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0 | still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If the demand growth that caused the oil price increases is domestic, it could mean that the price shock might be less permanent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | As U.S. business investment has recently begun a cyclical recovery while residential investment has remained strong, the domestic saving shortfall has continued to widen, implying a rise in the current account deficit and increasing dependence of the United States on capital inflows.9 According to the story I have sketched thus far, events outside U.S. borders--such as the financial crises that induced emerging-market countries to switch from being international borrowers to international lenders--have played an important role in the evolution of the U.S. current account deficit, with transmission occurring primarily through endogenous changes in equity values, house prices, real interest rates, and the exchange value of the dollar. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In dissenting, Mr. Meyer noted that although the money growth ranges do not play an important role in the conduct of monetary policy today, Congress has mandated that the FOMC set and report ranges for money and credit growth. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Those developments included a recent uptick in core measures of consumer prices, a drop in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, and still elevated energy prices--all against the backdrop of longer-term inflation expectations that were firmly anchored. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In the United States, Congress has set the objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act, as amended in 1977. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In recent years, aggressive cost-cutting in the United States has been linked to greater emphasis on maximization of shareholder value and less on growth and diversification, which was more prominent in the 1970s and 1980s. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | forecasts of more moderate growth in aggregate demand at a pace around potential output had substantially reduced the odds on rising inflation, the risks still were pointed in that direction on balance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Some Reasons for the Decline in Far-Forward Rates Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Moreover, many members saw some risk that an easing move at this point might trigger a strong further advance in stock market prices that would not be justified on the basis of likely future earnings and could therefore lead to a relatively sharp and disruptive market adjustment later. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The expansion of M3 picked up over September and October, reflecting a strong acceleration in its non-M2 component that was associated with strong inflows to institutional money market funds and stepped-up issuance of large time deposits to meet credit demands. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Some participants noted that communications about the appropriate path of policy would be a focus of market participants in the current environment and commented that it would be important to emphasize that the Committee's reaction function or commitment to its monetary policy framework had not changed. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | A potential negative cited by some members was the possibility that a weak job market, should it persist, would at some point adversely affect overall consumer sentiment and willingness to spend. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The dominant force of late appears to have been a significant increase in the structural rate of productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had increased, or pointed to downward pressures from global or technology-related factors that could continue to suppress inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | However, as had been the case for many years, the members remained concerned that forecasts of money growth were still subject to a wide range of error in terms of the anticipated relationships between money growth and aggregate economic performance. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | If this policy succeeds ex post, inflation expectations become anchored at the new lower level of inflation, and policy can, then, respond to demand shocks by adjusting real rates pro-cyclically, the opposite of what is required when initial inflation is too high and inflation expectations are not anchored.13 Inflation will also be pro-cyclical with well-anchored inflation expectations if demand shocks dominate and inflation expectations remain anchored. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | A second economic rationale that is often advanced for the development of cities and that seems applicable to the Sioux Falls experience is that of labor market pooling--the ability of an industry to take advantage of a labor force possessing a specific set of skills, thereby raising productivity compared with competing areas with a more dispersed set of skills. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The price of a ton of cold rolled steel sheet, or a linear yard of cotton broad-woven fabrics, could be reasonably compared over a period of years. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Productivity Growth and Cost Reductions So, what happened? | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Though labor markets were expected to remain relatively tight for some time, the members saw little prospect that inflation would gather significant momentum in coming quarters. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In our most recent monetary policy statement—which was released following our January meeting—we indicated that "with inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market," we expected that it would "soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that real GDP growth would pick up only gradually in 2012 and 2013, supported by accommodative monetary policy, easing credit conditions, and improvements in consumer and business sentiment. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | So it’s a double whammy coming from higher gasoline prices. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | So you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy, and, as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth—for growth in the global economy outside the United States—and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, longer than had been indicated in recent FOMC statements. