label int64 0 2 | premise stringlengths 13 1.25k | hypothesis stringclasses 3
values |
|---|---|---|
2 | Some of the increase in sentiment and changes in asset prices could be tied to expectations of more expansive fiscal policy, another upside risk. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Following the deepest plunge since the Great Depression, employment and activity rebounded faster and more sharply than anticipated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Looking ahead, an abatement or reversal of some of the temporary factors reducing prices was likely to raise measured inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In their comments about the external sector of the economy, members referred to indications of strengthening economic activity abroad that in conjunction with a weaker dollar was fostering some improvement in exports. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The guidance on asset purchases, introduced in December, commits us to increasing our holdings of securities at least at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In the real world, there are two reasons why central bankers still prize credibility, even if it cannot be shown to reduce the costs of disinflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | But I have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the United States in recent years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Many observed, however, that a favorable outcome to the hostilities in the Middle East and lower oil prices in line with quotations in futures markets should generate a positive response in equity markets, boost consumer sentiment, and foster a rebound in consumer spending as the year progressed. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | But again, in terms of terminology, I guess I would reject that term for the Federal Reserve because we are going to be evenhanded in treating the price stability and maximum employment parts of our mandate on a level footing. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Experienced loan officers who are well acquainted with their markets can channel funds into the loans that are most likely to create wealth and growth in the local economy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Without the oil shock, policymakers beginning from a period of low interest rates would try to keep the economy on an even growth path as they gradually raised nominal interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | payroll employment posted solid gains, and, on balance, a range of labor market indicators suggested that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Business contacts in a number of Districts noted an improvement in housing activity and a continued rise in house prices, although their reports showed that the pace of sales and construction varied across regions. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that real GDP growth would pick up only gradually in 2012 and 2013, supported by accommodative monetary policy, easing credit conditions, and improvements in consumer and business sentiment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In particular, incoming data and anecdotal information indicated that economic activity had appreciably more forward momentum than previously perceived and that inflation pressures could be intensifying. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Members also agreed that their evaluation of progress on their objectives would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, although several participants noted that the recent firming in crude oil prices had led to a modest increase in drilling activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If a range is selected, questions will arise about the differing implications of movements of inflation inside the range and outside the range and, in the absence of explicitly identifying the mid-point as the target, about where within the range policymakers would prefer inflation to gravitate. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | For example, Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2003) have used modern financial theory to construct a model of the Treasury yield curve that closely links the behavior of real GDP and a few key interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases, and that also provided unprecedented information about our po... | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The external sector was expected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Indeed, most anticipated that inflation will slow for a time to rates somewhat lower than those they judge consistent with the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, initially reflecting the recent declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and later responding to several years of substantial... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | With inflation much higher than the federal funds rate, the real federal funds rate is negative, even after our rate increases this year. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Those few members who expressed a preference for easing at this meeting believed that, with unit labor costs and inflation expectations contained, enough evidence of further weakness already existed to warrant an immediate action. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Many noted that the slowdown could be a temporary aberration and that other labor market indicators--such as new claims for unemployment insurance, the rate of job openings, and readings on consumers' perceptions of the labor market--remained positive. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, in the past two decades, what constitutes money has been obscured by the introduction of technologies that have facilitated the proliferation of financial products and have altered the empirical relationship between economic activity and what we define as money, and in doing so has inhibited the keying of mone... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Later I shall turn to concerns about imbalances in equity prices, the personal saving rate, the current account, and the household debt burden. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A number of commodity price indexes have indeed risen sharply over the past couple of years, including a large jump in the past several months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | As a monetary policy maker, I am interested in these links because the prices of financial assets affect the spending decisions of firms and households and because these prices may reveal forward-looking information relevant for setting policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The large current account deficit was seen as a factor pointing to potential depreciation of the dollar over time, with adverse repercussions on domestic inflation albeit favorable effects on exports. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity does not pick up and if demographic projections for slow growth in working-age populations ... | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And it is not—it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations cou... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | To the extent that the combination of a low neutral rate, a flat Phillips curve, and low underlying inflation may lead financial imbalances to become more tightly linked to the business cycle, it is important to use tools other than monetary policy to temper the financial cycle. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Martin Baily and Robert Lawrence (2004) present a much more thorough analysis of this issue and come to a similar conclusion.4 To investigate further the relationship between restructuring and labor productivity, we compared the performance of industry employment to the performance of industry productivity for the peri... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | M2 expanded in February, however, as liquid deposits resumed their growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members still saw the economic expansion continuing, and most believed that inflation was likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward levels they consider more consistent with the Committee's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | But I want to emphasize that we do have a commitment to raising inflation to 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The second point that I made was that when short-term interest rates hit zero, the tools of a central bank are no longer—are not exhausted, there are still other things that the central bank can do to create additional accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | However, indicators of economic activity in Japan and Brazil remained weak. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | You know, monetary policy is a forward-looking exercise, and I’m going to—I’m just going to stick with that. