropriate to gradually remove accommodation that’s in place by having several interest rate increases this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The European Central Bank (ECB) began operating on June 1, 1998, and assumed responsibility for monetary policy in the euro area on January 1, 1999.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the context of this discussion, many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	In the simplest version of his model, Bill assumed that the central bank could choose to specify its monetary policy actions in terms of a particular level of a monetary aggregate or a particular value of a short-term nominal interest rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Participants noted the considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of the output and unemployment gaps and the extent of their effects on prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Broad equity price indexes were higher over the intermeeting period, amid heightened volatility.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated; they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Price and capital controls, which might have been feasible a half century ago, would be very difficult to implement in today's more technologically advanced environment.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	The foreign exchange value of the dollar, which depreciated immediately following the FOMC's November announcement of further asset purchases, subsequently appreciated amid intensifying concerns about stresses in the euro area and some apparent reassessment by investors of the monetary policy outlook in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	The expansion of M3 picked up over September and October, reflecting a strong acceleration in its non-M2 component that was associated with strong inflows to institutional money market funds and stepped-up issuance of large time deposits to meet credit demands.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	While anecdotal reports suggested that softening was confined to only a few areas, the delayed effects of the drop in stock market prices and forecasts of slower employment and income growth suggested some moderation in housing activity at some point.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Indeed, a number of members saw merit in the staff forecast that some further disinflation was a likely prospect in such circumstances.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	The staff's outlook for inflation was broadly unchanged.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	This change has led many governments to be more willing to adopt institutional changes to improve central bank governance that have bolstered central bank credibility for maintaining low inflation.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	To some, the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from current levels of labor utilization.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Without the accompanying boost to productivity, our progress toward price stability might well have been marked by the social pressures that arose in many previous episodes of disinflation both here and abroad.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	To the extent the global economy is weak and the United States is strong, it’ll—we’ll wind up, you know, we’ll wind up exporting some of our demand through, through imports rather than having, having a lot of exports.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Some participants noted that communications about the appropriate path of policy would be a focus of market participants in the current environment and commented that it would be important to emphasize that the Committee's reaction function or commitment to its monetary policy framework had not changed.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	Instead, I would like to address a separate but not unrelated topic, the interaction of bank supervision and regulation with monetary policy, and how supervision and regulation might work to make monetary policy implementation more effective in the current environment, particularly as it relates to a bank's demand for reserves.2 But first, let me start with a brief take on the current economic outlook.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	Well, we—as a Committee, we do not desire inflation undershoots.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	too pessimistic on job creation and the decline in the unemployment rate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	After robust growth in the second quarter, M2 decelerated somewhat and M3 was about unchanged in July.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	I presented these estimates in my testimony to emphasize the continuing importance the profession attaches to NAIRU, the central tendency of current NAIRU estimates, and the absence of significant upward adjustments to estimates of trend growth.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	And as I mentioned, I think at the last press conference, estimates by the—by members of the Committee have moved down by a full percentage point since maybe 2012 as we’ve learned—as unemployment has dropped and inflation hasn’t really reacted.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A major concern that I have about the bubble-popping strategy, however, is that attempts to bring down stock prices by a significant amount using monetary policy are likely to have highly deleterious and unwanted side effects on the broader economy.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	A second question is whether moving in this direction would matter much for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Well, you know, if the economy were disappointing, we—you know, our actions wouldn’t purely be based on inflation, we would also take employment into account.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	Inflation is much too high, and I strongly believe that bringing inflation back to our target is a necessary condition for meeting the goals mandated by Congress of price stability and maximum employment on a sustainable basis.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	While recognizing the value of smoothing, I still feel that in the interest rate targeting regime the Fed now uses, we should at times be ready to change interest rates quite quickly in response to economic conditions.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Although in a number of sectors of the economy the imbalances between demand and supplyâ€”including labor supplyâ€”are substantial, I do continue to judge that these imbalances are likely to dissipate over time as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation, wage gains adjusted for productivity, and the 2 percent longer-run inflation objective.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
0	An unexpectedly sharp increase in wages or inflation could tell you that you’re reaching those points.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
0	A discernable upcreep was apparent in survey measures of short- and, to a limited extent, long-term inflation expectations over recent months.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	As a consequence of these higher real interest rates, the ratio of net worth to income for the average household is already lower than it was earlier this year.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
0	Under these circumstances, policymakers must be cognizant of the shortcomings of our published price indexes to avoid misguided actions that will provoke unintended consequences.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	Credit conditions in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector continued to ease, and growth in CRE loans at banks stayed solid.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In view of the most recent information on the economy, members agreed that it was appropriate for the post-meeting statement to characterize economic growth as apparently continuing to moderate.	The Federal Reserve is dovish.
2	In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate.	The Federal Reserve is hawkish.
2	Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, held down in part by the effects of declines in energy and non-energy import prices.	The Federal Reserve is neutral.
2	If this high-pressure management inadvertently carried the economy beyond its productive potential, some cost in terms of inflation could be expected,	The Federal Reserve is dovish.

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