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Venezuela provides one counterexample, with a long-term inflation forecast now of 15 percent. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. " | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The presidents' reports often include anecdotal updates from businesses or other sources to provide real-time information on regional economic activity. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | It will be a while before we can be sure that a self-sustaining expansion is underway of sufficient strength and persistence to put the economy back on a path toward full employment. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | And, at a high level, yes, I would say, and I’ve said before, that it’s really fiscal policy that is more powerful and that has much more to do with—fiscal policy can do those things that will increase the longer-run growth rate of the United States by improving productivity and labor force September 18, 2019 participation and the skills and aptitudes of workers. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Moreover, substantial gains in productivity were muting the effects of rising labor compensation on unit costs, and vigorous competition in numerous markets was continuing to make it very difficult or impossible for business firms to raise their prices to cover rising costs or enhance profit margins. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | U. S. real GDP was forecast to plummet and the unemployment rate to soar in the second quarter of this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little, while labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising moderately so far this year. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The federal funds rate averaged a little higher than the level expected with an unchanged policy stance, in part because of unexpectedly high demand for reserves in late July and early August. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Over the 1994-2002 period, seven prominent inflation-targeting industrial countries had a mean inflation rate of consumer prices of 2.1 percent per year with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | At the time of our FOMC meeting in January, prospects for continued economic growth remained favorable, and we judged that monetary policy was well positioned to support that outlook. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Nonetheless, participants viewed the housing situation and its potential further effect on employment, income, and wealth as one of the major sources of downside risk to the economic outlook. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | The September FOMC meeting was the first since the Committee approved in August our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and adopted a new policy framework.3 The changes we made in our September FOMC statement bring our policy guidance in line with this new framework. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Stimulus checks put money in people's pockets, and when they spend it, there will be upward pressure on prices. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | "2 One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of "rational inattention. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | We want to see lower unemployment. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | While these studies allow for differences in the weighting of price indexes across different income groups, they rely on the same elementary price indexes for subcategories of goods and services. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The Committee took these actions to provide a somewhat more accommodative policy in response to muted inflation pressures and the risks to the outlook I mentioned earlier. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Although higher energy and other costs had the potential to add to inflation pressure, core inflation had been relatively low in the preceding few months and longer-term inflation expectations remained contained. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Nonetheless, the reported rise in employment of temporary workers in recent months could presage a broader increase in job growth and thus was a welcome development. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | When we reach maximum employment, when we reach a state where labor market conditions are at maximum employment in the Committee’s judgment, it’s very possible that the inflation test will already be met. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Core price inflation was projected to rise a little over the forecast horizon, in part as a result of higher import prices but largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The staff's forecast for inflation was basically unchanged from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | falling non-oil import prices likely subtracted 1/4 percentage point from the annual rate of core inflation.10 Finally, the trajectory of federal government debt relative to GDP and views regarding the debt's sustainability can also influence the effects of fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | In these models, each asset price contains a risk premium that represents the additional return demanded by risk-averse investors for bearing risk. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Broad U. S. stock price indexes declined, on net, over the intermeeting period, apparently in response to the downbeat economic data. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | The expansion of M2 had declined substantially since late spring, apparently in part as a result of the widening opportunity costs of holding assets in M2 stemming from higher market interest rates and possibly also from slackening growth in household incomes. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | However, in this framework, the current period appears to be an outlier.4 That is, even after factoring in the current-cycle dynamics of strong profit growth and relatively modest investment, a good part of the rise in liquid assets remains unaccounted for--as much as one half of the total rise in cash-to-assets--according to Federal Reserve staff estimates. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The stock market soared, and--remarkably enough--core inflation moderated. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | White-collar, high-skilled employment increased at a much faster rate than employment in the other categories in nearly all cases in the G-7 countries over 1979-95. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | By definition, this excess of U.S. payments to foreigners over payments received in a given period equals the U.S. current account deficit, which, as I have already noted, was $666 billion in 2004--close to the $617 billion by which the value of U.S. imports exceeded that of exports. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for further policy accommodation. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | What I have elsewhere referred to as "currency competition" may be a driving force behind these changes in inflation outcomes and expectations and may be reflected in low nominal long-term interest rates and the flattening of yield curves.5 I’d like to briefly review what I mean by currency competition. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | And it may generally take longer still for a policy change to alter the course of inflation. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | And what is the risk that, in taking such steps, a central bank would be seen by investors as taking on partial responsibility for asset prices? | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The Chairman testifies frequently before the Congress, with the one-year record being twenty-five appearances in 1995, although only seven were directly about monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | There is, to be sure, no trade-off and hence no inconsistency between full employment and price stability in the long run. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | However, we also believe now is a good time to step back and assess whether, and in what possible ways, we can refine our strategy, tools, and communication practices to achieve and maintain our goals as consistently and robustly as possible.2 With the U.S. economy operating at or close to maximum employment and price stability, now is an especially opportune time to conduct this review. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The economy continued to perform well into 2007, with solid growth through the third quarter and unemployment remaining near recent lows. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to leave the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances at 0. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the difficulties that we face in interpreting their movements, and, I hope, to stimulate further research in this already fertile field.1 At the Federal Reserve, we pay a lot of attention to financial market prices in the formulation of monetary policy. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | In other cases, it’s pretty clear that inflation has spread more broadly across services. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | During the first stage, the inflation rate would exceed the long-term desired inflation rate, as the price-level gap was eliminated and the effects of previous deflation undone. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Microeconomic studies provide corroborating information to the macroeconomic evidence of a post-1995 acceleration in productivity growth. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | So far this year, payroll employment had expanded at a faster pace than last year and the unemployment rate had declined further, although it remained elevated. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and some of the initiatives we have announced to support the flow of credit to households and firms during these challenging times. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained at or near 2 percent in recent months. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Indeed, the members did not rule out the emergence of appreciably lower inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | In contrast, the rise in oil prices during the 1970s was probably seen at the time as largely reflecting a permanent shift in global demand/supply balances. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | Many participants noted that they expected household spending to be a primary contributor to economic growth going forward. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
0 | Policy tightening started last year, as emerging markets including Mexico and Brazil increased rates substantially amid expectations of accelerating inflation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | The associated range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial sector debt was provisionally set at 3 to 7 percent for 1999. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Even so, most members viewed a slowing to a rate closer to most estimates of the growth of the economy's potential as a reasonable expectation. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
2 | The net effect could be steady, rising, or falling inflation--depending on whether productivity continues to accelerate and on how low the unemployment rate is driven in the process. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Some participants suggested that the persistently high level of unemployment reflected the impact of structural factors, including mismatches between the skills of the unemployed and the skills demanded in sectors in which jobs were currently available. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
0 | Participants generally expected that household demand would gradually strengthen over coming quarters in response to the rise in household wealth from the substantial increase in equity prices that had occurred over the intermeeting period as well as the support for income provided by fiscal policy. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | We indicated that, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Overall employment gains were relatively well maintained, and labor markets were still tight though showing signs of softening. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | Specifically, the projections converged on CPI inflation rates of 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in 1997 and 2-1/2 to 3 percent in 1998. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
0 | I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability. | The Federal Reserve is neutral. |
2 | Inflation is a significant challenge for everyone, but it hits lower- and moderate-income people the hardest, since they spend a larger share of their incomes on necessities and often have less savings to fall back on. | The Federal Reserve is dovish. |
2 | We found that a surprise increase of 25 basis points in the funds rate target typically results in a decline in broad equity indexes of about 1 percent, whereas a change in the funds rate that is expected by the market has essentially no effect on stock prices.17 Our work is just one example of a number of event-study analyses that may well shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the channels of monetary policy transmission. | The Federal Reserve is hawkish. |
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