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Largely as a consequence of rapidly expanding "new economy" investments, gains in productivity had occurred at remarkable rates in recent years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Business Caution As I discussed earlier, regression analysis suggests that the robust growth in profits and the comparatively modest recovery in capital expenditures leaves a good part of the extraordinary cash buildup unexplained. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | At this point, for me, it comes down to what the incoming data and other economic information will tell us about the outlook for inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | When long-term rates rise in response to a cyclical strengthening, it reflects, in large part, the expectation of higher short-term interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | I would note, by the way, that at the current moment, it doesn’t really matter whether we have one mandate or two, because we’re below our inflation target and we—unemployment is above where we’d like it to be. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | A soft labor market will keep a lid on the growth in the cost of employing workers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On the more positive side, there were no signs that the pace of productivity gains was currently leveling out and no evidence of rising longer-term inflation expectations. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Answering this question is central to our outlook for both of our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the price level with some precision. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The U.S. economy is in a good place, and we will continue to use our monetary policy tools to help keep it there. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The Committee also reiterated that it would continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Additionally, by depressing perceived rates of return abroad, the weakness in foreign demand explains a considerable portion of the run-up in the dollar, as shown in figure 4. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent with any set of relative social weights on inflation and unemployment; the approach can be applied equally well by "inflat... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | There was also a sharp acceleration in productivity over 1997, which held down unit labor costs. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had picked up, while business fixed investment had continued to grow strongly. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Inflation continued to climb in June, reaching 9.1 percent as measured by the consumer price index. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | in particular, the Fed's loss of credibility significantly increased the cost of achieving disinflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Recent data, supported by anecdotal reports from several though not all parts of the country, suggested that residential building activity was slowing somewhat, apparently in lagged response to earlier increases in mortgage interest rates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Several commented that an asymmetric directive did not imply a commitment to tighten monetary policy at some point, whether during the intermeeting period or at a future meeting, but it did imply the need for special vigilance. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The reduced-form price equations we so often use for inflation prediction bypass direct contact with labor compensation issues. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Mishkin and Jonas (forthcoming) describe the experiences of the three transition economies with inflation targets. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Today a rise in oil prices has mixed effects on the economy, lowering real household incomes and thus demand, but raising investment in drilling over time and benefiting oil-producing areas more generally. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Participants also observed that crude oil prices fell over the intermeeting period and other commodity prices also moderated, developments that were likely to damp headline inflation at the consumer level going forward. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In Japan, consumer prices were about unchanged, | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices, had remained near 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior; another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Central bank actions are designed in the first instance to influence asset prices and yields, which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | On this path, unemployment would decline modestly below current estimates of the natural rate and remain there for some time. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | M2 growth dropped in the second quarter and remained modest in July, consistent with moderating growth of nominal income and rising opportunity cost. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | As its name implies, this rule does not prescribe a particular level of the federal funds rate at a given time but rather how the existing rate should change from quarter to quarter based on two gaps--the difference between inflation and its desired level as well as the difference between the unemployment rate and its ... | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework we adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 FOMC meeting.3 In our new framework, we aim for inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | In part, the high inflation reflects supply chain disruptions associated with the economic effects of the pandemic and efforts made to contain it. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In other cases, it’s pretty clear that inflation has spread more broadly across services. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Members expected to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until those outcomes were achieved. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | From a low near $30 per barrel in late 2003, the price of oil rose to $70 per barrel by the middle of 2006, and it has stayed high, with the current price more than $80. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The first question is whether the degree of easing implemented in response to financial market turbulence and the abrupt downward revision in the forecast should be reassessed in light of the subsequent improvement in financial conditions and the continued robustness of domestic demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | And what it is is, it’s an expression of the thinking about individual Committee members about appropriate monetary policy and the path of the economy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In these circumstances, an easing at some point of current uncertainties and strengthening confidence should induce inventory rebuilding, with positive implications, at least for a time, for the expansion of economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In contrast, blue-collar employment fell sharply in most of the other countries. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Another factor viewed as likely to exert a moderating effect on the growth of economic activity was the expectation of some slowing in inventory investment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | In addition, at every policy meeting, each member of the MPC is operating with the same information from the staff, and before the quarterly meetings that precede an Inflation Report, the members have sat through a number of discussions covering all aspects of the forecast. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The federal funds rate averaged a little higher than the level expected with an unchanged policy stance, in part because of unexpectedly high demand for reserves in late July and early August. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, a couple of participants noted that the recent oil price decline could also be associated with increasing oil supply rather than softening global demand. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | A commonly used analogy takes the U.S. economy to be an automobile, the FOMC to be the driver, and monetary policy actions to be taps on the accelerator or brake. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These members indicated that the economic outlook remained positive and that they anticipated, under an unchanged policy stance, continued strong labor market conditions and solid growth in activity, with inflation gradually moving up to the Committee's 2 percent objective. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to indicate expectations that inflation would decline notably in coming quarters, and measures of medium-term inflation compensation fell over the intermeeting period. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for further policy accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.